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91                        <span class="skills">Mathematical Biology - Epidemiology - Ecology</span>
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112                                <h3>Statistical Methodologies<br></h3>
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123                                <h3>Lymphatic Filariasis<br>
124                                 Modelling<br></h3>
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146                                <h3>Modelling of Public Health
147                                Interventions<br></h3>
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158                                <h3>Online Modelling<br>
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170                                <h3>Pattern Formation<br></h3>
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186                    <h2>About</h2>
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192                    <p>
193                      I am currently a senior scientist at the
194                      <a href="http://www.bccdc.ca/our-research/people/mike-irvine">British Columbia Centre for Disease Control</a> and
195                      an <a href="https://www.sfu.ca/fhs/about/people/profiles/michael-irvine.html">adjunct professor at Simon Fraser University in the Faculty of Health Sciences</a>.
196                      Previously, I was a postdoctoral research fellow at the
197                      <a href="https://www.math.ubc.ca/Research/MathBio/index.php">
198                      University of British Columbia</a>, the
199                      <a href="http://www.bccdc.ca/our-research">British
200                        Columbia Centre for Disease Control</a> and the
201                        <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/governments/organizational-structure/ministries-organizations/ministries/mental-health-addictions">
202                        BC Ministry of Mental Health and Addictions</a>.
203                        I use an array of approaches from Bayesian
204                        statistics and mathematical modelling.
205                    </p>
206
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208                <div class="col-lg-4">
209                  <p>
210                      I also completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the
211                      <a href="http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/cross_fac/wider/">
212                      University of Warwick</a>
213                      modelling the elimination of lympahtic filariasis
214                      as part of the neglected tropical disease modelling
215                      consortium.
216                  </p>
217                  <p>
218                     I completed a PhD in the modelling of pattern
219                     formation in ecology as part of the University of Warwick
220                     Centre for Complexity Science.
221                   </p>
222                  <p>
223                     I am passionate about using a wide-variety of analytic and
224                     statistical tools to get the most insight from data
225                     available; from data-mining to inference and model-based
226                     prediction.
227                  </p>
228                  <p>
229                    I am always interested in new opportunities for
230                    collaboration. My contact details are below.
231                  </p>
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249                    <h2>Selected publications</h2>
250                    <hr class="star-primary">
251                </div>
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253            <div class="row">
254              <div class="col-lg-12 text-center">
255                <ul class="list-group">
256
257                  <li class="list-group-item">
258                             <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00304-2">Estimating naloxone need in the USA across fentanyl, heroin, and prescription opioid epidemics: a modelling study</a>.<br>
259                             <b>Irvine MA</b>, Oller D, Boggis J, Bishop B, Coombs D, Wheeler E, Doe-Simkins M, Walley AY, Marshall BD, Bratberg J, Green TC<br>
260                             <i>The Lancet Public Health</i> (2022)<br>
261                             Website: <a href="http://naloxoneneededtosave.org">How much naloxone is needed to save?</a>
262                  </li>
263                  <li class="list-group-item">
264                       <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211710">Quantifying transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of intervention within long-term healthcare facilities</a>.<br>
265                       Stockdale JE, Anderson SC, Edwards AM, Iyaniwura SA, Mulberry N, Otterstatter MC, Janjua NZ, Coombs D, Colijn C, <b>Irvine MA</b><br>
266                       <i>Royal Society Open Science</i> (2022)<br>
267                       Software: <a href="https://sempwn.github.io/cr0eso/">Cr0eso R package</a>.
268                  </li>
269                  <li class="list-group-item">
270                     <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008274">An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of Pediatric Emergency Department Visits During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic</a>.<br>
271                     <b>Irvine MA</b>, Portales-Casamar E, Goldman RD<br>
272                     <i>Pediatric emergency care</i> (2021)<br>
273                  </li>
274                  <li class="list-group-item">
275                     <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.11.163">Severe COVID-19 infection and pediatric comorbidities: a systematic review and meta-analysis</a>.<br>
276                     Tsankov BK, Allaire JM, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Lopez AA, Sauvé LJ, Vallance BA, Jacobson K<br>
277                     <i>International Journal of Infectious Diseases.</i> (2021)<br>
278                  </li>
279                  <li class="list-group-item">
280                     <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2020.102726">How simulation modeling can support the public health response to the opioid crisis in North America: setting priorities and assessing value</a>.<br>
281                     Bansback NJ, Barbosa C, Barocas J, Bayoumi AM, Behrends C, Chhatwal J, Cipriano LE, Coffin P, Goldhaber-Fiebert J, Hoch JS, <b>Irvine MA</b><br>
282                     <i>The International journal of drug policy</i> (2021)<br>
283                  </li>
284                  <li class="list-group-item">
285                           <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008274">Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model of physical distancing</a>.<br>
286                           Anderson SC, Edwards AM, Yerlanov M, Mulberry N, Stockdale JE, Iyaniwura SA, Falcao RC, Otterstatter MC, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Janjua NZ, Coombs D, Colijn C<br>
