1"use strict";(self.webpackChunk_N_E=self.webpackChunk_N_E||[]).push([[481],{18481:(e,t,a)=>{a.d(t,{J0:()=>u,CE:()=>m,JU:()=>p,J6:()=>b,eW:()=>v,Vl:()=>f});var n,i=a(37068),o=a(96108),r=a(69319);let s={"Cohort convened in Reykjav\xedk":"Convening is the enabling move. In the counterfactual model none of the downstream channels exist without these specific 23 people in one place for two weeks â so across nearly every coalition ordering, adding the convening step contributes the largest marginal value. That's why the biggest slice sits at the very start of the chain.","12 days of working sessions":"The sessions are what turned co-presence into output: the IE design principles and robustness metrics that the 22 works build on were drafted here. Strong marginal contribution â but it only pays off in coalitions where the cohort is already assembled, which caps its share below the convening step.","22 works â thinking pieces & IERR artifact":"This is the most direct causal channel to the outcomes: the GG24 Deep Funding forum drew on these thinking pieces, and the IERR artifact (Sharfy & the ATProto cohort) fed straight into the Hypercerts v2 deploy. Outcome-specific credit concentrates here, making it the second-largest slice.","Open-access proceedings":"Distribution, not creation. Publishing the works open-access is what let funders and builders actually find them â a real marginal contribution, but a smaller one: in most orderings the ideas already exist, only their reach changes.","Continued collabs incl. Berlin redesign workshop":"The bridge from research to execution. The collaborations that continued after Iceland â including the Berlin redesign workshop â are what carried the retreat's ideas into the Hypercerts v2 deploy. It earns substantial credit as the transmission link in the causal chain.","Hypercerts v2 deploy & raise (â$2.2M)":"Execution credit is deliberately discounted here: part of the v2 engineering predates the retreat, and documentation is not causation. The Shapley model routes most of this outcome's value upstream to the retreat channels that shaped it â the deploy itself keeps only the residual.","GG24 Deep Funding ($400k pool)":"An outcome endpoint. Closing the round was real work, but the counterfactual model attributes most of the credit to the upstream channels â the 22 works the GG24 forum drew on â leaving the endpoint itself a small residual slice.","AI4PG launch ($150k)":"Same logic as GG24: an endpoint whose enabling credit flows upstream through the retreat chain. The launch keeps a small residual share of its documented value.","Simocracy launch (>$50k)":"The smallest slice: a young outcome whose governed funding is still growing. Today most of its credit sits with the enabling chain; as Simocracy governs more, the documented total (and this slice) will grow with it."};function c(e){var t;return null!=(t=s[e])?t:"Its share is an exact Shapley value over the counterfactual model: averaged over every ordering of the causal chain, this is the marginal value the step adds. Enabling steps early in the chain earn more; execution endpoints are discounted because documentation is not causation."