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304                                               transition-transform duration-300 group-hover/item:-rotate-45"
305                                                >
306                                            </div>
307                                        </a>
308                                                                            
309                                        <a
310                                                href="/network/search?page=1&amp;type=affiliates&amp;view=card#people"
311                                                class="group/item flex items-center h-[34px] gap-[15px] text-white transition-all"
312                                        >
313                                <span class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold group-hover/item:opacity-80">
314                                    Research Affiliates
315                                </span>
316
317                                            <div class="relative h-[34px] w-[34px] flex items-center justify-center">
318                                                <div class="absolute inset-0 rounded-full bg-red-600 scale-0 group-hover/item:scale-100"></div>
319                                                <img
320                                                        src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/arrow-button.svg"
321                                                        alt=""
322                                                        class="absolute inset-0 m-auto h-full w-full object-contain
323                                               transition-transform duration-300 group-hover/item:-rotate-45"
324                                                >
325                                            </div>
326                                        </a>
327                                                                            
328                                        <a
329                                                href="/network/net
329work-advisory-panel"
330                                                class="group/item flex items-center h-[34px] gap-[15px] text-white transition-all"
331                                        >
332                                <span class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold group-hover/item:opacity-80">
333                                    Network Advisory Panel
334                                </span>
335
336                                            <div class="relative h-[34px] w-[34px] flex items-center justify-center">
337                                                <div class="absolute inset-0 rounded-full bg-red-600 scale-0 group-hover/item:scale-100"></div>
338                                                <img
339                                                        src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/arrow-button.svg"
340                                                        alt=""
341                                                        class="absolute inset-0 m-auto h-full w-full object-contain
342                                               transition-transform duration-300 group-hover/item:-rotate-45"
343                                                >
344                                            </div>
345                                        </a>
346                                                                    </div>
347                                                    </div>
348                                            
349                        <div class="relative group/nav">
350                            <a
351                                    href="/publications"
352                                                                        class="relative h-20 flex items-center px-5 gap-[15px]
353                           text-[16px] text-black tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold
354                           group-hover/nav:bg-[#00091e] group-hover/nav:text-white
355                           transition-colors duration-150"
356                            >
357                                <span>Publications</span>
358
359                                                                    <span class="inline-flex items-center justify-center h-5 w-5">
360                            <span class="rotate-wrapper transition-transform duration-300 group-hover/nav:rotate-180">
361                                <svg class="h-full w-full scale-150 translate-y-[2px]"
362                                     width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none"
363                                     xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
364                                    <path d="M6 8L12 14L18 8" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5"
365                                          stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"/>
366                                </svg>
367                            </span>
368                        </span>
369                                                            </a>
370
371                                                            <div
372                                        class="absolute left-0 top-full bg-[#00091e] text-white font-cabin text-[16px]
373                               opacity-0 pointer-events-none
374                               group-hover/nav:opacity-100 group-hover/nav:pointer-events-auto
375                               transition-opacity duration-200
376                               w-[400px] px-10 py-10
377                               flex flex-col items-start gap-5"
378                                >
379                                                                            
380                                        <a
381                                                href="/publications"
382                                                class="group/item flex items-center h-[34px] gap-[15px] text-white transition-all"
383                                        >
384                                <span class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold group-hover/item:opacity-80">
385                                    Overview
386                                </span>
387
388                                            <div class="relative h-[34px] w-[34px] flex items-center justify-center">
389                                                <div class="absolute inset-0 rounded-full bg-red-600 scale-0 group-hover/item:scale-100"></div>
390                                                <img
391                                                        src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/arrow-button.svg"
392                                                        alt=""
393                                                        class="absolute inset-0 m-auto h-full w-full object-contain
394                                               transition-transform duration-300 group-hover/item:-rotate-45"
395                                                >
396                                            </div>
397                                        </a>
398                                                                            
399                                        <a
400                                                href="/publications/dp"
401                                                class="group/item flex items-center h-[34px] gap-[15px] text-white transition-all"
402                                        >
403                                <span class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold group-hover/item:opacity-80">
404                                    Discussion Papers
405                                </span>
406
