1import{i as e,t}from"./react-CYoUnH_4.js";import{d as n,m as r}from"./app-CWgmxBnP.js";import{r as i}from"./SiteFooter-BWSZAxSi.js";var a=e(t(),1),o=r(),s={securities:{turns:{Cooperative:[{q:`Walk me through your event study. What benchmark and what estimation window?`,a:`An OLS market model against SPY, with a one-hundred-and-twenty-trading-day estimation window ending ten days before each event date.`},{q:`And what R-squared did that model produce for the January 31 event date?`,a:`0.123 for January 31. It is 0.18 for April 2.`},{q:`So the benchmark explains about twelve percent of Luckin's daily return variation. Does a lower R-squared widen your standard errors?`,a:`Mechanically, yes. A poorer fit produces a larger residual variance and therefore a wider confidence interval around any given abnormal return.`},{q:`Then your finding that January 31 is not statistically significant, at a t of negative 1.53, is partly a function of how poorly the model fits, not only of whether the market moved.`,a:`It is a function of both. I would not characterise a t-statistic of negative 1.53 as evidence of price impact, but I accept that a better-specified model could produce a narrower interval around the same point estimate.`},{q:`Last one. Your report attributes the April 2 collapse partly to market conditions. Can you name the non-fraud event on April 2 that moved this stock seventy-eight percent?`,a:`I did not identify a specific non-fraud event. My opinion is that the environment on that date was confounded by the trading halt and delisting risk, and that the decline should be disaggregated before it is used for damages.`}],Hostile:[{q:`Your market model for January 31 produced an R-squared of 0.123. Correct?`,a:`That figure appears in my report.`},{q:`A lower R-squared produces a wider standard error. Yes or no?`,a:`All else equal, yes. That is not a criticism of the model.`},{q:`I did not ask whether it was a criticism. A wider standard error makes statistical significance harder to reach. Yes or no?`,a:`Yes.`},{q:`Can you name a single non-fraud event on April 2, 2020 that moved this stock seventy-eight percent?`,a:`My assignment was not to identify particular news events. It was to assess whether the price movement can be cleanly attributed.`},{q:`So the answer is no. And your report opines that the decline was driven by market conditions.`,a:`It does not. My report opines on statistical significance, not on the legal question of loss causation.`}]},name:`In re Luckin Coffee Inc. Securities Litigation`,meta:`Class period 2019-05-17 to 2020-04-01 · vs. Defense Event-Study Econometrician`,initial:`Hostile`},antitrust:{turns:{Cooperative:[{q:`Doctor, did you run any regression of your own on the cylindrical-cell transaction data?`,a:`No. My assignment was to evaluate the plaintiffs' model, not to construct an alternative one.`},{q:`The class members you identified as uninjured. Were they identified using the plaintiffs' cost-elasticity assumptions, or your own?`,a:`My own. I substituted assumptions I consider better supported by the economics.`},{q:`Did you run a Chow test to establish that the transaction data should not be pooled?`,a:`I did not run a formal Chow test. My pooling objection rests on economic reasoning and sensitivity analysis.`},{q:`For the transactions you labelled false positives, did you review the underlying contracts to see whether any were renewed after January 2000?`,a:`I relied on the pricing-formula fields in the transaction data rather than the contract documents themselves.`},{q:`You conclude the price effect is not statistically distinguishable from zero. Is that a finding that there was no effect, or that your specification cannot detect one?`,a:`The latter. It is a finding about the model's ability to detect an effect, not a finding that no effect exists.`}],Hostile:[{q:`You built no model of your own in this case. Correct?`,a:`I evaluated the model that was offered. That is a recognised expert function.`},{q:`That is not what I asked. Did you run a regression on this data, yes or no?`,a:`No.`},{q:`Your uninjured-class-member count comes out of assumptions you substituted for the plaintiffs'. Correct?`,a:`It comes out of a correctly specified model. The plaintiffs' assumptions were the ones that were unsupported.`},{q:`Then if the jury credits their assumptions rather than yours, your uninjured count is zero. Correct?`,a:`If one adopts assumptions I regard as economically indefensible, one would reach a different c
1ount.`},{q:`You told this court the price effect is not statistically distinguishable from zero. That is a statement about your model, not about the market. 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