1import{S as _a,i as Ia,s as Ea,k as a,q as n,a as c,l as s,m as r,r as o,h as i,c as u,n as d,b as h,G as t,H as lo}from"../chunks/index.f5836231.js";import{b as ho}from"../chunks/paths.e04c2323.js";function xa(ka){let A,Ft,$e,N,Vt,et,g,Kt,G,Qt,Xt,Ce,Yt,Zt,Le,$t,ei,tt,R,ti,it,D,Oe,ii,nt,H,ni,J,oi,ai,ot,m,si,F,ri,li,V,hi,ci,q,ui,Ue,di,fi,mi,K,pi,yi,Be,wi,at,Q,gi,st,X,vi,rt,f,Ne,bi,ki,Ge,_i,Ii,Re,Ei,xi,De,Ti,Ai,Je,Hi,qi,L,Wi,Y,Pi,ji,zi,Fe,Si,lt,Z,Mi,ht,$,Ci,ct,W,Li,Ve,Oi,Ui,ut,ee,Bi,dt,P,Ni,te,Gi,Ri,ft,ie,Di,mt,ne,Ji,pt,oe,Fi,yt,_,Vi,ae,Ki,Qi,se,Xi,Yi,wt,re,Zi,gt,j,$i,le,en,tn,vt,he,nn,bt,p,on,ce,an,sn,ue,rn,ln,Ke,hn,cn,de,un,dn,kt,fe,fn,_t,me,mn,It,I,pn,pe,yn,wn,ye,gn,vn,Et,O,bn,xt,we,kn,Tt,z,_n,Qe,In,En,At,T,Xe,xn,Tn,Ye,An,Ht,ge,Hn,qt,ve,qn,Wt,y,Wn,be,Pn,jn,ke,zn,Sn,_e,Mn,Cn,Ze,Ln,On,Pt,Ie,Un,jt,Ee,Bn,zt,xe,Nn,St,Te,Gn,Mt,v,Ae,He,Rn,Dn,Jn,U,Fn,qe,Vn,Kn,Qn,b,Xn,We,Yn,Zn,Pe,$n,eo,je,to,io,no,B,oo,ze,ao,so;return{c(){A=a("h1"),Ft=n("Building utopia"),$e=c(),N=a("h2"),Vt=n("What is my goal? What is humanityâs goal?"),et=c(),g=a("p"),Kt=n(`Iâve been spending a lot of time reading and thinking about extending ethics 2 â specifically, the possible answers to the question, âWhat should I do?â â 3 from a personal level to the level of groups of individuals, up to the level 4 of the entirety of humankind and beyond. My thinking on this subject is 5 largely based on `),G=a("a"),Qt=n("my idea of desire satisfaction as a reasonable basis for moral thinking"),Xt=n(`, as well as the sort of thinking that underlies the traditional economic 6 analysis of well-being, which is strongly rooted in utilitarianism. My 7 interest in this stems both from a personal fascination, almost an
8 obsession, with thinking carefully about what I `),Ce=a("em"),Yt=n("should"),Zt=n(` spend my 9 time and resources doing (How is it that everyone is not constantly asking 10 this question?), and from my professional stake in understanding how people 11 go about translating their preferences into action and how these individual 12 preferences and actions interact on a larger scale to produce the 13 sophisticated social mechanics of communities, nations, and international 14 bodies: I am about to be submerged full time in rigorous study whose 15 theoretical underpinnings rely on specific, technical assumptions about how 16 all this works, so it only makes sense to carefully consider how appropriate 17 those assumptions are and how we can reasonably translate the positive 18 declarations of empirical economic analysis (and scientific investigation 19 more generally) into normative statements about `),Le=a("em"),$t=n("what "),ei=n(`we should 20 collectively be using our finite resources for. Specifically, I want to 21 carefully consider what the priorities of human society should be and how I 22 can use my own resources and aptitudes to contribute to those priorities.`),tt=c(),R=a("h3"),ti=n("Aggregating preferences"),it=c(),D=a("p"),Oe=a("em"),ii=n(`(Note: unless you like mathematizing everything like I do, you might 23 want to just skim this section and get on to the content below.)`),nt=c(),H=a("p"),ni=n(`As I have written before, a good starting point for this sort of thinking is 24 to ask, âWhat is it that I want?â and then orient oneâs actions in such as a 25 way as to achieve the state of being that best satisfies those wants. This 26 is very similar to the general approach used in microeconomic theory, where 27 individuals are assumed to have a set of `),J=a("a"),oi=n("well-behaved preferences"),ai=n(` that can be assumed to be modeled by a âutility functionâ that assigns a state 28 of well-being to every possible collection of resources and circumstances a person 29 may have. A basket of goods is associated with a higher value of a given personâs 30 utility function if and only if that personâs well-being is higher with that 31 basket of goods. This mathematical formalization of preferences is used to quantitatively 32 describe the ways in which people interact and form markets to exchange goods 33 so as to maximize their individual utilities.`),ot=c(),m=a("p"),si=n(`It is one thing to analyze the ways, in line with my proposed framework, 34 that people go about satisfying their desires, or the ways, according to the 35 standard microeconomic model, that the simultaneous efforts of individuals 36 to maximize their utilities give rise to a system of prices and exchange of 37 goods, but it is quite another thing to take these ideas and use them to say 38 something about how the states of well-being of the people comprising a 39 social group are related to the collective well-being of the society that 40 they constitute. One idea I have proposed as a way of thinking about this is 41 to take the natural extension of the desire satisfaction model and assert 42 that `),F=a("a"),ri=n(`social groups should act in such a way as to achieve the âdesiresâ 43 expressed by the group âconsciousnessâ`),li=n(` 44 (i.e. the ideas expressed via conversation within the group) â that is, to assume 45 that the collective well-being of a social group is increased by pursuing actions 46 that place the group more in line with the desires expressed by the combined 47 voices of the group, with the converse also being true. The difficulty is, of 48 course, figuring out how exactly the disparate expressed opinions of a group 49 combine to form a collective voice, but this is of course also a difficulty on 50 the personal level â how do the various voices within oneâs own head combine 51 to give an experience of conscious identity? This same difficulty has been noted 52 by economic theorists in their preference- and utility-based model. On the individual 53 level, the standard economic model does not allow for a person holding contradictory 54 or otherwise inconsistent preferences, simultaneous sets of distinct preferences,
55 or preferences that change significantly over time (although 56 `),V=a("a"),hi=n("I have tried to address some of those problems"),ci=n(` 57 in my own thinking). On the collective level, economic thinkers have gone so 58 far as to prove that, under certain assumptions, 59 `),q=a("a"),ui=n(`it is mathematically 60 `),Ue=a("em"),di=n("impossible"),fi=n(` to construct a system for transforming individual preferences 61 into a consistent set of preferences for the group as a whole`),mi=n(` 62 (roughly, there is no perfect ranked-choice voting system). The situation is 63 a bit less bleak if the assumptions involved are relaxed a bit (and the 64 literature surrounding this problem is 65 `),K=a("a"),pi=n("really quite interesting"),yi=n(`), but the fact remains that the way in which individual preferences/states 66 of well-being should be agglomerated is far from obvious. Even so, I think 67 it is still in many cases reasonable to make some basic assertions about 68 what social groups want and what they should do to move toward those wants. 69 `),Be=a("strong"),wi=n(`The rest of this essay is an exploration of what it is possible to say 70 about the collective desires of all of humanity and what I think we 71 ought to do to maximize our chances of fulfilling those desires.