407                                            <div class="relative h-[34px] w-[34px] flex items-center justify-center">
408                                                <div class="absolute inset-0 rounded-full bg-red-600 scale-0 group-hover/item:scale-100"></div>
409                                                <img
410                                                        src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/arrow-button.svg"
411                                                        alt=""
412                                                        class="absolute inset-0 m-auto h-full w-full object-contain
413                                               transition-transform duration-300 group-hover/item:-rotate-45"
414                                                >
415                                            </div>
416                                        </a>
417                                                                            
418                                        <a
419                                                href="https://wol.iza.org/"
420                                                class="group/item flex items-center h-[34px] gap-[15px] text-white transition-all"
421                                        >
422                                <span class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold group-hover/item:opacity-80">
423                                    World of Labour
424                                </span>
425
426                                            <div class="relative h-[34px] w-[34px] flex items-center justify-center">
427                                                <div class="absolute inset-0 rounded-full bg-red-600 scale-0 group-hover/item:scale-100"></div>
428                                                <img
429                                                        src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/arrow-button.svg"
430                                                        alt=""
431                                                        class="absolute inset-0 m-auto h-full w-full object-contain
432                                               transition-transform duration-300 group-hover/item:-rotate-45"
433                                                >
434                                            </div>
435                                        </a>
436                                                                    </div>
437                                                    </div>
438                                            
439                        <div class="relative group/nav">
440                            <a
441                                    href="/events"
442                                                                        class="relative h-20 flex items-center px-5 gap-[15px]
443                           text-[16px] text-black tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold
444                           group-hover/nav:bg-[#00091e] group-hover/nav:text-white
445                           transition-colors duration-150"
446                            >
447                                <span>Events</span>
448
449                                                                    <span class="inline-flex items-center justify-center h-5 w-5">
450                            <span class="rotate-wrapper transition-transform duration-300 group-hover/nav:rotate-180">
451                                <svg class="h-full w-full scale-150 translate-y-[2px]"
452                                     width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none"
453                                     xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
454                                    <path d="M6 8L12 14L18 8" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5"
455                                          stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"/>
456                                </svg>
457                            </span>
458                        </span>
459                                                            </a>
460
461                                                            <div
462                                        class="absolute left-0 top-full bg-[#00091e] text-white font-cabin text-[16px]
463                               opacity-0 pointer-events-none
464                               group-hover/nav:opacity-100 group-hover/nav:pointer-events-auto
465                               transition-opacity duration-200
466                               w-[400px] px-10 py-10
467                               flex flex-col items-start gap-5"
468                                >
469                                                                            
470                                        <a
471                                                href="/events"
472                                                class="group/item flex items-center h-[34px] gap-[15px] text-white transition-all"
473                                        >
474                                <span class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold group-hover/item:opacity-80">
475                                    Overview
476                                </span>
477
478                                            <div class="relative h-[34px] w-[34px] flex items-center justify-center">
479                                                <div class="absolute inset-0 rounded-full bg-red-600 scale-0 group-hover/item:scale-100"></div>
480                                                <img
481                                                        src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/arrow-button.svg"
482                                                        alt=""
483                                                        class="absolute inset-0 m-auto h-full w-full object-contain
484                                               transition-transform duration-300 group-hover/item:-rotate-45"
485                                                >
486                                            </div>
487                                        </a>
488                                                                    </div>
489                                                    </div>
490                    
491                    
492                    <button
493                            type="button"
494                            class="w-10 h-10 flex items-center justify-center"
495                            @click="searchOpen = true; $nextTick(() => $refs.searchInput?.focus())"
496                            aria-label="Search"
497                    >
498                        <img
499                                src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/magnifying-glass-icon.svg"
500                                alt="Search"
501                                class="w-6 h-6 object-contain"
502                        >
503                    </button>
504                </div>
505                
506                <div
507                        x-show="searchOpen"
508                        x-transition.opacity.duration.150ms
509                        class="flex items-center justify-end flex-1"
510                >
511                    <form action="/search" method="GET" class="flex items-center justify-end gap-[50px] pt-1 flex-1">
512
513                        
514                        <div class="flex items-center justify-between w-1/2 border-b border-[#e8e9eb] py-[10px] pr-[10px]">
515                            <input
516                                    x-ref="searchInput"
517                                    type="text"
518                                    name="q"
519                                    placeholder="YOUR SEARCH TERM..."
