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234Open SDG Dashboard Tutorial</a></li> 235 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-4252"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/calculadora-fable/" class="elementor-sub-item">FABLE Calculator Tutorial (Spanish)</a></li> 236 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-4734"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/guide/" class="elementor-sub-item">A Guide to Regional Decarbonization</a></li> 237</ul> 238</li> 239</ul> </nav> 240 <div class="elementor-menu-toggle" role="button" tabindex="0" aria-label="Menu Toggle" aria-expanded="false"> 241 <i aria-hidden="true" role="presentation" class="elementor-menu-toggle__icon--open eicon-menu-bar"></i><i aria-hidden="true" role="presentation" class="elementor-menu-toggle__icon--close eicon-close"></i> <span class="elementor-screen-only">Menu</span> 242 </div> 243 <nav class="elementor-nav-menu--dropdown elementor-nav-menu__container" aria-hidden="true"> 244 <ul 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aria-current="page" class="elementor-sub-item elementor-item-active" tabindex="-1">Economic Impacts of Climate Change in CA</a></li> 249 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-6154"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/the-dire-platform-predicting-outbreaks-preparing-responses/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">The DIRE Platform: Predicting Outbreaks, Preparing Responses</a></li> 250 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-5912"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/evidence-for-local-climate-actions/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">Evidence for Local Climate Actions</a></li> 251 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-4525"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/regional-decarbonization-framework/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">San Diego Regional Decarbonization Framework</a></li> 252 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-2950"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/fable/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">FABLE</a></li> 253 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-2954"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/sdsn-usa/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">SDSN USA</a></li> 254 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-5645"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/baja-california-sdg/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">Baja California SDG Monitoring Dashboard</a></li> 255 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-has-children menu-item-5420"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/programs-4/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">Completed Projects</a> 256 <ul class="sub-menu elementor-nav-menu--dropdown"> 257 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-5966"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/paraguay-project/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">SDGs in Paraguay</a></li> 258 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-5418"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/zero-carbon-action-plan-2/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">Zero Carbon Action Plan</a></li> 259 </ul> 260</li> 261</ul> 262</li> 263<li class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-has-children menu-item-2380"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/programs/#sdg_gps" class="elementor-item elementor-item-anchor" tabindex="-1">SDGs@GPS</a> 264<ul class="sub-menu elementor-nav-menu--dropdown"> 265 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-3448"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/programs/#sdg_gps" class="elementor-sub-item elementor-item-anchor" tabindex="-1">Faculty Research</a></li> 266 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page 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class="elementor-item" tabindex="-1">Resources</a> 276<ul class="sub-menu elementor-nav-menu--dropdown"> 277 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-4248"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/open-sdg/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">
277Open SDG Dashboard Tutorial</a></li> 278 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-4252"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/calculadora-fable/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">FABLE Calculator Tutorial (Spanish)</a></li> 279 <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-4734"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/guide/" class="elementor-sub-item" tabindex="-1">A Guide to Regional Decarbonization</a></li> 280</ul> 281</li> 282</ul> </nav> 283 </div> 284 </div> 285 </div> 286 </div> 287 </div> 288 </section> 289 </div> 290 291</header><!-- #site-header --> 292 293 294 295 <main id="main" class="site-main clr" role="main"> 296 297 <div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="6232" class="elementor elementor-6232" data-elementor-post-type="post"> 298 <section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2660c82e elementor-section-height-min-height elementor-section-content-middle elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-items-middle" data-id="2660c82e" data-element_type="section" data-settings="{"background_background":"classic"}"> 299 <div class="elementor-background-overlay"></div> 300 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default"> 301 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-44b84561" data-id="44b84561" data-element_type="column"> 302 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 303 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-2a306f5c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="2a306f5c" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default"> 304 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 305 <h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default"><span