Based on the average of the latest polls, with a model calibrated to the official 2026 district results.
Every poll published since the April 2026 election, regardless of pollster, on a single trend line.
Based on the average of the latest polls — the EP column shows the projection for the 2029 European Parliament election.
The polls don't agree: their TISZA figure ranges between 63% and 73%. That's why the numbers above are not points but ranges. The intervals below come from 1000 simulated elections, each of which is a complete, internally consistent result — so the parties always move at each other's expense, never all downward at once.
Pick a party and a seat target — the engine works backwards to find the smallest vote share needed for it. The other parties' proportions relative to one another stay unchanged. Only parties that the simulations show realistically entering parliament are listed.
two-thirds (constitutional majority)
Calibrated to the real 2026 results of the 106 constituencies: it converts the national percentages you enter into a per-district swing. It only affects this section — the rest of the page shows the average of the latest polls.
Domestic vote share — the same base the polls measure. The model only counts independent candidates for the exact official 2026 result; for other figures we can't know whether they would run again.
Votes = register × turnout. A preferential seat is granted from the quarter quota upward.
With the same figures above, in a purely proportional, 21-seat list system with a 5% threshold — it follows the calculator live.
Click the parties and see which alliances would produce a majority or two-thirds, based on the average of the latest polls.
The same vote shares, computed under twelve different allocation rules.
| Party / Minority | Hungarian (HU) | Simulated | +/- |
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Thirty statements on the most important political fault lines in Hungary. At the end we show which political tendency you stand closest to, and where you sit relative to the parties.
The model starts not from estimates but from real data: its basis is the official, final 2026 vote counts of the 106 single-member constituencies. Onto this it projects the weighted average of the latest polls, district by district. Its best self-check is reality itself: if we enter the exact 2026 figures, the model returns exactly the real 141 / 52 / 6 seat allocation.
* The simulation is a mathematical estimate, not a prediction. The actual result can be meaningfully affected by mobilisation, undecided voters' last-minute choices and local tactical voting. These polls also come from the post-election period, when support is typically still shifting. The coalition builder, the electoral-systems simulator and the "Results and seats" table always show the average of the latest polls; the calculator, by contrast, lives independently within its own section.
The opinion polls and earlier analyses from the pre-election campaign period are kept as an archive on the original site: Választási Monitor (pre-2026).
If you're curious about the reality behind the numbers, try the salary calculator too: work out your net pay and see on a map where your money is worth the most.
Have a question or a comment about the model? Feel free to write.
This project was created to analyse the Hungarian electoral system and to visualise different scenarios. If you have a comment about the model, or would like to share your thoughts, don't hesitate to reach out via the channels below. The electoral data and the methodology are updated continuously. My goal is to present an objective, independent picture of Hungary's electoral processes, drawing on every available and relevant piece of data. The model combines the latest polling trends with historical constituency data, ensuring that the simulation is not just a snapshot but a well-grounded projection.