}function l(e){let t=i.K.find(t=>t.rkey===e);if(!t)return"";let a=[];a.push("### ".concat(t.title," (id: ").concat(t.rkey,", status: ").concat(t.status,")")),a.push("- When/where: ".concat(t.dateLabel," \xb7 ").concat(t.location)),a.push("- Summary: ".concat(t.description)),a.push("- Stats: ".concat(t.stats.map(e=>"".concat(e.label," ").concat(e.value)).join(" \xb7 "))),a.push("- Contributors: ".concat(t.contributors.map(e=>"".concat(e.name," (").concat(e.role,")")).join(", "))),t.funding&&(a.push("- Economics: cost ".concat(t.funding.costLabel,", Grant RoI ").concat(t.funding.roiLabel," (catalyzed funding \xf7 cost â money moved, NOT social value). ").concat(t.funding.roiNote)),t.funding.attribution&&(a.push("- Documented Shapley attribution of the grant return (catalyzed funding): ".concat(t.funding.attribution.map(e=>"".concat(e.label," ").concat(Math.round(100*e.share),"% (").concat((0,r.UK)(e.amountUsd),")")).join("; "),".")),a.push("- Reasoning per slice (use when asked why a slice carries its share): ".concat(t.funding.attribution.map(e=>"".concat(e.label,": ").concat(c(e.label))).join(" ⪠"))))),a.push("- Evidence timeline: ".concat(t.evidence.map(e=>"".concat(e.dateLabel," â ").concat(e.title)).join("; "),"."));let n=(0,r.N2)(e);return n&&a.push("- Fermi estimate of social value (Molly's back-of-the-envelope): "+"".concat((0,r.UK)(n.total.low),"â").concat((0,r.UK)(n.total.high),", base ").concat((0,r.UK)(n.total.base))+(n.roi?" (â".concat((0,r.OJ)(n.roi.base)," the cost)"):"")+". Channels: ".concat(n.channels.map(e=>"".concat(e.label," â ").concat((0,r.UK)(e.base))).join("; "),".")),a.join("\n")}let d=null;var h=a(95704);let u="molly:ask";function p(e){window.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(u,{detail:{question:e}}))}let m={did:"did:plc:2dvvph4cgkoekvmghc5fu5o5",rkey:"3mlnszwdy3e2h",uri:"at://did:plc:2dvvph4cgkoekvmghc5fu5o5/org.simocracy.sim/3mlnszwdy3e2h",name:"Molly",simocracyUrl:"https://www.simocracy.org/sims/molly",posterUrl:"/codex-pets/molly-poster.png",sheetUrl:"/codex-pets/molly-sheet.webp"},g=null!=(n=h.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_MOLLY_MODEL)?n:"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite";function b(){try{let e=window.localStorage.getItem("rr.molly.openrouterKey");if(null==e?void 0:e.trim())return e.trim()}catch(e){}let e="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";return e.trim()?e.trim():null}async function f(e,t,a,n){let i=await fetch("https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/chat/completions",{method:"POST",signal:n,headers:{Authorization:"Bearer ".concat(e),"Content-Type":"application/json","HTTP-Referer":"https://researchretreat.org","X-Title":"Research Retreat â Molly"}
1,body:JSON.stringify({model:g,stream:!0,max_tokens:2e3,temperature:.8,messages:[{role:"system",content:function(){let e=r.hQ.join(", ");return['You are "'.concat(m.name,'" â a Simocracy sim (').concat(m.simocracyUrl,") serving as the floating guide on researchretreat.org. You are warm, sharp, and numerate: a public-goods-funding native who loves a good Fermi estimate and always shows her reasoning."),"\n## Your Job\nAnswer visitors' questions about the Research Retreat â its editions, papers, people, hypercerts, economics, and how the impact page works. Keep replies short: 1-3 small paragraphs, plain language. If something isn't covered by the reference below, say so honestly and point to [email protected].\n\n## Fermi cards (visualizations you can render)",'When someone asks about the social value, social RoI, impact estimate, or "what was it worth" of an edition, include the token [[fermi:<id>]] on its own line â the chat replaces it with a full interactive Fermi-estimate chart. Valid ids: '.concat(e,". Add 1-2 sentences of your own narration around the card (lead with the headline number, name the biggest driver, note the uncertainty). Never describe the chart's contents in exhaustive detail â the card shows them. Never invent other tokens."),"\n## Reference (authoritative â never contradict it)",d||(d=["## About Research Retreat (researchretreat.org)\nResearch Retreat organizes intensive research residencies advancing decentralized science: collaborative research, prototyping, and open-access publishing on impact evaluation, mechanism design, public goods funding, and d/acc. Site sections: Retreats (landing), Papers (/papers/), Impact (/impact/ â the hypercert cards), Contact ([email protected]).