520                                    class="flex-1 bg-transparent outline-none text-[14px] tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold text-[#00091e] placeholder:text-[#00091e]/60"
521                            />
522
523                            <button type="submit" class="ml-3 flex items-center justify-center"
524                                    aria-label="Submit search">
525                                <img
526                                        src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/magnifying-glass-icon.svg"
527                                        alt=""
528                                        class="w-5 h-5 object-contain"
529                                >
530                            </button>
531                        </div>
532
533                        
534                        <button
535                                type="button"
536                                @click="searchOpen = false"
537                                class="w-10 h-10 flex items-center justify-center"
538                                aria-label="Close search"
539                        >
540                            <img
541                                    src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/close.svg"
542                                    alt="Close"
543                                    class="w-5 h-5 object-contain"
544                            >
545                        </button>
546
547                    </form>
548                </div>
549
550
551            </div>
552
553            <div class="flex md:hidden items-center gap-2">
554                <button
555                        type="button"
556                        class="w-12 h-12 flex items-center justify-center"
557                        aria-label="Open menu"
558                        @click="mobileNav.open = true; mobileNav.level = 1; mobileNav.activeIndex = null"
559                >
560                    <img
561                            src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/hamburger-menu
561-m.svg"
562                            alt="Menu"
563                            class="w-7 h-7 object-contain"
564                    >
565                </button>
566            </div>
567        </div>
568    </div>
569    <div
570            x-cloak
571            x-show="mobileNav.open"
572            x-transition.opacity
573            class="fixed inset-0 z-[60] bg-black/40 md:hidden"
574            @click="mobileNav.open = false"
575    ></div>
576
577    <div
578            x-cloak
579            x-show="mobileNav.open"
580            x-transition:enter="transition ease-out duration-200"
581            x-transition:enter-start="translate-x-full"
582            x-transition:enter-end="translate-x-0"
583            x-transition:leave="transition ease-in duration-200"
584            x-transition:leave-start="translate-x-0"
585            x-transition:leave-end="translate-x-full"
586            class="fixed top-0 right-0 z-[70] h-screen w-full max-w-[430px] bg-white text-black md:hidden"
587            @click.stop
588    >
589        <div class="h-full flex flex-col">
590            <div class="h-[68px] flex items-center font-inter text-[12px]">
591                <div class="flex-1 h-[68px] flex items-center gap-5 pl-5">
592                                            <a
593                                href="https://www.iza.org/cms/language/de/news/brain-freeze-was-amerika-die-abkehr-von-auslaendischen-talenten-kosten-koennte"
594                                class="text-black hover:text-black/70 font-semibold leading-[14px]"
595                        >
596                            DE
597                        </a>
598                                            <a
599                                href="https://www.iza.org/cms/language/en/news/brain-freeze-the-economic-costs-of-restricting-international-stem-students"
600                                class="text-[#808080] font-semibold leading-[14px]"
601                        >
602                            EN
603                        </a>
604                                    </div>
605                <div class="h-[68px] w-[68px] flex items-center justify-end px-5">
606                    <button
607                            type="button"
608                            class="w-5 h-5 flex items-center justify-center"
609                            aria-label="Close menu"
610                            @click="mobileNav.open = false"
611                    >
612                        <img
613                                src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/close.svg"
614                                alt="Close"
615                                class="w-5 h-5 object-contain"
616                        >
617                    </button>
618                </div>
619
620            </div>
621            <div
622                    class="flex-1 overflow-y-auto"
623                    x-show="mobileNav.level === 1"
624                    x-transition.opacity
625            >
626                <div class="px-5 py-4">
627                    <form action="/search" method="GET" class="w-full">
628                        <div class="flex items-center gap-3 border-b border-[#e8e9eb] pb-2">
629                            <input
630                                    type="search"
631                                    name="q"
632                                    inputmode="search"
633                                    autocomplete="off"
634                                    placeholder="YOUR SEARCH TERM..."
