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35 36<title>Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space | Matt Delventhal</title> 37</head> 38<body id=top data-spy=scroll data-offset=70 data-target=#TableOfContents class=page-wrapper data-wc-page-id=ad5d847eefb9c03221e7dbb2456ff11a>
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To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in
158which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data.</p> 159<div class=row> 160<div class=col-md-1></div> 161<div class=col-md-10> 162<div class=row> 163<div class="col-12 col-md-3 pub-row-heading">Type</div> 164<div class="col-12 col-md-9"> 165<a href=/publication/#3> 166Preprint 167</a> 168</div> 169</div> 170</div> 171<div class=col-md-1></div> 172</div> 173<div class="d-md-none space-below"></div> 174<div class=row> 175<div class=col-md-1></div> 176<div class=col-md-10> 177<div class=row> 178<div class="col-12 col-md-3 pub-row-heading">Publication</div> 179<div class="col-12 col-md-9">National Bureau of Economics Working Paper #29480</div> 180</div> 181</div> 182<div class=col-md-1></div> 183</div> 184<div class="d-md-none space-below"></div> 185<div class=space-below></div> 186<div class=article-style><p>Data and interactive visualizations can be had through this nifty online app: <a href=../../project/demographic_transitions/ title="accompanying online app">Visualizing Demographic Transitions</a>.</p> 187<p><strong>Media:</strong> <a href=https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/12/11/why-the-demographic-transition-is-speeding-up title="The Economist" target=_blank rel=noopener>The Economist</a>, <a href=https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/economia/la-mano-visible/2021-09-12/futuro-demografico-humanidad_3286394/ title="El Confidencial (Spanish)" target=_blank rel=noopener>El Confidencial</a>, <a href=https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2021/10/78340/ title="The Public Discourse" target=_blank rel=noopener>The Public Discourse</a>, <a href=https://pism.podbean.com/e/jesus-fernandez-villaverde-on-the-incoming-demographic-collapse/ title="Penn's Exchange" target=_blank rel=noopener>Penn’s Exchange</a></p> 188</div> 189<div class=article-tags> 190<a class="badge badge-light" href=/tag/urban/>Urban</a> 191<a class="badge badge-light" href=/tag/telecommuting/>Telecommuting</a> 192</div> 193<div class="media author-card content-widget-hr"> 194<a href=https://mattdelventhal.com><img class="avatar mr-3 avatar-circle" src=/authors/mdelventhal/avatar_hufd6c8390a3985e411dedef866601d338_318098_270x270_fill_q75_lanczos_center.jpg alt="Matt Delventhal"></a> 195<div class=media-body> 196<h5 class=card-title><a href=https://mattdelventhal.com>Matt Delventhal</a></h5> 197<ul class=network-icon aria-hidden=true> 198<li> 199<a href=mailto:[email protected]> 200<i class="fas fa-envelope"></i> 201</a> 202</li> 203<li> 204<a href=https://twitter.com/mattd_econ target=_blank rel=noopener> 205<i class="fab fa-twitter"></i> 206</a> 207</li> 208<li> 209<a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OhhkFg4AAAAJ" target=_blank rel=noopener> 210<i class="ai ai-google-scholar"></i> 211</a> 212</li> 213<li> 214<a href=https://ideas.repec.org/f/pde1130.html target=_blank rel=noopener> 215<i class="ai ai-ideas-repec"></i> 216</a> 217</li> 218<li> 219<a href=https://github.com/mdelventhal target=_blank rel=noopener> 220<i class="fab fa-github"></i> 221</a> 222</li> 223<li> 224<a href=https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-delventhal-017b7629/ target=_blank rel=noopener> 225<i class="fab fa-linkedin"></i> 226</a> 227</li> 228<li> 229<a href=/uploads/mdelventhal-cv.pdf> 230<i class="ai ai-cv"></i> 231</a> 232</li> 233</ul> 234</div> 235</div> 236</div> 237</div> 238</div> 239<div class=page-footer> 240<div class=container> 241<footer class=site-footer> 242<p class="powered-by copyright-license-text"> 243© 2026 Me. This work is licensed under <a href=https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 rel="noopener noreferrer" target=_blank>CC BY NC ND 4.0</a> 244</p> 245<p class="powered-by footer-license-icons"> 246<a href=https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 rel="noopener noreferrer" target=_blank aria-label="Creative Commons"> 247<i class="fab fa-creative-commons fa-2x" aria-hidden=true></i> 248<i class="fab fa-creative-commons-by fa-2x" aria-hidden=true></i> 249<i class="fab fa-creative-commons-nc fa-2x" aria-hidden=true></i> 250<i class="fab fa-creative-commons-nd fa-2x" aria-hidden=true></i> 251</a> 252</p> 253<p class=powered-by>
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