https://npetroskynadeau.github.io/assets/data/breakeven_projection_data.js

1// Breakeven payroll growth — continuous spliced series (US)
2// Generated: 2026-10-02
3// Source: BLS via FRED + author's demographic projection (Census base),
4// seam-reconciled splice. Companion to breakeven_data.js. Solid <= BE_SPL_NOW,
5// dashed after (same series -> no jump at the join).
6// Join month (last actual): 2026-09; window 2016-01..2028-12.
7// FULL = full-sample drift; LOC = 36-month local drift (anchored at join).
8
9const BE_SPL_DATES = ["2016-01-01", "2016-02-01", "2016-03-01", "2016-04-01", "2016-05-01", "2016-06-01", "2016-07-01", "2016-08-01", "2016-09-01", "2016-10-01", "2016-11-01", "2016-12-01", "2017-01-01", "2017-02-01", "2017-03-01", "2017-04-01", "2017-05-01", "2017-06-01", "2017-07-01", "2017-08-01", "2017-09-01", "2017-10-01", "2017-11-01", "2017-12-01", "2018-01-01", "2018-02-01", "2018-03-01", "2018-04-01", "2018-05-01", "2018-06-01", "2018-07-01", "2018-08-01", "2018-09-01", "2018-10-01", "2018-11-01", "2018-12-01", "2019-01-01", "2019-02-01", "2019-03-01", "2019-04-01", "2019-05-01", "2019-06-01", "2019-07-01", "2019-08-01", "2019-09-01", "2019-10-01", "2019-11-01", "2019-12-01", "2020-01-01", "2020-02-01", "2020-03-01", "2020-04-01", "2020-05-01", "2020-06-01", "2020-07-01", "2020-08-01", "2020-09-01", "2020-10-01", "2020-11-01", "2020-12-01", "2021-01-01", "2021-02-01", "2021-03-01", "2021-04-01", "2021-05-01", "2021-06-01", "2021-07-01", "2021-08-01", "2021-09-01", "2021-10-01", "2021-11-01", "2021-12-01", "2022-01-01", "2022-02-01", "2022-03-01", "2022-04-01", "2022-05-01", "2022-06-01", "2022-07-01", "2022-08-01", "2022-09-01", "2022-10-01", "2022-11-01", "2022-12-01", "2023-01-01", "2023-02-01", "2023-03-01", "2023-04-01", "2023-05-01", "2023-06-01", "2023-07-01", "2023-08-01", "2023-09-01", "2023-10-01", "2023-11-01", "2023-12-01", "2024-01-01", "2024-02-01", "2024-03-01", "2024-04-01", "2024-05-01", "2024-06-01", "2024-07-01", "2024-08-01", "2024-09-01", "2024-10-01", "2024-11-01", "2024-12-01", "2025-01-01", "2025-02-01", "2025-03-01", "2025-04-01", "2025-05-01", "2025-06-01", "2025-07-01", "2025-08-01", "2025-09-01", "2025-10-01", "2025-11-01", "2025-12-01", "2026-01-01", "2026-02-01", "2026-03-01", "2026-04-01", "2026-05-01", "2026-06-01", "2026-07-01", "2026-08-01", "2026-09-01", "2026-10-01", "2026-11-01", "2026-12-01", "2027-01-01", "2027-02-01", "2027-03-01", "2027-04-01", "2027-05-01", "2027-06-01", "2027-07-01", "2027-08-01", "2027-09-01", "2027-10-01", "2027-11-01", "2027-12-01", "2028-01-01", "2028-02-01", "2028-03-01", "2028-04-01", "2028-05-01", "2028-06-01", "2028-07-01", "2028-08-01", "2028-09-01", "2028-10-01", "2028-11-01", "2028-12-01"];
10const BE_SPL_NOW = "2026-09-01";