635                                    class="flex-1 bg-transparent outline-none text-[14px] tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold text-[#00091e] placeholder:text-[#00091e]/60"
636                            />
637
638                            <button
639                                    type="submit"
640                                    class="w-10 h-10 -mr-2 flex items-center justify-center"
641                                    aria-label="Submit search"
642                            >
643                                <img
644                                        src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/magnifying-glass-icon.svg"
645                                        alt=""
646                                        class="w-5 h-5 object-contain"
647                                >
648                            </button>
649                        </div>
650                    </form>
651                </div>
652                <div class="p-5">
653                    <div class="flex flex-col gap-[41px] text-[16px] font-cabin">
654                                                    
655                                                            <button
656                                        type="button"
657                                        class="w-full h-[19px] flex items-center justify-between gap-5 text-left"
658                                        @click="openSecondLevel(0)"
659                                >
660                                    <span class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold">About us</span>
661                                    <svg class="w-[5px] h-2" viewBox="0 0 5 8" fill="none" aria-hidden="true">
662                                        <path d="M1 1L4 4L1 7" stroke="#000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round"
663                                              stroke-linejoin="round"/>
664                                    </svg>
665                                </button>
666                                                                                
667                                                            <button
668                                        type="button"
669                                        class="w-full h-[19px] flex items-center justify-between gap-5 text-left"
670                                        @click="openSecondLevel(1)"
671                                >
672                                    <span class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold">Network</span>
673                                    <svg class="w-[5px] h-2" viewBox="0 0 5 8" fill="none" aria-hidden="true">
674                                        <path d="M1 1L4 4L1 7" stroke="#000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round"
675                                              stroke-linejoin="round"/>
676                                    </svg>
677                                </button>
678                                                                                
679                                                            <button
680                                        type="button"
681                                        class="w-full h-[19px] flex items-center justify-between gap-5 text-left"
682                                        @click="openSecondLevel(2)"
683                                >
684                                    <span class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold">Publications</span>
685                                    <svg class="w-[5px] h-2" viewBox="0 0 5 8" fill="none" aria-hidden="true">
686                                        <path d="M1 1L4 4L1 7" stroke="#000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round"
687                                              stroke-linejoin="round"/>
688                                    </svg>
689                                </button>
690                                                                                
691                                                            <button
692                                        type="button"
693                                        class="w-full h-[19px] flex items-center justify-between gap-5 text-left"
694                                        @click="openSecondLevel(3)"
695                                >
696                                    <span class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold">Events</span>
697                                    <svg class="w-[5px] h-2" viewBox="0 0 5 8" fill="none" aria-hidden="true">
698                                        <path d="M1 1L4 4L1 7" stroke="#000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round"
699                                              stroke-linejoin="round"/>
700                                    </svg>
701                                </button>
702                                                    
703                        <div class="flex flex-col gap-[41px] font-inter text-[12px] leading-[14px]">
704                            <a href="https://liser.lu" target="_blank" class="text-black">LISER</a>
705                            <a href="https://liser.lu/policy-lab" target="_blank" class="text-black">Policy Lab</a>
706                            <a href="https://wol.iza.org" target="_blank" class="text-black">
706World of Labour</a>
707                            <a href="https://lounge.iza.org" target="_blank" class="text-black">Login</a>
708                        </div>
709                    </div>
710                </div>
711            </div>
712
713            <div
714                    class="flex-1 overflow-y-auto"
715                    x-show="mobileNav.level === 2"
716                    x-transition.opacity
717            >
718                <div class="bg-[#FAFAFB] border-b border-[#E8E9EB] flex items-center gap-[15px] px-[10px] pr-[15px]">
719                    <div class="h-[81px] w-9 flex items-center">
720                        <button type="button" class="w-[34px] h-[34px]" @click="goBack()" aria-label="Go back">
721                            <svg width="34" height="34" viewBox="0 0 34 34" fill="none"
722                                 xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="w-[34px] h-[34px] object-contain rotate-180">
723                                <path d="M10.0996 16.6484C9.6854 16.6484 9.34961 16.9842 9.34961 17.3984C9.34961 17.8127 9.6854 18.1484 10.0996 18.1484V17.3984V16.6484ZM23.6299 17.9288C23.9228 17.6359 23.9228 17.161 23.6299 16.8681L18.857 12.0951C18.5641 11.8022 18.0892 11.8022 17.7963 12.0951C17.5034 12.388 17.5034 12.8629 17.7963 13.1558L22.0389 17.3984L17.7963 21.6411C17.5034 21.934 17.5034 22.4088 17.7963 22.7017C18.0892 22.9946 18.5641 22.9946 18.857 22.7017L23.6299 17.9288ZM10.0996 17.3984V18.1484H16.5996V17.3984V16.6484H10.0996V17.3984ZM16.5996 17.3984V18.1484H23.0996V17.3984V16.6484H16.5996V17.3984Z"
