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95 96 97 98 99<link rel="stylesheet" href="styles.css"> 100</head> 101 102<body class="nav-fixed quarto-light"> 103 104<div id="quarto-search-results"></div> 105 <header id="quarto-header" class="headroom fixed-top"> 106 <nav class="navbar navbar-expand-lg " data-bs-theme="dark"> 107 <div class="navbar-container container-fluid"> 108 <div class="navbar-brand-container mx-auto"> 109 <a class="navbar-brand" href="./index.html"> 110 <span class="navbar-title">How To Predict The Future</span> 111 </a> 112 </div> 113 <div id="quarto-search" class="" title="Search"></div> 114 <button class="navbar-toggler" type="button" data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#navbarCollapse" aria-controls="navbarCollapse" role="menu" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Toggle navigation" onclick="if (window.quartoToggleHeadroom) { window.quartoToggleHeadroom(); }"> 115 <span class="navbar-toggler-icon"></span> 116</button> 117 <div class="collapse navbar-collapse" id="navbarCollapse"> 118 <ul class="navbar-nav navbar-nav-scroll ms-auto"> 119 <li class="nav-item dropdown "> 120 <a class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#" id="nav-menu-slides" role="link" data-bs-toggle="dropdown" aria-expanded="false"> 121 <span class="menu-text">Slides</span> 122 </a> 123 <ul class="dropdown-menu dropdown-menu-end" aria-labelledby="nav-menu-slides"> 124 <li class="dropdown-header">I. Uncertainty</li> 125 <li> 126 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/fundamentals.html"> 127 <span class="dropdown-text">Fundamentals of Probability</span></a> 128 </li> 129 <li> 130 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/compound-probability.html"> 131 <span class="dropdown-text">Compound Probability</span></a> 132 </li> 133 <li> 134 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/brier-scores.html"> 135 <span class="dropdown-text">Brier Scores</span></a> 136 </li> 137 <li> 138 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/conditional-probability.html"> 139 <span class="dropdown-text">Conditional Probability</span></a> 140 </li> 141 <li> 142 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/bayes-rule.html"> 143 <span class="dropdown-text">Bayes Rule</span></a> 144 </li> 145 <li> 146 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/bell-curves.html"> 147 <span class="dropdown-text">Bell Curves</span></a> 148 </li> 149 <li> 150 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/long-tails.html"> 151 <span class="dropdown-text">Long Tails</span></a> 152 </li> 153 <li class="dropdown-header">II. Wisdom of Crowds</li> 154 <li> 155 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/jury-theorems.html"> 156 <span class="dropdown-text">Jury Theorems</span></a> 157 </li> 158 <li> 159 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/median-voter-theorem.html"> 160 <span class="dropdown-text">Median Voter Theorem</span></a> 161 </li> 162 <li> 163 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/prediction-markets.html"> 164 <span class="dropdown-text">Prediction Markets</span></a> 165 </li> 166 <li> 167 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/extremizing.html"> 168 <span class="dropdown-text">Extremizing</span></a> 169 </li> 170 <li> 171 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/madness-of-crowds.html"> 172 <span class="dropdown-text">Madness of Crowds</span></a> 173 </li> 174 <li class="dropdown-header">III. Machine Learning</li> 175 <li> 176 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/linear-models.html"> 177 <span class="dropdown-text">Linear Models</span></a> 178 </li> 179 <li> 180 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/election-forecasting.html"> 181 <span class="dropdown-text">Election Forecasting</span></a> 182 </li> 183 <li> 184 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/tree-models.html"> 185 <span class="dropdown-text">Tree Models</span></a> 186 </li> 187 <li> 188 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/random-forests.html"> 189 <span class="dropdown-text">Random Forests</span></a> 190 </li> 191 <li class="dropdown-header">IV. Dynamics</li> 192 <li> 193 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/stocks-flows.html"> 194 <span class="dropdown-text">Stocks & Flows</span></a> 195 </li> 196 <li>
197 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/feedback.html"> 198 <span class="dropdown-text">Feedback Loops</span></a> 199 </li> 200 <li> 201 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/tipping-points.html"> 202 <span class="dropdown-text">Tipping Points</span></a> 203 </li> 204 <li> 205 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./slides/path-dependence.html"> 206 <span class="dropdown-text">Path Dependence</span></a> 207 </li> 208 </ul> 209 </li> 210 <li class="nav-item dropdown "> 211 <a class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#" id="nav-menu-archive" role="link" data-bs-toggle="dropdown" aria-expanded="false"> 212 <span class="menu-text">Archive</span> 213 </a> 214 <ul class="dropdown-menu dropdown-menu-end" aria-labelledby="nav-menu-archive"> 215 <li> 216 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./fall-2022.html"> 217 <span class="dropdown-text">Fall 2022 Predictions</span></a> 218 </li> 219 <li> 220 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./fall-2023.html"> 221 <span class="dropdown-text">Fall 2023 Predictions</span></a> 222 </li> 223 <li> 224 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./fall-2024.html"> 225 <span class="dropdown-text">Fall 2024 Predictions</span></a> 226 </li> 227 <li> 228 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./spring-2025.html"> 229 <span class="dropdown-text">Spring 2025 Predictions</span></a> 230 </li> 231 <li> 232 <a class="dropdown-item" href="./fall-2025.html"> 233 <span class="dropdown-text">Fall 2025 Predictions</span></a> 234 </li> 235 </ul> 236 </li> 237 <li class="nav-item"> 238 <a class="nav-link" href="./POLS-3220-syllabus.pdf"> 239<span class="menu-text">Syllabus</span></a> 240 </li> 241</ul> 242 </div> <!-- /navcollapse --> 243 <div class="quarto-navbar-tools"> 244</div> 245 </div> <!-- /container-fluid --> 246 </nav> 247</header> 248<!-- content --> 249<div id="quarto-content" class="quarto-container page-columns page-rows-contents page-layout-article page-navbar"> 250<!-- sidebar --> 251<!-- margin-sidebar --> 252 <div id="quarto-margin-sidebar" class="sidebar margin-sidebar"> 253 <nav id="TOC" role="doc-toc" class="toc-active"> 254 <h2 id="toc-title">On this page</h2> 255 256 <ul> 257 <li><a href="#week-1-825" id="toc-week-1-825" class="nav-link active" data-scroll-target="#week-1-825">Week 1 (8/25)</a></li> 258 <li><a href="#week-2-91" id="toc-week-2-91" class="nav-link" data-scroll-target="#week-2-91">Week 2 (9/1)</a></li> 259 <li><a href="#week-3-98" id="toc-week-3-98" class="nav-link" data-scroll-target="#week-3-98">Week 3 (9/8)</a></li> 260 <li><a href="#week-4-915" id="toc-week-4-915" class="nav-link" data-scroll-target="#week-4-915">Week 4 (9/15)</a></li> 261 <li><a href="#week-5-922" id="toc-week-5-922" class="nav-link" data-scroll-target="#week-5-922">Week 5 (9/22)</a></li> 262 <li><a href="#week-6-929" id="toc-week-6-929" class="nav-link" data-scroll-target="#week-6-929">Week 6 (9/29)</a></li> 263 <li><a href="#leaderboard" id="toc-leaderboard" class="nav-link" data-scroll-target="#leaderboard">Leaderboard</a></li> 264 </ul> 265</nav> 266 </div> 267<!-- main --> 268<main class="content" id="quarto-document-content"> 269 270<header id="title-block-header" class="quarto-title-block default"> 271<div class="quarto-title"> 272<h1 class="title">Fall 2026 Predictions</h1> 273</div> 274 275 276 277<div class="quarto-title-meta"> 278 279 <div> 280 <div class="quarto-title-meta-heading">Author</div> 281 <div class="quarto-title-meta-contents"> 282 <p>Joe Ornstein </p> 283 </div> 284 </div> 285 286 <div> 287 <div class="quarto-title-meta-heading">Published</div> 288 <div class="quarto-title-meta-contents"> 289 <p class="date">October 1, 2026</p> 290 </div> 291 </div> 292 293 294 </div> 295 296 297 298</header> 299 300 301<section id="week-1-825" class="level2"> 302<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="week-1-825">Week 1 (8/25)</h2> 303<div class="cell"> 304<div class="cell-output-display"> 305<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-f92fd9178226f5e3d688" style="width:100%;height:464px;"></div>
306<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-f92fd9178226f5e3d688">{"x":{"data":[{"x":[0.40000000000000002],"y":[0.90738639848306779],"text":"Crowd (40%)","type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"triangle-up","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Crowd,1)","legendgroup":"(Crowd,1)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.25],"y":[1.9907103655487299],"text":"Crowd (25%)","type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Crowd,2)","legendgroup":"(Crowd,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.59999999999999998],"y":[1.1011384223960341],"text":"Joe Ornstein (60%): Conditional on being<br />physically capable of traveling to Washington,<br />I expect Senator McConnell will want to be<br />present to pass the Farm Bill out of committee<br />in mid-September. So the question boils down to<br />whether the recovery from his June hospitalization<br />is too slow to permit him to return to the<br />Senate. Statements from Kentucky Republicans<br />over the past few days suggest that they expect<br />he will be ready to return next month, but I<br />want to temper my inclination to give too much<br />credence to cheap talk. Occam's Razor says<br />there's no deep conspiracy here; it's not uncommon<br />for communications staff to be cagey during a<br />prolonged medical absence (e.g. Feinstein in<br />2023). But I hesitate to put this one much higher<br />than coin flip odds.","type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"triangle-up","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Joe Ornstein,1)","legendgroup":"(Joe Ornstein,1)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.20000000000000001],"y":[1.9752723724395036],"text":"Joe Ornstein (20%): There's not much to go on at<br />this point except the preseason Football Power<br />Index (FPI) and vibes. There's no particular<br />reason to believe that FPI is biased in one<br />direction or another, but I'm convinced by our<br />discussion on Thursday to adjust upward a bit,<br />given that a pure preseason FPI projection would<br />have underestimated how many undefeated seasons<br />Georgia pulled off over the past five years.<br />Straight multiplication of the individual game<br />odds from FPI spreads yields ~15%, and I'll bump<br />that to 20%.","type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","legendgroup":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.40000000000000002,0.59999999999999998,0.25,0.48999999999999999,0.45000000000000001,0.40000000000000002,0.34999999999999998,0.23000000000000001,0.80000000000000004,0.84999999999999998,0.29999999999999999,0.59999999999999998,0.029999999999999999,0.35999999999999999,0.34999999999999998,0.34999999999999998,0.29999999999999999,0.65000000000000002,0.79000000000000004,0.84999999999999998,0.26000000000000001,0.84999999999999998,0.59999999999999998,0.29999999999999999,0.25,0.59999999999999998,0.29999999999999999,0.69999999999999996,0.5,0.65000000000000002,0.55000000000000004,0.23000000000000001,0.37,0.29999999999999999,0.84999999999999998,0.32000000000000001],"y":[1.0025867732800544,1.0196924834884704,0.98914166213944554,0.99617182841524476,0.95078495105728511,0.96993499951437112,1.0472915235348046,0.96616583680734036,1.1115340148285031,0.94239080393686891,0.88283968642354016,1.0229889313876628,1.0917895870655776,0.9660970850288868,0.96422286488115783,0.94951430119574065,1.1133134277164936,0.98251329943537713,1.0161542959697545,0.92604589901864531,0.97362525291740898,1.0956593053415418,0.91055258367210623,1.0989856793731452,0.9812679186649621,0.97381015630438927,0.9941916184313595,1.0317677676305175,0.91893540427088738,1.0026177819631994,0.91719754863530401,0.96151608487591145,0.95188977781683204,0.94188414214178917,0.96974321670830255,1.0911649037711322],"text":["Anya Biswas (40%): After his fall on June<br />14, Mitch McConnell required serious medical<br />attention. He was released from the rehabilitation<br />center in August and is recovering at home. He<br />is 84 years old and has had a history of several<br />
306illnesses resulting in hospitalization, including<br />the flu. However, if he were physically able,<br />he would try to cast a vote in Senate as he is<br />an influential person within the institution.<br />He does not need to show up for all the sessions<br />and once Senate reconvenes in September there<br />will be several important votes. It is important<br />to consider all these factors, since there are<br />many events that would need to fall in place for<br />McConnell to vote in the Senate by November 19.","Bain Fulcher (60%): There have been reports<br />that his rehabilitation has been progressing,<br />and he is expected to return to the Senate in<br />September. If he can, he will likely cast a vote<br />because his vote could be important to advance the<br />Republican agenda. However, he has had complicated<br />health issues, which could affect his ability to<br />participate.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (25%): No, Mitch McConnell<br />will not cast a vote in the US Senate before<br />November 19th. His deteriorating health has<br />pointed to a long-term leave from the US Senate.<br />Because we were last updated on his status in<br />early August, his condition does not seem to<br />be improving. Also, he has already said he will<br />not be coming back for another term, reducing<br />his desire to cater to constituents. However,<br />after revision, I realized that McConnell is an<br />extremely committed civil servant and 3 months of<br />recovery is a very long time, so I increased my<br />estimate.","Brian Sadenwasser (49%): I split my thinking into<br />two main questions that need to both be true in<br />order for the answer to be âyes.â Mitch McConnell<br />has to be physically able to vote (that includes<br />
306being alive). From the class discussion, I put<br />this at a 75% chance. With 53 Republican senators,<br />I believe the most likely situations in which<br />McConnellâs vote is truly necessary will be if<br />there is a contentious nomination vote in the<br />Senate or a vote on a reconciliation bill. I put<br />that at about 65%. Multiplying 75% and 65% gets me<br />to my 49% prediction.","Brianna Speizer (45%): I think there is a 45<br />percent chance that Mitch McConnell will make an<br />appearance and cast a vote in the US Senate before<br />November 19th. This is based on the fact that the<br />Senate is quite split, and votes may be coming up<br />that the Republican Party will need his vote to<br />aim towards getting a majority vote. Although, it<br />is not a higher probability here due to the fact<br />that he may be physically unable to go into the<br />chambers to cast his vote.","Caitlyn McMullen (40%): I have significantly<br />altered my answer since the class discussion.<br />I previously underestimated his injuries and<br />likelihood of survival and physical capability<br />considering his age and health conditions. With<br />the deadlocks in the Senate as well and the fact<br />that he is not running for reelection, I think it<br />is unlikely for McConnell to cast a vote. Although<br />the republican party needs his vote, he might not<br />be physical capable of providing it.","Carter Ray (35%): Mitch McConnell seems to be very<br />ill, with multiple sources previously reporting<br />that he is on death's door. However, it seems<br />he was released, and the chances he is currently<br />alive are rather high, and occam's razor says that<br />conspiracies are unlikely to be true. While there<br />is a small chance he returns, I believe it is more<br />on the unlikely side.","Celina Simone (23%): Currently Senator McConnell<br />is facing an uphill battle when it comes to his<br />health. There are a myriad of conditions that<br />could cause someone of his age to spontenously<br />faint and all of them are associated with a<br />stenous rehab process that will be aggravated by<br />his age and history of polio. They also all have<br />high rates of mortality associated with them, and<br />could significantly diminish his cognitive and<br />physical abilities. However, if McConnell is still<br />alive there are significant bills on the floor<br />his vote would help pass, but the Republican party<br />technically does have the margins to accomplish.","Christopher Heyl (80%): I decided to slightly<br />move my prediction down based on our discussions<br />in class yesterday. While I am confident that he<br />is certainly alive and probably still in rehab,<br />the fact that there still has not been any sign<br />of him in the past weeks is alarming and might be<br />indicative of a worsening condition.","Dean McDonald (85%): The senate will reconvene on<br />September 14th. Despite the health scare, the fact<br />that it was not something more severe (supposedly)<br />like a stroke or heart attack, but rather mild<br />pneumonia, means Mitch will most probably recover<br />enough to be wheeled into the chamber at some<br />point before November 19th, if not on September<br />14th. He does not need to be able to do anything<br />more than cast a vote, which was all he had done<br />for a period before the health scare anyway.<br />In addition, After the sudden death of Lindsay<br />Graham, the panic over Midterm predictions,<br />and Donald Trump's own health problems, the<br />Republicans need to prove that they are not old<br />and weak, and having Mitch out of action until<br />his term ends does not serve their goals; they<br />will get him back in, no matter what. I chose not<br />to put the probability at 100% only because he is<br />84 years old and could actually just die at any<br />moment completely unrelated to the health scare or<br />any event.","Dylan Goff (30%): A lot of my previous<br />prediction was based on the fact that I thought<br />reconcilliation was not able to be passed during<br />this session. However, because it will be allowed<br />to pass, there is far more reason for them to<br />be likley to drag him out for a vote. However, I<br />still think there is a high likleyhood his health<br />fails him and he simply wont be physically able to<br />come to the floor even if it is crucial","Edy Thompson (60%): The last time Mitch McConnell<br />cast a vote in public was June 11. He was<br />hospitalized for a few weeks and then discharged.<br />He has publicly stated he isnât well enough to<br />return to the floor yet, but has authorized proxy<br />votes. Because of this I think the probability<br />of him casting a vote in the US Senate before<br />November 19 is 60%","Ella Vars (3%): I am sticking to my initial<br />forecast. I believe that my reasoning of the<br />severity of Mitch's health condition was supported<br />by the research presented about the recovery rates<br />of cardiac arrest for people of his age group.<br />It seems likely that Mitch will have ongoing<br />issues with his health that will prevent him from<br />returning to the Senate.","Eva Carnes (36%): I view the likelihood of Mitch<br />McConnell being alive on November 19 extremely<br />low. With all of the breaks that the Senate is<br />going to encounter leading up to the midterms,<br />the amount of votes to be cast are low. Using<br />compounding probability with the chances of him<br />passing away being greater than 50% the likelihood<br />of him casting a vote is low.","Hailey Chae (35%): I initially forecasted<br />35%, and I will stick with that probability.<br />McConnell has been absent from the Senate since<br />
306being hospitalized in June and has spent time in<br />rehabilitation. Although he was discharged and<br />has said he intends to continue working, he has<br />not announced a specific date for returning to the<br />Capitol. Because it only would take one vote from<br />McConnell, there is a chance he could cast one by<br />November 19th.","Hannah Hartley (35%): While I initially believed<br />there would be a 50% chance that McConnell would<br />cast a vote, the information we received about<br />his supposed cardiac arrest and the likelihood<br />of recovery from that event, added onto his polio<br />history, makes me less likely that he will be able<br />to return to the Senate. On top of that, he could<br />be alive and just not well enough to make it in<br />for a physical vote. While I am not completely<br />certain all of this is the case, it made me cast<br />enough doubt that I lowered my prediction to 35%.","Haven Priem (30%): After hearing everyone's<br />thoughts including the one about the health of<br />older people following cardiac arrest I feel even<br />more confident that he will pass in the coming<br />months. However I did think it was an interesting<br />point that someone said that he is truly invested<br />in his job.","Isabella Picciano (65%): Unlike the UGA question,<br />this question is asking about whether or not<br />one event will happen. In Subjective/Bayesian<br />probability theory, we assess the statement about<br />the observerâs knowledge or âdegree of beliefâ<br />that this will or will not occur. Therefore,<br />we must use what we know and make an educated<br />guess based on that knowledge. We know that<br />McConnell is of older age, thereâs no definitive<br />return date, he hasnât been able to fulfill his<br />duties as senator since June. However, we also<br />know that he was recently released from rehab,<br />wants to continue his duties for this term,<br />and isnât needed for every vote for this answer<br />to be âyes.â He only has to attend one ballot<br />for the âyesâ prediction to follow through.<br />Weighing this information, I believe there is<br />a 65% chance that he casts a vote in the U.S.<br />Senate before November 19th. I would lower this<br />prediction if the question were asking whether<br />or not he would be present at all voting sessions<br />or whether he would have to cast a vote sooner<br />than November 19th. I would also alter this<br />prediction if we knew what the release of his<br />rehabilitation really entailed. For example, in<br />
306https://news.northeastern.edu/2026/08/19/sen-mitch-mcconnell-health-update/,<br />the author brings up President Woodrow Wilsonâs<br />stroke in 1919 which rendered him incapacitated.<br />Yet, with the help of Wilsonâs physician and<br />wife, the public never knew the severity of his<br />condition. Like Wilson, McConnellâs right to<br />privacy significantly conceals the amount of<br />information that would lead us to a more accurate<br />prediction for this question because we donât<br />fully know the extent of his condition.","Jacob Nabors (79%): Like what we talked about in<br />class, it is very unlikely that he is no longer<br />alive. This alone increases the odds that he would<br />place a vote. There are also several important<br />bills being considered right now that could<br />require his vote. He simply needs to be able to<br />show up and make enough of a gesture to cast his<br />vote.","Jason Eappen (85%): Mitch McConnell has been<br />noticabley abset from voting in the Senate Chamber<br />since his hosptialization that resulted from a<br />fall. He was absent for a couple of weeks and<br />there has not been any major updates regarding<br />his health. His staff espically has been very<br />quiet regarding when his timeline of returning<br />would be. However, with his recent release from<br />the rehibilation center, I believe that Senator<br />Mitch McConnell will be (sooner rather than later)<br />returning to Washington DC to fulfill his duties<br />as Senator and vote on major issues. Espically<br />with midterm elections coming up, it will be an<br />uphill batter for Republicans. Meaning, every vote<br />matters and counts. With presssure from President<br />Donald Trump, it will force Mitch McConnell<br />to return to Washington DC. According to news<br />reports, he has already been working from home<br />as he recovers. But it is fair to say, with signs<br />that his health is improving and a slight increase<br />in transparency regarding his health, I feel that<br />there is an 85% probability that Mitch McConnell<br />would vote on a meausre in the Senate Chamber<br />sooner rather than later.","Jordan Sanderson (26%): Mitch McConnell is not<br />planning for running on re-election and coupling<br />that with a low chance there will be legislation<br />for him to vote on, it is leaning more unlikely<br />he will cast a vote by November. It has been<br />reported, however, hat he is recovering well<br />after his discharge so he could be physically<br />capable of arriving to Senate when the time comes.<br />In terms of incentive, someone made the point<br />that despite his plans to retire he has a strong<br />respect for his political career and will likely<br />make the effort to go vote, so his strong values<br />and possibility of having great physical health<br />influence my choice to believe there is about a<br />26% chance.","Joshua Mui (85%): I still hold the belief that<br />Mitch McConnell is still alive, even though he<br />has been AWOL for quite some time. The closer<br />we get to midterms, the more confident I get in<br />this prediction as his death would cause unneeded<br />controversy that could potentially ruin the<br />Republican party. Currently he has no incentive<br />to appear in public, but when session starts<br />this fall I believe we will see him make a vote,<br />especially with such a close senate that may<br />require all hands on deck to get something to<br />pass.","Julia Krehbiel (60%): I am lowering my probability<br />a little bit because after hearing the chances<br />of death and not making a full recovering at his<br />age I feel like 75% chance might be too much of a<br />guarantee that he would show. However I do still<br />feel like he will still likely make a vote due to<br />the prominence of his name and lasting legacy that<br />he likely hopes to leave.","Kiefer Adams (30%): I didn't realize the severity<br />of McConnell's health condition, which is leading<br />me to downgrade my forecast. This changes my<br />mindset from \"will he choose to vote\" to \"will he<br />be capable of voting.\" With these health concerns<br />in mind, I am forecasting a 30% probability<br />McConnell will vote prior to November 19th.<br />However, because of the Republican need for his<br />vote, there is still a significant chance that he<br />will make every effort to be at the capitol and<br />cast a vote.","Krish Chinta (25%): Considering the severity of<br />a lengthy hospital stay at age 84 combined with a<br />Senate calendar that offers limited voting days,<br />I believe his chances of successfully returning<br />to cast a vote before November 19 are low, a fact<br />made worse by his team's lack of transparency on<br />the matter. Despite this, there is a need for him<br />to cast a tiebreaking vote to resolve the Senate<br />Agriculture Committee deadlock before the midterms<br />as well as other key issues, and the historic<br />medical bar required to cast a vote is quite low<br />(Clair Engle's vote for the Civil Rights Act),<br />which leads me a number around 25%.","Leah Mojica (60%): I think that there is a 60%<br />chance of Mitch McConnell casting a vote in the<br />Senate by November 19th. After our discussion in<br />class, there are still unknowns about his current<br />health, and given his age, he is likely to take<br />it easy in the next few months. However, he is<br />currently in DC and on the road to recovery, based<br />on what we currently know. Therefore, there may<br />be a chance of him making an appearance to vote by<br />November 19th.","Matthew Fern (30%): After talking with the class,<br />I would say that I am even a little less hesitant<br />now that Mitch McConnell will be voting. I do<br />not feel as though anyone was able to provide<br />any reasons why they believe he actually will be<br />voting. While they claim he may be worried about<br />his legacy, he has been in the Senate since 1985,<br />so I would argue he already has a pretty long one.<br />Additionally, I am wondering if he may be in his<br />Kentucky home while he heals, in which case the<br />journey back to D.C. may be too much for him to<br />handle.","Megan Tate (70%): I do still think it is more<br />likely than not that Mitch McConnell will cast a<br />vote in the US Senate before November 19. Bouncing<br />off a good point that I heard in class today,<br />McConnell has served in the US Senate for over 41<br />years, and he has a lot of respect for his legacy,<br />position, and Congress as a whole. Because of<br />his experience, I do not think he would let his<br />injury prevent him from casting at least one vote<br />before November 19, especially considering the<br />convenience of him living in DC. Even though his<br />age is a factor to consider, I still want to go<br />with my honest beliefs, similar to what we talked<br />about in class with the Brier Scores and âtruth<br />serumâ. So, I have revised my forecast from 65% to<br />70%.","Mera Moucharrafie (50%): This is as equally likely<br />to happen than not, 50%. Because the end of his<br />final term in the US Senate is January 3rd, 2027,<br />there is a significant probability that he will<br />want to cast votes on the remaining pressing<br />issues that arise: McConnell has already missed a<br />few important votes, like the War Power Resolution<br />vote and National Defense Authorization Act. After<br />further research from CBS News and BBC, McConnell<br />was discharged from the hospital on August 6th,<br />2026. He made a statement that he had not broken<br />any bones, and had no concussions or tumors.<br />McConnell was provided with excellent care and<br />will begin physical therapy.","Michelle Villanueva (65%): After considering the<br />arguments brought up in class, I became slightly<br />more confident that McConnell will cast atleast<br />one vote before Nov 19, especially considering<br />his continued updates about his recovery. He was<br />also recently released from rehabilitation and<br />is now continuing an intensive physical therapy<br />program at home, while staying engaged with all<br />that is happening at the Senate. I also think<br />the fact that McConnell is nearing the end of<br />his Senate career could actually make a vote more<br />likely. Since he is not running for reelection,<br />he may be motivated by the idea of participating<br />in an important vote as part of his legacy in the<br />Senate like someone mentioned in class. He has<br />spent decades in Congress, so even if he is not<br />able to return to a full schedule, I think there<br />is a possibility that he would make the effort<br />to return for at least one significant vote. My<br />increase in confidence was not that much though<br />(from initial 60% to revised 65%) because I do not<br />want to be too confident being that his recovery<br />has already taken longer than expected and he<br />has not given a specific date for returning to<br />the Senate. Everything regarding his recovery and<br />timeline has been somewhat unclear, so I still<br />think there is a some amount of uncertainty in my<br />prediction.","Parker Buckroyd (55%): McConnell has reportedly<br />returned back to his home to complete his<br />physical therapy as of early August. He has given<br />statements to the press as of August 6th, 2026,<br />weeks away from the Senate's return in September.<br />Wheelchairs and accommodations are common in the<br />Senate, and should pose no issue if McConnell were<br />required to use either in order to cast a vote<br />before November 19th. I believe public speculation<br />and rumors will motivate his return to vote,<br />especially on larger bills such as the NDAA that<br />will be on the floor soon. The Republican party is<br />in a position where they require his vote to pass<br />key legislation, leading me to the conclusion that<br />there is a 55% chance that he will cast a vote<br />before November 19th.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (23%): After the<br />explanations in class, I retract my baseline and<br />agree with some of the points I made before. As<br />I previously stated, McConnell is in a lame-duck<br />term, so he is not obligated to make a vote.<br />Furthermore, one of the great points one of my<br />peers raised in class was that the survival rate<br />after someone has a cardiac arrest is 23%. I<br />really thought this number aligned better with his<br />advanced age and also since he is not running for<br />reelection and does not owe anyone politically at<br />the end of this term and he is obviously retiring,<br />it is highly likely that he won't make a new<br />vote when the session starts, especially before<br />November 19th.","Sarah Gregory (37%): Slight change in my answer.<br />After reflecting on information shared by my<br />classmates, I think he is slightly more probable<br />to cast a vote due to pressure from the party<br />and current administration. Especially, with<br />
306the chance that congress will 'flip' after the<br />midterms. So, getting party priorities passed<br />is crucial. Original response: McConnell is<br />a lame duck, meaning he is not running for<br />reelection. This means he may face less scrutiny<br />for not participating in votes on the floor. He<br />recently made a statement that said he will not<br />be returning to the Senate to vote \"quite yet.\"<br />This statement indicates that he intends to return<br />eventually but not in the near future. His absence<br />has attracted a lot of public attention, even<br />attention from the Governor. This would increase<br />the probability of his return to the floor. I am<br />not confident that he is more likely than not to<br />return to the Senate floor to vote before November<br />19th. I feel 32 is a fair number.","Slate Jones (30%): Kalshi has the odds he returns<br />in September at 16 percent, and so the odds for<br />him returning even later should be even higher.<br />He is not running for reelection, so there is<br />less pressure than with an average politician who<br />has to worry about appealing to his base. Andy<br />beshear has said he hasnât gotten any information<br />about McConnells health, and there are political<br />motivations to diminish the severity of his<br />condition.","Will Steiner (85%): While there's a wide variety<br />of things that could go wrong with McConnell given<br />his health, the odds that McConnell actually dies<br />(or is otherwise incapable of voting) are pretty<br />slim. He's been in seemingly poor condition for<br />several years now, and it is likely he will be<br />able to hold out for a few months longer. The<br />small chance he dies or is otherwise physically<br />unable to travel multiplied by the also small<br />chance his vote is not required on something<br />results in a product of roughly 85%.","Ziyada Rakhimova (32%): My guess is Mitch<br />McConnell will know what most likely not be<br />casting his vote before November 19 due to his<br />debilitating health issues. According to some<br />of the correlations that were made during class<br />discussion, Mitch McConnell, most likely went into<br />cardiac arrest, and the chances of him being in<br />good enough health to go back to the Senate and<br />cast his vote is predictably low."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"triangle-up","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Student,1)","legendgroup":"(Student,1)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.14000000000000001,0.29999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.14000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.20999999999999999,0.40000000000000002,0.25,0.65000000000000002,0.25,0.29999999999999999,0.050000000000000003,0.75,0.14999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.75,0.14000000000000001,0.34000000000000002,0.34999999999999998,0.20000000000000001,0.25,0.25,0.13,0.14999999999999999,0.25,0.14999999999999999,0.25,0.29999999999999999,0.40000000000000002,0.25,0.29999999999999999,0.11,0.14999999999999999,0.16,0.67000000000000004],"y":[2.0979507542215288,1.9015531862527133,1.903193401824683,2.0972450871020554,1.8971818178892135,1.9557048317231238,2.0638858873583374,1.9088141018524767,2.0062295241467654,2.0215473330020903,1.8877088172920049,2.0935425582900642,2.0599789732694624,2.0921898492053153,1.9948903404176235,2.0053120235912503,1.9122891274280847,2.0437139450386166,1.9085481863655149,2.1155343170650305,2.114492249302566,2.0156849960051475,1.8982016292959452,1.9403006353415548,1.9213091653957963,2.0811818900704382,2.0001483595743776,1.9228192454390227,2.0860948160476984,2.0372621163353326,2.0520452754944563,1.8855332724750042,1.9228205952607096,2.06856108199805,2.0305347511172296,2.0561965359188616],"text":["Anya Biswas (14%): For Georgia to remain<br />undefeated on November 19, they would need to<br />win all 10 games, both away and home games. This<br />season UGA is facing some challenging opponents<br />like Alabama, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma. When I took<br />the compound interest of ESPN's Football Power<br />Index for UGA this season up until Nov 19, it<br />resulted in 14% chance. This index covers several<br />factors predicting the chance of UGA winning<br />against that team.","Bain Fulcher (30%): We play Alabama and Ole Miss<br />before November 19th, and those are two teams that<br />typically give us trouble. Also, they are away<br />games, so that will likely make it harder for us,<br />especially with Alabama since the rivalry is so<br />intense. Also, we have the youngest roster in all<br />of college football, so the lack of experience<br />might harm our performance.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (10%): No, I believe that<br />UGA will not be undefeated on November 19th.<br />Firstly, out of 10 years, UGA only remained<br />undefeated by November 19th in 2021, 2022, and<br />2023, so a 70% rate of losing before November<br />19th. Secondly, UGAâs toughest historic adversary,<br />Alabama, is scheduled to play against UGA on<br />October 10th, as an away game. Historically, UGA<br />has lost against Alabama, particularly in away<br />games.","Brian Sadenwasser (15%): UGA will play 10<br />games before Nov 19. I found a website that<br />
306has ESPN's predicted chance of winning for<br />each of UGA's games. I multiplied the first 10<br />percentages together to come up with a 14.49%<br />of being undefeated on Nov 19. One limitation<br />I found is that this assumes the games are<br />independent, which is likely not true. (Source:<br />https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/news/college-football/espns-fpi-predicts-the-outcome-of-every-game-on-georgias-2026-schedule/)","Brianna Speizer (14%): I do believe that UGA<br />will have a great season this year; however, Ole<br />miss and Alabama pose threats to an undefeated<br />season. UGA has historically had struggles against<br />Alabama, and the added factor that it will be an<br />away game adds to this. Similarly, UGA lost to Ole<br />miss last year in the Sugar Bowl which showcases a<br />significant stressor to this game, especially with<br />it being an away game.","Caitlyn McMullen (35%): I lowered my probability<br />after the class discussion. Due to our streak<br />against Alabama and Ole Miss, it is likely that we<br />will win one of the games, but probably not both.<br />Also, someone pointed out that the likelihood<br />of winning that many games undefeated is about a<br />30% chance from past seasons. The strength of our<br />schedule this year makes it unlikely that we will<br />be undefeated by November 19th.","Carter Ray (21%): While UGA is certainly a very<br />strong team, and unranked matchups are unlikely<br />to be a problem, not having lost one since 2019,<br />UGA faces an extremely strong schedule up until<br />November 19th including 4 ranked games. While I<br />favor UGA in each of those games by a significant<br />margin, the chances of winning all four ranked<br />games against fairly strong opponents does not<br />have a high likelihood in my opinion.","Celina Simone (40%): ESPN currently has given UGA<br />a 10.9% chance of going undefeated this football<br />season. This is because of opponents like Ole<br />Miss, Oklahoma, and Alabama. Ole Miss and Oklahoma<br />may be easier for the Bulldogs to overcome, as in<br />the past UGA has won 34 out of 50 games (however,<br />Ole Miss beat UGA in January 2026 at the Sugar<br />Bowl). Oklahoma only has a 23% chance of beating<br />UGA; however, some are saying this could be<br />their \"breakout\" season. The largest threat to<br />UGA's season is Alabama. Currently, Alabama has<br />a 46% chance of beating UGA before the season<br />has even begun. However, the game will be played<br />in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where UGA has had luck<br />before.","Christopher Heyl (25%): I am sticking with my<br />original prediction and going with 25%. Based on<br />FPI compound probability, preseason optimism, and<br />the chaotic nature of College Football 25% feels<br />like a good benchmark for this one. UGA's biggest<br />tests will be Alabama and Ole miss away. It is<br />likely, based on past seasons, that UGA drops one<br />of those two games.","Dean McDonald (65%): UGA's football team returned<br />most of the talent from last year, including<br />quarterback Gunner Stockton. Our record last<br />year of 12-2, with such a young team, leads most<br />predictions to place us even better due to the<br />experience gained last year, and the relatively<br />few lost players in this season.","Dylan Goff (25%): while i did think I erred<br />correctly on the fact that it was more likley than<br />not that uga didnt get a perfect season, I think<br />my odds where a bit high. I didnt know that both<br />alabama and old miss were away games. I also wasnt<br />aware with just how young our roster was, even if<br />our older guys are in the key positions this year.<br />However, I wouldnt say its certain because alabama<br />has the same problems, and old miss has a brand<br />new coach which means they may be a little slow to<br />start","Edy Thompson (30%): Georgia is a great team and<br />ranked at 3 in the AP preseason poll. Our schedule<br />isnât as difficult as last year. Our hardest<br />competition is going to Alabama and Ole Miss, both<br />away games. UGA is favored to win both of those<br />games but not by much. We also lost a few star<br />players to the NFL draft, which I didn't consider<br />in my first prediction. I originally said there<br />was a 45% chance we will be undefeated by November<br />19 but I am going to lower it to 30% chance.","Ella Vars (5%): While I believe UGA will finish<br />higher in the final season rankings than every<br />team on our schedule, after hearing the arguements<br />from my classmates, I feel like there is a 50%<br />chance we will lose at least one game. This loss<br />will likely be against Alabama or Ole Miss. Both<br />
306are teams we have lost to recently, and both are<br />away games, which puts us at a disadvantage.","Eva Carnes (75%): Considering the football<br />schedule that the University of Georgia has this<br />season, we are more likely to be undefeated than<br />we are not. We have around 7 easy games for this<br />season. The Oklahoma game is going to be a toss<br />up, the Alabama game will be a toss up and based<br />on our track record with Alabama we are more<br />likely to lose","Hailey Chae (15%): Georgia is currently ranked No.<br />3 nationally and is coming off a 12â2 season and<br />an SEC championship. However, going undefeated is<br />difficult because Georgia faces several strong SEC<br />opponents, including Alabama and, predicted this<br />season, Ole Miss. Based on research my colleagues<br />found, ESPNâs FPI gives Georgia a 58.1% chance<br />against Alabama and a 69% chance against Ole Miss.<br />Multiplying the win probabilities for Georgiaâs<br />first 10 games produces approximately a 14.5%<br />chance, which I rounded to 15%.","Hannah Hartley (20%): I revised my initial<br />
306prediction based on the class discussion, taking<br />into account the 3 out of 10 statistic, the former<br />game statistics brought up by other classmates,<br />and I took into account the newness of the team to<br />reduce my prediction from 40 to 20. I think that<br />the Ole Miss and Alabama games will test our teams<br />strength, but I still feel like there is a slight<br />potential for us to win them all.","Haven Priem (75%): Although many of our discussion<br />leaders said that it was unlikely we are<br />undefeated due to our level of competition this<br />season, I still believe that we have a good chance<br />at being undefeated. Aswell, in past years we have<br />done well during regular season as well.","Isabella Picciano (14%): Compound probability<br />can be used to calculate the probability of<br />this question because in order for the answer<br />to be âyes,â UGA must win against every team<br />theyâre scheduled to play up until November<br />19th. The answer requires a combination of<br />two or more events to occur. Because they<br />must beat Tennessee State AND Western Kentucky<br />AND Arkansas etc., we can calculate the<br />probability by multiplying the likelihood of<br />them actually winning every single game. I<br />used ââhttps://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/news/college-football/espns-fpi-predicts-the-outcome-of-every-game-on-georgias-2026-schedule/.<br />To do this. Sept 5: Tennessee State Tigers |<br />99.9% chance to win Sept 12: Western Kentucky<br />Hilltoppers | 98.1% chance to win Sept 19:<br />Arkansas Razorbacks | 90.2% chance to win Sept<br />26: Oklahoma Sooners | 77.0% chance to win Oct<br />3: Vanderbilt Commodores | 90.2% chance to win<br />Oct 10: Alabama Crimson Tide | 58.1% chance<br />to win Oct 17: Auburn Tigers | 84.4% chance<br />to win Oct 31: Florida Gators | 80.6% chance<br />to win Nov 7: Ole Miss Rebels | 69.0% chance<br />to win Nov 14: Missouri Tigers | 86.6% chance<br />to win Given these probabilities, we multiple<br />(.999)(.981)(.902)(.77)(902)(.581)(.844)(.806)(.69)(.866)<br />to get .144 or 14% probability that UGA goes<br />undefeated until November 19th","Jacob Nabors (34%): My initial estimate for<br />the probability did not take into the compound<br />probability factor. I was going off of how I<br />felt that the team would do. With this in mind, I<br />revised my estimate to be significantly lower to<br />keep in mind how compound probability works.","Jason Eappen (35%): There is a relativity small<br />chance that UGA Football stays undefeated during<br />the regular season. Their schedule is noticably<br />easier than it has been in recent years, but<br />there are some major red flags that arise as we<br />anaylze whether or not UGA can stay undefeated. I<br />think the biggest one is their must win againist<br />Alabama.That is by far the toughest challenge<br />UGA consistently faulters. Many before thought it<br />might have been againist Nick Saban that UGA could<br />not find a way to win. However, with their win<br />last year againist the Bulldogs, Alabama continues<br />to be a major problem for the UGA bulldogs to<br />over come. At the same time, it is not impossible<br />for them not to win. There is very much a world<br />where UGA can still win againist Alabama and<br />then the odds rise dramamtically that UGA can go<br />undefeated during the regular season. If we were<br />to build a prediction tree, the odds would remain<br />low until after the Alabama game, which the result<br />of the game would determine whether or not the<br />odds rise or fall. However, the UGA-Alabama game<br />does not pose the only challenge againist the UGA<br />football's team goal of remaining undefeated. UGA<br />would still face notoriously diffcult/dark horse<br />teams including Oklahoma and Georgia Tech. Both<br />team's do serve as \"spoiler\" teams that could<br />affect UGA's odds at going undefeated. Eve though<br />UGA can rise to the challenge, it does factor<br />againist the probability that UGA football can go<br />undefeated.","Jordan Sanderson (20%): Georgia winning BOTH of<br />their away games against Alabama and Ole Miss is a<br />slim chance. They have only won two games against<br />Alabama, and most of their difficult matches<br />line up before November. On top of that, we have<br />younger players that don't have he same experience<br />as veterans which could put us at a disadvantage.<br />Overall, I think we have a good shot of winning a<br />lot of games, but our away games can potentially<br />
306be standing in the way of the undefeated title.","Joshua Mui (25%): I had initially put 40, but<br />I want to revise the number to be lower. The<br />chance that UGA football drops at least one<br />game, particularly either @Alabama or @Ole Miss<br />is high enough that I'd put the likelihood of<br />going undefeated under 50%. Kirby Smart's record<br />against Alabama, even though it has a weakened<br />roster, makes me uneasy, as well as the strong<br />records both of those teams have at home over<br />the past 4 years (as well as Kaelen Deboer's<br />tenure). In addition, the Dawg's departures to<br />the NFL, particularly in terms of OL and WR make<br />me unsure on how strong the offense can be. While<br />I do not think that the combined FPI probability<br />number that people are leaning on is the most<br />fair estimate, I do believe it points in the right<br />direction. I only hold reservations because at the<br />end of the day this is Georgia football and weird<br />stuff happens all the time in sports.","Julia Krehbiel (25%): I am lowering my probability<br />because it was initially too high for my feelings<br />behind the reasons I donât think they will be<br />undefeated. I agree with the student in our class<br />that said they felt like we could win either ole<br />miss or Alabama but unlikely both. I think that<br />this was spot on and also made me think further<br />about the toll that these two games in such close<br />proximity will take on the team.","Kiefer Adams (13%): My answer for this remains the<br />same. I feel confident in my reasoning behind the<br />figure, although my gut says the Dawgs should be<br />undefeated through those games and win a National<br />Championship. I understand the desires to raise<br />the percentage to be closer to 25%, but playing<br />Alabama and Ole Miss on the road, not to mention<br />the other SEC road games that can be traditionally<br />difficult, is forcing me to stay lower.","Krish Chinta (15%): Asssuming independence,<br />multiplying ESPN's projected chance of UGA winning<br />each game until November 19th yields 14.36%,<br />which is probably slightly generous at this point.<br />Once adjusting the game at Alabama to a 50/50 and<br />the game at Ole Miss to be a 65/35, the number<br />I got was 11.65%. Because these outcomes are not<br />independent, I added five percentage points to<br />the chance of winning each game after the Alabama<br />game to account for the impact of the momentum<br />of a big rivalry win on outcomes, which led me to<br />14.66% that I will optimistically round to 15%.<br />My reasoning is unchanged after hearing the class<br />discussion.","Leah Mojica (25%): I think that there is a 25%<br />chance that UGA football will be undefeated on<br />November 19th. Originally, I thought it was more<br />like 40%, but after our discussion in class, I<br />believe that the chance of them being undefeated<br />is even lower. This is because someone mentioned<br />that UGA has lost the majority of times they've<br />played against Alabama, so according to those<br />trends, there is a good chance UGA will lose to<br />them again this season.","Matthew Fern (15%): Having listened into class<br />discussion today, I do not feel inclined to adjust<br />my forecasted probability. It would appear that<br />most people generally agree on the probability<br />being in the 10-20% chance of happening range, and<br />it seems that there are some additional outside<br />agencies that tend to agree.","Megan Tate (25%): I initially estimated that there<br />is a 19% probability that UGA will be undefeated<br />on November 19. However, after the discussion in<br />class today and hearing everyoneâs explanations<br />behind their forecasts, I realized that my<br />original probability might have been too largely<br />based on mathematical calculation and ESPNâs<br />scores rather than my own personal judgement. I<br />have confidence in UGAâs performance this season,<br />but I am also taking into account the Alabama<br />and Ole Miss games. Those two teams, especially<br />Alabama, are always a weak spot for Georgia, and I<br />believe a lot of this season will rely on that. As<br />a result, I have revised my probability from 19%<br />to 25% that UGA will be undefeated on November 19.","Mera Moucharrafie (30%): A few of UGA's games this<br />season have high odds, such as TN State and WKU,<br />because usually the easiest games are played at<br />home against teams that are significantly smaller<br />that may not have as many athletic resources as<br />UGA. If we base this off of the first two games<br />
306since 2023, their odds are 100% in winning those<br />games. However, games like Alabama (where UGA's<br />record was 1-3) and Ole Miss (where UGA's record<br />was 2-2) in the past three years, are harder<br />to guarantee an undefeated record. With this<br />information and the ESPN Football Power Index<br />giving Georgia an overall score of 24.8%, this<br />puts my prediction at a 30% (with a little bit of<br />rounding).","Michelle Villanueva (40%): After considering<br />the arguments brought up in class, I changed<br />my initial prediction of 52% that UGA will be<br />undefeated by November 19. I still think an<br />undefeated season is possible because Georgia is<br />entering the season ranked #3 in the preseason<br />polls, has a strong coaching staff under Kirby<br />Smart, and has players like Gunner Stockton<br />who give me confidence in the team's ability to<br />perform. However, I think I originally focused too<br />much on Georgia's ranking and last year's success<br />without considering some of the uncertainties<br />surrounding this year's team. One argument that<br />stood out to me was that we lost several important<br />players to the NFL, which could create possible<br />weaknesses in our team this season. We also<br />have a very young roster, meaning there is less<br />experience going into some of our most difficult<br />games. This could be especially important in away<br />games against Alabama and Ole Miss. Additionally,<br />the history between Georgia and Alabama is making<br />me less confident, since Alabama has historically<br />been a difficult opponent for Georgia, regardless<br />if we beat them in the SEC Championship, we still<br />lost in the regular season last year. Still, I<br />don't think the probability is as low as some of<br />the discussion leaders predicted. Georgia is still<br />one of the highest ranked teams, and preseason<br />projections give the team a strong chance of<br />winning most of its games. I also think there is<br />a realistic possibility that Georgia could beat<br />at least one of its toughest opponents. Therefore,<br />I am lowering my prediction from initial 52% to<br />revised 40% because I realized that an undefeated<br />season is more difficult than I originally<br />thought, especially with the team's youth, loss<br />of key players, and several competitive games on<br />the schedule. However, I still think Georgia has<br />a realistic chance of making it to November 19<br />without a loss.","Parker Buckroyd (25%): Considering the team lost<br />0 away games last year, but our two losses from<br />the 2025 season happen to be away games in the<br />2026 season, I believe there is a 25% chance<br />UGA football will be undefeated by November<br />19th because of the small chance we beat both<br />Alabama and Ole Miss. The fact that we are a<br />young team with a weaker receiver roster, weaker<br />o-line, and lack strong senior leadership makes<br />me skeptical on how UGA will perform under such<br />intense pressure. There runs a large risk of the<br />high stake game environments impacting overall<br />performance against both teams.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (30%): My forecasting<br />remains the same. The points raised in class were<br />similar to what I had in mine and the class score<br />was 32. Although those factors are insignificant<br />to my own forecasting and the reasoning for<br />such, I still think that the ratio is 0.25 for<br />safe schools that I mentioned were TN State,<br />W Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and<br />Missouri and the competitive schools were Alabama,<br />Auburn and Florida, which makes it so that it<br />is highly unlikely that UGA will be undefeated<br />according to our record of 26/76 (35%) of winning<br />in the amount of years we have been playing them.","Sarah Gregory (11%): Same response as before.<br />After multiplying each of Georgia footballs<br />win percentages per regular season game, I got<br />the probability 10.9%. I then rounded up. This<br />probability means Georgia would go undefeated<br />about 1 time in every 9 seasons. I also looked<br />at the win percentages and preseason spreads<br />during the 2021, 2022, and 2023 undefeated regular<br />seasons to see how accurate they were. Overall,<br />they were primarily accurate leading me to have<br />confidence that Georgia football has a 11% chance<br />of going undefeated in the 2026 regular season.<br />Win percentages are not the only factor or measure<br />of how Georgia's team will preform. Georgia's<br />team is the youngest in the nation. We lack<br />experience which can be a strong indicator that<br />we will struggle against teams like Alabama, Ole<br />Miss, Oklahoma, and Florida. I also looked for an<br />expert opinions on the matter. ESPN believes that<br />Georgia will go undefeated this season. The reason<br />I estimate an 11% probability is because even<br />though some data and expert opinion suggests we<br />will go undefeated, I believe that there are too<br />many unpredictable factors to give a more likely<br />probability that Georgia will go undefeated in the<br />2026 regular season.","Slate Jones (15%): UGA faces many tough games this<br />season against bama and ole miss, and the chances<br />they win all of them are very low. They have a new<br />receiving core, and may be offensively stunted.<br />While they have a solid chance of beating one of<br />these teams, both makes the odds significantly<br />lower, let alone the other games that are<br />virtually guaranteed but when compounded with the<br />more difficult games makes the odds very low.","Will Steiner (16%): The Football Power Index puts<br />Georgia at a 10.9 percent chance of going entirely<br />undefeated this season, mostly on account of their<br />easy schedule. My prediction is slightly higher<br />than the FPI's because our cutoff does not account<br />for the game against GT or against South Carolina.<br />However, I am no football expert, and there are<br />too many possibilities for upsets for me to go any<br />higher on this prediction.","Ziyada Rakhimova (67%): After class discu
306ssion<br />and thorough revisions, UGA football will more<br />likely not be undefeated by November because of<br />the stated: UGA has a reputation of being a big<br />football team and had some strong contenders<br />in the past who they won against in Ole Miss<br />and Alabama although the reputation has not<br />consistently been wins at least they have one in<br />the past year. This is a good rep for them most<br />likely builds morale and will encourage them to<br />try a little hard harder and play hard harder this<br />year too."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Student,2)","legendgroup":"(Student,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.5,0.5],"y":[0.40000000000000002,2.6000000000000001],"text":"","type":"scatter","mode":"lines","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,0.3)","dash":"dash"},"hoveron":"points","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":23.305936073059364,"r":7.3059360730593621,"b":37.260273972602747,"l":157.07762557077629},"paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.611872146118724},"xaxis":{"domain":[0,1],"automargin":true,"type":"linear","autorange":false,"range":[-0.050000000000000003,1.05],"tickmode":"array","ticktext":["0%","25%","50%","75%","100%"],"tickvals":[0,0.25,0.5,0.75,1],"categoryorder":"array","categoryarray":["0%","25%","50%","75%","100%"],"nticks":null,"ticks":"","tickcolor":null,"ticklen":3.6529680365296811,"tickwidth":0,"showticklabels":true,"tickfont":{"color":"rgba(77,77,77,1)","family":"","size":11.68949771689498},"tickangle":-0,"showline":false,"linecolor":null,"linewidth":0,"showgrid":true,"gridcolor":"rgba(235,235,235,1)","gridwidth":0.66417600664176002,"zeroline":false,"anchor":"y","title":{"text":"Probability","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.611872146118724}},"hoverformat":".2f"},"yaxis":{"domain":[0,1],"automargin":true,"type":"linear","autorange":false,"range":[0.40000000000000002,2.6000000000000001],"tickmode":"array","ticktext":["Will Mitch McConnell cast<br />a vote in the US Senate<br />before November 19?","Will UGA football be<br />undefeated on November<br />19?"],"tickvals":[1,2],"categoryorder":"array","categoryarray":["Will Mitch McConnell cast<br />a vote in the US Senate<br />before November 19?","Will UGA football be<br />undefeated on November<br />19?"],"nticks":null,"ticks":"","tickcolor":null,"ticklen":3.6529680365296811,"tickwidth":0,"showticklabels":true,"tickfont":{"color":"rgba(77,77,77,1)","family":"","size":11.68949771689498},"tickangle":-0,"showline":false,"linecolor":null,"linewidth":0,"showgrid":true,"gridcolor":"rgba(235,235,235,1)","gridwidth":0.66417600664176002,"zeroline":false,"anchor":"x","title":{"text":"","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.611872146118724}},"hoverformat":".2f"},"shapes":[],"showlegend":false,"legend":{"bgcolor":null,"bordercolor":null,"borderwidth":0,"font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":11.68949771689498}},"hovermode":"closest","barmode":"relative"},"config":{"doubleClick":"reset","modeBarButtonsToAdd":["hoverclosest","hovercompare"],"showSendToCloud":false,"displayModeBar":false},"source":"A","attrs":{"29581aef5b80":{"x":{},"y":{},"colour":{},"fill":{},"shape":{},"text":{},"type":"scatter"},"295870b63249":{"xintercept":{}}},"cur_data":"29581aef5b80","visdat":{"29581aef5b80":["function (y) ","x"],"295870b63249":["function (y) ","x"]},"highlight":{"on":"plotly_click","persistent":false,"dynamic":false,"selectize":false,"opacityDim":0.20000000000000001,"selected":{"opacity":1},"debounce":0},"shinyEvents":["plotly_hover","plotly_click","plotly_selected","plotly_relayout","plotly_brushed","plotly_brushing","plotly_clickannotation","plotly_doubleclick","plotly_deselect","plotly_afterplot","plotly_sunburstclick"],"base_url":"https://plot.ly"},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>
