Things are going wrong
TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday
I agree with Ken Paxton
In 2024 one of the key indicators that Donald Trump was going to win the presidency was his lead on the economy/the cost of living crisis that as the incumbents the Democrats was so damaging. This poll now has Americans saying the Biden economy was better than the Trump economy is going to annoy Trump bigly, ot also makes me think those polls with the Dems with massive leads in the generic polling is right. As for Ken Paxton, nothing…
We’re going to need a bigger swingometer in November
The figure that stands out for me is that amongst women the Dems lead by 23%. TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday.
The public want proportional representation
This long standing polling from YouGov shows Andy Burnham’s proposal yesterday will be received well by the public, the next general election could be the last conducted under the first past the post system and that has huge ramifications for political betting. TSE
Some reactions to Andy Burnham’s speech
I am currently on holiday and have not watched the speech by the Prime Minister so I am going on vibes and I have to praise Andy Burnham for taking action on the triple lock although it could lead to unpopularity for him as per Nigel Farage’s attack lines. For those who get positively tumescent at the prospect of electoral reform today’s news is welcome and should solidify Lib Dem tactical votes for Labour. TSE
This is a very bold strategy from Ken Paxton
Every time I convince myself that the polls are wrong about James Talarico winning the Texas senate seat up pops Ken Paxton reminding us all why he is such an awful human being and why his own party tried to impeach him and why the polls are right. If you’re not aware of the story you can click on this link. As the community notes observes the reality is that Paxton asked for one day and the judge rejected that….
Welcome to PB Predictions!
So… Nate Silver has his FLIPR. We have PB Predictions. And here’s where it’s different. In his case, there’s his model and his probabilties. In our case, you get to enter your own assumptions, and see what it throws out! Set swings by demographic group, decide how important money is, or incumbency, and how much weight to put on local (versus national) polling. It gets better. This is your prediction – with your views on candidate strength, how accurate polls…
Fine, fine margins
The above are selected posts from a longer thread from a newly published MRP by More in Common, the ones I have selected is to show how finely balanced things are. I have mentioned previously that is eminently possible for a party to win a stonking majority on circa 25% of the vote this shows how that could play out, the next general election could be decided by the barest of all margins. TSE Site notice – I am currently…