724                                      fill="black"/>
725                            </svg>
726                        </button>
727                    </div>
728
729                    <div class="h-[81px] flex-1 flex flex-col justify-center gap-[9px]">
730                        <div class="font-cabin text-[16px] font-semibold tracking-[0.03em]"
731                             x-text="activeLabel()"></div>
732                        <div class="font-inter text-[12px] leading-[14px] font-semibold text-[#787878]">Go back</div>
733                    </div>
734                </div>
735                <div class="p-5">
736                    <div class="flex flex-col gap-[41px] text-[16px] font-cabin">
737                        <template x-for="child in activeChildren()"
738                                  :key="(child.id ?? child.pk ?? child.slug ?? JSON.stringify(child))">
739                            <a
740                                    :href="(() => {
741                                const loc = 'en';
742                                return (child['target_'+loc]?.[0]?.text) ?? '#';
743                            })()"
744                                    class="h-[19px] flex items-center"
745                                    @click="mobileNav.open = false"
746                            >
747                            <span
748                                    class="tracking-[0.03em] font-semibold"
749                                    x-text="(() => {
750                                    const loc = 'en';
751                                    return (child['label_'+loc]?.[0]?.text) ?? '';
752                                })()"
753                            ></span>
754                            </a>
755                        </template>
756                    </div>
757                </div>
758            </div>
759
760            <div class="h-2"></div>
761        </div>
762    </div>
763</nav>
764
765<div
766        x-data="cookieConsent()"
767        x-init="init()"
768        x-show="visible"
769        x-cloak
770        class="fixed inset-0 z-[9000] flex items-center justify-center bg-black/80"
771>
772    <div class="bg-white max-w-lg w-full mx-4 rounded-lg shadow-xl p-6">
773
774        <div class="text-gray-900 text-base mb-6">
775            We use cookies to provide you with the best possible website experience. This includes cookies that are necessary for the operation of the site, as well as cookies used for anonymous statistics, comfort settings, or displaying personalized content. You can decide which categories you want to allow. Please note that depending on your settings, some features of the website may not be available.        </div>
776
777        <div class="space-y-3">
778            <button
779                    @click="showSettings = true"
780                    class="w-full bg-gray-800 text-white py-2 rounded hover:bg-gray-700"
781            >
782                Configure consent            </button>
783
784            <button
785                    @click="acceptNecessary"
786                    class="w-full bg-gray-900 text-white py-2 rounded hover:bg-black"
787            >
788                Accept all            </button>
789        </div>
790
791        <!-- SETTINGS MODAL -->
792        <div
793                x-show="showSettings"
794                x-transition
795                class="fixed inset-0 flex items-center justify-center bg-black/70 z-[9100]"
796        >
797            <div class="bg-white max-w-md w-full rounded-lg shadow-xl p-6">
798
799                <h2 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-4 text-center">
800                    Cookie settings
801                </h2>
802
803                <div class="space-y-4 text-sm text-gray-700">
804
805                    <!-- Necessary -->
806                    <div>
807                        <label class="flex items-center gap-2 font-medium">
808                            <input type="checkbox" checked disabled class="rounded">
809                            Necessary
810                        </label>
811
812                        <p class="mt-2">
813                            These necessary cookies are required to enable the core functionality of the website. Opting out of these cookies is not possible.                        </p>
814
815                        <details class="mt-2 text-sm">
816                            <summary class="cursor-pointer">cb-enable</summary>
817                            <div class="mt-1 text-gray-600">
818                                This cookie stores the user's cookie consent status for the current domain. Expiry: 1 year.                            </div>
819                        </details>
820
821                        <details class="mt-2 text-sm">
822                            <summary class="cursor-pointer">laravel_session</summary>
823                            <div class="mt-1 text-gray-600">
824                                Stores the session ID to recognize the user when the page reloads and to restore their login session. Expiry: 2 hours.                            </div>
825                        </details>
826
827                        <details class="mt-2 text-sm">
828                            <summary class="cursor-pointer">XSRF-TOKEN</summary>
829                            <div class="mt-1 text-gray-600">
830                                Provides CSRF protection for forms. Expiry: 2 hours.                            </div>
831                        </details>
832                    </div>
833
834                </div>
835
836                <div class="flex justify-between items-center mt-6">
837
838                    <a href="./privacy-policy" class="text-sm text-gray-600 hover:underline">
839                        Privacy Policy
840                    </a>
841
842                    <button
843                            @click="acceptNecessary"
844                            class="bg-gray-900 text-white px-4 py-2 rounded hover:bg-black"
845                    >
846                        Accept
847                    </button>
848
849                </div>
850
851            </div>
852        </div>
853
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895                    alt="BRAIN FREEZE: The economic costs of restricting international STEM students"
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904                BRAIN FREEZE: The economic costs of restricting international STEM students
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909                    IZA@LISER Network
910                                            | September 22, 2026
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915                            Proposed policy restrictions on foreign STEM graduates could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions of dollars annually.
