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1</head><body class="__variable_246ccd __variable_c29908 __variable_f339d8 antialiased overflow-x-hidden max-w-[100vw]"><div hidden=""><!--$--><!--/$--></div><main class="min-h-screen bg-black text-white px-4 py-14 overflow-x-hidden"><div class="max-w-5xl mx-auto"><header class="mb-10 text-center"><p class="text-xs uppercase tracking-[0.25em] text-cyan-300 mb-3">FutureFast</p><h1 class="font-orbitron text-3xl md:text-5xl font-bold mb-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-[#99731A] via-[#D4AF37] to-[#99731A] bg-clip-text text-transparent">The Speed of Change Index</h1><p class="text-base md:text-lg text-cyan-100/90 max-w-3xl mx-auto">Is technology getting faster? Each Monday this index measures how quickly computing, AI, energy, genomics and space launch are improving, and whether that pace is speeding up or slowing down. Every week is kept permanently, so the record can be read across months or years.</p><p class="mt-3 text-sm text-gray-400">Week of <!-- -->2026-09-28<!-- --> · method <!-- -->v1<!-- --> · <a href="#methodology" class="underline hover:text-white">how it is measured</a></p></header><section aria-labelledby="soc-summary" class="mb-12"><h2 id="soc-summary" class="sr-only">This week at a glance</h2><div class="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-3"><div class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.04] p-4"><div class="text-3xl font-bold text-emerald-300">2</div><div class="text-xs text-gray-400 mt-1">trend lines accelerating</div></div><div class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.04] p-4"><div class="text-3xl font-bold text-amber-300">3</div><div class="text-xs text-gray-400 mt-1">trend lines slowing</div></div><div class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.04] p-4"><div class="text-3xl font-bold text-gray-200">2</div><div class="text-xs text-gray-400 mt-1">steady or too new to call</div></div><div class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.04] p-4"><div class="text-3xl font-bold text-[#D4AF37]">12</div><div class="text-xs text-gray-400 mt-1">verified case studies this week</div></div></div></section><nav aria-label="Time range" class="mb-8 flex flex-wrap gap-2 justify-center"><a class="min-h-[40px] inline-flex items-center px-4 rounded-full text-sm border border-white/15 text-gray-300 hover:text-white" href="/speed-of-change?range=3m">3 months</a><a class="min-h-[40px] inline-flex items-center px-4 rounded-full text-sm border border-white/15 text-gray-300 hover:text-white" href="/speed-of-change?range=1y">1 year</a><a class="min-h-[40px] inline-flex items-center px-4 rounded-full text-sm border border-[#D4AF37] text-[#D4AF37] bg-[#D4AF37]/10" aria-current="true" href="/speed-of-change?range=5y">5 years</a><a class="min-h-[40px] inline-flex items-center px-4 rounded-full text-sm border border-white/15 text-gray-300 hover:text-white" href="/speed-of-change?range=20y">20 years</a><a class="min-h-[40px] inline-flex items-center px-4 rounded-full text-sm border border-white/15 text-gray-300 hover:text-white" href="/speed-of-change?range=all">All history</a></nav><section aria-labelledby="soc-timeline" class="mb-14"><h2 id="soc-timeline" class="font-orbitron text-xl md:text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-2">The weekly record</h2><p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">One point per Monday since the index began on <!-- -->2026-09-28<!-- -->. The line shows how many tracked trend lines were accelerating that week. It never resets and nothing is ever revised; a change of method starts a new, labeled version.</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 rounded-lg border border-white/10 p-4">The record starts with this week. Each Monday adds a point here.</p></section><section aria-labelledby="soc-trends" class="mb-14"><h2 id="soc-trends" class="font-orbitron text-xl md:text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-2">Measured trend lines</h2><p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-6">Each line is measured data from a named source, not news coverage. Doubling time is how many months it takes a measure to double (or a price to halve). A shorter doubling time than in the window before means the pace is accelerating.</p><div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-5"><article class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-5 min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-2 mb-2"><h3 class="text-base font-semibold text-white">
1AI capability (Epoch Capabilities Index)</h3><span class="text-xs px-2.5 py-1 rounded-full border text-emerald-300 border-emerald-400/40 bg-emerald-400/10">Accelerating</span></div><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-2">Epoch AI&#x27;s Capabilities Index combines results from dozens of benchmarks into one score per model. Higher means more capable. The index tracks the best score reached so far (the frontier).</p><p class="text-sm text-cyan-100 mb-3">The frontier is rising 14.7 ECI points a year, compared with 10.7 a year in the window before.</p><svg viewBox="0 0 420 230" role="img" aria-label="AI capability (Epoch Capabilities Index) over time" class="w-full h-auto"><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="202" y2="202" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="206" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">110</text></g><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="137.33333333333331" y2="137.33333333333331" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="141.33333333333331" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">129</text></g><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="72.6666666666667" y2="72.6666666666667" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="76.6666666666667" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">148</text></g><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="8" y2="8" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="12" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">167</text></g><text x="74.77442898616273" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2022</text><text x="214.94525034274315" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2024</text><text x="355.3080865230997" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2026</text><path d="M155.2,202.0 L158.7,148.7 L219.6,146.7 L226.3,145.3 L234.0,144.1 L240.5,138.3 L247.8,134.8 L263.9,118.5 L263.9,115.0 L282.3,94.4 L302.3,86.7 L305.4,81.7 L305.4,77.5 L315.9,75.6 L327.1,66.9 L338.8,66.0 L346.9,56.9 L351.3,55.0 L351.3,48.5 L362.0,43.7 L367.4,35.9 L376.8,35.6 L376.8,24.9 L394.5,23.0 L402.0,16.6 L402.4,10.9 L406.0,8.0" fill="none" stroke="#22d3ee" stroke-width="2"></path><circle cx="155.22864014836438" cy="202" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2023-02-24: 110</title></circle><circle cx="158.68490697633484" cy="148.7144856543037" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2023-03-14: 126</title></circle><circle cx="219.55360611337045" cy="146.74597620713786" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2024-01-25: 126</title></circle><circle cx="226.27412494553525" cy="145.25262421273618" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2024-02-29: 127</title></circle><circle cx="233.95471789658075" cy="144.0986703988803" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2024-04-09: 127</title></circle><circle cx="240.48322190496944" cy="138.26102169349193" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>