`),at=c(),Q=a("h3"),gi=n("What humanity wants"),st=c(),X=a("p"),vi=n(`As detailed above, it is hard to say in a rigorous and exact fashion what 72 human society wants on most issues, but I can propose some basic wants based 73 on desires that are commonly held by most people and/or frequently show up 74 in public discourse:`),rt=c(),f=a("ul"),Ne=a("li"),bi=n("Humanity wants to survive."),ki=c(),Ge=a("li"),_i=n(`Humanity wants to provide pleasurable and meaningful lives to its 75 constituent persons.`),Ii=c(),Re=a("li"),Ei=n(`Humanity wants to increase in knowledge and understanding about how the 76 physical world works and apply that knowledge to technological 77 development.`),xi=c(),De=a("li"),Ti=n(`Humanity wants to be wealthier (in the sense of having the capability to 78 produce more goods and services; here I refer to wealth as essentially 79 identical to power â money is strictly speaking only a conceptual 80 representation of power and may in fact be mostly unnecessary in a 81 sufficiently advanced society).`),Ai=c(),Je=a("li"),Hi=n(`Humanity wants to produce monuments to its culture (literal monuments, 82 works of art, bodies of literature, music, etc.).`),qi=c(),L=a("li"),Wi=n(`Humanity wants to provide certain rights to, and enforce some sort of 83 social justice among, its constituent persons. (This one is a somewhat 84 more recent desire, manifest with the rise of `),Y=a("a"),Pi=n("liberal political thinking"),ji=n(` since the Enlightenment a few centuries back. This way of thinking is of 85 course not universal, but does hold great sway in many parts of the modern 86 world.)`),zi=c(),Fe=a("li"),Si=n(`Humanity wants to be in line with a higher power. (Although this 87 particular desire takes different forms compared to times past, it is 88 still a significant motive in most people and thus in humankind 89 collectively.)`),lt=c(),Z=a("p"),Mi=n(`This list is not intended to be exhaustive, but I think it provides a 90 reasonable foundation to explain most of the human dynamics we see in global 91 events and to provide a starting point for answering the question, âWhat 92 should we do?â`),ht=c(),$=a("h2"),Ci=n("What is our potential?"),ct=c(),W=a("p"),Li=n("I want to paint a mental image of what "),Ve=a("em"),Oi=n("could"),Ui=n(` be possible, what human 93 society might roughly look like if we managed to robustly satisfy the collective 94 desires Iâve listed above. This is by no means a novel exercise: people have 95 been imagining up utopias probably since stories have been told. However, I think 96 this is a worthwhile train of thought, as it can help us determine what we should 97 be working toward and start to consider what we ought to be doing right now to 98 get ourselves there.`),ut=c(),ee=a("p"),Bi=n(`First, to satisfy the desire to survive, we need to still be around. This 99 seems quite obvious but may be easier said than done. Iâll consider some 100 specific ways that things could go wrong here in the next section.`),dt=c(),P=
100a("p"),Ni=n(`Given that humankind is still extant in our hypothetical future, the things 101 necessary to satisfy the other collective desires Iâve proposed are for the 102 most part intertwined and complementary, although some are a bit at odds 103 with each other. If we manage to continue improving production-related 104 technology to the point where we can efficiently and sustainably make use of 105 raw materials and available labor, it is possible that humanity may, in the 106 future, `),te=a("a"),Gi=n("exist in a post-scarcity economy"),Ri=n(`. Individuals living in such a situation would be principally concerned not 107 with making a living, but with pursuing goals, activities, and relationships 108 that give them pleasure, and â importantly â provide them with a sense of 109 meaning. It is likely that most essential production would be automated, 110 with robotic systems proving much more effective and cost-efficient than 111 humans at performing most (if not all) tasks; although people would likely 112 still pursue some sort of work as a type of meaning-making, such work would 113 not be strictly necessary.`),ft=c(),ie=a("p"),Di=n(`I am of the persuasion that automation technology can potentially progress 114 to the point where computers can cognitively exceed humans substantially in 115 every respect â any argument to the contrary seems to hinge on the 116 assumption that there is something special about the human mind that can not 117 be replicated mechanistically, but I see no reason why this would be the 118 case: the brain is a fantastically complicated physical system but still a
119 physical system â because of this, machines may not only be the means of 120 production for society but also the principal scientists, engineers, and 121 decision makers. This does not mean that the course of society would run 122 contrary to the interests of human kind, since, with sufficient care, it is 123 reasonable to believe that the thinking machines could be in the first place 124 designed to act in the interest of the human race, hopefully even better 125 than if humans were still directly in charge. People would likely also still 126 be heavily involved in scholarly, constructive, and creative tasks â just 127 because someone or something else can do something better than you doesnât 128 mean that you doing that thing isnât still worthwhile or at the very least 129 entertaining. Humans would, every day, produce incredible creative works far 130 exceeding anything we see today.`),mt=c(),ne=a("p"),Ji=n(`Medical technology would have reached the point where disease had been 131 essentially eradicated, and humans could prolong their lives as long as 132 desired. We would be experts at maintaining excellent mental health, 133 ensuring that people would not be detoured from well-being by unwanted and 134 unavoidable maladies of the mind. Some of these advances would, perhaps, be 135 facilitated by genetic engineering of human biology itself, although before 136 tampering with our own makeup we would certainly want to consider carefully 137 whether the changes we made were in fact in line with our long-term desires.`),pt=c(),oe=a("p"),Fi=n(`With practically unlimited resources, overpopulation would not be too much 138 of a concern, so the human race could potentially keep growing. Individuals 139 and couples could choose to have and raise children, although their skill at 140 child-rearing and the resources available to support them in doing so would 141 be much greater than is typical today. Again, because the principal task of 142 people would be meaning-making, and close relationships are an important 143 source of meaning, romantic, platonic, and family relationships would still 144 play a key part in peopleâs lives.`),yt=c(),_=a("p"),Vi=n(`Various human rights would be guaranteed to all people (probably something 145 like the `),ae=a("a"),Ki=n("UNâs Universal Declaration of Human Rights"),Qi=n(`, but adapted to the specific concerns of the time). In general, 146 institutions would be set up to provide equality of opportunity in a 147 `),se=a("a"),Xi=n("Rawlsian"),Yi=n(` sense. It is 148 likely that many people would still follow religious traditions, although the 149 beliefs associated with those religions would evolve over time to be compatible 150 with a highly knowledgeable, liberal, and technologically advanced society.