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918                
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920                    <p style="margin-left:0in; margin-right:0in">The United States has long relied on international students as a key source of talent in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), particularly at the graduate level. Today, international students account for roughly half of all STEM graduate enrollments, while foreign-born workers make up nearly one-third of the high-skill STEM workforce.</p>
921
922<p style="margin-left:0in; margin-right:0in"><strong>Proposed policy changes affecting international STEM students</strong></p>
923
924<p style="margin-left:0in; margin-right:0in">A recent <a href="https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/18548/brain-freeze-how-international-student-exclusion-will-shape-the-stem-workforce-and-economic-growth-in-the-united-states">IZA Discussion Paper</a> by <a href="https://www.iza.org/person/4270/michael-a-clemens">Michael A. Clemens</a>, <a href="https://ifp.org/author/jeremy-neufeld/">Jeremy Neufeld</a> and <a href="https://ifp.org/author/amy-nice/">Amy M. Nice</a>&nbsp;examines the long-term economic consequences of proposed federal policies that would substantially reduce the ability of the United States to attract and retain international STEM students. These proposals include rescinding Optional Practical Training (OPT), eliminating duration of status admissions, and changing H-1B visa allocations based on seniority, with or without $100,000 entry fees.&nbsp;<em>(Editor&lsquo;s note: Although a U.S. District Court vacated the original presidential proclamation on June 8, 2026, DHS revived the initiative on August 25, 2026, by proposing a formal $103,265 fee rule currently under public review.)</em></p>
925
926<p style="margin-left:0in; margin-right:0in"><strong>Beyond short-term economic effects</strong></p>
927
928<p style="margin-left:0in; margin-right:0in">While previous economic analyses have largely focused on short-term effects&mdash;such as the loss of tuition revenue or reduced consumer spending in college towns&mdash;the authors examine the broader, long-run impact of losing U.S.-trained high-skill foreign STEM workers as a productive factor in the economy.</p>
929
930<div class="container">
931<div class="enable-luminous-fast-follows enable-updated-hr-color markdown markdown-main-panel md-content stronger" dir="ltr" id="model-response-message-contentr_aba9545a6ba37aaf" style="--animation-duration:400ms; --fade-animation-function:ease-out">
932<h3><strong>Long-term economic scenarios</strong></h3>
933
934<p>The paper considers two plausible and generally conservative scenarios. In the first, a sustained one-third decline in foreign STEM graduates from U.S. institutions transitioning into the U.S. workforce could result either from the combined deterrent effects of multiple policy changes or from rescinding OPT alone. The authors estimate that such a decline would reduce the overall STEM workforce by around 6 percent, with losses exceeding 11 percent among Ph.D.-level workers. These reductions would weaken the nation&#39;s innovative capacity and, through well-documented productivity effects, reduce long-term GDP growth, with resulting long-run GDP losses estimated at $240 to $481 billion annually within ten years.</p>
935
936<p>The second scenario examines a one-tenth decline in foreign STEM graduates entering the U.S. workforce, reflecting the potential impact of individual policy changes such as eliminating duration of status admissions or restricting H-1B visas. If only one of the proposed restrictions were implemented and the number of U.S.-trained high-skill foreign STEM workers contributing to the U.S. economy declined by around one-tenth, the corresponding long-run GDP losses within ten years are estimated at $72 to $145 billion annually. Even under this more moderate scenario, the economic consequences would be substantial.</p>
937
938<p><strong>No easy substitution effects</strong></p>
939
940<p>The available evidence suggests that these losses would not be quickly offset by increased participation from U.S.-born workers or foreign-trained workers abroad. Instead, restricting the pipeline of U.S.-trained international graduates would erode America&#39;s comparative advantage in innovation, weaken regional technology clusters, and slow entrepreneurial activity. According to the best available economic research, international education is the primary entry pathway for high-skill STEM immigrants into the U.S. workforce, and the cumulative economic costs of such restrictions would amount to hundreds of billions of dollars annually within a decade.</p>
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1222                                    <a href="/en/about-us" class="flex items-center gap-3 group cursor-pointer">