12024-05-13: 129</title></circle><circle cx="247.77978520846267" cy="134.76522043386984" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2024-06-20: 130</title></circle><circle cx="263.9090304056582" cy="118.54198740377885" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2024-09-12: 135</title></circle><circle cx="263.9090304056582" cy="115.01224632610219" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2024-09-12: 136</title></circle><circle cx="282.3424534881674" cy="94.3768369489153" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2024-12-17: 142</title></circle><circle cx="302.3119951608857" cy="86.74037788663396" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-03-31: 144</title></circle><circle cx="305.3842323413039" cy="81.71728481455564" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-04-16: 146</title></circle><circle cx="305.3842323413039" cy="77.54268719384179" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-04-16: 147</title></circle><circle cx="315.9450476489915" cy="75.60811756473053" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-06-10: 147</title></circle><circle cx="327.08190742800747" cy="66.88558432470259" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-08-07: 150</title></circle><circle cx="338.79481167835183" cy="66.00314905528342" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-10-07: 150</title></circle><circle cx="346.8594342769496" cy="56.87333799860044" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-11-18: 153</title></circle><circle cx="351.2757752238008" cy="55.04058782365285" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-12-11: 153</title></circle><circle cx="351.2757752238008" cy="48.52414275717285" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-12-11: 155</title></circle><circle cx="362.0286053552645" cy="43.73862841147656" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2026-02-05: 157</title></circle><circle cx="367.4050204209963" cy="35.9324702589223" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2026-03-05: 159</title></circle><circle cx="376.8137467860271" cy="35.59307207837647" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2026-04-23: 159</title></circle><circle cx="376.8137467860271" cy="24.868089573128064" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2026-04-23: 162</title></circle><circle cx="394.47911057343174" cy="22.967459762071357" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2026-07-24: 163</title></circle><circle cx="401.9676887007011" cy="16.58677396780967" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2026-09-01: 165</title></circle><circle cx="402.35171834825337" cy="10.850944716585026" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2026-09-03: 167</title></circle><circle cx="406" cy="8" r="3.5" fill="#D4AF37"><title>2026-09-22: 167</title></circle></svg><div class="mt-3"><div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2 text-center"><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">1 month</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">+1% better</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">6 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">+5% better</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">12 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">+12% better</div></div></div></div><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-3">Latest: 167 ECI points (Claude Opus 5.5), <!-- -->data through <!-- -->2026-09-22<!-- -->. Source:<!-- --> <a href="https://epoch.ai/benchmarks" class="underline hover:text-gray-300" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Epoch AI, Capabilities &amp; benchmarking</a>. License: <!-- -->CC BY 4.0 (Epoch AI)<!-- -->.</p></article><article class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-5 min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-2 mb-2"><h3 class="text-base font-semibold text-white">Length of task AI can complete (METR time horizon)</h3><span class="text-xs px-2.5 py-1 rounded-full border text-emerald-300 border-emerald-400/40 bg-emerald-400/10">Accelerating<!-- --> (clear)</span></div><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-2">How long a software task (measured in the time a skilled human needs) an AI model completes with 50% success. Measured by METR, a nonprofit AI evaluation lab.</p><p class="text-sm text-cyan-100 mb-3">At the current pace it doubles every 3.5 months, compared with every 7.1 months in the window before.</p><p class="text-xs text-gray-400 rounded-lg border border-white/10 p-3">Raw values are not shown: the source has not yet granted permission to republish its data. The rates above are our own calculation from its published results.</p><div class="mt-3"><div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2 text-center"><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">1 month</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">6 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">+45% better</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">12 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">+415% better</div></div></div></div><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-3">data through <!-- -->2026-04-07<!-- -->. Source:<!-- --> <a href="https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/" class="underline hover:text-gray-300" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">METR, via Epoch AI benchmarking hub</a>. License: <!-- -->
1No published license (METR). Internal computation only; cited derived figures; permission requested.<!-- -->.</p></article><article class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-5 min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-2 mb-2"><h3 class="text-base font-semibold text-white">Compute used to train notable AI models</h3><span class="text-xs px-2.5 py-1 rounded-full border text-amber-300 border-amber-400/40 bg-amber-400/10">Slowing</span></div><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-2">Total computing operations (FLOP, floating-point operations) used to train each notable AI model. The index tracks the largest training run so far.</p><p class="text-sm text-cyan-100 mb-3">At the current pace it doubles every 7.7 months, compared with every 4.1 months in the window before.