data-path-to-node="2,1,1,0">Californiaâs Fifth Climate Change Assessment: Climate Impacts to the Economy</span></h2> </div> 306 </div> 307 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-cf8c748 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="cf8c748" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default"> 308 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 309 <h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default"><figure style="margin: 1.5em 0; padding: 0.5em 1em; border: none; color: ##9EDCE9;"> 310 <blockquote style="margin: 0; font-size: 20px; font-style: italic; color: #9EDCE9; border: none; padding-left: 0;"> 311- <span data-path-to-node="2,3,1,0"><span data-path-to-node="2,2,1,0"><span>Climate change is projected to continue imposing large and growing economic costs on California, with the largest monetized damages arising from premature mortality</span></span><span data-path-to-node="2,2,1,1"><span><source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c4160627711=""><sup _ngcontent-ng-c4160627711="" data-turn-source-index="3"><!----></sup></source-footnote><source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c4160627711=""><sup _ngcontent-ng-c4160627711="" data-turn-source-index="3"><!----></sup></source-footnote><source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c4160627711=""><sup _ngcontent-ng-c4160627711="" data-turn-source-index="3"><!----></sup></source-footnote><source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c4160627711=""><sup _ngcontent-ng-c4160627711="" data-turn-source-index="3"><!----></sup></source-footnote><source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c4160627711=""><sup _ngcontent-ng-c4160627711="" data-turn-source-index="3"><!----></sup></source-footnote><source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c4160627711=""><sup _ngcontent-ng-c4160627711="" data-turn-source-index="3"><!----></sup></source-footnote><source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c4160627711=""><sup _ngcontent-ng-c4160627711="" data-turn-source-index="3"><!----></sup></source-footnote><source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c4160627711=""><sup _ngcontent-ng-c4160627711="" data-turn-source-index="3"><!----></sup></source-footnote><source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c4160627711=""><sup _ngcontent-ng-c4160627711="" data-turn-source-index="3"><!----></sup></source-footnote></span></span><span data-path-to-node="2,2,1,2">.</span></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"> </span></blockquote></figure></h2> </div>
312 </div> 313 </div> 314 </div> 315 </div> 316 </section> 317 <section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6091760 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="6091760" data-element_type="section"> 318 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default"> 319 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d183e76" data-id="d183e76" data-element_type="column"> 320 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 321 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-7f62b5b elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider" data-id="7f62b5b" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="divider.default"> 322 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 323 <div class="elementor-divider"> 324 <span class="elementor-divider-separator"> 325 </span> 326 </div> 327 </div> 328 </div> 329 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-44e809f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="44e809f" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 330 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 331 <h1>Project overview</h1> </div> 332 </div> 333 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-49bf47f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="49bf47f" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 334 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 335 <p><span data-path-to-node="5,1">This report is a core component of <b data-path-to-node="5,1" data-index-in-node="35">Californiaâs Fifth Climate Change Assessment</b>, led by researchers at the <b data-path-to-node="5,1" data-index-in-node="107">
335UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy</b></span><span data-path-to-node="5,3">. </span><span data-path-to-node="5,5">It translates cutting-edge climate research into clear economic terms, helping state and local leaders understand the financial stakes of inaction and the critical need for cost-effective adaptation</span>.</p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This report examines the <strong>direct and indirect economic effects of climate change</strong> across key sectors of California’s economy, synthesizing evidence from peer-reviewed academic research, government agency reports, and analyses by private and nonprofit organizations. The analysis is organized into three interconnected systems that collectively encompass California’s economic landscape:</span></p><ul><li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Social Systems section focuses on human-centered economic activities, analyzing impacts on public health costs, labor productivity and workforce dynamics, educational infrastructure and outcomes, and government operations and fiscal capacity. </span></li><li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Built Systems section addresses critical infrastructure that underpins economic </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">activity, encompassing real estate markets and property insurance sectors responding to natural hazard risks, transportation networks, and water and energy systems. </span></li><li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Natural Systems section examines sectors heavily dependent on natural resources, including agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and tourism, industries that face direct exposure to changing temperature, precipitation, and fire patterns.