1223                        <b class="tracking-[0.03em]">About IZA@LISER Network</b>
1224                        <div class="relative h-[34px] w-[34px]">
1225                            <img src="https://www.iza.org/vendor/iza/img/arrow-button-black.svg"
1226                                 class="absolute inset-0 m-auto h-full w-full object-contain">
1227                        </div>
1228                    </a>
1229                
1230
1231                <div class="mt-4">
1232                    <b class="tracking-[0.03em] block mb-2">Contact</b>
1233
1234                    <div class="flex gap-8">
1235
1236                        <div class="flex-1">
1237                            <span class="text-[11px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wider text-black">IZA@LISER NETWORK (Current Site Operator):</span>
1238                            <p class="mt-1 text-[13px] leading-[19px] tracking-[0.03em] font-inter">
1239                                Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) <br>
1240                                11, Porte des Sciences<br>Maison des Sciences Humaines<br>
1241                                L-4366 Esch-sur-Alzette / Belval, Luxembourg
1242                            </p>
1243                        </div>
1244
1245                        <div class="flex-1">
1246                            <span class="text-[11px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wider text-black">IZA Institute (In Liquidation):</span>
1247                            <p class="mt-1 text-[13px] leading-[19px] tracking-[0.03em] font-inter">
1248                                Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH i. L.<br>
1249                                Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 5-9, 53113 Bonn. Germany<br>
1250                                Phone: +49 228 3894-0 | Fax: +49 228 3894-510<br>
1251                                E-Mail: [email protected] | Web: www.iza.org<br>
1252                                Represented by: Martin T. Clemens (Liquidator)<br>
1253                            </p>
1254                        </div>
1255
1256                    </div>
1257                </div>
1258
1259            </div>
1260
1261
1262            
1263            <div class="flex-1 pl-14 flex flex-col justify-between">
1264
1265                
1266                <div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-10 py-10 border-b border-[#e4e4e6]">
1267                                            <div class="flex flex-col gap-2">
1268                            <div class="text-[16px] font-semibold tracking-[0.03em]">
1269                                Communications
1270                            </div>
1271
1272                            <div class="text-[14px] tracking-[0.03em]">
1273                                Mark Fallak
1274                            </div>
1275
1276                            <a href="mailto:[email protected]"
1277                               class="underline text-[14px] tracking-[0.03em]">
1278                                [email protected]
1279                            </a>
1280
1281                                                            <div class="text-[14px] tracking-[0.03em]">
1282                                    +352 585-855-526
1283                                </div>
1284                                                    </div>
1285                                            <div class="flex flex-col gap-2">
1286                            <div class="text-[16px] font-semibold tracking-[0.03em]">
1287                                World of Labour
1288                            </div>
1289
1290                            <div class="text-[14px] tracking-[0.03em]">
1291                                Olga Nottmeyer
1292                            </div>
1293
1294                            <a href="mailto:[email protected]"
1295                               class="underline text-[14px] tracking-[0.03em]">
1296                                [email protected]
1297                            </a>
1298
1299                                                            <div class="text-[14px] tracking-[0.03em]">
1300                                    +352 585-855-501
1301                                </div>
1302                                                    </div>
1303                                            <div class="flex flex-col gap-2">
1304                            <div class="text-[16px] font-semibold tracking-[0.03em]">
1305                                Network Coordination
1306                            </div>
1307
1308                            <div class="text-[14px] tracking-[0.03em]">
1309                                Christina Gathmann
1310                            </div>
1311
1312                            <a href="mailto:[email protected]"