</p><svg viewBox="0 0 420 230" role="img" aria-label="Compute used to train notable AI models over time" class="w-full h-auto"><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="157.8819310455615" y2="157.8819310455615" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="161.8819310455615" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">1.0 × 10²⁵</text></g><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="82.94259272847731" y2="82.94259272847731" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="86.94259272847731" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">1.0 × 10²⁶</text></g><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="8.00325441139312" y2="8.00325441139312" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="12.00325441139312" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">1.0 × 10²⁷</text></g><text x="74.95214798167781" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2022</text><text x="216.6080283881111" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2024</text><text x="358.45795794578606" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2026</text><path d="M89.1,202.0 L109.7,200.0 L159.9,133.7 L211.6,105.5 L296.8,42.2 L298.7,39.5 L324.3,30.6 L406.0,8.0" fill="none" stroke="#22d3ee" stroke-width="2"></path><circle cx="89.11773602232114" cy="202" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2022-03-15: 2.6 × 10²⁴</title></circle><circle cx="109.68694605394023" cy="199.99871970053877" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2022-06-29: 2.7 × 10²⁴</title></circle><circle cx="159.9456762255378" cy="133.73503030520402" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2023-03-15: 2.1 × 10²⁵</title></circle><circle cx="211.56275045582717" cy="105.50158141647982" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2023-12-06: 5.0 × 10²⁵</title></circle><circle cx="296.75032785092884" cy="42.17049348539763" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-02-17: 3.5 × 10²⁶</title></circle><circle cx="298.6908193633457" cy="39.49399363091432" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-02-27: 3.8 × 10²⁶</title></circle><circle cx="324.3053073272488" cy="30.56224310004606" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2025-07-09: 5.0 × 10²⁶</title></circle><circle cx="406" cy="8" r="3.5" fill="#D4AF37"><title>2026-09-03: 1.0 × 10²⁷</title></circle></svg><div class="mt-3"><div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2 text-center"><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">1 month</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">6 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">+100% better</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">12 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">+100% better</div></div></div></div><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-3">Latest: 1.0 × 10²⁷ FLOP (GPT-6 Astra), <!-- -->data through <!-- -->2026-09-03<!-- -->. Source:<!-- --> <a href="https://epoch.ai/data/ai-models" class="underline hover:text-gray-300" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Epoch AI, Notable AI Models</a>. License: <!-- -->CC BY 4.0 (Epoch AI)<!-- -->.</p></article><article class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-5 min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-2 mb-2"><h3 class="text-base font-semibold text-white">Price of lithium-ion battery packs</h3><span class="text-xs px-2.5 py-1 rounded-full border text-gray-400 border-white/10 bg-white/5">Not enough data yet</span></div><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-2">Volume-weighted average price of a lithium-ion battery pack per kilowatt-hour, from BloombergNEF&#x27;s annual survey. Each figure is the headline from that year&#x27;s press release.</p><p class="text-sm text-cyan-100 mb-3">At the current pace it halves every 5.5 years.</p><svg viewBox="0 0 420 230" role="img" aria-label="Price of lithium-ion battery packs over time" class="w-full h-auto"><text x="80.28246483062244" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2022</text><text x="173.3810555407421" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2023</text><text x="266.4796462508618" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2024</text><text x="359.83330159306394" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2025</text><path d="M219.5,8.0 L312.9,153.7 L406.0,202.0" fill="none" stroke="#22d3ee" stroke-width="2"></path><circle cx="219.54775394767816" cy="8" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2023-07-01: 139</title></circle><circle cx="312.90140928988035" cy="153.7189340116713" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2024-07-01: 115</title></circle><circle cx="406" cy="202" r="3.5" fill="#D4AF37"><title>2025-07-01: 108</title></circle></svg><div class="mt-3"><div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2 text-center"><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">1 month</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">6 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">12 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div></div></div><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-3">Latest: 108 US$ per kWh (as published each year), <!-- -->data through <!-- -->2025-07-01<!-- --> (this source updates slowly)<!-- -->. Source:<!-- --> <a href="https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-fall-to-108-per-kilowatt-hour" class="underline hover:text-gray-300" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">BloombergNEF annual Battery Price Survey (press releases)</a>. License: <!-- -->Cited public headline figures (BloombergNEF press releases)<!-- -->.</p></article><article class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-5 min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-2 mb-2"><h3 class="text-base font-semibold text-white">Cost to sequence a human genome</h3><span class="text-xs px-2.5 py-1 rounded-full border text-amber-300 border-amber-400/40 bg-amber-400/10">Slowing<!-- --> (clear)</span></div><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-2">Cost of sequencing one full human genome, as tracked by the US National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI).</p><p class="text-sm text-cyan-100 mb-3">At the current pace it halves every 2.6 years, compared with every 7.4 months in the window before.</p><p class="text-xs text-amber-200/80 mb-1">No data in the selected range for this source; showing its full history.</p><svg viewBox="0 0 420 230" role="img" aria-label="Cost to sequence a human genome over time" class="w-full h-auto"><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="189.5001644338302" y2="189.5001644338302" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="193.5001644338302" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">1,000</text></g><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="116.59278784479896" y2="116.59278784479896" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="120.59278784479896" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">100,000</text></g><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="43.685411255767676" y2="43.685411255767676" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="47.685411255767676" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">10.0 million</text></g><text x="198.92411994784877" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2010</text><text x="364.62112125162975" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2020</text><path d="M58.0,8.0 L74.6,14.9 L91.1,21.7 L107.7,33.9 L124.3,38.6 L140.8,43.0 L157.4,49.0 L174.0,97.1 L190.6,122.2 L207.1,136.1 L223.7,157.1 L240.3,161.4 L256.9,163.7 L273.4,167.5 L290.0,186.0 L306.6,186.9 L323.2,189.3 L339.7,186.2 L356.3,197.4 L372.9,200.1 L389.4,202.0 L406.0,199.7" fill="none" stroke="#22d3ee" stroke-width="2"></path><circle cx="58" cy="8" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2001-07-01: 95.3 million</title></circle><circle cx="74.5606258148631" cy="14.941287233187815" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2002-07-01: 61.4 million</title></circle><circle cx="91.1212516297262" cy="21.67586725938855" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2003-07-01: 40.2 million</title></circle>