</span></li></ul> </div> 336 </div> 337 </div> 338 </div> 339 </div> 340 </section> 341 <section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-d8b8951 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="d8b8951" data-element_type="section"> 342 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default"> 343 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7ad1e33" data-id="7ad1e33" data-element_type="column"> 344 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 345 <section class="elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-fd39577 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="fd39577" data-element_type="section"> 346 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default"> 347 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-2008163" data-id="2008163" data-element_type="column"> 348 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 349 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-6177dac elementor-widget elementor-widget-image" data-id="6177dac" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="image.default"> 350 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 351 <img decoding="async" width="256" height="81" src="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/5CCA.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-6251" alt="" /> </div> 352 </div> 353 </div> 354 </div> 355 </div> 356 </section> 357 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-67c5854 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider" data-id="67c5854" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="divider.default"> 358 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 359 <div class="elementor-divider"> 360 <span class="elementor-divider-separator"> 361 </span> 362 </div> 363 </div> 364 </div> 365 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-57a65fa elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="57a65fa" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 366 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 367 <h1>Key Findings</h1> </div>
368 </div> 369 <section class="elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-b44714b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="b44714b" data-element_type="section"> 370 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default"> 371 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-c61303e" data-id="c61303e" data-element_type="column"> 372 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 373 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-ad1a1e7 elementor-headline--style-rotate elementor-widget elementor-widget-animated-headline" data-id="ad1a1e7" data-element_type="widget" data-settings="{"headline_style":"rotate","animation_type":"swirl","loop":"yes","rotate_iteration_delay":2500}" data-widget_type="animated-headline.default"> 374 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 375 <h3 class="elementor-headline elementor-headline-animation-type-swirl elementor-headline-letters"> 376 <span class="elementor-headline-plain-text elementor-headline-text-wrapper">Massive Economic Toll</span> 377 <span class="elementor-headline-dynamic-wrapper elementor-headline-text-wrapper"> 378 </span> 379 </h3> 380 </div> 381 </div> 382 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-667f4e9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="667f4e9" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 383 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 384 <p><span data-path-to-node="9,1,0,0,1"><span class="citation-61 interactive-span-hovered">Historical events are already costing billions; for example, wildfires between 2017 and 2021 caused over </span><b data-path-to-node="9,1,0,0,1" data-index-in-node="105"><span class="citation-61 interactive-span-hovered">$117.4 billion</span></b><span class="citation-61 interactive-span-hovered"> in average annual economic losses.<sup>1</sup> </span></span></p> </div> 385 </div> 386 </div> 387 </div> 388 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-a3dfaa2" data-id="a3dfaa2" data-element_type="column"> 389 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 390 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-7e6ab54 elementor-headline--style-rotate elementor-widget elementor-widget-animated-headline" data-id="7e6ab54" data-element_type="widget" data-settings="{"headline_style":"rotate","animation_type":"swirl","loop":"yes","rotate_iteration_delay":2500}" data-widget_type="animated-headline.default"> 391 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 392 <h3 class="elementor-headline elementor-headline-animation-type-swirl elementor-headline-letters"> 393 <span class="elementor-headline-plain-text elementor-headline-text-wrapper">Uneven Regional Impacts</span> 394 <span class="elementor-headline-dynamic-wrapper elementor-headline-text-wrapper"> 395 </span> 396 </h3> 397 </div> 398 </div> 399 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-40c2f54 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="40c2f54" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 400 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 401 <p><span class="citation-60">By 2100, electricity costs for cooling in the Central Valley and Southern California could be </span><b data-path-to-node="9,1,1,0,1" data-index-in-node="94"><span class="citation-60">four times higher</span></b><span class="citation-60"> than in North Coast counties.<sup>2</sup></span></p> </div> 402 </div> 403 </div> 404 </div> 405 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-391bddb" data-id="391bddb" data-element_type="column"> 406 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 407 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-7dbfa6d elementor-headline--style-rotate elementor-widget elementor-widget-animated-headline" data-id="7dbfa6d" data-element_type="widget" data-settings="{"headline_style":"rotate","animation_type":"swirl","loop":"yes","rotate_iteration_delay":2500}" data-widget_type="animated-headline.default"> 408 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 409 <h3 class="elementor-headline elementor-headline-animation-type-swirl elementor-headline-letters"> 410 <span class="elementor-headline-plain-text elementor-headline-text-wrapper">The Mortality Burden</span> 411 <span class="elementor-headline-dynamic-wrapper elementor-headline-text-wrapper"> 412 </span> 413 </h3>