`),wt=c(),re=a("h2"),Zi=n("What could go wrong?"),gt=c(),j=a("p"),$i=n(`Talking about possible utopian states does little good without a plan to get 151 there and an understanding of the possible road blocks along the way. After 152 all, the numerous attempts made to establish the perfect society have to 153 this point dissolved or, often, ended in disaster â Sir Thomas More was 154 unintentionally prescient in coining the name â`),le=a("a"),en=n("Utopia"),tn=n(`â after the Greek for âno place.â I can identity a few ways in which we may 155 be derailed before reaching the sort of state I described in the previous 156 section. We should take these threats seriously and make efforts now to 157 avoid them.`),vt=c(),he=a("h3"),nn=n("Extinction"),bt=c(),p=a("p"),on=n(`Humanity faces several existential threats that could lead to its extinction 158 or at least to its irreversible dwindling. Some thinkers have suggested that `),ce=a("a"),an=n("we are currently facing a critical period"),sn=n(` 159 during with such existential threats are especially pressing, making the task 160 of addressing these issues right now very important. Natural disasters like meteor 161 strikes, volcanoes, or even natural pandemics are unlikely to make us go extinct 162 (though they can obviously cause significant suffering). Somewhat perversely, 163 the greatest threats we face come from ourselves. Nuclear war, although still 164 unlikely to totally annihilate us, could easily come very close and certainly 165 cause unprecedented destruction; despite a decline in the attention paid to it 166 since the Cold War, 167 `),ue=a("a"),rn=n(`this threat is perhaps more pressing than ever before and deserves our 168 attention`),ln=n(`. Man-made pathogens could also prove much more dangerous than naturally 169 occurring ones and could lead to our extinction. Climate change is set to 170 lead to very costly problems down the road; again, this probably wonât drive 171 us extinct, but it `),Ke=a("em"),hn=n("might"),cn=n(`, and it deserves attention in any case. 172 One threat that many people may be unaware of, but nonetheless is making 173 some 174 `),de=a("a"),un=n("very smart people quite concerned"),dn=n(`, is the potential for superintelligent artificial intelligences to go 175 awry, start acting against our best interests, and destroy or otherwise 176 incapacitate us. This admittedly sounds like science fiction, but given that 177 it is an unprecedented threat and that our future society will very likely 178 rely heavily on intelligent machines, it seems that significant caution is 179 merited.`),kt=c(),fe=a("p"),fn=n(`I should note that none of the above-listed threats are guaranteed to 180 materialize. However, if we think probabilistically and consider how bad it 181 would be if they did happen, we realize that they deserve way more attention 182 than theyâre currently getting.`),_t=c(),me=a("h3"),mn=n("Stagnation"),It=c(),I=a("p"),pn=n(`Even if we donât go extinct, it is still possible that we might fail to 183 continue progressing technologically a point where we can achieve the future 184 I have imagined. There are lots of reasons why this could happen â for 185 example, any of the extinction threats above could also just set humanity 186 back to a point where further technological progress is impossible, our 187 institutions could decay to a point where they are not efficient enough to 188 produce new innovations but still somehow stable enough to persist, or we 189 may have just already picked all the low-hanging scientific fruit. It 190 already seems to be the case that `),pe=a("a"),yn=n("technological progress has been slowing down in the past few decades"),wn=n(`, and 191 `),ye=a("a"),gn=n("future growth may be much more difficult than
191it has been"),vn=n(` since the start of the industrial revolution. We should look carefully into 192 the causes of possible stagnation and reform our institutions to address them. 193 Perhaps the best place to start is by reforming the educational and academic 194 institutions to actually teach effectively and to incentivize groundbreaking 195 research instead of persisting in centuries-old hierarchical structures and processes 196 that require endless hoop-jumping.`),Et=c(),O=a("h3"),bn=n("Derailment"),xt=c(),we=a("p"),kn=n(`A worrisome trend I have seen over the past couple of decades, fomented 197 especially by the internet, is the derailment of human psychology in favor 198 of the endless consumption of goods whose impact on our well-being is not 199 obviously positive. I see lots of people wondering whether services like 200 social media are actually net positives â most of these worries focus on the 201 impact of those services on individual mental health and productivity 202 (certainly worth paying attention to!), but those effects are only some of 203 the ways in which technology may affect our long-term potential to create a 204 healthier and more robust society. We have already seen how the 205 resource-extraction technologies of the past century have blighted the 206 planet; shouldnât we have learned our lesson to be more careful with 207 deploying transformative technologies when our collective future is on the 208 line?`),Tt=c(),z=a("p"),_n=n(`I donât want to be misunderstood: I am strongly in favor of technological 209 progress, but only insofar as it actually constitutes `),Qe=a("em"),In=n("progress"),En=n(` â that 210 is, as far as it promotes our collective well-being and moves us closer to the 211 goals I have outlined above. The internet and other modern innovations do make 212 possible many services I find to be incredibly useful (shout out to my friend 213 Wikipedia), but at the same time it is unclear to me how services that allow 214 us to wile away our time reading hollow jokes and to constantly feel inferior 215 to the air-brushed celebrities and âinfluencersâ that have suddenly come to be 216 neighbors with us in our (virtual) communities are a step in the right direction. 217 The most successful online tech companies use clever and sophisticated âmachine 218 learningâ algorithms to get a detailed idea of usersâ interests and preferences 219 so they can more effectively tug on our emotions and market us more goods of 220 questionable worth. Surely we can find better uses for these innovations?`),At=c(),T=a("blockquote"),Xe=a("p"),xn=n("We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters."),Tn=c(),Ye=a("cite"),An=n("Peter Thiel"),Ht=c(),ge=a("h3"),Hn=n("Subjugation"),qt=c(),ve=a("p"),qn=n(`Even if we manage to dodge all of the obstacles mentioned so far, we may 221 still not be completely in the clear. Selfish interests may still deter us 222 from our goal. After all, the idealistic visions of many of the past 223 projects meant to better the lot of mankind were turned sour in part because 224 of the excessive concentration of power and subsequent abuse of that power.