1<circle cx="107.72724902216427" cy="33.92949845129428" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2004-07-01: 18.5 million</title></circle><circle cx="124.28787483702737" cy="38.5850132184327" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2005-07-01: 13.8 million</title></circle><circle cx="140.8485006518905" cy="42.9513935325285" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2006-07-01: 10.5 million</title></circle><circle cx="157.40912646675358" cy="49.00187152833085" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2007-07-01: 7.1 million</title></circle><circle cx="174.01512385919165" cy="97.10234264953617" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2008-07-01: 342,502</title></circle><circle cx="190.57574967405475" cy="122.16432654854997" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2009-07-01: 70,333</title></circle><circle cx="207.13637548891785" cy="136.1403655874245" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2010-07-01: 29,092</title></circle><circle cx="223.69700130378098" cy="157.0952437591623" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2011-07-01: 7,743</title></circle><circle cx="240.30299869621905" cy="161.39630436536643" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2012-07-01: 5,901</title></circle><circle cx="256.86362451108215" cy="163.71879509660062" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2013-07-01: 5,096</title></circle><circle cx="273.42425032594525" cy="167.52079103011948" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2014-07-01: 4,008</title></circle><circle cx="289.98487614080835" cy="186.02694903853586" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2015-07-01: 1,245</title></circle><circle cx="306.5908735332464" cy="186.9370584520072" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2016-07-01: 1,176</title></circle><circle cx="323.1514993481095" cy="189.25852733957728" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2017-07-01: 1,015</title></circle><circle cx="339.7121251629726" cy="186.1934722443048" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2018-07-01: 1,232</title></circle><circle cx="356.2727509778357" cy="197.42148185483603" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2019-07-01: 606</title></circle><circle cx="372.8787483702738" cy="200.09927431635015" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2020-07-01: 512</title></circle><circle cx="389.4393741851369" cy="202" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2021-07-01: 454</title></circle><circle cx="406" cy="199.71285319736697" r="3.5" fill="#D4AF37"><title>2022-07-01: 525</title></circle></svg><div class="mt-3"><div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2 text-center"><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">1 month</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">6 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">12 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div></div></div><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-3">Latest: 525 US$ per genome (current dollars), <!-- -->data through <!-- -->2022-07-01<!-- --> (this source updates slowly)<!-- -->. Source:<!-- --> <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" class="underline hover:text-gray-300" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">NHGRI, via Our World in Data</a>. License: <!-- -->CC BY 4.0 (Our World in Data); underlying data from NHGRI (US government, public domain)<!-- -->.</p></article><article class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-5 min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-2 mb-2"><h3 class="text-base font-semibold text-white">Cost to launch a kilogram to orbit</h3><span class="text-xs px-2.5 py-1 rounded-full border text-gray-400 border-white/10 bg-white/5">Not enough data yet</span></div><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-2">Launch cost per kilogram of payload for each launch vehicle, by first launch year. The index tracks the cheapest vehicle so far.</p><p class="text-sm text-cyan-100 mb-3">At the current pace it halves every 20.0 years.</p><p class="text-xs text-amber-200/80 mb-1">No data in the selected range for this source; showing its full history.</p><svg viewBox="0 0 420 230" role="img" aria-label="Cost to launch a kilogram to orbit over time" class="w-full h-auto"><g><line x1="58" x2="412" y1="41.69602270265241" y2="41.69602270265241" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="2" y="45.69602270265241" font-size="13" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">10,000</text></g><text x="166.7691405104136" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">1980</text><text x="291.05485479612787" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2000</text><path d="M58.0,8.0 L76.6,58.5 L89.1,93.8 L200.9,98.6 L356.3,155.5 L406.0,202.0" fill="none" stroke="#22d3ee" stroke-width="2"></path><circle cx="58" cy="8" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>1962-07-01: 14,900</title></circle>
1<circle cx="76.64711058961572" cy="58.464848622609765" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>1965-07-01: 8,200</title></circle><circle cx="89.06717512466999" cy="93.7628870507593" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>1967-07-01: 5,400</title></circle><circle cx="200.93282487533" cy="98.59269283402544" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>1985-07-01: 5,100</title></circle><circle cx="356.2857142857143" cy="155.52185617753634" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2010-07-01: 2,600</title></circle><circle cx="406" cy="202" r="3.5" fill="#D4AF37"><title>2018-07-01: 1,500</title></circle></svg><div class="mt-3"><div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2 text-center"><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">1 month</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">6 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">12 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div></div></div><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-3">Latest: 1,500 US$ per kg to low Earth orbit (constant 2021 dollars) (Falcon Heavy), <!-- -->data through <!-- -->2018-07-01<!-- --> (this source updates slowly)<!-- -->. Source:<!-- --> <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-space-launches-low-earth-orbit" class="underline hover:text-gray-300" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CSIS Aerospace Security Project, via Our World in Data</a>. License: <!-- -->CC BY 4.0 (Our World in Data); underlying data credited to CSIS Aerospace Security Project<!-- -->.</p></article><article class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-5 min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-2 mb-2"><h3 class="text-base font-semibold text-white">Price of solar panels</h3><span class="text-xs px-2.5 py-1 rounded-full border text-amber-300 border-amber-400/40 bg-amber-400/10">Slowing<!-- --> (clear)</span></div><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-2">Average price of a solar photovoltaic module per watt of capacity, adjusted for inflation.</p><p class="text-sm text-cyan-100 mb-3">At the current pace it halves every 6.3 years, compared with every 2.9 years in the window before.