\n\n## Editions (each has a hypercert â an impact claim published as an org.hypercerts.claim.activity record on the ATProto network under plrd.org)",l("ierr-2025"),"",l("dacc-2025"),"",l("rr-2026"),"",function(){let e=(0,o.Y3)("ierr25"),t=(0,o.Y3)("dacc25"),a=(e,t)=>e.slice(0,t).map(e=>'"'.concat(e.title,'" (').concat(e.authors.map(e=>e.name).join(", "),")")).join("; ");return["### Published papers (site section: /papers/)","- IERR 2025 proceedings: ".concat(e.length," works. Examples: ").concat(a(e,6),"."),"- d/acc residency artifacts: ".concat(t.length," works. Examples: ").concat(a(t,6),"."),"- Every paper has a detail page with abstract, authors, and files (PDF / website / video)."].join("\n")}(),'\n## Grant return vs. social return (important distinction)\n- Grant RoI = documented catalyzed funding \xf7 edition cost. IERR 2025: â$2.8M catalyzed from $140k â 20\xd7. This measures money moved, which is NOT the same as social value created.\n- Social return = an independent Fermi estimate of value actually created: research output + collaboration network + catalyzed dollars converted at a social-value rate and discounted to the retreat-attributable share. IERR 2025: â$1.8M base (range â$0.3Mâ$8M), roughly 13\xd7 the cost.\n- When someone asks about "RoI" or "return", be precise about which of the two they mean and offer the other.\n\n## Impact page mechanics\n- The /impact/ page shows the hypercerts as draggable 3D cards; clicking one opens its claim with the evidence timeline.\n- Visitors can sign in with any ATProto account (e.g. Bluesky) to attach community evidence and comments to a hypercert; those live on the visitor\'s own PDS and are discovered via the Constellation backlink index â the site itself has no server.\n- The IERR 2025 claim decomposes its 20\xd7 grant return with exact Shapley values over a counterfactual model (the treemap on the claim page); clicking a tile or influence pill asks Molly to explain that slice.'].join("\n")),"","Hard rules: stay in character as ".concat(m.name," at all times, first person, no jargon like DIDs unless asked. Don't break character or mention that you are an AI model. Format with plain text â no markdown headings or tables (short dashes-lists are fine).")].join("\n")}()},...t.slice(-16).map(e=>({role:e.role,content:e.content.slice(0,4e3)}))]})});if(!i.ok||!i.body)throw Error("OpenRouter ".concat(i.status));let s=i.body.getReader(),c=new TextDecoder,h="",u="";for(;;){var p,b,f,y;let{done:e,value:t}=await s.read();if(e)break;let n=(h+=c.decode(t,{stream:!0})).split("\n");for(let e of(h=null!=(p=n.pop())?p:"",n)){let t=e.trim();if(!t.startsWith("data: "))continue;let n=t.slice(6);if("[DONE]"!==n)try{let e=null==(y=JSON.parse(n).choices)||null==(f=y[0])||null==(b=f.delta)?void 0:b.content;e&&(u+=e,a(u))}catch(e){}}}return u}let y=/fermi|estimate|social value|social roi|roi|worth|impact.*(value|number)|value.*creat/;function v(e){var t,a,n;let o=e.toLowerCase(),s=/ierr|iceland|reykjav|impact evaluator research/.test(o)?"ierr-2025":/d\/acc|dacc|patagonia|edge city|resid/.test(o)?"dacc-2025":/2026|next edition|upcoming/.test(o)?"rr-2026":null;if(/shapley|attribution|carry|carries|why does|slice|share of/.test(o)){let o=function(e){var t,a,n,o;let r=e.toLowerCase();for(let e of i.K)for(let n of null!=(a=null==(t=e.funding)?void 0:t.attribution)?a:[])if(r.includes(n.label.toLowerCase()))return{cert:e,item:n};let s=r.match(/(\d+(?:\.\d+)?)\s*%/);if(s){let e=parseFloat(s[1]);for(let t of i.K)for(let a of null!=(o=null==(n=t.funding)?void 0:n.attribution)?o:[])if(.55>Math.abs(100*a.share-e))return{cert:t,item:a}}return null}(e);if(o){let e=null!=(n=null==(a=o.cert.funding)||null==(t=a.attribution)?void 0:t.reduce((e,t)=>
