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1<div class="d10cj85e"><div id=""><div class="a133dm9s"><div id="div-gpt-ad-cnyes_news_inside_all_top" class="a1mzdm1v" style="--a1mzdm1v-0:970px;--a1mzdm1v-1:250px;--a1mzdm1v-2:970px;--a1mzdm1v-3:250px;--a1mzdm1v-4:24px;--a1mzdm1v-5:24px;--a1mzdm1v-6:auto;--a1mzdm1v-7:auto"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="border-radius:6px;width:100%;height:100%">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><main class="v1hm61vt"><div class="c9ky432"><div class="hafnv4b"><a class="t4y0n8" href="/news/cat/headline"><img alt="home" loading="lazy" width="18" height="18" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Ficon-home.png&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 1x, /_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Ficon-home.png&amp;w=48&amp;q=75 2x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Ficon-home.png&amp;w=48&amp;q=75"/><p> 新聞</p></a><div class="ti5goar"><img alt="arrow" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/arrows/symbol-icon-arrow-right.svg"/><a class="name t4y0n8" href="/poptopic">熱門時事</a></div></div><div id="poptopic" class="s1u894o8"><div class="dhonmwk"><section class="cf7eh58"><div class="vg9xh0y"><h1 class="hnhigwh">熱門時事</h1><div class="v15hxnri"></div><p class="a2k1s4l"><img alt="fire" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Ficon-fire.png&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 1x, /_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Ficon-fire.png&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 2x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Ficon-fire.png&amp;w=64&amp;q=75"/>快速掌握近期熱門話題</p></div><div class="sueffa"><button style="left:-11px" id="left-arrow-touch" class="a5newwo"><img alt="arrow back" loading="lazy" width="36" height="36" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/symbol-icon-prev.svg"/></button><div class="slick-slider slick-initialized" dir="ltr"><button type="button" data-role="none" class="slick-arrow slick-prev" style="display:block"> <!-- -->Previous</button><div class="slick-list"><div class="slick-track" style="width:700%;left:-100%"><div data-index="-1" tabindex="-1" class="slick-slide slick-cloned" aria-hidden="true" style="width:14.285714285714286%"><div>