`),Wt=c(),y=a("p"),Wn=n(`Wealth inequality has received a lot of attention in the U.S. in recent 225 years, and, while the issue is more complicated than is commonly portrayed 226 in mainstream treatments of the subject, it is still quite clear that 227 something has changed about the modern economic system that leads to some 228 individuals possessing outrageous monetary power. Although there may be some 229 advantages to some individuals having such power â for example, people like 230 Bill and Melinda Gates perform charitable work at a larger scale and more 231 efficiently than any government group I am aware of â the current situation 232 is still concerning and can only be expected to intensify as globalization 233 continues and improved technology increasingly rewards holders of capital 234 more than laborers. The former factor â globalization â does seem to be 235 facing friction from things like Brexit and Trump-style isolationism, but 236 the `),be=a("a"),Pn=n("actions of nations like China"),jn=n(` 237 and the increasing interconnectedness of everything facilitated by the internet 238 suggest that the march of global economic entanglement will continue. The latter 239 factor â automation of labor â seems slated to be an even greater contributor 240 to wealth inequality, and one that is not likely to slack off anytime soon. As 241 Iâve already mentioned, humans will increasingly find themselves outmoded by 242 machines in their occupations, and 243 `),ke=a("a"),zn=n("whoever owns the machines will find themselves rolling in the dough"),Sn=n(`. It is a mistake to think that anyoneâs job is immune to automation: 244 `),_e=a("a"),Mn=n("even highly-educated workers could find themselves replaced"),Cn=n(` 245 by the next generation of pseudo-intelligent machines. Absent 246 `),Ze=a("em"),Ln=n("carefully"),On=n(`-designed public policy to fairly distribute the new
247 machine-generated wealth, Iâm worried that we may find ourselves facing a 248 dystopian scene of subjugation by the capital-holding elite. On the other 249 hand, if we can avoid that scenario, the potentially gains to the whole of 250 humanity are immense.`),Pt=c(),Ie=a("h2"),Un=n("Conclusion"),jt=c(),Ee=a("p"),Bn=n(`Humanityâs future lies along a path promising both great rewards and 251 formidable obstacles. If we can successfully navigate the obstacles in our 252 way, we can arrive at a future characterized by pleasant, meaningful, and 253 healthy lives; guaranteed rights and opportunities; great wealth; great 254 technical and cultural achievements; and, overall, widespread moral 255 achievement, whatever that may mean for the humans of the time.`),zt=c(),xe=a("p"),Nn=n("â"),St=c(),Te=a("p"),Gn=n(`If you enjoyed this essay and want to think more carefully about these 256 issues and be involved in making a better future, here are some resources 257 Iâve found helpful:`),Mt=c(),v=a("ul"),Ae=a("li"),He=a("a"),Rn=n("80,000 hours"),Dn=n(` for well-thought-out advice 258 about how to have an impactful career. Many of their focus areas involve 259 issues touched upon here.`),Jn=c(),U=a("li"),Fn=n("Works of fiction like Iain Banksâ "),qe=a("a"),Vn=n("Culture series"),Kn=n(" to help you get excited about what our collective future could look like."),Qn=c(),b=a("li"),Xn=n(`Podcasts to help you be better-informed about social and economic issues 260 that contribute to or detract from our collective flourishing â here are 261 some of my favorites: `),We=a("a"),Yn=n("Conversations with Tyler"),Zn=n(", "),Pe=a("a"),$n=n("EconTalk"),eo=n(`, the 262 `),je=a("a"),to=n("80,000 hours podcast"),io=n("."),no=c(),B=a("li"),oo=n(`Technical books to help structure your thinking about our aggregate 263 well-being â hereâs one Iâve been reading recently (free as of July 264 2020): `),ze=a("a"),ao=n("Economics as Applied Ethics"),so=n("."),this.h()},l(e){A=s(e,"H1",{});var l=r(A);Ft=o(l,"Building utopia"),l.forEach(i),$e=u(e),N=s(e,"H2",{});var co=r(N);Vt=o(co,"What is my goal? What is humanityâs goal?"),co.forEach(i),et=u(e),g=s(e,"P",{});var S=r(g);Kt=o(S,`Iâve been spending a lot of time reading and thinking about extending ethics 265 â specifically, the possible answers to the question, âWhat should I do?â â 266 from a personal level to the level of groups of individuals, up to the level 267 of the entirety of humankind and beyond. My thinking on this subject is 268 largely based on `),G=s(S,"A",{href:!0});var uo=r(G);Qt=o(uo,"my idea of desire satisfaction as a reasonable basis for moral thinking"),uo.forEach(i),Xt=o(S,`, as well as the sort of thinking that underlies the traditional economic 269 analysis of well-being, which is strongly rooted in utilitarianism. My 270 interest in this stems both from a personal fascination, almost an 271 obsession, with thinking carefully about what I `),Ce=s(S,"EM",{});var fo=r(Ce);Yt=o(fo,"should"),fo.forEach(i),Zt=o(S,` spend my 272 time and resources doing (How is it that everyone is not constantly asking 273 this question?), and from my professional stake in understanding how people 274 go about translating their preferences into action and how these individual 275 preferences and actions interact on a larger scale to produce the 276 sophisticated social mechanics of communities, nations, and international 277 bodies: I am about to be submerged full time in rigorous study whose 278 theoretical underpinnings rely on specific, technical assumptions about how 279 all this works, so it only makes sense to carefully consider how appropriate 280 those assumptions are and how we can reasonably translate the positive 281 declarations of empirical economic analysis (and scientific investigation 282 more generally) into normative statements about `),Le=s(S,"EM",{});var mo=r(Le);$t=o(mo,"what "),mo.forEach(i),ei=o(S,`we should 283 collectively be using our finite resources for. Specifically, I want to 284 carefully consider what the priorities of human society should be and how I 285 can use my own resources and aptitudes to contribute to those priorities.`),S.forEac
285h(i),tt=u(e),R=s(e,"H3",{});var po=r(R);ti=o(po,"Aggregating preferences"),po.forEach(i),it=u(e),D=s(e,"P",{});var yo=r(D);Oe=s(yo,"EM",{});var wo=r(Oe);ii=o(wo,`(Note: unless you like mathematizing everything like I do, you might 286 want to just skim this section and get on to the content below.)`),wo.forEach(i),yo.forEach(i),nt=u(e),H=s(e,"P",{});var Ct=r(H);ni=o(Ct,`As I have written before, a good starting point for this sort of thinking is 287 to ask, âWhat is it that I want?â and then orient oneâs actions in such as a 288 way as to achieve the state of being that best satisfies those wants. This 289 is very similar to the general approach used in microeconomic theory, where 290 individuals are assumed to have a set of `),J=s(Ct,"A",{href:!0});var go=r(J);oi=o(go,"well-behaved preferences"),go.forEach(i),ai=o(Ct,` that can be assumed to be modeled by a âutility functionâ that assigns a state 291 of well-being to every possible collection of resources and circumstances a person 292 may have. A basket of goods is associated with a higher value of a given personâs 293 utility function if and only if that personâs well-being is higher with that 294 basket of goods. This mathematical formalization of preferences is used to quantitatively 295 describe the ways in which people interact and form markets to exchange goods 296 so as to maximize their individual utilities.