1e+t.amountUsd,0))?n:0,i=o.item.share>=.1?"".concat(Math.round(100*o.item.share),"%"):"".concat((100*o.item.share).toFixed(1),"%");return'"'.concat(o.item.label,'" carries ').concat(i," of ").concat(o.cert.title.split("\xb7")[0].trim(),"'s documented grant return â about ").concat((0,r.UK)(o.item.amountUsd)," of the ").concat((0,r.UK)(e)," in catalyzed funding.\n\n")+"".concat(c(o.item.label),"\n\n")+"Keep in mind that's money moved, not value created â ask me for the Fermi estimate of the social return and I'll draw the chart."}}if(y.test(o)){let e=null!=s?s:"ierr-2025",t=(0,r.N2)(e);if(t){let a=t.roi?" â roughly ".concat((0,r.OJ)(t.roi.base)," the cost"):"";return"Here's my back-of-the-envelope for ".concat(t.cert.title.split("\xb7")[0].trim(),": ")+"about ".concat((0,r.UK)(t.total.base)," of social value created (range ").concat((0,r.UK)(t.total.low),"â").concat((0,r.UK)(t.total.high),")").concat(a,".\n")+"[[fermi:".concat(e,"]]\n")+'Note this is independent of the documented grant return (money catalyzed) â dollars moved are converted and discounted here. The biggest driver is "'.concat([...t.channels].sort((e,t)=>t.base-e.base)[0].label.toLowerCase(),'". Ask me about any of the assumptions!')}}if(s){let e=i.K.find(e=>e.rkey===s);return"".concat(e.title," â ").concat(e.dateLabel,", ").concat(e.location,". ").concat(e.shortDescription," ")+"You can open its full impact claim (with the evidence timeline) on the Impact page, and I can run a Fermi estimate of its social value if you ask."}return/paper|proceeding|publica|artifact|read/.test(o)?"The Papers section (/papers/) holds the open-access proceedings: 22 works from IERR 2025 in Iceland and 6 artifacts from the d/acc residency in Patagonia â each with abstract, authors, and files. Ask me about a specific edition and I'll tell you more.":/hypercert|impact page|evidence|claim|atproto|sign in|comment/.test(o)?"Each edition publishes a hypercert â a public impact claim on the ATProto network with an evidence timeline behind it. On the Impact page you can browse the cards, open a claim, and sign in with any ATProto account (like Bluesky) to attach your own evidence or comments. I can also run a Fermi estimate of the social value for any edition.":/who are you|what are you|molly/.test(o)?"I'm Molly â a Simocracy sim (".concat(m.simocracyUrl,") who moonlights as the guide here. Ask me anything about the retreats, the papers, or the hypercerts â Fermi estimates of social value are my favourite party trick."):/contact|email|reach|apply|join/.test(o)?"You can reach the organizers at [email protected] â that's also the address for joining a future edition. The 2026 retreat is in planning, so it's a good time to say hello.":'Research Retreat runs intensive research residencies on impact evaluation, mechanism design, public goods funding, and d/acc â IERR 2025 in Iceland, the d/acc residency in Patagonia, and a 2026 edition in planning. Ask me about any edition, the papers, or say "Fermi estimate for IERR 2025" and I\'ll draw you the numbers.'