306 307</div> 308</div> 309</section> 310<section id="week-2-91" class="level2"> 311<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="week-2-91">Week 2 (9/1)</h2> 312<div class="cell"> 313<div class="cell-output-display"> 314<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-83ff450df404c5fa4a5f" style="width:100%;height:464px;"></div>
315<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-83ff450df404c5fa4a5f">{"x":{"data":[{"x":[0.69999999999999996,0.84999999999999998],"y":[0.91736531153321266,3.1057484594173728],"text":["Crowd (70%)","Crowd (85%)"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"triangle-up","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Crowd,1)","legendgroup":"(Crowd,1)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.75],"y":[1.9928353042341769],"text":"Crowd (75%)","type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Crowd,2)","legendgroup":"(Crowd,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.84999999999999998],"y":[3.1043337616883218],"text":"Joe Ornstein (85%): I don't put much faith in<br />industry tracking numbers a week from release<br />(before presale data is available), but to the<br />extent that they're biased, these projections<br />typically *underestimate* a film's opening box<br />office. Combine that with the fact that the first<br />Practical Magic was a historic flop, and I think<br />we can be pretty confident the sequel will have a<br />stronger opening weekend than its predecessor.","type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"triangle-up","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Joe Ornstein,1)","legendgroup":"(Joe Ornstein,1)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.84999999999999998],"y":[2.0207338425889612],"text":"Joe Ornstein (85%): It would be surprising, but<br />not *unimaginably* surprisingly, for Hegseth<br />to lose his position in the next two and a half<br />months. It would require a crisis so severe that<br />Republican leaders (besides Thom Tillis) start<br />putting pressure on Trump to remove him. We're<br />at war, so such crises could happen. But I don't<br />expect it by the end of the semester.","type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","legendgroup":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.75,0.84999999999999998,0.75,0.90000000000000002,0.69999999999999996,0.90000000000000002,0.67000000000000004,0.82999999999999996,0.63,0.84999999999999998,0.84999999999999998,0.80000000000000004,0.94999999999999996,0.69999999999999996,0.75,0.69999999999999996,0.94999999999999996,0.80000000000000004,0.69999999999999996,0.34999999999999998,0.80000000000000004,0.41999999999999998,0.84999999999999998,0.65000000000000002,0.90000000000000002,0.69999999999999996,0.80000000000000004,0.66000000000000003,0.75,0.90000000000000002,0.84999999999999998,0.84999999999999998,0.20000000000000001,0.94999999999999996,0.69999999999999996,0.84999999999999998,0.41999999999999998,0.80000000000000004,0.59999999999999998,0.80000000000000004,0.65000000000000002,0.68000000000000005,0.80000000000000004,0.25,0.20000000000000001,0.25,0.75,0.94999999999999996,0.84999999999999998,0.93999999999999995,0.65000000000000002,0.94999999999999996,0.75,0.84999999999999998,0.69999999999999996,0.75,0.5,0.80000000000000004,0.69999999999999996,0.80000000000000004,0.65000000000000002,0.80000000000000004,0.59999999999999998,0.80000000000000004,0.51000000000000001,0.87,0.84999999999999998,0.94999999999999996,0.90000000000000002,0.90000000000000002,0.25,0.84999999999999998],"y":[1.0105707544274629,3.02244893129915,0.95571280464529995,2.972074255719781,1.0396816602535546,2.8941331761516631,1.0303024553321303,3.0003524508699773,1.0768138655833901,3.1072204824909568,3.0645084744505584,1.0971124026924373,3.0258555540628733,1.0561702536791564,3.0087454359792174,0.97777885200455783,3.0233353613130749,0.90882435012608764,3.0449708581902089,0.93791736746206877,3.0294673292152585,0.88642490228638049,3.0290763175673785,1.0434673957712948,2.8935587757825854,1.0802836103923619,2.9898020275309682,3.1159788770601153,0.96334432849660512,2.9110515213198962,1.0439222608692944,3.1039648098684847,0.89060772247612474,3.1063222014717757,0.90776220770552751,3.0343528169207277,0.89681445097550749,2.952871143165976,1.006034761071205,2.9662680098600687,1.0054448334500194,3.0011372343823313,0.8873420715332031,2.9798289676755667,0.91275584409013388,3.083164549805224,0.96599114313721657,3.0043663870543242,0.92114221498370175,3.0207388943061231,1.1140007474645972,3.0975068059377371,0.93729297557845714,2.9815135971084237,0.9165071483701468,2.8980080378986894,0.92016395261511208,3.0123789774253966,1.066736314855516,2.9467015325278045,0.88344312679022552,3.0640350803174079,1.0033764300309123,3.0003837022371589,0.98914891896769408,3.04661757286638,1.0396743819117547,2.9407165871188043,1.1025036944448947,3.0008786463551225,1.0686745613999664,2.8845265932194888],"text":["Anya Biswas (75%): The current regulation limiting<br />products to less than 0.4 milligrams of total THC<br />would go into effect on November 12. The stopgap<br />funding bill, there is a hemp ban delay this<br />regulation pushing it to only go into effect on<br />December 11. The Senate rejected Sen. Ted Buddâs<br />amendment to remove the delay from the funding<br />bill with a 61-31 vote and passed the overall<br />bill with a 90-6 vote. Now it must pass in the<br />House, however since it is included in the stopgap<br />funding bill, many legislators do not want to<br />risk another major government shutdown. Trump also<br />supports this delay, so conservative Republicans<br />may be less likely to vote against the entire<br />funding bill.","Anya Biswas (85%): The first Practical Magic<br />earned $13.1 million in 1998 which is equivalent<br />to roughly twice that much today $26.7 million. It<br />has gained a cult following, but it is rated very<br />low by critics. Since it already has its audience<br />and the actresses are famous, it increases the<br />audience, and the last two movies received popular<br />attention.","Bain Fulcher (75%): Legislation that would delay<br />the new restrictions has already passed in the<br />Senate, so it is reasonable to believe that<br />it will pass in the House as well. Also, the<br />president is in favor of the delay, which will<br />likely influence the outcome of the vote.","Bain Fulcher (90%): The projected opening range<br />of Practical Magic 2 is $40M- $54M, which is much<br />more than the earnings of Practical Magic, which<br />would be equivalent to about $26.7M today. Even<br />the lowest end of the projected opening range<br />($35M-$40M) significantly clears the earnings<br />of the prequel. Practical Magic was considered<br />a financial and critical flop when it was first<br />released in 1998, but later gained in popularity<br />and now has a \"cult following.\" Both of these<br />factors increase the likelihood that the opening<br />weekend domestic box office for Practical Magic 2<br />will exceed that of Practical magic.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (70%): Yes, Congress will<br />most likely delay federal restrictions on THC<br />products. Section 781 of P.L. 119-37, has already<br />been delayed once as a part of FY2027 voting<br />in the Senate. The delay has pushed decisions<br />from 11/12 to 12/11. Also, a delay has general<br />bipartisan support, even from President Trump. The<br />only reason I answered lower is because the House<br />still has to agree.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (90%): Yes, it will exceed<br />Practical Magic. Practical Magic made $13 million<br />in its opening weekend domestic box office,<br />which adjusted for inflation is $26-27 million.<br />Currently, EmpireCity Box Office is predicting<br />$40M+ for Practical Magic 2, while Box Office<br />Theory is at $46.5M, both of which are much higher<br />than the domestic box office opening weekend<br />for Practical Magic. This is being reported by<br />WorldofReel, which in the past has correctly<br />estimated opening weekend success. For example,<br />WorldofReel originally estimated that Disclosure<br />Dayâs opening weekend would garner $40 million.<br />The movie ended up gaining $43 million.","Brian Sadenwasser (67%): The House needs to<br />pass the Senateâs stopgap funding bill. Because<br />neither party wants to be blamed for a government<br />shutdown, I think it is highly likely a stopgap<br />funding bill will be passed and I think it is<br />likely that this version will be passed. I am<br />70% a stopgap bill will be passed with a THC ban<br />delay. The President will then need to sign the<br />bill. He doesn't want to be blamed for a shutdown<br />and the administration has supported the delay.<br />I am 95% he will support the bill. That puts my<br />prediction at 67%.","Brian Sadenwasser (83%): According to an August<br />14 article by Box Office Pro, Practical Magic<br />2âs projected domestic opening weekend range<br />
315is $30M-40M. The article compares the movie<br />to Freakier Friday (a 2025 reboot of similar<br />characteristics), which had a $28.5M domestic<br />opening. I think that is a fair comparison and<br />gives the $30M-40M prediction more context. For<br />that reason, I am 83% that Practical Magic 2âs<br />domestic opening will be more than $26.7M.","Brianna Speizer (63%): I think the odds that<br />Congress passes legislation to delay new federal<br />restrictions on hemp derived thc products is quite<br />high as legislators are still trying to figures<br />out all the nuances of the bill. The amendment to<br />strip the language of the bill with the delay, and<br />instead keeping the original ban, was tabled with<br />an overwhelming vote. I believe that something<br />similar will happen with the House working on this<br />bill in order to give them more time to work out<br />the details.","Brianna Speizer (85%): I think there is a 85%<br />chance that the opening weekend for Practical<br />Magic 2 will exceed that of Practical Magic<br />(adjusted for inflation) due to the following<br />of the first edition. The first film was not<br />immediately popular for its opening weekends,<br />however, it later gained a large following. Due to<br />the large following it has gained, I believe that<br />the second movie will gain much more traction for<br />its opening weekend.","Caitlyn McMullen (85%): The biggest consideration<br />for me is the fact that the original Practical<br />Magic was not a very big success when it first<br />came out. Alternatively, the sequel has a lot<br />of promo and is featuring the big-name original<br />actresses Kidman and Bullock. The likelihood of<br />the sequel making more on box office weekend than<br />the original is more than likely. The biggest<br />drawback is the fact that some people may not<br />actually attend the movie theater for opening<br />weekend. However, I think the large marketing<br />budget and the hype around this cult classic will","Carter Ray (80%): The Senate has already passed<br />a bill that would delay implementation by a month<br />which is waiting house approval. President Trump<br />and the White House along with a bipartisan group<br />of lawmakers have expressed support for delaying<br />the ban. However, there are also groups such as<br />attorneys general who have supported the ban,<br />along with some doctor's groups, which could<br />ultimately lead to the bill to extend the delay<br />being delayed itself or killed.","Carter Ray (95%): With Practical Magic 1<br />having a weak box office showing of just $26M<br />in inflation-adjusted dollars, it seems that<br />the second movie has an easy shot at doing<br />significantly better. The first film was generally<br />considered a box-office flop, but has reportedly<br />since grown a cult following in the decades<br />afterwards. In addition, nostalgia for 90's era<br />movies has been a trend recently, contributing to<br />a strong chance of success. Finally, multiple box<br />office predicting services have estimated opening<br />weekend at approximately $40-45M, a 50% margin to<br />beat $26M.","Celina Simone (70%): There is a high likliehood<br />that Congress will delay or prevent the<br />restrictions on hemp-derived products, due to the<br />President's support of the delay, the lobbying<br />efforts by affiliated organizations, and support<br />of these products by average Americans. The<br />majority of these groups, and the president are<br />advocating for regulation rather than restriction,<br />and it currently seems the only support of bans<br />are members of the GOP rather than more moderate<br />or MAGA Republicans, as well as Democrats.","Celina Simone (75%): Practical Magic Two is still<br />expected to have a highly successful box office.<br />With pumpkin spice season ramping up, the main<br />actors returning, and this year being a great year<br />for sequels there is little standing in its way.<br />Predictions still estimate itâll make around 40<br />million in total box office. The only thing that<br />could inhibit its success is its opening day is on<br />9/11 and the possible quality of the movie.","Christopher Heyl (70%): Currently, the ban on<br />THC products is set to take effect on November<br />12, however there is much discussion right now on<br />the hill of delaying this ban by 1 month, which<br />would satisfy this question. Currently, according<br />to Politico the Trump administration has been<br />privately lobbying Republican members of Congress<br />to support a delay, and importantly, there already<br />is a funding bill passed out of the senate that<br />would delay the ban that simply needs to clear<br />the house. Put together, it seems as if pressure<br />to pass a delay is mounting with a fair degree of<br />bipartisan support. While the Trump administration<br />has had a tough track record getting Senate<br />Republican support (ex. The SAVE Act), the<br />Republican led house has been much easier for<br />the administration to sway and Mike Johnson will<br />likely reign in Rep Andy Harris if he chooses to<br />push back too strongly. Since there is an existing<br />bill that Trump's team supports already out of<br />the Senate, I think it is more likely than not the<br />House can get this done.","Christopher Heyl (95%): Based on discu
315ssions in<br />class today I have chosen to stick with my initial<br />prediction of 95%. It seems the temperature of<br />the room is fairly confident that the release of<br />this film is going to get enough people to the box<br />office to gross well. I was unaware of how much of<br />a cult like following this film had, and hearing<br />from other students today about the advertisements<br />and trendiness of this IP has reinforced my belief<br />that it will meet its current projections and<br />easily surpass 26.7 million opening weekend.","Dean McDonald (80%): A search online reveals that<br />the continuing resolution to keep funding the<br />government contains a provision to delay the ban,<br />and this continuing resolution has already passed<br />the Senate and is entering the House. An amendment<br />to remove the ban delay from the resolution<br />was killed by a vote of 61-32, signaling strong<br />bipartisan support for delaying the ban. In<br />addition, bipartisan legislation (Beverage<br />Regulatory Parity Act) was introduced in the House<br />that would allow hemp-derived beverages to remain<br />legal. Notably, the republican who introduced<br />it is from Texas, a traditionally conservative<br />state. The bipartisan support in both the House<br />and Senate strongly suggests that some form of<br />legislation will be passed to prevent or delay the<br />ban. Of course, the massive lobbying effort from<br />the industry helps.","Dean McDonald (70%): The first movie did not fare<br />well at either the box office nor with critics,<br />which already sets a rather low bar for the sequel<br />to hit, which is helpful. However, the main reason<br />behind my prediction is the cult following that<br />developed around the original film post-release,<br />and the current wave of millennial nostalgia for<br />the 90's and 00's. The combination of a low bar<br />and large following bodes well for the movie.<br />In addition, forecasts already put the opening<br />weekend at over $30,000,000, higher than the<br />inflation-adjusted original at around $27,000,000","Denton Alexander (35%): The current legislation<br />that the house has already passed does not contain<br />provisions about a delay the definition regarding<br />hemp-derived THC products. However, there is a<br />lot of proposed legislation that would delay new<br />federal restrictions. But, there was already an<br />enacted continuing resolution that delays the new<br />hemp definition until after November 19th, so I do<br />not think they will do another one (at least until<br />after our time frame).","Denton Alexander (80%): It is very likely that<br />the sequel of Practical Magic will outdo the<br />original. People love to feel nostalgia and to<br />be reminiscent of the past, which people who<br />both watched in the theaters as well as on demand<br />will want to do. The estimated opening weekend is<br />already over 3 times higher than the original.","Dylan Goff (42%): I think that if this wasnt an<br />election year, this would be a very different<br />answer. Republicans have shown an increase drive<br />in order to pass anti-pot legislation. However,<br />legalization is one of the few issues that most<br />americans support. Any efforts to repeal it gives<br />moderate republicans another attack add that<br />could be used againts them, making the bill as<br />a whole unlikley to pass. This, in combination<br />with the pro-marijuana stances taken by the trump<br />administraion, gives a lot of reason for the bill<br />to not pass. However, there is a decent cop out<br />by the congress by saying its simply new federal<br />restrictions and that they had nothing to do with<br />it. Overall I would not be very confident in any<br />aswer","Dylan Goff (85%): Overall, I saw little reason for<br />adjustment in this score. Most of the class was in<br />relative consensus over the view. I think pointing<br />out that the total movie going population was far<br />more in the 80s than it was today was a very valid<br />point, but is overall counteracted by the change<br />in ticket price","Edy Thompson (65%): I think there is a 65% chance<br />
315Congress will pass legislation to prevent or<br />delay new federal restrictions on hemp-derived<br />THC products from taking effect before November<br />19. The delay is attached to the government<br />funding bill, which needs to pass by September<br />30th. The senate already approved the delay and<br />Trump is pushing for it too. However, some House<br />Republicans are trying to remove that piece from<br />the bill, and the Houseâs own earlier bills didnât<br />include the delay to begin with. So itâs likely,<br />but there is still a chance it doesnât happen.","Edy Thompson (90%): I think it is very likely<br />that the opening weekend domestic box office for<br />Practical Magic 2 exceeds that of Practical Magic.<br />Practical Magic (1998) brought in $13.1M, which<br />is about $26 million in 2026. Currently, experts<br />estimate Practical Magic 2 to make anywhere<br />between $30-46.5M. However, these estimates can<br />sometimes be off, so for that I give it a 90%<br />chance the box office exceeds Practical Magic<br />(1998).","Ella Vars (70%): Considering how overwhelming<br />the vote was to delay the new THC bill in the<br />Senate (90-6), I beileve that the House of<br />Representatives will agree to pass this bill.<br />If they were to strike it down, they would risk<br />government shutdown, which would be very bad right<br />before an election. For sake of cohesivity in the<br />government, I believe the House will approve this<br />delay.","Ella Vars (80%): I beileve my initial prediction<br />is correct. Between the forecasts for opening<br />weekend earnings, the performance of other sequels<br />recently, and the recent trending of this movie<br />on streaming platforms, this movie should do<br />relatively well in the box office. The return of<br />famous actresses and the heavy marketing for this<br />movie further support this conclusion.","Eva Carnes (66%): The cast for this film is<br />extremely similar to the original cast. However,<br />the cast is much more known now than during<br />the original. Practical Magic 2 has not been<br />advertised as much as I was expecting, therefore<br />it may not do as well in the box office.","Hailey Chae (75%): I think there is about a<br />75% chance that Congress will pass legislation<br />to prevent or delay the new restrictions on<br />hemp-derived THC products. The Senate passed a<br />temporary funding bill in a 90-6 vote, pushing<br />back the start date for the new hemp restrictions<br />from November 12 to December 11, 2026. But some<br />disagreements remain in the House; for example,<br />several standalone bills, such as the Beverage<br />Regulatory Act, have been introduced to tax and<br />regulate low-dose hemp drinks instead of banning<br />them, but they are currently stuck in committee.","Hailey Chae (90%): The original made about $13.1<br />million during its opening weekend in 1998, while<br />current predictions for the sequel are around<br />$30â40 million or higher. The original also has<br />a pretty big following now, and having Sandra<br />Bullock and Nicole Kidman return could bring in<br />both fans of the original and new viewers. Because<br />of this, I think it is very likely the sequel will<br />have a bigger opening.","Hannah Hartley (85%): Due to the Senate already<br />passing a stopgap funding measure that would<br />postpone the government's regulations on Hemp THC,<br />I believe there is a strong chance that the House<br />will pass it as well in a vote, as it is grouped<br />in with the budget. Especially with elections<br />coming up, it is likely that this regulation will<br />be decided after, as politicians are working on<br />their campaigns and will not want a government<br />
315shutdown.","Hannah Hartley (85%): After the class discussion,<br />I strongly believe that Practical Magic 2 will<br />surpass the $26.7 million needed. With the<br />increase in popularity of watching sequels<br />and going to the movie theater, along with the<br />increasing level of popularity of the movie<br />itself, I believe it will surpass its original<br />box-office earnings.","Haven Priem (20%): I feel like with the<br />republicans controlling Congress right now, it's<br />unlikely that this legislation gets passed before<br />November 19th. With midterms and new members of<br />the house and senate about to join I just feel<br />like even if the democrats control Congress<br />following the election they still","Haven Priem (95%): I still believe that it will<br />outperform the first one because it is more of an<br />established name now. What I mean by that is when<br />the first one came out everyone was unsure of how<br />it would do, now with the second one people want<br />to see it because they saw the first one.","Isabella Picciano (70%): To assign probability<br />on whether or not Congress passes legislation<br />to prevent or delay new federal restrictions on<br />hemp-derived THC products from taking effect, we<br />can use Bayesian/subjective interpretation because<br />it is a one time political event that cannot be<br />repeated. In order to do this, we must approach<br />the question based on the observerâs knowledge<br />or degree of belief. In 2018, Congress passed the<br />Farm Bill which legalized and defined hemp as a<br />type of cannabis containing 0.3% delta-9 THC or<br />less. This enabled companies to grow an industry<br />in selling products like gummies, drinks, and<br />vapes. But in November 2025, Congress passed<br />a new definition of hemp legally permitted.<br />Instead of products containing 0.3% delta-9 THC<br />or less, legal hemp was now only allowed to have<br />a total THC content of 0.3% and 0.4 milligrams<br />per container, with enforcement beginning in<br />November 2026. This new definition would exclude<br />most products sold under the previous one. In<br />January 2026, lawmakers introduced a bill that<br />would delay the restriction for two years so that<br />the industry had ample time to adjust what they<br />were producing. This bill failed. In June of 2026,<br />the White House urged Congress to delay or revise<br />the restrictions and opt to better regulate the<br />products rather than essentially prohibiting them<br />entirely. In August 2026, the Senate revised the<br />bill, postponing the billâs enforcement through<br />December 11th, 2026. They also rejected a proposal<br />to remove the delay completely by 61-32 and passed<br />the complete funding bill containing the December<br />11th delay by 90-6. With this established, the<br />House must now accept the Senateâs new version of<br />the bill, remove the delay provision or negotiate<br />a regulatory alternative. The fact that the White<br />House supported the delay, the Senate approved<br />the delay, and that one of the provisions in the<br />bill is needed to prevent a government shutdown,<br />strongly favors that Congress will either prevent<br />or delay the restrictions. However, the bill<br />passed in the House previously without the delay<br />and many in the House majority republican party do<br />not support preventing or delaying the bill. Thus,<br />I predict that there is a 70% probability that<br />Congress will prevent or delay the restrictions.","Isabella Picciano (85%): In order for the<br />statement to be true, Practical Magic 2 must<br />exceed $26.7 million domestically during opening<br />weekend. First, considering the outside view<br />where we ignore the details of Practical magic<br />and depend on similar historical cases, we can<br />explore how legacy sequels usually perform and<br />whether movies with a similar audience earn more<br />than $26.7 million. Based on my research, legacy<br />sequels are often hit or miss. They are great<br />hits if the audience feels strong nostalgia,<br />but failures if the audience feels as though it<br />didnât compare or were âcheapedâ out. Popular<br />legacy sequels include Top Gun: Maverick and<br />Star Wars: The Force Awakens while Blade Runner<br />2049 underperformed. This alone is not enough<br />to assign probability. Thus, we must consider<br />the inside view where we consider information<br />
315specific to the movie Practical Magic. Evidence<br />that would increase the probability that this<br />movie earns more than $26.7 million include the<br />fact that Nicole Kidman and Sandra Bullock, the<br />stars of the first movie, are returning for the<br />second. Secondly, the first movie is considered<br />a âcult classicâ with a loyal fan base praising<br />the aesthetic, atmosphere, bond of sisterhood,<br />and seasonal âautumnâ tradition. These factors<br />also increase the 90âs nostalgic feel that the<br />movie brings. Finally, BoxOffice Pro predicts that<br />the movie with generate around $30 million - $40<br />million during its opening. Evidence that lowers<br />the probability of the movie earning more than<br />$26.7 million during opening is the fact that the<br />sequel is coming out 28 years after the original.<br />This generates a degree of uncertainty about<br />whether the fan base will translate to earnings<br />during the movieâs opening. Secondly, BoxOffice<br />Pro suggest that the film is âshaping up to<br />follow a modest route like Freakier Friday ($28.5<br />domestic opening) rather than a massive breakout<br />like the Devel Wears Prada 2 ($76.7 domestic<br />opening.â Additionally, many fans have expressed<br />disappointment over the absence of Evan Rachel<br />Wood. Finally, the popularity of the original film<br />was dependent on a âslow-burnâ fan base that grew<br />over decades. It wasnât an immediate hit. Weighing<br />this evidence, I predict an 85% probability<br />that the movieâs domestic opening earnings<br />will be higher than $26.7 million because the<br />predicted range (30-40 million) is higher than the<br />threshold. I didnât assign a higher probability<br />in case box office projections is inaccurate or<br />overconfident and the fact that the lower end of<br />the projected range is only about 3 million higher<br />than the threshold.","Jacob Nabors (42%): The Senate has already passed<br />a delay until Dec. 11 and the House must have<br />a 66% super majority to pass the resolution as<br />well and no amendments are allowed. This delay<br />is also supported by the White House and other<br />administration officials. Although several state<br />AGs have sent letters urging for Congress to<br />not reverse the ban. This is probably going to<br />come down to a close line and whether or not the<br />supermajority is reached is harder to predict.","Jacob Nabors (80%): The film must reach at least<br />26 million to be higher than the first movie.<br />Recent projections have the film hitting around<br />40-50 million, therefore it is certainly on track<br />to do so. This higher expectation for the amount<br />also leave some room for the film to not make<br />as much and still make more than the first film.<br />Recent sequels involving females have had a 15%<br />on either side margin, which still places the film<br />within the needed amount.","Jason Eappen (60%): Based on my initial research,<br />the initial delay that pushed the voting on<br />the THC bill was purposefully done to ensure<br />the vote occurs after the midterm. This gives<br />Congress more time to understand the potenial<br />fallback as a result of the federal restrictions<br />and the economic ramifications. Conversely,<br />because of this initial delay, the deadline for<br />the restrictions to be put into place now falls<br />sqaurely in time for when government funding is<br />set to expire. This is significant because if<br />the implemination of the restrictions is tied<br />to any government funding bill, it can cause a<br />further delay the resitrctions to be put into<br />place. However, there is still a chance that both<br />Republicans and Democrats can find a solution.<br />During the first delay, it was a bipartisan issue<br />that both sides agreed to a delay. Because of<br />the cross party appeal of the issue, there is<br />a good chance that both sides can figure out a<br />solution and not delay it. Overall, because of the<br />government shutdown, there is more likely chance<br />than not that there could be another short term<br />delay.","Jason Eappen (80%): I think so and fairly<br />confidently. The reason why is because the<br />original Practical Magic opened to $13.10 million<br />domestically. This automatically gives a low<br />foundation for the sequeal to hopefully reach.<br />I fit was 100 million or something much higher,<br />it gives the sequeal a harder floor to reach.<br />The inflation adjusted floor the sequeal has to<br />beat is around 26 million dollars. Moreover, with<br />legacy actresses including the highly publicized<br />reunion of stars Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman,<br />it has given the film a lot more buzz. The 30<br />year gap between the first and second movie<br />has really driven up demand for the movie. The<br />
315biggest age demographic that will watch the movie<br />will be millennials who will go to the theather<br />to watch the movie. Update: I think after class<br />discussion the probabiltiy goes up because the<br />nostalgic factor increases the amount of buzz<br />around the movie. Many people are wanting to see<br />the return of Sandra Bullock, so it is generating<br />a lot of hope around the movie. Plus, because it<br />is more positive news around this time compared<br />to 30 years ago, it will beat the opening weekend<br />estiamtes from 30 years ago.","Jordan Sanderson (65%): I believe Congress will<br />pass legislation to delay bans on THC products.<br />Trump is likely to leverage shutdown politics,<br />and there has already been talk about a push for<br />a funding bill that will cause delay on the ban.<br />A lot of local businesses are also heavily pushing<br />against the idea, as it will destroy a lucrative<br />industry.","Jordan Sanderson (68%): I predict that Practical<br />Magic 2 will exceed the one of opening weekend<br />of the original film. The first Practical Magic<br />earned more than $13 million during its opening<br />weekend, which would be more than $31.5 million<br />today. This creates a relatively achievable<br />benchmark. The official trailer has also reached<br />19 million Youtube views, so there is a large<br />audience ancipation for the movie.","Joshua Mui (80%): The recent(ish) passing of new<br />delays is encouraging, but I'm going to fight<br />on technicality that the posed question does not<br />have a time limit. As the White House continues<br />to be more hemp-friendly, it can be assumed that<br />Republicans will fall in line there and continue<br />to stall any bans.","Joshua Mui (25%): I'm still extremely low on this<br />movie, although I'll bump up my prediction out of<br />peer pressure sake and because I realize that my<br />perception has something to do with me not being<br />the target audience. For a movie that's coming out<br />this month, I didn't even know it existed. I have<br />very little confidence in this movie, and I don't<br />think that baiting on the nostalgia of middle-aged<br />women is an effective strategy. Even then, for<br />it to make 26.7 million in it's opening weekend<br />would require it to be more popular than Paw<br />Patrol, coyote v acme, and end of oak street, all<br />of which i consider to have a lot broader appeal<br />to the point that I just don't see it happening<br />for a legacy sequel with little marketing behind<br />it, regardless of cast or studio. Considering the<br />original wasn't really that popular either (yes,<br />it holds somewhat ok streaming numbers but I can't<br />see that correlating to butts in seats) and didn't<br />make it's budget back, I wouldn't be optimistic.","Julia Krehbiel (20%): I do not think that it<br />will be very likely that Congress will pass this<br />legislation before November 19th because they will<br />likely vote this week to delay the THC ban until<br />December, which would ensure that the legislation<br />is not voted on in November. I think that this<br />delay will happen due to the nature of typical<br />deliberation in the Senate as well as the white<br />house's support for the marijuana industry.","Julia Krehbiel (25%): I do not think that it<br />is very likely that the box office of Practical<br />Magic 2 will exceed that of the original Practical<br />Magic because average ticket sales have dropped<br />by almost half since the 1990s. Even though<br />the tomatometer predictions are predicting more<br />favorable reviews than the original one I do not<br />think that it would be likely that the movie will<br />attract enough movie theatre viewers to make up<br />for the lack of overall interest in attending the<br />movies these days.","Kiefer Adams (75%): I put the probability of<br />Congress passing legislation to prevent or delay<br />restrictions on hemp-derived THC products at<br />75%. I see it as quite likely that this happens,<br />primarily because the Senate has already passed<br />a bill containing a one-month delay provision for<br />this, and it passed with a 90-6 vote, indicating<br />broad support for the delay.","Kiefer Adams (95%): I am revising my forecast<br />to 95% for Practical Magic 2 exceeding Practical<br />Magic in opening weekend box office sales. My<br />reasoning behind this is the recent success of<br />other sequels that have outdone their originals,<br />as well as the fact that the original Practical<br />Magic has been rated so highly on streaming<br />services recently.","Krish Chinta (85%): An overwhelming Senate<br />majority recently passed a funding bill that<br />includes a provision (whose proposed removal was<br />rejected 61-32) to delay the ban, and the White<br />House has supported the idea of altering the terms<br />of or delaying the ban. White House Chief of Staff<br />Susie Wilesâs daughter Caroline is also married to<br />Bret Worley, who is the CEO of MC Nutraceuticals,<br />thus presenting compelling incentives for some<br />members of the executive branch to support<br />delaying the ban. While a delay of the ban is<br />highly likely, there is still an outside chance of<br />Congressional friction dragging the process out.","Krish Chinta (94%): In light of the evidence and<br />reasoning discused in class regarding the original<br />Practical Magic trending, a big marketing push<br />towards the target audience, and the accuracy<br />of box office forecasters, I have increased my<br />forecast by a few percentage points to account for<br />this new evidence.","Leah Mojica (65%): I believe that there is a 65%<br />chance of Congress passing legislation to prevent<br />or delay federal restrictions on THC products.<br />I think this because there is often a lot of<br />discourse surrounding the use of THC products, so<br />it remains a highly relevant issue, and the issues<br />surrounding it are constantly evolving. Thus, I<br />think that there is a good chance of this event<br />happening, even if it is only a temporary delay in<br />new federal restrictions.","Leah Mojica (95%): I still think Practical Magic<br />2 is likely to outperform the first one, even if<br />it has a slow opening weekend. There is a big push<br />for nostalgia right now, and 2026 has been a great<br />year for movies. Especially considering the 1st<br />movie's initially low popularity, the second movie<br />already has the fanbase and credibility to pull in<br />viewers during its opening week.","Matthew Fern (75%): To me, it seems likely<br />that Congress will pass this legislation. For<br />one, Trump still has a large amount of sway in<br />Congress, and while many House Republicans often<br />grandstand and huff and puff, they generally fall<br />in line with his wishes. I do hesitate slightly<br />because the House can be generally more unwieldy<br />than the Senate. The Senate, on the other hand,<br />already voted heavily to extend the ban going<br />into effect. There is also a lot of money pushing<br />for the extension, which also could lead to a<br />contentious vote.","Matthew Fern (85%): Overall, I would say that<br />my prediction has been slightly more cemented<br />upon hearing everyone's discussions. I am still<br />slightly hesitant to say more than 85% just<br />because I had not really heard anything about<br />the movie prior to this prediction. I do agree,<br />however, that nostalgia and the cult-classic<br />status of the film will likely aid in boosting<br />ticket sales for the movie.","Megan Tate (70%): I believe there is a 70% chance<br />that Congress will pass legislation to prevent<br />or delay new federal restrictions on hemp-derived<br />THC products from taking effect. The Senate has<br />already voted to delay the intoxicating hemp<br />THC product ban and keep Delta-8 THC on shelves<br />a little longer. Because the Senate has already<br />approved this delay and now the House is expected<br />to consider the Senate-passed legislation this<br />week, I think it is more likely than not that<br />Congress will ultimately delay a hard prohibition<br />rather than allowing the restrictions to pass.<br />It makes more sense from an economic standpoint<br />to hold back on federal restrictions because the<br />legal hemp and THC industry supports so many jobs,<br />which is a significant consideration for Congress.","Megan Tate (75%): I estimate that there is a 75%<br />probability that the opening weekend domestic box<br />office for Practice Magic 2 will exceed that of<br />Practical Magic. The 1998 Practical Magic grossed<br />approximately $26.9 million during its opening<br />weekend. For Practical Magic 2, scheduled to be<br />released on September 11, Boxoffice Pro projects<br />$30-$40 million, with some presales pointing<br />past $40-$50 million. We still have to see if<br />current tracking will translate into actual<br />opening-weekend attendance, which is why I am<br />keeping my forecast at 75% and leaving room for<br />uncertainty.","Mera Moucharrafie (50%): I put my answer as<br />50% because I think it is as equally likely to<br />happen than not. According to Politico, Since<br />President Trump already put a funding patch on<br />this delay earlier in July, I think that there is<br />a possibility that Congress will pass legislation<br />
315in support of the ban. The leaders in the hemp<br />industry are also believing that Congress will<br />continue to delay the hemp ban restrictions in<br />order to avoid risk of a government shutdown.<br />However, the Senate, on the other hand, believes<br />that the Trump Administration might not want<br />to extend the ban due to White House officials'<br />responses.","Mera Moucharrafie (80%): According to Box Office<br />Pro, the opening weekend of Practical Magic<br />(1998) received $13.1 million, which would make it<br />roughly between $28 - $32 million after adjusted<br />for inflation. Because 2026 has been such a good<br />year for movie (Spider-Man: Brand New Day, The<br />Odyssey, Michael, etc.), I feel as though people<br />have high expectations for Practical Magic 2,<br />thus making them more inclined to watch it. Also<br />according to Box Office Pro, the projected opening<br />weekend range is between $35 -$45 million, thus<br />exceeding Practical Magic (1998).","Michelle Villanueva (70%): I have a prediction<br />of 70% that yes, Congress will pass legislation<br />to prevent or delay the new federal restrictions<br />on hemp-derived THC products from taking effect.<br />Senate has already shown significant support<br />for a delay. The broader funding bill was passed<br />that delayed the new hemp restrictions, and<br />senators also voted 61-32 against removing the<br />hemp delay, which shows that support is not only<br />tied to the larger spending package. I also think<br />the fact that the delay is temporary makes it<br />easier for lawmakers to support because Congress<br />would not have to agree on a permanent solution<br />right away. However, the House still has to<br />approve the legislation, and the planned voting<br />process requires a two-thirds majority, making<br />it less certain that it'll be passed. Some House<br />Republicans also oppose the delay, and AP News<br />reported that that disagreement is one reason<br />House leaders are trying to move the funding bill<br />through this faster voting process. Also, this<br />past August, many state and territorial attorneys<br />general sent a letter to congressional leaders<br />urging them to reject efforts to delay or weaken<br />the new hemp restrictions. Therefore, I think<br />a delay is more likely to occur, but there is<br />still some chance that the House prevents it from<br />passing.","Michelle Villanueva (80%): I predict a forecast<br />of 80% that yes, Practical Magic 2 will have a<br />bigger domestic opening weekend than the original<br />Practical Magic after adjusting for inflation. The<br />first movie opened to about $13.1 million in 1998,<br />which if we are adjusting for inflation, that<br />would be around $26.84 million in 2026. However,<br />the current projections for the sequel are<br />generally around $30-40 million according to Box<br />Office Pro, which is already more. I also think<br />the return of Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman<br />gives Practical Magic 2 a stronger advantage to<br />potentially have bigger domestic opening weekend<br />than the first movie.","Parker Buckroyd (65%): Trump and industry leaders<br />successfully lobbied the Senate to add language<br />to a government funding patch earlier this month<br />to delay the hemp ban until mid-December. The<br />house will vote on the bill supposedly this<br />week, and considering that this issue relates to<br />a government shutdown, I believe there is a 65%<br />chance bill with the delay language will pass to<br />avoid government shutdown.","Parker Buckroyd (80%): With its A lister stacked<br />cast and long anticipated return after 28 years,<br />I believe there is a 80% chance that opening<br />weekend domestic box office for Practical Magic<br />2 will exceed that of Practical Magic. Box Office<br />Pro, a movie industry publican that uses audience<br />trends, comparable movies, and social media<br />interpretation, estimated opening weekend to<br />bring in about $30-40 million. With 7 days until<br />its pre-screening and 8 days until its release, I<br />believe the margin could ebb slightly with early<br />reviews, solidifying my 80% chance of exceeding<br />PM1.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (60%): In November 2025,<br />Congress enacted a law that imposes a legal limit<br />of THC/Hemp-infused products to 0.4 milligrams,<br />essentially banning many drugs from being sold<br />in lots of places in the United States. On August<br />8, 2026, the Senate overwhelmingly voted 90-6<br />to keep the government open, therefore, there is<br />a delay date that stops the implementation from<br />taking place until December 11, 2026. There is a<br />high chance that this will happen again due to the<br />overwhelming public backlash that many blue states<br />and younger citizens are protesting against.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (80%): With the fact<br />that two major stars are returning Nicole Kidman<br />for example, and the fact that in inflation<br />adjusted dollars it is predicted that it will make<br />more money at the office then one can be sure that<br />it is highly likely that it will be surpassed","Sarah Gregory (51%): I believe it is probable<br />that Congress will pass legislation to prevent<br />or delay new federal restrictions on hemp-derived<br />THC products from taking effect. The House is<br />taking up the bill this week under suspension of<br />the rules, meaning no amendments can be added and<br />a two-thirds majority is required for passage.<br />This is a higher threshold and therefore more<br />challenging, but the alternative is a government<br />shutdown, and I believe bipartisan support for the<br />bill is likely. Trump has proposed a regulatory<br />approach, which I think many members of Congress<br />would prefer over allowing the new restrictions to<br />take effect without a clear regulatory framework.","Sarah Gregory (87%): Yes, the opening weekend<br />domestic box office for Practical Magic<br />2 will exceed that of Practical Magic in<br />inflation-adjusted dollars. I say this because<br />there has been substantial hype surrounding the<br />sequelâs release. Current tracking has the film<br />opening in the $40â50 million range, with some<br />projections reaching as high as $46 million,<br />and reports indicate that presales have been<br />strong.The sequel also has a major advantage<br />in star power. Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman<br />are both returning in their original roles, and<br />their profiles have grown considerably since<br />the 1998 film. Bullock and Kidman have since<br />won an Academy Award for Best Actress. The<br />original Practical Magic opened to $13.1 million<br />domestically in 1998. In inflation-adjusted terms,<br />that is approximately $46 million today. Given<br />the sequelâs current tracking, strong presales,<br />returning stars, and the original filmâs enduring<br />cult following, I believe Practical Magic 2<br />is likely to surpass that inflation-adjusted<br />opening-weekend figure.","Slate Jones (85%): According to Politico, Trump<br />and industry leaders lobbied senators to delay<br />the hemp restrictions until December. The vote<br />to delay the restrictions passed 61 - 32 in the<br />senate, and is currently waiting for a vote in the<br />house. Republican senate leadership introduced the<br />
315provision with Trump's backing, so I would assume<br />the house will follow suit. It is also in an<br />effort to ensure the government stays open during<br />midterms, so the bill is pretty important to pass<br />for republicans.","Slate Jones (95%): unless something were to go<br />horribly wrong for this sequel, it should easily<br />outperform the original on opening weekend. At<br />first, the movie was not very high profile on<br />release, but now, it is much better poised to<br />perform well. A useful analog for how this movie<br />should perform is with the devil wears prada and<br />its recent sequel, which massively outperformed<br />the original movie after more than a decade gap<br />between movies.","Will Steiner (90%): Seeing as this legislation<br />has already passed through Congress, I struggle<br />to think of a scenario where this wouldn't make<br />it through the House. Considering that there<br />is already legislation that includes a delay<br />being voted on this week, I am almost certain<br />that it will pass. The bill will be passed<br />under suspension of the rules, meaning it cannot<br />be amended to remove the delay but requires a<br />two-thirds supermajority. Seeing that the delay<br />has bipartisan support as well as the support of<br />Donald Trump, I feel relatively confident that the<br />bill will pass and the delay will take effect.","Will Steiner (90%): After our discussion, I feel<br />about as confident as I had previously. Even if<br />it isn't the strongest audience for moviegoing,<br />the bar is so low that the film would be a massive<br />flop if it fails to meet that expectation. Barring<br />some kind of financial disaster, the movie should<br />easily make more than the original.","Ziyada Rakhimova (25%): I have little faith<br />Congress will pass legislation to prevent or<br />delay new federal restrictions on hemp-derived THC<br />products from taking effect due to the past rates<br />of moving for cannabis or hemp being slow to take<br />effect or even be put into policy. Ultimately,<br />this is looking like an up-hill battle that may<br />not fully even come to fruition due to bipartisan<br />bills like the HEMP Act and the Lawful Hemp<br />Protection Act placing Congress in a gridlock.","Ziyada Rakhimova (85%): After adjusting for<br />inflation, the opening weekend total for the<br />initial release would be worth only about $26<br />million to surpass. The sequel will have the<br />advantage of an immense fan base cultivated over<br />many years through streaming and home media. Given<br />that tracking has already estimated far above $30<br />million, the film will certainly succeed more than<br />it won't."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"triangle-up","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Student,1)","legendgroup":"(Student,1)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.65000000000000002,0.75,0.69999999999999996,0.80000000000000004,0.62,0.69999999999999996,0.48999999999999999,0.80000000000000004,0.84999999999999998,0.40000000000000002,0.65000000000000002,0.80000000000000004,0.80000000000000004,0.80000000000000004,0.59999999999999998,0.69999999999999996,0.45000000000000001,0.55000000000000004,0.78000000000000003,0.69999999999999996,0.75,0.94999999999999996,0.80000000000000004,0.84999999999999998,0.84999999999999998,0.69999999999999996,0.84999999999999998,0.80000000000000004,0.69999999999999996,0.75,0.85999999999999999,0.69999999999999996,0.69999999999999996,0.80000000000000004,0.90000000000000002,0.80000000000000004],"y":[2.0616802722401917,2.1061292416229844,1.8928187103383243,1.8958375409431756,1.9860859540104867,2.0711804938502612,2.0302631818130612,2.1025124611333013,1.8885298008471727,1.9620019685477019,2.1193704184331001,1.9852543437667192,1.9859585707075893,2.0727364897355436,1.9832101045921444,1.9336174814216793,2.0494095528498293,1.8892657024413346,1.9398008185997606,1.9921700473316013,2.1095232343673707,1.9471855483204126,2.0543175914511083,2.08937966004014,1.8968190347030758,2.0860502971336246,2.0261373350396754,2.0010889381356538,1.8891596114076674,2.097983274050057,1.9649551220238208,1.885417254474014,2.1015448194742201,1.9744744718074798,2.0578878388553856,1.9694481332600118],"text":["Anya Biswas (65%): Pete Hegseth is unlikely to<br />leave this position without intense pressure or<br />Trump forcing him out. He is a supporter and backs<br />Trump. However with the War in Iran and several<br />other military issues he does not have the best<br />
315image. Trump is very worried about the mid term<br />elections and his image. Trump's last Secretary<br />of Defense left early November. After the mid<br />terms, there might be a lot of intense political<br />pressures.","Bain Fulcher (75%): Despite Hegseth facing<br />backlash from Democrats and some Republicans,<br />prediction markets say there is a relatively<br />low probability that Hegseth will leave in the<br />immediate future. Hegseth is facing an impeachment<br />resolution, but it would need to advance through<br />the House before the Senate could hold a trial.<br />Also, Hegseth could be used as a scapegoat for the<br />war with Iran, which would provide an incentive to<br />keep him in office until the war is over.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (70%): I do believe that<br />Pete Hegseth will be serving as Secretary of<br />Defense by the time November 19th comes. According<br />to Reuters, Hegseth currently serves a critical<br />role in deciding troop placement and missions<br />around Europe. The decision is due by November<br />6th, which does give some leeway for potential<br />resignation or expulsion from the position, but<br />it makes it less likely. Trump also approves<br />of Hegsethâs fulfillment of the job duties at<br />this time, saying Hegseth is doing âa \"fantastic<br />job.â He also mentioned that discussing Hegsethâs<br />resignation for a future presidential run is too<br />early, leading me to believe that Hegseth will<br />most likely still be in the position by November<br />19. However, I do feel less certain than my<br />initial guess, so I lowered my estimate.","Brian Sadenwasser (80%): I think this question<br />comes down to whether there will be a major<br />political or military (primarily in Iran) crisis<br />that will make Trump fire Hegseth. Hegseth has<br />had previous issues that have caused controversy.<br />I think the odds that a worse issue comes out<br />by Nov. 19 that forces Trump to fire him are 5%.<br />I think the chance of a military controversy in<br />Iran that is bad enough for Trump to fire him is<br />15%. Added together the chance Hegseth is fired<br />is roughly 20%, meaning I am 80% confident he will<br />remain as Secretary of Defense.","Brianna Speizer (62%): Although this<br />administration has had a relatively high turnover<br />rate (20% this term), I believe there is a high<br />chance that Hegseth will still be in his position<br />by November 19th. This is due to the continuing<br />actions of the military in places such as Iran.<br />There are several vacancies in the Pentagon,<br />especially in the army, and I do not believe that<br />he will be forced to resign at this time. Although<br />many members of the House and Senate have released<br />statements in the past few days after Driscollâs<br />resignation with doubts to Hegseth, there are also<br />several such as Representative McCormick who do<br />not seem to be worried, which leads me to believe<br />that there will not be enough votes to have<br />Congress impeach him. President Trump has posted<br />on truth social regarding a new Secretary of the<br />Navy, but nothing regarding doubts of Hegseth<br />after Driscoll and in the last few days praised<br />Hegsethâs work when asked about if he would<br />endorse him in 2028; this leads me to believe that<br />Trump will not pressure or force him to resign<br />before November 19.","Caitlyn McMullen (70%): This one is tricky, and<br />
315after hearing the class discussion, I think it<br />could go either way. However, I am leaning more<br />towards yes. Although Trump's track record of<br />firing his members indicates that it is possible,<br />I believe that if Trump wanted him gone, he would<br />have already. Hegseth's role in the Iran war and<br />Trump's support makes me think that Hegseth will<br />continue to serve as Secretary of Defense after<br />midterms. Although he causes a bit of turmoil<br />within the republican party, I think keeping in<br />office will be more \"party unifying\" and Trump<br />will likely keep him in the position through<br />November 19th. With all that being said, the<br />firing of Pam Bondi (which we discussed heavily<br />in class), shows that Trump could be seemingly<br />supportive but still fire the person-- which does<br />not rule out the possibility that Hegseth might<br />get the boot.","Carter Ray (49%): Hegseth is under considerable<br />pressure both from Democrats and internally<br />from members of the Trump administration and<br />GOP senators to be ousted due to his conduct<br />surrounding alcoholism, firing military officers<br />unfairly, and failing to win the Iran war. With<br />midterms around the corner, Trump may want to show<br />unity from his administration, but in the weeks<br />after there is a strong possibility that he is<br />fired or asked to resign as is the case from the<br />2018 Trump midterms, in which the Attorney General<br />left the day after election day.","Celina Simone (80%): There is still a high<br />probability Pete Hegseth will maintain his<br />position in the presidentâs cabinet after November<br />19th. While strong points were made about the<br />turnover in the presidentâs past cabinets, itâs<br />still important to remember that Hegsethâs MAGA<br />base is still backing him, the war in Iran shows<br />no sign of haulting, and Hegseth does not show any<br />signs of resigning. If there is a blue wave come<br />midterms though there is still a chance of his<br />removal, but it is difficult to see the removal<br />
315happening right after.","Christopher Heyl (85%): Based on discussions<br />in class today I have decided to stick with my<br />initial forecast of 85%. There has been little<br />evidence to suggest that an internal revolt is<br />currently taking place against Hegseth, with<br />the opposite being true and many high profile<br />pentagon people simply resigning rather than<br />cause a revolt. Trump may reconsider his choice<br />of Defense Secretary following the midterms, but<br />I also agree with the sentiment held in class that<br />Hegseth may prove to be an important scapegoat to<br />maintain after the Iran war concludes, which does<br />not appear to be any time soon. Therefore, I think<br />it is highly likely come November 19, even with a<br />midterm defeat, Trump will keep him as his Defense<br />Secretary.","Dean McDonald (40%): Pete Hegseth, while currently<br />maintaining his position as Secretary of Defense,<br />has seen recorcd low polling among anybody<br />not directly Republican-affiliated, with even<br />members of that party doubting his abilities.<br />The failure to achieve anything near a victory<br />in Iran does not bode well for Hegseth; as seen<br />with Kristi Noem and ICE, and Pam Bondi with the<br />Epstein Files, Trump's support is not ironclad<br />especially during intense criticism, and he<br />will gladly let his underlings take the fall to<br />position himself as free of blame. While Hegseth<br />has consolidated the military through dozens of<br />firings, reassignments, and denial/acceptance of<br />promotions, this will not matter if Trump needs a<br />fallguy for Iran.","Denton Alexander (65%): There is pressure within<br />the republican party urging Donald Trump to remove<br />Hegseth, but Trump has always done whatever he<br />wanted, and he does not have anything negative to<br />say about the Secretary of Defense at this point.<br />However, maybe the bit of bipartisan approval<br />of removing Hegseth will get Trump's advisors to<br />attempt to make a big move and bring the parties<br />together a little bit.","Dylan Goff (80%): Overall, despite the deep<br />discussion in class, I have found ver little<br />reason to change my number substantially. While<br />the mentioning of cabinate secretaries are<br />important, what was failed to be ackowledged by<br />myself as well is those those that were fired<br />were only done so out of disloyalty. I also still<br />think that the war in iran isnt being very blamed<br />on hegseth by the president in part due to his<br />prediclition to fox news","Edy Thompson (80%): I think there is a good<br />chance Pete Hegseth will still be serving as<br />Secretary of Defense on November 19. The Economist<br />reported on September 1 that he is âconquering<br />the Pentagonâ and has consolidated control. There<br />is some friction with Army Secretary Dan Driscoll<br />resigning and Senate Democrats criticizing<br />Hegsethâs leadership, but nothing pointing towards<br />his removal. Iâd say there is a 80% chance he<br />still holds the position.","Ella Vars (80%): I believe my intial prediction<br />was correct. Trump's relation with Hegseth<br />and the retention rate of 80% make me believe<br />Hegseth will keep his role. Even though there is<br />dissatisfaction, the Trump administration does<br />not seem like they will withdraw their support of<br />Hegseth. If anything he will be fired after the<br />midterms.","Hailey Chae (60%): He is still in the position<br />and continues to have support from President<br />Trump, which makes me think he is more likely to<br />stay than leave. However, there has been a lot<br />of turnover and conflict within the Pentagon,<br />including the recent resignation of Army Secretary<br />Dan Driscoll. Some of my classmates also pointed<br />out that if Congress were to successfully impeach<br />and remove Hegseth, it would be a major political<br />statement that his leadership had become a serious<br />problem. Because of the uncertainty surrounding<br />him, I lowered my original forecast from 75% to<br />