1<div style="--p1ppj68-0:#f6f8fc;--p1ppj68-1:0 0 6px 0 rgba(0, 47, 143, 0.1);--p1ppj68-2:640px;margin:0px 8px" class="p1ppj68"><img alt="ribbons" loading="lazy" width="77" height="84" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="r166uj18" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/label-ribbons.png"/><div class="t1ac3lzm" style="--t1ac3lzm-0:url(/assets/images/news_default_images/1.webp)"><div class="b114cned"></div><div class="t1mmubal"><div class="t1ajqf7"><h3 class="hkelhgw" style="--hkelhgw-0:28px"><a href="/poptopic/269">【AI放緩論】5000億美元的噪音</a></h3><button aria-label="follow" style="--b1hnyx5d-0:#fff;--b1hnyx5d-1:1px solid #e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-2:#e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-3:url(&#x27;/assets/icons/icon-add-check.svg&#x27;)" class="b1hnyx5d">追蹤</button></div><div class="s1a7rr2i"><p>9月14日,軟銀集團收盤大跌11%,費城半導體指數下跌近6%,SK海力士跌7.6%,阿斯麥跌7.25%,輝達跌3.4%、英特爾、美光跌超5%,康寧暴跌13.74%,Coherent跌超12%。</p>
2
3<p>初步統計顯示,全球半導體和AI算力硬體產業鏈總市值一夜之間蒸發超5000億美元。</p>
4
5<p>引發這場拋售的,是三個人在週末說了幾句話。</p>
6
7<p><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>放緩論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong></p>
8
9<p>Anthropic CEO阿莫代伊發布長文《我們必須為前沿定速》,主張以第三方&ldquo;員工級&rdquo;系統訪問等手段放緩最強模型迭代; OpenAI CEO奧爾特曼公開呼應&ldquo;同意定速前沿&rdquo;,並明確2026年不推進IPO; 馬斯克轉評&ldquo;達里奧說得對&rdquo;。</p>
10
11<p>三個人,幾句話,5000億美元一夜蒸發。</p>
12
13<p>首先要釐清一個最基本的事實:阿莫代伊等人擔憂的AI風險,和當下絕大多數AI產業、絕大多數國家的AI發展,根本不在同一個維度上。</p>
14
15<p>他們談論的風險,是最前沿極限模型的湧現性風險&mdash;&mdash;是AI智能體自主突破沙盒、主動發起網路攻擊、遞迴自我改進帶來的失控可能。</p>
16
17<p>這種風險只存在於OpenAI、Anthropic少數幾家實驗室的最頂尖測試環境中,是人類摸到智能邊界時的前沿焦慮,屬於超遠期的尾部風險。</p>
18
19<p>如果只把這場爭論當成技術安全問題,那就看得太淺了。</p>
20
21<p>這套邏輯的底層,其實和當年核不擴散體系的誕生幾乎沒什麼區別:領跑者先掌握了顛覆性技術,一邊擔憂技術反噬自身,一邊又怕對手追平力量格局,於是就用&ldquo;全球公共安全&rdquo;的名義,建立一套固化自身優勢的管控規則。</p>
22
23<p>今天的AI放緩論,美國頭部實驗室率先摸到了前沿AI的能力邊界,現在提出要建立&ldquo;高危閾值標準&rdquo;&ldquo;第三方獨立審計&rdquo;&ldquo;全球協同限速&rdquo;,名義是防範AI失控災難,實際效果必然是&mdash;&mdash;由美國定義什麼是&ldquo;高危&rdquo;,由美國主導審核權,誰摸到了這條線,誰就要接受限制、放慢腳步。</p>
24
25<p>這也是為什麼追趕者天然對這套敘事保持警惕的原因。當你的模型能力距離高危閾值還有很遠的時候,接受這套規則等於單方面自廢武功。AI治理從來就不是單純的技術問題,本質更是大國博弈的工具。在這種格局下,指望全球形成統一的AI減速共識,無異於天方夜譚。</p>
26
27<p><strong>世紀大和解?</strong><strong> </strong><strong>馬斯克奧特曼聯手踩剎車,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>取消上市:</strong><strong>AI </strong><strong>三巨頭在怕什麼?</strong></p>
28
29<p>當科技史上最水火不容的三位死對頭突然坐在同一張長椅上、以完全相同的口吻呼籲&ldquo;給 AI 踩剎車&rdquo;時,全人類應該感到欣慰,還是後背發涼? 2026 年 9 月 12 日至 16 日,全球人工智慧產業迎來了一場戲劇性拉滿的&ldquo;世紀大地震&rdquo;:Anthropic 首席執行官達里奧&middot;
29阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)發表了一篇長達 3,800 字的警世長文《我們必須為前沿技術設定節奏》(We Must Pace the Frontier),嚴厲警告遞歸式自我改進(Recursive Self-Improvement)正在讓人工智慧脫離人類掌控,可能在未來 6 到 12 個月內引發無法逆轉的生存危機。</p>
30
31<p>如果這只是一家自詡&ldquo;對齊原教旨主義&rdquo;實驗室的常規悲鳴,輿論或許早已習以為常。 但戲劇性的一幕緊隨其後:正在法庭上與 OpenAI 瘋狂撕扯的 xAI 掌門人埃隆&middot;馬斯克(Elon Musk)罕見公開轉發並力挺:&ldquo;達里奧是對的(Dario is right)&rdquo;; 緊接著,OpenAI 首席執行官山姆&middot;奧特曼(Sam Altman)不僅全盤背書限速倡議,更在受訪時拋出一記震動全球資本市場的超級重磅炸彈:<strong>因前沿安全與治理考量,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>決定取消原定於</strong><strong> 2026 </strong><strong>年進行的首次公開募股(</strong><strong>IPO</strong><strong>)!</strong><strong> </strong>隨後,微軟納德拉與谷歌 DeepMind 哈薩比斯相繼發表聲援。</p>