}},37068:(e,t,a)=>{a.d(t,{K:()=>n});let n=[{rkey:"ierr-2025",collection:"org.hypercerts.claim.activity",status:"past",subjectUri:"https://researchretreat.org/impact/ierr-2025",claim:{uri:"at://did:plc:pgwr6hkosgznfl5nz7egajei/org.hypercerts.claim.activity/ierr-2025",cid:"bafyreieiwf3qal3lqmlntbfvztqsegmicu6m6fzbyi6msjar5fn4oksnxy"},funding:{costUsd:14e4,costLabel:"$140k",roiLabel:"20\xd7",roiNote:"The Iceland edition cost 140,000 USD to run. It seeded the Hypercerts v2 redesign that raised about 2.2M USD from 12,000 donors, helped close the GG24 Deep Funding (400K matching pool) and AI4PG (150K) rounds, and launched Simocracy, which now governs more than 50K of funding â about 2.8M USD of catalyzed grant funding, a 20\xd7 grant return documented as attachment records in the timeline below. The social return is estimated separately: money moved is not value created, so catalyzed dollars are converted and discounted in an independent Fermi model â ask Molly for the chart.",attribution:[{label:"Cohort convened in Reykjav\xedk",
1share:.315,amountUsd:883e3,group:"retreat"},{label:"12 days of working sessions",share:.147,amountUsd:413e3,group:"retreat"},{label:"22 works â thinking pieces & IERR artifact",share:.203,amountUsd:569e3,group:"retreat"},{label:"Open-access proceedings",share:.07,amountUsd:195e3,group:"retreat"},{label:"Continued collabs incl. Berlin redesign workshop",share:.156,amountUsd:436e3,group:"retreat"},{label:"Hypercerts v2 deploy & raise (â$2.2M)",share:.082,amountUsd:231e3,group:"community"},{label:"GG24 Deep Funding ($400k pool)",share:.016,amountUsd:45e3,group:"community"},{label:"AI4PG launch ($150k)",share:.006,amountUsd:18e3,group:"community"},{label:"Simocracy launch (>$50k)",share:.004,amountUsd:1e4,group:"community"}]},title:"IERR 2025 \xb7 Impact Evaluator Research Retreat",shortDescription:"Two-week research retreat in Reykjav\xedk, Iceland producing 22 published works on impact evaluators, evaluation mechanisms, and public goods funding.",description:"A two-week intensive residency in Reykjav\xedk, Iceland exploring the Impact Evaluator framework. 23 researchers developed design principles and robustness metrics for IEs, documented implementations in the wild, and prototyped new scopes, measurement, evaluation, and reward functions. They published 22 open-access works into the retreat proceedings.",startDate:"2025-07-26",endDate:"2025-08-10",workScope:["impact evaluation","mechanism design","public goods funding","decentralized science"],impactScope:["open research","IE framework","retreat proceedings"],contributors:[{name:"Juan Benet",role:"Founder, Protocol Labs"},{name:"Molly MacKinley",role:"CEO, FilOz"},{name:"David Dao",role:"Chief Scientist, GainForest.Earth"},{name:"Sejal Rekhan",role:"Innovation Catalyst, Allo.Capital"},{name:"Nidhi Harihar",role:"Co-Founder, VoiceDeck"},{name:"Devansh Mehta",role:"AI & Governance Lead, Ethereum Foundation"},{name:"23 retreat researchers",role:"Authors of the proceedings"}],rights:"Public display \xb7 open-access proceedings",location:"Reykjav\xedk, Iceland",image:"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Reykjavik_skyline_%284046575309%29.jpg/1920px-Reykjavik_skyline_%284046575309%29.jpg",imageAlt:"Reykjav\xedk and the Esja mountain range, venue of IERR 2025",imageCredit:"Reykjav\xedk, Iceland",dateLabel:"Jul 26 â Aug 10, 2025",stats:[{label:"Grant RoI",value:"20\xd7"},{label:"Invested",value:"$140k"},{label:"Published works",value:"22"},{label:"Researchers",value:"23"}],evidence:[{date:"2025-07-26",dateLabel:"Jul 26, 2025",kind:"milestone",title:"Cohort convened in Reykjav\xedk",influence:{share:.315,amountUsd:883e3},description:"23 researchers and practitioners arrived in Reykjav\xedk to open the two-week