31560%.","Hannah Hartley (70%): After the class discussion,<br />I moderately think Hegseth may still be serving<br />still by November 19. The scapegoat idea as well<br />as potentially needing to withdraw from Iran<br />before his exit are all factors that I had not<br />considered before our discussion. However, I still<br />believe that due to the unpredictable nature of<br />the political state right now, I could not put a<br />high probability.","Haven Priem (45%): I still do think that he<br />will not resign because unless there's some<br />extraordinary event or circumstance. He is seems<br />like a kind of stubborn person who would not<br />really resign but get kicked out possibly. However<br />with this administration it is kinda hard to tell<br />what will happen.","Isabella Picciano (55%): In order for the<br />statement to be true, Pete Hegseth must shold<br />his current Cabinet position as Secretary of<br />Defense/War until November 19th. Beginning<br />with the outside view where we rely on similar<br />historical circumstances, we can ask how<br />long secretaries of defense in the past have<br />usually served and the frequency of removal or<br />resignation. According to History.com, Cabinet<br />secretary of wars usually serve for 2.8- 3 years.<br />The forecast in this situation, only requires<br />the Hegseth to remain in his current position<br />for another 2.5 months. This makes our base<br />rate decently high. To narrow the probability<br />prediction, we can consider the inside view and<br />explore more about Pete Hegsethâs status in the<br />Cabinet and external factors that would influence<br />the likelihood of him remaining in office<br />until November 19th. We know that Hegsreth is<br />currently the Secretary of Defense/War. Secondly,<br />FirstPost released a video of President Donald<br />Trump dismissing rumors about Hegseth leaving<br />his position or firing him stating he is âdoing<br />a great job.â Although this seems to strengthen<br />the probability that Hegseth will stay and avoid<br />removal, Trump, in the past, has spoken highly of<br />Cabinet members like Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi and<br />then unexpectedly terminated them. The strength<br />of this evidence is not enough to secure Hegsethâs<br />position. The final factor that influences the<br />probability of this question is the fact that the<br />U.S. is at war with iran. Some may say that these<br />increases the probability of him stay to not risk<br />instability in the cabinet while others heavily<br />suggest that Hegseth had been significantly<br />criticized for our involvement and performance<br />which could be reason for his removal. I predict<br />a 55% probability that Hegseth will remain in<br />office due to the unpredictability of the war<br />circumstances, the Presidentâs unpredictable<br />termination patterns, and the shorter time frame<br />compared to the normal length of time Secretary of<br />Defenseâs serve.","Jacob Nabors (78%): This one is harder to predict<br />because of who is making the decision to keep or<br />fire Hegseth. Trump is know to make decisions on<br />the fly and even be quick to reverse his position<br />on a topic. So far he seems in support of Hegseth<br />and his actions with Iran. However, Trump may<br />use Hegseth as a fall guy if things start getting<br />worse or right before the midterms to appease<br />voters. Overall, things still look like Hegseth<br />will remain in office.","Jason Eappen (70%): I think there are a lot of<br />factors surronding this prediction. Firstly,<br />the Iran war. Currently the US and Iran are in<br />a conflict that has straied the global economy,<br />yet militarily (pure perspective) the United<br />States has decimated Iran and its military. Their<br />strikes have been limited in capcaity and the<br />US largely has fended off their attacks on their<br />Middle Eastern bases. If Iran would have suddenly<br />increased their military capacity and launched<br />a surpirse attack on the US, lawmakers including<br />the presdeint would increase the likelihood that<br />Pete Hegesth would out of the job. The president<br />does not losing and the war begins to hurt him<br />
315more he will take it out on his staff. The second<br />factor in this decision would be in fighting. With<br />the recent rumblings within the admisntration,<br />there has been a divide between JD-Vance aligned<br />admisntration officals (i.e former army secretary<br />driscoll) and more Trump aligned officals (Sec.<br />Hegseth and Sec. Rubio) it truely creates a<br />massive enviroment for infighting. However,<br />currently, it seems like thr Trump wing has more<br />officals winning the president's ear. So the<br />recent demotions, removal of promotions, etc. has<br />been taken more positivily like Trump. Even as<br />high ranking officals are removed from their post,<br />Trump has given Hegseth a large leway in how he<br />runs the Department of War. Even with high profile<br />departures and resignations, Trump has still given<br />Hegseth the ok with the moves. But with increased<br />lawmaker and public backlash, Sec. Hegseth is on<br />a tight rope that is wobbling beneath him. Update:<br />I think there is a good chance that Sec of War<br />will be in office. With his high pro-Trump stance,<br />there is a good chance he will be in office after<br />the midterms. There are only a limited amount of<br />situations where he would be fired. That would<br />include a 180 turn of the Iran war as well as<br />increasd PR that cuases Republican circles to<br />increase pressure of Trump to fire him. Both of<br />which is low as of today.","Jordan Sanderson (75%): Generally secretaries<br />remain in office unless they resign or lose<br />support from the president. Recently, President<br />Trump has publicly praised Hegseth's performance,<br />and with position being appointed the continued<br />support is especially important. Prediction also<br />favor his survival, wth there being 19% chance<br />estimate that Hegseth will leave before November<br />1st. Hegseth has had clashes with otehr political<br />figures (such as Senator Thom Tillis) but I<br />believe Hegseth is considerably more likely to<br />remain than leave.","Joshua Mui (95%): I remain at the same level that<br />that we've gotten past the point that if Hegseth<br />was going to be removed, it would've happened<br />already. It is obvious that President Trump at<br />minimum tolerates the guy enough to keep him<br />around, and with the cutoff being before the new<br />cycle of Congress, it's not like a Republican<br />controlled legislature has any incentive to pick<br />a fight against the president. Even as controversy<br />has brewed about conflict in the Middle East, it<br />seems as if Hegseth would rather let others take<br />the fall instead of something like resigning or<br />admitting any kind of fault. I do not subscribe<br />to the outlook that this administration would be<br />willing to let such a loyalist to the President<br />go, as was in the case for many departures in<br />the first Trump administration that involved<br />mostly establishment republicans departing due to<br />political differences. As long as Trump personally<br />thinks he is justified in Iran, there would be<br />no reason for Hegseth to be fired or even feel<br />inclined to resign, even if his base crumbles the<br />ultimate power that be will still have his favor.","Julia Krehbiel (80%): I am still confident in<br />this answer and explanation, so I am not changing<br />it- I do not think that it is very likely that he<br />will be removed from office before November 19th<br />because I do not think that there is enough time<br />between now and then for the process to really<br />speed up and prospective new candiates emerge. I<br />think that as the months pass the chances increase<br />but I think that if it were to happen by November<br />there would be a much bigger movement towards this<br />change rather than just the \"pressure\" we hear he<br />is facing in the news.","Kiefer Adams (85%): I am forecasting an 85%<br />probability that Hegseth will still be in office<br />on November 19th. I say this because of his close<br />alignment with President Trump and the upcoming<br />midterm elections. Unless there is a large mishap<br />in Iran that would implicate Hegseth and allow<br />Trump to use him as a scapegoat for the war, I<br />don't see Trump causing such a disturbance before<br />or shortly after the midterms.","Krish Chinta (85%): Upon hearing the class<br />discussion, specifically about the midterm<br />timing and Trump's historical firings, I am<br />updating my forecast to increase the chance of<br />Hegseth remaining. Unless the US pulls out of<br />the Iran war, it seems highly unlikely for the<br />Secretary's job to be in any real risk due to<br />the hassle of replacing him during a war. Despite<br />this, I am still not entirely confident he will<br />remain, given the still significant chance of a<br />bipartisan effort to oust him as a scapegoat for<br />the mishandling of the war if the midterms are<br />disasterous for the GOP.","Leah Mojica (70%): I think there is a 70% chance<br />that Hegseth will still be serving by November<br />19th. Right now, especially with the events<br />happening in Iran, I think it would be better<br />for the Trump administration to keep him on<br />instead of trying to replace him with someone else<br />(especially with the midterm elections coming up<br />
315soon). Trump has also shown his public support for<br />Hegseth, and it is very likely that he will keep<br />Hegseth on at least through November.","Matthew Fern (85%): My prediction is still sitting<br />at 85%. While I think it is highly unlikely that<br />Hegseth will be fired, I also see that there<br />could be a certain fumble which could result in<br />his firing. Trump, generally, loves loyalists<br />among his cabinet members, and Hegseth has always<br />been very loyal to him. While there has been<br />more and more questions with his work regarding<br />the military actions in Iran, I do not foresee<br />him being removed from office, nor do I see him<br />willingly resigning.","Megan Tate (80%): I think there is a 80% chance<br />that Peter Hegseth will still be serving as<br />Secretary of Defense on November 19. President<br />Trump recently expressed full confidence in<br />Hegsethâs leadership, stating that he thinks he is<br />doing a âfantastic jobâ, and there has even been<br />talk of Hegsethâs potential run for president in<br />2028. Hegseth is also involved in major Pentagon<br />decisions, which shows that the administration<br />deeply trusts him and expects him to remain in<br />the job. Since there is no current indication<br />that Trump will replace Hegseth, I think it is<br />definitely more likely than not that he will still<br />be in his position.","Mera Moucharrafie (70%): Because removing a<br />Cabinet secretary requires President Trump<br />actually replacing him, this is unlikely to happen<br />
315due to his support in backing Hegseth. On the<br />September 1st article of Time Magazine, Trump<br />speaks on behalf of Hegseth potentially running<br />for president in 2028, in which he speaks in<br />his favor and that he is a \"very good guy.\" This<br />shows that Trump isn't in any position nor has<br />any intentions of replacing him. However, there<br />is still some doubt. According to the September<br />3rd article of the Wall Street Journal, Republican<br />Senator Tom Thillis has been publicly calling<br />for Trump to Get Hegseth fired. Similarly, the<br />Pentagon is also facing chaos with Hegseth's<br />leadership, according to the Wall Street Journal<br />article published on September 3rd, as well.","Michelle Villanueva (75%): I predict a forecast<br />of 75% that yes, Pete Hegseth will still be<br />serving as Secretary of Defense by Nov. 19. For<br />one, President Trump is still publicly supporting<br />him. On Aug. 31, Trump praised Hegsethâs<br />performance, and Hegseth is still being given<br />major responsibilities at the Pentagon, according<br />to Reuters News, this includes an ongoing NATO<br />troop review that is expected to present options<br />to him in Nov. 6. However, there has been growing<br />criticism of Hegsethâs leadership where Army<br />Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned after tensions<br />with Hegseth, and Republican Senator Tillis,<br />who originally voted to confirm Hegseth, is now<br />publicly urging Trump to choose a new defense<br />secretary. According to CBS News as well, at least<br />20 generals and civilian defense leaders have also<br />been fired or left their positions since Hegseth<br />took office. Still, since Trump continues to back<br />Hegseth, I think he is more likely to remain in<br />office as Secretary of Defense","Parker Buckroyd (86%): Pete Hegseth has faced<br />intense and constant pushback from Democrats for<br />a decent span of time, where Rep. Yassamin Ansari,<br />Democrat of Arizona, introduced a resolution<br />titled \"Impeaching Peter B. Hegseth, Secretary<br />of Defense of the United States, for high crimes<br />and misdemeanors\", co-sponsored by 13 other House<br />Democrats. Recently uproar from Rep. Thom Tillis<br />sparked a newer wave of Republican pushback.<br />Ultimately, I believe Hegseth's record of \"America<br />First\" removals of higher ups, like Dan Driscoll,<br />in the Pentagon will give him this negative<br />feedback, but ultimately give him a tighter grip<br />on the Pentagon therefore a tighter grip on his<br />job as a whole, making my forecast 86% chance of<br />staying in office.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (70%): Since Trump and<br />his administration have really only fired women<br />from his cabinet and the fact that there haven't<br />been major developments with the Iran War as of<br />recently, I am highly confident that it is likely<br />he won't be removed from office as of November<br />19th","Sarah Gregory (70%): I believe Pete Hegseth still<br />be serving as Secretary of Defense on November 19.<br />With midterms approaching, it is crucial for the<br />current administration to have the appearance of<br />stability. Although, there has been controversy,<br />especially with the resignation of Army Secretary,<br />Dan Driscoll, I think Trump will continue to<br />back Hegseth. Also, the Republican legislature<br />is unlikely to pick a fight with Trump. Although,<br />individual members have expressed disatisfaction<br />with Hegseth, I don't think as a body they will<br />move to change anything.","Slate Jones (80%): I misread the question for my<br />initial forecast, and I am swapping my likelihood<br />to reflect my actual opinion. It is unlikely he<br />will be ousted, but there are valid reasons why it<br />would happen. The war in Iran is very unpopular,<br />and Hegseth would make a great fall guy, but<br />the Trump administration at this time seems very<br />content with the war in Iran. Dan Driscoll just<br />resigned due to differences with Hegseth, and<br />he seems to be close with JD Vance who may be<br />whispering in Trump's ear about what to do with<br />Hegseth. All in all though, I think the Trump<br />administration is much more likely to try to<br />present itself as strong and faultless than to<br />
315admit incompetence by firing Hegseth.","Will Steiner (90%): I remain unconvinced by<br />the arguments claiming that he will be removed<br />post-midterm. Despite the failure of the Iran War,<br />I find it highly unlikely that Trump will saddle<br />Hegseth with all the blame and sack him within<br />the roughly two-week period that he has after the<br />midterms. While it is not impossible, the window<br />of time is simply too thin for me to believe<br />anything greater.","Ziyada Rakhimova (80%): From what I know, I<br />see no reason for Hegsethâs dismissal since his<br />personal loyalty to the President is of higher<br />importance compared to the political challenges<br />that originated from Capitol Hill. Just by<br />observing the way he handles critical reviews at<br />the Pentagon, it's apparent that the White House<br />should consider a dismissal just before midterm<br />elections politically more damaging than the<br />political challenges themself. As long as there<br />will be no changes in the Presidentâs subjective<br />loyalty to this matter, the chances of dismissal<br />seem low."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Student,2)","legendgroup":"(Student,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.5,0.5],"y":[0.40000000000000002,3.6000000000000001],"text":"","type":"scatter","mode":"lines","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,0.3)","dash":"dash"},"hoveron":"points","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":23.305936073059364,"r":7.3059360730593621,"b":37.260273972602747,"l":157.07762557077629},"paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.611872146118724},"xaxis":{"domain":[0,1],"automargin":true,"type":"linear","autorange":false,"range":[-0.050000000000000003,1.05],"tickmode":"array","ticktext":["0%","25%","50%","75%","100%"],"tickvals":[0,0.25,0.5,0.75,1],"categoryorder":"array","categoryarray":["0%","25%","50%","75%","100%"],"nticks":null,"ticks":"","tickcolor":null,"ticklen":3.6529680365296811,"tickwidth":0,"showticklabels":true,"tickfont":{"color":"rgba(77,77,77,1)","family":"","size":11.68949771689498},"tickangle":-0,"showline":false,"linecolor":null,"linewidth":0,"showgrid":true,"gridcolor":"rgba(235,235,235,1)","gridwidth":0.66417600664176002,"zeroline":false,"anchor":"y","title":{"text":"Probability","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.611872146118724}},"hoverformat":".2f"},"yaxis":{"domain":[0,1],"automargin":true,"type":"linear","autorange":false,"range":[0.40000000000000002,3.6000000000000001],"tickmode":"array","ticktext":["Will Congress pass<br />legislation to prevent<br />or delay new federal<br />restrictions on<br />hemp-derived THC products<br />from taking effect?","Will Pete Hegseth still<br />be serving as Secretary<br />of Defense on November<br />19?","Will the opening weekend<br />domestic box office for<br />Practical Magic 2 exceed<br />that of Practical Magic<br />(in inflation-adjusted<br />dollars)?"],"tickvals":[1,2,3],"categoryorder":"array","categoryarray":["Will Congress pass<br />legislation to prevent<br />or delay new federal<br />restrictions on<br />hemp-derived THC products<br />from taking effect?","Will Pete Hegseth still<br />be serving as Secretary<br />of Defense on November<br />19?","Will the opening weekend<br />domestic box office for<br />Practical Magic 2 exceed<br />that of Practical Magic<br />(in inflation-adjusted<br />dollars)?"],"nticks":null,"ticks":"","tickcolor":null,"ticklen":3.6529680365296811,"tickwidth":0,"showticklabels":true,"tickfont":{"color":"rgba(77,77,77,1)","family":"","size":11.68949771689498},"tickangle":-0,"showline":false,"linecolor":null,"linewidth":0,"showgrid":true,"gridcolor":"rgba(235,235,235,1)","gridwidth":0.66417600664176002,"zeroline":false,"anchor":"x","title":{"text":"","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.611872146118724}},"hoverformat":".2f"},"shapes":[],"showlegend":false,"legend":{"bgcolor":null,"bordercolor":null,"borderwidth":0,"font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":11.68949771689498}},"hovermode":"closest","barmode":"relative"},"config":{"doubleClick":"reset","modeBarButtonsToAdd":["hoverclosest","hovercompare"],"showSendToCloud":false,"displayModeBar":false},"source":"A","attrs":{"29582d2858c7":{"x":{},"y":{},"colour":{},"fill":{},"shape":{},"text":{},"type":"scatter"},"295856e07827":{"xintercept":{}}},"cur_data":"29582d2858c7","visdat":{"29582d2858c7":["function (y) ","x"],"295856e07827":["function (y) ","x"]},"highlight":{"on":"plotly_click","persistent":false,"dynamic":false,"selectize":false,"opacityDim":0.20000000000000001,"selected":{"opacity":1},"debounce":0},"shinyEvents":["plotly_hover","plotly_click","plotly_selected","plotly_relayout","plotly_brushed","plotly_brushing","plotly_clickannotation","plotly_doubleclick","plotly_deselect","plotly_afterplot","plotly_sunburstclick"],"base_url":"https://plot.ly"},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>
315 316</div> 317</div> 318</section> 319<section id="week-3-98" class="level2"> 320<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="week-3-98">Week 3 (9/8)</h2> 321<div class="cell"> 322<div class="cell-output-display"> 323<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-894a47352262f0036466" style="width:100%;height:464px;"></div>
324<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-894a47352262f0036466">{"x":{"data":[{"x":[0.16,0.66000000000000003],"y":[2.0208084528148174,0.90053007930517193],"text":["Crowd (16%)","Crowd (66%)"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"triangle-up","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Crowd,1)","legendgroup":"(Crowd,1)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.10000000000000001,0.14999999999999999],"y":[2.9388853893242777,3.9636902005225418],"text":["Crowd (10%)","Crowd (15%)"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Crowd,2)","legendgroup":"(Crowd,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.25,0.56999999999999995],"y":[2.0151812204904855,1.1031266114488245],"text":["Joe Ornstein (25%): Both the Inside View<br />(prediction markets, vibes) and Outside View<br />(historical correlates of Emmy wins) seem to agree<br />on this one. Rhys is practically a shoo-in for<br />the Widow's Peak category, but more of a long-shot<br />for the The Beast In Me. Its primary competition<br />is Oscar Isaac in *Beef*, which has more major<br />nominations and critical acclaim. It's not a<br />sure thing: upsets appear to happen reasonably<br />frequently in this category, so I'm going to be<br />slightly more cautious than the current prediction<br />market odds.","Joe Ornstein (57%): Outside View: this<br />has happened 50% of the time over the past<br />decade of Emmys. Inside View: the Kalshi<br />odds (with some adjustment for the fact that<br />Series/Director/Writer awards tend to be<br />correlated) suggest a probability in the mid-60s,<br />with Widow's Bay being slightly more likely than a<br />coin flip to take home five or more major awards.<br />I'll split the difference and put my prediction at<br />57%."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"triangle-up","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Joe Ornstein,1)","legendgroup":"(Joe Ornstein,1)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.029999999999999999,0.040000000000000001],"y":[3.0815796674229206,3.9172937330976128],"text":["Joe Ornstein (3%): As I understand it, a Russian<br />offensive that could accomplish this within two<br />months would be something that we could clearly<br />observe preparations for today, and there are<br />no indications of such preparations underway.<br />CIA Director Ratcliffe's recent visit to Moscow<br />underscores the US intelligence assessment that<br />the war is not going well for Russia. In the<br />(unlikely) event of a negotiated settlement within<br />the next few months, I cannot imagine Ukraine<br />ceding territory west of the river to Russia.<br />Bumping my probability to 3% out of epistemic<br />humility (this is not my field of expertise).","Joe Ornstein (4%): This is an exceedingly rare<br />occurrence; doubly so in a hurricane season<br />as quiet as this one is projected to be. UGA<br />cancelled classes during Hurricane Helene in 2024<br />(the only time it has done so this century). And<br />that year's hurricane season was quite active,<br />with a historically high NOAA outlook in August<br />(17-24 named storms). This year's NOAA outlook is<br />comparatively quiet (7-13 named storms). I'd bet<br />heavily against it."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","legendgroup":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.12,0.65000000000000002,0.20000000000000001,0.75,0.040000000000000001,0.71999999999999997,0.23000000000000001,0.69999999999999996,0.14999999999999999,0.75,0.25,0.75,0.13,0.59999999999999998,0.14999999999999999,0.65000000000000002,0.14999999999999999,0.75,0.14999999999999999,0.75,0.41999999999999998,0.40000000000000002,0.20000000000000001,0.25,0.14999999999999999,0.65000000000000002,0.040000000000000001,0.59999999999999998,0.14999999999999999,0.45000000000000001,0.37,0.69999999999999996,0.20000000000000001,0.68000000000000005,0.20000000000000001,0.84999999999999998,0.16,0.59999999999999998,0.22,0.81999999999999995,0.14999999999999999,0.40000000000000002,0.17999999999999999,0.59999999999999998,0.14999999999999999,0.59999999999999998,0.25,0.69999999999999996,0.10000000000000001,0.69999999999999996,0.11,0.51000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.84999999999999998,0.25,0.65000000000000002,0.16,0.69999999999999996,0.20000000000000001,0.65000000000000002,0.20000000000000001,0.65000000000000002,0.14000000000000001,0.69999999999999996,0.050000000000000003,1,0.12,0.75,0.20000000000000001,0.40000000000000002,0.20000000000000001,0.59999999999999998,0.14999999999999999,0.77000000000000002],"y":[1.9494027381762862,1.0509733584336935,2.0783072184771298,1.0417610644176603,1.9815320707671344,0.99429315278306607,1.951562805697322,1.0609253792092204,2.0506708496250212,0.910694014
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It is unclear if<br />he will win the Outstanding Lead Actor in Limited<br />Series for The Beast in Me. However it could be a<br />historical win of him getting nominated and both<br />being in a leading actor position. Only one male<br />actor won two in one year in 1991, but not both as<br />lead actors.","Anya Biswas (65%): The Pitt, Widow's Bay, Hacks,<br />and Pluribus are the series to consider for this.<br />There has been precedent in the past for series<br />winning 5 or more. The Pitt has great chances of<br />winning at least three, but it is hard to get it<br />to the 5. Widow's Bay seems to be the favorite<br />right now. It is unclear if they will be able<br />to get 5, but they have good chances of winning<br />several.","Bain Fulcher (20%): Matthew Rhys is predicted to<br />win the Emmy for Outstanding Actor in a Comedy<br />Series. According to Gold Derby, he is predicted<br />to have a 94.8% chance of winning that category.<br />His second nomination is for Outstanding Actor<br />in a Limited Series or Movie, and the competition<br />in this category is much fiercer. Oscar Isaac<br />is predicted to have a 75.7% chance of winning,<br />and Rhys is predicted to have an 18.9% chance,<br />according to Gold Derby. It is likely that he will<br />win Outstanding Actor in a Comedy Series, but I<br />think he will lose Outstanding Actor in a Limited<br />Series or Movie to Oscar Isaac. There's a chance<br />he could win both, but I think it is unlikely.","Bain Fulcher (75%): \"The Pitt\" has received<br />25 nominations and, according to Variety, is<br />predicted to win 7. Widow's Bay has already won<br />8 Creative Arts Emmy Awards and is predicted by<br />Variety to win 7 more. It is very likely that<br />at least one of these shows will win five or<br />more major awards. However, the Emmys can be<br />unpredictable, leaving some room for doubt.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (4%): No, Matthew Rhys will<br />not win both of his Emmy categories. Although<br />Matthew Rhys is predicted to win for his show<br />Widowâs Bay in the outstanding actor in comedy<br />category, he is not predicted to win for his other<br />category, drama. Beef is expected to win, but<br />Rhys still has a good shot at winning the Comedy<br />category. It is also extremely rare for someone to<br />win two Emmys in one cycle. However, I'm not very<br />well-versed in pop culture, so I made it 5%t o<br />sustain some possibility for him to win both.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (72%): Yes, a single<br />streaming service could win five or more major<br />awards at the Emmy Awards. If we look at the<br />nominations, The Pitt alone has been nominated<br />for 12 major awards, with Hacks and Widowâs Bay<br />close behind. It is plausible that one streaming<br />service gets 5+ major awards due to the incredible<br />stacking of nominations in each series. However,<br />I am not certain enough to say it conclusively.<br />Scrolling through Wikipedia showed that 3/5 or 4/5<br />years a streaming series has won 5+ major awards,<br />but it is still a bit of a tossup.","Brian Sadenwasser (23%): I multiplied the percent<br />chance of Rhys winning each Emmy sepearetly<br />according to Polymarket to get my probability.<br />According to Polymarket (as of 9/7), Rhys has a<br />96% of winning outstanding lead actor in a comedy<br />series and a 24% of winning outstanding lead<br />actor in a limited or anthology series or movie.<br />Multiplied together, I got 23%.","Brian Sadenwasser (70%): The Pitt has been<br />nominated for 12 \"major\" awards. I believe The<br />Pitt has the best chance of winning 5. Hacks (7<br />nominations), Widow's Bay (7 nominations), and<br />Pluribus (6 nominations) also have a chance to<br />win 5 major awards. I adjusted my prediction<br />
324downward slighly after the class discussion,<br />although I still believe it is likely. Source:<br />https://www.televisionacademy.com/shows/","Brianna Speizer (15%): Rhys is widely considered<br />a frontrunner for best actor in a comedy series<br />for Widowâs Bay with GoldDerby giving him a 93.3%<br />chance, but does not seem to be predicted to win<br />for The Beast in Me. There are only two other<br />people in history to win both comedy and drama<br />category lead acting awards which means it would<br />start off as a low odd for him to be able to<br />do so. Also, in his category for Movie/Limited<br />Actor he is only given a 16.8% chance to win with<br />Oscar Isaac being predicted to win with 79.1% by<br />GoldDerby, a popular entertainment website that<br />predicts winners for major awards shows.","Brianna Speizer (75%): Yes, I believe that it is<br />highly possible that a single streaming series<br />would win five or more major awards at the Emmy<br />Awards. There are 46 shows that have over five<br />nominations, and a couple of these have very high<br />numbers. These include The Pitt with 25, Hacks<br />with 24, Widowâs Bay with 19, Pluribus with 18,<br />and Beef with 16.","Caitlyn McMullen (25%): I am keeping my prior<br />probability of 25. I agree with the class<br />sentiment that he is highly likely to win for the<br />comedy category and his lead role in Widows Bay,<br />but I think Oscar Isaac will beat him out for<br />his second nomination. Additionally, a classmate<br />brought up the point that the voting for Emmy<br />winners has changed to now include much more<br />people in the television industry. The Beast in<br />Me did not get as much traction as Beef, and the<br />likelihood of winning both nominations is slim.<br />However, it is the Emmys and there are always<br />shocks and upsets so I would not be incredibly<br />shocked if Rhys won both, hence why I am keeping<br />my prediction at a 25 probability.","Caitlyn McMullen (75%): I am keeping my<br />same probability prediction. After the class<br />discussion, and more clarification on \"Major<br />Awards\" and what is considered a \"streaming<br />service,\" I am confident that at least one of<br />the following shows will win 5 or more Emmys:<br />Widow's Bay, The Pitt, or Hacks. Especially<br />considering the voting changes that the Emmys<br />have undergone, shows are likely to dominate when<br />they perform well and are popular. The Pitt had an<br />exceptionally successful second season and Hacks<br />is nominated for its final season, which often<br />correlates to more awards received since it is<br />the end. The only reason I am not sliding my score<br />higher is that the Emmys always has upsets and<br />unexpected winners, so it is not, in my opinion,<br />better than a 75% probability that a show will win<br />at least 5 major awards- also, over than half of<br />the past 6 award seasons have had a show win at<br />least 5, so it is definitely probable, but it may<br />not be this year.","Carter Ray (13%): I place Rhys's odds at winning<br />the comedy series pick at 90%, and his odds at<br />winning the actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series<br />Or Movie at around 15%. Due to his past success<br />at winning an emmy and general predictions online,<br />he seems to be one of the top two favorites to win<br />both nominations, placing his odds at greater than<br />the default 4%. Multiplied together, .90 and .15<br />net a 13% chance. While his odds seem extremely<br />strong to win his Emmy for Widow's Bay, he is not<br />the favorite to win his secondary nomination. It's<br />also extremely rare that someone would win Emmy's<br />in two separate categories.","Carter Ray (60%): After realizing what major<br />categories actually means, I am revising my<br />estimate significantly to about 60%, primarily<br />because of the chance that Widow's Bay has to<br />win 5 or more. Currently, Widow's Bay has a<br />significant chance to win at least 5 Emmys, and a<br />plurality chance to win a sixth. After summing the<br />odds, the chances were roughly 56%. In addition,<br />there is an outside chance that The Pitt could<br />unexpectedly win a fifth Emmy, while they are<br />currently favored for Four, which I give a ~5%<br />chance.","Celina Simone (15%): After class today my<br />prediction has gotten lower, just because of<br />points made about the historic nature of Rhys<br />winning both nominations. Currently Oscar Isaac is<br />the top prediction for his role in \"Beef 2.\" While<br />\"The Beast in Me\" had a stronger start than \"Beef<br />2\" the later ended with higher reviews, more Emmy<br />nominations, a more successful press tour, and<br />more attention on Oscar Isaac than the former. It<br />also helps that the Emmy Award voters tend to be<br />creatures of habit and the first season of \"Beef\"<br />had considerable wins and aclaim. There is still<br />a possibility for Rhys to win as he is believed<br />to be the only true competition to Isaac, he as<br />an individual has gotten lots of media attention<br />for his historic Emmy nominations, and actors who<br />are in a lower rated show can still be awarded<br />if their performance exceed the script. However<br />I find it highly unlikely looking at pop culture<br />publications predictions.","Celina Simone (65%): With shows like \"The Pitt\"<br />\"Widow's Bay\" and \"Hacks\" in the running it is a<br />possibility that a show could win all 5 Emmy's.<br />\"The Pitt\" is the most likely contender with its<br />past popularity and the buzz around the show.<br />In the past there have been streaming shows<br />that have accomplished it so there is precedent.<br />As none of the shows have accomplished it in<br />the past however, and with other popular non<br />streaming shows in the categories I am cautiously<br />opptimistic.","Christopher Heyl (15%): Listening to other people<br />who are more savvy on the Emmies in class today<br />has led me to revise down my initial prediction<br />to 15%. While there is a reality where Rhys could<br />
324pull off a historic sweep of his nominations, I<br />doubt the academy allows that to happen. Further,<br />considering the new way awards are decided this<br />year makes me doubt the odds of Rhys winning<br />Limited Series Actor, with Beef seeming to be the<br />clear frontrunner in terms of popularity which<br />seems to be the new best indicator rather than<br />pure ratings. For all these reasons I have revised<br />down my forecast to 15%.","Christopher Heyl (75%): Based on discussions<br />in class today I have decided to stick with my<br />initial prediction of 75%. I think it is more<br />likely than not that Widow's bay wins at least 5<br />awards during this year's Emmy's. The possibility<br />that the Pitt could also win 5 further cements my<br />confidence on this one.","Dean McDonald (15%): I revised my forecast down<br />due from 20% to 15% as while most of my previous<br />reasoning stands (one of the awards is generally<br />believed to be secured, while most do not believe<br />he will win the second one), 20% still felt too<br />generous with how bleak every prediction was.","Dean McDonald (75%): My original forecast<br />missed the addendum \"major awards as defined by<br />wikipedia\". Because this very feat has already<br />happened, it cannot be discounted. In addition,<br />8 different shows (7 streaming) have enough<br />nominations, and the traction behind The Pitt (12<br />major nominations) lends it a significant shot at<br />winning 5.","Denton Alexander (42%): Rhys is nominated for<br />\"Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology<br />Series or Movie\" for A Beast in Me. He is up<br />against big name actor Jason Bateman, but for a<br />show I have not heard of. He is also up against<br />a very popular show, Beef (who has already won 3<br />Emmys), but for a less critically acclaimed actor.<br />Personally I believe he should win, and I think<br />there is a 65% chance that he will. Rhys is also<br />up for \"Outstanding Comedy Series as an Executive<br />Producer\" for Widow's Bay. The show is clearly a<br />fan favorite and has already won 8 Emmys. However,<br />very popular and critically acclaimed shows<br />are also in this category: Only Murders in the<br />Building, Abbott Elementary, and The Bear. I think<br />there is also a 65% chance of the Emmy for this<br />since the show just debuted its first season.","Denton Alexander (40%): After further review of<br />the terms, I have upped my probability but I still<br />believe it is less likely to happen. The Pitt<br />is nominated for the most categories, 7, I think<br />they will win at least 3, probably 4, but I do<br />not think they will take home 5+. Last year, The<br />Pitt was also nominated for 5, and only won 3, but<br />it was the first season. Hacks is nominated for<br />6 categories, I think they will win 2. Last year<br />they were nominated for 5 and won 2, but this year<br />was the last season. Widow's Bay is nominated for<br />6 categories, I think they will win 4. Pluribus<br />is nominated for 6 categories, I think they will<br />win 1 and take a category win from The Pitt. Slow<br />Horses is nominated for 5 categories, I think they<br />will win 1 and take a category win from The Pitt.<br />The only other possible show is The Diplomat,<br />who is nominated for 5 categories. I think they<br />will win 1 category and take a category win from<br />The Pitt. There are 6 possible shows who could<br />accomplish this feat. In the last 10 years there<br />have been 10 streaming series to win 5+ Emmys, 5<br />of which were for their first season.","Dylan Goff (20%): While I do think its unlikley<br />the event will happen, there was new evidence<br />presented in class which did increase the<br />probability for me. I wasnt aware that he<br />was slated as being likley to win one of the<br />categories despite jason Segal being the GOAT.<br />This increased the odds for me, albeit not be much","Dylan Goff (25%): I do not think that any single<br />streaming series will win 5 or more awards this<br />year. This predication is largly based on class<br />discussion last prediction cycle concerning the<br />emmys, and overall the general lack of incredible<br />tv shows this year. While there were some hits<br />such as house of dragon, all and all there were<br />very few deserving of this icnredibly laudible<br />task","Edy Thompson (15%): Matthew Rhys is nominated<br />
324in two categories this year: Lead Actor Comedy<br />(Widowâs Bay) and Lead Limited Series Actor (The<br />Beast in Me). According to Gold Derby, Rhys is<br />a 94.5% favorite in Comedy but only a 18.3% in<br />Limited Series. So mathematically there is roughly<br />a 17% chance he wins both categories. I am gonna<br />lower that slightly and say 15%.","Edy Thompson (65%): Over the last five Emmy<br />ceremonies, only one series won more than<br />five major awards (The Crown, 2021). In 2023<br />both Succession and Beef hit five, as well as<br />Adolescence hitting 6 in 2025. Shogun only won<br />four in 2024. A single series won at least five<br />major awards in the past three out of five years.<br />So, Iâd say there is an 65% chance a single<br />streaming series wins at least five major awards.","Ella Vars (4%): If we look at this soley from<br />the outside view, the chance of him winning in<br />each category is 20%, since he is one out of<br />five nominated. If we multiply 0.2*0.2, we get<br />an outside probability of 0.04. The lead actor<br />categories for comedy and limited series are both<br />very competitive, so I don't think he has any real<br />advantage or disadvantage, so I will stick with<br />the outside view probability for my prediction.","Ella Vars (60%): The precendent has been set<br />for this occuring in 4/5 of the last Emmy Award<br />shows. However, no show is predicted to win 5 or<br />more for this round of awards. Therefore I put<br />my prediction at just over 50%, as there are many<br />frontrunners for this achievement when looking at<br />primetime award nominations.","Eva Carnes (15%): There hasnât been a male<br />nominated for two major categories as lead actor<br />since the 90s. Matthew Rhys is popular, and while<br />he may win one of the two awards it is extremely<br />unlikely that he will win both. This has not<br />happened historically and when looking at the<br />nominations he received, he only seems like the<br />probable candidate for one of the two. Beef will<br />likely win one of the awards.","Eva Carnes (45%): Initially, I read streaming<br />series as streaming services. Only 5 series<br />received >5 major nominations and only 4 of the<br />5 are streaming series. Some other streaming<br />series received exactly 5 major nominations<br />and the likelihood of them winning all 5 is<br />extremely slim. While it is not unprecedented<br />for a streaming series to win 5 major awards, the<br />Emmyâs demoted several categories to no longer<br />be considered as major awards. Which makes the<br />likelihood of this occurring lower.","Hailey Chae (37%): After seeing my classmates'<br />predictions and knowing it is unlikely the<br />Emmys would award two awards to one recipient,<br />I lowered my probability. Matthew Rhys is the<br />favorite to win Lead Actor in a Comedy for Widowâs<br />Bay, and the show has already won eight Emmys<br />at the Creative Arts ceremony, more than any<br />other production at the ceremony. However, his<br />other category, The Beast in Me, is much more<br />competitive, with big names like Oscar Isaac<br />nominated.","Hailey Chae (70%): I think this is fairly likely<br />because several streaming shows are heavily<br />favored in their categories. For example, Widowâs<br />Bay has already won eight Emmys at the Creative<br />Arts Emmys and is expected to win several more<br />at the main ceremony. We also talked about in the<br />previous class about Matthew Rhys probably winning<br />the comedy category for Widow's Bay. The Pitt<br />is another strong contender, with 25 nominations<br />and four wins already. Because both shows are<br />competing in several major categories, I think<br />there is a good chance that at least one of them<br />reaches five or more major wins. I raised it by 2%<br />because after discussion, I feel fairly confident<br />there will probably be at least one show with 5 or<br />more wins based on past years","Hannah Hartley (20%): The overall consensus of the<br />class is that the Rhys will not win both awards. I<br />do believe that the Emmys have the potential to be<br />unpredictable, however the general lack of belief<br />that he will win the second award is influencing<br />me to believe that he will not. I am keeping my<br />prediction the same to reflect my uncertainty that<br />he will win both awards.","Hannah Hartley (68%): After the class discu
324ssion<br />breaking down the history of streaming series<br />wins, along with the probability of multiple<br />streaming series to win landing around 3 or 4, it<br />believe it is likely that a series like The Pitt<br />could win one more than predicted, and therefore<br />would meet the requirements for this prediction.<br />While I am not 100% confident this will happen,<br />I do believe it is likely due to the statistics<br />discussed in class, however I am sticking with my<br />more moderate prediction.","Haven Priem (20%): I do not believe that he will<br />win both of them, it's extremely rare for this to<br />happen. As well the emmys tend to favor certain<br />shows that are repeated winners and they are going<br />against beef so I feel like beef will win the one<br />award. I think it's likely he wins one but both is<br />alot.","Haven Priem (85%): I feel even more confident<br />after hearing other people talk that at least one<br />streaming series will be able to take home five<br />awards. Especially with it being hacks last season<br />and with how record breaking and successful the<br />pitt was with season two.","Isabella Picciano (16%): Joint probability<br />because in order for the statement to be true,<br />Matthew Rhys must win both categories: Outstanding<br />Lead Actor in a Comedy Series (Widowâs Bay) and<br />Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology<br />Series or Movie (The Beast in Me). There are<br />5 nominees per category meaning Matthew Rhys<br />has a 20% chance of winning each one. Next I<br />considered further evidence released from Vanity<br />and GoldDerby forecasters. GoldDerby predicts a<br />90% chance that Rhys will win Best Comedy Actor<br />for Widowâs Bay. Vanity fair also predicted him<br />as the winner. For his second nomination, odds<br />are not in his favor. Rhys is running up against,<br />most notably, Oscar Isaac, who starred in Beef<br />and is favored by both GoldDerby and Vanity Fair.<br />GoldDerby predicts that Rhys has a 17.4% chance<br />of winning that category. Other evidence we can<br />consider is that Widowâs Bay has received 19<br />nominations and Beast in Me has earned around<br />nine. For the purpose of calculating probability,<br />I multiplied 17.4% and 90% to get approximately<br />16% probability that he wins both. However, there<br />are further considerations that can play a role.<br />For example, Rhys is a respected actor, already<br />winning Lead Actor in a Drama in 2018. Also,<br />people are less inclined to vote for the same<br />person twice also known as the âSpread the wealthâ<br />effect. Finally, an Emmy nominee winning two<br />different categories in the same year is entirely<br />possible and is not a historical anomaly. Maya<br />Rudolph, Alex Borstein, and Allison Janney have<br />all won two Emmy categories for different roles.","Isabella Picciano (60%): Major Awardsâ as defined<br />by Wikipedia \"constitutes the categories listed<br />above: program, acting, directing, and writing),<br />meaning that in terms of this question, Creative<br />Arts categories would not count. First, I looked<br />at the streaming series with multiple âmajorâ<br />wins from the Emmyâs 2025. Adolescence, receiving<br />6 âmajorâ awards, was the only series that met<br />the questions threshold. Something I particularly<br />found interesting was the fact that the show The<br />Studio, despite getting 13 awards in total (more<br />than Adolescence) did not meet the questionâs<br />threshold because out of the 13 awards, only 4<br />were âmajor.â This demonstrates that a streaming<br />series can receive five or more âmajorâ awards<br />but even extremely popular series like The Studio,<br />won't meet the threshold. Despite my surprise,<br />streaming series have repeatedly crossed the<br />five award threshold in recent years. Examples<br />include Schittâs Creek (2020), The Crown (2021),<br />and The White Lotus (2022). Next I looked at the<br />current 2026 Emmy Nominees. The Pitt is currently<br />nominated for 12 major awards. Hacks and Widowâs<br />Bay are currently nominated for 7 major awards.<br />Pluribus is currently nominated for 6 major<br />awards. All of these awards are spread across 6<br />different major award categories. In reference<br />to this question, we should focus on whether or<br />not the show wins at least five different major<br />categories because each category gives the show<br />
324one win. After class discussion, I learned that<br />although streaming services are being nominated<br />more, there is less likelihood that theyâre going<br />to win more. I also learned that the Emmyâs took<br />out multiple major award categories that were<br />present when shows in previous years won at least<br />5 and their voting pattern has changed too. These<br />facts, including tthe fact that streaming series<br />take up most of the 6 major award categories, and<br />that only one series needs to reach five to meet<br />the threshold, lowers my probability prediction to<br />60%.","Jacob Nabors (22%): While Rhys is predicted to<br />win the first category, the odds that he wins<br />the second are much lower. By having this be a<br />compound probability since he must win both, the<br />odds significantly decrease when being multiplied.<br />The odds that he wins both categories are thus<br />quite low.","Jacob Nabors (82%): The current lineup of shows<br />that have been nominated are almost all from<br />streaming platforms. There are significant amounts<br />of shows that also have several nominations making<br />the possibility of winning at least five higher.<br />There also is historical president of shows<br />sweeping awards in major categories. While there<br />are chances that it could not happen, it does<br />appear highly likely to happen.","Jason Eappen (15%): Matthew Rhys has the<br />opportunity to make history at the Emmy's.<br />However, even though he is bound to win one Emmy,<br />to win two in different categories can be a very<br />challenging feat. He is currently the frontrunner<br />to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series<br />for his role in Apple TV+'s Widow's Bay. He is<br />more than likely to win one category. The question<br />now becomes can he win both. History says it has<br />not been done before and I think that trend will<br />continue. There are others who are pulling ahead<br />including Issac Oscar. With others in the lead, it<br />makes it even more diffcult to Matthew Rhys to win<br />both.","Jason Eappen (40%): There seems to be a lot of<br />motivation behind Hacks, being in their final<br />season, having a greater chance to win 5 of more<br />major awards. There has been past shows, espically<br />in the last season, have then to have good chances<br />to win all 5. Even though the chances are still<br />rare, there has been past shows that have done it<br />before.","Jordan Sanderson (18%): Winning in both categories<br />is less likely than him having favorable odds<br />in one group. For comedy specifically, Matthew's<br />focus is central on Widow Bays, and other<br />contenders (such as Steve Carrel)have several<br />nominations but no actual wins for the Emmy.","Jordan Sanderson (60%): The criteria requires that<br />only ONE streaming serious would need to win 5<br />or more major awards at the Emmys. With multiple<br />nominations for popular shows such as The Pitt<br />or Widows Bays I think the projects are really<br />high that a show will win 5 or even surpass that.<br />The range over the years, however, has been under<br />5, centering around 3 or 4. So there is some<br />skepticism.","Joshua Mui (15%): I'm leaning towards no.<br />According to my research it's never happened<br />before that an actor where an actor has won<br />Outstanding Actor in multiple categories in the<br />same year, which makes me lean lower. If I'm<br />trying to get into the head of the people who run<br />the Emmy awards, it's sort of a prestige thing,<br />and I don't think they would want it to happen as<br />a point of pride. In addition, Oscar Issac seems<br />to be the betting (predicting?) favorite on Kalshi<br />for limited series, which dulls my confidence even<br />further. With extra consideration towards that<br />last point, I'm knocking my initial forecast 5<br />points.","Joshua Mui (60%): The Pitt' leads the field<br />with the most nominations, and the widespread<br />appeal of the show gives it credibility in teams<br />of popularity. In recent years, it's become<br />increasingly common for a show to sweep through<br />5+ major wins, which makes me confident, but<br />ultimately not that confident. to win at least 5-7<br />is still a tall order, no matter the year. Even<br />
324after class discussion, I'm hesitant to raise my<br />score, as I cannot really predict the mood of the<br />voter.","Julia Krehbiel (25%): I am leaving my probability<br />the same because I still agree with my original<br />probability that the likelihood throughout history<br />of winning 2 categories as an actor is extremely<br />rare and maybe even unprecedented. It is also<br />very rare to win both in an acting category.<br />A student today brought up that actresses have<br />done it before and that a male actor like Matthew<br />Rhys doing it would be positive for the optics of<br />the Emmys, so that is why I am leaving a slight<br />chance.","Julia Krehbiel (70%): I am lowering my probability<br />just slightly but still keeping it relatively high<br />because there have been cases in the past where<br />no streaming series has won more than 5 Emmys, and<br />that was relatively recently. However, there have<br />also been cases where a single streaming series<br />has won 11 and 13 Emmys in a year, and with The<br />Widows Bay being in its final series, I feel like<br />if they were to win 5 or more, this would for sure<br />be the year.","Kiefer Adams (10%): I am revising my prediction<br />to a 10% chance that Matthew Rhys wins both of<br />his Emmy categories. This is because, based on our<br />class discussion, the Emmys usually don't award<br />two Emmys to the same actor, and he is favored<br />to win one already. That may make the second<br />conditional on the first, making it more difficult<br />to win and decreasing Rhys's odds even further<br />against Oscar Isaac.","Kiefer Adams (70%): I am revising my forecast to<br />be a 70% chance that a single streaming series<br />will win five or more major Emmy awards. Based<br />on the number of nominations, as well as the<br />historical precedence of series winning at least<br />five major awards, I see it as likely that at<br />least one series will win five major awards. I<br />am still leaving a 30% chance that this will not<br />happen, though, because of the recent decline in<br />streaming service's series receiving awards.","Krish Chinta (11%): The historical probability<br />of a male actor winning two leading actor Emmys<br />in the same year is extremely low. According to<br />prediction market forecasters, Rhys seems to be a<br />lock for winning Lead Actor in a Comedy Series but<br />is a distant second in the Lead Actor in a Limited<br />Series category to Oscar Issac, with Kalshi<br />placing his chances of winning at around 20%.<br />Considering the individual chances of him winning<br />both, the historical rareness, and the greater<br />popularity of Beef compared to The Beast in Me, I<br />expect the probability to be around 11%.","Krish Chinta (51%): This question is essentially<br />asking if Widow's Bay wins five primetime Emmys,<br />given that they, by far, have the best chance of<br />accomplishing this feat. They have a strong chance<br />of winning 6 awards and are close to a lock in<br />four of these six, making Supporting Actor and<br />Writing the awards most in contention. They face<br />Harrison Ford in the Supporting Actor race and<br />strongest intracategory competition Hacks in the<br />Writing category. Hacks has won half of their<br />writing nominations, but Widow's Bay is likely<br />favored given their far stronger performance in<br />the preliminary awards. The probability of them<br />losing both, assuming they are both functionally<br />coin flips is 25%, but I think the actual chance<br />of losing both is a bit higher given voter fatigue<br />and wave voting reduces the chance of them winning<br />one but not the other. This must be balanced with<br />the not too unlikely chance of them somehow losing<br />a category they are a relative lock (80+%) to win,<br />which gets me to an overall percentage of around<br />51.","Leah Mojica (10%): I think Matthew Rhys has a<br />very low chance of winning both categories at<br />the Emmys. Someone mentioned today that it is<br />extremely rare for someone to win both categories<br />and that it hasn't happened since the 1990s (if I<br />remember correctly). I also think he is up against<br />some tough competition, such as Charlie Hunnam,<br />who starred in Monster: The Ed Gein Story, which<br />was extremely popular and successful this year.","Leah Mojica (85%): I originally was on the fence<br />about this one because I thought that it could go<br />
324either way. However, after our class discussion,<br />I've realized that this occurs a lot more often<br />than I thought. It is actually pretty common<br />for someone to win 5 emmys and there are a few<br />people/series with a lot of nominations in major<br />categories.","Matthew Fern (25%): After talking with the<br />class, I am slightly more confident that Matthew<br />Rhys will not receive the Emmy for both of his<br />nominations this year. It seems to me like the<br />discussion leaders were incredibly confident he<br />would not get it, and I am inclined to believe<br />them, as many of them said that they had seen him<br />act. However, I also believe that the Emmys can<br />be a very interesting award, and I do not feel<br />incredibly confident in being able to predict<br />their exact decisions.","Matthew Fern (65%): I am dropping my probability<br />to 65%. While I did receive a lot of new insight<br />into how the Emmys operates and probability, I<br />would say it barely moved the pendulum for me.<br />Many people provided some great ideas about which<br />shows might make it or not, which made me want to<br />increase my probability. But then we found that<br />only 3/5 years have had this happen, and that the<br />Emmys removed 5 primetime/major awards, making it<br />even more difficult to cross this threshold.","Megan Tate (16%): My original forecast was 30%,<br />but after doing further calculations, I think that<br />might be too high. Rhys has a very good chance<br />of winning the Comedy Series category (91.5%),<br />but his chances are considerably low in the<br />Limited Series category (18%). I multiplied both<br />probabilities (according to Gold Derby) and ended<br />up with a 16% chance that he wins both categories.<br />I think 16% is a more reasonable forecast because<br />it is very unlikely he will win both categories.","Megan Tate (70%): I estimate there is a 70%<br />chance that any streaming series will win five or<br />more major awards at the Emmy Awards. My biggest<br />reason for this high forecast is that The Pitt,<br />Hacks, Widowâs Bay, and Pluribus all have 15+<br />nominations, giving each show many opportunities<br />to win. The Pitt is especially well positioned<br />because it has 25 nominations, is heavily favored<br />for Drama Series, and has several major acting<br />contenders. We will have to watch and see what<br />happens on Monday, but I think 70% is a reasonable<br />forecast.","Mera Moucharrafie (20%): I put my prediction<br />at 20% because I think it is more likely that<br />Matthew Rhys will win one category, \"Outstanding<br />Lead Actor in a Comedy Series\" instead of both<br />(along with \"Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited<br />Anthology Series or Movie\"). According to Variety,<br />Rhys's \"Window's Bay\" is ranked #1 over other Emmy<br />nominations in this category (Only Murders in the<br />Building, Wonder Woman, Rooster, and Shrinking).<br />On the other hand, Rhys's nomination for \"The<br />Beast in Me\" is not ranked as highly, as he faces<br />many other strong competitors, such as Charlie<br />Hunnam in \"Monster: The Ed Gein Story\" that<br />received 55 million overall views and 12.2 million<br />views in the first 3 days; this received more<br />than Rhys's series, which only received 43 million<br />overall views, thus possibly having less of an<br />impact on the nomination. Other popular shows,<br />such as \"Beef\" received 16 Emmy nominations over<br />\"The Beast in Me's\" 9 Emmy nominations, according<br />to Netflix.","Mera Moucharrafie (65%): There are shows like<br />\"Widow's Bay\" and \"The Pitt\" that have been<br />extremely popular in 2025 and 2026. \"The Pitt\"<br />had a great 2026 year, where it received 25 Emmy<br />nominations, with 13 being acting nominations,<br />according to Vogue. On the other hand, \"Widow's<br />Bay\" made its debut in 2026, and received 29 Emmy<br />nominations. According to the AP 2026 Emmy Awards,<br />\"Widow's Bay\" has already received 8 Emmys at the<br />early ceremony, and \"The Pitt' received 4 Emmys.<br />It is likely that one of these shows may win five<br />or more major awards due to their popularity and<br />acting.","Michelle Villanueva (20%): After listening to<br />the arguments brought up in class, I lowered my<br />prediction from 25% to 20% that Matthew Rhys will<br />win both of his Emmy categories. I still think<br />he has a very strong chance of winning Lead Actor<br />in a Comedy for Widowâs Bay, especially because<br />the show has already performed very well at the<br />Emmys. However, some people brought up that Oscar<br />Isaac is the clear favorite in the limited-series<br />category, with prediction markets giving him<br />around a 75% chance of winning, while some<br />markets put Rhys below 10%. Beef, the show Oscar<br />Isaac stars in, also already has a strong Emmy<br />history and has received a lot of media attention<br />this awards season. Since Rhys has to win both<br />categories for the prediction to resolve yes, I<br />lowered my forecast because his chances in the<br />limited-series category are much weaker. Someone<br />also mentioned in class that winning two acting<br />Emmys in the same year is historically very rare,<br />which made me even less confident that he will win<br />both.","Michelle Villanueva (65%): After listening to<br />the arguments brought up in class, I lowered my<br />prediction from 80% to 65%. One argument that<br />still makes me lean yes is that there is recent<br />precedent for individual shows winning at least<br />5 major awards, so reaching 5 is definitely<br />possible. However, what lowered my prediction was<br />that several of the main streaming contenders are<br />currently projected to come close to 5 without<br />necessarily reaching it. For example, Widowâs Bay<br />was discussed as being projected around four major<br />wins, while The Pitt was around 3 or 4 and Hacks<br />around 1 or 2.","Parker Buckroyd (14%): While Matthew Rhys appears<br />to have promising odds in the Outstanding Lead<br />Actor in a Comedy Series category, his chances<br />are slim in Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited<br />or Anthology Series or Movie on betting g<br />platforms such as Kalshi. If Rhys were to win<br />both categories he would be the first performer<br />in history to win all three major lead acting<br />categories, making this accomplishment highly<br />desirable but incredibly unachievable.","Parker Buckroyd (70%): By looking at past Emmy<br />Award results, it is clear to see that the 5 win<br />sweep of a streaming series is not unlikely, where<br />many shows are nominated for up to 25 categories.<br />