1313                               class="underline text-[14px] tracking-[0.03em]">
1314                                [email protected]
1315                            </a>
1316
1317                                                    </div>
1318                                    </div>
1319
1320                
1321                <div class="h-[81px] flex items-center justify-end pr-10">
1322                    <div class="flex items-center gap-6">
1323
1324                        <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/iza/"
1325                           class="h-[18px] w-[18px] hover:opacity-80">
1326                            <svg class="h-full w-full" viewBox="0 0 18 18" fill="currentColor" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
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1328<path d="M17.7826 8.91183C17.7826 13.8338 13.8018 17.8237 8.89108 17.8237C3.98078 17.8232 0 13.8333 0 8.91183C0 3.98987 3.98078 0 8.89153 
13280C13.8023 0 17.7826 3.98987 17.7826 8.91183Z" fill="#121214"/>
1329<path d="M5.99484 6.88944C6.62734 6.88944 7.14007 6.37553 7.14007 5.74159C7.14007 5.10766 6.62734 4.59375 5.99484 4.59375C5.36235 4.59375 4.84961 5.10766 4.84961 5.74159C4.84961 6.37553 5.36235 6.88944 5.99484 6.88944Z" fill="white"/>
1330<path d="M6.86244 7.64844H5.12571C5.07853 7.64844 5.04028 7.68679 5.04028 7.73411V13.3015C5.04028 13.3489 5.07853 13.3872 5.12571 13.3872H6.86244C6.90962 13.3872 6.94786 13.3489 6.94786 13.3015V7.73411C6.94786 7.68679 6.90962 7.64844 6.86244 7.64844Z" fill="white"/>
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1332</svg>
1333
1334    </svg>
1335                        </a>
1336
1337                        <a target="_blank" href="https://www.facebook.com/IZABonn"
1338                           class="h-[18px] w-[18px] hover:opacity-80">
1339                            <svg class="h-full w-full" viewBox="0 0 18 18" fill="currentColor" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
1340                <svg width="18" height="18" viewBox="0 0 18 18" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
1341<path d="M17.7826 8.91183C17.7826 13.8338 13.8018 17.8237 8.89108 17.8237C3.98078 17.8232 0 13.8333 0 8.91183C0 3.98987 3.98078 0 8.89153 0C13.8023 0 17.7831 3.98987 17.7831 8.91183H17.7826Z" fill="#121214"/>
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1343</svg>
1344
1345    </svg>
1346                        </a>
1347
1348                    </div>
1349                </div>
1350
1351            </div>
1352
1353        </div>
1354
1355    </div>
1356
1357
1358    
1359    <div class="w-full bg-[#020617] text-white py-4">
1360        <div class="max-w-[1440px] mx-auto px-5 flex flex-col items-center justify-center gap-3 sm:flex-row sm:gap-8 text-[13px] tracking-[0.03em] text-center">
1361                                                <a href="/privacy-policy" class="hover:underline">
1362                        IZA@LISER Privacy Policy
1363                    </a>
1364                                                                <a href="https://www.iza.org/terms-and-conditions-of-use" class="hover:underline">
1365                        Terms and Conditions of Use
1366                    </a>
1367                                                                <a href="/legal-notice" class="hover:underline">
1368                        Legal Notice
1369                    </a>
1370                                    </div>
1371    </div>
1372</div>
1373
1374
1375<script>
1376    (function () {
1377        try {
1378            var params = new URLSearchParams(window.location.search);
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1383                while (el && el !== document.documentElement) {
1384                    if (el.tagName && el.tagName.toLowerCase() === 'a' && el.getAttribute('href')) return el;
1385                    el = el.parentElement;
1386                }
1387                return null;
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1389
1390            document.addEventListener('click', function (e) {
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1392                if (!a) return;
1393
1394                var href = a.getAttribute('href');
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1396
1397                // Only handle same-origin navigations.
1398                var url;
1399                try { url = new URL(href, window.location.href); } catch (_e) { return; }
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1401
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vendor: 1 bytes, line 1416
1416
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Line numbers count LF bytes from the start of the resource, as the search results do. Vendor segments are library code the classifier recognised; they are stored but not indexed. Bytes are shown as Latin1 characters, one per byte.