414 </div> 415 </div> 416 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-bcee714 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="bcee714" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 417 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 418 <p><span style="font-size: 15px;"><span class="citation-59">Excess mortality is projected to account for approximately </span><b data-path-to-node="9,1,2,0,1" data-index-in-node="59"><span class="citation-59">70% of all climate-related economic damages</span></b><span class="citation-59"> by the end of the century.<sup>3</sup></span></span></p> </div> 419 </div> 420 </div> 421 </div> 422 </div> 423 </section> 424 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-d98504c elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider" data-id="d98504c" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="divider.default"> 425 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 426 <div class="elementor-divider"> 427 <span class="elementor-divider-separator"> 428 </span> 429 </div> 430 </div> 431 </div> 432 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-12b8d4c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="12b8d4c" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 433 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 434 <h1 style="text-align: center;" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Climate Change is Already Imposing Significant Costs</h1><ul><li><span data-path-to-node="9,1,0,0,1"><span class="citation-61 interactive-span-hovered"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Seven major <strong>heat events</strong> between 2013 and 2022 resulted in <strong>$7.7 billion in damages.</strong></span></span></span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The 2020-2022 <strong>drought</strong> caused an estimated <strong>$3 billion in agricultural losses</strong> in 2022 alone.<sup>5</sup></span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">California currently faces <strong>$1.7 billion in annual flood damages</strong>, with approximately 230,000 residential properties statewide at substantial <strong>flood risk.<sup>6</sup></strong></span></li></ul> </div> 435 </div> 436 <section class="elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-11214fc elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="11214fc" data-element_type="section"> 437 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default"> 438 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-25 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-64dcdfc" data-id="64dcdfc" data-element_type="column"> 439 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 440 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-8d0ecbf elementor-widget elementor-widget-counter" data-id="8d0ecbf" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="counter.default"> 441 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 442 <div class="elementor-counter"> 443 <div class="elementor-counter-title">Heat Damages</div> <div class="elementor-counter-number-wrapper"> 444 <span class="elementor-counter-number-prefix">$</span> 445 <span class="elementor-counter-number" data-duration="2000" data-to-value="7.7" data-from-value="0" data-delimiter=",">0</span> 446 <span class="elementor-counter-number-suffix">B</span> 447 </div> 448 </div> 449 </div> 450 </div> 451 </div> 452 </div> 453 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-25 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-468615d" data-id="468615d" data-element_type="column"> 454 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 455 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-6733e4d elementor-widget elementor-widget-counter" data-id="6733e4d" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="counter.default"> 456 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 457 <div class="elementor-counter"> 458 <div class="elementor-counter-title">Wildfire Losses</div> <div class="elementor-counter-number-wrapper"> 459 <span class="elementor-counter-number-prefix">$</span> 460 <span class="elementor-counter-number" data-duration="2000" data-to-value="117.4" data-from-value="0" data-delimiter=",">0</span> 461 <span class="elementor-counter-number-suffix">B</span> 462 </div> 463 </div>
464 </div> 465 </div> 466 </div> 467 </div> 468 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-25 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-5f1594e" data-id="5f1594e" data-element_type="column"> 469 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 470 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-071de67 elementor-widget elementor-widget-counter" data-id="071de67" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="counter.default"> 471 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 472 <div class="elementor-counter"> 473 <div class="elementor-counter-title">Drought Impact</div> <div class="elementor-counter-number-wrapper"> 474 <span class="elementor-counter-number-prefix">$</span> 475 <span class="elementor-counter-number" data-duration="2000" data-to-value="3" data-from-value="0" data-delimiter=",">0</span> 476 <span class="elementor-counter-number-suffix">B</span> 477 </div> 478 </div> 479 </div> 480 </div> 481 </div> 482 </div> 483 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-25 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-3a4d1b7" data-id="3a4d1b7" data-element_type="column"> 484 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 485 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-0875f9a elementor-widget elementor-widget-counter" data-id="0875f9a" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="counter.default"> 486 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 487 <div class="elementor-counter"> 488 <div class="elementor-counter-title">Flood Risk</div> <div class="elementor-counter-number-wrapper"> 