`),Ct.forEach(i),ot=u(e),m=s(e,"P",{});var k=r(m);si=o(k,`It is one thing to analyze the ways, in line with my proposed framework, 297 that people go about satisfying their desires, or the ways, according to the 298 standard microeconomic model, that the simultaneous efforts of individuals 299 to maximize their utilities give rise to a system of prices and exchange of 300 goods, but it is quite another thing to take these ideas and use them to say 301 something about how the states of well-being of the people comprising a 302 social group are related to the collective well-being of the society that 303 they constitute. One idea I have proposed as a way of thinking about this is 304 to take the natural extension of the desire satisfaction model and assert 305 that `),F=s(k,"A",{href:!0});var vo=r(F);ri=o(vo,`social groups should act in such a way as to achieve the âdesiresâ 306 expressed by the group âconsciousnessâ`),vo.forEach(i),li=o(k,` 307 (i.e. the ideas expressed via conversation within the group) â that is, to assume 308 that the collective well-being of a social group is increased by pursuing actions 309 that place the group more in line with the desires expressed by the combined 310 voices of the group, with the converse also being true. The difficulty is, of 311 course, figuring out how exactly the disparate expressed opinions of a group 312 combine to form a collective voice, but this is of course also a difficulty on 313 the personal level â how do the various voices within oneâs own head combine 314 to give an experience of conscious identity? This same difficulty has been noted 315 by economic theorists in their preference- and utility-based model. On the individual 316 level, the standard economic model does not allow for a person holding contradictory 317 or otherwise inconsistent preferences, simultaneous sets of distinct preferences, 318 or preferences that change significantly over time (although 319 `),V=s(k,"A",{href:!0});var bo=r(V);hi=o(bo,"I have tried to address some of those problems"),bo.forEach(i),ci=o(k,` 320 in my own thinking). On the collective level, economic thinkers have gone so 321 far as to prove that, under certain assumptions, 322 `),q=s(k,"A",{href:!0});var Lt=r(q);ui=o(Lt,`it is mathematically 323 `),Ue=s(Lt,"EM",{});var ko=r(Ue);di=o(ko,"impossible"),ko.forEach(i),fi=o(Lt,` to construct a system for transforming individual preferences 324 into a consistent set of preferences for the group as a whole`),Lt.forEach(i),mi=o(k,` 325 (roughly, there is no perfect ranked-choice voting system). The situation is 326 a bit less bleak if the assumptions involved are relaxed a bit (and the 327 literature surrounding this problem is 328 `),K=s(k,"A",{href:!0});var _o=r(K);pi=o(_o,"really quite interesting"),_o.forEach(i),yi=o(k,`), but the fact remains that the way in which individual preferences/states 329 of well-being should be agglomerated is far from obvious. Even so, I think 330 it is still in many cases reasonable to make some basic assertions about 331 what social groups want and what they should do to move toward those wants. 332 `),Be=s(k,"STRONG",{});var Io=r(Be);wi=o(Io,`The rest of this essay is an exploration of what it is possible to say 333 about the collective desires of all of humanity and what I think we 334 ought to do to maximize our chances of fulfilling those desires.`),Io.forEac
334h(i),k.forEach(i),at=u(e),Q=s(e,"H3",{});var Eo=r(Q);gi=o(Eo,"What humanity wants"),Eo.forEach(i),st=u(e),X=s(e,"P",{});var xo=r(X);vi=o(xo,`As detailed above, it is hard to say in a rigorous and exact fashion what 335 human society wants on most issues, but I can propose some basic wants based 336 on desires that are commonly held by most people and/or frequently show up 337 in public discourse:`),xo.forEach(i),rt=u(e),f=s(e,"UL",{});var w=r(f);Ne=s(w,"LI",{});var To=r(Ne);bi=o(To,"Humanity wants to survive."),To.forEach(i),ki=u(w),Ge=s(w,"LI",{});var Ao=r(Ge);_i=o(Ao,`Humanity wants to provide pleasurable and meaningful lives to its 338 constituent persons.`),Ao.forEach(i),Ii=u(w),Re=s(w,"LI",{});var Ho=r(Re);Ei=o(Ho,`Humanity wants to increase in knowledge and understanding about how the 339 physical world works and apply that knowledge to technological 340 development.`),Ho.forEach(i),xi=u(w),De=s(w,"LI",{});var qo=r(De);Ti=o(qo,`Humanity wants to be wealthier (in the sense of having the capability to 341 produce more goods and services; here I refer to wealth as essentially 342 identical to power â money is strictly speaking only a conceptual 343 representation of power and may in fact be mostly unnecessary in a 344 sufficiently advanced society).`),qo.forEach(i),Ai=u(w),Je=s(w,"LI",{});var Wo=r(Je);Hi=o(Wo,`Humanity wants to produce monuments to its culture (literal monuments, 345 works of art, bodies of literature, music, etc.).`),Wo.forEach(i),qi=u(w),L=s(w,"LI",{});var Ot=r(L);Wi=o(Ot,`Humanity wants to provide certain rights to, and enforce some sort of 346 social justice among, its constituent persons. (This one is a somewhat 347 more recent desire, manifest with the rise of `),Y=s(Ot,"A",{href:!0});var Po=r(Y);Pi=o(Po,"liberal political thinking"),Po.forEach(i),ji=o(Ot,` since the Enlightenment a few centuries back. This way of thinking is of 348 course not universal, but does hold great sway in many parts of the modern 349 world.)`),Ot.forEach(i),zi=u(w),Fe=s(w,"LI",{});var jo=r(Fe);Si=o(jo,`Humanity wants to be in line with a higher power. (Although this 350 particular desire takes different forms compared to times past, it is 351 still a significant motive in most people and thus in humankind 352 collectively.)`),jo.forEach(i),w.forEach(i),lt=u(e),Z=s(e,"P",{});var zo=r(Z);Mi=o(zo,`This list is not intended to be exhaustive, but I think it provides a 353 reasonable foundation to explain most of the human dynamics we see in global 354 events and to provide a starting point for answering the question, âWhat 355 should we do?â`),zo.forEach(i),ht=u(e),$=s(e,"H2",{});var So=r($);Ci=o(So,"What is our potential?"),So.forEach(i),ct=u(e),W=s(e,"P",{});var Ut=r(W);Li=o(Ut,"I want to paint a mental image of what "),Ve=s(Ut,"EM",{});var Mo=r(Ve);Oi=o(Mo,"could"),Mo.forEach(i),Ui=o(Ut,` be possible, what human 356 society might roughly look like if we managed to robustly satisfy the collective 357 desires Iâve listed above. This is by no means a novel exercise: people have 358 been imagining up utopias probably since stories have been told. However, I think 359 this is a worthwhile train of thought, as it can help us determine what we should 360 be working toward and start to consider what we ought to be doing right now to 361 get ourselves there.`),Ut.forEach(i),ut=u(e),ee=s(e,"P",{});var Co=r(ee);Bi=o(Co,`First, to satisfy the desire to survive, we need to still be around. This 362 seems quite obvious but may be easier said than done. Iâll consider some 363 specific ways that things could go wrong here in the next section.`),Co.forEach(i),dt=u(e),P=s(e,"P",{});var Bt=r(P);Ni=o(Bt,`Given that humankind is still extant in our hypothetical future, the things 364 necessary to satisfy the other collective desires Iâve proposed are for the 365 most part intertwined and complementary, although some are a bit at odds 366 with each other. If we manage to continue improving production-related 367 technology to the point where we can efficiently and sustainably make use of 368 raw materials and available labor, it is possible that humanity may, in the 369 future, `),te=s(Bt,"A",{href:!0});var Lo=r(te);