</p><svg viewBox="0 0 420 230" role="img" aria-label="Price of solar panels over time" class="w-full h-auto"><text x="88.42077241808508" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2022</text><text x="215.52210801830324" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2023</text><text x="342.6234436185214" y="226" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2024</text><path d="M151.4,8.0 L278.6,85.4 L406.0,202.0" fill="none" stroke="#22d3ee" stroke-width="2"></path><circle cx="151.44910596230284" cy="8" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2022-07-01: 0.37</title></circle><circle cx="278.550441562521" cy="85.3589878351421" r="3.5" fill="#22d3ee"><title>2023-07-01: 0.32</title></circle><circle cx="406" cy="202" r="3.5" fill="#D4AF37"><title>2024-07-01: 0.27</title></circle></svg><div class="mt-3"><div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2 text-center"><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">1 month</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">6 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div><div class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-2"><div class="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">12 months</div><div class="text-sm font-semibold text-white">no new data</div></div></div></div><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-3">Latest: 0.27 US$ per watt (constant 2025 dollars), <!-- -->data through <!-- -->2024-07-01<!-- --> (this source updates slowly)<!-- -->. Source:<!-- --> <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices" class="underline hover:text-gray-300" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">IRENA; Nemet (2009); Farmer and Lafond (2016); processed by Our World in Data</a>. License: <!-- -->CC BY 4.0 (Our World in Data); underlying data credited to IRENA, Nemet, Farmer and Lafond<!-- -->.</p></article></div></section><section aria-labelledby="soc-sixd" class="mb-14"><h2 id="soc-sixd" class="font-orbitron text-xl md:text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-2">The six D&#x27;s: how fast technologies move through their stages</h2><p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">
1Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler describe six stages an exponential technology passes through (from their book <em>Bold</em>, 2015). If newer technologies move from one stage to the next faster than older ones did, that is a second, independent sign that change is accelerating.</p><div class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4 mb-4 overflow-x-auto"><svg viewBox="0 0 420 246" role="img" aria-label="Six D&#x27;s stage timeline by technology" class="w-full h-auto"><g><line x1="53.28301886792453" x2="53.28301886792453" y1="0" y2="226" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="53.28301886792453" y="242" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">1980</text></g><g><line x1="128.75471698113208" x2="128.75471698113208" y1="0" y2="226" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="128.75471698113208" y="242" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">1990</text></g><g><line x1="204.22641509433961" x2="204.22641509433961" y1="0" y2="226" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="204.22641509433961" y="242" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2000</text></g><g><line x1="279.6981132075472" x2="279.6981132075472" y1="0" y2="226" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="279.6981132075472" y="242" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2010</text></g><g><line x1="355.1698113207547" x2="355.1698113207547" y1="0" y2="226" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.08)"></line><text x="355.1698113207547" y="242" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.6)">2020</text></g><g><text x="8" y="15" font-size="14" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.88)">Digital photography</text><line x1="22.46540880503202" x2="294.79245283018867" y1="28" y2="28" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.3)" stroke-width="2"></line><circle cx="22.46540880503202" cy="28" r="6" fill="#94a3b8"><title>Digitized: 1975-12-01</title></circle><circle cx="226.86792452830187" cy="28" r="6" fill="#22d3ee"><title>Disruptive: 2003-01-01</title></circle><circle cx="285.35849056603774" cy="28" r="6" fill="#D4AF37"><title>Demonetized: 2010-10-06</title></circle><circle cx="260.2012578616358" cy="28" r="6" fill="#f472b6"><title>Dematerialized: 2007-06-29</title></circle><circle cx="294.79245283018867" cy="28" r="6" fill="#4ade80"><title>Democratized: 2012-01-19</title></circle></g><g><text x="8" y="69" font-size="14" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.88)">Recorded music</text><line x1="74.0377358490566" x2="270.26415094339626" y1="82" y2="82" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.3)" stroke-width="2"></line><circle cx="74.0377358490566" cy="82" r="6" fill="#94a3b8"><title>Digitized: 1982-10-01</title></circle><circle cx="199.82389937106976" cy="82" r="6" fill="#22d3ee"><title>Disruptive: 1999-06-01</title></circle><circle cx="217.43396226415098" cy="82" r="6" fill="#f472b6"><title>Dematerialized: 2001-10-23</title></circle><circle cx="270.26415094339626" cy="82" r="6" fill="#4ade80"><title>Democratized: 2008-10-07</title></circle></g><g><text x="8" y="123" font-size="14" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.88)">Human genome sequencing</text><line x1="228.7547169811321" x2="309.8867924528302" y1="136" y2="136" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.3)" stroke-width="2"></line><circle cx="228.7547169811321" cy="136" r="6" fill="#94a3b8"><title>Digitized: 2003-04-14</title></circle><circle cx="264.60377358490564" cy="136" r="6" fill="#22d3ee"><title>Disruptive: 2008-01-01</title></circle><circle cx="309.8867924528302" cy="136" r="6" fill="#D4AF37"><title>Demonetized: 2014-01-14</title></circle></g><g><text x="8" y="177" font-size="14" fill="rgba(255,255,255,0.88)">AI language assistants</text><line x1="343.2201257861641" x2="387.8742138364774" y1="190" y2="190" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.3)" stroke-width="2"></line><circle cx="343.2201257861641" cy="190" r="6" fill="#94a3b8"><title>Digitized: 2018-06-11</title></circle><circle cx="376.55345911949627" cy="190" r="6" fill="#22d3ee"><title>Disruptive: 2022-11-30</title></circle><circle cx="387.8742138364774" cy="190" r="6" fill="#D4AF37"><title>Demonetized: 2024-05-13</title></circle></g></svg></div><ul class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-x-6 gap-y-2 mb-4"><li class="text-sm text-gray-300 flex gap-2"><span class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-2.5 rounded-full shrink-0" style="background:#94a3b8"></span><span><b class="text-white">Digitized<!-- -->.</b> <!-- -->The thing has become information: it can be copied, shared and improved at the speed of software.</span></li><li class="text-sm text-gray-300 flex gap-2"><span class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-2.5 rounded-full shrink-0" style="background:#a78bfa"></span><span><b class="text-white">Deceptive<!-- -->.</b> <!-- -->Early exponential growth that still looks small and slow; most observers dismiss it.