324The category of major awards makes this somewhat<br />more challenging, but still possible as seen in<br />The Crown and The Queen's Gambit's Emmy history.<br />Popular shows to observe this year are The Pitt<br />(25 nominations), Hacks (24 nominations), and<br />Widow's Bay (19 nominations), leading me to<br />forecast a 70% chance that a show takes home five<br />or more major awards at the Emmy's.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (5%): Since Matthew<br />Rhys is nominated for both lead categories,<br />it is highly unlikely that he will win both of<br />his Emmy nominations. In 1995, John Goldman was<br />the last one nominated for both male lead actor<br />nominations. I do think it is likely he will win<br />one, but not both.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (100%): This is already<br />a closed book. At the Emmy Awards' preliminary<br />ceremonies, multiple streaming series blew past<br />the five-award threshold. The comedy horror<br />Widow's Bay dominated the haul with 8 total<br />wins, while Amazon's Spider-Noir racked up 5 wins<br />(including special visual effects, sound editing,<br />and cinematography) right on the heels of its<br />cancellation news. Because streaming titles have<br />already cleared the benchmark prior to the main<br />telecast, the condition is definitively met.","Sarah Gregory (12%): I increased my probability<br />slightly because many critics are coming out<br />saying that he will win BOTH nominations.<br />Additionally, the optics of Rhys winning are<br />better than the other nominee in his category. I<br />still think it is unlikely that he will win both<br />categories, so my prediction remains low. Women<br />are more likely to win multiple categories, but a<br />man has still won multiple categories before.","Sarah Gregory (75%): It is 75% probable that<br />at least one streaming series will win five or<br />more major awards at the 2026 Emmy Awards. The<br />strongest candidates are The Pitt and Widowâs Bay,<br />which have 25 and 19 nominations, respectively.<br />Widowâs Bay has already won eight awards during<br />the early Emmy ceremonies, while The Pitt has<br />won four. With several major acting and series<br />categories still to be decided, there is a strong<br />chance that one of these shows reaches five or<br />more total wins.","Slate Jones (20%): 2 emmys in one night is a very<br />rare occurrence. Oscar isaac is favored to win<br />against Matthew Rhys on Kalshi, with around a 75%<br />chance of taking the award. It seems like there<br />may be some pressure to share the love on an emmys<br />night, and that since Oscar isaac is favored, and<br />Rhys will assuredly win the other emmy, they will<br />give the award to Oscar isaac.","Slate Jones (40%): The pitt, the most likely<br />candidate to win 5 emmys, won 3 major emmys<br />last time it was up, with 7 major nominations.<br />Meanwhile, it now has 12 major nominations. The<br />betting markets have the pitt at around a 50%<br />chance to win between 4 and 5 nominations, which<br />are not all considered major by wikipedia. The<br />competition this year for the emmys is much higher<br />than last year, so it will be difficult for the<br />pitt to secure 5 or more. However, it is still<br />very possible.","Will Steiner (20%): I've moved up a bit from<br />my original forecast. I think Rhys has a good<br />narrative working for him as an awards-show first,<br />but I think he faces strict competition against<br />Oscar Isaac for Beef. Ultimately, I still think<br />the name recognition of the latter will likely win<br />out, but it is not impossible that Rhys is able to<br />win over enough voters to win both categories.","Will Steiner (60%): If a series will win five,<br />it will either be Widow's Bay or The Pitt, with<br />a much stronger chance of the former winning five<br />than the latter. Widow's Bay has a good chance<br />in all the prediction markets; however, there's<br />so much variability in this category that I don't<br />feel much stronger than a coin flip on this one/","Ziyada Rakhimova (15%): Again, pretty low all<br />for the same reasons since I do not believe him<br />winning 2 emmys is possible a cause for a 3rd-<br />this is simply a positive correlation to him and<br />his portfolio and talent. I think Rhys has a solid<br />chance of winning another consecutive Emmy, but it<br />just wouldn't be because of him winning 2 already.","Ziyada Rakhimova (77%): I lowered my score just<br />by a bit contrastingly from my initial forecast<br />
324because of the in-class discussion we made. I do<br />believe that just because streaming series' such<br />as \"Widow's Bay\" and \"Spider-Noir\" won 5 or more<br />major awards at the Emmys, there is a correlation<br />with more series' doing the same, but I still am<br />not completely convinced there's a causation here."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"triangle-up","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Student,1)","legendgroup":"(Student,1)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.01,0.080000000000000002,0.14999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.040000000000000001,0.01,0.10000000000000001,0.12,0.14999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.20000000000000001,0.25,0.10000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.050000000000000003,0.029999999999999999,0.050000000000000003,0.050000000000000003,0.14999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.12,0.10000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.080000000000000002,0.10000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.29999999999999999,0.17999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.17999999999999999,0.40000000000000002,0.14999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.20000000000000001,0.070000000000000007,0.17000000000000001,0.02,0.14999999999999999,0.070000000000000007,0.13,0.050000000000000003,0.050000000000000003,0.14999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.029999999999999999,0.080000000000000002,0.20000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.12,0.10000000000000001,0.080000000000000002,0.14999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.25,0.94999999999999996,0.10000000000000001,0.12,0.12,0.10000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.029999999999999999,0.12,0.14999999999999999],"y":[3.0013190743513407,3.9740986400097609,2.9447755861468612,3.9433260491490363,3.0132050733827054,4.0986252097040419,3.1042439246736468,4.0986343816295268,3.0505949689820411,3.9155198110826315,2.9010170362517238,3.9538572670333085,3.0146725397184491,3.9773274011909963,2.9885838887281717,4.0127084356732663,2.9419052415713667,4.0216794958896935,2.9858865875937046,3.9074398450739682,3.0598328679800035,4.0834850026480858,2.9994291120395062,3.8936336640082301,3.0459313548356293,4.0456696405820551,2.9913825512118639,4.0443361519835888,3.0774608214944603,3.9433045041933656,2.9292461111582817,3.9786013077571987,3.0826692333072425,3.9303961198404433,3.0791040189564227,3.9078374722786249,3.0281251327134671,3.9805210680700838,2.9339863941259683,4.054694190081209,2.9343536502309142,3.9858732921630144,2.9193037186749278,4.0383994510769847,3.0573983568884433,3.9869493867643175,3.0075836097635329,3.987739946693182,3.1112676441483198,3.9200000957399608,3.1013354146108032,3.9432918234355747,2.9923360408656299,3.9665692260116341,3.0256165421940384,3.8940575851872565,2.9259334715455769,4.0392098857834933,3.1062052025087179,3.9110419160500167,3.0640708629973235,3.9534375242330135,3.0886387239396571,4.0029987225867805,3.0935321360640229,3.9907294101268054,2.9867086068727078,4.0446861494146287,2.8964357178099451,3.8849611100181938,2.9251401406154036,3.990500651560724,2.9129970511235297,3.9119636453874409],"text":["Anya Biswas (1%): There is a very low chance of<br />Russia attempting and succeeding in controlling<br />territory on the western bank of the Dnieper<br />river especially in December. There are a lot<br />of resources needed in order to attempt this<br />and be successful. As of now there is no public<br />information that Russia will make a move anytime<br />soon, however their actions can be unpredictable.","Anya Biswas (8%): I looked at how many times<br />in the last years UGA has canceled a full day<br />of class due to a hurricane. Due to Florida<br />taking the brunt of the hurricanes, they usually<br />turn into a tropical storm by the time they hit<br />Georgia. Furthermore, it would also impact coastal<br />Georgia more before it hits Athens. UGA delayed<br />classes for hurricane Michael in 2018, so it would<br />need to be big enough to warrant canceling a full<br />day of university classes. Due to El Nino, there<br />is increased vertical wind shear which suppresses<br />Atlantic hurricane formation. NOAA predicts a 75%<br />chance for below normal activity in the Atlanta<br />2026 hurricane season.","Bain Fulcher (15%): Ukrainian forces maintain firm<br />control of the right bank and have successfully<br />repelled Russian attempts to establish permanent<br />bridgeheads. Russian forces have remained on the<br />eastern bank since 2022 and have failed in many<br />small attempts to cross over. It is predicted that<br />Russian forces will not seize the Donetsk region<br />until 2032 at their current rate of advance.","Bain Fulcher (20%): Because it is an El Niño<br />year, the National Weather Service predicts a<br />below-normal hurricane season, which drives more<br />unfavorable conditions for hurricane formation<br />in the Atlantic basin. However, the last time<br />UGA cancelled class due to a hurricane was in<br />2024, which was partly an El Niño year, so it<br />is possible that there will be a hurricane that<br />will encourage UGA to cancel class. But UGA will<br />not cancel class unless there are extreme weather<br />conditions, so I do not think it is likely that<br />class will be cancelled because of a hurricane.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (4%): No, Russia will<br />probably not control territory west of the<br />Dnieper river by Nov. 19. The countryâs offensive<br />strategies are elsewhere, namely in the Donetsk<br />region. Also, Ukrainian defense efforts are<br />
324doing much better than expected, and for Russian<br />military groups to advance and control territory,<br />they would have to cross the river, decisively<br />defeat the Ukrainians occupying the land, and then<br />fully exert control over the territory, which is<br />unlikely. Their offensive strategies are depleted<br />and there is no information leading us to believe<br />that Russia will host such an offensive attack any<br />time soon.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (1%): No, the University<br />of Georgia will not cancel classes due to a<br />hurricane. The only time in recent history that<br />the University of Georgia cancelled classes due<br />to a tropical storm was during Hurricane Helene<br />in 2024. However, something important can be<br />noted here: even though the University of Georgia<br />canceled classes due to what they referred to as<br />âHurricaneâ Helene, the real cause of heightened<br />wind speeds and storming was actually not a<br />hurricane by the time it reached North Georgia,<br />it was a tropical storm, which is NOT a hurricane.<br />Additionally, the NOAA predicts a lower intensity<br />season for 2026. Wind patterns acknowledged in<br />class point to a substantially weakened hurricane<br />season. I believe it is extremely unlikely that a<br />hurricane will cancel classes but I guess it isnât<br />impossible.","Brian Sadenwasser (10%): According to the<br />Institute for the Study of War, there has been no<br />recent movement in the ground activity near the<br />city of Kherson. In the south, they also haven't<br />made much advancement by Russia on the city of<br />Zaporizhia. Russia still is attacking Kherson and<br />they want that city, so there is still a chance<br />they claim territory on the western bank of the<br />Dnieper.","Brian Sadenwasser (12%): The NOAA has<br />predicted that there is a 75% that this<br />will be a \"below-normal\" season. Given that<br />information as well as the fact that the<br />last hurricane UGA canceled classes for was<br />Hurricane Helene (a category 4 hurricane<br />when it made landfall), I am guessing that<br />there is a low chance that a hurricane will<br />be extreme enough and make its way far enough<br />inland for classes to be canceled. Source:<br />https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Slide1.JPG","Brianna Speizer (15%): I do not believe that<br />Russia will control territory on the western bank<br />of the Dnieper river by November 19 because the<br />river acts as a major obstacle since all major<br />crossings have been destroyed. This means that<br />there is no safe way for troops to be able to<br />cross over the river. Crossing the river would be<br />extremely costly and difficult for Russian troops.","Brianna Speizer (10%): The University of Georgia<br />has only cancelled class twice in recent years due<br />to hurricanes, once in 2024 with Hurricane Helene<br />and once in 2017 with Hurricane Irma which was a<br />delay not a cancellation. With this, the NOAA (The<br />National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration),<br />which is the United States scientific and<br />regulatory agency within the Department of<br />Commerce, stated that they predict a below normal<br />2026 Atlantic hurricane season.","Caitlyn McMullen (20%): I am slightly lowering<br />
324my probability after the class discussion,<br />but keeping my reasoning the same: I forecast<br />that it is not very probable that Russia will<br />control territory on the western bank of the<br />Dnieper river. Russia is geographically situated<br />near the river and Dnieper separates Ukrainian<br />versus Russian territory. To gain control of the<br />territory, Russia would have to cross the river<br />and and defend and maintain a position against<br />Ukrainian forces in the 10 weeks between now<br />and November 19. Currently, there is no Russian<br />ground territory in that direction and their main<br />position is near Donetsk which is over 100 miles<br />away. My probability is not lower because 10 weeks<br />is a decent amount of time, and Russia wants to<br />control Ukrainian territory, including Dnieper,<br />because of the river's position as a defensive<br />boundary and political resource. Russia is not<br />gaining quick territorial progress through the war<br />due to the aid that Ukraine is receiving from the<br />EU and the US. Russia has spent years attacking<br />positions that are protected by trenches,<br />artillery, and increasingly drone coverage.<br />Breaking through these defenses is much harder<br />than simply occupying an undefended area (and<br />Dnieper is not undefended because Ukraine has had<br />about 4 years to fortify the western bank).","Caitlyn McMullen (25%): I lowered my probability<br />
324after the class discussion because I was being<br />overly cautious last time. I think it is very<br />unlikely that UGA will cancel class because<br />hurricanes are predicted to not be as rampant this<br />year and also it takes a lot for UGA to officially<br />cancel class.","Carter Ray (10%): Defending the West Bank of the<br />Dnieper seems to be a top priority for Ukraine,<br />and they are likely to commit significant<br />resources on this behalf if Russia were to<br />attempt a major incursion. However, this event<br />is still possible as Putin and Russia in general<br />are very volatile, and circumstances can change<br />significantly in war.","Carter Ray (15%): It appears that UGA has only<br />cancelled classes twice in recent years due to<br />hurricanes, once for Hurricane Helene in 2024,<br />and once for Hurricane Irma in 2017. Due to the<br />relatively low frequency of hurricanes, as well<br />as the fact that NOAA has listed a 55% chance of<br />weaker than usual hurricane season, it seems very<br />unlikely that UGA will have to cancel classes.15","Celina Simone (15%): My probability decreased<br />after learning about past efforts and failures<br />by Russian forces to take the Dnieper region.<br />The class reaffirmed that Russian forces lack<br />the personnel, resources, and water/amphibious<br />capabilities needed to cross the wide river in<br />force and establish a lasting control on the<br />western bank. This is further aggrevated that<br />Russian would be trying to cross a river in the<br />winter, on the offensive. In past historical<br />events with similar circumstances success is often<br />on the side of the defensive. While control of<br />Donesk may be a long term Russian goal current<br />success is unlikely.","Celina Simone (5%): After class today I am still<br />firm in that a hurricane has a very low chance<br />of causing UGA to cancel class. As of now, the<br />National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<br />predicts that 2026 has a 75% chance of lower<br />activity than normal for the Atlantic Hurricane<br />Season. This is because of El Nino cooling<br />Atlantic waters making conditions difficult for a<br />hurricane to form. There is a chance of only 1-3<br />major hurricanes (Category 3+) expected to form,<br />and even lower chance (4%) that it will hit land.<br />The last time UGA had to close for a hurricane<br />warning was in September 2024 for Hurricane<br />Helene. Currently while weather officials say<br />to be prepared there been no sign of conditions<br />leading to an as destructive hurricane as Helene.","Christopher Heyl (3%): I am slightly revising<br />up my estimate for this based on our discussions<br />in class, namely the revelation that there<br />are actually 2 alternative ways Russia could<br />hypothetically invade Ukraine and take over the<br />west bank of the Dnieper. That being said, I am<br />still sticking with a very low estimate for this<br />one. I just don't see this happening.","Christopher Heyl (5%): Based on our discussions<br />in class today, alongside my own research prior,<br />I just don't see a reality where a major storm<br />develops that could threaten UGA to cancel classes<br />this year. This year is a historic \"Super\" El<br />Nino, and as a result I think the Atlantic is<br />in for a historically weak hurricane season.<br />Therefore, I have revised my score down to 5%,<br />there is always the chance some major storm could<br />develop out of nowhere, but the odds are very<br />slim.","Dean McDonald (5%): I have revised my forecast<br />from 10% to 5%. As per what I said in class,<br />the three avenues of approach (naval, Belarusian<br />border, and near Kherson) are all equally<br />implausible for both logistics and strategy for<br />the Russians. Their focus in men and materiel is<br />in the East.","Dean McDonald (15%): My previous explanation<br />stands (inland Georgia does not really see<br />hurricanes, hence the rarity of previous<br />closures). In addition, most hurricanes we see are<br />during La Nina, while we are currently in an El<br />Nino. Therefore, I am revising from 25% to 15%.","Denton Alexander (20%): The terrain since the Dam<br />explosion and downstream flooding has been very<br />tricky to navigate and fight for both parties.<br />There is not many places of grand shelter and<br />protection, as well as many small ponds occupying<br />the area. Although this was long ago and the<br />Russian army might have figured out the landscape<br />
324by now, it is still difficult to pass. Russia has<br />had control of the East bank for over a year, and<br />they continue to try to creep over. It seems that<br />Russia is more focused on assessing Ukraine's<br />overall military and keep them back from the East<br />Bank rather than fully taking over the West Bank.<br />NATO allies have also been very vocal about Russia<br />and their future invasions.","Denton Alexander (35%): I do not think the<br />University of Georgia will cancel classes<br />because of a hurricane this year. For starters,<br />Jere Morehead is very stingy when it comes<br />to cancelling classes, and in the years prior<br />there have been cancellations that could have<br />been normal class days. Also, El Nino is very<br />strong this year, and in the later months of<br />hurricane season (September-November), the pattern<br />suppresses hurricanes on the Atlantic. The NOAA's<br />outlook for this hurricane season is a 55% chance<br />of a below normal season, and a \"normal\" season<br />does not always produce a class cancelation.","Dylan Goff (12%): i think it is very unlikley that<br />russia will control any territory on the river<br />by the end of this class. Russia already does not<br />control any area west of the river, and has been<br />losing the war in recent month. NATO intervention<br />has led to ukrain consistently turning the<br />tides of the war, including attacks on russias<br />capital itself. This in addition to the natural<br />fortification rivers have, means it would be very<br />unlikley for them to push foreward with their<br />depleted reserves","Dylan Goff (10%): I decided that my intial<br />prediction, while mostly accurate, probably could<br />have been adjusted to be a bit lower. I wasnt<br />aware that we were in a super el nino year, which<br />means that probability of a hurrciane occuring<br />was even lower than I initially predicted. This<br />in addition to uga only cancelling classes once<br />in the past 5 years means that the baseline itself<br />was probably lower","Edy Thompson (10%): Russia hasnât held any western<br />bank territory since its November 2022 withdrawal.<br />Each attempt to regain a foothold, once in March<br />2024 and once in December 2024, have failed.<br />Kherson still remains under Ukrainian control<br />despite Russiaâs constant striking. I would<br />say there is about a 10% chance Russia controls<br />territory on the western bank by November 19th.","Edy Thompson (8%): I would say there is about<br />an 8% chance UGA will cancel classes for a day<br />or more due to a hurricane. UGA has only closed<br />twice in the last decade for Hurricane Irma and<br />Helene. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric<br />Administration says there is a very good chance<br />of a below normal hurricane season. Also we're<br />entering peak season and the Atlantic has zero<br />active disturbances. So, that's why I give it an<br />8% chance.","Ella Vars (10%): As the Dnieper River is such<br />a massive obstacle, it would take advanced<br />technology and much planning to cross and gain<br />this territory. There are no current indicators,<br />such as equipment buildup or changes in tactics,<br />that imply they are planning an attack. It seems<br />that they are east and southeast theaters of the<br />war.","Ella Vars (15%): UGA has cancelled class 2 times<br />in the past 10 years, making the base probability<br />
324close to 20%. However, after class discussion I<br />believe the probability is even lower because of<br />the El Nino weather trend, which makes hurricanes<br />less likely in this area of the country. We are<br />also below average in rainfall this year, making a<br />big storm seem less likely.","Eva Carnes (30%): Russia historically withdrew<br />from this territory back in 2022, but it is likely<br />that they will attempt to re-enter this territory.<br />If Russia were to invade this territory, it would<br />require them to cross the river which is acting as<br />boundary lines. Russia seems to lack the necessary<br />strength and equipment to carry out this endeavor<br />successfully.","Eva Carnes (18%): The NOAA only foresees Georgia<br />getting 0-2 major hurricanes this year. This year,<br />we have an El Niño which lessens the probability<br />of a hurricane hitting land. Looking at the<br />University of Georgia's records for closing the<br />University for an entire day; the last time UGA<br />closed for a hurricane was for Hurricane Helene in<br />2024 which was a major hurricane.","Hailey Chae (10%): After the class discu
324ssion,<br />I think it solidified my opinion that this is<br />unlikely to occur. For the same reason, Russia<br />currently controls territory on the eastern side<br />of the river, but Ukraine still controls the<br />western bank, including the city of Kherson.<br />Crossing the Dnieper and establishing a lasting<br />position would be difficult because the river<br />is a major defensive barrier. Russia's current<br />advances are also mainly focused in the Donetsk<br />region rather than toward Kherson. However, I<br />don't think the probability is 0 because war is<br />unpredictable, and Russia could launch another<br />offensive or establish a small bridgehead across<br />the river. Russia would need to make a territorial<br />breakthrough in a relatively short period.","Hailey Chae (10%): I lowered my probability<br />a little bit because I feel like it will be<br />unlikely that UGA will cancel if at all after<br />class discussion. UGA has canceled classes for<br />hurricanes before, including Hurricane Irma in<br />2017 and Hurricane Helene in 2024. Helene caused<br />dangerous road conditions in Athens, which led<br />UGA to cancel in-person classes for two days.<br />However, the 2026 hurricane season doesnât seem as<br />major and doesn't look like it will affect Athens<br />much. NOAA is predicting a âbelow-normal season.â<br />I think there is a chance, but overall I think a<br />cancellation is probably unlikely.","Hannah Hartley (15%): I am less certain that<br />Russia could control this territory by November<br />
32419 after the class discussion. After discussing<br />the resources needed, as well as the fact that<br />they would have to be controlling it on that date<br />and not just at a period before that date, it is<br />unlikely that this would happen. The geographical<br />boundaries also limit Russia's ability to take<br />over this territory, so it is unlikely.","Hannah Hartley (18%): The El Nino explanation<br />influenced my decision to decrease the probability<br />of the University canceling classes. While<br />it is still an unpredictable occurrence, the<br />below-average predictions of this hurricane season<br />are influencing me to believe that there will not<br />be a substantial hurricane to reach Athens, GA<br />this season. Also, the class cancellation of 1 in<br />5 years reflected in the NOAA predictions as an<br />active year as well, and this year is not.","Haven Priem (40%): Hearing other people talk<br />about the odds of them invading slightly swayed<br />my opinion towards yes. However it still feels<br />more unlikely that they will invade just because<br />it doesn't seem like they have the power to push<br />through and hold onto the territory.","Haven Priem (15%): I don't think this is going<br />to happen at all because it would again take a<br />lot for uga to actually cancel classing not just<br />delay. This part of georgia really doesn't get hit<br />that hard for hurricanes so it would have to be<br />a really bad hurricane for athens to be affected<br />that heavily.","Isabella Picciano (10%): In order for this to<br />be âyesâ; Russian forces would have to acquire<br />and maintain control of Ukrainian territory on<br />the Western Bank of Dnieper River. I began with<br />the outside view. Russia invaded and maintained<br />control of Western front of the Dnieper River<br />and the city of Kherson for a short period of<br />time in November 2022. However, due to the supply<br />line cutoffs, âfutileâ defenses, and the risk<br />of encirclement, Russia were forced to pull out<br />and retreat. This establishes the militaristic<br />difficulties of obtaining the Dnieper River. Now<br />considering the circumstances in 2026, we can take<br />a look at what Russia would have to do and change<br />in order to successfully obtain and maintain<br />control of the Dnieper River (for a second<br />time). First, Russian troops would have to cross<br />exposed waterbound terrain with little movement<br />or protection. This makes them particularly<br />vulnerable to Ukrainian forces that have more<br />supervision from the elevated position they would<br />be in relation to the Russians. Second, Russians<br />would have to coordinate a large-scale collective<br />attack. However, the Russians commonly conduct<br />small unit level operations. Even if the Russians<br />use small units and get to the bridgehead, they<br />would be met outnumbered by Ukrainian defense.<br />Lastly, if by whatever means they can do this,<br />they would have to ensure that they can maintain<br />control which introduces multiple other issues<br />like supply, combatting defense, rebuilding<br />infrastructure damaged from the war, getting<br />additional soldiers to the base, etc. The amount<br />of barriers inhibiting Russians from being able<br />to conduct such a mission and the short time frame<br />given to us, although significantly lowering the<br />probability, does not make it near zero. Russia<br />has repeatedly attempted to âgain a foothold\"<br />in the western region of Ukraine through 2025<br />and Putin and Russian military leaders see the<br />Dnieper River as an incredibly strategic military<br />advantage. The strength of the evidence suggesting<br />âyesâ is far less compared to the evidence<br />suggesting âno.â Thus, I predict a 10% chance of<br />this happening.","Isabella Picciano (20%): To be âyes,â UGA would<br />have to cancel regular classes for at least one<br />complete school day due to a hurricane. First,<br />I attempted to establish the prior odds. In the<br />past 10 years, there have been four hurricanes<br />that have hit Athens, Georgia in the fall<br />
324semester: Hurricane Irma (2017), Hurricane Sally<br />(2020), Hurricane Michael (2018) and Hurricane<br />Irma (2017). Of those four hurricanes, UGA<br />cancelled classes for two (Hurricane Irma and<br />Hurricane Helene). If UGA cancelled classes<br />twice in the past 10 years due to a hurricane,<br />the prior probability would be 20% or 1:4 prior<br />odds. Second, I considered current evidence.<br />NOAA forecasters predict a 75% chance for<br />below-normal hurricane activity, a 20% chance<br />of a near normal season, and a 5% chance of<br />above normal conditions. They also predict that<br />there will only be 7-13 storms and 2-6 which<br />may become hurricanes, and 0-2 severe hurricanes<br />for the entire Atlantic basin. The normal amount<br />of hurricanes predicted in the Atlantic basin<br />during hurricane season is 7. NOAA also reports<br />that there is a greater than 90% chance that the<br />developing El Nino global weather phenomenon will<br />reach âvery strongâ status. With the presence<br />of âsuperâ El Nino, hurricane activity in the<br />Atlantic region is more likely to be suppressed<br />by increasing vertical wind shear. Iâm unsure of<br />how to complete Bayeâs rule with the evidence;<br />however, its strength against a severe hurricane<br />occurring leads me to believe that the likelihood<br />of UGA cancelling class for a full school day due<br />to a hurricane is around 20%.","Jacob Nabors (7%): Russia lost this position in<br />2022 and has never really gained a stronghold<br />at getting it back since, despite repeated<br />attempts. There also is not currently any build-up<br />of Russian troops near the area. Ukraine has<br />maintained several defensive brigades around the<br />area making a Russian attack unlikely as well.<br />There currently are also diplomatic talks in<br />place, again making an attack seem unlikely.","Jacob Nabors (17%): There typically aren't huge<br />hurricanes that impact the Athens area before<br />November 19th. While UGA is known to close the<br />campus, it typically takes a lot for the decision<br />to be made and it historically has been done at<br />the latest possible time to avoid closing the<br />campus. While Covid-19 allowed for more online<br />learning, the current university administration<br />has shown that they don't really like doing this<br />and would prefer to wait it out.","Jason Eappen (2%): With the additional reasons<br />mentioned in my initial forecast, the disucssion<br />in class pretty much closed the reasoning on<br />Russia \"controlling\" the diepner river. I think<br />another reason including Russia not launching a<br />massive offensive in the late fall/early winter<br />gets really cold and strains resources even more.<br />All the \"war games\" sciernio that games out the<br />amount of land they have to take is significant.<br />With Ukraine's drone technology and defense so<br />far, just imposes a lot of barriers for Russia<br />taking the region within the next two months","Jason Eappen (15%): There is a lesser chance that<br />UGA cancels classes for a day or more because<br />of a hurricane. This year has been a \"down\" year<br />for hurricanes. So far this year there has only<br />been five named tropical storms in the Atlantic<br />Ocean so far this year. *This does not count the<br />Pacifc Ocean hurricane that hit Hawaii. Because<br />of the relative weaker hurricane season this year,<br />the chance that a hurricane will impact UGA is<br />low. There are some reports that El Nino has been<br />gaining strength over the past few weeks which<br />increases the likelihood of a hurricane hitting.<br />But then you also have to estimate the odds of<br />a hurricane hitting Georgia and Athens. There<br />might be a hurricane that forms from the Gulf<br />of Mexico but only hit Florida or the Carolinas.<br />So when adding the probabilities of what has to<br />occur in order for a hurricane to: form, transform<br />into a hurricane from a tropical storm, have a<br />path that hits Georgia, no decrease in strength<br />substantially when makes landfall, and then have a<br />path that hit Athens. The odds remain rather low.","Jordan Sanderson (7%): Currently, there is no<br />miltia activity from Russia in Kherson. A land<br />invasion would also be very taxing on their<br />resources, and the brutal winter season in<br />the area would make it very unlikely they will<br />consider advancing. There has been occupation in<br />other cities near the Russia and Ukraine border,<br />but they have mostly been relying on drones rather<br />than using soldiers. I think the stagnation will<br />ensue, and with how vast the river is even if they<br />
324decided to start an invasion they likely would not<br />make it or even maintain the advancements.","Jordan Sanderson (13%): The NOAA suggests that<br />there will be less than 3 hurricanes for this time<br />period. Given we are currently in the peak period<br />for hurricanes and have not seen any significant<br />indicators, it is unlikely we will even have a<br />hurricane that will require UGA to cancel class.","Joshua Mui (5%): Based on research from ISW and<br />other news sources, the lines look like they've<br />been deadlocked for quite a while since at least<br />2022. With most of the war not focused around<br />the Dnipiro, I'm not convinced that the Russians<br />would try to gain territory in an area that would<br />require more resources than they can obviously<br />currently manage. Also considering the level of<br />infrastructure damage, past failed campaigns,<br />and the time of year, I have serious doubt that a<br />major offensive could a) start and b) hold until<br />November","Joshua Mui (5%): NOAA has predicted a weaker than<br />normal hurricane season for this year, and with<br />hurricane season lasting until the end of November<br />and we've been pretty clear so far, I feel it is<br />unlikely that a hurricane will hit Athens. Even if<br />one does, the likelihood that it is severe enough<br />to cancel classes may be low, referencing how last<br />year we only received a day off due to the first<br />ice storm, and the following week was relegated<br />to a delayed start, even though there was more<br />snow on the ground. Notably, we did not receive<br />a day off for some admittedly not hurricane, but<br />hurricane-adjacent rain and wind, instead having<br />to defer to normal class schedule. I also want to<br />consider that Athens geographically is very safe<br />from hurricanes being so inland, and historically<br />has not faced severe hurricane damage in the past.","Julia Krehbiel (15%): I am lowering my probability<br />just slightly because I feel like with everything<br />the students in class spoke about and the<br />likelihood that a stalemate will just continue<br />due to the lack of movement and momentum anyone<br />has in the war, I think that it would be highly<br />unlikely that they could take over the amount of<br />land needed in order to be considered controlling<br />the western bank.","Julia Krehbiel (20%): I am lowering my prediction,<br />but only slightly. I still agree with all that<br />was discussed today in class and also the emphasis<br />that was put on the El Niño effect, which will<br />decrease hurricane activity in the Atlantic this<br />summer. I think that this, combined with the<br />lack of storms we have had in the South thus far,<br />caused me to lower my probability slightly. The<br />only thing that is causing me to still leave a<br />chance is because I do feel that if there were<br />to be a hurricane or tropical storm affecting<br />this area, UGA would take it seriously and cancel<br />school so they do not receive backlash.","Kiefer Adams (10%): I am maintaining my forecast<br />of a 10% chance that Russia will control territory<br />on the western bank of the Dnieper river. I<br />still believe this is very unlikely because of<br />how difficult the river has been to cross for<br />Russia throughout the war. Additionally, offensive<br />movement usually does not occur in the fall in<br />Russia because of the weather, so it's unlikely<br />this would happen, if possible, before the spring<br />time.","Kiefer Adams (10%): I am maintaining my forecast<br />at 10% for UGA cancelling classes for a hurricane.<br />I was reminded in class that during my freshman<br />year UGA refused to cancel classes for extreme<br />rain, so the threshold for cancelling class based<br />on rain is very high. Additionally, the timeline<br />for hurricane season is quickly passing, and<br />there don't seem to be any hurricanes imminently<br />threatening coastal areas around Georgia.","Krish Chinta (3%): Russia controlling territory<br />on the western bank of the Dnieper by November<br />19 seems to be highly unlikely. The Dnieper<br />is a major geographic and logistical obstacle,<br />and Russia currently lacks the strategic focus<br />on conducting a major crossing in the southern<br />theater. Establishing territorial control would<br />require overcoming significant Ukrainian defenses<br />and maintaining an extremely vulnerable logistical<br />supply line across the river. There is a small<br />probability of an unexpected military breakthrough<br />or other extreme development, but this outcome<br />seems highly improbable.","Krish Chinta (8%): Historically, it takes a<br />massive, fast-moving hurricane like Helene in 2024<br />or Irma in 2017 to force UGA to cancel classes.<br />Over the last 10 years, those two incidents form<br />the historical baseline for a closure in a fall<br />semester at 20%. We are currently past the first<br />week of September 2026, and the National Oceanic<br />and Atmospheric Administration gave the 2026<br />Atlantic hurricane season a 75% chance of being<br />\"below normal\" due to atmospheric conditions.<br />Given the peak of hurricane season is passing in<br />a quiet, below average year, the inland buffer of<br />Athens, and the historical unwillingness for UGA<br />to outright cancel classes for a day, it is highly<br />unlikely. The probability should be below the<br />historical baseline at roughly 8%.","Leah Mojica (20%): I am going to keep my initial<br />prediction of 20% because I think that it is not<br />very likely to happen by November 19th. Someone<br />did give an explanation as to how it could happen,<br />but I still want to stick with my instincts that<br />this event is not highly likely to occur.","Leah Mojica (15%): I believe that there is a<br />very low chance that UGA will close classes for<br />a day or more due to a hurricane. After today's<br />discussion, I am lowering my original prediction<br />from 30% to 15%. I think that this is a highly<br />unlikely event given the current forecast<br />predictions for the 2026 hurricane season.<br />Furthermore, due to our location and being so<br />far away from the coast, I think it would be a<br />relatively rare event for a hurricane to remain<br />that strong so far off the coast. Plus, as someone<br />mentioned today, Hurricane Helene took place<br />during a season that was predicted to be a very<br />extreme hurricane season, while this season is<br />predicted to be very quiet.","Matthew Fern (12%): While I was initially at<br />20%, having spoken with the class and heard<br />new perspectives, I feel comfortable dropping<br />my prediction down quite a bit. It seems like<br />everyone agrees that, given the forces at play in<br />the war, for one reason or another, Russia will<br />not be able to control territory on the western<br />bank of the Dnieper River. From the fact they have<br />not controlled in since 2022 to the challenges of<br />winter to the challenges an aquatic crossing, I do<br />not feel confident it will happen.","Matthew Fern (10%): I believe that my initial<br />forecast of 10% is still the most reasonable.<br />While it is always possible that school will<br />be canceled, as weather is never a complete<br />certainty, I just do not believe that the forces<br />as play here are strong enough to push it any<br />further than 10%. As already stated, we are in an<br />el nino, UGA hardly cancels classes, and UGA is<br />far inland.","Megan Tate (8%): I think there is an 8% chance<br />that Russia will control territory on the western<br />bank of the Dnieper river by November 19. My<br />forecast is low because Russia does not currently<br />control any territory on the western bank, and<br />Putinâs biggest priority right now is capturing<br />the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.<br />Plus, the timeframe is only 10 weeks, which is<br />not enough time to cross a major river and then<br />establish new territory. I still want to leave<br />room for the unpredictability of war, which is why<br />I made my forecast 8%.","Megan Tate (15%): I lowered my forecast down<br />to 15% because after thinking about it more<br />and listening to the discussion in class today,<br />I think there is a pretty low chance that UGA<br />will cancel classes for a day or more due to a<br />hurricane. NOAAâs National Weather Service has<br />already predicted a below-normal season, and even<br />if there is a hurricane, I think there is still<br />a low chance UGA will cancel classes. Weather<br />is very unpredictable, so I want to keep my<br />prediction reasonable but still take into account<br />the evidence, which is why I chose 15%.","Mera Moucharrafie (15%): While Russia previously<br />controlled part of the western bank of the Dnieper<br />river early in the 2022 invasion, which was<br />Kherson, Russia ultimately ended up withdrawing<br />from the Dnieper. More recently, Russian officials<br />have been more focused on eastern Ukraine<br />(Donetsk), meaning that they probably will not<br />shift their entire focus on controlling the<br />territory of the western bank.","Mera Moucharrafie (20%): In an article published<br />by UGA Today over this past summer, it was<br />reported that the official hurricane season began<br />on June 1st and ends on November 30th, with the<br />peak day for hurricane season being September<br />10th. Within the last 5 years from 2021-2025, UGA<br />has not had a class cancellation, except for in<br />the case of Hurricane Helene in 2024, where UGA<br />had only cancelled classes for 2 days (September<br />26-27). We are nearing the middle of September<br />and have hardly received any rainfall thus far,<br />especially due to El Nino and its high wind<br />shear that makes hurricanes harder to form from<br />the Atlantic. It was only in extreme cases, like<br />Hurricane Helene in 2024, where UGA decided to<br />cancel classes.","Michelle Villanueva (10%): After listening to<br />the arguments brought up in class, I lowered<br />my prediction from 20% to 10%. One argument<br />that stood out to me was how difficult it<br />would actually be for Russia to move troops and<br />equipment across the river. Russia destroyed major<br />bridges during its 2022 retreat, parts of the<br />river area have become difficult marshland, and<br />Ukraineâs drones would make building temporary<br />crossings extremely risky. I also learned that<br />the Dnieper has been one of the more stable fronts<br />of the war for the past few years, and there<br />is currently no strong evidence that Russia is<br />preparing a major offensive there. Russiaâs forces<br />are also focused more heavily on other parts<br />of Ukraine, and someone pointed out that recent<br />Russian territorial gains have been relatively<br />slow. Because Russia would have to cross a heavily<br />defended river, establish a foothold, and still<br />be holding that territory by Nov. 19, I lowered my<br />prediction","Michelle Villanueva (15%): After hearing the<br />arguments brought up in class, I lowered my<br />prediction from 25% to 15% that UGA will cancel<br />classes for at least one full day because of a<br />hurricane. One point that stood out to me was<br />that over the past 5 years, UGA has only canceled<br />a full day of classes because of a hurricane<br />once, which was during Hurricane Helene in 2024.<br />Hurricane Michael also brought bad weather to<br />Athens in 2018, but UGA only delayed opening<br />rather than canceling a full day. I also became<br />less confident after hearing more about this<br />year's hurricane conditions. Someone pointed<br />out that the 2026 season, according to NOAA,<br />is expected to be below normal and that El Niño<br />conditions create stronger wind, which can make it<br />harder for hurricanes to develop and strengthen.<br />On top of that, even if a hurricane does form,<br />it would have to follow the right path through<br />Georgia and get to Athens with enough strength to<br />cancel class which seems unlikely","Parker Buckroyd (15%): According to Associated<br />Press, the frontline near where the territory is<br />located remains \"largely deadlocked\", meaning no<br />Russian territorial expansion will happen in that<br />area as of now. Additionally, the increase of<br />drone warfare casualties and past Russian attempts<br />at sending troops over the river turning over<br />costly results leads me to forecast that there is<br />a 15% chance that Russia will control territory on<br />the western bank of the Dnieper river by November<br />19.","Parker Buckroyd (25%): UGA appears to cancel<br />school at a heightened rate due to the amount of<br />
324staff that commutes to campus and the ability for<br />the campus to adequately drain high volumes of<br />water/manage foliage. AccuWeather is forecasting<br />4 to 7 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. But<br />with that being said, The National Weather Service<br />(NWS) and local Athens meteorologists are tracking<br />these at below-average activity levels, largely<br />suppressed by a building \"super\" El Niño in the<br />Pacific, and below-normal precipitation. Because<br />of this, I forecast there is a 25% chance that the<br />University of Georgia will cancel classes for a<br />day or more due to a hurricane.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (95%): While mainstream<br />media coverage often generalizes that Russia<br />completely lost the western bank when they<br />retreated from Kherson city back in late 2022,<br />they never actually left the entire western<br />side of the wider river basin. Specifically,<br />Russian forces have held the Kinburn Spit, a<br />long peninsula that sits right on the western<br />side of the Dnieper-Bug delta. Even though recent<br />drone blockades, and supply line disruptions have<br />heavily pressured Russian positions there, keeping<br />a strict 100% certainty on military control in<br />an active combat zone is risky given how fluid<br />the front lines on the peninsula remain. Still,<br />barring a sudden and total collapse or complete<br />withdrawal before November, they functionally<br />retain a footprint in that specific western<br />geographic pocket.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (10%): After everyone's<br />explanations regarding the hurricanes, and the<br />reports from the NOAA, I do think it is highly<br />unlikely UGA will cancel classes for a day or<br />two due to a hurricane. Since it is September and<br />there have been no hurricanes reported as of now,<br />I do think that it is highly unlikely that UGA<br />will cancel.","Sarah Gregory (12%): I believe that is unlikely<br />that Russia will control territory on the western<br />bank of the Dnieper River by November 19, 2026.<br />There has been many failed attempts by small<br />Russian groups to cross the river. Recently, the<br />frontline has been at a slow pace so a sudden move<br />by Russia is unlikely.","Sarah Gregory (12%): I lowered my probability<br />significantly due to evidence that it is very<br />unlikely that a hurricane will pass through<br />Athens that is significant enough for UGA to<br />cancel classes. Many hurricanes occur during La<br />Niña rather than El Niño, and we are currently<br />experiencing a very strong El Niño. Additionally,<br />peak hurricane season is in September, and there<br />is nothing significant predicted as of now.","Slate Jones (10%): While Russia controls territory<br />right along the Dnieper river's edge, it would<br />be a very poor strategic decision to attempt to<br />control it due to the difficulty of transporting<br />supplies over it. Russia previously controlled<br />territory west of the river, but abandoned it due<br />to the difficulty of getting supplies to it.","Slate Jones (15%): NOAA stated that it is a 75%<br />chance that this hurricane season will be a below<br />average intensity in the Atlantic region. There<br />have only been 2 tropical storms to form within<br />the Atlantic this year, and neither have become<br />strong enough to be considered hurricanes.","Will Steiner (20%): At the rate the current war<br />has progressed, there's a slim chance that much<br />will have changed by November. Putin's tactic has<br />stalled out and the Ukrainians and Russians are<br />essentially stuck in a stalemate, with Russian<br />power slowly growing over the region. While I<br />think they will likely control it somewhat soon, I<br />do not think that they will control it uncontested<br />by November 19. If the question includes<br />controlling it temporarily or contestably, I<br />believe there is a higher chance, leaving me at<br />about a 20 percent prediction.","Will Steiner (3%): After class discu
324ssion, I think<br />there's even less of a possibility. There's barely<br />any evidence that a hurricane will form any time<br />soon or at all this season, much less that it<br />will hit Georgia at precisely the right strength<br />and time for classes to be canceled. It's not<br />impossible, but it requires so many hoops to be<br />jumped through that I feel confident setting my<br />chances at about 3 percent.","Ziyada Rakhimova (12%): Same as my previous<br />response, Russia simply hasn't made the moves it<br />was proposed to make as effectively as it said<br />it would to be on track to potentially control<br />territory on the western bank of the Dnieper<br />river by November 19, if at all. According to the<br />ISW website, Putin is already projecting a new<br />deadline many years from now in 2032 for this.","Ziyada Rakhimova (15%): After some class<br />discussion, I realized I misread the question<br />and tipped the bell curve on this question.<br />UGA has had major hurricanes and the subsequent<br />class shutdowns, but it just isn't as much of a<br />percentage to be able to tell if UGA really will<br />shut down the school if a hurricane were to come<br />through unless there was a city-wide emergency<br />notification to do so."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Student,2)","legendgroup":"(Student,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.5,0.5],"y":[0.40000000000000002,4.5999999999999996],"text":"","type":"scatter","mode":"lines","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,0.3)","dash":"dash"},"hoveron":"points","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":23.305936073059364,"r":7.3059360730593621,"b":37.260273972602747,"l":157.07762557077629},"paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.611872146118724},"xaxis":{"domain":[0,1],"automargin":true,"type":"linear","autorange":false,"range":[-0.050000000000000003,1.05],"tickmode":"array","ticktext":["0%","25%","50%","75%","100%"],"tickvals":[0,0.25,0.5,0.75,1],"categoryorder":"array","categoryarray":["0%","25%","50%","75%","100%"],"nticks":null,"ticks":"","tickcolor":null,"ticklen":3.6529680365296811,"tickwidth":0,"showticklabels":true,"tickfont":{"color":"rgba(77,77,77,1)","family":"","size":11.68949771689498},"tickangle":-0,"showline":false,"linecolor":null,"linewidth":0,"showgrid":true,"gridcolor":"rgba(235,235,235,1)","gridwidth":0.66417600664176002,"zeroline":false,"anchor":"y","title":{"text":"Probability","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.611872146118724}},"hoverformat":".2f"},"yaxis":{"domain":[0,1],"automargin":true,"type":"linear","autorange":false,"range":[0.40000000000000002,4.5999999999999996],"tickmode":"array","ticktext":["Will any single streaming<br />series win five or more<br />major awards at the Emmy<br />Awards?","Will Matthew Rhys<br />win both of his Emmy<br />categories?","Will Russia control<br />territory on the western<br />bank of the Dnieper river<br />by November 19?","Will the University of<br />Georgia cancel classes<br />for a day or more due to<br />a hurricane?"],"tickvals":[1,2,3,4],"categoryorder":"array","categoryarray":["Will any single streaming<br />series win five or more<br />major awards at the Emmy<br />Awards?","Will Matthew Rhys<br />win both of his Emmy<br />categories?","Will Russia control<br />territory on the western<br />bank of the Dnieper river<br />by November 19?","Will the University of<br />Georgia cancel classes<br />for a day or more due to<br />a hurricane?"],"nticks":null,"ticks":"","tickcolor":null,"ticklen":3.6529680365296811,"tickwidth":0,"showticklabels":true,"tickfont":{"color":"rgba(77,77,77,1)","family":"","size":11.68949771689498},"tickangle":-0,"showline":false,"linecolor":null,"linewidth":0,"showgrid":true,"gridcolor":"rgba(235,235,235,1)","gridwidth":0.66417600664176002,"zeroline":false,"anchor":"x","title":{"text":"","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.611872146118724}},"hoverformat":".2f"},"shapes":[],"showlegend":false,"legend":{"bgcolor":null,"bordercolor":null,"borderwidth":0,"font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":11.68949771689498}},"hovermode":"closest","barmode":"relative"},"config":{"doubleClick":"reset","modeBarButtonsToAdd":["hoverclosest","hovercompare"],"showSendToCloud":false,"displayModeBar":false},"source":"A","attrs":{"295823146235":{"x":{},"y":{},"colour":{},"fill":{},"shape":{},"text":{},"type":"scatter"},"295833e44496":{"xintercept":{}}},"cur_data":"295823146235","visdat":{"295823146235":["function (y) ","x"],"295833e44496":["function (y) ","x"]},"highlight":{"on":"plotly_click","persistent":false,"dynamic":false,"selectize":false,"opacityDim":0.20000000000000001,"selected":{"opacity":1},"debounce":0},"shinyEvents":["plotly_hover","plotly_click","plotly_selected","plotly_relayout","plotly_brushed","plotly_brushing","plotly_clickannotation","plotly_doubleclick","plotly_deselect","plotly_afterplot","plotly_sunburstclick"],"base_url":"https://plot.ly"},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>
324 325</div> 326</div> 327</section> 328<section id="week-4-915" class="level2"> 329<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="week-4-915">Week 4 (9/15)</h2> 330<div class="cell"> 331<div class="cell-output-display"> 332<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-d997eec275e0f0d58be0" style="width:100%;height:464px;"></div>
333<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-d997eec275e0f0d58be0">{"x":{"data":[{"x":[0.22,0.40000000000000002,0.20000000000000001,0.059999999999999998],"y":[1.9046235525421797,2.8977326396852732,3.9856409377604725,1.0162267351150513],"text":["Crowd (22%)","Crowd (40%)","Crowd (20%)","Crowd (6%)"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Crowd,2)","legendgroup":"(Crowd,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.27000000000000002,0.69999999999999996,0.059999999999999998,0.029999999999999999],"y":[1.8991190921328962,3.0734971373900772,4.1082361336238682,0.94451778886839743],"text":["Joe Ornstein (27%): Browsing Ben & Jerry's press<br />releases from the past ten years, it seems like<br />there's an average of four new flavors released<br />per year (min 1, max 6). To date this year, we've<br />seen three new flavors. So, it would seem like<br />another is due before the end of the year. *But*<br />there's some seasonality to the releases, as noted<br />in class. Lots of new flavors at the beginning<br />of the year, in preparation for summer, and way<br />fewer September-November. I count 3/9 years in the<br />data where we've had a release in our time window.<br />But I'm going slightly lower than that base rate,<br />since they've already released their \"political\"<br />flavor (Razz Up!) and our Fine Print requires that<br />it be available in Athens.","Joe Ornstein (70%): I really went back and forth<br />on this one. Might have been the toughest call of<br />the semester so far. The Andy Richter Precedent<br />from Season 34 suggests that loveable late night<br />sidekicks can go all the way to Week 9 even if<br />they're continually scoring at the bottom of the<br />distribution. But that's n=1, so I'm trying not to<br />over-anchor on it. Pure Outside View says there's<br />a ~70% chance he's still there Week 5. And if his<br />first set of scores wasn't historically abysmal,<br />I'd adjust upwards from there. Having watched the<br />video, my read is that he'll be putting up the<br />sort of performances that get him enough fan votes<br />to overcome poor judge scores for the next few<br />weeks. I won't adjust from the base rate in either<br />direction.","Joe Ornstein (6%): By all indicators, this seems<br />like a long-shot. (Not as unlikely as $3 gas at<br />the Golden Pantry, but still pretty unlikely.) A<br />typical American couple that's been dating for a<br />year has, maybe, a 50% chance of getting engaged<br />in year 2? That's probably a high estimate,<br />particularly for previously-married couples, but<br />let's run with it. That gives us something like<br />a 7% chance from the Outside View that they'd be<br />engaged in the next two months. Everything else<br />I know about Perry and Trudeau is just tinkering<br />around with that base rate. He's not officially<br />divorced yet (adjust down). Her birthday is in<br />
333October (adjust up, but not nearly as much). In<br />the end, I can't justify going higher than 6%.","Joe Ornstein (3%): Gas prices are historically<br />volatile, but not *that* volatile. This would<br />require a 25% drop over the next two months, and<br />the only times in the past 50 years when we've<br />seen price declines of that magnitude are in the<br />midst of huge national demand shocks (September<br />11, the 2008 recession, COVID). We talked a lot<br />in class about why it's unlikely that supply-side<br />factors will ease any time soon. But could we see<br />a severe recession in the next two months? This is<br />what keeps me from putting the probability at 0%."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","legendgroup":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.20000000000000001,0.56999999999999995,0.14999999999999999,0.029999999999999999,0.25,0.29999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.11,0.51000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.02,0.40000000000000002,0.40000000000000002,0.10000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.20000000000000001,0.55000000000000004,0.089999999999999997,0.050000000000000003,0.52000000000000002,0.29999999999999999,0.34999999999999998,0.10000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.40000000000000002,0.29999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.25,0.55000000000000004,0.25,0.10000000000000001,0.080000000000000002,0.59999999999999998,0.10000000000000001,0.050000000000000003,0.20000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.25,0.10000000000000001,0.20000000000000001,0.59999999999999998,0.20000000000000001,0.13,0.35999999999999999,0.33000000000000002,0.37,0.029999999999999999,0.34999999999999998,0.59999999999999998,0.10000000000000001,0.050000000000000003,0.29999999999999999,0.55000000000000004,0.25,0.050000000000000003,0.20000000000000001,0.29999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.050000000000000003,0.40000000000000002,0.34999999999999998,0.19,0.23000000000000001,0.40000000000000002,0.55000000000000004,0.20000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.20000000000000001,0.29999999999999999,0.25,0.10000000000000001,0.29999999999999999,0.40000000000000002,0.20000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.82999999999999996,0.73999999999999999,0.11,0.17999999999999999,0.029999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.01,0.01,0.62,0.59999999999999998,0.29999999999999999,0.17000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.40000000000000002,0.29999999999999999,0.01,0.20000000000000001,0.45000000000000001,0.20000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.40000000000000002,0.40000000000000002,0.050000000000000003,0.050000000000000003,0.19,0.67000000000000004,0.089999999999999997,0.040000000000000001,0.050000000000000003,0.5,0.10000000000000001,0,0.40000000000000002,0.34999999999999998,0.25,0.050000000000000003,0.59999999999999998,0.34999999999999998,0.25,0.14999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.5,0.20000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.55000000000000004,0.10000000000000001,0.050000000000000003,0.20000000000000001,0.37,0.14999999999999999,0.050000000000000003,0.5,0.40000000000000002,0.34999999999999998,0.080000000000000002,0.20000000000000001,0.45000000000000001,0.20000000000000001,0.050000000000000003,0.29999999999999999,0.25,0.25,0,0.14999999999999999,0.40000000000000002,0.080000000000000002,0.070000000000000007,0.20000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.34999999999999998,0.10000000000000001],"y":[2.0597609765082598,2.8867053522169588,4.1097770956158639,0.9011377143673599,1.9412429852224886,2.8910094013810159,4.0393555151484906,1.0798518960550427,2.1074359300360084,2.8862544355541466,4.0384046046063302,1.0553794291615486,1.8956704783812166,3.0744591985456644,3.9451982348412273,1.0108611646853387,2.097743622586131,2.9670162796787918,3.9370661407150327,0.98031150965020064,1.9004210408031941,2.9657310940325261,4.0621646249294283,0.94126978803426031,2.109501028470695,2.977820131983608,3.9232848271355034,0.91784543074667457,2.1128002531267702,2.9161947779729962,3.9236281448043884,1.1086446266248822,1.93082830183208,3.1026990716345608,4.0387336024641991,1.0738720983080565,1.8888685936294496,3.1011776932328941,4.100