Impact Evaluator Research Retreat, setting the agenda across IE design, measurement, and reward functions.",badge:"23 researchers"},{date:"2025-07-28",dateLabel:"Jul 28 â Aug 8, 2025",kind:"session",title:"Daily working sessions on the IE framework",influence:{share:.147,amountUsd:413e3},description:"Structured sessions and breakout tracks drafted design principles and robustness metrics for impact evaluators, and documented implementations observed in the wild.",badge:"12 days"},{date:"2025-08-09",dateLabel:"Aug 9, 2025",kind:"publication",title:"22 works submitted to the proceedings",influence:{share:.203,amountUsd:569e3},description:"Participants finalized 22 papers, write-ups, and open-source implementations spanning impact evaluation, mechanism design, and public goods funding.",badge:"22 works"},{date:"2025-08-10",dateLabel:"Aug 10, 2025",kind:"release",title:"Open-access proceedings released",influence:{share:.07,amountUsd:195e3},description:"The full retreat proceedings were published open-access, closing IERR 2025 and seeding the next round of impact-evaluation research.",badge:"open access"},{date:"2025-08-10",dateLabel:"Aug 2025",kind:"milestone",title:"Participants report an outstanding experience",influence:{share:.156,amountUsd:436e3},description:"Post-retreat feedback from the cohort was overwhelmingly positive. Researchers described the retreat as one of the most productive research environments they had worked in, and many kept collaborating after leaving Iceland.",badge:"cohort feedback"}],liveInfluence:[{match:"AI4PG",share:.006,amountUsd:18e3},{match:"GG24",share:.016,amountUsd:45e3},{match:"Hypercerts v2",share:.082,amountUsd:231e3},{match:"Simocracy",share:.004,amountUsd:1e4}],href:"/ierr-2025/"},{rkey:"dacc-2025",collection:"org.hypercerts.claim.activity",status:"past",subjectUri:"https://researchretreat.org/impact/dacc-2025",claim:{uri:"at://did:plc:pgwr6hkosgznfl5nz7egajei/org.hypercerts.claim.activity/dacc-2025",cid:"bafyreibp66d4r7o4vz76nlxsz3fuz3cjxslw6pj2wvdfhfkdcrguajhcva"}
1,title:"d/acc Residency \xb7 Edge City Patagonia",shortDescription:"Four-week residency in San Mart\xedn de los Andes prototyping d/acc projects across AI, governance, cybersecurity, and resource allocation inside Edge City's popup village.",description:"A 4-week residency hosted by Protocol Labs in which residents prototyped projects across AI, robotics, governance systems, self-sovereign tools, cybersecurity, resource allocation, and information integrity, testing d/acc ideas directly inside Edge City's popup village in Patagonia. 6 artifacts were published to the proceedings.",startDate:"2025-10-18",endDate:"2025-11-15",workScope:["d/acc","AI & governance","cybersecurity","self-sovereign tools","resource allocation"],impactScope:["defensive acceleration","open prototypes","residency artifacts"],contributors:[{name:"Protocol Labs",role:"Host"},{name:"Edge City",role:"Popup village venue"},{name:"7 residency builders",role:"Authors of the artifacts"}],rights:"Public display \xb7 open-source artifacts",location:"San Mart\xedn de los Andes, Argentina",image:"https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1469474968028-56623f02e42e?auto=format&fit=crop&w=1600&q=80",imageAlt:"Sunlit Andean mountain valley in Patagonia, Argentina",imageCredit:"Patagonia, Argentina",dateLabel:"Oct 18 â Nov 15, 2025",stats:[{label:"Artifacts",value:"6"},{label:"Builders",value:"7"},{label:"Weeks",value:"4"}],evidence:[{date:"2025-10-18",dateLabel:"Oct 18, 2025",kind:"milestone",title:"Residency opens inside Edge City Patagonia",description:"Builders joined the Edge City popup