287                           <i>PLoS Computational Biology</i> (2020)<br>
288                           Software: <a href="https://github.com/seananderson/covidseir">Github repository</a>.
289                  </li>
290                  <li class="list-group-item">
291                         <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/emermed-2020-210273">Paediatric patients seen in 18 emergency departments during the COVID-19 pandemic</a>.<br>
292                         Goldman RD, Grafstein E, Barclay N, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Portales-Casamar E<br>
293                         <i>Emergency Medicine Journal</i> (2020)<br>
294                  </li>
295                  <li class="list-group-item">
296                       <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2020.108337">Estimates of opioid use disorder prevalence from a regression-based multi-sample stratified capture-recapture analysis</a>.<br>
297                       Min JE, Pearce LA, Homayra F, Dale LM, Barocas JA, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Slaunwhite AK, McGowan G, Torban M, Nosyk B<br>
298                       <i>Drug and Alcohol Dependence</i> (2020)<br>
299                  </li>
300                  <li class="list-group-item">
301                           <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.11.163">Severe COVID-19 infection and pediatric comorbidities: a systematic review and meta-analysis</a>.<br>
302                           Tsankov BK, Allaire JM, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Lopez AA, Sauve LJ, Vallance BA, Jacobson K<br>
303                           <i>International Journal of Infectious Diseases</i> (2020)<br>
304                  </li>
305                  <li class="list-group-item">
306                         <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008644">Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA)</a>.<br>
307                         Collyer BS, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Hollingsworth TD, Bradley M, Anderson RM<br>
308                         <i>PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases</i> (2020)<br>
309                  </li>
310                  <li class="list-group-item">
311                       <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1007%2Fs11524-020-00441-x">Modeling COVID-19 and Its Impacts on US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Detention Facilities, 2020</a>.<br>
312                       <b>Irvine MA</b>, Coombs D, Skarha J, del Pozo B, Rich J, Taxman F, Green TC<br>
313                       <i>Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine</i> (2020)<br>
314                  </li>
315                  <li class="list-group-item">
316                     <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m772">Opioid agonist treatment and risk of mortality during opioid overdose public health emergency: population based retrospective cohort study</a>.<br>
317                     Pearce LA, Min JE, Piske M, Zhou H, Homayra F, Slaunwhite A, <b>Irvine MA</b>, McGowan G, Nosyk B<br>
318                     <i>BMJ</i> (2020)<br>
319                  </li>
320                  <li class="list-group-item">
321                     <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006869">The use of mixture density networks in the emulation of complex epidemiological individual-based models</a>.<br>
322                     Davis CN, Hollingsworth TD, Caudron Q, <b>Irvine MA</b><br>
323                     <i>PLoS computational biology</i> (2020)<br>
324                     Software: <a href="https://github.com/QCaudron/pydra">Github repository</a>.
325                  </li>
326                  <li class="list-group-item">
327                    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2019.11.011">The role of mathematical modelling in aiding public health policy decision-making: A case study of the BC opioid overdose emergency</a>.<br>
328                    <b>Irvine MA</b>, McGowan R, Hammond K, Davison C, Coombs D, Gilbert M<br>
329                    <i>International Journal of Drug Policy</i> (2019)<br>
330                  </li>
331                  <li class="list-group-item">
332                     <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100360">Predicting the impact of clustered risk and testing behaviour patterns on the population-level effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Greater Vancouver, Canada</a>.<br>
333                     <b>Irvine MA</b>, Salway T, Grennan T, Wong J, Gilbert M, Coombs D<br>
334                     <i>Epidemics</i> (2019)<br>
335                  </li>
336                  <li class="list-group-item">
337                     <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30044-6">Modelling the combined impact of interventions in averting deaths during a synthetic‐opioid overdose epidemic</a>.<br>
338                     <b>Irvine MA</b>, Buxton JA, Otterstatter M, Balshaw R, Gustafson R, Tyndall M, Kendall P, Kerr Thomas, Gilbert M, and Coombs D<br>
339                     <i>Addiction</i> (2019)<br>
340                     News coverage: <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-od-crisis-lives-saved-1.5163581">CBC news</a>,
341                     <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-unsanctioned-overdose-prevention-site-opens-in-maple-ridge-renewing/">Globe and Mail</a>,
342                     <a href="https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/rapid-response-to-b-c-s-overdose-crisis-saved-thousands-report-finds">National Post</a>,
343                     <a href="https://www.straight.com/news/1252756/without-harm-reduction-overdoses-would-have-killed-thousands-more-bc-analysis-finds">Georgia Straight</a>
344                  </li>
345                  <li class="list-group-item">
346                     <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciy003">Are Alternative Strategies Required to Accelerate the Global Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis? Insights From Mathematical Models</a>.<br>
347                     Stolk WA, Prada JM, Smith ME, Kontoroupis P, de Vos AS,
348                     Touloupou P, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Brown P, Subramanian S, Kloek M,
349                     Michael E, Hollingsworth TD, and de Vlas SJ<br>
350                     <i>Clinical Infectious Diseases</i> (2018)<br>
351                  </li>
352                  <li class="list-group-item">
353                      <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.009">Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python</a>.<br>
354                      <b>Irvine MA</b>, and Hollingsworth TD<br>
355                      <i>Epidemics</i> (2018)<br>
356                      Software: <a href="https://github.com/sempwn/ABCPRC">Github repository</a>
357                  </li>
358                  <li class="list-group-item">
359                    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30044-6">Distribution of take-home opioid antagonist kits during a synthetic opioid epidemic in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study</a>.<br>
360                    <b>Irvine MA</b>, Buxton JA, Otterstatter M, Balshaw R, Gustafson R, Tyndall M, Kendall P, Kerr Thomas, Gilbert M, and Coombs D<br>
361                    <i>The Lancet Public Health</i> (2018)<br>
362                    News coverage: <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1373929">CTV news</a>,
363                    <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/take-home-naloxone-program-bc-1.4625201?cmp=rss">CBC news</a>,
364                    <a href="http://vancouversun.com/health/local-health/making-naloxone-freely-available-reduced-fentanyl-overdose-deaths-in-b-c-study">Vancouver Sun</a>,
365                    <a href="http://www.radionl.com/2018/04/18/6754/">Radio NL</a>,
366                    <a href="http://www.theprovince.com/health/local-health/making+naloxone+freely+available+reduced+fentanyl/17305501/story.html">The Province</a>, and
367                    <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-overdose/take-home-narcan-kits-lifesaving-in-opioid-overdoses-idUSKBN1I2416">Reuters</a>.