489 <span class="elementor-counter-number-prefix">$</span> 490 <span class="elementor-counter-number" data-duration="2000" data-to-value="1.7" data-from-value="0" data-delimiter=",">0</span> 491 <span class="elementor-counter-number-suffix">B</span> 492 </div> 493 </div> 494 </div> 495 </div> 496 </div> 497 </div> 498 </div> 499 </section> 500 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-21bdae8 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider" data-id="21bdae8" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="divider.default"> 501 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 502 <div class="elementor-divider"> 503 <span class="elementor-divider-separator"> 504 </span> 505 </div> 506 </div> 507 </div> 508 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-afd4093 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="afd4093" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 509 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 510 <h1 style="text-align: center;" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Selected Economic Damages</h1> </div> 511 </div> 512 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-7527804 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="7527804" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 513 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 514 <h3>Projected PerâCapita Economic Losses from Climate Change</h3><p><span data-path-to-node="6,3,1,0"><span style="font-weight: 400;">The following represent estimated California-specific per-capita impacts of climate change in 2100 under 3°F of warming. Note that these damages do not account for cross-sector interactions, do not quantify uncertainty, and do not include all sectors affected by climate change. Estimates are based on </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">the US Environmental Protection Agencyâs Framework for Evaluating Damage and Impacts (FrEDI)</span></span><span data-path-to-node="6,3,1,2">.</span></p><ul><li style="list-style-type: none;"><ul><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="5,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Mortality:</b> <span data-path-to-node="13,0,1,0"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mortality is the largest contributor to projected economic climate damages in California, with per capita losses from extreme heat alone estimated at </span><b>$725.7.<sup>1</sup> </b>Because economic valuations of mortality rely on the value of a statistical life (VSL), even relatively small changes in mortality risk can translate into large estimated economic damages when applied across large populations. VSL estimates are periodically updated to account for inflation, income growth, and evolving empirical evidence. The 2026 VSL, as estimated by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, is approximately <strong>$13.7 million.<sup>7</sup></strong></span></p></li><li><b>Air Quality:</b><span style="font-weight: 400;"> The <strong>$190.6 per capita damage</strong> estimate for air quality reflects the economic valuation of additional deaths caused by climate change-induced worsening of ozone and fine particulate matter, as both cause respiratory and cardiovascular disease and premature mortality.<sup>2</sup></span></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="5,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Wildfire:</b> <span style="font-weight: 400;">The <strong>$ 165.1-per-capita damage</strong> estimate for wildfires reflects economic losses from both <strong>property destruction</strong> and <strong>smoke-related</strong> impacts on earnings.<sup>2</sup></span></p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="5,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Labor:</b> <span data-path-to-node="13,2,1,0"><span style="font-weight: 400;">The <strong>$103.3 per-capita labor damages</strong> reflect projected losses from heat-driven reductions in <strong>time worked</strong> and <strong>wages</strong> among heat-exposed occupations.<sup>2</sup></span></span></p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="5,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Agriculture: <span style="font-weight: 400;">The </span></b><strong>$150.1 per-capita </strong><span data-path-to-node="5,2,0" data-index-in-node="0"><b>agricultural damage </b>reflects projected losses from reduced yields of major staple crops (cotton, maize, soybeans, wheat) under warming.<sup>2</sup> However, because Californiaâs agricultural economy is dominated by higher-value specialty crops, this figure likely understates total climate-related agricultural losses.</span></p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,2,0"><span data-path-to-node="5,2,0" data-index-in-node="0"><b>Energy: </b><span style="font-weight: 400;">While milder winters may </span>reduce natural gas heating costs by $66.1 per capita, increased cooling demand may raise electricity costs <b>by $35.4 per capita.<sup>2</sup></b></span></p></li></ul></li></ul><p><span data-path-to-node="6,3,1,2"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bar chart showing per-capita damages by 2100 to show the scale of impact across different sectors</span> under <span style="font-family: Poppins, 'sans serif'; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;">a 3°F </span>temperature rise.</span></p> </div>