</span></li><li class="text-sm text-gray-300 flex gap-2"><span class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-2.5 rounded-full shrink-0" style="background:#22d3ee"></span><span><b class="text-white">Disruptive<!-- -->.</b> <!-- -->It now beats the incumbent product or process on cost or capability and is taking real market share.</span></li><li class="text-sm text-gray-300 flex gap-2"><span class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-2.5 rounded-full shrink-0" style="background:#D4AF37"></span><span><b class="text-white">Demonetized<!-- -->.</b> <!-- -->The cost of using it has collapsed toward zero, or money is no longer the main barrier.</span></li><li class="text-sm text-gray-300 flex gap-2"><span class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-2.5 rounded-full shrink-0" style="background:#f472b6"></span><span><b class="text-white">Dematerialized<!-- -->.</b> <!-- -->Separate physical products, devices or services have been absorbed into it.</span></li><li class="text-sm text-gray-300 flex gap-2"><span class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-2.5 rounded-full shrink-0" style="background:#4ade80"></span><span><b class="text-white">Democratized<!-- -->.</b> <!-- -->Anyone, almost anywhere, can access it cheaply.</span></li></ul><div class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 p-4"><p class="text-sm text-white font-semibold mb-2">Years from digitized to disruptive</p><ul class="text-sm text-gray-300 space-y-1"><li>Digital photography<!-- --> (digitized <!-- -->1975<!-- -->): <!-- -->27.1 years</li><li>Recorded music<!-- --> (digitized <!-- -->1982<!-- -->): <!-- -->16.7 years</li><li>Human genome sequencing<!-- --> (digitized <!-- -->2003<!-- -->): <!-- -->4.7 years</li><li>AI language assistants<!-- --> (digitized <!-- -->2018<!-- -->): <!-- -->4.5 years</li></ul><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-3">Stage dates are documented judgments with sources and confidence levels, not measurements. This starting list was chosen because the technologies are well documented, so it illustrates the method rather than proving the thesis on its own. <!-- -->Six D&#x27;
1s of exponentials: Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler, Bold (2015)<!-- -->.</p></div></section><section aria-labelledby="soc-cases" class="mb-14"><h2 id="soc-cases" class="font-orbitron text-xl md:text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-2">This week&#x27;s case studies</h2><p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-5">Before-and-after changes found in this week&#x27;s news. Each one was extracted from the article, then checked: the numbers, the quote and the headline must all be supported by the source. Company claims are labeled as such.</p><ul class="space-y-3"><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">The cost to achieve 75% on ARC-AGI-1 dropped from $26 to a penny in 19 months.</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">cost per task to achieve 75% on ARC-AGI-1<!-- -->: <!-- -->26<!-- --> (<!-- -->2025-02-15<!-- -->) to <!-- -->0.010<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-09-30<!-- -->) <!-- -->USD<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">2600<!-- -->x better</span> in 19 months<!-- -->.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->Hitting 75% on ARC-AGI-1 got 99.95% cheaper in 19 months, from $26 per task to a penny.<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-september-30-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">Welcome to September 30, 2026</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-09-30<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">Shodh AI&#x27;s physical AI model cut chemical process optimization time from over 500 hours to under 6 hours in a live pilot plant.</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">Time to optimize chemical manufacturing process<!-- -->: <!-- -->500<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-08-15<!-- -->) to <!-- -->6.00<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-08-15<!-- -->) <!-- -->hours<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">83.33<!-- -->x better</span>.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->lifted yield from 82.4% to 96.7% while cutting an optimization process from over 500 hours down to under six<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sFkhT1m8gk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">EXCLUSIVE: Shodh AI Built India&#x27;s First Physical AI Model and Cut 500 Hours of Chemistry Work to 6</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-09-23<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">Gemini 4 Argon achieved a 1M-token output limit, up from 64K tokens in the previous generation.</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">maximum output tokens<!-- -->: <!-- -->64,000<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-02-15<!-- -->) to <!-- -->1.0 million<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-10-01<!-- -->) <!-- -->tokens<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">15.63<!-- -->x better</span> in 7 months<!-- -->.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->Google cites an industry-leading 1M-token output limit, up from 64K<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-gemini-4-argon-gdms-answer" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">[AINews] Gemini 4 Argon: GDM’s answer to Astra/Fable, with 1M output</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-10-01<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">The price of AI capability is falling 13 times per year</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">Price of a given capability per year<!-- -->: <!-- -->1.00<!-- --> (<!-- -->2025-09-24<!-- -->) to <!-- -->0.077<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-09-24<!-- -->) <!-- -->fold reduction per year<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">12.99<!-- -->x better</span> in 12 months<!-- -->.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->the price of a given capability is falling 13x a year, apparently the fastest drop of any transformative technology<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-september-24-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">Welcome to September 24, 2026</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-09-24<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">Perplexity Photon reduced p99 retrieval latency from 800ms to 65ms while reducing machine count by 20%.</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">p99 retrieval latency<!-- -->: <!-- -->800<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-09-15<!-- -->) to <!-- -->65<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-09-29<!-- -->) <!-- -->milliseconds<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">12.31<!-- -->x better</span>.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->Internal p99 fell from about 800ms to about 65ms, on about 20% fewer machines with 2.5 more data per document.<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-opus-55-is-good-at-explainer" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">[AINews] Opus 5.5 is good at explainer videos</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-09-29<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">Claude Sonnet 5.5 improved from 10.3% to 70.6% on Terminal-Bench 4.0 benchmark.