1<!DOCTYPE html> 2<html lang="en"> 3<head> 4 <meta charset="UTF-8"> 5 <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"> 6 <meta name="description" content="Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau - Vice President for Macroeconomic Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Research in labor economics, unemployment, and monetary policy."> 7 <meta name="author" content="Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau"> 8 9 <!-- Open Graph / Social Media --> 10 <meta property="og:type" content="website"> 11 <meta property="og:title" content="Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau - Economist"> 12 <meta property="og:description" content="Vice President for Macroeconomic Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco"> 13 14 <title>Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau - Economist</title> 15 16 <link rel="stylesheet" href="styles.css"> 17 18 <!-- Google Analytics 4 -->
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28 29</head> 30<body> 31 <header> 32 <div class="container"> 33 <a href="index.html" class="site-title">Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau</a> 34 <nav> 35 <ul class="nav-links"> 36 <li><a href="index.html" class="active">Home</a></li> 37 <li><a href="research.html">Research</a></li> 38 <li class="dropdown"> 39 <a href="insights.html">Insights ▼</a> 40 <ul class="dropdown-menu"> 41 <li><a href="insights.html#notes">Economic Notes</a></li> 42 <li><a href="insights.html#videos">Videos</a></li> 43 <li><a href="insights.html#letters">Economic Letters</a></li> 44 </ul> 45 </li> 46 <li><a href="data.html">Data</a></li> 47 <li class="dropdown"> 48 <a href="#">Teaching â¼</a> 49 <ul class="dropdown-menu"> 50 <li><a href="teaching-textbook.html">Textbook</a></li> 51 <li><a href="teaching-macro-labor.html">Macro-Labor at Central Banks</a></li> 52 <li><a href="teaching-ras.html">Research Associates</a></li> 53 </ul> 54 </li> 55 </ul> 56 </nav> 57 </div> 58 </header> 59 60 <section class="hero hero-split"> 61 <div class="container"> 62 <div class="hero-grid"> 63 <div class="hero-left"> 64 <img src="assets/images/profile-photo.jpg" alt="Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau" class="profile-photo"> 65 <div class="hero-info"> 66 <h1>Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau</h1> 67 <p class="hero-title">Vice President for Macroeconomic Research</p> 68 <p class="hero-affiliation">Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco</p> 69 </div> 70 </div> 71 <div class="hero-right"> 72 <p>I lead the macroeconomic research group at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, where I advise the Bank President on monetary policy for FOMC meetings. My research focuses on labor market dynamics using search and matching models, with publications in leading journals.</p> 73 74 <button class="bio-toggle" onclick="toggleBio(this)">Read More</button> 75 76 <div id="hero-bio-full" class="hero-bio-expanded" style="display: none;"> 77 <p>I serve on the policy advisory group for the SF Fed President, where I co-coordinate research briefings and consult on monetary policy strategies for FOMC meetings. I also manage the SF Fed Data Explorer, a public interactive data application, and organize the annual Micro-Macro Labor Economics Conference.</p> 78 79 <p>My research uses search and matching models to examine fluctuations in unemployment, job vacancies, and wages, incorporating product and credit market frictions. I have published in the <em>American Economic Review</em>, the <em>Journal of Monetary Economics</em>, the <em>Journal of Economic Theory</em>, and the <em>Journal of Political Economy: Macroeconomics</em>, among others, and co-authored a graduate textbook with MIT Press. I have served as Associate Editor of the <em>European Economic Review</em> and was a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford.</p> 80 81 <p>Prior to joining the Federal Reserve in 2014, I was on the faculty at Carnegie Mellon University's Tepper School of Business. I hold a PhD in economics from the University of Quebec at Montreal and Sciences Po Paris, and an M.A. from the Graduate Institute in Geneva.</p> 82 </div> 83 84 <div class="research-interests-compact"> 85 <h3>Research Interests</h3> 86 <p>Macroeconomic labor markets, search and matching models, unemployment dynamics, job vacancies, wage determination, business cycle fluctuations, product market frictions, credit market frictions, monetary policy implications</p> 87 </div> 88 </div> 89 </div> 90 </div> 91 </section> 92 93 <main> 94 95 <section class="recent-work"> 96 <div class="container"> 97 <h2 class="recent-work-heading">Recent Work</h2> 98 <div class="recent-work-grid"> 99 100 <a href="insights.html#econ-note-2026-06" class="recent-work-card"> 101 <div class="recent-work-thumb"> 102 <img src="assets/charts/econ-note-2026-06-counterfactual.png" alt="Line chart of the labor force participation rate, 1990 to 202