369Gi=o(Lo,"exist in a post-scarcity economy"),Lo.forEach(i),Ri=o(Bt,`. Individuals living in such a situation would be principally concerned not 370 with making a living, but with pursuing goals, activities, and relationships 371 that give them pleasure, and â importantly â provide them with a sense of 372 meaning. It is likely that most essential production would be automated, 373 with robotic systems proving much more effective and cost-efficient than 374 humans at performing most (if not all) tasks; although people would likely 375 still pursue some sort of work as a type of meaning-making, such work would 376 not be strictly necessary.`),Bt.forEach(i),ft=u(e),ie=s(e,"P",{});var Oo=r(ie);Di=o(Oo,`I am of the persuasion that automation technology can potentially progress 377 to the point where computers can cognitively exceed humans substantially in 378 every respect â any argument to the contrary seems to hinge on the 379 assumption that there is something special about the human mind that can not 380 be replicated mechanistically, but I see no reason why this would be the 381 case: the brain is a fantastically complicated physical system but still a
382 physical system â because of this, machines may not only be the means of 383 production for society but also the principal scientists, engineers, and 384 decision makers. This does not mean that the course of society would run 385 contrary to the interests of human kind, since, with sufficient care, it is 386 reasonable to believe that the thinking machines could be in the first place 387 designed to act in the interest of the human race, hopefully even better 388 than if humans were still directly in charge. People would likely also still 389 be heavily involved in scholarly, constructive, and creative tasks â just 390 because someone or something else can do something better than you doesnât 391 mean that you doing that thing isnât still worthwhile or at the very least 392 entertaining. Humans would, every day, produce incredible creative works far 393 exceeding anything we see today.`),Oo.forEach(i),mt=u(e),ne=s(e,"P",{});var Uo=r(ne);Ji=o(Uo,`Medical technology would have reached the point where disease had been 394 essentially eradicated, and humans could prolong their lives as long as 395 desired. We would be experts at maintaining excellent mental health, 396 ensuring that people would not be detoured from well-being by unwanted and 397 unavoidable maladies of the mind. Some of these advances would, perhaps, be 398 facilitated by genetic engineering of human biology itself, although before 399 tampering with our own makeup we would certainly want to consider carefully 400 whether the changes we made were in fact in line with our long-term desires.`),Uo.forEach(i),pt=u(e),oe=s(e,"P",{});var Bo=r(oe);Fi=o(Bo,`With practically unlimited resources, overpopulation would not be too much 401 of a concern, so the human race could potentially keep growing. Individuals 402 and couples could choose to have and raise children, although their skill at 403 child-rearing and the resources available to support them in doing so would 404 be much greater than is typical today. Again, because the principal task of 405 people would be meaning-making, and close relationships are an important 406 source of meaning, romantic, platonic, and family relationships would still 407 play a key part in peopleâs lives.`),Bo.forEach(i),yt=u(e),_=s(e,"P",{});var Se=r(_);Vi=o(Se,`Various human rights would be guaranteed to all people (probably something 408 like the `),ae=s(Se,"A",{href:!0});var No=r(ae);Ki=o(No,"UNâs Universal Declaration of Human Rights"),No.forEach(i),Qi=o(Se,`, but adapted to the specific concerns of the time). In general, 409 institutions would be set up to provide equality of opportunity in a 410 `),se=s(Se,"A",{href:!0});var Go=r(se);Xi=o(Go,"Rawlsian"),Go.forEach(i),Yi=o(Se,` sense. It is 411 likely that many people would still follow religious traditions, although the 412 beliefs associated with those religions would evolve over time to be compatible 413 with a highly knowledgeable, liberal, and technologically advanced society.`),Se.forEach(i),wt=u(e),re=s(e,"H2",{});var Ro=r(re);Zi=o(Ro,"What could go wrong?"),Ro.forEach(i),gt=u(e),j=s(e,"P",{});var Nt=r(j);$i=o(Nt,`Talking about possible utopian states does little good without a plan to get 414 there and an understanding of the possible road blocks along the way. After 415 all, the numerous attempts made to establish the perfect society have to 416 this point dissolved or, often, ended in disaster â Sir Thomas More was 417 unintentionally prescient in coining the name â`),le=s(Nt,"A",{href:!0});var Do=r(le);en=o(Do,"Utopia"),Do.forEach(i),tn=o(Nt,`â after the Greek for âno place.â I can identity a few ways in which we may 418 be derailed before reaching the sort of state I described in the previous 419 section. We should take these threats seriously and make efforts now to 420 avoid them.`),Nt.forEach(i),vt=u(e),he=s(e,"H3",{});var Jo=r(he);nn=o(Jo,"Extinction"),Jo.forEach(i),bt=u(e),p=s(e,"P",{});var E=r(p);on=o(E,`Humanity faces several existential threats that could lead to its extinction 421 or at least to its irreversible dwindling. Some thinkers have suggested that `),ce=s(E,"A",{href:!0});var Fo=r(ce);
421an=o(Fo,"we are currently facing a critical period"),Fo.forEach(i),sn=o(E,` 422 during with such existential threats are especially pressing, making the task 423 of addressing these issues right now very important. Natural disasters like meteor 424 strikes, volcanoes, or even natural pandemics are unlikely to make us go extinct 425 (though they can obviously cause significant suffering). Somewhat perversely, 426 the greatest threats we face come from ourselves. Nuclear war, although still 427 unlikely to totally annihilate us, could easily come very close and certainly 428 cause unprecedented destruction; despite a decline in the attention paid to it 429 since the Cold War, 430 `),ue=s(E,"A",{href:!0});var Vo=r(ue);rn=o(Vo,`this threat is perhaps more pressing than ever before and deserves our 431 attention`),Vo.forEach(i),ln=o(E,`. Man-made pathogens could also prove much more dangerous than naturally 432 occurring ones and could lead to our extinction. Climate change is set to 433 lead to very costly problems down the road; again, this probably wonât drive 434 us extinct, but it `),Ke=s(E,"EM",{});var Ko=r(Ke);hn=o(Ko,"might"),Ko.forEach(i),cn=o(E,`, and it deserves attention in any case. 435 One threat that many people may be unaware of, but nonetheless is making 436 some 437 `),de=s(E,"A",{href:!0});var Qo=r(de);un=o(Qo,"very smart people quite concerned"),Qo.forEach(i),dn=o(E,`, is the potential for superintelligent artificial intelligences to go 438 awry, start acting against our best interests, and destroy or otherwise 439 incapacitate us. This admittedly sounds like science fiction, but given that 440 it is an unprecedented threat and that our future society will very likely 441 rely heavily on intelligent machines, it seems that significant caution is 442 merited.