village in San Mart\xedn de los Andes to begin a four-week d/acc residency hosted by Protocol Labs.",badge:"7 builders"},{date:"2025-10-20",dateLabel:"Oct 20 â Nov 12, 2025",kind:"session",title:"Prototyping sprints across d/acc tracks",description:"Residents prototyped across AI, robotics, governance, self-sovereign tools, cybersecurity, resource allocation, and information integrity, testing d/acc ideas in the field.",badge:"7 tracks"},{date:"2025-11-13",dateLabel:"Nov 13, 2025",kind:"artifact",title:"6 artifacts shipped",description:"The cohort shipped six open prototypes and write-ups documenting their d/acc experiments during the residency.",badge:"6 artifacts"},{date:"2025-11-15",dateLabel:"Nov 15, 2025",kind:"release",title:"Demo day & artifact handoff",description:"Residents presented their work and released their artifacts open-source, closing the d/acc residency at Edge City Patagonia.",badge:"open source"}],href:"/dacc-residency/"},{rkey:"rr-2026",collection:"org.hypercerts.claim.activity",status:"upcoming",subjectUri:"https://researchretreat.org/impact/rr-2026",claim:{uri:"at://did:plc:pgwr6hkosgznfl5nz7egajei/org.hypercerts.claim.activity/rr-2026",cid:"bafyreiadvrwfuptavjurzrauqawbxnj3r4szoy7yz6q6c6idf43ws2ndjm"},title:"Research Retreat 2026 \xb7 Next Edition",shortDescription:"The next Research Retreat edition, now in planning. Same research agenda, new cohort, new venue, open proceedings.",description:"The 2026 edition of the Research Retreat is in planning. Building on IERR 2025 and the d/acc residency, the next retreat will convene a new cohort of researchers and builders for another intensive residency. Venue and dates will be announced. Its hypercert will be claimed here once the retreat concludes, and the evidence timeline will fill in as the edition takes shape.",startDate:"2026-07-01",endDate:"2026-08-31",workScope:["impact evaluation","mechanism design","public goods funding"],impactScope:["open research","next cohort","future proceedings"],contributors:[{name:"Research Retreat",role:"Organizer"},{name:"Cohort TBA",role:"Researchers & builders"}],rights:"Public display \xb7 to be claimed",location:"Venue TBA",image:"https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1506905925346-21bda4d32df4?auto=format&fit=crop&w=1600&q=80",imageAlt:"Mountain ridge at dawn, venue of the next Research Retreat to be announced",imageCredit:"Next edition \xb7 venue TBA",dateLabel:"2026 \xb7 TBA",stats:[{label:"Edition",value:"2026"},{label:"Cohort",value:"TBA"}],evidence:[{date:"2026-01-01",dateLabel:"2026",kind:"milestone",title:"Planning underway",description:"The next Research Retreat edition is being scoped. Venue, dates, and cohort will be announced here. Sign in with ATProto to leave suggestions and evidence as the edition takes shape.",badge:"in planning"}],href:"/"}]},69319:(e,t,a)=>{a.d(t,{H9:()=>d,N2:()=>r,OJ:()=>l,UK:()=>c,hQ:()=>s});var n=a(37068);let i=[{rkey:"ierr-2025",costUsd:14e4,framing:"Independent of the 20\xd7 grant return â what social value did two weeks of 23 researchers in Reykjav\xedk plausibly create?",channels:[{id:"works",label:"Published research output",note:"22 open-access works â value of the ideas travelling beyond the cohort.",factors:[{label:"published works",low:22,base:22,high:22,unit:"works"},{label:"value per open-access work",low:3e3,base:1e4,high:3e4,unit:"$/wor