515 </div> 516 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-e798674 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image" data-id="e798674" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="image.default"> 517 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 518 <figure class="wp-caption"> 519 <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1536" height="660" src="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/FREDI_Panel_simplified-1536x660.png" class="attachment-1536x1536 size-1536x1536 wp-image-6228" alt="" srcset="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/FREDI_Panel_simplified-1536x660.png 1536w, https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/FREDI_Panel_simplified-300x129.png 300w, https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/FREDI_Panel_simplified-1024x440.png 1024w, https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/FREDI_Panel_simplified-768x330.png 768w, https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/FREDI_Panel_simplified-2048x880.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px" /> <figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text"></figcaption> 520 </figure> 521 </div> 522 </div> 523 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-7f920c2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="7f920c2" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 524 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 525 <h6><span data-path-to-node="6,3,1,2"><span style="font-weight: 400;">The damage functions were derived from both FrEDI and the <a href="https://toolkit.climate.gov/NCA5">Fifth National Climate Assessment</a>, Chapter 19</span>.</span></h6> </div> 526 </div> 527 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-a269947 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider" data-id="a269947" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="divider.default"> 528 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 529 <div class="elementor-divider"> 530 <span class="elementor-divider-separator"> 531 </span> 532 </div> 533 </div> 534 </div> 535 <section class="elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-be90dc8 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="be90dc8" data-element_type="section"> 536 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-wide"> 537 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-7fa96de" data-id="7fa96de" data-element_type="column"> 538 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 539 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-9e274e8 elementor-view-default elementor-position-top elementor-mobile-position-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-box" data-id="9e274e8" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="icon-box.default"> 540 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 541 <div class="elementor-icon-box-wrapper"> 542 543 <div class="elementor-icon-box-icon"> 544 <span class="elementor-icon elementor-animation-"> 545 <i aria-hidden="true" class="fas fa-skull"></i> </span> 546 </div> 547 548 <div class="elementor-icon-box-content"> 549 550 <h3 class="elementor-icon-box-title"> 551 <span > 552 Mortality </span> 553 </h3> 554 555 <p class="elementor-icon-box-description"> 556 $725.7 per capita </p> 557 558 </div> 559 560 </div> 561 </div> 562 </div> 563 </div> 564 </div> 565 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-988202a" data-id="988202a" data-element_type="column"> 566 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 567 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-4176eac elementor-view-default elementor-position-top elementor-mobile-position-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-box" data-id="4176eac" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="icon-box.default"> 568 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 569 <div class="elementor-icon-box-wrapper"> 570 571 <div class="elementor-icon-box-icon"> 572 <span class="elementor-icon elementor-animation-"> 573 <i aria-hidden="true" class="fas fa-fire"></i> </span> 574 </div> 575 576 <div class="elementor-icon-box-content"> 577 578 <h3 class="elementor-icon-box-title"> 579 <span > 580 Wildfire </span> 581 </h3> 582 583 <p class="elementor-icon-box-description"> 584 $165.1 per capita </p> 585 586 </div> 587 588 </div>
589 </div> 590 </div> 591 </div> 592 </div> 593 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-b10a97b" data-id="b10a97b" data-element_type="column"> 594 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 595 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-ccf679c elementor-view-default elementor-position-top elementor-mobile-position-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-box" data-id="ccf679c" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="icon-box.default"> 596 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 597 <div class="elementor-icon-box-wrapper"> 598 599 <div class="elementor-icon-box-icon"> 600 <span class="elementor-icon elementor-animation-"> 601 <i aria-hidden="true" class="fas fa-briefcase"></i> </span> 602 </div> 603 604 <div class="elementor-icon-box-content"> 605 606 <h3 class="elementor-icon-box-title"> 607 <span > 608 Labor </span> 609 </h3> 610 611 <p class="elementor-icon-box-description"> 612 $103.3 per capita </p> 613 614 </div> 615 616 </div> 617 </div> 618 </div> 619 </div> 620 </div> 621 </div> 622 </section> 623 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-2c00cfa elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider" data-id="2c00cfa" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="divider.default"> 624 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 625 <div class="elementor-divider"> 626 <span class="elementor-divider-separator"> 627 </span> 628 </div> 629 </div> 630 </div> 631 <section class="elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-186de94 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="186de94" data-element_type="section"> 632 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default"> 633 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-d73f9e4" data-id="d73f9e4" data-element_type="column"> 634 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 635 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-80be78b elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="80be78b" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 636 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 637 <h3 style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-style: normal;">Implications for Households & Government</h3><ul style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-family: Poppins, 'sans serif'; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; color: #000000;"><li style="font-size: 15px; list-style-type: none;"><ul style="font-size: 15px;"><li style="font-size: 15px;"><p style="font-size: 15px;" data-path-to-node="5,0,0"><span style="font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;" data-path-to-node="5,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Property & Insurance:</span> <span style="font-size: 15px;" data-path-to-node="13,0,1,0"><span class="citation-57" style="font-size: 15px;"><span data-path-to-node="16,0,1,0"><span class="citation-52">By 2050, sea-level rise could cause nearly </span><b data-path-to-node="16,0,1,0" data-index-in-node="65"><span class="citation-52">$17.9 billion</span></b><span class="citation-52"> in damages to residential and commercial buildings.