368                  </li>
369                  <li class="list-group-item">
370                    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2017.0849">A novel Bayesian approach to predicting reductions in HIV incidence following increased testing interventions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada</a>.<br>
371                    <b>Irvine MA</b>, Konrad BP, Balshaw R, Gilbert M, and Coombs D<br>
372                    <i>Roy. Soc. Interface</i> (2018)<br>
373                    Blog post: <a href="https://medium.com/ubcscience/bayesian-analysis-sciences-best-attempt-at-fortune-telling-c862bdd290eb">Medium</a>.
374                  </li>
375                  <li class="list-group-item">
376                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.2253">Understanding heterogeneities in mosquito-bite exposure and infection distributions for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis</a>.<br>
377                    <b>Irvine MA</b>, Kazura JW, Hollingsworth TD, and Reimer LJ<br>
378                    <i>Proc. Roy. Soc. B.</i> (2018)<br>
379                    News coverage: <a href="http://www.lstmed.ac.uk/news-events/news/the-importance-of-heterogeneity-on-the-management-of-vector-borne-diseases">LSTM news</a>.
380                  </li>
381                  <li class="list-group-item">
382                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17346-6">Conservation of pattern as a tool for inference on spatial snapshots in ecological data</a>.<br>
383                    <b>Irvine MA</b>, Bull JC, and Keeling MJ<br>
384                    <i>Scientific Reports.</i> (2018)
385                  </li>
386                  <li class="list-group-item">
387                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(17)30123-6">Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in primary care: a health economics modelling analysis</a>.<br>
388                      Baggaley RF, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Leber W, Cambiano V, Figueroa J, McMullen H, Anderson J, Santos AC , Terris-Prestholt F, Miners A, Hollingsworth TD, and Griffiths CJ<br>
389                    <i>The Lancet HIV.</i> (2017)<br>
390                    News coverage: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/health-40756196">BBC news</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/07/30/hiv-tests-should-offered-everyone-high-risk-areas-enroll-new/">The Telegraph</a>,
391                     <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jul/30/hiv-tests-for-gps-new-patients-could-save-lives-and-money-says-study">The Guardian</a>,
392                     <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2142100/">New Scientist</a>, and
393                     <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/call-to-make-family-doctors-test-all-patients-for-hiv-p5qq50qzq">The Times</a>.
394                     <br>
395                     Outcomes: <a href="https://ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/documents/HIV-hepatitis-B-and-C-testing-public-health-guidance.pdf">Public health guidance on HIV, hepatitis B and C testing in the EU/EEA</a>.
396                  </li>
397                  <li class="list-group-item">
398                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.006">Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework</a>.<br>
399                    Smith ME,  Singh BK, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Stolk WA,  Subramanian S, Hollingsworth TD,  and Michael E<br>
400                    <i>Epidemics.</i> (2017)
401                  </li>
402                  <li class="list-group-item">
403                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005206"> Making transmission models accessible to end-users: the example of TRANSFIL</a>.<br>
404                    <b>Irvine MA</b>, and Hollingsworth TD<br>
405                    <i>PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases</i>. (2017)<br>
406                    Outcomes: <a href="https://sempwn.github.io/TRANSFIL2/">Online interactive dashboard</a>.
407                  </li>
408                  <li class="list-group-item">
409                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30467-4">Effectiveness of a triple-drug regimen for global elimination of lymphatic filariasis: a modelling study</a>.<br>
410                      <b>Irvine MA</b>, Stolk WA, Smith ME, Subramanian S, Singh BK, Weil GJ, Michael E, and Hollingsworth TD <br>
411                      <i>The Lancet Infectious Diseases</i>. (2016)<br>
412                      Outcomes:
413                      <a href="http://www.who.int/lymphatic_filariasis/resources/9789241550161/en/">
414                          World Health Organisation guidelines on
415                          alternative mass drug administration
416                          regimens to eliminate lymphatic filariasis
417                      </a>.