`),E.forEach(i),kt=u(e),fe=s(e,"P",{});var Xo=r(fe);fn=o(Xo,`I should note that none of the above-listed threats are guaranteed to 443 materialize. However, if we think probabilistically and consider how bad it 444 would be if they did happen, we realize that they deserve way more attention 445 than theyâre currently getting.`),Xo.forEach(i),_t=u(e),me=s(e,"H3",{});var Yo=r(me);mn=o(Yo,"Stagnation"),Yo.forEach(i),It=u(e),I=s(e,"P",{});var Me=r(I);pn=o(Me,`Even if we donât go extinct, it is still possible that we might fail to 446 continue progressing technologically a point where we can achieve the future 447 I have imagined. There are lots of reasons why this could happen â for 448 example, any of the extinction threats above could also just set humanity 449 back to a point where further technological progress is impossible, our 450 institutions could decay to a point where they are not efficient enough to 451 produce new innovations but still somehow stable enough to persist, or we 452 may have just already picked all the low-hanging scientific fruit. It 453 already seems to be the case that `),pe=s(Me,"A",{href:!0});var Zo=r(pe);yn=o(Zo,"technological progress has been slowing down in the past few decades"),Zo.forEach(i),wn=o(Me,`, and 454 `),ye=s(Me,"A",{href:!0});var $o=r(ye);gn=o($o,"future growth may be much more difficult than it has been"),$o.forEach(i),vn=o(Me,` since the start of the industrial revolution. We should look carefully into 455 the causes of possible stagnation and reform our institutions to address them. 456 Perhaps the best place to start is by reforming the educational and academic 457 institutions to actually teach effectively and to incentivize groundbreaking 458 research instead of persisting in centuries-old hierarchical structures and processes 459 that require endless hoop-jumping.`),Me.forEach(i),Et=u(e),O=s(e,"H3",{id:!0});var ea=r(O);bn=o(ea,"Derailment"),ea.forEach(i),xt=u(e),we=s(e,"P",{});var ta=r(we);kn=o(ta,`A worrisome trend I have seen over the past couple of decades, fomented 460 especially by the internet, is the derailment of human psychology in favor 461 of the endless consumption of goods whose impact on our well-being is not 462 obviously positive. I see lots of people wondering whether services like 463 social media are actually net positives â most of these worries focu
463s on the 464 impact of those services on individual mental health and productivity 465 (certainly worth paying attention to!), but those effects are only some of 466 the ways in which technology may affect our long-term potential to create a 467 healthier and more robust society. We have already seen how the 468 resource-extraction technologies of the past century have blighted the 469 planet; shouldnât we have learned our lesson to be more careful with 470 deploying transformative technologies when our collective future is on the 471 line?`),ta.forEach(i),Tt=u(e),z=s(e,"P",{});var Gt=r(z);_n=o(Gt,`I donât want to be misunderstood: I am strongly in favor of technological 472 progress, but only insofar as it actually constitutes `),Qe=s(Gt,"EM",{});var ia=r(Qe);In=o(ia,"progress"),ia.forEach(i),En=o(Gt,` â that 473 is, as far as it promotes our collective well-being and moves us closer to the 474 goals I have outlined above. The internet and other modern innovations do make 475 possible many services I find to be incredibly useful (shout out to my friend 476 Wikipedia), but at the same time it is unclear to me how services that allow 477 us to wile away our time reading hollow jokes and to constantly feel inferior 478 to the air-brushed celebrities and âinfluencersâ that have suddenly come to be 479 neighbors with us in our (virtual) communities are a step in the right direction. 480 The most successful online tech companies use clever and sophisticated âmachine 481 learningâ algorithms to get a detailed idea of usersâ interests and preferences 482 so they can more effectively tug on our emotions and market us more goods of 483 questionable worth. Surely we can find better uses for these innovations?`),Gt.forEach(i),At=u(e),T=s(e,"BLOCKQUOTE",{class:!0});var Rt=r(T);Xe=s(Rt,"P",{});var na=r(Xe);xn=o(na,"We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters."),na.forEach(i),Tn=u(Rt),Ye=s(Rt,"CITE",{});var oa=r(Ye);An=o(oa,"Peter Thiel"),oa.forEach(i),Rt.forEach(i),Ht=u(e),ge=s(e,"H3",{});var aa=r(ge);Hn=o(aa,"Subjugation"),aa.forEach(i),qt=u(e),ve=s(e,"P",{});var sa=r(ve);qn=o(sa,`Even if we manage to dodge all of the obstacles mentioned so far, we may 484 still not be completely in the clear. Selfish interests may still deter us 485 from our goal. After all, the idealistic visions of many of the past 486 projects meant to better the lot of mankind were turned sour in part because 487 of the excessive concentration of power and subsequent abuse of that power.`),sa.forEach(i),Wt=u(e),y=s(e,"P",{});var x=r(y);Wn=o(x,`Wealth inequality has received a lot of attention in the U.S. in recent 488 years, and, while the issue is more complicated than is commonly portrayed 489 in mainstream treatments of the subject, it is still quite clear that 490 something has changed about the modern economic system that leads to some 491 individuals possessing outrageous monetary power. Although there may be some 492 advantages to some individuals having such power â for example, people like 493 Bill and Melinda Gates perform charitable work at a larger scale and more 494 efficiently than any government group I am aware of â the current situation 495 is still concerning and can only be expected to intensify as globalization 496 continues and improved technology increasingly rewards holders of capital 497 more than laborers. The former factor â globalization â does seem to be 498 facing friction from things like Brexit and Trump-style isolationism, but 499 the `),be=s(x,"A",{href:!0});var ra=r(be);Pn=o(ra,"actions of nations like China"),ra.forEach(i),jn=o(x,` 500 and the increasing interconnectedness of everything facilitated by the internet 501 suggest that the march of global economic entanglement will continue. The latter 502 factor â automation of labor â seems slated to be an even greater contributor 503 to wealth inequality, and one that is not likely to slack off anytime soon. As 504 Iâve already mentioned, humans will increasingly find themselves outmoded by 505 machines in their occupations, and 506 `),ke=s(x,"A",{href:!0});var la=r(ke);zn=o(la,"whoever owns the machines will find themselves rolling in the dough"),la.forEach(i),Sn=o(x,`. It is a mistake to think that anyoneâs job is immune to automation: 507 `),_e=s(x,"A",{href:!0});var ha=r(_e);Mn=o(ha,"even highly-educated workers could find themselves replaced"),ha.forEac