</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">Terminal-Bench 4.0 benchmark score<!-- -->: <!-- -->10<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-07-01<!-- -->) to <!-- -->71<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-09-29<!-- -->) <!-- -->percent<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">6.85<!-- -->x better</span> in 3 months<!-- -->.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->leaps from 10.3% to 70.6% on Terminal-Bench 4.0<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-september-29-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">Welcome to September 29, 2026</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-09-29<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">NVIDIA speech model compressed from 1.2GB to 178MB while maintaining accuracy and running at 113x realtime on CPU</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">Model size<!-- -->: <!-- -->1.20<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-07-01<!-- -->) to <!-- -->0.18<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-09-22<!-- -->) <!-- -->GB<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">6.74<!-- -->x better</span> in 3 months<!-- -->.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->@vikhyatk released Parakeet Redux, compressing NVIDIAs speech model from 1.2GB to 178MB, running at 113x realtime on CPU<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-xiaomi-mimo-v26-pro-1t-a42b" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">[AINews] Xiaomi MiMo-V2.6-Pro 1T-A42B: the new top Open Weights model, trained for $3M</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-09-22<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">Chinese AI models surged from 13% to 67% of tokens used on OpenRouter platform in seven months.</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">share of tokens used<!-- -->: <!-- -->13<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-02-15<!-- -->) to <!-- -->67<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-09-15<!-- -->) <!-- -->percent<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">5.15<!-- -->x better</span> in 7 months<!-- -->.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->On OpenRouter, Chinese models accounted for up to 67% of all tokens used in mid-September, up from just 13% in February.<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ikq9SPLYwy8" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">ALERT: China&#x27;s AI Models Now Run 67% of Global Developer Workloads and US Committees Are Panicking</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-09-28<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">Gemini&#x27;s performance on Terminal Bench 4.0 rose from 19.0% to 57.6%.</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">Gemini performance on Terminal Bench 4.0<!-- -->: <!-- -->19<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-03-15<!-- -->) to <!-- -->58<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-10-01<!-- -->) <!-- -->percent<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">3.03<!-- -->x better</span> in 7 months<!-- -->.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->Terminal-Bench 4.0 rose from 19.0% to 57.6%<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-gemini-4-argon-gdms-answer" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">[AINews] Gemini 4 Argon: GDM’s answer to Astra/Fable, with 1M output</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-10-01<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">Claude Opus 5.5 costs 40% as much as Opus 5 while matching competitor performance</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">Cost relative to previous generation<!-- -->: <!-- -->100<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-09-15<!-- -->) to <!-- -->40<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-09-24<!-- -->) <!-- -->percent of Opus 5 cost<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">2.5<!-- -->x better</span>.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->
1matching Fable 5.1 on most work at 40% less cost than Opus 5<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-september-24-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">Welcome to September 24, 2026</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-09-24<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">Gemini 4 Argon&#x27;s output token pricing fell from $20 to $10 per million tokens with introductory discounts.</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">price per million output tokens<!-- -->: <!-- -->20<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-02-15<!-- -->) to <!-- -->10<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-10-01<!-- -->) <!-- -->USD per 1M output tokens<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">2<!-- -->x better</span> in 7 months<!-- -->.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->Standard pricing is $4/$20 per 1M input/output tokens. A 50% introductory discount brings it to $2/$10<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI cost<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-gemini-4-argon-gdms-answer" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">[AINews] Gemini 4 Argon: GDM’s answer to Astra/Fable, with 1M output</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-10-01<!-- -->)</p></li><li class="rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4"><p class="text-white font-semibold">Shodh AI&#x27;s physical AI model improved chemical yield from 82.4% to 96.7% in a live industrial pilot.</p><p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1">Chemical reaction yield in bioreactor optimization<!-- -->: <!-- -->82<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-08-15<!-- -->) to <!-- -->97<!-- --> (<!-- -->2026-08-15<!-- -->) <!-- -->percent<!-- -->.<!-- --> <span class="text-[#D4AF37]">1.17<!-- -->x better</span>.</p><blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2">“<!-- -->lifted yield from 82.4% to 96.7% while cutting an optimization process from over 500 hours down to under six<!-- -->”</blockquote><p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">AI capability<!-- --> · <!-- -->independent measurement<!-- --> ·<!-- --> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sFkhT1m8gk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="underline hover:text-gray-300">EXCLUSIVE: Shodh AI Built India&#x27;s First Physical AI Model and Cut 500 Hours of Chemistry Work to 6</a> <!-- -->(<!-- -->2026-09-23<!-- -->)</p></li></ul></section><section id="methodology" aria-labelledby="soc-method" class="mb-14 scroll-mt-20"><h2 id="soc-method" class="font-orbitron text-xl md:text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-4">How the index is measured (method v1)</h2><div class="space-y-4 text-sm text-gray-300 leading-relaxed"><p><b class="text-white">Trend lines come first.</b> The backbone is measured data from named sources: Epoch AI&#x27;s Capabilities Index and its database of AI training runs, METR&#x27;s measurements of how long a task an AI system can complete, solar module prices (IRENA and others, via Our World in Data), the cost of sequencing a human genome (US National Human Genome Research Institute), the cost of launching a kilogram to orbit (CSIS), and lithium-ion battery pack prices (BloombergNEF press releases). News never moves a trend line.