<sup>9</sup></span></span></span></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 15px;"><p style="font-size: 15px;" data-path-to-node="5,1,0"><span style="font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;" data-path-to-node="5,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Insurance Transformation:</span> <span style="font-size: 15px;" data-path-to-node="13,1,1,0"><span class="citation-56" style="font-size: 15px;"><span data-path-to-node="16,1,1,0"><span class="citation-51">The California FAIR Planâs exposure soared to </span><b data-path-to-node="16,1,1,0" data-index-in-node="64"><span class="citation-51">$724 billion</span></b><span class="citation-51"> as of December 2025, a massive increase from $50 billion in 2018.<sup>10</sup></span></span></span></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 15px;"><p style="font-size: 15px;" data-path-to-node="5,2,0"><span style="font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;" data-path-to-node="5,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">State Budgets:</span> <span style="font-size: 15px;" data-path-to-node="13,2,1,0"><span class="citation-55 interactive-span-hovered" style="font-size: 15px;"><span data-path-to-node="16,2,1,0"><span class="citation-50 interactive-span-hovered">Wildfire protection spending has nearly quadrupled since 2005, reaching </span><b data-path-to-node="16,2,1,0" data-index-in-node="87"><span class="citation-50 interactive-span-hovered">$2.9 billion</span></b><span class="citation-50 interactive-span-hovered"> in recent fiscal years.<sup>11</sup></span></span></span></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 15px;"><p style="font-size: 15px;" data-path-to-node="5,2,0"><span style="font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;" data-path-to-node="5,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Food Security:Â </span><span style="font-size: 15px;" data-path-to-node="13,2,1,0"><span class="citation-55 interactive-span-hovered" style="font-size: 15px;"><span data-path-to-node="16,3,1,0"><span class="citation-49">Climate change is expected to increase national food price inflation by </span><b data-path-to-node="16,3,1,0" data-index-in-node="87"><span class="citation-49">1.5â2 percentage points</span></b><span class="citation-49"> annually by 2035.<sup>12</sup></span></span></span></span></p></li></ul></li></ul> </div>
638 </div> 639 </div> 640 </div> 641 </div> 642 </section> 643 </div> 644 </div> 645 </div> 646 </section> 647 <section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4b85b69 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="4b85b69" data-element_type="section"> 648 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default"> 649 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-68eef44" data-id="68eef44" data-element_type="column"> 650 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 651 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-788e16f elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider" data-id="788e16f" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="divider.default"> 652 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 653 <div class="elementor-divider"> 654 <span class="elementor-divider-separator"> 655 </span> 656 </div> 657 </div> 658 </div> 659 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-7c73f04 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="7c73f04" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default"> 660 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 661 <h3 style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-style: normal;">Authorship & Timeline</h3><ul><li><b data-path-to-node="12,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Lead Authors:</b> <span data-path-to-node="19,0,1,0"><span class="citation-48"><a href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/gmccord/">Gordon McCord</a> & <a href="https://gps.ucsd.edu/faculty-directory/teevrat-garg.html">Teevrat Garg</a></span></span><span data-path-to-node="19,0,1,2">.</span></li><li><b data-path-to-node="12,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Project Management:Â </b> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mckenna-maxwell/"><span data-path-to-node="19,1,1,0"><span class="citation-47 interactive-span-hovered">McKenna Maxwell</span></span></a>.</li><li><b data-path-to-node="12,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Official Release: </b><span class="citation-46">The <a href="https://lci.ca.gov/climate/icarp/climate-assessment/"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">full report</span></a> is expected in </span><strong><span class="citation-46">September 2026</span></strong><span class="citation-46"> as part of the statewide assessment portfolio.