11const BE_SPL_LR_FULL = [74.4, 74.4, 74.5, 74.5, 74.5, 74.5, 74.5, 74.5, 74.5, 74.5, 74.5, 74.6, 74.6, 74.6, 74.6, 74.6, 74.7, 74.7, 74.7, 74.7, 74.8, 74.8, 74.8, 74.9, 74.9, 74.9, 75.0, 75.0, 75.0, 75.1, 75.1, 75.2, 75.2, 75.3, 75.3, 75.4, 75.4, 75.4, 75.5, 75.5, 75.6, 75.7, 75.7, 75.8, 75.8, 75.9, 75.9, 76.0, 76.1, 76.1, 76.2, 76.2, 76.3, 76.4, 76.4, 76.5, 76.6, 76.6, 76.7, 76.8, 76.8, 76.9, 77.0, 77.0, 77.1, 77.2, 77.3, 77.3, 77.4, 77.5, 77.6, 77.6, 77.7, 77.8, 77.9, 78.0, 78.0, 78.1, 78.2, 78.3, 78.4, 78.4, 78.5, 78.6, 78.7, 78.8, 78.9, 78.9, 79.0, 79.1, 79.2, 79.3, 79.4, 79.5, 79.6, 79.6, 79.7, 79.8, 79.9, 80.0, 80.1, 80.2, 80.3, 80.4, 80.5, 80.5, 80.6, 80.7, 80.8, 80.9, 81.0, 81.1, 81.2, 81.3, 81.4, 81.5, 81.6, 81.7, 81.7, 81.8, 81.9, 82.0, 82.1, 82.2, 82.3, 82.4, 82.5, 82.6, 82.7, 82.8, 82.9, 83.0, 83.1, 83.2, 83.3, 83.4, 83.4, 83.5, 83.6, 83.7, 83.8, 83.9, 84.0, 84.1, 84.2, 84.3, 84.4, 84.5, 84.6, 84.7, 84.8, 84.9, 85.0, 85.1, 85.1, 85.2];
12const BE_SPL_SR_FULL = [109.8, 110.1, 110.5, 110.9, 111.3, 111.7, 112.1, 112.5, 113.0, 113.4, 113.9, 114.5, 115.0, 115.6, 116.2, 116.8, 117.4, 118.1, 118.7, 119.4, 120.1, 120.8, 121.5, 122.2, 122.9, 123.6, 124.2, 124.9, 125.5, 126.1, 126.7, 127.3, 127.8, 128.3, 128.8, 129.2, 129.6, 129.9, 130.2, 130.5, 130.7, 130.8, 130.9, 131.0, 131.0, 130.9, 130.8, 130.7, 130.5, 130.3, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 173.4, 177.1, 180.7, 184.2, 187.5, 190.6, 193.5, 196.3, 198.8, 201.

121, 203.1, 204.9, 206.5, 207.7, 208.7, 209.3, 209.7, 209.8, 209.6, 209.0, 208.2, 207.1, 205.6, 203.9, 201.8, 199.5, 196.9, 194.0, 190.8, 187.4, 183.8, 179.9, 175.8, 171.6, 167.1, 162.5, 157.7, 152.8, 147.8, 142.7, 137.5, 132.3, 127.0, 121.8, 116.5, 111.3, 106.1, 101.0, 95.9, 91.0, 86.2, 81.5, 77.0, 72.7, 68.5, 64.6, 60.8, 57.3, 54.0, 50.9, 48.1, 45.6, 43.3, 41.2, 39.5, 38.0, 36.7, 35.7, 35.0, 34.6, 34.4, 34.4, 34.7, 35.2, 35.9, 36.9, 38.0, 39.3, 40.8, 42.4, 44.2, 46.1, 48.2, 50.3, 52.5, 54.8, 57.1, 59.4, 61.8, 64.2, 66.5, 68.9, 71.1, 73.4, 75.5];
13const BE_SPL_LR_LOC = [77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.7, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.3, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.2, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.1, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 78.0, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.9, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.8, 77.7, 77.7];