418                  </li>
419                  <li class="list-group-item">
420                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0463">Disease transmission promotes evolution of host spatial patterns</a>.<br>
421                      <b>Irvine MA</b>, Bull JC, and Keeling MJ <br>
422                      <i>Journal of the  Royal Society Interface</i>. (2016)<br>
423                  </li>
424                  <li class="list-group-item">
425                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2015.12.001">Aggregation dynamics explain vegetation patch-size distributions</a>.<br>
426                      <b>Irvine MA</b>, Bull JC, and Keeling MJ<br>
427                       <i>Theoretical population biology</i>. (2016) <br>
428                  </li>
429                  <li class="list-group-item">
430                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.150519">Fractal measures of spatial pattern as a heuristic for return rate in vegetative systems</a>.<br>
431                      <b>Irvine MA</b>, Jackson EL, Kenyon EJ, Cook KJ, Keeling MJ, and Bull JC<br>
432                       <i>Royal Society open science</i>. (2016) <br>
433                  </li>
434
435                  <li class="list-group-item">
436                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trw024">Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection</a>.<br>
437<b>Irvine MA</b>, Njenga SM, Gunawardena S, Wamae CN, Cano J, Brooker SJ, and Hollingsworth TD <br>
438<i>Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.</i> (2016) <br>
439                  </li>
440
441                  <li class="list-group-item">
442                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1152-3">Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis-aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination</a>.<br>
443<b>Irvine MA</b>, Reimer LJ, Njenga SM, Gunawardena S, Kelly-Hope L, Bockarie M, and Hollingsworth TD<br>
444<i>Parasites &amp; vectors</i>. (2015) <br>
445                  </li>
446
447                  <li class="list-group-item">
448                    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1">
448Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases</a>.<br>
449Hollingsworth TD, Adams ER, Anderson RM, Atkins K, Bartsch S, Basáñez MG, Behrend M, Blok DJ, Chapman LA, Coffeng L, Courtenay O,&hellip;, <b>Irvine MA</b>, &hellip;, and NTD Modelling Consortium <br>
450<i>Parasites &amp; vectors</i>. (2015) <br>
451                  </li>
452
453
454              </ul>
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508                        <h3>Location</h3>
509                        <p>Vancouver, CA</p>
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512                        <h3>Around the Web</h3>
513                        <ul class="list-inline">
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533                        <h3>Contact</h3>
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573                            <h2>Statistical Methodologies</h2>
574                            <hr class="star-primary">
575                            <img src="img/portfolio/stats_scaled.png" class="img-responsive img-centered" alt="">
576                            <p>
577                               Data in ecology and epidemiology is often sparse and noisy.
578                               The goal is to be able to perform model fitting based on these data combined with expert knowledge.
579                               Using Bayesian methodologies allows unknowns to be taken into account and to avoid over-fitting.
580                               My research goals are to leverage the full information from data in order to better inform modelling work.
581                            </p>
582                            <h3> Publications </h3>
583                            <ul class="list-group">
584                              <li class="list-group-item">
585                                <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.009">Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python</a>.<br>
586                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, and Hollingsworth TD
587                                <i>Epidemics</i> (2018)<br>
588                                Software: <a href="https://github.com/sempwn/ABCPRC">Github repository</a>
589                              </li>
590                              <li class="list-group-item">
591                                <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30044-6">Distribution of take-home opioid antagonist kits during a synthetic opioid epidemic in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study</a>.<br>
592                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, Buxton JA, Otterstatter M, Balshaw R, Gustafson R, Tyndall M, Kendall P, Kerr Thomas, Gilbert M, and Coombs D
593                                <i>The Lancet Public Health</i> (2018)<br>
594                                News coverage: <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1373929">CTV news</a>,
595                                <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/take-home-naloxone-program-bc-1.4625201?cmp=rss">CBC news</a>,
596                                <a href="http://vancouversun.com/health/local-health/making-naloxone-freely-available-reduced-fentanyl-overdose-deaths-in-b-c-study">Vancouver Sun</a>,
597                                <a href="http://www.radionl.com/2018/04/18/6754/">Radio NL</a>,
598                                <a href="http://www.theprovince.com/health/local-health/making+naloxone+freely+available+reduced+fentanyl/17305501/story.html">The Province</a>,
599                                <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?binId=1.1184759">CTV News</a>
600                              </li>
601                              <li class="list-group-item">
602                                <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2017.0849">A novel Bayesian approach to predicting reductions in HIV incidence following increased testing interventions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada</a>.<br>
603                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, Konrad BP, Balshaw R, Gilbert M, and Coombs D
604                                <i>Roy. Soc. Interface</i> (2018)<br>
605                                Blog post: <a href="https://medium.com/ubcscience/bayesian-analysis-sciences-best-attempt-at-fortune-telling-c862bdd290eb">Medium</a>.
606                              </li>
607                              <li class="list-group-item">
608                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.2253">Understanding heterogeneities in mosquito-bite exposure and infection distributions for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis</a>.<br>
609                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Kazura JW, Hollingsworth TD, and Reimer LJ
610                                  <i>Proc. Roy. Soc. B.</i> (2018)<br>
611                                  News coverage: <a href="http://www.lstmed.ac.uk/news-events/news/the-importance-of-heterogeneity-on-the-management-of-vector-borne-diseases">LSTM news</a>.
612                              </li>
613                              <li class="list-group-item">
614                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17346-6">Conservation of pattern as a tool for inference on spatial snapshots in ecological data</a>.<br>
615                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, Bull JC, Keeling MJ.
616                                <i>Scientific Reports.</i> (2018)
617                              </li>
618                              <li class="list-group-item">
619                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.006">Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework</a>.<br>
620                                Smith ME,  Singh BK, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Wilma A. Stolk,  Subramanian S, Hollingsworth TD,  Michael E.
621                                <i>Epidemics.</i> (2017)
622                              </li>
623                              <li class="list-group-item">
624                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trw024">Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection</a>.<br>
625    Irvine MA, Njenga SM, Gunawardena S, Wamae CN, Cano J, Brooker SJ, Hollingsworth TD.
626     <i>Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.</i>
627     <b>110</b>(2) pp. 118-24 (2016)
628                              </li>
629                            </ul>
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648                        <div class="modal-body">
649                            <h2>Lymphatic Filariasis</h2>
650                            <hr class="star-primary">
651                            <img src="img/portfolio/ntdlogo_scaled.png" class="img-responsive img-centered" alt="">
652                            <p>
653                              As part of the Neglected Tropical Diseases modelling consortium, I investigated the elimination of lymphatic filariasis as a global public health problem.