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This is not the biggest time for<br />ice cream, so they are unlikely to drop new ones<br />right now. There are several fall themed ones that<br />already exist and were dropped earlier. The past<br />years seem to already have about the same amount<br />of flavors and there are limited time flavors not<br />always available.","Anya Biswas (57%): I think everyone loves him and<br />I am rooting for him. He got a very low score,<br />but he won from popularity. People from the past<br />have made it to the 4th round even though they had<br />very low scores in the beginning. Whitney being<br />pregnant might complicate things as well.","Anya Biswas (15%): They both waited over 16 months<br />for when they were first with their partners.<br />Justin Trudeau is not divorced yet. They are both<br />coming out of long term relationships. There is no<br />recent public information, but there was talk of<br />engagement rings online.","Anya Biswas (3%): The gas prices have not been<br />below $3 this year. It is influenced by current<br />events and there is no indication of changes in<br />the political situation regarding gas prices.<br />However, even if there are changes there is only a<br />month to be able to decrease it by a whole dollar.<br />There is possibility of political pressure to<br />lower gas prices especially around the mid terms.<br />It could lower depending on several decisions, but<br />lowering it by that margin is very unlikely.","Bain Fulcher (25%): Ben & Jerry's typically<br />promotes a new flavor for about a month<br />before releasing it, and they haven't done any<br />advertising for a new flavor recently. They also<br />recently released a new flavor, and they typically<br />schedule major project rollouts in the winter,<br />spring, and mid-summer rather than late fall.<br />However, they have been very active and have<br />been releasing more flavors than usual, so it is<br />possible they will release a new flavor before<br />November 19th.","Bain Fulcher (30%): He received the lowest<br />score during the first week, getting a score of<br />10 out of 30. He is a fan favorite, which will<br />help him stay at least one more round, but it<br />is very unlikely that he will make it to week 5.<br />Contestants who make it to week five generally<br />receive scores at least between 21-25, so he would<br />have to improve vastly before he would reach that<br />level. But, he has a very strong fan base that<br />might carry him until at least the fifth round, as<br />we saw happen last season.","Bain Fulcher (20%): They have only been dating<br />for a little over a year, so getting engaged<br />within the next two months would be pretty fast.<br />Both of them are separated/divorced from their<br />previous long-term partners, and they also have<br />children that they are co-parenting with their<br />exes. Trudeau is still technically married to his<br />ex-wife, but they are separated. They seem very<br />happy together, so it is possible they could be<br />engaged, but not very likely.","Bain Fulcher (10%): The current average price<br />for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the<br />Athens metro area sits at $3.87-$3.99. Golden<br />Pantry/ Shell locations tend to sell high-grade<br />fuel, causing their prices to be higher than the<br />local average. It is very unlikely that gas prices<br />at this location will decrease by nearly a dollar<br />in the next two months. Even if oil prices drop<br />within the next few weeks, it would take around<br />3-6 weeks for that price reduction to show up at<br />the pumps, so any changes that might reduce gas<br />prices would not have immediate effects and might<br />not change before November 19.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (11%): Ben & Jerryâs might<br />release a new flavor by November 19th, but it is<br />slightly less likely than it is likely. Razz Up,<br />a new flavor, released on August 6th, 2026. Before<br />that, the newest flavor was Honey Graham Latte,<br />which was released on March 23, 2026. This is a<br />gap of about 5 months between new flavor releases.<br />The gap between August and November is barely 3<br />months, making it pretty unlikely that they will<br />release a new flavor. There also seems to be no<br />pattern regarding annual holiday flavors around<br />this time of year, so that also makes it less<br />likely.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (51%): Guillermo might make<br />it to the fifth week of Dancing with the Stars.<br />His score was the lowest out of every teamâs<br />on the first week, an abysmal 10/30. Although<br />
333he survived the first round of cuts, he's at<br />the bottom of next weekâs ranking, skill-wise.<br />However, the audience seems to love Guillermo,<br />which might be a reason to keep him on the show.<br />There are 15 couples left, which does give him<br />some leeway in terms of timing, but his first<br />performance being bad makes me lean slightly<br />towards no. After listening to the class, it seems<br />that the love for Guillermo definitely shines<br />through his lack of skill.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (35%): Justin Trudeau and<br />Katy Perry have been dating for a bit over a<br />year at this point. Their relationship has become<br />increasingly public, and Perry has even described<br />Trudeau as the love of her life. Unnamed sources<br />have even said that sheâs discussed what kind<br />of engagement ring she would like. However, we<br />literally know nothing about their relationship<br />other than what is in the press. For that reason,<br />I am almost completely uncertain of the outcome<br />of this prediction. Both also live in different<br />places, Perry recently got out of an almost<br />decade-long relationship, and have their own<br />lives. Justin Trudeau is also still married to his<br />estranged wife, and has been for the past three<br />years.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (2%): It is pretty unlikely<br />that a gallon of regular gas will cost less than<br />$3 at Golden Pantry, especially with the ongoing<br />conflict with Iran. The national average is<br />currently $4.27, which makes the situation even<br />worse. With disruptions as a result of conflict<br />in the Middle East, it is likely that prices will<br />either continue to rise or remain at their current<br />level. Last year, the average gas price in Georgia<br />specifically dropped only $.20, from $3.10 to<br />$2.90. Considering the current disruptions to the<br />energy industry, as well as conflict in the MENA<br />region, it seems pretty unlikely that a drop below<br />$3 could happen before our set time period.","Brian Sadenwasser (40%): Ben and Jerry's released<br />a new flavor in the September to November date<br />range in 2024 (called Northern Attitude). This<br />is evidence that it is possible a new flavor will<br />be released but I do not think that it is likely<br />because it seems like Ben and Jerry's releases<br />their winter flavors later in the year. Their<br />winter flavors seem to come out in Decemeber. It<br />is for this reason that I think it is unlikely but<br />
333still possible. Class discussion reinforced my 40%<br />prediction.","Brian Sadenwasser (40%): From my research, it<br />seems like he scored very low previously and<br />was almost already cut from the show. He got<br />a 10/30 on the premier, which seems low to me.<br />I'm assuming that because he did not do well<br />in earlier rounds that he will continue to<br />underperform and could be cut pretty soon. In<br />class, we talked about how important fan voting<br />is and it seems like his supporters could keep him<br />on the show for a while, so I adjusted up. Source:<br />https://uk.news.yahoo.com/guillermo-rodriguez-gets-brutal-10-154502581.html","Brian Sadenwasser (10%): Although they have been<br />dating for over a year now, I still think there<br />is a low chance they will be engaged by Nov 19.<br />Through my research (scrolling social media and<br />finding their relationship timeline), I have found<br />no real evidence that an engagement is coming<br />other than the previously mentioned length of<br />their relationship. Because they have been dating<br />for an extended period of time, I think it is<br />possible but not probable. I adjusted downwards<br />based the betting market odds we talked about in<br />class","Brian Sadenwasser (10%): I think the only way that<br />gas will cost less than $3 a gallon is if the war<br />in Iran ends by about Nov 1 and oil is allowed<br />to freely move through the Strait of Hormuz. This<br />does not appear to be the case. Iran is still<br />controlling the strait and even attacking ships<br />that have tried to travel through. Predicting the<br />end of the war is particularly difficult because<br />it is very hard to predict Trump. My best guess<br />is that there is a 15% the war ends soon and that<br />there is a deal in place to reopen the strait.<br />Lowered by 5% based on supply chain issues talked<br />about in class.","Brianna Speizer (20%): I think there is a low<br />chance that Ben and Jerry's will release a new<br />flavor by November 19th because they have not<br />posted anything related to a new fall flavor, and<br />they just recently brought back Pumpkin Cheesecake<br />in early August. They also seem to be heavily<br />focused on promoting their flavor Razz Up which<br />was created to encourage people to vote in the<br />upcoming elections.","Brianna Speizer (55%): Action Network gives him<br />24:1 or 4% odds of winning, which puts him about<br />in the middle of the group giving him a good<br />chance of making it to the fifth week. He is also<br />widely known and loved which gives him a good<br />chance to do well in fan voting which is a large<br />part of the scoring and factor of who makes it to<br />the next round.","Brianna Speizer (9%): Polymarket has the odds of<br />Justin Trudeau and Katy Perry being engaged by<br />December 31, 2026 at 10%. This also might look<br />even lower if we bring the date even closer.<br />Each just ended a long relationship recently;<br />Trudeau ended an 18 year long relationship in 2023<br />and Perry ended a 9 year long relationship last<br />summer. They also live quite far from each other<br />with Perry living in California and Trudeau living<br />in Canada. These signify that they may wait a bit<br />longer to get engaged.","Brianna Speizer (5%): The price of gas in Georgia<br />has not been below $3/gallon since 2023; the<br />current conflict in Iran and the blockages of the<br />Strait of Hormuz continue to increase the price of<br />gas. So far, there have not been many sure signs<br />that a negotiation is close meaning that the oil<br />price will likely stay up. In the last few days,<br />President Trump made a statement that the war<br />would be over right after the midterms, but it<br />does not appear likely that Iran agrees with this.<br />This makes it quite low odds that a gallon of gas<br />will cost less than $3 by November 19th.","Caitlyn McMullen (52%): I was surprised in class<br />that many of my peers disagreed with my initial<br />prediction (that was pretty high) that B & J would<br />create a new flavor. I think I was confident that<br />they would create some sort of fall flavor, but<br />after hearing my classmates discuss the expense<br />of creating a new flavor, especially in the winter<br />months which are the slow season for ice cream,<br />I am going to change my prediction. I am still<br />hopeful they will, but I think I underestimated<br />the cost and did not think that the fact they do<br />not normally come out with winter flavors as a<br />complete deterrence.","Caitlyn McMullen (30%): Ok so I am surprisingly<br />changing my prediction from a 10 to a 30 after<br />
333the class discussion. I still think it is more<br />likely than not that he will be eliminated before<br />the 5th week. Mostly because of his age, dancing<br />abilities, and Witney's pregnancy (which she<br />will apparently be in the 3rd trimester by the<br />5th week). However, Guillermo's large fan base<br />as well as past history indicates that it is<br />possible that he makes it to the 5th week. The<br />biggest factor that made me change my score was<br />the possibility of a no-elimination week. If there<br />are eliminations every week leading up to the 5th<br />week, then I think Guillermo will go home. But,<br />if there is a week where they do not eliminate any<br />contestants, then I think it is much more likely<br />that he will make it to the 5th week. I do think<br />that the no-elimination week could be the 5th week<br />though, which is usually dedication night (and I<br />am not confident he will make it that far). With<br />all of this being said, I still do not know if his<br />fan base is enough to carry him through that far,<br />especially because there are a lot of big names<br />this season and other large fan bases.","Caitlyn McMullen (35%): I am keeping my<br />
333prediction. After the class discussion, I was<br />interested to learn that Justin is not officially<br />divorced yet, which I think also plays a large<br />role in the hesitancy that they will get engaged<br />in the next 2 months. My probability is not lower<br />because they have introduced their families and it<br />is very clear that their relationship is serious<br />(at least from what they are showing publicly).<br />However, they both have career obligations and<br />things to attend to in both California and Canada<br />as well. I think the long distance along with the<br />estrangement rather than divorce makes me less<br />confident that they will be engaged. I do think in<br />the next year it is probable, but not by November<br />19.","Caitlyn McMullen (10%): I am lowering my<br />probability after the class discussion because<br />I just do not think it is very possible for the<br />gas to drop below 3 dollars due to the ongoing<br />conflict in Iran and the fact that drop in oil<br />prices can take 3-6 weeks to be implemented into<br />gas stations. Additionally, even if the Strait of<br />Hormuz opened back up, Athens gas prices have not<br />been below the 3 dollars threshold in years. The<br />national gas prices would have to drop by almost<br />a dollar by November 19 which is not feasible. I<br />do not have my probability at 0 because you never<br />know.","Carter Ray (15%): Ben and Jerry's very rarely<br />releases new ice cream flavors in the Fall due<br />to not being peak Ice Cream season. New flavors<br />regularly drop from January - April, but there<br />does not seem to be a recent occurrence of a brand<br />new fall flavor since 2017. There is a limited<br />time flavor that is reintroduced consistently,<br />but it does not seem like this would meet the<br />definition as worded.","Carter Ray (40%): While Guillermo and his partner<br />are beloved by the fans, his performance on night<br />1, and abysmally low scores that came with it,<br />lead me to lower by revised prediction to 40%.<br />Additionally, his partner's pregnancy makes it<br />likely that she will be eliminated earlier, before<br />she is forced to withdraw. However, extremely high<br />fan votes could carry Guillermo to lasting until<br />Week 5.","Carter Ray (30%): Revising my estimate to be<br />lower, Justin Trudeau is still legally married,<br />and he has not finalized his divorce with his<br />previous wife Sophie. Additionally, they have<br />been dating for a relatively short amount of time<br />(14 months). However, they appear to be deeply<br />in love, with marriage rumors being floated for<br />several months.","Carter Ray (15%): Currently, there is no end in<br />sight for the Iran War and the Straight of Hormuz<br />opening back up in a state of pre-war normalcy.<br />This question can be heavily correlated with<br />whether or not the Iran War ends in enough time<br />to bring down gas prices, which seems extremely<br />unlikely. Trump has recently acknowledged that he<br />is not looking to bring the war to an end before<br />the midterms, and even if it does end immediately<br />after, it would be a very narrow window for gas<br />prices to decrease so significantly. In addition,<br />Trump advisors have stated the war is unlikely<br />to end even after the election. However, due to<br />Trump's volatility, I place the prediction at 15%.","Celina Simone (25%): After hearing about the<br />record of Ben and Jerry's not releasing flavors<br />in the fall my doubt was confirmed. This combined<br />with the fact that is a low sale of ice cream in<br />the winter/fall and they investing a large amount<br />of their funds into promoting the renewal of<br />Pumpkin Pie Cheesecake. There has also been little<br />social media hints about a new flavor. However,<br />due to the fact that an addition to an older<br />flavor (like chocolate chips) would constitute a<br />new flavor, I am staying at 25.","Celina Simone (55%): Guillermo RodrÃguez has a<br />chance of making it to the fifth round based on<br />fan base alone if you consider the success of<br />previous similar performers. His partner also has<br />a significant fan base as well. We should consider<br />though that multiple people similar to Rodriguez<br />did get out in episode four and his partner is<br />pregnant.","Celina Simone (25%): I still donât think that<br />
333Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau will get engaged,<br />considering he is still legally married. I believe<br />the possibility of upsetting Catholic constituents<br />in Canada and as Canada is working to further<br />join the EU this would ultimately be bad press<br />overall. We should consider though that is a<br />slight possibility considering they have met each<br />others children and their anniversary/Katy Perryâs<br />birthday is coming up.","Celina Simone (10%): I continue to think it is<br />highly unlikely that gas prices will decrease<br />below $3 by November 19th. The discussion in class<br />confirmed my original thoughts that the war in<br />Iran is showing little time to slow, and if it<br />dead it would take a significant amount of time<br />for prices to decrease. I lower my prediction for<br />new considerations of the impact of conflict in<br />Yemen and the loss of gas waivers.","Christopher Heyl (8%): Based on discussions in<br />class today, the odds of Ben and Jerry's deciding<br />to release a new flavor this fall are slim to<br />none. There is the odd chance that they announce<br />some seasonal new special, but it appears Razz<br />Up is the company's intended new flavor for the<br />fall season and it is doubtful they release a new<br />flavor any time soon. Fall is the slow period for<br />ice cream sales and it just does not make a lot<br />of economic sense for them to release a new flavor<br />
333any time soon.","Christopher Heyl (60%): Based on discussions in<br />class today I have decided to slightly revise<br />down my initial prediction to 60. This is because<br />of Whitney Carson's pregnancy coming into play.<br />If she resigns from the show before week 5, that<br />could spell doom for Guillermo's chances. That<br />being said, his widespread fan popularity could<br />also grow because of Carson's pregnancy and give<br />the pair even more positive press. I am leaning<br />more on the positive side of the fence for<br />Guillermo, but I still have my doubts.","Christopher Heyl (10%): Based on discussions in<br />class today, I am holding firm with my initial<br />prediction of 10%. Though tabloids may speculate<br />about a potential engagement, I don't think<br />Trudeau or Perry are looking to get married just<br />yet. My prediction is similar to the current<br />Kalshi odds for them being engaged by the end of<br />the year.","Christopher Heyl (5%): Based on discussions in<br />class I have decided to significantly revise down<br />my initial prediction. Gas prices are notoriously<br />sticky and take very long periods of time to<br />finally drop, time that currently we do not have<br />for the timeline of this prediction. On top of<br />that, it looks very unlikely that there will be<br />a resolution to the Strait of Hormuz and Iran War<br />any time soon, so there are no real reasons the<br />price would go down anyways.","Dean McDonald (20%): I revised my probability from<br />25 to 20 as I am convinced that no new flavors<br />will be released in the next two months. They've<br />already done an election flavor, and any new<br />ice cream would encroach on that marketing. In<br />addition, it's ice cream, and they almost always<br />only release new flavors approaching or during<br />summer.","Dean McDonald (35%): I do not know anything about<br />Dancing with the Stars, therefore class really<br />helped me understand. The sheer star power of<br />Guillermo is noted to have a massive impact on<br />whether or not he stays, and the combination with<br />possible sympathy votes from Whitney Carson's<br />pregnancy might mean that audience votes alone<br />carry him to the fifth week.","Dean McDonald (25%): I'm keeping my prediction<br />where it was before mainly due to Trudeau's<br />still-extant marriage, which greatly complicates<br />what would need to happen before he could<br />get engaged to Katy Perry. In addition, no<br />announcements regarding plans have come from<br />them, and both were in long-standing relationships<br />prior.","Dean McDonald (10%): Previous reasoning still<br />stands, with the ongoing status of the Iran War<br />meaning that it is very unlikely for any more oil<br />to be coming from the area that is not already<br />on the market. In addition, for gas to fall that<br />precipitously means a drastic change in either<br />supply or demand, and with the current pace<br />of extraction in the US and elsewhere, and the<br />seemingly unlimited demand still present, it is<br />extremely unlikely for gas to fall below three<br />dollars.","Denton Alexander (20%): I know Ben and Jerry's are<br />very politically active in their flavors and on<br />their various accounts, but if they have a catchy<br />political tagline they might be saving it for<br />the 2028 election cycle. Also, they already have<br />seasonal flavors re-dropping. They should want<br />to get more people to try their pumpkin-flavored<br />items.","Denton Alexander (60%): If Whitney was not<br />pregnant my percentage would be higher because a<br />lot of people seem to love Guillermo. However, she<br />is already 5 months pregnant and there could be<br />a chance that production would try and sway the<br />votes so that she could go home. Also, people are<br />coming off of a season where a \"bad\" dancer made<br />it to week 9, and some are very upset about that.<br />I really think it could go either way, but I think<br />he will be voted out on week 5 or 6.","Denton Alexander (20%): The couple seem very<br />in love and have attempted to have a 'blended<br />family' of sorts since they both have kids. Katy<br />has publicly professed that Justin is the love of<br />her life, which is a big statement. However, her<br />and her ex broke up only a little over 14 months<br />ago after a 9 year relationship (in which they<br />were engaged but never married). That would be a<br />very quick turnaround to getting engaged. There<br />are rumors of them getting engaged as well as<br />having Gavin Newsom officiate their wedding. The<br />possibility of Newsom running for president might<br />influence the question to be popped sooner since<br />2028 would be very busy for him, and engagements<br />usually last 11-18 months. The stats for divorced<br />adults with children to remarry are about ~55%,<br />and with complexities like young children, that<br />number is lower. I think the couple will get<br />engaged, but not this early on.","Denton Alexander (13%): It does not seem like the<br />war in Iran is stopping anytime soon (unless Trump<br />and others are attempting to garnish support for<br />the Republicans), but even then gas prices are<br />very sticky and it would take some time for prices<br />to actually drop. It would be wonderful but I am<br />
333very doubtful.","Dylan Goff (36%): After class discussion I am<br />now leaning more toward the majority. While I<br />wasnt aware that there was already a get out the<br />vote ice cream released, which shoots my messaing<br />argument in the foot. In addition they already<br />announced 5 out of the 6 usual ones. However, I<br />do stand by the fact that there is a chance that<br />something outragous happens that promts them into<br />releasing a new flavor","Dylan Goff (33%): Honestly i think my intial<br />probability was accurate. I think it takes the<br />fan vote into account and every point againts him<br />in class was countered well. I Think that this<br />accounts for fan actions but also keeps in mind<br />the corperate motivations behind the show","Dylan Goff (37%): After class dicussion, I<br />realized that I overestimated this one but I still<br />feel like based off what ive seen theres no way<br />for the probablility to be incredibly low. I think<br />that there is still timeline correlations but can<br />see that they most likley will move it slow.","Dylan Goff (3%): I found very little reason to<br />change my initial prediction. The impossibility<br />for the war in iran to stop their control of the<br />state of hormuz is still going to keep oil supply<br />choked. Trump still wont admit defeat. All other<br />possible alternatives to oil discussed in class<br />could possibly happen together to lower prices,<br />but even then i do not think it would be below 3<br />dollars a gallong","Edy Thompson (35%): I originally said there was a<br />65% chance Ben & Jerryâs will release a new flavor<br />by November 19th. They released a couple sundae<br />flavors in February (PB Blondie Bestie, Mocha Mood<br />Pie, Straw-Bae Shortcake). They released Honey<br />Graham Latte in April. And, they also released<br />Razz Up in July. This means new flavors are coming<br />out about every 2-3 months. However they don't<br />typically release flavors in the fall because its<br />the off season so I am lowering my prediction to<br />35%","Edy Thompson (60%): Dancing with the Stars<br />premiered last night. Guillermo managed to make it<br />through the first elimination despite receiving a<br />10/30 (the lowest score). The only thing that will<br />save him this season is him being the underdog<br />and fan favorite, like Andy was. I think he will<br />end up receiving a lot of votes from the public up<br />until the end. I will give this a 60% chance.","Edy Thompson (10%): I think it is unlikely that<br />Justin Trudeau and Katy Perry will be engaged by<br />November 19. They started dating around July 2025,<br />but made it public in October 2025, so they only<br />have been together about a year. However, Katty<br />did call him âthe love of my lifeâ in a recent<br />interview, but nothing about marriage or proposals<br />was brought up. There have been no tabloids<br />leaking anything, but with celebrities you never<br />know what could happen. I am putting this at 10%.","Edy Thompson (5%): I think it is very unlikely<br />that a gallon of regular gas will cost less than<br />$3 at the Golden Pantry on Prince and Barber on<br />or before November 19. As of today, the average<br />price for a gallon of regular gas in the state<br />of Georgia is $4.0173 and $4.004 in Athens. That<br />means there would only be two months for the price<br />to drop a whole dollar. Iâd put this at 5%.","Ella Vars (30%): Ben & Jerrys does not often<br />release new flavors in these coming months,<br />because their peak season is the summer. They are<br />more likley to re-release seasonal flavors, but<br />for the purposes of this prediction, that does<br />not count. They have also already released their<br />election flavor, which is the previous precedent<br />for what they would release during this period.","Ella Vars (55%): After watching the first week<br />of DWTS, I have increased my probability that<br />Guillermo will stay past week 4. He seems to be<br />commited to trying hard in his dances, and more<br />importantly, he has a good presence when doing<br />interviews and during the show. I think there are<br />many other contestants with a weaker presence who<br />will leave before Guillermo.","Ella Vars (25%): I am going with the wisdom of<br />the crowd on this prediction. Due to the fact<br />that both Katy and Justin have previously been<br />married, they don't seem keen to rush into another<br />engagement. With how new their relationship is,<br />and the length of their past relationships in<br />comparison, I think it will be at least another<br />year until they are engaged.","Ella Vars (5%): This sort of drop would be a 25%<br />decrease, which seems only possible if the war<br />in Iran were to end. Trump specifically said that<br />this war will continue through November and there<br />is no clear end in sight, especially with Iran<br />rejecting peace talks. The cheapest we have seen<br />in the last few months was around $3.70 which is<br />very far from $3.00.","Eva Carnes (20%): One constraint of this question<br />was that the new flavor could not be a seasonal<br />flavor returning to stores. Which leads me to the<br />conclusion that Ben and Jerry's likely will not be<br />releasing a new flavor before November 19. Since<br />we have entered the fall months, the demand for<br />ice cream has significantly decreased. Ben and<br />Jerry's recently released their midterm flavor, so<br />there ought not to be another one of those.","Eva Carnes (30%): Historically, many senior<br />contestants are often eliminated within the first<br />few weeks due to their physical limitations and<br />how low their scores are. On the first night,<br />Guillermo was already in the bottom three<br />contestants, and scraped by the elimination on the<br />first night. The main thing working in Guillermo's<br />favor is America's vote, but the popular vote<br />cannot carry an individual all the way through.","Eva Carnes (20%): Justin and Katy began publicly<br />dating in October 2025, meaning their engagement<br />would come just one year following the two getting<br />together. Considering they are both older with<br />past relationships, the two are less likely to get<br />into another marriage quickly. Justin was married<br />for 18 years, and Katy just got out of a 3 year<br />engagement. Her prior engagement to Orlando Bloom<br />is what brought me to 20%, as the end was very<br />close to the beginning of the relationship with<br />Justin.","Eva Carnes (5%): The United States sources a<br />majority of its petroleum from Middle Eastern<br />nations since the oil in the Gulf is not<br />sufficient to the needs of the public. The Strait<br />of Hormuz is a major source for the gas that we<br />receive from the Middle East. However, the United<br />States is currently involved in a conflict with<br />Iran who controls much of this strait. This means<br />that the availability of this resource has been<br />limited as Iran is not allowing much to pass<br />through. This has caused the price to rise.","Hailey Chae (40%): For this question, I am only<br />counting flavors that have never been sold before<br />and use a new recipe, rather than an existing<br />flavor being brought back or a new product format.<br />Ben & Jerry's is still actively developing new<br />flavors, and the company has already introduced<br />new flavors in 2026, including Razz Up!. However,<br />many people in class said they think it is<br />unlikely because of the requirements for this<br />forecasting question. The company also has a<br />history of experimenting with new recipes and<br />regularly adding and retiring flavors. However,<br />I don't have evidence of a specific new flavor<br />scheduled for release before November 19.","Hailey Chae (35%): I forecast a 35% chance that<br />Guillermo Rodriguez will make it to the fifth week<br />of Dancing with the Stars. My biggest concern is<br />his dancing ability. He received only 10/30 in<br />the first week, the lowest score of the night.<br />However, he still survived the first elimination,<br />which suggests his popularity with viewers may<br />make up for some of his weaker scores. Guillermo<br />is already well known from Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and<br />his partner Witney Carson is a two-time champion.<br />At the same time, the competition is strong, and<br />if Guillermo continues receiving very low scores,<br />viewer support may eventually not be enough.<br />I think he has a reasonable chance of reaching<br />
333Week 5, but his low scores make it slightly more<br />likely he'll be eliminated before then. I think<br />it is important to note how big of an influence<br />fanbase voting has, so I could see him making it<br />far but probably not to week 5, especially if they<br />continue to do double eliminations.","Hailey Chae (19%): Strong evidence suggests<br />their relationship is serious: they have been<br />together for over a year, have made it public,<br />have spent time with each other's children, and<br />Perry recently called Trudeau the âlove of my<br />lifeâ in People magazine. However, I think being<br />serious about a relationship is different from<br />being ready to get engaged within two months.<br />They have only been together for what we know is<br />around 14 months, which is still less than the<br />amount of time Trudeau was with Sophie Grégoire<br />Trudeau, which was around two years. Both have<br />extremely busy lives, with Perry balancing music<br />(just coming back from a massive world tour),<br />business, and entertainment projects while Trudeau<br />is starting his new film and television production<br />company and continuing public and international<br />engagements. They are also still working to blend<br />their families and establish a stable routine.<br />Since there is no confirmed proposal or report<br />that an engagement is imminent, I think 10% is<br />a reasonable forecast. After class, I think the<br />argument that something like an engagement is<br />impossible to predict, and these are celebrities<br />so how much do we really know about whatâs going<br />on in their personal lives.","Hailey Chae (23%): After class discu
333ssion, it also<br />seems like the Golden Pantry is an expensive gas<br />station on average. The current average price for<br />regular gas in Athens is around $3.30, so prices<br />would have to fall by roughly 30 cents to reach<br />below $3. However, I know that this past weekend,<br />across Georgia, gas prices almost reached, or<br />even exceeded, $4. I donât remember the last time<br />Iâve seen gas prices below $3. I think there is<br />a reasonable chance because gas prices can change<br />quickly, and the forecast only requires the price<br />to drop below $3 once, rather than stay there.<br />However, because the current price is still<br />significantly above $3 and there are only about<br />two months until the deadline, I think it is more<br />likely the price will stay above $3.","Hannah Hartley (40%): The class discussion led me<br />to change my prediction, however I am not fully<br />confident that they will not create a new flavor.<br />The seasonal impact of ice cream, along with the<br />releases that they have already have, along with<br />the new definitions of what is considered new ice<br />cream has led me to believe it is less likely they<br />will release a new flavor. Also, the factor of it<br />needing to be at the location downtown makes it<br />less likely it will happen.","Hannah Hartley (55%): I still believe that this<br />is the most likely prediction due to past season's<br />scores, the comparison to Andy Richter, and the<br />likability of Guillermo. His historically low<br />score has to be contextualized to understand the<br />significance of the votes. Also, the probability<br />of there being a no-elimination night makes me<br />believe he may make it to the fifth week.","Hannah Hartley (20%): I believe it is highly<br />unlikely they are engaged by this date. The class<br />discussion about his current marriage, their<br />former lengthy relationships, and the lack of<br />rumors and talking about engagement leads me to<br />believe that they really will not get engaged in<br />the next two months. The consensus is that it may<br />just be too soon.","Hannah Hartley (10%): I think it is highly<br />unlikely that the gas prices will be able to<br />drop that significantly in such a short period<br />
333of time. After the class discussion, the conflict<br />occurring in the Strait of Hormuz and in the<br />region seems even less likely the price could drop<br />that significantly. Also, the location of the gas<br />station along with the Shell partnership makes me<br />believe that it is even less likely.","Haven Priem (20%): After talking about this<br />question in class I have become even more<br />confident in my idea that they will not release<br />any new flavors. Looking at past trends they do<br />not typically release flavors during these months<br />because it's not the typical ice cream time.","Haven Priem (30%): I do not think that he will<br />make it just because he does not have the same<br />pull as andy did. As well he preformed not so<br />great in the first week of dancing with the<br />stars. I just don't see him making it any farther,<br />especially considering that we are about to<br />combine women and men.","Haven Priem (25%): I do not think they will just<br />get married by november 19th just because she is<br />kind of scared from her prior divorces, aswell<br />they just started dated a little over a year ago<br />so I believe that she will wait a little longer.<br />Also it is more of a big deal considering that he<br />used to be prime minister.","Haven Priem (10%): I do not think that the price<br />of gas will go down at all. In recent months the<br />price of gas has increased at a pretty steady<br />upward rate. Also this is supposed to be the<br />cheaper months but it's still increasing. As well<br />after hearing everyone else talk about it, it just<br />reaffirmed my thoughts before class.","Isabella Picciano (30%): In order for this<br />statement to be âyes,â Ben and Jerryâs would<br />have to release a new flavor by November 19th. I<br />started with looking at the past five years from<br />September to November to see if they commonly<br />release new flavors then. Ben and Jerryâs did not<br />release a new flavor from September - November of<br />2025, but rather re-released a seasonal flavor:<br />Pumpkin Cheesecake. In September 2024, âBenâs<br />Bestâ flavor was released but it was not a âBen<br />and Jerryâsâ branded product but rather made<br />headlines due to the founders of Ben and Jerryâs<br />involvement. Ben and Jerryâs from September -<br />November of 2023 did not release a new flavor,<br />but rather announced an oat-based reformulation to<br />existing flavors. September - November 2022, Ben<br />and Jerry's re-released and rebranded the flavor<br />âChange is Brewingâ but did not create a new one.<br />Rebranding, re-releasing, or reformulation would<br />not qualify under this question if we are asking<br />only for ânew flavors.â However, September -<br />November 2021, Ben and Jerryâs released âChange<br />is Brewingâ as an entirely new flavor which would<br />qualify. This past July, Ben and Jerryâs released<br />a new flavor âRazz Upâ for the upcoming midterm<br />elections but that would not qualify under this<br />question since it pertains to this upcoming fall.<br />I therefore predict only a 30% probability that<br />a new fall release will happen because throughout<br />this research, it is evident that Ben and Jerry's<br />commonly release new flavors earlier in the year<br />and rebrand or re-release existing flavors in the<br />second portion of the year.","Isabella Picciano (40%): I predict a 40% chance<br />that Guillermo Rodriguez makes it to the fifth<br />week of Dancing with the Stars this season.<br />Evidence that suggests âyesâ include that<br />heâs paired with Witney Carson, the previous<br />seasonâs champion meaning that he is getting<br />top-notch training and choreography. Secondly,<br />his training and experience leading up to the<br />show's premier has already received coverage on<br />Jimmy Kimmel Live! which could encourage voting.<br />The last factor is that Rodriguez is a talk show<br />personality and comedian which I think will really<br />appeal to the voters and hopefully translate to<br />keeping him on until week 5. Evidence that lowers<br />the probability is that betting and popularity<br />odds for Rodgriuez are in the lower half of the<br />cast at around +2400 to win. This also means that<br />despite his comedic appeal, he lacks a massive<br />fan voting block like other contestants have.<br />Secondly, in previous seasons contestants like<br />Nikki Glaser, Jeffrey Ross, and Chris Kattan,<br />were widely loved for their comedic, fun loving<br />attitudes, but less skillful in their dances.<br />Despite this, they struggled to survive past<br />the first couple of weeks as the competition<br />progressed and skill requirements increased to<br />pass into further rounds. Finally, Rodriguez and<br />Giada de Laurentiis are the oldest contestants<br />in the cast. This doesnât always translate to<br />practical skill, but a useful consideration.","Isabella Picciano (20%): To be âyes,â Justin<br />Trudeau and Katy Perry would have to publicly<br />
333announce their engagement from a reputable<br />source by November 19th. The pair have been<br />dating, or at least first spotted together in<br />Montreal,July of 2025. This means theyâve only<br />been dating for about 14 months. Factors that<br />increase the probability include Katy Perryâs<br />describing Trudeau as the âlove of my life,â<br />on her social media and an InStyle article that<br />reports that Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau are<br />looking to âslow things down after a whirlwind<br />first year of datingâ and that they are âfocused<br />on creating a stable system to nurture their<br />children.â This isnât indicative of marital plans,<br />however demonstrates the seriousness of their<br />relationship. On the other hand, there is more<br />evidence that decreases the probability of this<br />happening. First, Katy Perry and Orlando Bloom,<br />her ex-husband, officially announced their split<br />in People on July 3, 2025. The end of her 9 year<br />marriage could reasonably indicate that Perry<br />may want to take her time getting into another<br />marriage so quickly. Additionally, Katy Perry<br />and Orlando Bloom dated on and off for three<br />years before their engagement and Jutin Trudeau<br />and his ex wife dated for two years before their<br />engagement. This suggests they may wait a similar<br />period of time as their last marriages. Third,<br />there is no proposal, wedding, or ring reported<br />from any reputable source. From this evidence,<br />I believe that their relationship, although<br />serious, doesn't outweigh the fact that they just<br />celebrated their one year, we only have two months<br />left in this prediction cycle, and Katy Perry just<br />got out of a 9 year marriage. Thus, I predict a<br />20% chance they get engaged by November 19th.","Isabella Picciano (15%): To be âyes,â regular<br />gas cost must be below $3 at the Golden Pantry<br />on Prince and Barber at least once on or before<br />November 19th. According to AAA Fuel Prices,<br />the average gas price in Athens, Georgia for<br />regular gas right now is $3.94. A month ago,<br />the average price of regular gas was $3.67 and<br />has been steadily increasing since. Last year,<br />the price of regular gas in Athens, Georgia was<br />$2.88. Factors that would decrease gas prices<br />include the historically repetitive trend where<br />gas typically becomes cheaper post Labor Day as<br />people stop traveling as much and refusers switch<br />to producing less expensive winter grade fuel<br />blends. Additionally, this summer the Georgia<br />Department of Agriculture adopted the EPAâs<br />emergency national fuel waiver. The purpose is to<br />lower gas prices by allowing refiners to switch<br />to winter grade fuel blends about two weeks<br />earlier than usual. Despite these factors, I do<br />not predict that gas prices will substantially<br />drop down a whole dollar by November 19th due to<br />the ongoing conflict with Iran. President Trump<br />predicted that any sort of relief on gas prices<br />should be expected post midterm elections. Crude<br />oil has surged past $100 a barrel, there is<br />still rising tension between Iran and the U.S.<br />particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is<br />damaged oil infrastructure and shipping fees that<br />significantly limit the likelihood that gas prices<br />will decline to that extent by our deadline. Thus,<br />I predict a 15% chance that the regular gas prices<br />at the Golden Pantry on Prince and Barber decline<br />that amount.","Jacob Nabors (83%): Ben and Jerry's is known<br />to release new flavors on a pretty frequent<br />schedule. They are also known to release flavors<br />and do specific campaigns for civic and election<br />based events. Given that the time frame includes<br />Election Day, it is highly probable that a new<br />flavor will be available at the downtown location.","Jacob Nabors (74%): One of his competitors has<br />already stated that they believe that he will be<br />a threat and one of the judges has also commented<br />that he is genuinely talented. He also has a very<br />good partner who won last season. Overall, he also<br />is seen to compare to Andy from last season, a fan<br />favorite.","Jacob Nabors (11%): The two have not been dating<br />in public for an incredibly long time, roughly 18<br />months. While I think that they are going strong<br />as a couple, I do not think that they are at the<br />place of engagement. The couple has been seen at<br />
333large events recently, but again, I do not think<br />that engagement will come in the next two months.","Jacob Nabors (18%): There are several things that<br />would need to happen to drop gas prices back down.<br />First, an actual, final agreement would need to be<br />made to end the conflict in Iran. Trump has touted<br />several of these in the past, but none have seemed<br />to have stuck for long (or even long enough to<br />make a drastic decrease in gas prices). The drop<br />needed is around one dollar, this is not likely to<br />happen as even ending the conflict would only drop<br />back down to $3.40-$3.50. While something drastic<br />could happen and cause the decrease needed for the<br />day required, it does not seem likely.","Jason Eappen (3%): Because of the new flavors have<br />already been released for the year and because<br />their election flavor was already released, it<br />seems very unlikely that any new flavor would be<br />announced. Looking at the past data, a new flavor<br />would have already been announced or teased by<br />now. Making it very unlikely.","Jason Eappen (10%): With him getting one of the<br />lowest scores of Week 1, it seems unlikely he<br />will get to week 5. The only power he has to power<br />him through would be his mass celebrity status<br />backing. He scored a 10/30 on technical scores. If<br />he is able to get his technical higher as well as<br />his audience score, there is a world where he does<br />surivive.","Jason Eappen (1%): With no updates coming in the<br />previous days, it seems highly unlikely that Katy<br />Perry and Justin get married. Unless Katy Perry's<br />history is completely defied, there is more of<br />a chance they break up than getting married.With<br />divocre people, it usually takes them longer to<br />trust someone and get married again. Combine that<br />fact with Katy Perry taking over a year (in some<br />relationships) to decide on whether to stay or get<br />married, it is an uphill battle for them to get<br />married before November 19th.","Jason Eappen (1%): With the additional discussion<br />in class, the new front of the Iran war in Yemen,<br />slow price movements, the odds that gas will be<br />below 3 dollars is just highly unlikely. Learning<br />how, according to a CNBC article, that \"if all the<br />stars align\" and the Iran War concludes and the<br />pipelines are back and running at full capacity<br />it will still take 3-6 weeks for the price to<br />re-adjust. Even then, because the price of gas<br />is at 4 dollars, it will go down to only 3.50. It<br />will probably take until 2027 until the price goes<br />down to 3 dollars with no disruptions.","Jordan Sanderson (62%): The fall is typically<br />a slower season for ice cream, and is more<br />likely they will release a already used flavor<br />such as Pumpkin Cheesecake. It is possible they<br />can formulate something new from one of their<br />suggestions, but if it just has to be new (not<br />necessarily a pint or sundae) then there could<br />be a argument made that something surprise can be<br />introduced.","Jordan Sanderson (60%): Eliminations based on<br />half judge vote and other half public vote. Past<br />precedent with older male competitions remaining<br />on the show exists, and with his strong fan base<br />there is an argument to be made that he can remain<br />on the show soley just through his popularity","Jordan Sanderson (30%): Trudeau is still married<br />and co-parenting with his wife whom we separated<br />from a few years back. They have both had long<br />term relationships (katy w/ Orlando Bloom for 9<br />years) so 1 year is unlikely to be enough time to<br />consider engagement. With Trudeau also ending his<br />political career there is likely to be more focus<br />on both of their respective careers over advancing<br />
333their relationship.","Jordan Sanderson (17%): Given the political<br />climate in Strait of Hormuz the price of gas is<br />likely to significantly drop, especially to below<br />$3. The last time gas prices were ihat threshold<br />was in 2023, and even now a full dollar drop in<br />the span of a few months is extremely unlikely<br />to occur. I think that the price is more likely<br />to float,dropping a few cents and fluctuate but t<br />most it will probably be a differential of 20 to<br />30 cents.","Joshua Mui (10%): Typically Ben and Jerry's<br />doesn't release flavors in the fall, but at the<br />same time it's not unheard of. Research shows<br />the last time this happened was in 2021, for<br />a political/social campaign, but with Unilver<br />backing away from allowing advocacy from the<br />brand, I can't see something similar happening.<br />In addition, fall flavors are typically announced<br />around mid-september (now) and we haven't seen<br />any teases or signs anything might be coming soon<br />beyond the regular pumpkin cheesecake. I'm still<br />
333doubtful after class discussion, and I'll keep<br />the extremity in this case but I may or may not<br />eat crap on this. The Razz flavor being election<br />related does give me optimism that they wouldn't<br />have two election-related flavors out at the same<br />time, so it could be worse. Best thing I could've<br />done is gone out to ask the manager which I<br />didn't.","Joshua Mui (40%): I'm going to have to coward<br />it out and stand my ground. Class discussion<br />shows how spread opinions are on this topic, and<br />the past of Andy Richter can both help and hurt<br />Guillermo. I can see this reasonably swinging<br />either way, but for now I think with the expanded<br />cast and his extremely subpar dancing skills,<br />combined with voters who don't want a repeat of<br />last year, will eliminate Guillermo hopefully<br />before the deadline.","Joshua Mui (30%): The pair were first seen<br />together last July, so it's been over a year<br />they've been together. At the same time there's<br />nothing really swirling around that something<br />is going to happen soon, but for the most part<br />celebrity relationship announcements are kept<br />pretty private, and I'd expect nothing less from<br />a former politician and a musician if something<br />randomly dropped one day. I could probably be more<br />aggressive here, but there's so many unaccounted<br />factors here that I can't tell.","Joshua Mui (1%): Unfortunately I can't seem to<br />find data on Golden Pantry specifically, but<br />based on gas prices across the board, I can't<br />see prices going under $3.00 any time soon. Based<br />on AAA historical data, the price of regular has<br />been holding well above $3.00 since February. It<br />would take multiple factors to temp down prices,<br />firstly being the end of the Iran war, the end<br />of disruptions to gas services related to Saudi<br />Arabia, Ukraine, or Russia, a tax break from<br />the governor, or some spontaneous miracle. Even<br />then, something like a tax break would only knock<br />down the average 33c/g, which wouldn't put the<br />average under $3. On top of that, the principles<br />of demand, even if outside factors and conflicts<br />were resolved, could still keep gas prices higher<br />than $3 as that's just what people are and have<br />been willing to pay. In addition, the issue with<br />rockets and feathers that we talked about should<br />otherwise be able to stave off any sudden price<br />drops, especially over 25%.","Julia Krehbiel (20%): I am keeping my probability<br />the same because I do not think that there will<br />be an entirely new flavor that is released in the<br />next few months, given there have been no rumors<br />or leaks of anything yet. Also, when reviewing<br />the way they typically release flavors based on<br />the seasons, I feel as though a fall release of<br />a completely new flavor would be unlikely, with<br />the Razz Up flavor having come out just in July.<br />I am keeping a small percentage because I know<br />that sometimes they have cameo flavors or maybe<br />something that is a complete suprise that they<br />have been working on in the background.","Julia Krehbiel (45%): I am lowering my probability<br />because, although I feel like he resembles Andy<br />a lot in the way he is perceived by the fans,<br />I think that they received backlash last year<br />for the way he took the place of a more talented<br />dancer in the season. But I also think that week<br />5 is not too far into the season that they would<br />want to cut him earlier because he seems to be<br />very loved by the fans so far.","Julia Krehbiel (20%): I am keeping my probability<br />the same because I feel like all of my reasons<br />stand. These reasons were that she called off<br />an engagement with her former partner, Orlando<br />Bloom. I do not think that she is in much of a<br />rush to get engaged again, and I also think that<br />if she were to get engaged or even married that<br />we would see a quieter side from her about her<br />relationship. I am still leaving a possibility,<br />however, because I do know that she has an<br />eccentric side and could shock the public with an<br />engagement.","Julia Krehbiel (10%): I am lowering my probability<br />even more because, after learning how long it has<br />been in Georgia since gas fell below 3 dollars,<br />I feel that it is very unlikely, with the current<br />situation in the Middle East, that it would drop<br />by over a dollar in the next few months. I am<br />keeping a slight likelihood because I know that<br />Trump can be unpredictable and gas has fluctuated<br />often during his terms, but I do not think that<br />a whole-dollar drop will take place in this<br />political environment.","Kiefer Adams (40%): I am maintaining my 40%<br />probability that Ben & Jerry's will release a<br />new flavor within this time window. My reasoning<br />behind this is that they have already released<br />several new flavors this year, which theoretically<br />may reduce any pressure to release a new flavor<br />before the holiday season. This is especially<br />true because they have already released a<br />\"fall\" flavor, putting Christmas as the next<br />holiday-themed flavor to be released, and I doubt<br />this would happen before Thanksgiving.","Kiefer Adams (40%): I am revising my forecast for<br />Guillermo Rodriguez making it to the fifth week<br />of Dancing with the Stars to 40% from my earlier<br />30%. This is because of the recent precedent<br />of personality characters staying longer than<br />their dancing abilities may warrant. Because<br />of Guillermo's appeal to fans, I think his odds<br />of pulling through based on fan-vote alone are<br />reasonable. However, I still do not think that he<br />has greater than a 50% probability of still being<br />there by week 5.","Kiefer Adams (5%): I have revised my forecast from<br />25% to 5% that Justin Trudeau and Katy Perry will<br />be engaged by November 19. The main reason for<br />this downward revision is that Trudeau is still<br />currently married and focused on co-parenting his<br />child. With celebrities of this caliber, I imagine<br />a somewhat lengthy divorce process (especially if<br />they want to stay in the tabloids), and so this<br />could draw out the process longer. This relies on<br />the assumption that he would not propose prior to<br />being divorced from his current wife.","Kiefer Adams (5%): I am maintaining my 5%<br />probability that gas will drop below $3 per gallon<br />at the Golden Pantry before November 19th. My<br />reasoning behind this is the mountain of evidence<br />suggesting that the Iran War will continue for a<br />substantial amount of time (if not the entirety)<br />of this time frame. Additionally, even if the<br />war does end prior to November 19th, there is an<br />extremely low likelihood that a decrease in prices<br />would reach the pumps before the deadline.","Krish Chinta (19%): With the conservative<br />definition of \"new flavor,\" I am revising my<br />prediction to account for the downtown store<br />being an independent franchise that does not<br />carry neither retail exclusive packaged pints nor<br />limited batch test runs, alongside the historical<br />Ben and Jerry new flavor release schedule being<br />limited during September to November and the fact<br />that they have already released their election<br />related flavor. Even if a new flavor is announced<br />by November, the nature of franchised scoop stores<br />is such that it will arrive at the store weeks<br />later, and it is far likely an older fall favorite<br />