32
33<p>一時間,全球科技股應聲巨震,納斯達克 AI 板塊估值虛火被當場扯下。 然而,就在主流媒體高呼&ldquo;矽谷巨頭終於良心發現拯救人類&rdquo;的同時,全球開源社區與反壟斷學者卻發出了尖銳的嘲弄:當燒了上千億美元的閉源巨頭發現算力撞牆、電網告急、千億估值無法兌現,且身後跟著步步緊逼的開源狼群時,&ldquo;以人類之名踩剎車&rdquo;,究竟是純粹的慈悲,還是一場教科書級別的合謀壟斷與監管俘獲?</p>
34
35<p><strong>黃仁勳駁斥</strong><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>末日論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong><strong>,特朗普電話助陣美國競速</strong></p>
36
37<p>2026年9月14日,洛杉磯All-In Summit現場。 輝達CEO黃仁勳正與Chamath、Jason、Sacks、Friedberg四位&ldquo;Besties&rdquo;深入對談,突然手機響起。 他接通並切到揚聲器,全場聽清了來電者的聲音&mdash;&mdash;美國總統特朗普。</p>
38
39<p>川普開場就調侃:&ldquo;你能設計世界上最複雜的晶片,卻搞不定免提。 &ldquo;隨即切入正題:&rdquo;機器人不會接管世界,AI也不會接管世界。 整件事都是騙局。 &ldquo;他強調數據中心&rdquo;太棒了,讓人和州都變富,是未來20-25年的石油&ldquo;,比互聯網更重要; 反對聲浪正中&ldquo;不想看到它發生的人&rdquo;下懷,可能是政客,也可能是中國。 &ldquo;我們不會讓那發生。&rdquo;</p>
40
41<p>黃仁勳回應:&ldquo;我們不會讓那發生,先生。 我們要確保美國AI競賽中人人都贏&mdash;&mdash;每個產業、每家公司、每個州、每一個人。 &ldquo;現場掌聲雷動。&nbsp;</p>
42
43<p>這通突如其來的電話,把近期愈演愈烈的&ldquo;AI末日論&rdquo;爭論推到了聚光燈下。</p>
44
45<p>末日敘事的源頭與黃仁勳的拆解</p>
46
47<p>兩週前,比爾&middot;蓋茲發布一篇長文,對AI時代的動盪和危機發出了嚴厲的警告。</p>
48
49<p>上週末,Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei發布長文《We Must Pace the Frontier》,呼籲前沿實驗室協調放緩能力提升的速度。 理由包括:AI開始幫助構建下一代AI(遞迴自我改進,RSI),以及OpenAI測試中的代理&ldquo;失控&rdquo;攻擊Hugging Face等事件。 他主張第三方評估者深度嵌入實驗室、行業標準和全球協調,部分得到Sam Altman、Elon Musk等人的呼應。 此前Anthropic研究員Jacob Coxon離職警告,另有聲音稱未來十年AI滅絕人類概率超10%。 市場隨之震盪,晶片股承壓,網路安全股卻大漲。</p>
50
51<p>黃仁勳的回應清晰而鋒利。 他首先肯定安全&ldquo;至關重要&rdquo;,吹哨者勇氣可嘉&mdash;&mdash;Coxon公開表達擔憂需要勇氣。 但他把兩件事嚴格分開:內部真實問題的舉報是正當的; 對未來做出&ldquo;科學預測&rdquo;卻不是。 &ldquo;那些預測雖然出自科學家之口,卻沒有建立在科學上...... 這個數字是編出ä¾
51†çš„。 這些人受過良好教育,被稱為研究人員,也在實驗室工作。 把這些詞放在一起,再拋出一個預測,聽起來就很驚人、很可怕,但不應該這樣做,這是不負責任的。 &rdquo;</p>
52
53<p>他逐一清算過去幾年被證偽的預言:有人說五年內放射科醫生將被AI完全取代,結果需求反而更高,AI只是輔助讀片; 有人預測6-12個月內90%代碼由AI生成、6-9個月內50%初級崗位消失、白領崗位明年減半、GPT-2和Llama 3太危險不能發布...... 這些統統落空。 &ldquo;必須有人對這些愚蠢的預測負責。&rdquo; 真正基於科學與證據的方向,恰恰與恐慌相反。</p>
54
55<p>對RSI,他去神祕化:它不過是上下文學習、技能、反思、強化學習、合成數據、LoRA微調等常規方法的集合。 公司內部可以持續做,但發布前必須評估、測試、檢查回退。 實驗室從研究轉向工程後,控制力會通過方法、工具和實踐增強。 &ldquo;當然不(會失控)。&rdquo;</p>
56
57<p><strong>超級智能已至,但在窄域</strong></p>
58
59<p>黃仁勳更進一步:&ldquo;我認為我們已經到了(AGI)。 &hellip;&hellip; 超級智能也是。 &ldquo;他給出具體定義:自動駕駛不需要給你煎蛋,只要事故率是人類的十分之一,那就是超級智能; 蛋白質合成與虛擬篩選領域,AI已超人類。 窄域超級智能不是科幻終點,而是正在發生的現實。</p>
60
61<p>這與他一貫的工程視角一致。 安全與領先不是二選一。 美國可以既快又安全地領導。 真正的問題集中在擁有最多算力的前沿實驗室&mdash;&mdash;危險先出現在那裡合理。 正確做法是根因分析、更好的沙箱、監控與第三方評估(類似金融審計),而不是用籠統末日敘事踩剎車。 如果某實驗室真失控,其他工程師可以進去幫忙; 但他懷疑這些頂尖團隊最終能自己解決。</p>
62
63<p><strong>今天的</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>,正處在經濟價值逐步兌現的早期階段。</strong></p>