</p><p><b class="text-white">Doubling time.</b> For each line we fit the trend over the most recent 24 months (10 years for sources that publish once a year) and convert it to the number of months the measure takes to double, or a price to halve. That puts AI, batteries and genomes on one scale. For record-style measures (the best AI model, the cheapest launcher) only new records count. For average prices every observation counts, so a price that rises again shows up as a slowdown instead of being hidden.</p><p><b class="text-white">Acceleration and slowdowns.</b> Each line&#x27;s current window is compared with the window before it. Faster than before by more than 10% is marked accelerating, slower by more than 10% is marked slowing, and anything between is steady. “Clear” means the 90% confidence ranges of the two windows do not overlap. Slowdowns are published exactly as prominently as speedups.</p><p><b class="text-white">Changes over 1, 6 and 12 months</b> compare the latest value with the value that stood that many months ago. When a source has published nothing new in that period, the index says so rather than showing a false zero.</p><p><b class="text-white">Case studies.</b> Disruption Radar reads several hundred technology articles a week. A specialized judging model, Jev from TypeSafe AI, first asks whether each article reports a measurable change. For articles that do, Claude (Anthropic) extracts the before and after values. Jev then checks that the article supports the numbers, the quote, the change over time and the plain-language headline. Items that fail go to human review, and the same development reported by several outlets is counted once.</p><p><b class="text-white">Permanence.</b> Each week&#x27;s index is frozen when it is published and kept forever. Corrections are added as 
1new versions; earlier values are never overwritten. A change to this method creates a new version of the index alongside the old one.</p><p><b class="text-white">Limits.</b> Some sources update slowly, and those lines say how old their data is. METR has not yet granted permission to republish its data, so only our derived rates are shown for that line. The six D&#x27;s stage dates are judgments with stated sources. This is an independent analysis and not investment advice.</p></div></section><section aria-labelledby="soc-signup" class="mb-14 max-w-2xl mx-auto"><h2 id="soc-signup" class="font-orbitron text-xl md:text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-2 text-center">Follow the index</h2><p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-5 text-center">Join the FutureFast list to receive Speed of Change Index updates and reports.</p><div class=""><form class="space-y-4"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4"><div><input type="text" placeholder="First Name *" class="w-full px-4 py-3 bg-slate-50 border border-cyan-500/40 rounded-lg text-gray-800 placeholder-gray-500 focus:outline-none focus:border-cyan-400 focus:ring-1 focus:ring-cyan-400" name="firstName" value=""/></div><div><input type="text" placeholder="Last Name *" class="w-full px-4 py-3 bg-slate-50 border border-cyan-500/40 rounded-lg text-gray-800 placeholder-gray-500 focus:outline-none focus:border-cyan-400 focus:ring-1 focus:ring-cyan-400" name="lastName" value=""/></div></div><div><input type="email" placeholder="Email Address *" class="w-full px-4 py-3 bg-slate-50 border border-cyan-500/40 rounded-lg text-gray-800 placeholder-gray-500 focus:outline-none focus:border-cyan-400 focus:ring-1 focus:ring-cyan-400" name="email" value=""/></div><div><input type="tel" placeholder="Phone (Optional)" class="w-full px-4 py-3 bg-slate-50 border border-cyan-500/40 rounded-lg text-gray-800 placeholder-gray-500 focus:outline-none focus:border-cyan-400 focus:ring-1 focus:ring-cyan-400" name="phone" value=""/></div><div><textarea name="comment" placeholder="Any comments or questions? (Optional)" rows="3" class="w-full px-4 py-3 bg-slate-50 border border-cyan-500/40 rounded-lg text-gray-800 placeholder-gray-500 focus:outline-none focus:border-cyan-400 focus:ring-1 focus:ring-cyan-400 resize-y"></textarea></div><div aria-hidden="true" style="position:absolute;left:-9999px;opacity:0;height:0;overflow:hidden"><label for="website">Website</label><input type="text" id="website" tabindex="-1" autoComplete="off" name="website" value=""/></div><button type="submit" class="w-full py-3 px-6 rounded-lg font-semibold transition-all duration-200 bg-cyan-500 text-black hover:bg-cyan-400 hover:shadow-lg hover:shadow-cyan-400/25">Subscribe</button><p class="text-xs text-gray-400 text-center">We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe at any time.</p></form></div></section><footer class="text-center text-xs text-gray-500 pb-6">Data: Epoch AI (CC BY 4.0), Our World in Data (CC BY 4.0), NHGRI, IRENA, CSIS, BloombergNEF, METR. Analysis: Disruption Radar for FutureFast.</footer></div></main><!--$--><!--/$-->
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1<script>self.__next_f.push([1,"43:[\"$\",\"li\",\"cmutwb140003lv112xdftdvjg\",{\"className\":\"rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/[0.03] p-4\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"text-white font-semibold\",\"children\":\"Gemini's performance on Terminal Bench 4.0 rose from 19.0% to 57.6%.\"}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1\",\"children\":[\"Gemini performance on Terminal Bench 4.0\",\": \",\"19\",\" (\",\"2026-03-15\",\") to \",\"58\",\" (\",\"2026-10-01\",\") \",\"percent\",\".\",\" \",[\"$\",\"span\",null,{\"className\":\"text-[#D4AF37]\",\"children\":[3.03,\"x better\"]}],\" in 7 months\",\".\"]}],[\"$\",\"blockquote\",null,{\"className\":\"text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-white/15 pl-3 mt-2\",\"children\":[\"“\",\"Terminal-Bench 4.0 rose from 19.0% to 57.6%\",\"”\"]}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2\",\"children\":[\"AI capability\",\" · \",\"independent measurement\",\" ·\",\" \",[\"$\",\"a\",null,{\"href\":\"https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-gemini-4-argon-gdms-answer\",\"target\":\"_blank\",\"rel\":\"noopener noreferrer\",\"className\":\"underline hover:text-gray-300\",\"children\":\"[AINews] Gemini 4 Argon: GDM’s answer to Astra/Fable, with 1M output\"}],\" \",\"(\",\"2026-10-01\",\")\"]}]]}]\n"])</script>
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1<script>self.__next_f.push([1,"4c:[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"text-xs text-gray-500 mt-3\",\"children\":[\"Latest: 525 US$ per genome (current dollars), \",\"data through \",\"2022-07-01\",\" (this source updates slowly)\",\". Source:\",\" \",[\"$\",\"a\",null,{\"href\":\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome\",\"className\":\"underline hover:text-gray-300\",\"target\":\"_blank\",\"rel\":\"noopener noreferrer\",\"children\":\"NHGRI, via Our World in Data\"}],\". License: \",\"CC BY 4.0 (Our World in Data); underlying data from NHGRI (US government, public domain)\",\".\"]}]\n"])</script>
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