1026, comparing the actual rate falling from about 67% to 62% with a counterfactual that holds the year-2000 age mix fixed and stays near 67%"> 103 </div> 104 <div class="recent-work-text"> 105 <span class="recent-work-label">Economic Note 2026-06</span> 106 <h3>What the Overall Participation Rate Hides</h3> 107 <p>The participation rate has fallen about 5 points since 2000, but an aggregate rate blends behavior with the age make-up of the population. Holding the year-2000 age mix fixed, participation barely moves: aging accounts for about 4.7 of the 5 point decline.</p> 108 </div> 109 </a> 110 111 <a href="research.html#do-vibes-predict-recessions" class="recent-work-card"> 112 <div class="recent-work-thumb recent-work-journal"> 113 <span class="journal-badge">FRBSF Working Paper 2026-14</span> 114 <span class="journal-year">2026</span> 115 </div> 116 <div class="recent-work-text"> 117 <span class="recent-work-label">New Working Paper</span> 118 <h3>Do Vibes Predict Recessions?</h3> 119 <p>Soft data on beliefs, sentiment, and narratives predict recessions more responsively than hard data, catching more downturns at the cost of more false alarms; combining the two improves forecasts.</p> 120 </div> 121 </a> 122 123 </div> 124 </div> 125 </section> 126 127 <section class="featured-video-banner"> 128 <div class="container"> 129 <div class="featured-video-inner"> 130 <div class="featured-video-media" id="featured-video"> 131 <video src="assets/videos/breakeven_payrolls_animated_mobile.mp4" poster="assets/videos/breakeven_payrolls_poster.png" muted loop playsinline preload="metadata" aria-label="Animated chart: How much hiring is enough? Monthly payroll growth from mid-2023 to July 2026 shown as bars, with the short-run breakeven pace falling from about 193,000 a month to 11,000 as labor force growth slowed, and the 12-month hiring average at 26,000 running just above that much lower bar."></video> 132 </div> 133 <div class="featured-video-text"> 134 <p class="label">Labor Market Insights</p> 135 <h2>How Much Hiring Is Enough?</h2> 136 <p>Payrolls fell in July 2026, yet unemployment eased to 4.1%. The bar for “enough” job growth is not fixed: as labor force growth slowed, the hiring needed just to hold unemployment steady dropped from about 193,000 a month to 11,000.</p> 137 <a href="insights.html#videos" class="cta-link">View all videos →</a> 138 </div> 139 </div> 140 </div> 141 </section> 142 143 <section class="quick-links section-gray"> 144 <div class="container"> 145 <div class="links-grid"> 146 <a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/data-and-indicators/sf-fed-data-explorer/app/" target="_blank" class="link-card"> 147 <h3>SF Data Explorer</h3> 148 </a> 149 <a href="assets/documents/CV_PetroskyNadeau.pdf" target="_blank" class="link-card"> 150 <h3>CV</h3> 151 </a> 152 <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NTFdQh8AAAAJ&hl=en" target="_blank" class="link-card"> 153 <h3>Google Scholar</h3> 154 </a> 155 </div> 156 </div> 157 </section> 158 </main> 159 160 <footer> 161 <div class="container"> 162 <div class="footer-content"> 163 <div class="footer-section"> 164 <h3>Contact</h3> 165 <p>Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco</p> 166 <p>Economic Research Department</p> 167 <p>Email: <a href="mailto:[email protected]">[email protected]</a></p> 168 </div> 169 <div class="footer-section"> 170 <h3>Links</h3> 171 <ul class="footer-links"> 172 <li><a href="index.html">Home</a></li> 173 <li><a href="research.html">Research</a></li> 174 <li><a href="insights.html">Insights</a></li> 175 <li><a href="data.html">Data</a></li> 176 <li><a href="assets/documents/CV_PetroskyNadeau.pdf" target="_blank">CV (PDF)</a></li> 177 <li><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NTFdQh8AAAAJ&hl=en" target="_blank">Google Scholar</a> / <a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2216-110X" target="_blank">ORCID</a></li> 178 <li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-petrosky-nadeau-a0331333" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a></li> 179 </ul> 180 </div> 181 </div> 182 <div class="disclaimer"> 183 <p>The views expressed on this website do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System.</p> 184 <p style="margin-top: 0.5rem; font-size: 0.875rem;">This site uses Google Analytics to understand visitor behavior and improve c
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