14const BE_SPL_SR_LOC = [110.1, 110.5, 110.9, 111.3, 111.7, 112.2, 112.6, 113.1, 113.5, 114.0, 114.6, 115.1, 115.7, 116.2, 116.8, 117.4, 118.0, 118.7, 119.3, 119.9, 120.6, 121.2, 121.9, 122.5, 123.1, 123.7, 124.3, 124.9, 125.4, 125.9, 126.4, 126.8, 127.2, 127.6, 127.9, 128.2, 128.4, 128.6, 128.7, 128.8, 128.8, 128.8, 128.7, 128.6, 128.4, 128.2, 127.9, 127.5, 127.1, 126.7, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 161.3, 165.7, 170.0, 174.1, 178.1, 181.8, 185.4, 188.8, 191.9, 194.8, 197.4, 199.7, 201.8, 203.6, 205.0, 206.2, 207.0, 207.5, 207.7, 207.6, 207.1, 206.3, 205.2, 203.7, 202.0, 199.9, 197.5, 194.8, 191.9, 188.6, 185.1, 181.4, 177.4, 173.2, 168.8, 164.3, 159.5, 154.6, 149.6, 144.5, 139.3, 134.1, 128.8, 123.5, 118.2, 112.9, 107.6, 102.4, 97.3, 92.3, 87.4, 82.6, 78.0, 73.6, 69.3, 65.3, 61.4, 57.8, 54.4, 51.3, 48.4, 45.7, 43.3, 41.2, 39.4, 37.8, 36.5, 35.4, 34.6, 34.1, 33.8, 33.8, 34.1, 34.5, 35.2, 36.1, 37.2, 38.5, 39.9, 41.5, 43.3, 45.2, 47.2, 49.3, 51.5, 53.8, 56.1, 58.5, 60.8, 63.2, 65.6, 67.9, 70.3, 72.5, 74.7];
15const BE_SPL_PAY = [133, 196, 256, 192, 46, 247, 373, 141, 306, 98, 118, 225, 220, 218, 124, 205, 205, 203, 189, 147, 89, 141, 223, 151, 137, 394, 226, 140, 322, 218, 60, 257, 81, 169, 90, 192, 251, 7, 228, 296, 27, 220, 99, 232, 196, 95, 207, 127, 237, 262, -1398, -20469, 2614, 4631, 1584, 1566, 949, 690, 273, -185, 315, 517, 852, 355, 478, 755, 942, 552, 457, 801, 658, 586, 190, 819, 490, 308, 301, 434, 714, 290, 220, 357, 303, 100, 434, 290, 68, 241, 280, 225, 163, 218, 156, 159, 127, 154, 175, 206, 228, 64, 78, 87, 53, 9, 155, 33, 134, 237, -48, 42, 67, 108, 13, -20, 64, -70, 76, -140, 41, -17, 160, -156, 214, 148, 63, 31, -10, 133, 29, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null];
16const BE_SPL_PAY_MA12 = [220, 215, 228, 222, 197, 203, 211, 211, 224, 207, 198, 194, 202, 203, 192, 193, 207, 203, 188, 188, 170, 174, 182, 176, 169, 184, 192, 187, 197, 198, 187, 196, 196, 198, 187, 190, 200, 168, 168, 181, 156, 156, 160, 158, 167, 161, 171, 165, 164, 186, 50, -1680, -1465, -1097, -974, -862, -800, -750, -744, -770, -764, -743, -555, 1180, 1002, 679, 626, 541, 500, 509, 541, 606, 595, 620, 590, 586, 572, 545, 526, 504, 484, 447, 418, 377, 398, 353, 318, 313, 311, 294, 248, 242, 236, 220, 205, 210, 188, 181, 194, 180, 163, 151, 142, 125, 125, 114, 115, 122, 103, 89, 76, 80, 74, 65, 66, 60, 53, 39, 31, 10, 27, 10, 23, 26, 30, 34, 28, 45, 41, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null];
17const BE_SPL_PAY_MA6 = [203, 214, 231, 212, 182, 178, 218, 209, 218, 202, 214, 210, 185, 198, 167, 185, 200, 196, 191, 179, 173, 162, 165, 157, 148, 189, 212, 212, 228, 240, 227, 204, 180, 184, 146, 142, 173, 132, 156, 177, 167, 172, 146, 184, 178, 145, 175, 159, 

17182, 187, -78, -3506, -3104, -2354, -2129, -1912, -1521, 2006, 1616, 813, 601, 426, 410, 354, 389, 545, 650, 656, 590, 664, 694, 666, 541, 585, 591, 508, 449, 424, 511, 423, 378, 386, 386, 331, 284, 284, 259, 239, 236, 256, 211, 199, 214, 200, 175, 163, 165, 163, 175, 159, 151, 140, 119, 86, 74, 69, 78, 104, 87, 92, 78, 90, 70, 27, 46, 27, 28, -13, -8, -8, 8, -6, 17, 65, 69, 77, 48, 96, 66, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null];