333will be rereleased into the lineup.","Krish Chinta (67%): Given that he has made it past<br />the first week, the base probability of making<br />it to Week 5 is around 78.6%, assuming random<br />elimination. Guillermo scored extremely poorly<br />with the judges, but the fact that he did not get<br />eliminated speaks to his massive fan popularity.<br />A good comparison for his archetype of contestant<br />is last season's Andy Richter, another low-scoring<br />talk show sidekick who made it until Week 9. There<br />is an additional complication of his partner,<br />and Season 34 winner, Witney Carson's looming<br />pregnancy. This may help with fan voting due to<br />sympathy, but it may also introduce unexpected<br />complications with new partners if she has to<br />leave. His fan boost may also be less relevant<br />over time as average contestant skill goes up and<br />the novelty of his presence decreases, but Richter<br />shows the pattern can hold long enough for the<br />question to resolve true.","Krish Chinta (9%): The two began dating in late<br />2025, meaning an engagement this year would<br />be extremely quick, especially for two highly<br />public figures who were previously in extended,<br />long-term relationships. Kalshi currently has the<br />odds of them being engaged by the end of the year<br />as being 15%, which, if taken to be an accurate<br />probability, should be higher than the odds of<br />them being engaged in a shorter timeframe that<br />excludes major holidays.","Krish Chinta (4%): The most realistic ways in<br />which gas drops a full dollar would likely either<br />be a massive demand shock from a severe recession<br />or a series of miraculous events that stabilize<br />conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine such that<br />the price of crude oil drops by upwards of 25%.<br />Both of these seem highly unlikely in the current<br />situation.","Leah Mojica (5%): I think there is a very low<br />chance that Ben and Jerry's will release a new<br />flavor by November 19th. They are much more likely<br />to bring back a previous limited edition flavor<br />such as pumpkin cheesecake. There are no signs on<br />social media hinting at any new flavor drops, and<br />if there was one we probably would've had some<br />sign/ tease by now.","Leah Mojica (50%): I think this is a really tricky<br />one and I could honestly see it going either way.<br />Guillermo has a significant fan base, but his<br />technique isn't quite there. He was in the bottom<br />three this week and scored the second lowest score<br />in the shows history. However, fan votes make up<br />50% of the decision so it is very possible that<br />fans will carry him through at least to week 5.","Leah Mojica (10%): I think there is a really low<br />probability that they will get engaged in the<br />next two months, considering Justin Trudeau is not<br />legally divorced to his previous wife. Although,<br />they seem to have an intense relationship I do not<br />see them getting engaged by November.","Leah Mojica (0%): I think there is no chance that<br />gas prices will be below $3 at the Golden Pantry<br />by November 19th. After our discussion, several<br />people highlighted the fact that we haven't seen<br />prices that low since 2023. I highly doubt that<br />gas prices would lower to these rates given the<br />current circumstances, and even if the conflict<br />with Iran did resolve I still think it would take<br />a long time for gas prices to get that low again.","Matthew Fern (40%): With the new understanding<br />of what a new flavor is, as well as a new<br />understanding of Ben and Jerry's releases, I<br />believe that my previous probability was quite<br />high. For one, this is definitely not a time<br />when new ice cream flavors would be released. I<br />do think that they will re-release some seasonal<br />flavors from year's past. I still have it up at<br />40% because I do not rule out the idea that, in<br />such an important election year, they may release<br />a second election or social-themed flavor, or even<br />introduce a new holiday/seasonal flavor.","Matthew Fern (35%): I still do not really<br />anticipate Guiellermo making it to the fifth week.<br />While I do think that he is a big fan favorite, it<br />just seems like so many things are stacked against<br />him. For example, his scores are low and I do<br />not anticipate him getting all that much better.<br />Additionally, his partner is going into her third<br />trimester, and I have seen some argument online<br />to vote him off so that she has some more time to<br />rest as she reaches the end of her pregnancy.","Matthew Fern (25%): I am sticking with my initial<br />forecast of 25%. While a birthday engagement<br />could be a great deal, I still do not believe<br />that it is highly likely to happen, especially<br />not after only one year. In class, we heard<br />some good perspectives on the status of previous<br />relationships, as well as the statistics of<br />others, all of which seem to align with an<br />unlikely engagement by November 19th.","Matthew Fern (5%): I am sticking with my 5%<br />probability. In class, many of the same points<br />I brought up were discussed, and there were<br />even some new perspectives that showed just how<br />unlikely it would be for this to happen. With<br />conflict in the Middle East and the general<br />stickiness of gas prices, I anticipate that gas<br />prices are very unlikely to go below $3 a gallon.","Megan Tate (60%): My original forecast that Ben &<br />Jerryâs will release a new flavor by November was<br />75%, but I am lowering it to 60%. I still believe<br />it is more likely than not that a new flavor will<br />come out because Ben & Jerryâs releases flavors<br />fairly regularly and there is still a decent<br />amount of time until November. However, after<br />hearing my classmatesâ reasoning in class today<br />for having lower forecasts and considering Ben &<br />Jerryâs recent release of Razz Up!, I decided to<br />lower my probability.","Megan Tate (35%): I think there is a 35% chance<br />that Guillermo Rodriguez will make it to the<br />fifth week of Dancing with the Stars this season.<br />Rodriguez had a rough start in Week 1, scoring<br />only 10/30, with 3s from Derek Hough and Bruno<br />Tonioli and a 4 from Carrie Ann Inaba. This<br />put him at the bottom of the menâs leaderboard.<br />However, despite his low score, Rodriguez received<br />enough viewer support to avoid elimination. This<br />gives me reason to believe the audience could help<br />him survive, even if judgesâ scores remain low.<br />Witney Carson, his partner, is also an experienced<br />professional who won Season 34, so I think<br />there is still time for Rodriguez to improve his<br />technique and performance.","Megan Tate (25%): I think there is a 25% chance<br />that Justin Trudeau and Katy Perry will be engaged<br />by November 19. They have been dating for a little<br />over a year, and they made their red-carpet debut<br />at Tribeca in June. Perry has recently described<br />Trudeau as the âlove of my life,â which suggests<br />that their relationship is quite serious. However,<br />there are no news articles or recent posts<br />reporting that an engagement is currently planned<br />or imminent, which leads me to believe that a<br />proposal is not going to happen in the next two<br />months.","Megan Tate (15%): I think there is a 15% chance<br />that a gallon of regular gas will cost less than<br />$3 at the Golden Pantry on Prince and Barber on<br />or before November 19. I went with a probability<br />on the lower side because I do not see gas prices<br />dropping anytime soon. Athens gas prices are<br />currently about $3.57/gallon, meaning the price<br />would need to fall almost $1 per gallon in roughly<br />two months. With national gas prices remaining<br />unusually high right now, averaging around<br />
333$4.30/gallon, a decline this significant is highly<br />unlikely without a significant drop in global oil<br />demand.","Mera Moucharrafie (15%): Because the summer is<br />coming to an end and fall is approaching, Ben<br />& Jerry's will most likely bring back the fan<br />favorite \"Pumpkin Cheesecake\" flavor instead of<br />creating new flavors. While they have had many new<br />flavors over the summer (e.g. Stra-bae Shortcake,<br />PB Blondie Bestie, and Mocha Mood Pie, Honey<br />Graham Latte, etc.), it was only throughout the<br />late spring/early summer. Ben & Jerry's is not<br />typically known for continuously producing new<br />flavors for the fall. Also, Ben & Jerry's (or<br />ice cream shops in general) make a chunk of their<br />profits during the summer, so creating new flavors<br />in the winter when they are unsure of how well<br />it would sell, doesn't make as much sense; they<br />might just be more inclined to bringing back fan<br />favorites.","Mera Moucharrafie (50%): I could truly see this<br />going either way. While Guillermo and his partner,<br />Whitney Carson, received the lowest votes for<br />their first performance on the premiere night<br />and the second lowest in DWTS history, his fan<br />votes still kept him in the running. He avoided<br />elimination and will now make it on to round two.<br />When looking into the previous season of DWTS,<br />the lowest-scoring celebrity, Andy Richter, had<br />not been improving or adding difficulty to his<br />routines. However, he advanced almost every round<br />and made it to semi-finals because he was such<br />a fan favorite. On the September 16th, 2026,<br />People published an article that said Guillermo<br />is already a fan favorite (\"received boos from the<br />crowd because his score was so low\") and that the<br />entire cast of DWTS loves him.","Mera Moucharrafie (20%): We know that that these<br />two have been seeing each other since July 2025,<br />and started going public in October of 2025.<br />While there is no exact rumor of their engagement,<br />they are both very busy individuals (especially<br />Trudeau being from Canada) who make time to visit<br />each other very often, whether that's on tour<br />or traveling via plane, all while taking care<br />of their kids from their previous relationships.<br />However, Trudeau is still not completely divorced<br />from his previous wife, as they are legally<br />separated, and would have to divorce her in order<br />to marry Katy Perry. Trudeau and his previous wife<br />have been separated for three years.","Mera Moucharrafie (10%): With a holistic review,<br />looking into the state of Georgia gas prices and<br />Athens, GA gas prices, along with the season, and<br />the current state of politics, I would predict<br />this to be 10%. Usually fall/winter gas prices<br />are cheaper than summer gas prices in Georgia,<br />and midterm elections will happen right before<br />November 19th. However, according to AAA Fuel<br />Prices, the average gallon price for Georgia this<br />year is already over a dollar more expensive than<br />the average last year (around $2.89 last year<br />versus $4.01 this year). Dropping all the way<br />down to $3 may be very difficult within a couple<br />of months. The conflict with Iran does not seem<br />to be getting much better, especially after the<br />failed ceasefire, according to a CBS News article<br />published on September 11th, 2026, and Ayatollah<br />sees no incentive to lowering gas prices making it<br />very difficult for gas to be under $3.","Michelle Villanueva (35%): After listening to<br />the arguments brought up in class, I lowered my<br />prediction from 40% to 35% that Ben & Jerryâs<br />will release a completely new flavor by Nov. 19.<br />One argument that stood out to me was that Ben &<br />Jerryâs does not usually release many brand-new<br />flavors during the September-to-November period.<br />They tend to release more new flavors in the<br />spring and summer, while the fall is more likely<br />to bring back existing seasonal flavors. I also<br />became less confident because Ben & Jerryâs has<br />already released several new flavors this year,<br />including Razz Up!, and there have not been any<br />clear teasers or announcements for another new<br />flavor yet. However, I am keeping my prediction at<br />35% instead of going much lower because they have<br />been releasing new flavors every few months this<br />year, so I still think there is a realistic chance<br />they surprise us with another release before Nov.<br />19.","Michelle Villanueva (55%): After listening to<br />the arguments brought up in class, I raised<br />my prediction from 40% to 55% that Guillermo<br />Rodriguez will make it to the fifth week of<br />Dancing with the Stars. One thing that stood out<br />to me was that the competition is split between<br />50% judgesâ scores and 50% audience votes, and<br />even though Guillermo received a very low score<br />of 10 out of 30, he still survived the first<br />elimination. That shows that his fan support could<br />make up for some of his weaknesses as a dancer.<br />Someone also brought up contestants like Andy<br />Richter and Vinny Guadagnino, who consistently<br />scored near the bottom but still made it much<br />farther because viewers kept voting for them.<br />Another point that made me more confident was that<br />Guillermoâs partner, Witney Carson, has reportedly<br />taken 12 of her last 14 partners to at least Week<br />5, so her experience and fan base could also help<br />him. However, I am only at 55% because Guillermo<br />still has one of the lowest scores in the<br />
333competition, and Witneyâs pregnancy could become<br />a factor as the season continues. Overall, I now<br />think his popularity gives him a slightly better<br />chance than not of making it to Week 5.","Michelle Villanueva (10%): I predict a 10% chance<br />that Justin Trudeau and Katy Perry will be engaged<br />by Nov. 19. Their relationship does seem serious.<br />They have been together for over a year, they have<br />met each others children, and she has publicly<br />described him as the âlove of my life.â However,<br />I am keeping my prediction low because there<br />are only about two months until the prediction<br />deadline and there have been no credible reports<br />that an engagement or proposal is being planned. I<br />also looked at Polymarket, where traders currently<br />give them only about an 10-11% chance of being<br />engaged by the end of 2026, making it even less<br />likely in 2 months","Michelle Villanueva (5%): After listening to<br />the arguments brought up in class, I lowered my<br />prediction to 5% that regular gas at the Golden<br />Pantry on Prince and Barber will fall below $3<br />by Nov. 19. One thing that stood out to me was<br />that the price there was around $3.99, while the<br />Georgia average was around $4.04, meaning the<br />price would need to fall by about a full dollar<br />in only two months. I also became less confident<br />after hearing that gas prices usually fall much<br />more slowly than they rise, and that even if crude<br />oil prices dropped, it could take several weeks<br />for that decrease to show up at the pump. Someone<br />also pointed out that Golden Pantry is connected<br />with Shell and is in a very convenient location<br />near campus, which could keep its prices slightly<br />higher than other stations. With the ongoing<br />conflict affecting oil markets and no clear sign<br />of a major price drop, I think getting below $3 by<br />Nov. 19 is very unlikely.","Parker Buckroyd (20%): Over the past 5 years,<br />Ben and Jerry's has launched a series of new ice<br />cream flavors from August to November targeted<br />on flavors and themes promoting civic duty and<br />participation in that year's election. This year,<br />they released Razz Up! in July, which featured<br />special voting themed packaging and messaging.<br />This launch leads me to believe that since Ben<br />and Jerry's has launched this ice cream already,<br />there is a 20% chance they release another flavor<br />during this time frame. This estimate is supported<br />by the companyâs recent release history. Ben and<br />Jerryâs averages 6 new flavor releases per year<br />over the past 5 years. In 2026, 5 new flavors have<br />already been announced. Additionally, during the<br />comparable September 15th-November 19th period,<br />Ben and Jarryâs launched a new flavor during<br />this period in only one of the past five years.<br />This produces an additional backing of â
or 20%<br />chance. The company most commonly re-releases<br />flavors during the holidays, like mint or pumpkin,<br />therefore further signifying that new holiday<br />flavors are at low odds of being released.","Parker Buckroyd (37%): Guillermo and his pro<br />partner, Witney Carson, scored one of the lowest<br />scores in the show's history on the premier<br />night of Dancing with the Stars. But, DWTS does<br />not simply take your raw judges' percentage and<br />average it with your percentage of fan votes, they<br />convert both judges' scores and audience votes<br />into rankings, then combine the two rankings.<br />He is purely relying on fan votes to push him to<br />week 5, which eventually when people become less<br />bought in to the show, will dwindle. This puts my<br />prediction at 37% that he will be on the show for<br />week 5.","Parker Buckroyd (15%): Katy Perry and Justin<br />Trudeau have been dating for about 14 months. On<br />average, couples in the United States date for<br />about 2.5 to 3.3 years before getting engaged.<br />With that being said, Katy and Justin are older in<br />age, speeding up the average timeline to to 12 to<br />24 months total. With no paparazi reports of ring<br />shopping, or any other strong indicating proof<br />besides the window of older couples, I predict<br />there is a 15% chance that they are engaged by<br />November 19th.","Parker Buckroyd (5%): The AAA Fuel Prices portal<br />lists the average regular gas price in Georgia<br />at $4.02 per gallon as of September 14, 2026.<br />The price of gas has floated around this price,<br />dropping to a low of $3.80 in August. The war<br />in Iran, and refinery constraints, has held the<br />national average for a gallon of gas to $4.29.<br />This gas station is also in a popular location,<br />making its convenience drive pricing further. With<br />this, I forecast that there is a 5% chance that<br />gas will cost less than $3 at the Golden Pantry on<br />Prince and Barber on or before November 19.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (50%): Considering the<br />explanation given in class, then it is more likely<br />in my opinion that a new flavor before November<br />19th will be in the Downtown Athens location,<br />considering holiday season is upon us, usually<br />this type of business releases new flavors during<br />the holiday season.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (40%): Evaluating<br />Guillermo Rodriguez's chances of reaching the<br />fifth week of Dancing with the Stars Season 35<br />involves balancing his major popularity as a<br />beloved Jimmy Kimmel Live! fixture paired with<br />professional partner Witney Carson against the<br />traditional trajectory of novelty and comedy<br />contestants on the show. On one hand, late-night<br />television sidekicks often command substantial<br />fanbases and high name recognition, which<br />routinely translates into enough public text and<br />online votes to survive the initial few rounds<br />of eliminations, even with lower technical scores<br />from the judges. On the other hand, Season 35<br />features a competitive lineup including strong<br />performers like Tyler Cameron and Harry Shum Jr.<br />As the weeks progress, the competition naturally<br />shifts away from pure popularity toward baseline<br />dance capability.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (35%): While Justin<br />Trudeau and Katy Perry have experienced a<br />high-profile, rapidly deepening relationship<br />since mid-2025, recently describing each other as<br />each other's missing piece, a formal engagement<br />by November 19 remains statistically less likely<br />than not. The couple has been publicly open about<br />their bond, with insiders and recent profiles<br />highlighting mutual commitment. However, given<br />that Perry recently navigated a high-profile<br />separation from Orlando Bloom and both figures<br />manage intense international schedules, a sudden<br />engagement announcement within the next two months<br />compresses a very fast timeline. While holiday or<br />late-year announcements are common in celebrity<br />culture, an engagement window before November 19<br />is very unlikely.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (8%): After the lecture,<br />I can say that the probability of regular gas<br />costing less than $3 at the Golden Pantry. In<br />Athens, the last time it was under $3, it was<br />2023. It's been about $3 a gallon, so it is highly<br />unlikely that it will be less than $3. What's<br />compelling about this is the war going on in the<br />Middle East. As the Houthis in Yemen and Iran has<br />control over the Strait of Hormuz, it is highly<br />unlikely that this will happen.","Sarah Gregory (20%): I have not been able to find<br />new flavors being released in-store specifically<br />in the past 5 years. Also, i have not seen any<br />recent marketing on social media that suggest<br />a new flavor coming soon. Ben and Jerry's last<br />released their new flavor, Razz up, in July<br />of 2026. Which is a flavor focused on voter<br />mobilization. I believe they will stay focused on<br />this flavor throughout the midterms this year. On<br />an annual basis they release a Pumpkin Cheesecake<br />flavor for the fall. They also release seasonal<br />flavors that are limited edition and exclusive for<br />that year as well.","Sarah Gregory (45%): I believe Guillermo Rodriguez<br />will make it to the fifth week of Dancing with<br />the Stars this season. Another contestant similar<br />to Guillermo was Andy Ritcher. He was older than<br />most of the male contestants, but the fans were<br />attracted to his charismatic personality. Also,<br />the cast is much larger this season, increasing<br />the likelihood of Guillermo holding on until<br />the fifth week. He survived week one, where a<br />much younger and better performer was sent home<br />before him. On the other hand, last season, Corey<br />Feldman was sent home during the second week of<br />the season. He was also an older competitor. Corey<br />was not as well-liked among the fans due to past<br />controversy.","Sarah Gregory (20%): Katy Perry has been engaged<br />twice before, to Russell Brand and Orlando Bloom.<br />Her relationship with Orlando Bloom lasted nine<br />years. Shortly after their relationship ended, she<br />met Justin Trudeau. Her breakup with Orlando Bloom<br />was relatively amicable. Justin Trudeauâs past<br />divorce made major headlines due to his public<br />status as Canadaâs head of state at the time. They<br />have both publicly noted that their current focus<br />is blending their families. I believe it is more<br />probable that they will get engaged at the start<br />of next year rather than by November 19. Although<br />their relationship appears serious, their focus on<br />blending their families suggests that they may be<br />taking their time before getting engaged.","Sarah Gregory (5%): I believe there is little to<br />no way our gas will below $3 a gallon. I found<br />that the last time the average price of regular<br />gas in Georgia dropped under $3 a gallon was in<br />late December 2025, when the state average hit a<br />low of $2.62 per gallon on December 29, 2025. This<br />past May-June gas remained above $4 a gallon for<br />roughly 6 weeks. It is uncommon for gas prices to<br />drop by 2 dollars in the span of a few months.","Slate Jones (30%): They have already dropped a<br />flavor to politically rally people in July with<br />Razz Up, and they do not have a strong history of<br />dropping flavors in the fall as that is not peak<br />ice cream season. They tend to rely on season<br />flavors, pumpkin cheesecake primarily, to drive up<br />their fall numbers.","Slate Jones (25%): Guillermo received the 2nd<br />worse score of anyone in the history of dwts.<br />While he has a lot of audience support, his scores<br />will likely remain low due to his lack of ability.<br />The last few contestants that got far due to<br />audience votes still had at least middling judge<br />scores. He may get carried by Kimmel support,<br />as Sean Spicer was able to get very far with<br />republican support, but his judge ratings were<br />decent.","Slate Jones (25%): there are only 2 months<br />left for them to get engaged. Katy Perry's last<br />engagement began after Orlando Bloom and she were<br />dating for 3 years on-and-off. While Katy Perry<br />and Trudeau have been dating for around 14 months,<br />and most divorced people get married relatively<br />quickly compared to people who have never been<br />married.","Slate Jones (0%): There really is just no way<br />it goes down that much, FRED states that gas<br />prices notoriously go down slowly, while they go<br />up rapidly. gas is already at $4 at that golden<br />pantry, which with only a 2 month window to go<br />down 25%, seems to be essentially impossible with<br />the current war in Iran and Trump saying that<br />he doesnt plan on the war being over before the<br />midterms.","Will Steiner (15%): Having cleared up what<br />exactly qualifies as a new flavor, I'm a lot less<br />confident one will be released. The winter is<br />the slow season for ice cream, and they're much<br />more likely to bring back an old popular flavor<br />than they are premiere a brand-new one. It's too<br />expensive to release new ice cream flavors when<br />there isn't a market to currently buy them, and<br />Ben and Jerry's already released a flavor for the<br />fall. All these signs point to no new ice cream<br />flavors releasing.","Will Steiner (40%): I have never seen an episode<br />of Dancing With The Stars in my life, so it's<br />possible I'm missing something, but it seems<br />like Rodriguez is held up entirely by audience<br />hype right now. Unless he improves quickly and<br />significantly, it seems like he's on the chopping<br />block. While his terrible performance has become a<br />fan favorite, that type of enthusiasm doesn't hold<br />for very long, and it all depends on whether Jimmy<br />Kimmel's audience and fan enthusiasm can sustain<br />him long enough to eke his way into the fifth<br />week.","Will Steiner (8%): Prediction markets have<br />them being engaged by the end of the year at 11<br />percent, and in cases like these, insider trading<br />(or lack thereof) typically makes these pretty<br />trustworthy. Since our cutoff is earlier than the<br />markets, I think it's even less likely. They've<br />only been dating officially for about a year, and<br />both have busy schedules that may interfere.","Will Steiner (7%): Given our discussion in class,<br />I think it would take some extreme circumstances<br />to push gas prices this low. The sticky nature<br />of prices means that the Strait of Hormuz would<br />have to be open even earlier than November 19, and<br />everything at this point seems to indicate that<br />will not be the case. There's still potential for<br />something extraordinary to happen, but I doubt it.","Ziyada Rakhimova (20%): I'm expecting a lower<br />probability of Ben & Jerry's releasing a new<br />flavor between now and November 19 just because<br />from past time trends, they've released their new<br />flavors every 2-3 months apart and peaking and<br />slowly falling off closer to the end of the summer<br />months. Also recently Ben & Jerry's released their<br />'Razzle Up' flavor in honor of the elections, so<br />based on the past 5 years forecast of us barely<br />getting a new flavor, if any, there appears to<br />be a lower chance now. I do still hold hope and<br />believe there is a good chance they might release<br />a fall limited-edition batch, but the chances<br />don't seem high as we're coming up on a slow<br />season now.","Ziyada Rakhimova (35%): Guillermo Rodriguez seems<br />to be a fan favorite, but I'm more concerned about<br />his partner, Witney Carson. Witney is currently<br />pregnant and is likely to eventually drop out<br />when she reaches her second-third trimester. The<br />pair also got one of the lowest voted scores of<br />the season during the past week, so unless they<br />majorly improve, I don't know if they'll make it.","Ziyada Rakhimova (35%): The chances are low<br />due to the mixed bag of factors that surround<br />Justin Trudeau and Katy Perry including past<br />relationships, children, and their own lives and<br />careers. I don't believe there's a good chance<br />they'll be engaged anytime soon just due to the<br />national average of how long it takes for people<br />to get engage, which is around 2.5-3.3 years.","Ziyada Rakhimova (10%): I had my original<br />probability at 15%, but I am revising it to 10%<br />just because of the politics and time back-logging<br />of it all. It doesn't seem likely that gas prices<br />will go below $3 per gallon before November 19 due<br />to the trade and war relations with Iran in the<br />Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, I learned today<br />that even if gas prices were to lower, it would<br />take on average 3 weeks to show up. So even if<br />in some miraculous way, things settled down, it<br />would take forever for it to show in that large of<br />a price hitch. Gas prices have traditionally been<br />seen to go up quicker than they'd go down."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"
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333 334</div> 335</div> 336</section> 337<section id="week-5-922" class="level2"> 338<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="week-5-922">Week 5 (9/22)</h2> 339<div class="cell"> 340<div class="cell-output-display"> 341<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-ce295e570d81f5876fbf" style="width:100%;height:464px;"></div>
342<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-ce295e570d81f5876fbf">{"x":{"data":[{"x":[0.10000000000000001,0.17000000000000001,0.25],"y":[1.0306652063876391,2.1065967171266675,2.9523546594008803],"text":["Crowd (10%)","Crowd (17%)","Crowd (25%)"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Crowd,2)","legendgroup":"(Crowd,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.01,0.12,0.20000000000000001],"y":[0.98943948864936826,1.9643989071436225,3.0043899185769258],"text":["Joe Ornstein (1%): I struggled whether to round<br />this down to 0% or up to 1%. This would be a clear<br />act of war, and there are no indications that<br />the PLA is planning something like this within<br />the next two months. While it's clear that Xi<br />desires a reunification with Taiwan by the 100th<br />anniversary of the PRC, we're talking a timeline<br />of years, not months. Accidents can happen,<br />but crossing the 12-mile boundary would be an<br />unprecedented screw-up.","Joe Ornstein (12%): If yes, this would essentially<br />constitute a \"reopening\" of the Strait, requiring<br />a sufficiently credible ceasefire commitment from<br />the Iranians that ships feel confident passing<br />through. I am pessimistic that the Iranians<br />would offer terms that the Trump administration<br />is willing/able to accept in the run-up to<br />the midterm elections, but I don't think it's<br />*completely* implausible.","Joe Ornstein (20%): This would be an awfully<br />tight timeline, requiring MARTA to complete safety<br />testing and submit to GDOT for approval within the<br />next 3-4 weeks. This is certainly possible, and<br />there is little information one way or another to<br />suggest that they will. But given the project's<br />repeated delays, the safest bet is that the<br />delays will continue. After missing the World Cup<br />opening, there's no particular pressure to get the<br />cars on the tracks by mid-November."],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","legendgroup":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.040000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.29999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.17999999999999999,0.32000000000000001,0.050000000000000003,0.14999999999999999,0.17000000000000001,0.12,0.20000000000000001,0.29999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.17000000000000001,0.25,0.10000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.20000000000000001,0.029999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.25,0.10000000000000001,0.40000000000000002,0.20000000000000001,0.029999999999999999,0.29999999999999999,0.28000000000000003,0.10000000000000001,0.20000000000000001,0.25,0.20000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.029999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.25,0.029999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.29999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.29999999999999999,0.40000000000000002,0.14999999999999999,0.55000000000000004,0.050000000000000003,0.23000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.14999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.20000000000000001,0.29999999999999999,0.25,0.20000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.34999999999999998,0.20000000000000001,0.27000000000000002,0.029999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.12,0.20000000000000001,0.25,0.050000000000000003,0.050000000000000003,0.33000000000000002,0.14999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.20000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.050000000000000003,0.050000000000000003,0.029999999999999999,0.070000000000000007,0.13,0.10000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.10000000000000001,0.25,0.20000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.17000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.29999999999999999,0.10000000000000001,0.25,0.29999999999999999,0.13,0.23000000000000001,0.40000000000000002,0.080000000000000002,0.29999999999999999,0.5,0.10000000000000001,0.29999999999999999,0.29999999999999999,0.050000000000000003,0.14999999999999999,0.14999999999999999,0.050000000000000003,0.070000000000000007,0.17999999999999999,0.34999999999999998,0.25,0.10000000000000001],"y":[1.0394588940776885,2.0544873154349625,3.0664826908707621,1.0244433145225047,1.9202305657230319,3.0033378535
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342November 19, 2026. Entering this 12-nautical-mile<br />threshold would represent a severe military<br />escalation, and this would deviate entirely from<br />China's established gray-zone warfare strategy.<br />If China did send aircraft into this threshold,<br />it would likely result in a major escalation of<br />the conflict and could result in retaliation from<br />Taiwan. China would likely prefer to avoid this<br />escalation, so it will probably not send aircraft<br />within 12 miles of Taiwan's coast.","Bain Fulcher (18%): Current data show that the<br />7-day average is well below 30 vessels per day.<br />Daily visible traffic has dropped to the single<br />digits, with counts frequently ranging between 3<br />and 7 vessels per day this month. Reaching a 7-day<br />average above 30 would require a dramatic shift<br />in regional security, the lifting or breakdown of<br />current naval constraints, or major developments<br />in the war. It is unlikely these changes will<br />occur before November 19th.","Bain Fulcher (32%): The train cars were supposed<br />to be operational in June, but their launch was<br />postponed due to the need for more safety testing<br />and no new timeline for when they will go into<br />service has been released. Each train must travel<br />4,000 miles without fault before the paperwork can<br />be submitted, and we do not know how many miles<br />they have completed. According to the Atlanta<br />Journal-Constitution, MARTA has yet to submit to<br />the Georgia Department of Transportation the final<br />paperwork to certify the trains are safe and ready<br />for passengers. This paperwork can take up to 30<br />days for state regulators to sign off on, so it<br />is unlikely that they will be in service before<br />November 19th.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (5%): The likelihood that<br />Chinese military aircrafts pass within 12 nautical<br />miles of Taiwanâs coast is unlikely but not<br />impossible. Twelve nautical miles particularly<br />sits at a confrontational distance, considering<br />that Taiwan's defense minister has said that<br />entry within 12 nautical miles would trigger<br />the exercise of self-defense rights. However,<br />Chinese fleets are making routine transit around<br />Taiwan, and evidence shows that China might be<br />strengthening its military extensions stationed<br />close to Taiwan. It is still a very close<br />distance, which is why it would be bold to cross<br />12 miles specifically, and why I put it a bit<br />lower than not.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (15%): Currently, the Strait<br />of Hormuz has about 5-6 vessels transiting it<br />per day as a 7-day average. Individual counts<br />range from 2 to 8 vessels daily. This is already<br />very low compared to our target, 30 vessels.<br />Considering the conflict currently surrounding<br />the Strait, the number of transiting vessels might<br />even decrease, rather than increasing. Despite<br />this, there is still about 2 months until our<br />deadline, and the 30-vessel threshold for a 7-day<br />average does not need to be maintained. This being<br />said, it is quite unlikely that it will surpass 30<br />vessels, let alone achieve 30.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (17%): My opinion on the<br />MARTA rollout has changed drastically after<br />hearing everybodyâs opinions in class. Despite the<br />trains already being in Atlanta, MARTA promised<br />to release them before the end of the year, and<br />already pushed back release dates, I think that<br />it is pretty unlikely for them to unveil operating<br />trains by November 19. According to the class,<br />the train cars have not yet been submitted to GDOT<br />for inspection, which needs to happen within 30<br />days of unveiling running trains. The 4,000 mile<br />faultless distance minimum per car is also very<br />questionable considering it could take up to 3<br />months to test. MARTA is also being audited by<br />the federal government, the new CEO is okay with<br />delaying the trains until heâs very certain, and<br />the FIFA world cup was terrible for MARTA.","Brian Sadenwasser (12%): This would be a very<br />bold move by the Chinese government. Taiwan has<br />stated that they would treat an act like this as<br />a \"first strike.\" This means they could respond<br />with force. With that being known, I doubt that<br />China would risk elevating this conflict to that<br />level. I would think that other world powers<br />would get involved, which China would likely<br />try to avoid. Taking into account the fact that<br />China has tried pushing the boundaries of their<br />actions, I adjusted slightly upwards. Source:<br />https://thediplomat.com/2026/01/chinas-taiwan-drills-are-crossing-a-new-line/","Brian Sadenwasser (20%): I looked at the 7 day<br />average around important dates during the war. I<br />found that the 14-Point MOU between Iran and the<br />US was a major event that led to the number rising<br />just over 30. I used that as a benchmark for how<br />big of a step towards peace Iran and the US would<br />have to take. Looking at the news from today, it<br />seems as though Iran wants certain conditions to<br />
342be met before they will seriously negotiate. There<br />is communication through countries like Qatar<br />and Oman, so I think there is a chance a major<br />diplomatic step occurs, but I think it's unlikely.<br />Adjusted slightly down after class discussion","Brian Sadenwasser (30%): According to AJC articles<br />from June of 2026, there were safety and testing<br />delays, which pushed back the opening of the new<br />train cars. As of June 2026, there is no timeline<br />for the trains to enter service. Because the issue<br />is testing, I believe the issue could be resolved<br />relatively quickly before the Nov 19 deadline.<br />Because of this, I believe this is question is<br />a near coin flip. The fact that the AJC has not<br />published any updates made me decrease my odds<br />from 50 to 40. I adjusted down from 40 to 30<br />because of the length of administrative time it<br />would take to get the trains operational (4,000<br />miles of successful testing as well as the 30 day<br />GDOT waiting period).","Brianna Speizer (10%): I think there is a very low<br />chance that Chinese military aircraft will pass<br />within 12 miles of Taiwanâs coast before November<br />12th. Data from 2026 shows that the flight paths<br />so far remain restricted to international airspace<br />buffers. Similarly, Taiwanese officials have<br />expressed concern over aircraft getting closer to<br />24 miles, a decent bit larger than 12. Crossing<br />the 12-mile mark would constitute a direct<br />violation of airspace that Taiwan's military is<br />ordered to defend with force.","Brianna Speizer (17%): I do not believe that the<br />7 day average number of vessels transiting the<br />Strait of Hormuz will be higher than 30 at any<br />point before November 19. Shipfinder shows that<br />the number per day has been between 3 and 7 ships<br />per day. If we multiply the median by 7, (5x7), we<br />would have an average base of 35 ships. However,<br />Reuters also found that the ten day average is<br />between 10-18 ships. Meaning that it would be much<br />less likely that this would increase to 30 ships<br />within a smaller window of time.","Brianna Speizer (25%): I do not think there is a<br />high probability of AJC reporting that MARTAâs new<br />train cars are operational before November 19th.<br />The trains were supposed to start on June 4th in<br />time for the World Cup. The AJC posted that there<br />was no timeline for when they would be available,<br />and MARTA had yet to submit to the GDOT the final<br />paperwork to certify the trains. This would be<br />the first step in the process that can take up to<br />30 days for state regulators to sign off. AJCâs<br />Politically Georgia Podcast discussed how Keisha<br />Lance Bottoms promised to devote funding to MARTA,<br />and that the MARTA CEO was talking about how the<br />state needs to start investing. Speaker Burns also<br />announced that there would be a Blue Ribbon Study<br />Committee on Transportation Infrastructure and<br />Vehicle Regulation which will evaluate Georgiaâs<br />transportation networks and regulations to improve<br />efficiency. However, no changes to laws or funding<br />could be made to this funding until the next<br />legislative session.","Caitlyn McMullen (10%): My initial forecast<br />was 25, so I am lowering it a bit after class<br />discussion. Directly escalating the situation by<br />violating the 12 mi radius is not probable. China<br />has been demonstrating a gray area strategy for<br />years and that is not likely to change in the<br />next 2 months. Additionally, China seems to be<br />primarily interested in economic relations right<br />now, and entering a full fledged conflict would<br />not bode well for them, economically.","Caitlyn McMullen (35%): I am lowering my initial<br />
342prediction by a lot after the class discussion. I<br />realized that we were just supposed to be looking<br />at PortWatch which skewed my first prediction.<br />Considering the slim chance of the conflict<br />ending as well as the hostility between Iran<br />and U.S., it is not probable that the Strait of<br />Hormuz will open up to more vessels. There is<br />also about a 2-3 week delay that someone mentioned<br />in class, which makes this highly unprobable by<br />the Nov 19 deadline. I am leaving some buffer<br />room in my prediction because there was one day<br />that PortWatch reported 30 vessels, so it is not<br />completely impossible.","Caitlyn McMullen (20%): I am keeping my<br />probability the same as my initial prediction<br />and for the same reasons. It is not probable<br />that there will be train cars will be up and<br />running by nov 19 but it is also not impossible.<br />Since the delay in June, there could have been<br />lots of internal fixes, but with the GDOT 30 day<br />delay, that would mean an extremely tight turn<br />around before the deadline. Th testing needs to<br />be fault-free, which it has not completed yet,<br />and until then, they cannot complete the forms to<br />GDOT- which is then followed by a 30 day period.<br />The testing involves 4000 miles per car, which<br />can take weeks to complete. There is also a new<br />CEO of MARTA that publicly said he would rather<br />delay then to have safety problems to keep the<br />reputation good. So the overall probability is<br />low.","Carter Ray (3%): This would be a massive violation<br />of Taiwanese sovereignty, and could signal the<br />start of a serious military encounter between<br />Taiwan and China. Being within 12 miles would mean<br />that the Chinese aircraft would be in restricted<br />airspace, giving Taiwan the justification to shoot<br />it down, causing a war. According to research,<br />the closest a place has been is ~24-31 nautical<br />miles off the coast of Taiwan, which even then is<br />a restricted area.","Carter Ray (10%): There is almost no chance that<br />the Strait of Hormuz will be reopening prior to<br />November 19th. Even during calm periods of the<br />war, the 7-day average has not been over 30 since<br />March. Similar to other questions regarding the<br />Iran War, the same logic applies that Iran will<br />keep the strait closed for the foreseeable future.<br />I am revising my estimate up to 10% due to the<br />possibility that other nations other than the US<br />could make a deal with Iran.","Carter Ray (25%): So far, Stadler has already<br />blown past multiple deadlines for their supposed<br />submittal date, going all the way back to 2023.<br />In publicly available meetings, neither Stadler<br />nor MARTA made mention of the CQ400 train cars in<br />September or August of 2026. In order to fulfill<br />this requirement, MARTA would have to submit the<br />cars for approval by October 19th, 2026, which<br />certainly seems possible, but still less than<br />likely.","Celina Simone (10%): This is highly unlikely<br />considering that Chinese interactions with Taiwan<br />is in at a three year low. It also is trying to<br />present itself as a global diplomatic and economic<br />power, in the midst of various conflicts around<br />the world. They are likely to continue pressuring<br />Taiwan, but are highly unlikely to cross within<br />twelve miles which would further escalate<br />conflict.","Celina Simone (40%): With midterms upcoming this<br />does put pressure on the excutive to negotiate a<br />deal with Iran, however they have failed to do so<br />in the past and there is little motivation for the<br />IRI to expedite negotiations. It should also be<br />noted that during the President of Iran's address<br />to the United Nations GBM when he accused the US<br />of terrorism and disrupting global order, the US<br />repersentation walked out and refused to hear the<br />speech through.","Celina Simone (20%): The Georgia Department of<br />Transportation thirty day window is alarming,<br />however there is still time until October 20th for<br />transit paperwork to be completed. However there<br />was been little public relation materials to tease<br />the new train car arrival, despite much public<br />anticipation and no timeline has been dropped. The<br />stage of testing we believe the cars are in takes<br />between 2 week - 4 months, however there is little<br />clarity from MARTA what stage of testing we're<br />in. It should also be noted that in the middle<br />of testing the Georgia Transportation Efficiency<br />Authority (GTEA) was created and this impacts<br />
342approval processes.","Christopher Heyl (3%): Based on discussions in<br />class today I have decided to revise down my<br />initial forecast even more. China simply is just<br />not in any position to move aggressively towards<br />Taiwan given its continued posturing as being a<br />country that wishes to promote peace and stability<br />to global markets. Perhaps in the next decade<br />this may change, but at least for right now any<br />violation of Taiwan's airspace seems unlikely.","Christopher Heyl (30%): Based on much of the<br />breaking news across the past week including the<br />UNGA meetings and a current Reuters report of<br />ongoing discussions to reopen the strait, I have<br />decided to revise up my initial prediction by 20<br />percent. There is also an unverified report right<br />now that says 60 ships transited the strait today.<br />If this report comes out to be true, then there<br />is a real possibility, though still more unlikely<br />than not, that the strait can be opened within the<br />
342next month.","Christopher Heyl (28%): Based on discussions in<br />class today, it seems unlikely that the MARTA<br />trains will be ready and operational by November<br />19. The biggest tell is the fact that their<br />website still has not been updated since June, and<br />with no submission of their safety information to<br />be approved by GDOT, which takes around 30 days to<br />review, it seems unlikely they can meet a November<br />19 deadline. Perhaps December, but probably not<br />November.","Dean McDonald (10%): After class discussion, it<br />is reasonable to conclude that China will not<br />pass within 12 miles of Taiwan. The economic<br />consequences alone of a possible conflict preclude<br />even China from attacking Taiwan, and the complex<br />military system and the little China stands to<br />gain has too many unknowns for their military to<br />risk.","Dean McDonald (20%): After class discussion,<br />I have drastically lowered my prediction as I<br />overestimated Trump's unpredictability, and his<br />actual capability to effect a change without<br />bowing down to Iran. The unwillingness of either<br />side to come to an agreement and the fact that<br />on only three days since the war started that<br />the benchmark was hit, means that there is only a<br />small chance that anything will happen.","Dean McDonald (25%): MARTA has refrained from<br />any updates at all on the train cars since the<br />World Cup, and the minimum 30 day period between<br />submission of the cars and GDOT approval means<br />that MARTA would have to submit within a few weeks<br />(unlikely) of right now to roll out the cars.","Denton Alexander (20%): According to the UN<br />Conventions of the Law and Sea, 12 nautical<br />miles off of a country's coast is included as its<br />territory. Apparently China continuously practices<br />closing off every access point to Taiwan, and<br />people believe that the veil between practice<br />and the real thing is thinning. Over the years<br />there have been many aircrafts and ships that<br />have gone near the island of Taiwan, and China<br />has continuously said they will take the island by<br />force if necessary. It seems that the last major<br />military flyby was in March of this year, but I am<br />unsure if it was within 12 miles. I do not think<br />there will be any stark movement before the US<br />election since I am sure the Chinese government<br />wants all the people who back Trump to win<br />offices, and if there is a light shone on a Trump<br />failure that might decrease that likelihood.","Denton Alexander (15%): The seven-day average has<br />been below 10 since July 14th (2 months ago), and<br />below 30 since July 1st (almost 3 months ago).<br />This was around the start of the Strait of Hormuz<br />block, which Iran has held strong. Since March<br />5th, only 3 days have had a seven-day average of<br />30 or more. Iran says that they could reopen the<br />passage within 7 days if the US lifts the naval<br />block. This morning I saw gas everywhere was<br />over $4/gal, and people are going to continue to<br />raise more and more hell about it. I think there<br />is a possibility that the US will lift the naval<br />block, but I think Iran would hold on longer to<br />the Strait of Hormuz block to punish and \"teach a<br />lesson\".","Denton Alexander (15%): These train cars were<br />planned to go into service in 2025, then early<br />2026, then Spring 2026, then in June, and they<br />have been postponed every time. A large reason<br />for the new cars was the 2026 World Cup games<br />that were played in Atlanta. Obviously, they were<br />not ready before then. The agency where the cars<br />are build is spending most of its time, it seems,<br />on replacing older cars rather than securing<br />Atlanta's new ones. Last August MARTA threatened<br />a damage claim of $1 million. Also, after the last<br />postponement, GDOT apparently began inspecting<br />them. There have always been complaints about<br />GDOT, however. I do not believe there are any<br />elections pertaining to people who have a say.","Dylan Goff (3%): I stand by my intial number. I<br />think china knows that the current administration<br />would see an action like that as a declariation of<br />war. This conflict would devastate both countries<br />and leave everyone off worse than they started.<br />In addition to this, china has a strong historical<br />precident of testing the bounds of taiwans<br />soveringity, but not to this extent","Dylan Goff (15%): I slightly changed my estimate<br />to about 5 points where I initially put it at<br />20. I did this because I didnt consider fully how<br />quickly that timeline needs to proceed in order<br />for an agreement to be made. There is absoluley<br />no wiggle room on that timeline, so I needed to<br />drop a couple of points. However, the 15 percent<br />does adequatley incorperate the odds that another<br />country makes a shipping deal in the time frame","Dylan Goff (25%): I dropped my intial forcast<br />because of the change in the definition of when<br />the event will hit. While I do think that its<br />likley that there is peliminary reporting on the<br />new train cars, Im not confident they will be<br />available for public use. However, its still one<br />of those things where they may just drop it out of<br />nowhere. Theyve been doing saftey inspections for<br />months and theres no real good data about that.<br />Because of this I stuck by a certain degree of<br />uncertainty.","Edy Thompson (3%): I think the chance that Chinese<br />military aircraft pass within 12 nautical miles<br />
342of Taiwanâs coast before November 19 is very low.<br />The 12 nautical miles around Taiwan count as its<br />own airspace, and Taiwan has said it will shoot at<br />any Chinese military plane that flies in. Chinese<br />planes have gotten close but stop short. I put<br />this at a 3% chance","Edy Thompson (10%): I think this is very unlikely.<br />The 7-day average number of vessels has been<br />between about 7-15 for months since Iranâs<br />February closure. There are occasional spikes,<br />but nothing close to 30. For this to happen, there<br />would need to be a real ceasefire or reopening<br />deal, not just gradual improvement. So Iâd put<br />this at 10%.","Edy Thompson (30%): I donât think it's very likely<br />that the new MARTA train cars will be operational<br />before November 19 but it could happen. The<br />trains were originally supposed to start carrying<br />riders by June 4th, but now thereâs no date for<br />when they start. MARTAâs project page lists their<br />current status as âtesting,â and they are required<br />to tell Georgia DOT when the trains are safe 30<br />days before putting them in service, which hasnât<br />happened yet. Iâd put this at a 30% chance","Ella Vars (15%): The Chinese government seems to<br />be trying to be more business focused and avoid<br />war. Flying within 12 miles of Taiwanâs coast<br />would be a significant escalation beyond current<br />military activity and would possibly lead to war<br />with them. China shows no indication that they are<br />looking to start conflict, causing me to believe<br />the probability of 15%.","Ella Vars (10%): Due to the recent numbers of<br />vessels, I think this is extremely unlikely.<br />Especially considering that this requires a 7-day<br />average, even one day of massive volume increase<br />would not be enough to sway the average above 30.<br />Trump has already tried to make deals with the<br />Iranian government to no avail, so it is likely no<br />contract would be made that would allow for vessel<br />volume to increase.","Ella Vars (30%): I estimate an 40% probability<br />that the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports<br />MARTAâs new train cars as operational before<br />November 19. The AJC has closely followed the<br />train's rollout and previously reported delays<br />to their intended June 2026 launch, as well as<br />testing issues. The timeline for inspection and<br />approval is long, and the process has not begun,<br />which makes this very unlikely.","Eva Carnes (40%): China regularly conducts<br />military flights around Taiwan, however coming<br />within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan's coast would<br />likely lead to an escalation of the situation.<br />That 12 miles is still considered Taiwan's<br />property. If China invades, the likelihood of an<br />actual physical conflict increases, since China<br />would be initiating the first strike. China does<br />have plans of annexing Taiwan by 2027.","Eva Carnes (15%): The current average for number<br />of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is<br />still extremely low, reflecting around 5 vessels<br />passing through daily with some variance. The<br />conflict occurring in this region does not appear<br />to be improving, thus the amount of vessels that<br />Iran is allowing through the Strait will not<br />improve much. Especially to the point of allowing<br />the 7-day average rise to 30.","Eva Carnes (55%): MARTA had a planned launch in<br />June 2026 that was delayed due to significant<br />delays in testing of the cars. As of mid-June,<br />the AJC reported that MARTA had yet to submit the<br />Georgia DOT paperwork that can take up to 30 days<br />to process. MARTA cars must also travel 4000 miles<br />each to be approved which can take up to 3 months.<br />This information paired with the fact that Atlanta<br />is no longer in a rush to get these new trains<br />running brought my prediction from 65% to 55%.","Hailey Chae (5%): The PLA regularly crosses the<br />Taiwan Strait median line and enters Taiwanâs<br />ADIZ, but crossing the 12-mile boundary would be<br />a much more serious escalation because it would<br />enter Taiwanâs territorial airspace. Taiwanâs<br />Defense Minister Wellington Koo has said Taiwan<br />would exercise its right of self-defense if<br />a Chinese military aircraft entered within 12<br />nautical miles without permission. China has<br />increasingly operated closer to Taiwan, but it has<br />generally avoided this specific threshold.","Hailey Chae (23%): The main reason for the low<br />probability is that current traffic is nowhere<br />near 30. On September 21, Reuters reported that<br />only 17 commodity vessels transited over the<br />weekend, down from 37 the previous weekend.<br />Earlier in September, daily traffic fell into the<br />single digits, with only 3 vessels on September<br />16 and 4 on September 15. A current Polymarket<br />market gives less than a 1% chance that the 7-day<br />average will reach 30+ by September 30. However,<br />I don't think the probability should be close to<br />zero because 30 vessels is much lower than normal<br />prewar traffic. Before the conflict, roughly<br />130â140 ships per week were reported transiting<br />the strait in some Kpler data, while other<br />measures of commodity traffic were around 70 per<br />day. If there were a ceasefire or agreement to<br />reopen the strait, traffic could increase quickly<br />as ships that have been waiting to move begin<br />transiting.","Hailey Chae (35%): There are good reasons to<br />think this could happen because 4 train sets<br />are already in Atlanta, testing is underway,<br />operators have been trained, and MARTA still<br />says the first new train will enter service in<br />2026. However, I am keeping the probability below<br />50% because the project has repeatedly missed<br />its original deadlines, and there is still no<br />specific launch date. According to the AJC, the<br />trains must complete extensive testing, including<br />4,000 fault-free miles, before they can enter<br />service, and MARTA must complete the safety<br />certification process with GDOT, which includes<br />a 30-day notification period. On the other hand,<br />because the trains are already physically on<br />site and the AJC has followed the project very<br />closely, I think a successful launch would be very<br />likely to receive AJC coverage. The trains could<br />
342realistically enter service this fall, but the<br />project's history of delays and remaining safety<br />requirements make it more likely than not that<br />the deadline will be missed. I think the chances<br />of this happening are a little lower than a coin<br />toss. If the new MARTA trains do start running<br />with passengers, AJC will most likely report on<br />it. I lowered it a bit after class discussion.","Hannah Hartley (15%): Rather than declaring<br />a full-scale war, China likes to just barely<br />violate a restriction to see if the other powers<br />will restrict them. It seems that China isn't<br />wanting to push towards a war, and the severity<br />of the implications of going within the 12 mile<br />boundary make me increasingly less certain that<br />it will happen. It seems that Taiwan has security<br />agreements with many other powerful countries,<br />and I do not see see China wanting to start a war<br />right now.","Hannah Hartley (20%): Even if we were optimistic,<br />there would be a 2 week lag, so it would be close.<br />The point that the US already offered a large<br />amount of money, and it did not work, is a strong<br />point. I also think there is a significance of<br />midterms and needing 2 parties to make a deal. I<br />think Iran will make a point to not work with the<br />US until after the midterms.","Hannah Hartley (20%): The big events happening<br />without the train car updates are indicative<br />that there is no reason to speed this up. Also,<br />the lack of news updates about the progress, the<br />filing of paperwork, or reporting to GDOT makes<br />me feel that they will not send the paperwork<br />to the officials in time for the the Atlanta<br />Journal-Constitution to have a completed story<br />about operational train cars. Also, needing at<br />least 2 cars makes it less likely as well. Needing<br />4,000 fault-free miles of testing is also an<br />important factor.","Haven Priem (30%): I do not think that Chinese<br />military aircraft pass within 12 miles of Taiwan's<br />coast before November 19. This is because this<br />would be an act war because it is seen as a gray<br />zone meaning that in order for them to touch<br />this area it would mean that there was a lot of<br />conflict.","Haven Priem (25%): I do not think that the 7-day<br />average number of vessels transiting the Strait<br />of Hormuz be higher than 30 at any point before<br />November 19. This is because recently there has<br />been a decline in the amount of vessels going<br />through the stait. As well we are about to hit<br />a slower period so it's even less likely to<br />increase.","Haven Priem (20%): I do not think that this is<br />possible because atlanta is like very much known<br />for delaying and pushing project back. However<br />I will say that this summer because of the world<br />cup there was a push or motive to increase the<br />speed of getting project done but especially<br />with elections I do not see this being the top<br />priority.","Isabella Picciano (15%): In order for this to<br />occur, a Chinese military aircraft must pass<br />within 12 miles of Taiwanâs coast before November<br />19th. First, I started with the historical<br />base rate by asking how often Chinese military<br />aircraft get within 12 nautical miles of the<br />coast. There are multiple reports about Chinese<br />aircraft crossing Taiwan Straitâs median line<br />or entering the ADIZ (Air Defense Identification<br />Zone). According to The Straits Times, in June<br />2023, Chinese aircraft got within 24-nautical<br />miles of the coast of Taiwan. Reuters reported<br />two occurrences in April 2024 and May 2024 where<br />a Chinese warplane went about 40 nautical miles<br />from the coast. While these examples alone do not<br />meet the proximity threshold given to us, they<br />do provide a low historical base rate to further<br />build our prediction off of. One factor that<br />increases the probability is Chinese retaliation<br />against major arm sales or high profile official<br />visits they deem threaten their control over<br />Taiwan. In August of 2022 for example, Nancy<br />Pelosiâs visit was followed by Chinese operations<br />crossing the median line. Another example is<br />the December 2025 Justice Mission, a military<br />exercise conducted by the PLA (Peopleâs Liberation<br />Army) around Taiwan shortly after the United<br />States announced an $11.1 billion military sales<br />deal to Taiwan. Another major arms sale or high<br />profile visit occurs before November 19th could<br />prompt stronger, closer retaliation from China.<br />Another factor that increases the probability is<br />the Chinese surveillance drone that entered into<br />Taiwan controlled airspace, Pratas Islands, on<br />January 17th, 2026. Although Chinese intentions<br />for doing so vary, many analysts believe that<br />the country wanted to test Taiwanâs response,<br />radar tracking, and radio warning system. We<br />could make a reasonable inference that this may<br />lead to a more intrusive, close, aircraft attack.<br />One factor that decreases the probability is<br />diplomatic negotiations. In March 2026, the number<br />of Chinese military aircraft around Taiwan fell<br />sharply. Analysts from Reuters suggest that China<br />may have an incentive to avoid an airspace attack<br />if they want to reduce military and negotiation<br />pressure between the United States and China.<br />Secondly, China has other means of maintaining<br />pressure on Taiwan. According to the Associated<br />Press, Chinese naval activity continued during<br />March 2026 after the drop in aircraft activities.<br />Fewer flights however, does not automatically<br />mean reduced likelihood as in order for this<br />statement to be true, we only need one aircraft<br />to surpass the 12 nautical mile threshold off the<br />coast of Taiwan. Overall, I predict a 15% chance<br />this happens before November 19th due to the<br />historical examples I reviewed, the strength of<br />retaliation China has exerted thus far, diplomatic<br />negotiations and pressure from the United States,<br />and alternative methods that achieve the same<br />goal.","Isabella Picciano (35%): For this question to<br />be yes, the average daily number of vessels that<br />passes through the Strait of Hormuz must be higher<br />than 30 during one 7 day period before November<br />19th. I started by looking at the 7-day moving<br />