654                              Lymphatic filariasis or elephantiasis is a mosquito-borne parasitic infection that can cause swelling of the limbs and testes.
655                              Currently 790 million people are at risk of the disease and 68 million are currently infected with a further 20 million suffering from chronic morbidity.
656
657                            </p>
658                            <h3> Publications </h3>
659                            <ul class="list-group">
660                              <li class="list-group-item">
661                                 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciy003">Are Alternative Strategies Required to Accelerate the Global Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis? Insights From Mathematical Models</a>.<br>
662                                 Stolk WA, Prada JM, Smith ME, Kontoroupis P, de Vos AS,
663                                 Touloupou P, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Brown P, Subramanian S, Kloek M,
664                                 Michael E, Hollingsworth TD, and de Vlas SJ
665                                 <i>Clinical Infectious Diseases</i> (2018)<br>
666                              </li>
667                              <li class="list-group-item">
668                                <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.009">Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python</a>.<br>
669                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, and Hollingsworth TD
670                                <i>Epidemics</i> (2018)<br>
671                                Software: <a href="https://github.com/sempwn/ABCPRC">Github repository</a>
672                              </li>
673                              <li class="list-group-item">
674                                 <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.2253">Understanding heterogeneities in mosquito-bite exposure and infection distributions for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis</a>.<br>
675                                 <b>Irvine MA</b>, Kazura JW, Hollingsworth TD, and Reimer LJ
676                                 <i>Proc. Roy. Soc. B.</i> (2018)<br>
677                                 News coverage: <a href="http://www.lstmed.ac.uk/news-events/news/the-importance-of-heterogeneity-on-the-management-of-vector-borne-diseases">LSTM news</a>.
678                              </li>
679                              <li class="list-group-item">
680                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.006">Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework</a>.<br>
681                                Smith ME,  Singh BK, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Wilma A. Stolk,  Subramanian S, Hollingsworth TD,  Michael E.
682                                <i>Epidemics</i>. (2017)
683                              </li>
684                              <li class="list-group-item">
685                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30467-4">Effectiveness of a triple-drug regimen for global elimination of lymphatic filariasis: a modelling study</a>.<br>
686                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Stolk WA, Smith ME, Subramanian S, Singh BK, Weil GJ, Michael E, Hollingsworth TD. <i>The Lancet Infectious Diseases</i>. (2016)
687                                  <br> Outcomes:
688                                  <a href="http://www.who.int/lymphatic_filariasis/resources/9789241550161/en/">
689                                      World Health Organisation guidelines on
690                                      alternative mass drug administration
691                                      regimens to eliminate lymphatic filariasis.
692                                  </a>
693                              </li>
694                              <li class="list-group-item">
695                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trw024">Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection</a>.<br>
696    <b>Irvine MA</b>, Njenga SM, Gunawardena S, Wamae CN, Cano J, Brooker SJ, Hollingsworth TD.
697     <i>Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.</i>
698     <b>110</b>(2) pp. 118-24 (2016)
699                              </li>
700
701                              <li class="list-group-item">
702                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1152-3">Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis-aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination</a>.<br>
703    <b>Irvine MA</b>, Reimer LJ, Njenga SM, Gunawardena S, Kelly-Hope L, Bockarie M, Hollingsworth TD.
704     <i>Parasites &amp; vectors.</i>
705     <b>8</b>(1) pp. 1 (2015)
706                              </li>
707
708                              <li class="list-group-item">
709                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1">Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases</a>.<br>
710    Hollingsworth TD, Adams ER, Anderson RM, Atkins K, Bartsch S, Basáñez MG, Behrend M, Blok DJ, Chapman LA, Coffeng L, Courtenay O, <b>Irvine MA</b>,&hellip;, NTD Modelling Consortium.
711     <i>Parasites &amp; vectors.</i>
712     <b>8</b>(1) pp. 1 (2015)
713                              </li>
714                            </ul>
715                            <button type="button" class="btn btn-default" data-dismiss="modal"><i class="fa fa-times"></i> Close</button>
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731                <div class="row">
732                    <div class="col-lg-8 col-lg-offset-2">
733                        <div class="modal-body">
734                            <h2>Simulation</h2>
735                            <hr class="star-primary">
736                            <img src="img/portfolio/host_diagram_scaled.png" class="img-responsive img-centered" alt="">
737                            <p>
738                              Epidemiological and ecological systems may be complex, where multiple interactions need to be modelled explicitly.
739                              My research focuses on using an array of simulation and modelling methodologies in order to capture the salient details of the system in study.