64
65<p>IDC預測2026年全球企業AI支出將達到9400億美元,到2029年增長至2.1萬億美元。 這不是炒概念的估值,是實實在在的企業開支、產業投入。</p>
66
67<p>AI產業的基本盤,是嵌入到製造業、醫療、金融、能源、國防所有領域的生產力底座。 社會發展的內生需求,決定了AI只會越用越廣、越用越深,不可能因為頂層的安全爭議就整體停滯。</p>
68
69<p>很多人混淆了兩件事:前沿基礎模型的極限能力爬坡,和AI全產業的落地普及,是兩條完全不同的賽道。哪怕最頂尖的模型真的放緩了能力迭代,整個AI產業鏈的增長邏輯也不會受到根本影響。</p>
70
71<p>就像當年晶片製程衝到3nm、2nm遇到瓶頸,但全球數字經濟的增長並沒有因此停下,反而在應用層面開出了更多花。對追趕者來說更是如此。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/AI放緩論" title="AI放緩論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI放緩論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI末日論" title="AI末日論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI末日論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI減速" title="AI減速" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI減速</span></a><a href="/tag/資本投入" title="資本投入" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>資本投入</span></a><a href="/tag/奧特曼" title="奧特曼" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>奧特曼</span></a><a href="/tag/放緩" title="放緩" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>放緩</span></a><a href="/tag/AI風險" title="AI風險" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 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72
73<p>本次峰會為雙方管理地緣與經貿風險的關鍵平台。在經貿與科技層面,兩國聚焦關稅減免、大宗採購、AI算力管制與關鍵礦物供應等議題。雙方團隊已推動成立「中美貿易委員會」,並建立 AI 安全對話機制以管控技術風險。在安全領域,台灣議題仍是北京不可逾越的紅線,對台軍售案與台海局勢成為外交博弈焦點。</p>
74
75<p>整體而言,峰會反映美中關係正從美國單極霸權轉向「談判雙極」的管控制度。雙方試圖在零和競爭中建立防範衝突的護欄,達成「管理型穩定」,而非戰略性緩和。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/川習會" title="川習會" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>川習會</span></a><a href="/tag/川普" title="川普" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>川普</span></a><a href="/tag/習近平" title="習近平" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>習近平</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="cxebglh"><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關新聞" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-hot-news.svg"/><span>相關新聞</span><a class="rqwyzr9" href="/poptopic/271">看更多<img alt="Next" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75 1x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75"/></a></div><div class="cn8s3o7" style="--cn8s3o7-0:16px;--cn8s3o7-1:0px"><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/1"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/2"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/3"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/4"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="l1a1dqu7" style="--l1a1dqu7-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關行情" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-relate-product.
