Investing in higher-order systems, delivering higher-order value.
We understand how change happens — its processes, its nature, its systemic implications and value drivers. And we believe the key to successful investing lies in understanding change.
About us
We are an investment fund
led by veteran macro investor Robert Gibbins and
technology visionary, Tony Seba.
We apply our proven phase change investment framework to understand — and invest in — the technological drivers of higher-order systems.
We believe that disruptive technologies — governed by knowable and predictable cost curves — are systemic in nature, as they affect foundational sectors such as computation, energy, transport, food and materials. These technologies are all poised for significant disruption and transformation within this decade, with far-reaching repercussions. We consider this the macro ground zero. Our mission is to navigate and capitalise on these disruptions in a focused and disciplined manner.
We dedicate a significant part of our process to identifying the right questions to ask. A well-structured process built around misguided questions is ultimately futile — which is why, although most investment managers claim to follow rigorous processes, few consistently deliver value. What are the characteristics of the new, emergent systems? Which companies have the capacity to embody and develop them? We aim to ask questions that reflect the complex nature of systemic transformation — not those rooted in superficial or linear thinking, which cannot deliver meaningful results.
We are bilingual in systems thinking — fluent in the dynamics of both lower- and higher-order systems. We have a deep understanding of incumbent system structures and can identify the foundations and drivers of higher-order transformations.
Applying first-principles thinking, grounded in macro and price data, we form convictions based on what is already demonstrably true — not on prevailing investment narratives. This discipline allows us to prioritise investment performance and fully align with investor interests.
We are a multidisciplinary team of seasoned investors, analysts and operational professionals, working closely together from idea generation through to execution. We believe collaboration drives the strongest outcomes — particularly as we seek to uncover opportunities across interconnected macro themes. We do not operate in silos, where the ability to recognise interdependencies between transforming systems — and the investment potential they hold — is often lost.
What we do
We invest in the systemic implications of tech-driven disruption and transformation
We invest in mispriced assets that are fundamental to higher-order systems in energy, transportation, it, intelligence, food and labour — and take positions against those facing imminent obsolescence.
Our proven investment framework anticipates the impact of phase change — a brief, disruptive period when emerging technologies converge to transform industries and societies from lower- to higher-order systems.
Transformations are not linear. Smarter, cheaper, faster and more scalable technologies converge to create new market realities — with systemic, nonlinear implications.
The combustion engine, the internet, the smartphone — each ignited more than innovation. They redefined entire economies. Most underestimated the speed, scale and nature of the change — and the ripple effects across markets, economies and society. We do not.
We only act when we have conviction on timing. Often, the best moment to invest is after a transformation has already occurred — but before the market narrative recognises it as such. We are not futurists. Our focus is on describing the present macro context in ways that unlock meaningful investment outcomes.
We believe that the secret to successful investing is understanding change. We understand change:
The processes of change
How change happens; when it happens; the drivers of change
The processes of change
How change happens; when it happens; the drivers of change
The nature of change
Systems transformations vs incremental transitions
The nature of change
Systems transformations vs incremental transitions
The systemic implications of change
Linear vs nonlinear; levels of change: tech, product, sector, economy or society
The systemic implications of change
Linear vs nonlinear; levels of change: tech, product, sector, economy or society
The value drivers of change
How value is created and destroyed
The value drivers of change
How value is created and destroyed
Approach
In every phase change, new value systems are born.
Previous phase changes — from the invention of the steam engine and the combustion engine to the internet, the smartphone, drones and large language models — have driven, and are driving, vastly different transformations toward higher-order systems. At the time, many recognised these as important innovations. But few could have predicted the scale of systems transformation or the systemic impact on global value chains that followed.
Approach
In every phase change, new value systems are born.
Previous phase changes — from the invention of the steam engine and the combustion engine to the internet, the smartphone, drones and large language models — have driven, and are driving, vastly different transformations toward higher-order systems. At the time, many recognised these as important innovations. But few could have predicted the scale of systems transformation or the systemic impact on global value chains that followed.
insights