740                            </p>
741                            <h3> Publications </h3>
742                            <ul class="list-group">
743                              <li class="list-group-item">
744                                <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.009">Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python</a>.<br>
745                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, and Hollingsworth TD
746                                <i>Epidemics</i> (2018)<br>
747                                Software: <a href="https://github.com/sempwn/ABCPRC">Github repository</a>
748                              </li>
749                              <li class="list-group-item">
750                                <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30044-6">Distribution of take-home opioid antagonist kits during a synthetic opioid epidemic in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study</a>.<br>
751                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, Buxton JA, Otterstatter M, Balshaw R, Gustafson R, Tyndall M, Kendall P, Kerr Thomas, Gilbert M, and Coombs D
752                                <i>The Lancet Public Health</i> (2018)<br>
753                                News coverage: <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1373929">CTV news</a>,
754                                <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/take-home-naloxone-program-bc-1.4625201?cmp=rss">CBC news</a>,
755                                <a href="http://vancouversun.com/health/local-health/making-naloxone-freely-available-reduced-fentanyl-overdose-deaths-in-b-c-study">Vancouver Sun</a>,
756                                <a href="http://www.radionl.com/2018/04/18/6754/">Radio NL</a>,
757                                <a href="http://www.theprovince.com/health/local-health/making+naloxone+freely+available+reduced+fentanyl/17305501/story.html">The Province</a>,
758                                <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?binId=1.1184759">CTV News</a>
759                              </li>
760                              <li class="list-group-item">
761                                <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2017.0849">A novel Bayesian approach to predicting reductions in HIV incidence following increased testing interventions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada</a>.<br>
762                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, Konrad BP, Balshaw R, Gilbert M, and Coombs D
763                                <i>Roy. Soc. Interface</i> (2018)<br>
764                                Blog post: <a href="https://medium.com/ubcscience/bayesian-analysis-sciences-best-attempt-at-fortune-telling-c862bdd290eb">Medium</a>.
765                              </li>
766                              <li class="list-group-item">
767                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.2253">Understanding heterogeneities in mosquito-bite exposure and infection distributions for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis</a>.<br>
768                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, Kazura JW, Hollingsworth TD, and Reimer LJ
769                                <i>Proc. Roy. Soc. B</i> (2018)<br>
770                                News coverage: <a href="http://www.lstmed.ac.uk/news-events/news/the-importance-of-heterogeneity-on-the-management-of-vector-borne-diseases">LSTM news</a>.
771                              </li>
772                              <li class="list-group-item">
773                                  <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17346-6">Conservation of pattern as a tool for inference on spatial snapshots in ecological data</a>.<br>
774                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Bull JC, Keeling MJ.
775                                  <i>Scientific Reports.</i> (2018)
776                              </li>
777                              <li class="list-group-item">
778                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.006">Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework</a>.<br>
779                                Smith ME,  Singh BK, <b>Irvine MA</b>, Wilma A. Stolk,  Subramanian S, Hollingsworth TD,  Michael E.
780                                <i>Epidemics</i>. (2017)
781                              </li>
782                              <li class="list-group-item">
783                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30467-4">Effectiveness of a triple-drug regimen for global elimination of lymphatic filariasis: a modelling study</a>.<br>
784                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Stolk WA, Smith ME, Subramanian S, Singh BK, Weil GJ, Michael E, Hollingsworth TD. <i>The Lancet Infectious Diseases</i>. (2016)
785                                  <br> Outcomes:
786                                  <a href="http://www.who.int/lymphatic_filariasis/resources/9789241550161/en/">
787                                      World Health Organisation guidelines on
788                                      alternative mass drug administration
789                                      regimens to eliminate lymphatic filariasis.
790                                  </a>
791
792                              </li>
793                              <li class="list-group-item">
794                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0463">Disease transmission promotes evolution of host spatial patterns</a>.<br>
795                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Bull JC, Keeling MJ. <i>J. R. Soc. Interface</i>. <b>13</b> 20160463 (2016)
796                              </li>
797                              <li class="list-group-item">
798                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trw024">Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection</a>.<br>
799    <b>Irvine MA</b>, Njenga SM, Gunawardena S, Wamae CN, Cano J, Brooker SJ, Hollingsworth TD.
800     <i>Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.</i>
801     <b>110</b>(2) pp. 118-24 (2016)
802                              </li>
803                              <li class="list-group-item">
804                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1152-3">Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis-aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination</a>.<br>
805    <b>Irvine MA</b>, Reimer LJ, Njenga SM, Gunawardena S, Kelly-Hope L, Bockarie M, Hollingsworth TD.
806     <i>Parasites &amp; vectors.</i>
807     <b>8</b>(1) pp. 1 (2015)
808                              </li>
809                              <li class="list-group-item">
810                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.150519">Fractal measures of spatial pattern as a heuristic for return rate in vegetative systems</a>.<br>
811                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Jackson EL, Kenyon EJ, Cook KJ, Keeling MJ, Bull JC. <i>Royal Society open science</i>. <b>3</b>(3), pp. 150519 (2016)
812                              </li>
813
814                            </ul>
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834                            <h2>Modelling of public health interventions</h2>
835                            <hr class="star-primary">
836                            <img src="img/portfolio/intervention.jpg" class="img-responsive img-centered" alt="">
837                            <p>
838                                Public health comprises many complex interacting components both in terms of a disease
839                                and its dynamics, as well as the public health system itself. Modelling of both an epidemic
840                                and the healthcare system provides insight into the effectiveness of an intervention and
841                                projected future outcomes.
