Through the decades, various new technologies have challenged the existence of Learning Management Systems (LMSs). None have managed to unseat the incumbent technology, and there are no early indicators that Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools will have a significant impact on the number of LMSs in use. Market shifts continue to be slow and gradual with Instructure’s Canvas and D2L’s Brightspace showing sustained increases while Blackboard’s Learn and Moodle experience gradual decline. Sakai is now all but nonexistent.

Two trends will impact near-to-mid term LMS adoption. First, US colleges and universities continue to close and consolidate. These changes are reflected in various ways in IPEDS data but ultimately manifest themselves in renegotiated LMS contracts and consolidation of legacy or abandoned LMSs. Second, Instructure’s recent and significant security situation is likely to trigger re-evaluations of LMS technologies and related organizational continuity planning. Instructure’s growth continues at pace; however, they are not the winner of every new implementation, and the company has recently lost a small number of institutions to competitors.

One longer-term trend may also impact the higher education LMS market. Described as the enrollment cliff, this demographic trend will see a decline in college-aged high school graduates that will continue though the next decade. This combined with declining public perception of higher education may result in significantly fewer students in future years. For software that is largely priced per-enrollment, this could result in unavoidable declines.