342average on IMF Portwatch for the Strait of Hormuz.<br />The 7 day moving average adds the daily vessel<br />counts over 7 days and divides that total by<br />7. In the past three months, the average number<br />of vessels exceeded 30 only once on June 29th,<br />2026 when it reached 32. Since then however, the<br />average has decreased to a consistent average of<br />3-6 vessels. This means that the average would<br />have to triple in order to exceed the threshold.<br />Something else to consider is PortWatchâs warning<br />regarding âGPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and vessels<br />going dark.â This can distort the actual number<br />of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz so<br />I think it's important to consider other factors<br />that would increase or decrease the probability<br />for this question. One factor that decreases<br />the probability are ongoing military engagements<br />and attacks. A New York Times Article details<br />the attacks from U.S. forces that have disabled<br />or destroyed Iranian tankers, and retaliatory<br />efforts from Iran on merchant ships. This can<br />significantly discourage vessels from passing<br />through due to the potential threat it imposes.<br />Although the U.S. and Iran have attempted to<br />negotiate this issue, the IEAâs September report<br />states that these negotiations are stalling,<br />further delaying the âprospect of a normalisation<br />of flows into next year.â Another consideration<br />decreasing the probability is insurance. Due to<br />the danger and risk posed from voyage into the<br />Strait of Hormuz at the moment, many leading<br />mutual marine insurers including Norwayâs Gard<br />and Skuld, the UKâs NorthStandard, the London<br />P&I Club, and the New York American Club, have<br />cancelled sending vessels into a region heavily<br />at risk for war activity. One consideration<br />that slightly increases my probability estimate<br />is the fact that the strait is a âChokepoint.â<br />Chokepoints are ânarrow channels along widely<br />used global sea routes that are critical to global<br />energy security.â Disruptions to chokepoints<br />result in the delay and increased prices subject<br />to concern. The lack of vessels and cargo<br />going through correlates with the temporarily<br />stalled supply delays and higher shipping costs,<br />especially with oil. If the conflict at the strait<br />of Hormuz worsens, there may be a higher chance<br />that successful negotiations solving this issue<br />occur. However, this pressure does not guarantee<br />an agreement as this past Thursday, a senior<br />Iranian figure said that Iran will not reopen<br />the Strait of Hormuz fully until President Trump<br />and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu<br />are removed from power. This further decreases<br />the probability that successful negotiations<br />are accomplished by November 19th and the 7 day<br />average number of vessels triples. For these<br />reasons, I predict a 35% chance of this question<br />resolving to be âyes.â","Isabella Picciano (20%): I started by looking<br />at the projectâs historical record. The AJC has<br />postponed the project four times since January<br />8th, 2026. This suggests that the announced dates<br />for the operational train cars should receive less<br />weight. As of August 19th, a MARTA spokesperson<br />from Wabe reported that the delay in June was due<br />to continuing proceedings for safety certification<br />however, did not indicate when the first set of<br />new railcars would launch. This could suggest<br />another potential delay for the same project.<br />One factor that increases the probability is that<br />the trains have already been manufactured and are<br />simply waiting for testing. The AJC reported that<br />this testing has been going on since December<br />2025. However, time spent testing the trains does<br />not indicate how close they are to passing these<br />tests and being put on the tracks. Additionally,<br />MARTAâs official project page states that ânew<br />railcars will be phased into the fleet over the<br />next several years with the first car starting<br />service in 2026.â This doesnât guarantee that<br />a launch will occur before November 19th, but<br />sounds promising. In reference to the same quote,<br />MARTA doesn't have to have their entire fleet<br />of cars finished by November 19th, they simply<br />have to have a report stating at least one of<br />the cars is operational. Factors that decrease<br />the probability include the fact that the safety<br />certification process has been continually pushed<br />back. Additionally, MARTA has provided minimal<br />certainty or information regarding the project.<br />Finally, the Georgia Department of Transportation<br />state policy requires MARTA to formally notify<br />the state that the trains are âfully certified and<br />ready for passengers at least 30 days before they<br />can enter service.â For these reasons, I predict<br />a 20% chance that MARTA reports the new train cars<br />as operational before November 19th, 2026.","Jacob Nabors (27%): Most of the conflict, the<br />amount of traffic through the Straight has been<br />decreased. However, there have been instances<br />where traffic has gone up due to a deal being<br />signed. While these spikes have happened, they<br />have not lasted for more than a few days. Since<br />the question requires a 7-day streak, it is still<br />unlikely to happen. Iran has sent a delegation to<br />the UNGA and offered to re-open if the US ceased<br />pressure and the naval blockade. This doesn't seem<br />likely to happen as Trump does not seem to want<br />to admit that any of his decisions were wrong or<br />apologize. Overall, it does not seem likely that<br />this would happen for a 7-day period.","Jason Eappen (3%): the 12 mile range off Tawian's<br />cost would be considered an act of war. It is the<br />equivlant to China having an aircraft 12 miles<br />off the coast of LA. the Untied States would<br />not let it go. They would have F-35s immiediate<br />go to intercept. Tawian would do the same. They<br />would not wait until the aircraft got close to<br />respond. Then, the question now becomes will<br />China invade Tawian by November 19th? The answer<br />to this quesiton is no. Not in the near future.<br />They are a rising economic power and they are<br />slowly making the world more reliant on them for<br />their manufcaturing. This gives them more of an<br />incentive to wait before attacking Tawian.","Jason Eappen (10%): With no end in sight with the<br />war and 30 ships passing through the Strait only<br />once in the past few months, the odds that it will<br />happen before November 19th remains low. Moreover,<br />
342in the class discussion, there was an increase<br />in the IRGC power and they are more likely to<br />not make a deal because they are more ideological<br />radical. Moreover, Iran wants to derail Trump's<br />midterm strategy by keeping gas prices high and<br />force Trump to make a bad deal. This decreases","Jason Eappen (10%): The biggest mover of my<br />revisied predictions was the meeting minutes<br />have indicated that the MARTA train cars did not<br />even show up. This means that this is not in the<br />forfront of the comissions mind. There have been<br />consistent and constant delays. From 2023 till now<br />there is no incentive for them to get it done. The<br />World Cup is over there is no reason for them to<br />push forward with some urgency. But to get it done<br />before November, a couple of months is not moving<br />the needle since. Nothing has been mentioned since<br />June. They would have ramped PR by now, but it has<br />not happened.","Jordan Sanderson (12%): While Chinese aircraft<br />has been spotted flying near the ADIZ (Air Defense<br />Identification Zone) the area is an international<br />space so it doesnât constitute being within<br />Taiwans jurisdiction. I think they will continue<br />operating in the âgray areaâ even considering the<br />historical context between China and Taiwan.","Jordan Sanderson (20%): Trump threaten Iran in UN<br />so tensions continue. Negotiation on good faith<br />is looking slim, but they are having their first<br />diplomatic meeting so things could look up. When<br />looking at the trends of the daily transits they<br />still tend to average a little below 7, which is<br />obsolete compared to the hundreds before war.","Jordan Sanderson (25%): Aftermath of the World Cup<br />games in Atlanta kind of left things incomplete<br />as they have confused to miss deadlines throughout<br />the months. They have not submitted their trains<br />cars for inspection yet and without any visible<br />media coverage I think it could happen at the end<br />of year, but not specifically in November.","Joshua Mui (5%): I think I'm going to stand my<br />ground, especially with the clarification that<br />this is referring to mainland only. Data says<br />that while incursions from PLA aircraft into the<br />general direction of Taiwanese space have been<br />relatively constant, they've seemingly dropping<br />off over the past 2ish years. In addition,<br />nothing has gotten within the 12 miles as I've<br />found. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the question,<br />but really it would be quite bold for the PLA to<br />effectively invade Taiwan getting that close, and<br />there doesn't seem to be chance/warning/news of<br />buildup around that point. In addition, positive<br />relations between the U.S. and China give me<br />confidence that the PLA will not try anything that<br />they shouldn't.","Joshua Mui (5%): I could really go lower, but<br />the average hasn't gone above single digits<br />since July. My only (admittedly minor) point<br />of skepticism is that there's a nonzero chance<br />an Iran deal gets through or something before<br />midterms as some kind of last gasp by the U.S.<br />government. It's a long shot, and not really a<br />crazy reasonable one. 1 in 20 for that feels about<br />right for now. In addition, that opening needs to<br />hold for a week+ to actually get the average above<br />the threshhold, so we'll see.","Joshua Mui (33%): I'm going to stand my ground<br />here, even though I think I could go lower. There<br />is very little recent (past June) news coverage<br />about the trains, but the bureaucratic process<br />to get them approved seems to have been in motion<br />since before June. There's definitely a chance<br />that the new trains get approved by November,<br />especially since they've already been completed,<br />so maybe 1/3 feels about right.","Julia Krehbiel (15%): I think that this would send<br />a very strong message to Taiwan and start a world<br />war 3. As we noted in class, it is also unclear<br />who all would come to the support of Taiwan and<br />what the implications would be. Their actions of<br />flying in the airspace are already provocative<br />enough for Taiwan and its allies, and I do not see<br />why, at this moment, they would get any closer.","Julia Krehbiel (20%): I am lowering my probability<br />slightly because after hearing more from one of my<br />classmates and his perspective on the conflict, it<br />made me realize that Iran really doesn't have much<br />to lose or an incentive to open up the strait and<br />do any favors for the United States. Especially<br />
342before midterms, I do not think that there will be<br />much of a change.","Julia Krehbiel (20%): I think that a chance exists<br />that the new train cars will be in service in<br />the next few months; however, I do not see what<br />incentives are in place that would really ensure<br />this is resolved. Like one of our classmates said,<br />the World Cup is over, and that was the main goal<br />for MARTA and these new cars. With all of the<br />testing that has to take place, I feel as though<br />they will continue to take their time and release<br />the cars when they are fully ready.","Kiefer Adams (10%): I am maintaining my forecast<br />of a 10% chance that Chinese military aircraft<br />pass within 12 miles of Taiwan's coast before<br />November 19. My reasoning behind this is the lack<br />of historical precedence for China to escalate the<br />situation this drastically, especially in such a<br />short time frame. The reason I am not going lower<br />is that there may be a lot riding on the US talks<br />with Xi Jinping that are currently happening, as<br />well as any reaction to the US midterms that China<br />may have. These are wildcards that likely will not<br />result in this question resolving yes, but it is<br />certainly not impossible.","Kiefer Adams (5%): I am revising my initial<br />forecast of a 10% probability that the 7-day<br />average number of vessels transiting the Strait of<br />Hormuz will be higher than 30 at any point before<br />November 19. I am going down to 5% because of the<br />2-3 week lag that it took back in June for the<br />number of ships to rise dramatically enough to get<br />to the 30 vessels/day threshold. So, essentially<br />the timeline for resolving the conflict to the<br />point where shipping resumes must happen at least<br />two weeks prior to the November 19 deadline.","Kiefer Adams (5%): I am revising my forecast for<br />the AJC reporting that MARTA's new train cars<br />are operational before November 19th down to 5%.<br />This is because of the realization that the MARTA<br />board minutes made no mention of the cars in both<br />the August and September meetings. This, coupled<br />with the 30-day delay needed, makes it extremely<br />unlikely that we will see an announcement by the<br />AJC by November 19.","Krish Chinta (3%): I'm revising my probability<br />down in light of the clarification of the question<br />to only include the Taiwanese mainland. For<br />the PLA to brazenly violate the ROC's sovereign<br />airspace would be an act of war, and it is highly<br />unlikely that China invades Taiwan in the next two<br />months.","Krish Chinta (7%): I'm dropping my probability<br />by a few points to account for the significant<br />delays in reporting and Hormuz traffic in response<br />to a possible reopening as well as the turmoil<br />in Iranian government structure working against<br />possible peace negotiations. I do not think the<br />Iran war will end by early November and do not<br />see another reasonable avenue for the question to<br />resolve yes.","Krish Chinta (13%): I'm not sure if the plural<br />requirement in the question refers to the multiple<br />cars in each four-car set or multiple sets<br />of cars. In either case, my rationale remains<br />unchanged and is only strengthened by the class<br />discussion; the institutional friction and repeat<br />delays coupled with Stadler's historical record of<br />implementation hiccups makes it highly unlikely,<br />but not outright impossible, for the public to be<br />
342able to ride the new CQ400 cars by November 19th.","Leah Mojica (10%): Taiwan's territorial airspace<br />extends 12 nautical miles from its baseline.<br />Taiwan has explicitly warned that it will exercise<br />its right to self-defense and engage any foreign<br />military assets that breach this threshold.","Leah Mojica (10%): I am sticking with my original<br />prediction that this is not a likely event. If<br />I remember correctly, the average is around 8<br />or so over 7 days. And conflicts are not likely<br />to resolve soon enough for these numbers to rise<br />again.","Leah Mojica (10%): I do not think that MARTA is<br />going to release its cars because those operations<br />have been delayed consistently since the beginning<br />of the year. I do not think that, at this point,<br />it is very likely that the new cars will be<br />reported as operational and open to the public in<br />the next two months or so.","Matthew Fern (10%): After class discussion, I<br />feel confident to move my prediction down a bit.<br />While China often operates military aircrafts near<br />Taiwan, it has never made the step of actually<br />crossing within 12 miles of the mainland's border.<br />This would be an act of war, and I do not believe<br />China is likely to do that within the next 2<br />months. The state visit will have interesting<br />repercussions, but as of now, Trump has made no<br />statements as to what has been discussed.","Matthew Fern (25%): I moved my prediction down a<br />bit based on class discussion. It seems unlikely<br />that the 7-day average will be reaching 30 ships<br />before November 19th. It seems unlikely that Iran<br />will simply decide to remove its blockade of the<br />Strait. While there was some uncertainty with the<br />state visit, Trump said that he believes Xi has<br />handled the situation \"reasonably well,\" so I do<br />not think he will be heavily impacting that.","Matthew Fern (20%): I believe my initial forecast<br />of 20% is reasonable. Given the new clarification<br />that this means that there must be multiple cars<br />accessible to the public by November 19th, I do<br />not foresee this happening. I do believe that<br />it may be the case that they are able to get one<br />operational, I do not see there being multiple<br />at once. While, yes, there is an incentive to<br />introduce new railcars to retire the old fleet,<br />this incentive has existed for decades, so what<br />would be the rush now?","Megan Tate (15%): After listening to todayâs<br />discussion, I think there is a 15% chance that<br />Chinese military aircraft pass within 12 miles<br />of Taiwanâs coast before November 19. The reason<br />why I lowered my forecast is because while there<br />is always uncertainty regarding international<br />matters, I think it would be an unexpected move on<br />Chinaâs part to pass within 12 miles of Taiwanâs<br />coast. I think this would definitely cause some<br />tension worldwide, and considering Chinaâs current<br />stance as the âpeacemakerâ, it would be unlikely.<br />So, I think there is a low chance of this<br />happening.","Megan Tate (15%): I estimate there is a 15% chance<br />that the average number of vessels transiting<br />the Strait of Hormuz will be higher than 30 at<br />any point before November 19. Currently, the<br />IMF/PortWatch data has the 7-day average at<br />only 5.3 vessels/day for September 7-13. Before<br />the Middle East conflict, approximately 125-140<br />transited the strait each day, but traffic has<br />fallen significantly, with recent levels often in<br />the single digits. There are signs of increased<br />oil movement as Saudi Arabia shifts more exports<br />through Gulf terminals, which keeps my probability<br />above 10%. However, reaching above 30 vessels<br />would require a major recovery in traffic.","Megan Tate (10%): I estimate there is a 10% chance<br />that the Atlanta Journal Constitution will report<br />that MARTAâs new train cars are operational before<br />November 19. The initial rollout and inaugural<br />âFirst Rideâ was scheduled for early June 2026.<br />However, in late May and early June, the AJC<br />revealed that MARTA postponed the launch due to<br />ongoing safety testing. Under Georgia policy,<br />once MARTA submits all final safety data, GDOT<br />requires up to a 30 day review period before<br />certifying trains for passenger revenue service.<br />As of now, neither MARTA nor GDOT has provided<br />an updated timeline, leading me to believe that<br />an operational launch before mid-November remains<br />highly unlikely.","Mera Moucharrafie (17%): According to the Global<br />Taiwan Institute, the People's Republic of<br />China (PRC) military forces carried out a very<br />large-scale exercise in the air/oceans around<br />Taiwan that was named \"Justice-Mission 2025.\" This<br />was so that Chinese ships and their aircraft could<br />understand how to operate in case of combat. This<br />article states that 10 Chinese rockets landed in<br />Taiwan's contiguous zone (which is 12-24 miles<br />from the coast), but is unclear whether the<br />aircrafts actually crossed within the contiguous<br />zone of Taiwan's mainland. Crossing this zone<br />would create serious tensions between Taiwan and<br />China.","Mera Moucharrafie (15%): It is hard to tell, but,<br />according to the Seahazards website that uses IMF<br />PortWatch data and UN Global Platform data, the<br />current report for the 7-day average number of<br />vessels per day is 5.3. The week prior, however,<br />shows a much lower average for number of vessels<br />per day; the previous average was 3.1. While 5.3<br />vessels per day is larger than 3.1 vessels per<br />day, reaching to 30 vessels may be very unlikely.","Mera Moucharrafie (30%): According to the AJC,<br />new MARTA train cars were slowly making their<br />way into passing safety checks and riders may<br />actually begin to see a few soon. Under \"MARTA\"s<br />Capital Projects\" on their website, it states that<br />while the current status is \"testing\", the first<br />car will start/be available in 2026, and we are<br />getting closer to the end of the year. However,<br />the cars have to hit 4,000 miles before they can<br />be considered operational, which can take anywhere<br />from 2 weeks to 3 months; we currently don't know<br />how many miles they're at.","Michelle Villanueva (10%): I lowered my prediction<br />from 15% to 10%. Although Chinese military<br />aircraft frequently cross the median line of<br />the Taiwan Strait and enter Taiwanâs air defense<br />identification zone, that is very different<br />from flying within 12 miles of the main island.<br />For example, Taiwan reported that nine Chinese<br />military aircraft crossed the median line, but<br />that report did not establish that any entered<br />the 12-mile zone. Another point brought up in<br />class was that entering this area could create<br />
342a much greater risk of military confrontation,<br />with potentially serious economic and diplomatic<br />consequences for China. However, I am keeping my<br />prediction at 10% rather than lowering it further<br />because someone mentioned China's strategy of<br />gradually testing boundaries through military<br />exercises. There is still a possibility that<br />an aircraft or drone could briefly cross the<br />boundary, either deliberately or accidentally.","Michelle Villanueva (25%): After listening to<br />the arguments brought up in class, I lowered my<br />prediction from 35% to 25%. One argument that<br />stood out to me was that even if an agreement is<br />reached, shipping traffic would not immediately<br />return to normal. Someone mentioned that during an<br />earlier temporary reopening, it took about two to<br />three weeks for the seven-day average to reach 30,<br />and traffic dropped again when fighting resumed.<br />I also became less confident because shipping<br />remains extremely limited Reuters reported that<br />only two commercial vessels crossed the strait on<br />September 21. However, I am keeping my prediction<br />at 25% because Reuters reported on September 24<br />that the United States and Iran are discussing a<br />phased agreement that could reopen the strait in<br />exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade. I think<br />an agreement could still give shipping traffic<br />enough time to recover before November 19, but<br />the uncertainty surrounding negotiations and the<br />time needed for traffic to increase make me less<br />confident than I was originally.","Michelle Villanueva (30%): I lowered my prediction<br />from 40% to 30%. MARTA still needs to complete<br />its required testing and submit its final safety<br />documentation to the GDOT. Since GDOT normally<br />requires 30 days notice before passenger service<br />begins, MARTA would generally need to complete<br />that step by around October 20 to meet our<br />deadline, unless the requirement is waived.<br />Another point raised in class was the lack of<br />recent announcements about the trains, despite<br />MARTA having already missed several launch dates.<br />However, I still believe there's a chance they'll<br />be operational soon or before Nov 19 because MARTA<br />had already received 10 new trains and trained 45<br />operators by May. MARTA's website still says that<br />they are hoping for passenger service in 2026,<br />and I think the AJC would likely cover the launch<br />once the trains actually become available to the<br />public.","Parker Buckroyd (13%): Taiwan's Ministry of<br />National Defense has not reported Chinese<br />warplanes entering this 12-mile limit or Taiwan's<br />territorial waters within their recent monitoring.<br />The last case was a drone in January of<br />2026.Sovereign airspace extends 12 nautical miles<br />from a territory's shoreline, meaning that Chinese<br />intervention would threaten enhancing tensions<br />between China and Taiwan. While China has used<br />drones and aircraft in the past on surrounding<br />territory claimed by Taiwan, I estimate a 13%<br />chance that Chinese military aircraft will pass<br />within the sovereign 12 miles of Taiwan's coast<br />before November 19.","Parker Buckroyd (23%): The 7-day average for the<br />Strait of Hormuz has not been greater than 30<br />since June 29th, 2026. Tensions only appear to<br />be rising with security concerns being issued to<br />U.S embassies and strikes. Because of the trends<br />being followed on IMF Port Watch and various<br />news articles by sources such as CNN and Politico<br />conveying low levels of success of successful<br />shipping, I estimate a 23% chance that the strait<br />has a 7-day average over 30 before November 19th.","Parker Buckroyd (40%): MARTA originally planned<br />an inaugural ride for June 4, 2026, but due to<br />safety reasons they were not usable. The U.S.<br />Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) regularly<br />mandates rigorous 60-day safety testing windows<br />for new rail cars, making MARTA valid to pass<br />through a new testing wave. To the press, MARTA<br />has expressed that they desire to roll out the<br />new cars by the end of 2026, giving only a small<br />window after November 19th to use the new cars.<br />News reported by The Atlantic is updated daily,<br />meaning the day the cars are used, it will be<br />reported on. These factors dictate my guess of 40%<br />chance that the Atlanta Journal-Constitution will<br />report that MARTA's new train cars are operational<br />before November 19.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (8%): The probability<br />of Chinese military aircraft passing within the<br />airspace boundary of Taiwan is low. While they<br />conduct frequent operations crossing the line of<br />Taiwan and trying to push it, there still hasn't<br />been significant developments for China to start<br />the invasion of Taiwan.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (30%): With the war<br />in Iran and the several blockades since the 2026<br />crisis, recent reports from the US Central Command<br />indicate that they have cleared some transit<br />lanes and shipping volumes, but the chances still<br />remain very slim. The Omar-Iran talks of temporary<br />ceasefires have helped a little. However, the<br />conflict seems at a stall as of right now to<br />November 19","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (50%): With operations<br />stalled and a concrete date missing from MARTA,<br />it is as likely as a coin flip that the AJC<br />will report on this new fleet being done and<br />operational within MARTA by November 19th. It<br />wasn't mentioned in their last meeting and MARTA<br />does not have rollout date in schedule, however,<br />they were going to roll them out by the World Cup<br />and didn't do so.","Sarah Gregory (10%): Under international law,<br />territorial airspace extends 12 nautical miles<br />from a country's coast. Crossing into the<br />12-mile zone would represent a direct violation<br />of sovereign airspace, which Taiwanese defense<br />protocols dictate could justify a kinetic military<br />response. Short of a full-scale military conflict<br />breaking out before November 19, China is expected<br />to maintain its current boundary lines.","Sarah Gregory (30%): Overall, there has been<br />a sharp decline in vessels passing through the<br />Strait even in the past week. This Sunday only<br />3 vessels passed through. I think this trend<br />will continue because the tensions with Iran are<br />not close to resolve. Vessels are still passing<br />
342through each day. I do not think this number will<br />average 30 or above.","Sarah Gregory (30%): Nothing has been released<br />officially saying MARTA has any plans to<br />make the cars operational. MARTA delayed the<br />highly anticipated June 4, 2026, debut of the<br />Stadler-built CQ400 railcars just days before<br />the FIFA World Cup because the trains had not<br />yet cleared critical safety tests or received<br />certification from the Georgia Department of<br />Transportation (GDOT).","Slate Jones (5%): If this were to happen, it would<br />cause massive global scale conflict, and would<br />be grounds for defensive action. Economies would<br />be greatly affected, and with major players such<br />as the US and China being forced into the fray,<br />i believe it is safe to say that nothing this<br />aggressive will occur between China and Taiwan<br />before November 19th","Slate Jones (15%): The weekly average for the past<br />3 months has been less than double digits. Trump<br />has said he does not plan on ending the conflict<br />in Iran before the midterms. while Trump is very<br />unpredictable, I doubt that he will go back on his<br />word on this. I adjusted by guess down by 5 due<br />to further thought about how it would make Trump<br />look weak to go back on his word and end this<br />conflict, though the possibility of the war ending<br />relatively soon may exist.","Slate Jones (15%): Given that the train must be<br />running and publicly available by November 19th<br />as the definition of operational, I would say this<br />is highly unlikely. There is little incentive for<br />MARTA to have this done by any strict time frame,<br />as they postponed it to after the world cup, and<br />the CEO is on record saying they are willing to<br />take some embarrassment with the delay for the<br />sake of ensuring the railcars are safe.","Will Steiner (5%): Despite the salami-slicing<br />technique I talked about in class, China seems<br />to have lost interest in taking control of Taiwan<br />through military strength. They've scaled back<br />lots of their aggression, and I don't expect them<br />to suddenly ramp up before November 19. They're<br />already verging on global economic dominance;<br />there's no need for them to cause a security<br />threat in this manner.","Will Steiner (7%): It still seems this will<br />be a relatively unlikely event. While June<br />demonstrated that it was possible, Iran wants to<br />do everything in their power to cripple Trump and<br />the Republicans before the midterms, meaning they<br />are less likely to reach for some kind of deal.<br />Trump's rhetoric has also only scaled up, moving<br />in the opposite direction than this forecast<br />needs. These factors, combined with the fact that<br />it takes inertia for ships to scale back up to a<br />7-day average, means this is extremely unlikely.","Will Steiner (18%): These MARTA delays have passed<br />the major benchmark of the World Cup, and now they<br />have no reason to install them in any hurry. Given<br />the safety record we discussed in class, and the<br />natural slowness of the bureaucracy, I expect it<br />to take far longer than 30 days to get approval.<br />This pushes the date even earlier to submit for<br />review, and considering that they haven't said a<br />word about the new cars recently, I don't expect<br />to see them any time soon.","Ziyada Rakhimova (35%): Taiwanâs Ministry of<br />National Defense terms are clear: while foreign<br />military aircrafts that enter ADIZ are followed<br />and shadowed, intrusion into their air space<br />without announcement is regarded as an aggressive<br />move. It is already known that violation of the<br />countryâs territorial airspace gives Taiwan the<br />right to defend itself by following with fire<br />control radar, warning shots, and interception.<br />Beijing is aware of these red lines and never<br />stepped across them, and knowingly a shoot down<br />would immediately give Taiwan the opportunity to<br />escalation.","Ziyada Rakhimova (25%): I put the scale at a lower<br />proability because of the mixed, and cofusing<br />signals that the U.S government and Iranian<br />government have been exchanging about coming to<br />more peaceful negotations. There have been talks<br />of the war ending immediately after the November<br />midterm elections, though this same sentiment<br />has been shared time before in the past and the<br />war continues. On top of this, Iranian nuclear<br />facilities are now being flagged to be reported to<br />the IAEA for denying UN inspectors acess to their<br />nuclear facilities. This brings me to theorize<br />that the war on oil will only become more complex,<br />and by November 19 the 7-day average of the number<br />of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz not to<br />surpass 30.","Ziyada Rakhimova (10%): The chances of this<br />bombastic event happening are closer to 0, than<br />ever tipping over even 50% because MARTA sucks.<br />The reason why the train needed to be launched in<br />the first place was that FIFA World Cup 2026 was<br />coming up. MARTA was always planning to launch<br />them at the start of June before the first game<br />at Atlanta. Once MARTA realized that the safety<br />permissions were not in place, they decided to<br />cancel the whole project stating that the trains<br />would not be launched for the World Cup. Which was<br />indeed a public embarassment for America. 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342 343</div> 344</div> 345</section> 346<section id="week-6-929" class="level2"> 347<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="week-6-929">Week 6 (9/29)</h2> 348<div class="cell"> 349<div class="cell-output-display"> 350<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-118d3e457cbe674dcc20" style="width:100%;height:464px;"></div>
351<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-118d3e457cbe674dcc20">{"x":{"data":[{"x":[0.23999999999999999,0.62,0.5],"y":[0.98201838560402388,1.9345132235623896,2.9439098053984343],"text":["Crowd (24%)","Crowd (62%)","Crowd (50%)"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(186,12,47,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Crowd,2)","legendgroup":"(Crowd,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.40999999999999998],"y":[3.0806467067822814],"text":"Joe Ornstein (41%): In order to win re-election<br />in such an unfavorable year for Republicans<br />nationally, Senator Collins needs votes from<br />Mainers who identify as Independents and<br />Democrats. It is difficult to believe that she<br />will draw as much support from these groups in<br />2026 as she did in 2020, but Collins is a historic<br />electoral overperformer. The polls are tight and<br />well within the margin of error, and fundamentals<br />suggest that the state should lean Democratic<br />all-else-equal. I'll give this one slightly less<br />than even odds, but I could easily see it going<br />either way.","type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)","opacity":0.5,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,255,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","legendgroup":"(Joe Ornstein,2)","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[0.20000000000000001,0.40000000000000002,0.57999999999999996,0.34999999999999998,0.63,0.46999999999999997,0.25,0.55000000000000004,0.59999999999999998,0.75,0.40000000000000002,0.14999999999999999,0.45000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.64000000000000001,0.53000000000000003,0.070000000000000007,0.20000000000000001,0.59999999999999998,0.65000000000000002,0.34999999999999998,0.51000000000000001,0.01,0.59999999999999998,0.65000000000000002,0.20000000000000001,0.55000000000000004,0.40000000000000002,0.02,0.40000000000000002,0.68000000000000005,0.10000000000000001,0.94999999999999996,0.55000000000000004,0.050000000000000003,0.69999999999999996,0.45000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.90000000000000002,0.45000000000000001,0.55000000000000004,0.75,0.65000000000000002,0.25,0.52000000000000002,0.42999999999999999,0.20000000000000001,0.69999999999999996,0.42999999999999999,0.45000000000000001,0.25,0.55000000000000004,0.14999999999999999,0.80000000000000004,0.45000000000000001,0.23999999999999999,0.85999999999999999,0.64000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.84999999999999998,0.65000000000000002,0.45000000000000001,0.53000000000000003,0.20000000000000001,0.40000000000000002,0.55000000000000004,0.40999999999999998,0.62,0.42999999999999999,0.29999999999999999,0.65000000000000002,0.52000000000000002,0.029999999999999999,0.75,0.40000000000000002,0.37,0.5,0.62,0.34999999999999998,0.45000000000000001,0.59999999999999998,0.14999999999999999,0.80000000000000004,0.48999999999999999,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.14999999999999999,0.69999999999999996,0.40000000000000002,0.28000000000000003,0.62,0.51000000000000001,0.14999999999999999,0.5,0.53000000000000003,0.45000000000000001,0.22,0.46999999999999997,0.14999999999999999,0.41999999999999998,0.45000000000000001,0.050000000000000003,0.59999999999999998,0.45000000000000001,0.34999999999999998,0.84999999999999998,0.45000000000000001,0.45000000000000001],"y":[1.0604301099851727,1.9052372161485254,3.0235138934478165,0.97012673325836662,1.9246828937716782,3.0753415583074091,0.91503930568695069,2.9361734899319707,0.89142752194777131,1.9053159901686012,3.0925455811992286,0.92771443597972392,3.0166083674132822,0.93998201752081512,2.1198901536501946,2.8826735135726631,0.99311055917292834,2.0573649888113139,3.0356770802848043,0.96310793574899434,2.0582811320014298,3.0141208687238397,1.0785652904026211,1.9026612978242339,3.0942908325791358,1.0912981693260371,1.9474920395389199,3.070548680406064,1.069066707007587,1.8950141099840403,2.9704496797174214,1.0021065213531255,2.1065529016777873,2.9306557527557016,0.98931089924648408,1.9225834195874631,2.9486947621218862,1.052095594573766,1.9130913921259343,3.0906822046078744,0.90038703402504328,2.0754722491651774,2.8809537633508442,1.0452052720822393,1.9615452155098319,2.8948087457008658,1.0580178051814437,1.9029440334998071,2.9492232022248208,0.90762175511568788,1.9086053866520525,2.89
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351the race if Kamala Harris enters. Most likely, the<br />Democratic Partyâs strategy for the next couple<br />of years will be determined by the outcome of the<br />upcoming elections happening all over the country.<br />Thus, if Newsom plans to announce it, he probably<br />will next year.","Bianca Orfila-Molinet (55%): Susan Collins may<br />not win reelection in Maine. Considering that<br />this is a midterm year, and there is Republican<br />control of government, voters are more likely to<br />feel dissatisfied with the current representatives<br />that hold office and their affiliated party.<br />According to UMass Lowell, Tray Jackson, Collinsâs<br />Democratic opponent, is polling at 5 points higher<br />than Collins. However, it is still pretty early<br />in the race to tell, and Collins has a voter base<br />that extends beyond just Republicans; she pulls<br />from suburban middle-class Democrats as well.<br />There are a mix of polls putting both contenders<br />ahead with differences in polling values, so<br />this is not set in stone. I averaged all the<br />polls I found to find her chances of winning to<br />be 46.9% across all polls. Then, I found Trumpâs<br />and Collinsâs approval ratings (37% and 38%,<br />respectively). Then I incorporated Collinsâs<br />history of outperforming polls by 15%. Incumbent<br />success rate is 88% overall, which is a very<br />outside view that does not consider competitive<br />races, while Collinsâs success rate over the<br />past two elections has been an average of 59.5%.<br />I settled on the percentage 55% because I am<br />completely indecisive.","Brian Sadenwasser (60%): He has publicly said he<br />is considering a run. He also has been visiting<br />early primary states (like South Carolina, for<br />example). I think there is a high chance he runs<br />for the presidency. There are three things that<br />make me think he won't or that it won't happen<br />before Nov 19. The first is in a recent interview<br />he said that he will not run if Harris runs.<br />He also has stated he will not run without his<br />family's support. I also think that there is a<br />good chance he will wait until after Nov 19, as<br />many campaigns start a few months later. All of<br />those pieces of evidence drop my prediction from<br />about 85% to 60%.","Brian Sadenwasser (75%): Pardons are relatively<br />rare in the October of a midterm year, but Trump<br />is pardoning people with a much greater frequency.<br />The median gap between pardons is only 7 days,<br />but there have been a couple 100 day gaps. There<br />are also individuals I think he could pardon as<br />well as a few groups. Lastly I considered the<br />new pardon broker story. I think that pushes the<br />percent chance up.","Brian Sadenwasser (40%): I looked at the polls<br />aggregated by the New York Times. Most of the<br />\"select\" polls are within +/- 5 points, so<br />it seems very close to a toss up. Polymarket<br />has Susan Collins at a 41% chance, while Troy<br />Jackson has a 61% chance. This made me start my<br />probability at 45%. I adjusted downward because<br />of the fact that Maine voted for Harris in 2024.<br />After learning about the disapproval rates of<br />Collins and Trump discussed in class, I adjusted<br />my probability down.","Brianna Speizer (15%): I think it is very unlikely<br />that Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for<br />the 2028 Presidential election before November<br />19. Looking at the dates of announcements for<br />the 2024 Presidential election, anytime before<br />November 19 would be very early and decisive<br />which does not seem to track with his recent<br />announcements that he would be waiting to see<br />if Kamala Harris runs, and would not run if she<br />did. Biden announced his campaign April 25, 2023<br />for the November 2024 election (19 months prior),<br />Trump announced November 15, 2022 (24 months<br />prior), and the first campaign announcement was<br />Corey Stapleton on November 11, 2022 (24 prior).<br />If Gavin Newsom were to announce before November<br />19th, it would be 24-25 months before the 2028<br />election. Additionally, Polymarket puts the odds<br />of him being the Democratic nominee at 15% with<br />Jon Ossoff and AOC ahead of him at 16% and 18%<br />respectively. Polymarket also has his odds of<br />winning the 2028 election at 8%","Brianna Speizer (45%): I think it is about a<br />coin flip if Susan Collins will win reelection<br />in Maine; it seems to be a very competitive race.<br />Although incumbents typically have a substantial<br />advantage in elections, the overall political<br />sentiments in the country seem to be going more<br />democratic. The Hill reported that President<br />Trump's approval rating has hit a historic low<br />at 29% approval, which could cause the pendulum<br />to swing more democratic as people search for<br />change during elections across the country this<br />year, especially with rising costs of living. The<br />New York Times had the highest prediction of her<br />winning at 49% However, Polymarket had her odds at<br />34%, and Kalshi had her winning at 37%.","Caitlyn McMullen (35%): The median time for<br />
351presidential candidates to announce their running<br />is the spring of the year before election year.<br />This is due to the time needed to build a strong<br />campaign and allow people to know who you are as a<br />candidate well before the ballots. Trump announced<br />his running for the 2024 much earlier than the<br />median (2 years). Newsom has been the CA governor<br />for 7 years, and his term ends in Jan 2027, to<br />which he cannot run again because of term limits.<br />This month, in an interview with CNN, Newsom<br />publicly states that he would not run against<br />Kamala Harris (if she were to run for president<br />again) because it would cause the democrat vote<br />to to split since they share a lot of the same<br />voter base and financial donors. A POLITICO poll<br />shows that 37% of California registered voters<br />feel excited about a Newsom run (down from 48% in<br />March 2026), compared to 28% for Harris (down from<br />41%). Overall, I am putting his probability low<br />because Harris has not announced her presidency<br />yet, which means that Newsom likely will not<br />either- if he did, it could cause distrust since<br />he publicly stated he would not run if Harris<br />runs. Additionally, it would be pretty early for<br />anyone to announce that they are running as a<br />presidential candidate. However, my probability is<br />not lower because, particularly for the democrat<br />party, people want to know who the potential<br />candidates are, and it would not surprise me<br />if people started he conversation earlier (post<br />midterms) rather than waiting for the spring.","Caitlyn McMullen (64%): So far, in his 2nd term,<br />Trump has issued around 1700 pardons, including<br />over 1500 from the Jan 6 event and over 160<br />individuals (mostly white collar financial crimes<br />and business and political allies). In his first<br />term, over 70 of his pardons issued during his<br />finals hours in office, which is typical for many<br />presidents. While midterm election season is busy,<br />Trump's most recent pardoning was September 4<br />(which was for 30 individuals), indicating that<br />there is a chance that he will pardon at least<br />another slew of people in the next month. Trump<br />also expressed in early August about potentially<br />pardoning his past personal attorney, Michael<br />Cohen. Trump does not have an apparent pattern to<br />his pardons, but he has pardoned in batches much<br />more frequently than his first term. He has issued<br />pardons in June, July, and September, which makes<br />me think it is somewhat probable that he will<br />issue at least another group of pardons in the<br />next month. Trump's clemency process has become<br />personalized many of his pardons have involved<br />advocates approaching Trump directly. This also<br />makes me think that this ongoing process could<br />lead to a more scattered, frequent pattern rather<br />than waiting months in between pardons.","Caitlyn McMullen (53%): I am keeping my prior<br />prediction score. However, there were some<br />good points brought up in class, particularly<br />Kavanaugh's appointment and the overturning<br />of Roe. I am not raising my prediction because<br />of Maine's history of leaning left as well as<br />Collins' current approval rating being very low.<br />Additionally, Jackson is an appealing candidate<br />for many Maine residents because of his prior<br />position as President of the Maine Senate and<br />his devotion to the working class. But, I would<br />predict that Collins still has a slightly better<br />chance of coming out on top because of her<br />incumbency and polling results over her past terms<br />being very high.","Carter Ray (7%): Announcing a run for<br />President directly after the midterm elections<br />is historically unlikely but not entirely<br />unprecedented. There is a <1% chance that Newsom<br />announces before November 3rd, so this would have<br />to take place in the period between the 3rd-19th.<br />Looking up Presidential campaign announcements<br />from 2016-2024, the earliest announcement from<br />a serious candidate was Andrew Yang in 2018, who<br />announced a run in the week after the midterm<br />elections. While I would rate the possibility<br />of Gavin Newsom running overall very high, but<br />the chances of him breaking historical norms<br />(announcements in January-April of the year<br />before the election) seems unlikely. Additionally,<br />Newsom's term as Governor does not end until<br />January 2017.","Carter Ray (20%): This would be unprecedented<br />move as I could not find any instances of a<br />President pardoning somebody in the month before<br />a midterm election. This has the potential to<br />antagonize voters of the opposite party if it is<br />seen as corruption, but also has the potential to<br />inspire loyal partisans if he chooses to pardon<br />a partisan figure. Overall, it's unlikely, but<br />with Trump being unprecedented himself, especially<br />considering he's issued so many pardons already<br />this term.","Carter Ray (60%): Susan Collins has defied years<br />of Presidential trends within Maine, consistently<br />winning the state even while Democrats will<br />elsewhere up and down the ballot. Additionally,<br />Collins has historically outperformed polls by<br />wide margins, with RealClearPolitics showing polls<br />off by a margin of 9-20 points. Despite numerous<br />polls showing Gideon with significant margins,<br />Collins easily won reelection in 2020 by 8 points.<br />While partisanship has likely only increased since<br />then, and voters are turned off by many national<br />Republicans, Collins is only polling 1 point<br />behind Jackson, whose campaign only began in the<br />summer after Graham Platner dropped out. While<br />Polymarket gives Jackson 61% odds, I think this<br />does not give Collins enough credit.","Celina Simone (65%): Gavin Newsom (Govenor of<br />California) has gone on record to say there<br />is no deadline to announce candidancy. However<br />most announcements typically happen April of the<br />pre-election year. Front runners or non-incumbents<br />typically make announcements earlier to build name<br />recognition and begin to raise funding.","Celina Simone (35%): Donald Trump stated in<br />an interview with TIME magazine that he would<br />consider offering pre-emptive pardons to aides,<br />associates, and administration officials to<br />protect them from potential future political<br />targeting. However I see this most likely<br />happening after midterms if there is a blue<br />sweep, to protect collegues that no longer hold a<br />majority. The last pardon he issues was September<br />4, 2026.","Celina Simone (51%): Susan Collins frequently<br />out preforms her polls and she is running against<br />someone who entered the race late. While she<br />may have been recently realigning with more MAGA<br />politicians it seems as though she has maintained<br />her position as a moderate Republican on the<br />national stage. While much of her voter base<br />leans pro choice and this contradicts her judicial<br />appointment vote, she continues to describe<br />herself in campaign materials as âpro-choice.â<br />However recent attacks on the âgeriantocracyâ<br />and her FBI investigation are difficult to<br />ignore. Ultimately it is difficult to assign much<br />confidence to this forecast.","Christopher Heyl (1%): There is next to no chance<br />that Gavin Newsom would announce his candidacy<br />prior to November 19. To do so would not only<br />be a brash political move that could throw the<br />DNC into a scramble, but also something that is<br />historically unprecedented. There has only been<br />1 time in modern US history that a presidential<br />candidate announced they were running for office<br />in the immediate weeks of a midterm election and<br />that was Donald Trump in 2022. Newsom, therefore,<br />would not necessarily be the first, but given<br />that Trump is an exception in most presidential<br />categories a similar Newsom announcement would be<br />equally unprecedented. There is also the Kamala<br />Harris issue to consider, namely, Newsom has<br />publicly stated he would not run for President if<br />Harris were to announce herself as a candidate.<br />Given the fact that neither have been particularly<br />active politically or have been meeting with<br />campaign strategists, it is hard to believe<br />Harris or Newsom are anywhere near done weighing<br />a Presidential run. Historically, Presidential<br />candidates wait until the Spring/Summer of the<br />year before the election to announce candidacy,<br />placing a likely Newsom announcement to be in<br />Spring of 2027, not November of this year. Though<br />crazier things have happened, I imagine Democrats<br />are aiming to be very careful with how they<br />approach this election cycle, and a Newsom shock<br />announcement simply would not be in anyone's best<br />interests, apart from Republicans.","Christopher Heyl (60%): It is nearly impossible<br />to predict when Trump's next round of pardons<br />will be, there is little to no publicly available<br />data or reports out there that could support a<br />narrative on if pardons will be soon. What we<br />do have, however, is over a year and a half of<br />Trump's second term to look to. Trump throughout<br />his second term has issued pardons nearly every<br />month in office, with his most recent batch of<br />pardons being earlier this month. Doing some quick<br />math, based on Trump's second term in any given<br />34 day span he issues new pardons roughly 62%<br />of the time. That is a helpful base rate to base<br />my prediction on, and probably one of the only<br />real data points out there that could answer this<br />one. Trump has recently touted the prospect of<br />pardoning Michael Cohen, however this is hardly<br />a useful statistic to go by as he talks about<br />pardoning numerous people and either does not<br />follow through or does so months to over a year<br />later. Ultimately, I am leaning more towards a<br />pardon in the next 34 days than not, this is based<br />on Trump's typical rate and the fact that he may<br />use pardons as political currency leading into the<br />
351upcoming elections.","Christopher Heyl (65%): Based on discussions<br />in class today, I have decided to stick with my<br />original forecast of 65%. Collins appears to be<br />a unique Maine politician, able to withstand even<br />the deepest of unpopularities from her party at<br />the national level. Though this election will<br />likely be her closest in Maine to date, if she can<br />survive the Obama wave election of 2008, then I<br />am fairly confident she will be able to handle the<br />Democrat resurgence of 2026.","Dean McDonald (20%): Gavin Newsom has stated that<br />he will not run if Kamala Harris decides to run<br />for president. However, Kamala Harris herself is<br />undecided and is waiting to see how everything<br />plays out before announcing anything. What should<br />be noted, however, is that practically every<br />candidate in the last cycle announced their<br />candidacy well after the 2022 midterms (except for<br />Trump), and there is no reason for this cycle to<br />be different.","Dean McDonald (55%): Since taking office, out<br />of 21 months Trump has only NOT granted pardons<br />during 8 of these months, therefore, an outside<br />view accords us a 61.90% chance each month for a<br />pardon to occur. As we have slightly over a month<br />left to the midterms, we can round this slightly<br />to 63. However, he just pardoned a large batch<br />of people earlier this month, and historically<br />after mass pardons the next few months go<br />dry. Additionally, abuse of pardon power might<br />adversely affect Republican midterms. Therefore, a<br />very slight lean is acceptable.","Dean McDonald (40%): I have moderated my<br />prediction after in class discussion, as while<br />she was involved in scandal and is a relatively<br />hardline republican in a blue state, the sheer<br />advantage in incumbency that she has, in addition<br />to the fiasco with Graham Platner and the rush to<br />bring in Troy Jackson over at the democrat side<br />means that it is still a relative toss-up.","Denton Alexander (2%): My probability for Gavin<br />Newsom running for president is 35%. However,<br />he has said that he will not run if Harris is<br />running. Harris has said multiple times that she<br />will not announce her campaign or lack there of<br />until at least midterms are over. That leaves<br />about 2 weeks for Harris to announce, and then<br />Newsom to counter that announcement. Newsom has<br />already said his children have a 'veto power' when<br />it comes to his candidacy. All 4 of the children<br />started out in the \"no\" category, and over time<br />two have begun considering it. Once/if Harris<br />announces her candidacy, 2 weeks is not enough<br />time for Newsom's children to fully understand<br />the situation and circumstances as well as taking<br />reality into consideration.","Denton Alexander (40%): Trump has given around 77<br />pardons to individual people (not including the<br />blanket pardons for the January 6th crowd) in his<br />second term so far. In his first term he ordered<br />around 140 (and more of clemency). Trump is under<br />scrutiny from some former MAGA followers and<br />republicans in general, and I think his council<br />would advise him to not pardon anyone that would<br />be controversial, at least until after midterms.<br />As of about 35 minutes ago, Trump said in a new<br />interview that he is \"considering pre-emptively<br />pardoning members of his administration before the<br />end of his second term\" (NBC News). Trump still<br />has 2 years and a lot more enemies/friends to<br />make before he does his mass pardon tour. The last<br />pardon was 9/8, and before that was 23 pardons on<br />9/3. Two months before that was 17 pardons on 7/3,<br />then 1 on 6/4. Before that was in February. I am<br />on the fence because pardons come out on a rolling<br />basis, and Trump may have a friend wanting to go<br />home before the holidays.","Denton Alexander (68%): My original prediction<br />was 65%, and my original prediction went off of<br />
351the percent of incumbents who won in 2022 (67%).<br />I am increasing based off those in class who did<br />research, and most of them were about 55%-60%. I<br />am going to (kinda) extremize my vote! It seems<br />people have come out more than normal for the<br />primaries, and the democrat scandal replaced a<br />candidate in July, and we saw how the democrats<br />reacted to a quick replacement in the presidential<br />election. I think she will win her 6th seat.","Dylan Goff (10%): I think the odds that he<br />announces this early are incredibly slim. While<br />there is some precedent for people submitting for<br />candidacy they only do so under very contested<br />conditions. There are a lot of circumstances that<br />need to unfold before he announces.","Dylan Goff (95%): Donald trump has issued a<br />historic level of pardons during his second term,<br />1,800 to be exact. This comes out to multiple<br />pardons per day and there hasnât been any sign<br />that he plans on slowing down. There is a little<br />bit of wiggle room considering itâs an election<br />year, but thereâs not much","Dylan Goff (55%): I upped my initial probability<br />by a little bit. I added 5 points for her historic<br />over performance in elections, but subtracted 3<br />because I wasnât aware how contentious her kavanau<br />confirmation vote was. I think this factor may be<br />a deciding one for some voters","Edy Thompson (5%): I think this is very unlikely.<br />Newsom has already said that his decision will<br />come after the midterms, which leaves only 16 days<br />until November 19th. Typically, candidates will<br />announce months after a midterm, not weeks. He<br />also said he wonât run if Kamala Harris decides<br />to run again, so he would have to wait for her to<br />make her decision. I put this at 5%","Edy Thompson (70%): I think this is pretty likely.<br />The DOJ lists that in 2025 Trump issued 71 pardons<br />and 9 commutations, and in 2026 he has issued<br />66 pardons and 19 commutations so far, with the<br />most recent being on September 8th. This doesnât<br />include the two mass proclamations that cover<br />about 1,500 more people. Itâs important to note<br />that the pardons come in waves - there were two<br />four-month stretches with no pardons. However, I<br />still think it is likely so I put this at 70%.","Edy Thompson (45%): I could go either way on this<br />question. The polls are looking pretty close.<br />Maine usually leans Democratic, and with the<br />recent scandal involving Collins, things could go<br />south for her. However she has won before when the<br />polls said she would lose, so there is always a<br />possibility. I give this a 45% chance.","Ella Vars (35%): I believe it is unlikely that<br />Newsom will announce his candidacy before November<br />19th. Typically, people announce they are running<br />in the spring of the year before the election (in<br />this case spring of 2027). Additionally, Newsom<br />has stated he will not run if Harris runs again,<br />so we would have to see a decision made from<br />her campaign. However, I do believe it is still<br />possible as Newsom seems to be positioning himself<br />to run in 2028.","Ella Vars (90%): Trump has granted many pardons<br />during his second term. The Justice Departmentâs<br />records show that since January 2025, Trump has<br />granted over 1,700 pardons. In September 2026<br />alone, Trump has granted 24 pardons. There are no<br />signs that Trump's pardon process will become less<br />active in the coming months. With roughly five<br />weeks until the midterms, the continued flow of<br />requests and Trumpâs demonstrated willingness to<br />issue pardons make it seem very likely we will see<br />another pardon, if not many.","Ella Vars (45%): Starting from an outside view,<br />incumbent senators win reelection roughly 80% of<br />the time. Susan Collins is on her 6th term and has<br />won with comfortable margins in the past. A recent<br />poll has Collins winning 49% to 46%, a narrow<br />margin above Jackson. Previous polls have shown<br />Collins losing narrowly, and Democrats winning in<br />many swing states. I think the overturning of Roe<br />