842                            </p>
843                            <h3> Publications </h3>
844                            <ul class="list-group">
845                                <li class="list-group-item">
846                                  <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30044-6">Modelling the combined impact of interventions in averting deaths during a synthetic‐opioid overdose epidemic</a>.<br>
847                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Buxton JA, Otterstatter M, Balshaw R, Gustafson R, Tyndall M, Kendall P, Kerr Thomas, Gilbert M, and Coombs D
848                                  <i>Addiction</i> (2019)<br>
849                                  News coverage:<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-od-crisis-lives-saved-1.5163581">CBC news</a>,
850                                  <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-unsanctioned-overdose-prevention-site-opens-in-maple-ridge-renewing/">Globe and Mail</a>,
851                                  <a href="https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/rapid-response-to-b-c-s-overdose-crisis-saved-thousands-report-finds">National Post</a>,
852                                  <a href="https://www.straight.com/news/1252756/without-harm-reduction-overdoses-would-have-killed-thousands-more-bc-analysis-finds">Georgia Straight</a>
853                                </li>
854                                <li class="list-group-item">
855                                  <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30044-6">Distribution of take-home opioid antagonist kits during a synthetic opioid epidemic in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study</a>.<br>
856                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Buxton JA, Otterstatter M, Balshaw R, Gustafson R, Tyndall M, Kendall P, Kerr Thomas, Gilbert M, and Coombs D
857                                  <i>The Lancet Public Health</i> (2018)<br>
858                                  News coverage: <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1373929">CTV news</a>,
859                                  <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/take-home-naloxone-program-bc-1.4625201?cmp=rss">CBC news</a>,
860                                  <a href="http://vancouversun.com/health/local-health/making-naloxone-freely-available-reduced-fentanyl-overdose-deaths-in-b-c-study">Vancouver Sun</a>,
861                                  <a href="http://www.radionl.com/2018/04/18/6754/">Radio NL</a>,
862                                  <a href="http://www.theprovince.com/health/local-health/making+naloxone+freely+available+reduced+fentanyl/17305501/story.html">The Province</a>,
863                                  <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?binId=1.1184759">CTV News</a>
864                                </li>
865                                <li class="list-group-item">
866                                  <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2017.0849">A novel Bayesian approach to predicting reductions in HIV incidence following increased testing interventions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada</a>.<br>
867                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Konrad BP, Balshaw R, Gilbert M, and Coombs D
868                                  <i>Roy. Soc. Interface</i> (2018)<br>
869                                  Blog post: <a href="https://medium.com/ubcscience/bayesian-analysis-sciences-best-attempt-at-fortune-telling-c862bdd290eb">Medium</a>.
870                                </li>
871                                <li class="list-group-item">
872                                  <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.2253">Understanding heterogeneities in mosquito-bite exposure and infection distributions for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis</a>.<br>
873                                    <b>Irvine MA</b>, Kazura JW, Hollingsworth TD, and Reimer LJ
874                                  <i>Proc. Roy. Soc. B</i> (2018)<br>
875                                  News coverage: <a href="http://www.lstmed.ac.uk/news-events/news/the-importance-of-heterogeneity-on-the-management-of-vector-borne-diseases">LSTM news</a>.
876                                </li>
877                                <li class="list-group-item">
878                                  <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(17)30123-6">Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in primary care: a health economics modelling analysis</a>.<br>
879                                    Baggaley RF, <b>Irvine MA</b>
879, Leber W, Cambiano V, Figueroa J, McMullen H, Anderson J, Santos AC , Terris-Prestholt F, Miners A, Hollingsworth TD, and Griffiths CJ
880                                  <i>The Lancet HIV</i> (2017)<br>
881                                  News coverage: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/health-40756196">BBC news</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/07/30/hiv-tests-should-offered-everyone-high-risk-areas-enroll-new/">The Telegraph</a>,
882                                   <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jul/30/hiv-tests-for-gps-new-patients-could-save-lives-and-money-says-study">The Guardian</a>,
883                                   <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2142100/">New Scientist</a>, and
884                                   <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/call-to-make-family-doctors-test-all-patients-for-hiv-p5qq50qzq">The Times</a>.
885                                   <br>
886                                   Outcomes: <a href="https://ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/documents/HIV-hepatitis-B-and-C-testing-public-health-guidance.pdf">Public health guidance on HIV, hepatitis B and C testing in the EU/EEA</a>.
887                                </li>
888                                <li class="list-group-item">
889                                  <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30467-4">Effectiveness of a triple-drug regimen for global elimination of lymphatic filariasis: a modelling study</a>.<br>
890                                    <b>Irvine MA</b>, Stolk WA, Smith ME, Subramanian S, Singh BK, Weil GJ, Michael E, Hollingsworth TD. <i>The Lancet Infectious Diseases</i>. (2016)
891                                    <br> Outcomes:
892                                    <a href="http://www.who.int/lymphatic_filariasis/resources/9789241550161/en/">
893                                        World Health Organisation guidelines on
894                                        alternative mass drug administration
895                                        regimens to eliminate lymphatic filariasis.
896                                    </a>
897                                </li>
898                                <li class="list-group-item">
899                                  <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trw024">Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection</a>.<br>
900      <b>Irvine MA</b>, Njenga SM, Gunawardena S, Wamae CN, Cano J, Brooker SJ, Hollingsworth TD.
901       <i>Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.</i>
902       <b>110</b>(2) pp. 118-24 (2016)
903                                </li>
904                                <li class="list-group-item">
905                                  <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1152-3">Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis-aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination</a>.<br>
906      <b>Irvine MA</b>, Reimer LJ, Njenga SM, Gunawardena S, Kelly-Hope L, Bockarie M, Hollingsworth TD.