</span></li></ul><p>Â </p> </div> 662 </div> 663 </div> 664 </div> 665 </div> 666 </section> 667 <section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-fa903d6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="fa903d6" data-element_type="section"> 668 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default"> 669 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-93d178c" data-id="93d178c" data-element_type="column"> 670 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 671 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-a9ad2cf elementor-widget elementor-widget-accordion" data-id="a9ad2cf" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="accordion.default"> 672 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 673 <div class="elementor-accordion"> 674 <div class="elementor-accordion-item"> 675 <div id="elementor-tab-title-1771" class="elementor-tab-title" data-tab="1" role="button" aria-controls="elementor-tab-content-1771" aria-expanded="false"> 676 <span class="elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-left" aria-hidden="true"> 677 <span class="elementor-accordion-icon-closed"><i class="fas fa-plus"></i></span> 678 <span class="elementor-accordion-icon-opened"><i class="fas fa-minus"></i></span> 679 </span> 680 <a class="elementor-accordion-title" tabindex="0">References & Technical Documentation</a> 681 </div> 682 <div id="elementor-tab-content-1771" class="elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix" data-tab="1" role="region" aria-labelledby="elementor-tab-title-1771"><ol><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">
682Paci, et al. (2023). The Economic, Fiscal, and Environmental Costs of Wildfires in California. Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation.</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. EPA (2023). Technical Documentation for the Framework for Evaluating Damages and Impacts (FrEDI).</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Heutel, et al. (2021). Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions. The Review of Economics & Statistics.</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Munich Reinsurance Company (2025). Natural disaster figures for the first half of 2025.</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">MedellÃn-Azuara et al. (2022). Economic Impacts of the 2020â22 Drought on California Agriculture. UC Merced.</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">First Street Foundation (2021). The Cost of Climate: Americaâs growing flood risk.</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">HHS. (2025). HHS Standard Values for Regulatory Analysis, 2025. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation.</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Hsiang et al. (2023). Fifth National Climate Assessment (Chapter 19: Economy). U.S. Global Change Research. Program.</span><a href="https://toolkit.climate.gov/NCA5"><span style="font-weight: 400;"> https://toolkit.climate.gov/NCA5</span></a></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Public Policy Institute of California (2024). Sea level rise in California.</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">California FAIR Plan Association. (2026) Key statistics & data.</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Morales, et al. (2022). Climate Change Impacts Across California: Housing. Californiaâs Legislative Analystâs Office.</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Kotz, et al. (2024). Global warming and heat extremes increase food price inflation. Nature Climate Change.</span></p></li></ol></div> 683 </div> 684 </div> 685 </div> 686 </div> 687 </div> 688 </div> 689 </div> 690 </section> 691 <section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2e960ed elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="2e960ed" data-element_type="section"> 692 <div class="elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default"> 693 <div class="elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-10fd30a" data-id="10fd30a" data-element_type="column"> 694 <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> 695 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-139fda5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="139fda5" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default"> 696 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 697 <h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-large">Related Student Blog Posts</h2> </div> 698 </div> 699 <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-69b30ac elementor-grid-3 elementor-grid-tablet-2 elementor-grid-mobile-1 elementor-posts--thumbnail-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-posts" data-id="69b30ac" data-element_type="widget" data-settings="{"classic_columns":"3","classic_columns_tablet":"2","classic_columns_mobile":"1","classic_row_gap":{"unit":"px","size":35,"sizes":[]},"classic_row_gap_tablet":{"unit":"px","size":"","sizes":[]},"classic_row_gap_mobile":{"unit":"px","size":"","sizes":[]}}" data-widget_type="posts.classic"> 700 <div class="elementor-widget-container"> 701 <div class="elementor-posts-container elementor-posts elementor-posts--skin-classic elementor-grid"> 702 <article class="elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-6202 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-student-blog entry has-media"> 703 <a class="elementor-post__thumbnail__link" href="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/climate-change-is-reshaping-californias-economy-a-uc-san-diego-students-role-in-californias-fifth-climate-change-assessment/" tabindex="-1" target="_blank"> 704 <div class="elementor-post__thumbnail"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="300" height="289" src="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/KG_Jan_storm_north_7102-scaled-e1773938031644-300x289.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-6208" alt="" srcset="https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/KG_Jan_storm_north_7102-scaled-e1773938031644-300x289.jpg 300w, https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/KG_Jan_storm_north_7102-scaled-e1773938031644-1024x986.jpg 1024w, https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/KG_Jan_storm_north_7102-scaled-e1773938031644-768x740.jpg 768w, https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/KG_Jan_storm_north_7102-scaled-e1773938031644-1536x1480.jpg 1536w, https://sdgpolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/KG_Jan_storm_north_7102-scaled-e1773938031644.jpg 1692w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100v
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