The Wild Forgot To Pause Auto-Renew On Guerin's Contract

The Minnesota Wild’s shortened training camp is underway, and they’ve paid almost everyone. The Wild extended John Hynes and his staff, and they’ve tacked on a couple more years to Bill Guerin’s contract. However, one person is still in the final year of his contract.

Quinn Hughes.

Hughes feels important. Without him, the Wild are still a bubble team with Kirill Kaprizov on a $17 million contract. They’d still have Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Brock Faber on team-friendly deals, having signed him before the NHL’s cap spike. However, they still lack a No. 1 center and four viable top-4 defensemen beyond this year, and their expensive penalty kill is league-average.

Minnesota was always going to extend Guerin. He won GM of the year last season, and the Wild advanced to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2014-15. They just forgot to pause auto-renew until he extended Hughes. Minnesota’s ownership group has prioritized stability after Paul Fenton’s turbulent 14-month tenure. However, they’ve often done so while ignoring front-office turmoil and on-ice results.

They should have held off extending Guerin because the outcome of the Hughes negotiation should determine his next contract. They should have had one if Guerin re-signed Hughes, and one if they have to trade him this year. 

If the Wild had re-signed Hughes, they should have matched Guerin’s contract to Hughes’ extension. Minnesota still needs a No. 1 center for Kaprizov’s line, and a Jared Spurgeon replacement for when the 36-year-old defenseman’s play inevitably declines. They must also improve their penalty kill, which remains average despite spending ample resources on grinders like Marcus Foligno, Michael McCarron, and Ryan Hartman – a middle-six swingman they’ve stretched into a No. 1 center.

Suppose Guerin trades for Dylan Larkin without giving up too much NHL talent, a quixotic task given their lack of draft capital. Meanwhile, Daemon Hunt develops into a viable second-pair defenseman, and Hynes somehow fixes the penalty kill. That would lead to a best-case scenario where the Wild build a contending roster and take the next step after the Colorado Avalanche routed them in the playoffs last year. As a result, Jack Hughes loves the situation in Minnesota and joins his brother when his contract expires in four years.

In that scenario, Wild ownership should see the team’s momentum and have enough time to extend Guerin again, removing the possibility that he bolts before Hughes’ contract expires in New Jersey. That’s likely the scenario Minnesota envisioned when extending Guerin this offseason. However, they shouldn’t treat it as inevitable.

Hughes could choose to enter next season on an expiring deal. In that case, Guerin would either have to find a trade for him, or gamble and negotiate with Hughes when he’s an unrestricted free agent next offseason. 

Consider that Guerin traded for Calen Addison and David Jiricek, neither of whom panned out, and he got little in return. The Wild got Adam Raska and a fifth-round pick for Addison, and Bobby Brink for Jiricek. Raska played five games in Minnesota and registered zero points. The Wild didn’t play Brink in the playoffs and signed him to a one-year, sub-arbitration deal in the offseason.

Guerin’s asset management has created a meaningful opportunity cost for the Wild. He could have extended Kirill Kaprizov for eight years, $9 million on his first extension, creating $8 million in cap room. Had he not traded for Jiricek, he’d have their 2025 first-round pick, third- and fourth-round picks, and a 2027 second-rounder as ammo to trade for a No. 1 center. 

The Wild could have floated those assets and one young NHL player to the New Jersey Devils for Jack Hughes, whose $8 million salary would have dovetailed into Minnesota’s cap situation. Or they could have tried for Dylan Larkin or a top-4 defenseman who had established himself in the NHL. 

Regardless, Hughes may still re-sign. He’s probably waiting for Guerin to offer him a three-year, $20 million contract. Cale Makar signed for a $20 million average annual salary, and that’s what Hughes is worth per year. That feels pretty straightforward, which makes it perplexing that he hasn’t signed it yet. 

Hughes has said he wasn’t concerned about the new collective-bargaining agreement kicking in, which reduces the potential term on his contract from seven to eight years. He likely isn’t signing long-term with the Wild because they don’t have all the components of a Stanley Cup-winning team, so that never should have been a serious consideration. Hughes probably wants empirical proof that they can be more than a fringe contender before committing long-term and trying to bring his brother over. 

He’s doing the right thing. He has all the leverage, and Minnesota’s only chance of winning a championship this year would require putting Kaprizov and Boldy on the same line as a second-line center, and hoping the defense and goaltending carry them through the playoffs. 

It’s the result of Guerin’s lack of planning and foresight. During Minnesota’s cap penalties when they didn’t have a chance to contend, he should have turned the team over to young players and tanked for a No. 1 center and Spurgeon's long-term replacement. They would have had better draft picks, who could have developed into cost-effective bottom-six players. In this scenario, they would have given their prospects more ice time to develop and tap into their upside.

Instead, Guerin has always acted shortsighted, prioritizing immediate results over long-term vision, even though the Wild have extended him every time his contract was up. They promoted him to team president in 2023 before they won a playoff game, and now they’ve extended him before he signed Hughes. 

Minnesota has always bought into Bill Guerin because of his name, not the results. He’s acted accordingly – leaning on ego and instinct instead of patiently planning. As a result, the Wild are on the fringe of contending without a clear path to becoming one of the league’s best teams. They’ve always wished for the best outcome, rather than using logic when extending Guerin. Now, they are relying on hope rather than a contending roster to win the Stanley Cup during his tenure.