907       <i>Parasites &amp; vectors.</i>
908       <b>8</b>(1) pp. 1 (2015)
909                                </li>
910                            </ul>
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930                            <h2>Online Modelling Tools</h2>
931                            <hr class="star-primary">
932                            <img src="img/portfolio/GUI_scaled.png" class="img-responsive img-centered" alt="">
933                            <p>
934                              Modelling work can provide compelling evidence to policy-makers for the right decisions to make
935                              when faced with challenges such as the control of an epidemic. Modelling tools, where a non-modelling expert
936                              may enter certain scenarios and change some assumptions of the model allow users to interact directly with these tools
937                              and provide a way of delivering relevant analysis directly to those who need it most.
938                            </p>
939                            <h3> Projects </h3>
940                            <ul class="list-group">
941                              <li class="list-group-item">
942                                <p> Modelling a combination of interventions in the elimination of lymphatic filariasis.</p>
943                                <p><a href="https://sempwn.github.io/TRANSFIL2/">TRANSFIL</a></p>
944                              </li>
945                              <li class="list-group-item">
946                                <p> Tutorial for exploring a simple epidemic model.</p>
947                                <p><a href = "https://sempwn.github.io/epidemic">epidemic model</a></p>
948                              </li>
949                              <li class="list-group-item">
950                                <p>
951                                  Winning entry in <a href="http://news.fraserhealth.ca/News/January-2017/Fraser-Health-Hackathon-delivers-solutions-to-addr.aspx">Fraser Health Hackathon</a>. Dashboard for exploring analytics
952                                  in the number of emergency department visits in a given day for the Fraser Health Authority.
953                                </p>
954                                <p><a href="http://news.fraserhealth.ca/News/February-2017/Meet-the-Hackers-Team-Spurious-Correlations.aspx">Article</a></p>
955                                <p><a href="https://sempwn.github.io/spurious-correlations-ai/">Dashboard</a></p>
956                              </li>
957                              <li class="list-group-item">
958                                <p>
959                                  Introduction to modelling and outbreak simulation tool created for the Science World
960                                  <a href="http://bccdcfoundation.org/blog/blog/2017/09/20/bccdc-foundation-partners-with-science-world-to-bring-bccdc-expert
960s-to-zombie-outbreak-event/">After Dark: Zombie Outbreak</a>
961                                  2017 event in partnership with the <a href="http://bccdcfoundation.org/">BCCDC foundation</a>.
962                                </p>
963                                <p><a href="https://sempwn.github.io/zombie-game/">Zombie outbreak modelling</a></p>
964                              </li>
965                              <li class="list-group-item">
966                                <p>
967                                  Introduction to vaccine dynamics created for the Science World
968                                  <a href="https://bccdcfoundation.org/bccdc-foundation-bccdc-and-science-world-after-dark-october-fun-events/">After Dark Murder Mystery 2019</a>
969                                  event in partnership with the <a href="http://bccdcfoundation.org/">BCCDC foundation</a>.
970                                </p>
971                                <p><a href="https://sempwn.github.io/vaccine-dynamics/">Vaccine modelling</a></p>
972                              </li>
973
974                              <li class="list-group-item">
975                                <p>Modelling of naloxone use and need by state in the US. Resulting model based on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00304-2">The Lancet Public Health study</a></p>
976                                <p><a href="http://naloxoneneededtosave.org">How much naloxone is needed to save?</a></p>
977                              </li>
978                            </ul>
979                            <h3> Related Publications </h3>
980                            <ul class="list-group">
981                              <li class="list-group-item">
982                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005206"> Making transmission models accessible to end-users: the example of TRANSFIL</a>.<br>
983                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, Hollingsworth TD.  <i>PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases</i>. (2017)
984                              </li>
985                            </ul>
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1005                            <h2>Pattern Formation</h2>
1006                            <hr class="star-primary">
1007                            <img src="img/portfolio/pattern_formation_scaled.png" class="img-responsive img-centered" alt="">
1008                            <p>
1009                              Complex systems in ecology and epidemiology can often produce striking spatial patterns
1010                              from often simple underlying physical processes. These emergent behaviours can
1011                              have a number of fascinating implications on the dynamics and stability of
1012                              such systems. I have tried to understand the implications of
1013                              some of these phenomena through my research in spatial ecology.
1014                            </p>
1015                            <h3> Related Publications </h3>
1016                            <ul class="list-group">
1017                              <li class="list-group-item">
1018                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17346-6">Conservation of pattern as a tool for inference on spatial snapshots in ecological data</a>.<br>
1019                                <b>Irvine MA</b>, Bull JC, Keeling MJ.
1020                                <i>Scientific Reports.</i> (2018)
1021                              </li>
1022                              <li class="list-group-item">
1023                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0463">Disease transmission promotes evolution of host spatial patterns</a>.<br>
1024                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Bull JC, Keeling MJ. <i>J. R. Soc. Interface</i>. <b>13</b> 20160463 (2016)
1025                              </li>
1026                              <li class="list-group-item">
1027                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2015.12.001">Aggregation dynamics explain vegetation patch-size distributions</a>.<br>
1028                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Bull JC, Keeling MJ. <i>Theoretical population biology</i>. <b>108</b>(12), pp. 70-4 (2016)
1029                              </li>
1030                              <li class="list-group-item">
1031                                <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.150519">Fractal measures of spatial pattern as a heuristic for return rate in vegetative systems</a>.<br>
1032                                  <b>Irvine MA</b>, Jackson EL, Kenyon EJ, Cook KJ, Keeling MJ, Bull JC. <i>Royal Society open science</i>. <b>3</b>(3), pp. 150519 (2016)
1033                              </li>
1034                            </ul>
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