351v Wade after she supported Kavanaugh will hurt her<br />in her reelection, and overall push her slightly<br />below the 50% mark to 45%.","Eva Carnes (55%): Gavin Newsom is currently<br />awaiting to announce his candidacy for the 2028<br />presidential race. He is waiting on Kamala Harris<br />to announce whether or not she will be rerunning<br />for president. He has already confirmed that he<br />will not be running against her in the democratic<br />primaries. Kamala Harris has not confirmed or<br />denied whether she will be running for president<br />in 2028, but she has a hypothetical field support<br />of 17%.","Eva Carnes (75%): President Trump will likely<br />not pardon any high profile and controversial<br />individuals before the end of the midterm<br />election cycle, however he is likely to pardon<br />more low-risk and less high profile individuals<br />who have been in on drug charges, counterfeit<br />currency, and similar violations. The most recent<br />pardon from Donald Trump was on September 8,<br />where only 1 individual was pardoned for drug<br />charges. Prior to this, Trump pardoned 23 people<br />on September the 3rd for similar charges.","Eva Carnes (65%): The race between Collins and<br />Troy Jackson, with recent polls showing Jackson<br />being slightly ahead of Collins. However, polls<br />are not the most accurate and Collins has some<br />advantages over Jackson. Collins is the incumbent<br />which means that she has name recognition and<br />she has an established voter base. She also has<br />been able to defend her seat even when Trump lost<br />Maine's vote in 2024. She has strong support from<br />older voters, who are more likely to vote than<br />their younger counterparts. Her approval ratings<br />are 45-49% positive. But, her disapproval ratings<br />are 48-54% which leads me to be less decisive with<br />this prediction.","Hailey Chae (25%): Newsom is clearly considering<br />a 2028 presidential campaign and has been building<br />a national political profile, so I think an<br />eventual campaign is a realistic possibility.<br />Newsom said about 2 weeks ago that it depends on<br />whether Kamala Harris announces she is running in<br />2028. Also, his kids seem not to be too keen on<br />him running. However, announcing before November<br />19 is a much narrower question. The 2026 midterms<br />are November 3, leaving Newsom only 16 days<br />afterward to make a formal announcement. He could<br />decide to wait and see how the midterms affect the<br />Democratic field before announcing. Because there<br />is strong evidence that he is considering a run,<br />but much less evidence that he plans to announce<br />immediately after the midterms","Hailey Chae (52%): The main reason I am not<br />lowering the probability is that Trump has used<br />his clemency power frequently during his current<br />term. According to the Department of Justice, he<br />issued 17 pardons in July and another 23 pardons,<br />along with six commutations, on September 3,<br />followed by another pardon on September 8. This<br />shows that additional pardons are a realistic<br />possibility, not an unusual event. However, the<br />question has a relatively short time window, with<br />only about a month remaining before Election Day.<br />Trump has also now shifted much of his attention<br />toward the midterm elections, including a 32-day<br />campaign tour supporting Republican candidates. A<br />new controversial pardon during this period could<br />create another news story for candidates to deal<br />with, which gives the administration a reason<br />to delay some clemency decisions until after the<br />election.","Hailey Chae (43%): The race is extremely close,<br />with recent polls showing Collins and Democratic<br />candidate Troy Jackson within a few points. Some<br />polls put Collins slightly ahead, while others<br />put Jackson ahead, so there is no clear favorite.<br />One reason Collins could win is her history of<br />attracting voters beyond the Republican base.<br />In 2020, she won reelection by about 9 points<br />even though Maine voted for Joe Biden by about 9<br />points. Her reputation as a moderate Republican<br />and her long record of serving Maine could help<br />her again. However, Maine has continued to lean<br />Democratic, and increasing partisan polarization<br />could make ticket-splitting harder. Jackson<br />is also leading in some recent polls, and<br />issues surrounding Collins's record on judicial<br />nominations could motivate Democratic voters.","Hannah Hartley (20%): The Polymarket prediction<br />for Newsom announcing his run for president sits<br />at 17% by the end of the year. Because he said<br />he is waiting for Kamala Harris to announce her<br />run, and he will not run if she does, there is a<br />chance he never announces. We have to wait on her<br />decision, then he would have to create a strategy<br />and campaign, so I don't think it is likely to<br />happen before Nov. 19.","Hannah Hartley (70%): Because there is a chance<br />that democrats may take control of congress during<br />the midterms, I could imagine that Trump may issue<br />pardons beforehand, as clemency oversight will<br />
351increase with democratic control. While I do not<br />believe this is certain, due to the unpredictable<br />nature of the White House right now, I do think it<br />is likely.","Hannah Hartley (43%): I still believe that she<br />is slightly less likely to win due to the overall<br />approval rating of Trump and the potential<br />desire to flip the Senate blue. While Collins<br />is typically a moderate republican, her votes<br />have contributed to going against views she<br />claims to support. I believe there is overall<br />dissatisfaction with certain aspects of the<br />economy, with the heating costs, etc., but the<br />rank-choice voting may ultimately help her.","Haven Priem (45%): I think that he will wait<br />until after midterm elections and the aftermath<br />has settled so the spotlight in a sense can be on<br />him. He has also stated that he will not run if<br />Kamala Harris decides to run because of political<br />overlap, potentially splitting the democratic<br />vote.","Haven Priem (25%): I think that he will wait<br />till after midterms. Using the midterm aftermath<br />and all of the newly elected representatives and<br />senators as a distraction for him to start issuing<br />pardons. As well typically presidents will start<br />issuing pardons later in their term.","Haven Priem (55%): Everyone brought a lot of great<br />knowledge to the conversation today that slightly<br />swayed my mind toward yes, she will get reelected.<br />Someone brought up a good point that this will be<br />her 6th time running meaning that she's already<br />won a lot, she is also from maine so she has built<br />an image there.","Isabella Picciano (15%): I started from the<br />outside view considering when most candidates<br />generally announce their campaigns. Most refrain<br />from announcing in January or February to avoid<br />strict Federal Election Commission financial<br />disclosure rules. When candidates wait until April<br />or May, they can receive fundraising more quietly<br />and not have to reveal it right away. This gives<br />us a low base rate probability. Further lowering<br />that probability is Newsom's previous statement<br />that he would wait until after the 2026 midterms<br />to make an official decision regarding his<br />potential candidacy. If he waits until after the<br />midterms. He would have just 16 days to reflect on<br />the results and decide if he wants to run before<br />the questions deadline on November 19th. Reuters<br />however, reports that Newsom has visited South<br />Carolina and New Hampshire and has $4 million<br />in his PAC indicating mere interest in running<br />rather than a definitive declaration. Similarly,<br />CBS reported that Newsom said he wants to focus on<br />passing Proposition 50 which isnât concluded until<br />November 4th, further reinforcing the small window<br />of time in which he would have to reflect if he<br />wants to run. He also stated in a Youtube video<br />I found, that he would not run for president if<br />Kamala Harris runs, placing another third factor<br />to his decision that I donât think will occur<br />prior to November 19th.","Isabella Picciano (80%): I started from the<br />outside view by considering the rate at which<br />Trump has been issuing pardons. As tracked<br />by ballotpedia, since January 2025 Trump has<br />issued more than 1700 pardons and commutations.<br />The official DOJ lists a more detailed version<br />illustrating that on June 4th, Trump issued<br />1 pardon, 17 pardons on July 3, 23 pardons on<br />September 3, and 1 pardon on September 8. This<br />totals 42 pardons in the past three months further<br />demonstrating how Trump has continuously been<br />exercising his presidential right to pardon.<br />Additionally, on April 30, 2026, the White House<br />released a statement announcing the appointment of<br />Alice Marie Johnson as âPardon Czar,â an entirely<br />new position created by Trump's administration.<br />This demonstrates how pardons have evolved as a<br />more pressing, important issue for Trump. Many<br />prediction markets have high probability estimates<br />for this question as well. Further, on September<br />9th, when asked if he would consider pardoning<br />Michael Cohen, he said he would if \"everything is<br />checked out.â This reveals how Trump remains open<br />to granting additional pardons. One factor that<br />may thwart Trump from pardoning someone is the<br />midterms. An action that is highly disagreeable<br />may draw âsharp congressional scrutiny\" and pave a<br />way for democrats to regain some influence in the<br />House.","Isabella Picciano (45%): First, I researched what<br />polls are presently predicting for this forecast<br />to establish a base rate. The New York Times puts<br />Collins ahead of Jackson 49%-46%. The New York<br />Times margin of error is large so 3 points is<br />not something we can entirely hinge on. 270towin,<br />however, details the predictions of 6 major<br />pollsters including Umass Lowell, Siena College,<br />Quantus Insights, YouGov, CNN, and Fox News. All<br />of which have similar predictions as New York<br />times (48-46, 47-43, 49-51,etc). This demonstrates<br />that there is no clear leading candidate as of<br />right now. One piece of evidence I found that<br />raises the probability that Collins will win is<br />that she won her last election into the senate<br />51% to 42.4%. This indicates that Maine, a state<br />mainly composed of Democratic voters, supported<br />her. Additionally, Maine Voting Star indicates<br />that she has significantly more campaign funds<br />than Jackson. Jackson has around $5 million which<br />is âstill below the $11 million cash on hand<br />incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins<br />reported.â Collins is also receiving financial<br />endorsements from a political organization<br />closely affiliated with Senate Majority Leader<br />John Thune according to Axios. Further evidence<br />
351supporting Collins is that Jacksonâs party is not<br />fully united behind him. According to Reuters ,<br />Governor Janet Mills has not formally endorsed<br />him. Additionally, Jackson is replacing the<br />previous nominee, Graham Platner, who dropped<br />out after sexual assault allegations. This puts<br />Jackson in a tough spot: less campaign funds and<br />less time to accumulate support. Evidence that<br />supports his election however is the fact that<br />Maine is primarily democratic. The state voted<br />blue in 2024 for the presidential election which<br />doesnât guarantee Jackson to win, but gives him<br />a leg over Collins. Finally, Vox Policy mentions<br />how Collinsâs view on abortion can significantly<br />impact her campaign. According to the source, â72%<br />of Mainers support legal abortion access.â Also,<br />sources from Reuters emphasize Collinsâs âclose<br />tiesâ to the national GOP which gives Jackson<br />another way to argue against her. Consistent<br />advertising that persuades voters that Collins is<br />too radical or âtoo republicanâ will significantly<br />thwart democratic voters in Maine from voting for<br />her in opposition. Thus, I predict a 45% chance<br />Collins wins.","Jacob Nabors (24%): Newsom has repeatedly stated<br />that he would wait until after the midterms to<br />decide if he was going to run. This timeline does<br />not give him much time to decide and then announce<br />his candidacy. While it is still likely that he<br />could do so, I don't think that it will happen<br />before November 19th.","Jacob Nabors (86%): President Trump has issued<br />an enormous amount of pardons in his time as<br />president. So far, he has issued around 1,700<br />(1,500 where for January 6th individuals). Trump<br />issues his pardons in batches and does so roughly<br />once or twice a month, with some months having<br />even more than that. Trump by-passes traditional<br />ways of issuing the pardons and has granted<br />several during his presidency, it is unlikely that<br />this trend will stop in the next six weeks.","Jacob Nabors (64%): Collins is a five-year<br />incumbent for the state of Maine and has the<br />election infrastructure to match that. She has,<br />however, recently come under fire for her position<br />with President Trump. Collins runs as a Republican<br />in a state that has leaned left and is starting<br />to lean even more left. She positions herself as<br />more centrist, but does not run as a Democrat to<br />keep the Republican base she has built up. She<br />is likely to win again, but she is facing more<br />scrutiny than she has in the past.","Jason Eappen (15%): Started off with polymarket<br />odds as a baseline where AOC and Gavin Newsom<br />have a relativily 17% and 16% odds of becoming the<br />nominee for 2028. That means that he is currently<br />almost tied to the lead. He has traveled around<br />the country essential campaigning. He has shown<br />up with senate candidates running for office<br />this election cycle. There are a few factors<br />influencing his candidacy...he said he will not<br />run for president if Kalama harris runs...meaning<br />we have to factor in whether she will declare<br />for the presidency which polymarket has her at a<br />7% chance of winning. Meaning, it is more likely<br />than not she will try and earn the nomination. If<br />that happens, Gavin Newsome would more likely than<br />not run. Outside of the inside factors affecting<br />this race, I think it is important to also look<br />at the previous four election cycles to see<br />when candidates declared for office in previous<br />presidential cycles. Outside of president trump<br />in 2022 declaring for the office on November 15th,<br />few if any declare for the presidency almost 2<br />years before. The majority of candidates declare<br />in Janurary or spring the next year. Meaning with<br />two options of declaring in the Spring and Kalama<br />Harris potenially running, Gavin Newsom would less<br />liekly declare before November 19th.","Jason Eappen (85%): The pardon power of the<br />president has been under a renewed spotlight post<br />President Joe Biden's preempitve pardons before he<br />left office. Trump has used the power of pardon to<br />pardon alot of his political allies and people he<br />has deemed had been prosecuted unfairly. Moreover,<br />admisntrations tend to spike in use of pardons<br />during high stakes elections which this upcoming<br />midterm is. Democrats have promised to investigate<br />the Trump family and its deals. Meaning Trump<br />is more likely to pardon his family before the<br />investigations kick in. Moreover, under the DOJ<br />pardon tracker - we can see president trump has<br />pardoned atleast one person a month outside of<br />August and some selective months. But given the<br />closeness to the election it is bound to come<br />before the midterm election.","Jason Eappen (65%): Susan Collins has been a<br />political surivor over the course of her six terms<br />in the Maine Senate. She has continually defied<br />the odds espically when she has been down the<br />polls. Her moderate, at times anti-Trump rtheoric,<br />has positioned her well in a state that turned<br />Democratic. She has a couple of political winds<br />blowing her way and some againist, which is why<br />my prediction sits at 65 percent. The Democrats<br />struggled with candidate selection since the drop<br />of Graham Planter from the race. Troy Jackson has<br />been able to make up ground, but in the polls is<br />still neck and neck with Susan Collins. This is<br />bad news from the Dems because in previous races<br />
351where Susan Collins was on the ballot she was<br />behind in the polling, which suggests that Susan<br />Collins may have a good chance of winning. At the<br />same time there is still political disapproval<br />of the Republicans. With this being an off year<br />election, party in power does not do as well<br />plus with Trump having some of the worse approval<br />ratings mimicing his 2018, Republicans in general<br />may struggle during the midterm year. Susan<br />Collins has been a political stallion, and it is<br />more likely than not she succeds.","Jordan Sanderson (45%): Multiple candidates for<br />2028 are positioning themselves through travel,<br />fundraising , and media appearances but as of<br />recent there arenât any formal campaigns launched.<br />Gavin Newsome has already traveled to South<br />Carolina and has talked about considering for<br />running, but he also expressed hesitation about<br />running if Kamala Harris also wants to.","Jordan Sanderson (53%): Maine is primarily a<br />blue state in several presidential cycles, but<br />Colins has had incumbency and served 6 terms as<br />Republican. However a lot of Republicans tend to<br />hold seats in other parts of Maine's political<br />systems, so I don't think her political position<br />is an outright large factor. Her alignment with<br />Trump, however, could hurt her position in the<br />polls. Incumbency advantage can also slump over<br />time, especially if there is a scandal (which<br />Collins does have, event contractor and accepting<br />monetary campaign contributions). Voter turnout in<br />Maine is also comparatively higher than, say, the<br />South and their history with voter suppression.","Joshua Mui (20%): Newsom's said that he's waiting<br />until after midterms, which gives him more or<br />less two weeks between then and the deadline<br />to announce a campaign. I don't think he will,<br />with little rumor currently surrounding him,<br />little media push to get his name in the general<br />spotlight, and I doubt he will be the first<br />entrant into what will undoubtedly be a crowded<br />Democratic primary.","Joshua Mui (40%): Probably? It's a little vibes<br />based. The pattern of pardons for Trump's second<br />term has been pretty consistent as every few<br />months for when Trump has been in office, at least<br />in his second term. Trump's first term didn't<br />nearly see as many pardons, but nothing past the<br />summer. With the most recent batch of pardons in<br />September, there's a decent chance that he may be<br />done until past midterms to avoid controversy.","Joshua Mui (55%): The flow of the crowd seems to<br />be leaning towards yes, and I'm a little inclined<br />to follow. The likelihood she loses is also<br />still pretty high, and the data shows that that's<br />certainly possible. I expect a tight race, but<br />I think that Collins' history of outperforming<br />polls, combined with the rurality of Maine makes<br />this honestly too close to call, but I'll lean<br />towards Collins.","Julia Krehbiel (41%): I think that it is unlikely<br />that Newsom will announce before November 19th<br />because of how close that is to the midterms and<br />the fact that he said he would wait until after<br />the midterms to announce anything. I think that<br />it would be more like a month after the midterms.<br />Also, when considering when other candidates<br />usually announce, it is usually more into the<br />winter months, and I think that Newsom would not<br />necessarily be one of the first candidates to<br />announce and instead would want to further assess<br />before he announced his candidacy.","Julia Krehbiel (62%): I think that it is probable<br />that President Trump will issue another pardon<br />before the midterms. I think that due to the<br />frequency and large number of pardons he has<br />issued in his second term, the upcoming midterms<br />are only going to fuel his willingness to keep<br />issuing them. He has also recently publicly<br />announced that he is considering issuing a pardon<br />for Michael Cohen, and with him recently just<br />pardoning 23 people in the beginning of September<br />an additional one person is not unlikely.","Julia Krehbiel (43%): I am lowering my probability<br />but only slightly. This is after I heard the<br />discussion of how gender and the proportion of men<br />to women in Maine play into these elections. Also<br />after considering that this is the first election<br />that she has had after the overturning of roe<br />v wade I think that these dynamics could shift.<br />This makes me feel as thought her reelection is<br />slightly unlikely due to the large number of women<br />in Maine and the likelihood that they will be<br />attracted to the Democratic candidate this year.","Kiefer Adams (30%): I am forecasting a 30%<br />probability that Gavin Newsom will announce his<br />candidacy for the 2028 presidential race before<br />November 19th. My reasoning for this is that<br />he has formerly said that he would not consider<br />a presidential run until after the midterms,<br />indicating he would not announce until after<br />that. That leaves much less time for him to make<br />his official announcement. Similarly, it would<br />be considered relatively early to announce his<br />campaign before December of January of 2027, so<br />I believe the probability is far less than 50%.<br />However, I am maintaining a 30% chance that he<br />does because he may want to ride the coattails of<br />a Democrat victory in the midterms and announce<br />shortly after the elections.","Kiefer Adams (65%): I am forecasting a 65%<br />probability that President Trump issues any new<br />
351pardons between now and the midterm elections.<br />My reasoning behind this is that President Trump<br />has recently been very active in pardoning, with<br />large batches on July 3rd and September 3rd. This<br />has put my forecast over 50%, but I also took<br />into consideration that Trump may use pardons as<br />a political ploy leading up to the elections to<br />gain support from a certain group, which increased<br />my probability. However, I also considered that<br />during Trump's first term, he did not pardon<br />anyone during this window prior to the midterms,<br />so I was not too certain in the pardons occurring.","Kiefer Adams (52%): I am revising my forecast<br />down to 52% probability that Susan Collins will<br />win re-election in Maine. My reasoning is that<br />her approval rating seems to be tracking with<br />Trump's, despite her attempts to distance herself<br />from Trump's administration. Additionally, her<br />voter base in Maine may have shrunk because of<br />her involvement in the Dobbs decision. I am still<br />placing her chances of winning the election above<br />50% because of her tendency to over perform the<br />polls.","Krish Chinta (3%): Newsom has said he'll decide<br />only after the 2026 midterms. This week he went<br />further, saying \"thereâs no such thing as a<br />deadline\" and that he needs to consult with his<br />family before making a decision. He has also said<br />he would not run if Harris does, and she has not<br />decided nor is it likely that she will before<br />the midterms. November 19 is only 16 days after<br />Election Day, he's still governor until January,<br />and as a well-known potential candidate has few<br />incentives for such an early head start.","Krish Chinta (75%): Based on Trump's history of<br />granting clemency, I think the midterms will not<br />affect whether he grants pardons or not, only the<br />potential political divisiveness of the pardons.<br />Looking at this pardon history, especially during<br />the 2nd term, his lack of restraint leads me to<br />believe there are at least 3:1 odds of at least<br />
351one new pardon.","Krish Chinta (40%): Considering class discussion,<br />I think the two big groups to consider are:<br />uninformed, mostly rural voters not captured well<br />by the polls and Democrats who split the ticket<br />for Biden and Collins. I think for both of these<br />groups, the trend in voting patterns should be<br />against Collins. Uninformed voters tend to use<br />heuristics when voting, and the same patterns<br />predicting a blue wave in the heartland will be<br />relevant here, most notably the rise in fuel,<br />especially diesel, prices, for which they will<br />assign blame to Collins and the Republican Party.<br />For the latter group, the ProPublica bribery<br />scandal, Dobbs decision, and Collins Republican<br />party affiliation should be enough to at turn<br />at least a few Democrats against her. While this<br />mechanistic thinking cannot determine magnitude of<br />shift, based on this rationale and reputable poll<br />aggregates, I think it is more likely than not<br />that Collins will lose re-election.","Leah Mojica (37%): I think Gavin Newsom is<br />unlikely to run unless Kamala Harris doesn't.<br />He said himself that he wouldn't run if she did,<br />so I started by evaluating the chances she would<br />run. There is a good amount of speculation that<br />she will, and I would place that probability at<br />about 70-80%. However, Kamala said she will not<br />announce her candidacy until after the midterm<br />elections, which take place on November 3rd.<br />Therefore, Newsom's announcement seems to depend<br />on hers, and if she will not announce until after<br />the elections, I think that leaves a very narrow<br />window for him to announce his candidacy. So, I<br />am not saying that he will or won't announce his<br />candidacy, but I do not think it is likely to<br />happen before November 19th.","Leah Mojica (50%): President Trump has issued<br />more than 1,700 clemency actions during his second<br />term, including frequent batches for political<br />allies, January 6 defendants, and white-collar<br />cases. The last time he issued a pardon was in<br />July, and I think he is likely to issue many more<br />before the end of his presidential term. However,<br />I am not sure about the timing due to midterm<br />elections, but Trump doesn't usually seem to care<br />much about how people react to the things he does,<br />so I really am not sure.","Leah Mojica (62%): I think there is a 62% chance<br />that Susan Collins will win re-election because<br />she has won the past 6 elections as the incumbent.<br />Maine has a majority democratic population, yet<br />she has still maintained majority support, even as<br />a moderate republican. Also, Maine's population is<br />quite old, and older generations tend to be more<br />averse to change. Furthermore, she consistently<br />outperforms the polls, so even though predictions<br />have her ranging in the 40s, her history shows<br />that she tends to highly outperform these odds.","Matthew Fern (35%): I do not believe that there<br />is any rush for Newsome to announce his candidacy<br />for President in 2028 before November 19th. While<br />he has certainly teased the idea and been asked<br />directly, he has said that there is no timeline,<br />and that he won't announce his candidacy if Harris<br />runs. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump<br />didn't announce his candidacy until November<br />15th, and a Democrat did not announce their<br />candidacy until later (though Biden was the<br />assumed candidate). In 2020, only 3 candidates had<br />announced by November of 2018 (and they were all<br />in 2017--far in advance).","Matthew Fern (45%): This is a really difficult<br />question because I feel as though I never really<br />know what is going on in Trump's mind. That being<br />said, between now and midterms (November 3rd) is<br />only 34 days. While Trump has issued a great deal<br />of pardons in his second term, most were at the<br />front end of the term. On September 3rd, he issued<br />23 pardons, and on September 8th, he issued one.<br />Before this, he had not issues any pardons since<br />July 3rd. Last year, he issued one pardon between<br />September 30th-November 3rd. Because of this,<br />as well as the fact that there are not very many<br />pardons I can think of as pressing, I think it<br />is slightly less likely than a coin flip. I also<br />think that, with the midterms, Trump will just<br />generally be a lot more busy and have less time to<br />offer pardons.","Matthew Fern (60%): I am staying strong with<br />my prediction of 60% that she will win her<br />reelection. I think that Jackson had too little<br />time and too little experience to be able to<br />flip a 5-term incumbent seat. While Collins<br />is struggling with her corruption scandal<br />and abortion, she has never been a \"perfect<br />candidate,\" and yet here she is 30 years later.<br />I think it is just so incredibly uncommon for<br />someone to lose their election going into their<br />
351sixth term that I do not think it will happen to<br />Collins.","Megan Tate (15%): I estimate there is a 15% chance<br />that Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for<br />the 2028 presidential race before November 19.<br />First, Newsom has indicated that any decision<br />regarding a 2028 presidential campaign will come<br />after the 2026 midterm cycle and as his final term<br />as governor concludes in January 2027. On top of<br />that, Newsom explicitly stated that he would not<br />run for president if Kamala Harris decides to<br />run. Because Harris has not announced her decision<br />for 2028, I think he would want to wait for that.<br />There is always a chance, but I would be surprised<br />if Newsom announced his candidacy with the midterm<br />elections coming up.","Megan Tate (80%): I estimate there is an 80%<br />chance that President Trump will issue a new<br />pardon between now and the midterm election.<br />DOJ records show that Trump issued 30 pardons<br />on September 4, so clemency has been occurring<br />very recently. Rather than reserving clemency<br />for end-of-term periods, Trump has maintained<br />a steady, month-by-month pace of pardons, which<br />leads me to believe that there will be at least<br />one more before November. While there have been<br />reports of slowing clemency activity ahead of the<br />midterms, I believe this slowdown will not prevent<br />another pardon.","Megan Tate (49%): I estimate there is a 49% chance<br />that Susan Collins will win re-election in Maine.<br />On the one hand, Collins has a proven ability to<br />win Maine as a Republican because her personal<br />brand is unusually strong. Plus, as chair of the<br />Senate Appropriations Committee, she has a strong<br />argument that her seniority can deliver federal<br />resources to Maine. However, on the other hand,<br />the latest numbers aren't particularly favorable<br />to her, with the RCP average putting Jackson<br />at 47.4% and Collins at 46.4%. We also need to<br />take into consideration her recent allegations<br />concerning a defense contractor. I think this race<br />will be very close, and I am interested to see the<br />outcome.","Mera Moucharrafie (50%): As of late, Gavin Newsom<br />has declined to set a specific date/timeline of<br />his candidacy. From his timeline, we know that<br />back in October of 2025, Newsom told CBS that he<br />would actually consider running for president in<br />2028 after this year's midterm elections. A year<br />later, in September, Newsom also told CBS that if<br />Kamala was re-entering the presidential race, he<br />would not enter. According to an AP News article<br />published on September 30, 2026, when Newsom was<br />asked about a timeline he stated \"that moment will<br />arrive when it arrives.\" I believe this question<br />is as equally likely to happen than not.","Mera Moucharrafie (50%): President Trump has<br />regularly granted pardons throughout his second<br />term. Just a few months before, according to the<br />DOJ, on July 3, 2026, Trump issued 17 new pardons<br />and on September 3, 2026, Trump issued 23 new<br />pardons. However, on September 8th, he only issued<br />one new pardon. This is kind of a toss-up question<br />as his pardons can be unpredictable.","Mera Moucharrafie (50%): From the data, we can<br />see that this election is competitive. According<br />to Real Clear Polling, Democrat Troy Jackson<br />is actually favored, 47.2 to 46.3. In a recent<br />poll, however, according to an article published<br />by Bangor Daily News on September 24th, 2026,<br />Collins is leading Jackson. The election seems to<br />be neck and neck; Collins is leading Jackson 49%<br />to 46% among 619 voters, as reported by Portland<br />Press Harold. In 2020, Collins won by a nine point<br />margin, therefore showing that it is possible to<br />happen again. The state of Maine is also known<br />for having the oldest population in the US, with<br />the average age being 45 years old; in this case,<br />these voters have a very strong track record of<br />voting/staying loyal to incumbents.","Michelle Villanueva (15%): I predict a 15% chance<br />that Gavin Newsom will announce his candidacy<br />for the 2028 presidential race before Nov 19.<br />The biggest reason I think it is possible is<br />that Newsom has openly acknowledged that he<br />is considering a 2028 run and has already been<br />traveling to early-primary states. However, Iâm<br />keeping my prediction low because Newsom has<br />repeatedly framed his decision as something he<br />would make after the 2026 midterms, which are on<br />November 3, leaving only about two weeks before<br />the November 19 deadline. Just on September 30,<br />when asked whether he had set a deadline for<br />deciding, Newsom said that âthat moment will<br />arrive when it arrives,â suggesting that an<br />announcement is not imminent. He has also said he<br />
351would not run if Kamala Harris enters the race,<br />and Harris has not yet announced her own decision","Michelle Villanueva (70%): I predict a 70% chance<br />that President Trump will issue at least one new<br />pardon before the November 3 midterm election.<br />The biggest reason I think this is likely is that<br />Trump has continued granting pardons throughout<br />2026 rather than limiting them to one particular<br />time of year. The Justice Department records 17<br />pardons on July 3, 23 more on September 3, and<br />another pardon on September 8. I also saw that<br />on September 9, Trump said he would consider<br />pardoning his former attorney Michael Cohen,<br />showing that additional pardons were still under<br />consideration less than two months before the<br />election. However, pardons are discretionary<br />and there is no publicly confirmed schedule for<br />another one before November 3","Michelle Villanueva (40%): I predict that there's<br />a 40% that Susan Collins will win reelection<br />in Maine. One point that made me a little<br />more confident in Collins was her history of<br />outperforming the polls, especially in 2020<br />when she won by a much larger margin than<br />polling suggested. The class also brought up her<br />incumbency advantage, her strong personal brand<br />in Maine, and the fact that ranked-choice voting<br />can sometimes benefit more moderate candidates.<br />However, her approval rating is around 38%, while<br />her disapproval is around 54%, which shows she<br />is entering the race with a lot of dissatisfied<br />voters. Additionally, her vote to confirm Brett<br />Kavanaugh could still hurt her with voters who<br />connect that vote to the overturning of Roe v.<br />Wade. On top of that, Trump's approval in Maine<br />was discussed as being only around 30-40% because<br />of voters who are not happy with economic issues<br />like heating costs. Collins is a Republican and<br />has been criticized for aligning with Trump on<br />some issues, and that dissatisfaction among voters<br />could make the political environment in Maine more<br />favorable to Democrats and make it harder for her<br />to win reelection.","Parker Buckroyd (28%): Newsom's trajectory<br />towards announcing his candidacy for president is<br />certainly in motion, but I do not have high belief<br />in the chance he will announce it before November<br />19th. Elections on November 3rd leaves only about<br />two weeks before the November 19th deadline, where<br />results could weigh greatly on his announcement.<br />Additionally, Newsom said he would not run if<br />Kamala Harris did, and she has expressed that she<br />is in no rush to announce her candidacy. These<br />factors lead me to forecast there is a 28% chance<br />that Newsom announces his candidacy for the 2028<br />presidential race before November 19.","Parker Buckroyd (62%): Trump has just completed<br />a batch of 30 pardons and commutations announced<br />in September 2026. After tracking his pardons and<br />the lengths in between them, recent gaps ranged<br />from five to 112 days, suggesting that another<br />pardon is plausible but not guaranteed. With the<br />possibility of pardoning Michael Cohen, I believe<br />there is a 62% chance trump issues any new pardons<br />between now and the midterm election.Trump's<br />unpredictability makes me wary to estimate any<br />higher.","Parker Buckroyd (51%): Collin's Kavanaugh vote<br />is probably the strongest vulnerability in her<br />record. In 2018, Collins voted to confirm Brett<br />Kavanaugh after saying she believed he regarded<br />Roe v. Wade as settled precedent. Kavanaugh<br />subsequently joined the five-justice majority<br />in Dobbs that overturned Roe. Collins called the<br />decision wrong but said again in June 2026 that<br />she does not regret voting to confirm him, this<br />is ideologically incompatible and unpopular among<br />Maine's woman voters, who make up the majority of<br />Maine's population and have had a slightly higher<br />rate of voting than men. But, Senate incumbency<br />is historically a substantial electoral advantage.<br />Brookings's historical data show that among<br />senators who actually sought reelection, 83.9%<br />
351won in 2020, 100% in 2022, and 88% in 2024. These<br />mixed factors lead me to believe that Collins has<br />a 51% chance of winning re-election, and it will<br />most definitely be a close race.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (15%): It is highly<br />unlikely that Newsom will announce his candidacy<br />for presidency of the United States before<br />Nov. 19th. For two reasons. First, presidential<br />campaigns are usually announced in spring of the<br />preceding year of the election and two, he has<br />repeatedly announced that he isn't interested<br />in running if Kamala Harris runs. However,<br />politicians usually do not say the truth or reveal<br />final plans until they do them. Overall, though,<br />it is very vey unlikely he will announce before<br />Nov. 19th","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (50%): Clemency and<br />presidential pardons are issued without notices<br />under President Trump's Article II powers. Since<br />midterm elections are around the corner and<br />Republicans are the underdogs in the races, it<br />is as likely as a coin flip that he will issue<br />pardons.","Santiago Bottini Azugaray (53%): Trump is not<br />very popular, and Maine has one of the highest<br />turnouts of any state within midterm elections.<br />It is highly likely that Maine would elect her<br />again as a swing Republican. However, due to her<br />confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh and the Dobbs<br />decision, it could heavily impact her. Trump's<br />Maine approval is below 40%, but the controversies<br />along the Democratic nomination with the<br />sudden decision of Platner of dropping from the<br />Democratic nomination.","Sarah Gregory (45%): Generally it seems like many<br />announce their candidacy in Spring of the year<br />before the election. So in this case, Spring of<br />2027. President Trump announced his candidacy<br />in 2022 in November and so did Corey Stapleton,<br />so it is not unheard of. California Governor<br />Gavin Newsom stated in a Politico Interview that<br />\"there's no such thing as a deadline\" for a 2028<br />presidential timeline, meaning it is not known<br />if he will announce a run before November 19. I<br />believe with the midterms, Newsom will wait to<br />announce until 2027. On the other hand, if there<br />is a blue wave subsequent to the midterms, it may<br />pose as a great opportunity to create momentum<br />around his candidacy.","Sarah Gregory (22%): I believe it is 22% probable<br />that president Trump will issue any news pardons<br />between now and the midterms. I think it is more<br />likely he will grant members of his staff and<br />the administration clemency, which is different<br />than pardons. Historically, only one president<br />in the last 10 years has issued a pardon between<br />October 1st and the midterm elections. On October<br />6th, 2022, President Joe Biden issued pardons to<br />thousands of U.S. citizens convicted of federal<br />offenses for simple possession of marijuana. In<br />Trumps last term he did not issue pardons prior<br />to the 2018 midterms nor did Obama prior to the<br />2014 midterms. Historically, presidents heavily<br />avoid granting clemency right before an election<br />to avoid political blowback, choosing instead to<br />issue the vast majority of their pardons during<br />their final months or days in office. With the<br />state of Republicans in the upcoming midterms<br />and the historical trends, I think it is unlikely<br />any pardons will be issued before the November<br />midterms. On the other hand, TIME Magazine did<br />that he is open to issuing preemptive pardons<br />to members of his administration before his term<br />ends. President Trump is also an unpredictable<br />president who is known for making bold and risky<br />moves. Plus, the Democrats will most likely gain<br />control of Congress. So, he may feel the only time<br />is now to issue pardons.","Sarah Gregory (47%): I raised my probability to<br />47 because in 2020 her approval rating was 41%<br />and still won by 9 points. Collins has been the<br />incumbent for over 20 years, winning reelection<br />5 times. Collins is the only Republican senator<br />representing a state that Harris carried in<br />the 2024 presidential election. She has run as<br />an independent and appealed to more moderate<br />voters. She is also claims to be an advocate<br />for reproductive rights. Many republican PACs<br />are funneling money towards her campaign since<br />the seat is highly contested and looking into<br />the primaries it does not look promising for<br />Republicans. However, with the increasing<br />polarization in Congress and among voters, I do<br />not believe her track record proves that she is a<br />moderate candidate. Senator Collins is also facing<br />controversy regarding Kaoâs campaign donations<br />to her Senate campaign in exchange for government<br />naval contracts. With the combination of the<br />controversy and increased polarization, I believe<br />there is a 42% chance that she will be reelected<br />in Maine.","Slate Jones (15%): I believe Newsom is very<br />unlikely to announce his candidacy for 2028 before<br />2027, let alone within the next 2 months. \"In<br />the four most recent presidential races in which<br />there was no incumbent, the nominees launched<br />their campaigns an average of 531 days before the<br />election took place.\" We are currently 769 days<br />away from 2028's presidential election, so it<br />seems very unlikely he will announce his campaign<br />so soon.","Slate Jones (42%): Trump just issued some pardons<br />in early September, and his schedule for pardoning<br />is very volatile. in 2025, he issued pardons<br />Jan-May, Oct-Dec, then in 2026 issued in Jan-Feb,<br />then June-July, then September. His schedule this<br />year seems much less active than last, and pardons<br />tend to cluster in December, and the thanksgiving<br />turkey will be pardoned after our deadline.","Slate Jones (45%): While Collins has almost 5<br />terms of incumbency under her belt, I would wager<br />that since her approval rating is at the lowest it<br />has ever been, she is likely going to underperform<br />her 2020 numbers. Midterms tend to be more<br />unfavorable than in presidential election years,<br />and she just had a financial scandal, and she has<br />become more aligned with Trump as of recent years<br />than before, so I believe there is a slight edge<br />for Jackson this election.","Will Steiner (5%): Newsom has explicitly stated<br />that he won't announce a run until after the<br />midterms, shortening the window for this to<br />resolve drastically. Newsom also said that he<br />won't run if Kamala Harris runs as well - which<br />could simply be smoke and mirrors, but if this is<br />true, he'll be inclined to wait and see if Kamala<br />is running. Most of the 2020 frontrunner Democrat<br />candidates announced their candidacies in December<br />2018 at the earliest, which would set Newsom<br />further ahead than typical if he were to announce<br />
351it mid-November. These combined factors make it<br />very unlikely that he will.","Will Steiner (60%): Trump has been on a frequent<br />pace delivering pardons in both his first and<br />second term. These pardons tend to be released in<br />large batches, with the most recent batch being<br />released September 3rd. Before that, Trump issued<br />relatively few pardons over the summer. Looking<br />at last year, Trump didn't issue a single pardon<br />in September but issued several in October. Given<br />this history, I think it's likely that Trump will<br />issue at least one, but it wouldn't surprise me if<br />he didn't.","Will Steiner (45%): This election still looks like<br />it could be a tossup to me. Kalshi has Jackson<br />favored to win by almost double the chance of<br />Collins, but recent polls seem to suggest this<br />might be slightly overstated. In times of high<br />prices and crisis, voters tend to prefer change,<br />suggesting Jackson has a slight edge. However,<br />polling data has consistently placed the two neck<br />and neck, with one rarely having a lead over the<br />other. Neither are stellar candidates, with the<br />Democratic image besmirched by Graham Platner and<br />voter frustration with Susan Collins. With both<br />parties disappointing the people, I suspect this<br />election will go to whichever party is able to<br />motivate its base enough to show up.","Ziyada R (35%): I am not so sure Gavin Newsom<br />would be in the position to announce his candidacy<br />for the 2028 presidential race before November<br />19, considering what he has been telling reporters<br />as of late. He claims he will\"not\" run if Kamala<br />Harris runs, and on this, Kamala Harris has<br />claimed she \"may\" run again. It seems more likely<br />that Harris would run again as she's already been<br />on the ballot before and has campaign experience.<br />Unless there is a large contributing factor that<br />would convince her to do otherwise, she likely<br />will run. And of Gavin Newsom's word holds any<br />truth, he will likely not be running in the 2028<br />presidential race before November 19?","Ziyada R (85%): It seems very very likely that<br />President Trump will issue new pardons before<br />midterm elections, as he has been continuously<br />doing in the past. Trump has been issuing regular<br />pardons throughout his presidency ever since<br />his second term. Towards the end of his first<br />term, he started getting used to issuing pardons,<br />though this type of clemency has been particularly<br />prominent as of his current term.","Ziyada R (45%): I kept my prediction at the<br />same rate because Susan Collins is running her<br />campaign in her home state of Maine, which she has<br />continuously won a Senate seat in since 1997. She<br />is a leaning centrist, toward Republican but is<br />still popular amongst split-ticket voters and has<br />a strong personal-brand in Maine. Althought Maine<br />is a blue leaning state, it still has supported<br />Collins for this long, so it is unlikely she will<br />underperform in this campaign. I didn't rank her<br />too high, though because of the criticism she's<br />been facing under word of her enabling the Trump<br />administration and her mixed responses on women's<br />health and abortion rights.","Ziyada Rakhimova (45%): There is a chance that<br />Collins will win re-election in Maine. The<br />historical pattern shows that in 2020, Collins<br />won by 8.6 points, and 37 points in 2014. Another<br />thing we know is that she has a long history<br />of winning in a Democrat-leaning state. Though,<br />as of late she's been under fire for her Trump<br />controversy after an FBI investigation of her<br />practices were shut down after he came into<br />office. 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351 352</div> 353</div> 354</section> 355<section id="leaderboard" class="level2"> 356<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="leaderboard">Leaderboard</h2> 357<div class="cell"> 358<div class="cell-output-display"> 359<table class="caption-top table table-sm table-striped small"> 360<colgroup> 361<col style="width: 5%"> 362<col style="width: 29%"> 363<col style="width: 15%"> 364<col style="width: 24%"> 365<col style="width: 24%"> 366</colgroup> 367<thead> 368<tr class="header"> 369<th style="text-align: right;">Rank</th> 370<th style="text-align: left;">Name</th> 371<th style="text-align: left;">Correct Calls</th> 372<th style="text-align: left;">Brier Score (Initial)</th> 373<th style="text-align: left;">Brier Score (Revised)</th> 374</tr> 375</thead> 376<tbody> 377<tr class="odd"> 378<td style="text-align: right;">1</td> 379<td style="text-align: left;">Jacob Nabors</td> 380<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 381<td style="text-align: left;">0.2558</td> 382<td style="text-align: left;">0.1450</td> 383</tr> 384<tr class="even"> 385<td style="text-align: right;">2</td> 386<td style="text-align: left;">Christopher Heyl</td> 387<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 388<td style="text-align: left;">0.148</td> 389<td style="text-align: left;">0.1655</td> 390</tr> 391<tr class="odd"> 392<td style="text-align: right;">3</td> 393<td style="text-align: left;">Will Steiner</td> 394<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 395<td style="text-align: left;">0.1783</td> 396<td style="text-align: left;">0.1665</td> 397</tr> 398<tr class="even"> 399<td style="text-align: right;">4</td> 400<td style="text-align: left;">Bain Fulcher</td> 401<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 402<td style="text-align: left;">0.1495</td> 403<td style="text-align: left;">0.1745</td> 404</tr> 405<tr class="odd"> 406<td style="text-align: right;">5</td> 407<td style="text-align: left;">Dean McDonald</td> 408<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 409<td style="text-align: left;">0.2085</td> 410<td style="text-align: left;">0.1795</td> 411</tr> 412<tr class="even"> 413<td style="text-align: right;">6</td> 414<td style="text-align: left;">Hailey Chae</td> 415<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 416<td style="text-align: left;">0.1515</td> 417<td style="text-align: left;">0.1839</td> 418</tr> 419<tr class="odd"> 420<td style="text-align: right;">7</td> 421<td style="text-align: left;">Michelle Villanueva</td> 422<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 423<td style="text-align: left;">0.1785</td> 424<td style="text-align: left;">0.1850</td> 425</tr> 426<tr class="even"> 427<td style="text-align: right;">8</td> 428<td style="text-align: left;">Joe Ornstein</td> 429<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 430<td style="text-align: left;">-</td> 431<td style="text-align: left;">0.1860</td> 432</tr> 433<tr class="odd"> 434<td style="text-align: right;">9</td> 435<td style="text-align: left;">Megan Tate</td> 436<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 437<td style="text-align: left;">0.171</td> 438<td style="text-align: left;">0.1896</td> 439</tr> 440<tr class="even"> 441<td style="text-align: right;">10</td> 442<td style="text-align: left;">Brian Sadenwasser</td> 443<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 444<td style="text-align: left;">0.2308</td> 445<td style="text-align: left;">0.1944</td> 446</tr> 447<tr class="odd"> 448<td style="text-align: right;">11</td> 449<td style="text-align: left;">Denton Alexander</td> 450<td style="text-align: left;">2/5</td> 451<td style="text-align: left;">0.415</td> 452<td style="text-align: left;">0.1973</td> 453</tr> 454<tr class="even"> 455<td style="text-align: right;">12</td> 456<td style="text-align: left;">Leah Mojica</td> 457<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 458<td style="text-align: left;">0.2875</td> 459<td style="text-align: left;">0.1990</td> 460</tr> 461<tr class="odd"> 462<td style="text-align: right;">13</td> 463<td style="text-align: left;">Caitlyn McMullen</td> 464<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 465<td style="text-align: left;">0.224</td> 466<td style="text-align: left;">0.2015</td> 467</tr> 468<tr class="even"> 469<td style="text-align: right;">14</td> 470<td style="text-align: left;">Isabella Picciano</td> 471<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 472<td style="text-align: left;">0.2006</td> 473<td style="text-align: left;">0.2021</td> 474</tr> 475<tr class="odd"> 476<td style="text-align: right;">15</td> 477<td style="text-align: left;">Edy Thompson</td> 478<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 479<td style="text-align: left;">0.2043</td> 480<td style="text-align: left;">0.2030</td> 481</tr> 482<tr class="even"> 483<td style="text-align: right;">16</td> 484<td style="text-align: left;">Mera Moucharrafie</td> 485<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 486<td style="text-align: left;">0.232</td> 487<td style="text-align: left;">0.2105</td> 488</tr> 489<tr class="odd"> 490<td style="text-align: right;">17</td> 491<td style="text-align: left;">Parker Buckroyd</td> 492<td style="text-align: left;">4/5</td> 493<td style="text-align: left;">0.2269</td> 494<td style="text-align: left;">0.2144</td> 495</tr> 496<tr class="even"> 497<td style="text-align: right;">18</td> 498<td style="text-align: left;">Brianna Speizer</td> 499<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 500<td style="text-align: left;">0.2584</td> 501<td style="text-align: left;">0.2220</td> 502</tr> 503<tr class="odd"> 504<td style="text-align: right;">19</td> 505<td style="text-align: left;">Jason Eappen</td> 506<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 507<td style="text-align: left;">0.3435</td> 508<td style="text-align: left;">0.2290</td> 509</tr> 510<tr class="even"> 511<td style="text-align: right;">20</td> 512<td style="text-align: left;">Haven Priem</td> 513<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 514<td style="text-align: left;">0.2485</td> 515<td style="text-align: left;">0.2310</td> 516</tr> 517<tr class="odd"> 518<td style="text-align: right;">21</td> 519<td style="text-align: left;">Hannah Hartley</td> 520<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 521<td style="text-align: left;">0.211</td> 522<td style="text-align: left;">0.2375</td> 523</tr> 524<tr class="even"> 525<td style="text-align: right;">22</td> 526<td style="text-align: left;">Matthew Fern</td> 527<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 528<td style="text-align: left;">0.2085</td> 529<td style="text-align: left;">0.2395</td> 530</tr> 531<tr class="odd"> 532<td style="text-align: right;">23</td> 533<td style="text-align: left;">Crowd</td> 534<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 535<td style="text-align: left;">0.222</td> 536<td style="text-align: left;">0.2407</td> 537</tr> 538<tr class="even"> 539<td style="text-align: right;">24</td> 540<td style="text-align: left;">Ziyada R</td> 541<td style="text-align: left;">0/5</td> 542<td style="text-align: left;">0.25</td> 543<td style="text-align: left;">0.2500</td> 544</tr> 545<tr class="odd"> 546<td style="text-align: right;">25</td> 547<td style="text-align: left;">Sarah Gregory</td> 548<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 549<td style="text-align: left;">0.2464</td> 550<td style="text-align: left;">0.2501</td> 551</tr> 552<tr class="even"> 553<td style="text-align: right;">26</td> 554<td style="text-align: left;">Ziyada Rakhimova</td> 555<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 556<td style="text-align: left;">0.3609</td> 557<td style="text-align: left;">0.2521</td> 558</tr> 559<tr class="odd"> 560<td style="text-align: right;">27</td> 561<td style="text-align: left;">Anya Biswas</td> 562<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 563<td style="text-align: left;">0.3555</td> 564<td style="text-align: left;">0.2559</td> 565</tr> 566<tr class="even"> 567<td style="text-align: right;">28</td> 568<td style="text-align: left;">Carter Ray</td> 569<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 570<td style="text-align: left;">0.255</td> 571<td style="text-align: left;">0.2684</td> 572</tr> 573<tr class="odd"> 574<td style="text-align: right;">29</td> 575<td style="text-align: left;">
575Julia Krehbiel</td> 576<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 577<td style="text-align: left;">0.3835</td> 578<td style="text-align: left;">0.2750</td> 579</tr> 580<tr class="even"> 581<td style="text-align: right;">30</td> 582<td style="text-align: left;">Kiefer Adams</td> 583<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 584<td style="text-align: left;">0.214</td> 585<td style="text-align: left;">0.2785</td> 586</tr> 587<tr class="odd"> 588<td style="text-align: right;">31</td> 589<td style="text-align: left;">Joshua Mui</td> 590<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 591<td style="text-align: left;">0.317</td> 592<td style="text-align: left;">0.2935</td> 593</tr> 594<tr class="even"> 595<td style="text-align: right;">32</td> 596<td style="text-align: left;">Jordan Sanderson</td> 597<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 598<td style="text-align: left;">0.2982</td> 599<td style="text-align: left;">0.2965</td> 600</tr> 601<tr class="odd"> 602<td style="text-align: right;">33</td> 603<td style="text-align: left;">Slate Jones</td> 604<td style="text-align: left;">2/5</td> 605<td style="text-align: left;">0.3495</td> 606<td style="text-align: left;">0.2985</td> 607</tr> 608<tr class="even"> 609<td style="text-align: right;">34</td> 610<td style="text-align: left;">Celina Simone</td> 611<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 612<td style="text-align: left;">0.2936</td> 613<td style="text-align: left;">0.3001</td> 614</tr> 615<tr class="odd"> 616<td style="text-align: right;">35</td> 617<td style="text-align: left;">Santiago Bottini Azugaray</td> 618<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 619<td style="text-align: left;">0.2485</td> 620<td style="text-align: left;">0.3071</td> 621</tr> 622<tr class="even"> 623<td style="text-align: right;">36</td> 624<td style="text-align: left;">Eva Carnes</td> 625<td style="text-align: left;">2/5</td> 626<td style="text-align: left;">0.2619</td> 627<td style="text-align: left;">0.3100</td> 628</tr> 629<tr class="odd"> 630<td style="text-align: right;">37</td> 631<td style="text-align: left;">Bianca Orfila-Molinet</td> 632<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 633<td style="text-align: left;">0.3764</td> 634<td style="text-align: left;">0.3145</td> 635</tr> 636<tr class="even"> 637<td style="text-align: right;">38</td> 638<td style="text-align: left;">Krish Chinta</td> 639<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 640<td style="text-align: left;">0.3926</td> 641<td style="text-align: left;">0.3197</td> 642</tr> 643<tr class="odd"> 644<td style="text-align: right;">39</td> 645<td style="text-align: left;">Dylan Goff</td> 646<td style="text-align: left;">1/5</td> 647<td style="text-align: left;">0.478</td> 648<td style="text-align: left;">0.4103</td> 649</tr> 650<tr class="even"> 651<td style="text-align: right;">40</td> 652<td style="text-align: left;">Ella Vars</td> 653<td style="text-align: left;">3/5</td> 654<td style="text-align: left;">0.3403</td> 655<td style="text-align: left;">0.4125</td> 656</tr> 657</tbody> 658</table> 659</div> 660</div> 661 662 663</section> 664 665</main> <!-- /main -->
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1065 1066</div> <!-- /content --> 1067 1068 1069 1070 1071</body></html>
Line numbers count LF bytes from the start of the resource, as the search results do. Vendor segments are library code the classifier recognised; they are stored but not indexed. Bytes are shown as Latin1 characters, one per byte.