🔗 Share this article

Residents like Rangsan Angda and his community in frontier regions of Thailand had made ready their belongings, worried that a truce with neighboring Cambodia would soon collapse.

The peace agreement – facilitated by a foreign leader who declared himself “President of PEACE” after playing a role in concluding five days of fatal fighting in July – had seemed precarious from the start. “Both sides are confronting one another all the time,” said Angda, 50.

On Sunday, the news he was anticipating with trepidation was broadcast on loudspeakers across his village, declaring that fighting had broken out once more. For the second instance in months, everyone was instructed to flee without delay. Families crowded into automobiles or sought transportation with local officials. For hours they lined up on jammed streets, making their way to makeshift shelters, educational institutions, and public offices.

More than 500,000 people across Cambodia and Thailand have been forced to travel in the same way since the clashes commenced on Sunday. No one knows when they will be able to return home, or how the most recent bout of violence might be halted.

The international mediator, who presided over the conclusion of an more robust peace deal in October, told reporters this week he would speak with the prime ministers of Thailand and Cambodia, saying he could stop the clashes “in short order”.

“I believe I can persuade them to cease hostilities. No one else has this ability,” the statesman said.

In the disputed zones of Thailand, few share his confidence. “Were he truly able to resolve the dispute there wouldn’t be this war right now,” said Patcharee Kotmakti, 45. She left her home on Monday, when the crackle of weapons first echoed across her village.

Just four months ago, clashes were so fierce that her house shook from the impact. “It's fair to state I've grown familiar with it,” she said.

She is concerned the fighting could continue for many weeks. “I won’t be able to make ends meet,” she said. Kotmakti and many of her neighbours have unstable wages and instead depend on daily work. “Some people who stay here don’t have money, they have to get into debt with high repayments.”

She just wanted the situation to end, she said. “Immediate resolution is best.”

The statesman has previously used the potential for economic sanctions to pressure Thailand and Cambodia to stop fighting. A regional analyst said this intervention was “critically important” in bringing an end to the earlier fighting. “Previously, Bangkok refused any external negotiation,” he added.

Whether the same effect can be achieved today is unclear. With an political contest in 2026, the Thai prime minister might choose to appeal to nationalist sentiment by insisting that Thailand had acted legitimately in safeguarding its borders. Doing so “might find support among large segments of Thais who view Cambodia as the party that instigated the crisis and the external actor as placing unfair demands,” the analyst said. “This is a moment when he cannot afford to appear soft.”

A survey in August found that more than half of those surveyed believed Thailand should not be linked to Cambodia. It also found many were doubtful about the external mediation efforts in the conflict. Almost two-thirds of respondents said such action was in the interest of the large nations, not Thailand. Fewer than 10% agreed such engagement was intended to establish calm.

At evacuation centers in Ubon Ratchathani, evacuees doubted the strong pronouncements of bringing peace. “That is his point of view,” said one older woman diplomatically.

But evacuees were in disagreement about what the Thai authorities should do next. A senior military official told media this week that the military aimed to crush Cambodia’s military capability, rendering it harmless in the long term.

“Each person has their own opinion,” said Rinda Metmat, 44. “I don’t want anyone to experience loss. I have sympathy for the military personnel, for their families and their children. Those in the opposing army have loved ones too. I think they are not eager for conflict.”

Some question whether talks can succeed, regardless of involvement by external parties. “This will not conclude no matter how many parties involved [in talks], two countries or with a third party, it’s not going to be resolved,” said Rangsan. “Talking never seems to lead to anywhere.”