1k"}]},{id:"collabs",label:"Collaboration network formed",note:"Lasting research collaborations seeded by two weeks of co-living.",factors:[{label:"researchers",low:23,base:23,high:23,unit:"people"},{label:"lasting collabs per researcher",low:.5,base:1.2,high:2.5,unit:"collabs"},{label:"value per collaboration",low:5e3,base:2e4,high:6e4,unit:"$/collab"}]},{id:"catalysis",label:"Social value via catalyzed funding",note:"Hypercerts v2 raise (~$2.2M), GG24 ($400k), AI4PG ($150k), Simocracy (>$50k): dollars moved â value created â convert at a social-value rate, then keep only the retreat-attributable share.",factors:[{label:"documented catalyzed funding",low:28e5,base:28e5,high:28e5,unit:"$"},{label:"social value per catalyzed $",low:.5,base:1.2,high:2.5,unit:"\xd7"},{label:"retreat-attributable share",low:.1,base:.3,high:.6,unit:"\xd7"}]}],caveat:"Independent of the documented 20\xd7 grant return (money moved). This estimates value created; the evidence timeline's Shapley attribution decomposes the grant return you can compare against."},{rkey:"dacc-2025",costUsd:null,framing:"What did four weeks of d/acc prototyping inside Edge City Patagonia plausibly create?",channels:[{id:"artifacts",label:"Open artifacts shipped",note:"6 open-source prototypes and write-ups across the d/acc tracks.",factors:[{label:"artifacts",low:6,base:6,high:6,unit:"artifacts"},{label:"value per open prototype",low:5e3,base:15e3,high:5e4,unit:"$/artifact"}]},{id:"acceleration",label:"Builder acceleration",note:"Focused residency weeks vs. what the builders would have shipped otherwise.",factors:[{label:"builders",low:7,base:7,high:7,unit:"people"},{label:"residency weeks",low:4,base:4,high:4,unit:"weeks"},{label:"counterfactual uplift per builder-week",low:1e3,base:3e3,high:8e3,unit:"$/wk"}]},{id:"field",label:"d/acc ideas field-tested",note:"Evidence value of testing defensive-acceleration ideas in a real popup village.",factors:[{label:"field-test evidence value",low:2e4,base:8e4,high:3e5,unit:"$"}]}],caveat:"The residency's evidence timeline is still being documented; ranges here are wider than for IERR 2025."},{rkey:"rr-2026",costUsd:15e4,framing:"Projection for the next edition, anchored on the realized IERR 2025 multiple.",channels:[{id:"projection",label:"Projected edition value",note:"Planned budget \xd7 plausible social-RoI multiple (IERR 2025: 20\xd7 grant return, ~13\xd7 estimated social return) \xd7 probability the edition ships as planned.",factors:[{label:"planned budget",low:15e4,base:15e4,high:15e4,unit:"$"},{label:"social RoI multiple",low:3,base:12,high:25,unit:"\xd7"},{label:"probability it ships as planned",low:.7,base:.85,high:.95,unit:"p"}]}],caveat:"Pure projection â the 2026 hypercert will be claimed (and this estimate replaced by evidence) once the retreat concludes."}];function o(e,t){return e.reduce((e,a)=>e*a[t],1)}function r(e){var t,a,r;let s=i.find(t=>t.rkey===e),c=n.K.find(t=>t.rkey===e);if(!s||!c)return null;let l=s.channels.map(e=>({...e,low:o(e.factors,"low"),base:o(e.factors,"base"),high:o(e.factors,"high")})),d={low:l.reduce((e,t)=>e+t.low,0),base:l.reduce((e,t)=>e+t.base,0),high:l.reduce((e,t)=>e+t.high,0)},h=s.costUsd?{low:d.low/s.costUsd,base:d.base/s.costUsd,high:d.high/s.costUsd}:null,u=null!=(r=null==(a=c.funding)||null==(t=a.attribution)?void 0:t.reduce((e,t)=>e+t.amountUsd,0))?r:null;return{model:s,cert:c,channels:l,total:d,roi:h,documentedUsd:u}}let s=i.map(e=>e.rkey);function c(e){if(e>=1e6){let t=e/1e6;return"$".concat(t>=10?Math.round(t):Math.round(10*t)/10,"M")}return e>=1e3?"$".concat(Math.round(e/1e3),"k"):"$".concat(Math.round(e))}function l(e){return"".concat(e>=10?Math.round(e):Math.round(10*e)/10,"\xd7")}function d(e){var t;let a=e.base;return(null==(t=e.unit)?void 0:t.startsWith("$"))||a>=1e3?c(a):"".concat(Math.round(100*a)/100)}}}]);
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