507h(i),Cn=o(x,` 508 by the next generation of pseudo-intelligent machines. Absent 509 `),Ze=s(x,"EM",{});var ca=r(Ze);Ln=o(ca,"carefully"),ca.forEach(i),On=o(x,`-designed public policy to fairly distribute the new 510 machine-generated wealth, Iâm worried that we may find ourselves facing a 511 dystopian scene of subjugation by the capital-holding elite. On the other 512 hand, if we can avoid that scenario, the potentially gains to the whole of 513 humanity are immense.`),x.forEach(i),Pt=u(e),Ie=s(e,"H2",{});var ua=r(Ie);Un=o(ua,"Conclusion"),ua.forEach(i),jt=u(e),Ee=s(e,"P",{});var da=r(Ee);Bn=o(da,`Humanityâs future lies along a path promising both great rewards and 514 formidable obstacles. If we can successfully navigate the obstacles in our 515 way, we can arrive at a future characterized by pleasant, meaningful, and 516 healthy lives; guaranteed rights and opportunities; great wealth; great 517 technical and cultural achievements; and, overall, widespread moral 518 achievement, whatever that may mean for the humans of the time.`),da.forEach(i),zt=u(e),xe=s(e,"P",{});var fa=r(xe);Nn=o(fa,"â"),fa.forEach(i),St=u(e),Te=s(e,"P",{});var ma=r(Te);Gn=o(ma,`If you enjoyed this essay and want to think more carefully about these 519 issues and be involved in making a better future, here are some resources 520 Iâve found helpful:`),ma.forEach(i),Mt=u(e),v=s(e,"UL",{});var M=r(v);Ae=s(M,"LI",{});var ro=r(Ae);He=s(ro,"A",{href:!0});var pa=r(He);
520Rn=o(pa,"80,000 hours"),pa.forEach(i),Dn=o(ro,` for well-thought-out advice 521 about how to have an impactful career. Many of their focus areas involve 522 issues touched upon here.`),ro.forEach(i),Jn=u(M),U=s(M,"LI",{});var Dt=r(U);Fn=o(Dt,"Works of fiction like Iain Banksâ "),qe=s(Dt,"A",{href:!0});var ya=r(qe);Vn=o(ya,"Culture series"),ya.forEach(i),Kn=o(Dt," to help you get excited about what our collective future could look like."),Dt.forEach(i),Qn=u(M),b=s(M,"LI",{});var C=r(b);Xn=o(C,`Podcasts to help you be better-informed about social and economic issues 523 that contribute to or detract from our collective flourishing â here are 524 some of my favorites: `),We=s(C,"A",{href:!0});var wa=r(We);Yn=o(wa,"Conversations with Tyler"),wa.forEach(i),Zn=o(C,", "),Pe=s(C,"A",{href:!0});var ga=r(Pe);$n=o(ga,"EconTalk"),ga.forEach(i),eo=o(C,`, the 525 `),je=s(C,"A",{href:!0});var va=r(je);to=o(va,"80,000 hours podcast"),va.forEach(i),io=o(C,"."),C.forEach(i),no=u(M),B=s(M,"LI",{});var Jt=r(B);oo=o(Jt,`Technical books to help structure your thinking about our aggregate 526 well-being â hereâs one Iâve been reading recently (free as of July 527 2020): `),ze=s(Jt,"A",{href:!0});var ba=r(ze);ao=o(ba,"Economics as Applied Ethics"),ba.forEach(i),so=o(Jt,"."),Jt.forEach(i),M.forEach(i),this.h()},h(){d(G,"href",ho+"/posts/deeper-with-axiom-m/"),d(J,"href","https://quevivasbien.wordpress.com/2019/07/12/formalizing-the-idea-of-preference/"),d(F,"href",ho+"/posts/very-rough-moral-theory/"),d(V,"href",ho+"/posts/deeper-with-axiom-m/"),d(q,"href","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow%27s_impossibility_theorem"),d(K,"href","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_choice_theory"),d(Y,"href","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism"),d(te,"href","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy"),d(ae,"href","https://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/"),d(se,"href","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Rawls"),d(le,"href","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utopia_(book)"),d(ce,"href","https://web.archive.org/web/20200616084146/https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/"),d(ue,"href","https://samharris.org/podcasts/210-logic-doomsday/"),d(de,"href","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Compatible"),d(pe,"href","https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/peter-thiel/"),d(ye,"href","https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_gordon_the_death_of_innovation_the_end_of_growth"),d(O,"id","derailment"),d(T,"class","wp-block-quote"),d(be,"href","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative"),d(ke,"href","https://wol.iza.org/articles/who-owns-the-robots-rules-the-world/long"),d(_e,"href","https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3482150"),d(He,"href","https://80000hours.org/"),d(qe,"href","https://www.goodreads.com/series/49118-culture"),d(We,"href","https://conversationswithtyler.com/"),d(Pe,"href","https://www.econtalk.org/"),d(je,"href","https://80000hours.org/podcast/"),d(ze,"href","https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-50319-6")},m(e,l){h(e,A,l),t(A,Ft),h(e,$e,l),h(e,N,l),t(N,Vt),h(e,et,l),h(e,g,l),t(g,Kt),t(g,G),t(G,Qt),t(g,Xt),t(g,Ce),t(Ce,Yt),t(g,Zt),t(g,Le),t(Le,$t),t(g,ei),h(e,tt,l),h(e,R,l),t(R,ti),h(e,it,l),h(e,D,l),t(D,Oe),t(Oe,ii),h(e,nt,l),h(e,H,l),t(H,ni),t(H,J),t(J,oi),t(H,ai),h(e,ot,l),h(e,m,l),t(m,si),t(m,F),t(F,ri),t(m,li),t(m,V),t(V,hi),t(m,ci),t(m,q),t(q,ui),t(q,Ue),t(Ue,di),t(q,fi),t(m,mi),t(m,K),t(K,pi),t(m,yi),t(m,Be),t(Be,wi),h(e,at,l),h(e,Q,l),t(Q,gi),h(e,st,l),h(e,X,l),t(X,vi),h(e,rt,l),h(e,f,l),t(f,Ne),t(Ne,bi),t(f,ki),t(f,Ge),t(Ge,_i),t(f,Ii),t(f,Re),t(Re,Ei),t(f,xi),t(f,De),t(De,Ti),t(f,Ai),t(f,Je),t(Je,Hi),t(f,qi),t(f,L),t(L,Wi),t(L,Y),t(Y,Pi),t(L,ji),t(f,zi),t(f,Fe),t(Fe,Si),h(e,lt,l),h(e,Z,l),t(Z,Mi),h(e,ht,l),h(e,$,l),t($,Ci),h(e,ct,l),h(e,W,l),t(W,Li),t(W,Ve),t(Ve,Oi),t(W,Ui),h(e,ut,l),h(e,ee,l),t(ee,Bi),h(e,dt,l),h(e,P,l),t(P,Ni),t(P,te),t(te,Gi),t(P,Ri),h(e,ft,l),h(e,ie,l),t(ie,Di),h(e,mt,l),h(e,ne,l),t(ne,Ji),h(e,pt,l),h(e,oe,l),t(oe,Fi),h(e,yt,l),h(e,_,l),t(_,Vi),t(_,ae),t(ae,Ki),t(_,Qi),t(_,se),t(se,Xi),t(_,Yi),h(e,wt,l),h(e,re,l),t(re,Zi),h(e,gt,l),h(e,j,l),t(j,$i),t(j,le),t(le,en),t(j,tn),h(e,vt,l),h(e,he,l),t(he,nn),h(e,bt,l),h(e,p,l),t(p,on),t(p,ce),t(ce,an),t(p,sn),t(p,ue),t(ue,rn),t(p,ln),t(p,Ke),t(Ke,hn),t(p,cn),t(p,de),t(de,un),t(p,dn),h(e,kt,l),h(e,fe,l),t(fe,fn),h(e,_t,l),h(e,me,l),t(me,mn),h(e,It,l),h(e,I,l),t(I,pn),t(I,pe),t(pe,yn),t(I,wn),t(I,ye),t(ye,gn),t(I,vn),h(e,Et,l),h(e,O,l),t(O,bn),h(e,xt,l),h(e,we,l),t(we,kn),h(e,Tt,l),h(e,z,l),t(z,_n),t(z,Qe),t(Qe,In),t(z,En),h(e,At,l),h(e,T,l),t(T,Xe),t(Xe,xn),t(T,Tn),t(T,Ye),t(Ye,An),h(e,Ht,l),h(e,ge,l),t(ge,Hn),h(e,qt,l),h(e,ve,l),t(ve,qn),h(e,Wt,l),h(e,y,l),t(y,Wn),t(y,be),t(be,Pn),t(y,jn),t(y,ke),t(ke,zn),t(y,Sn),t(y,_e),t(_e,Mn),t(y,Cn),t(y,Ze),t(Ze,Ln),t(y,On),h(e,Pt,l),h(e,Ie,l),t(Ie,Un),h(e,jt,l),h(e,Ee,l),t(Ee,Bn),h(e,zt,l),h(e,xe,l),t(xe,Nn),h(e,St,l),h(e,Te,l),t(Te,Gn),h(e,Mt,l),h(e,v,l),t(v,Ae),t(Ae,He),t(He,Rn),t(Ae,Dn),t(v,Jn),t(v,U),t(U,Fn),t(U,qe),t(qe,Vn),t(U,Kn),t(v,Qn),t(v,b),t(b,Xn),t(b,We),t(We,Yn),t(b,Zn),t(b,Pe),t(Pe,$n),t(b,eo),t(b,je),t(je,to),t(b,io),t(v,no),t(v,B),t(B,oo),t(B,ze),t(ze,ao),t(B,so)},p:lo,i:lo,o:lo,d(e){e&&i(A),e&&i($e),e&&i(N),e&&i(et),e&&i(g),e&&i(tt),e&&i(R),e&&i(it),e&&i(D),e&&i(nt),e&&i(H),e&&i(ot),e&&i(m),e&&i(at),e&&i(Q),e&&i(st),e&&i(X),e&&i(rt),e&&i(f),e&&i(lt),e&&i(Z),e&&i(ht),e&&i($),e&&i(ct),e&&i(W),e&&i(ut),e&&i(ee),e&&i(dt),e&&i(P),e&&i(ft),e&&i(ie),e&&i(mt),e&&i(ne),e&&i(pt),e&&i(oe),e&&i(yt),e&&i(_),e&&i(wt),e&&i(re),e&&i(gt),e&&i(j),e&&i(vt),e&&i(he),e&&i(bt),e&&i(p),e&&i(kt),e&&i(fe),e&&i(_t),e&&i(me),e&&i(It),e&&i(I),e&&i(Et),e&&i(O),e&&i(xt),e&&i(we),e&&i(Tt),e&&i(z),e&&i(At),e&&i(T),e&&i(Ht),e&&i(ge),e&&i(qt),e&&i(ve),e&&i(Wt),e&&i(y),e&&i(Pt),e&&i(Ie),e&&i(jt),e&&i(Ee),e&&i(zt),e&&i(xe),e&&i(St),e&&i(Te),e&&i(Mt),e&&i(v)}}}class 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