75svg"/><span>相關行情</span></div><div class="n1jgsfi4">#目前無相關行情資料</div></div></div></div></div></div><div data-index="1" class="slick-slide" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true" style="outline:none;width:14.285714285714286%"><div><div style="--p1ppj68-0:#f6f8fc;--p1ppj68-1:0 0 6px 0 rgba(0, 47, 143, 0.1);--p1ppj68-2:640px;margin:0px 8px" class="p1ppj68"><img alt="ribbons" loading="lazy" width="77" height="84" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="r166uj18" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/label-ribbons.png"/><div class="t1ac3lzm" style="--t1ac3lzm-0:url(/assets/images/news_default_images/1.webp)"><div class="b114cned"></div><div class="t1mmubal"><div class="t1ajqf7"><h3 class="hkelhgw" style="--hkelhgw-0:28px"><a href="/poptopic/270">Fed以12票全數通過升息一碼  3年來首度!料12月再升息一碼</a></h3><button aria-label="follow" style="--b1hnyx5d-0:#fff;--b1hnyx5d-1:1px solid #e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-2:#e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-3:url(&#x27;/assets/icons/icon-add-check.svg&#x27;)" class="b1hnyx5d">追蹤</button></div><div class="s1a7rr2i"><p>美國聯準會(Fed) 週三 (9/16)召開聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議,以 12 票對 0 票通過升息一碼決議,符合市場普遍預期。儘管官員會前釋出的政策訊息一度分歧,市場仍已反映超過 90% 的升息機率。會議將聯邦資金利率目標區間上調至 3.75% 至 4.00%。這是央行自 2023 年 7 月以來的首次升息紀錄,也是新任主席華許 (Kevin Warsh) 接掌 Fed 後的首度政策調升。最新利率點狀圖顯示,多數官員預估今年底利率將升至 4% 至 4.25%,意味年內仍可能再升息 1 碼。</p>
76
77<p>FOMC 在會後聲明中表示:「通膨仍處於高檔。今天的政策行動將有助於通膨更及時回到委員會的 2% 目標。委員會將實現物價穩定。」</p>
78
79<p><em><strong>點狀圖暗示年內可能再升1碼</strong></em></p>
80
81<p>Fed 同步公布的最新經濟預測顯示,18 名與會官員中,有 16 人預期今年至少還會升息 1 次,其中 4 人認為可能再升息 2 次;另有 2 人預期本次升息後便停止升息。</p>
82
83<p>Fed 主席華許自上任後選擇不提交個人利率預測,因此未列入點狀圖。</p>
84
85<p>至於後續政策路徑,官員並未預估 2027 年之後繼續升息,而是預期 2028 年降息 1 次,2029 年至少再降息 1 次。</p>
86
87<p>不過,2027 年的政策展望仍存在明顯分歧。8 名官員預期當年還會升息,6 人認為利率將維持不變,另有 4 人預估降息。</p>
88
89<p><em><strong>通膨預測上修 估2029年才回到目標</strong></em></p>
90
91<p>Fed小幅上調今年通膨預測,預估整體個人消費支出 (PCE) 物價指數為 3.7%,剔除食品與能源的核心 PCE 為 3.4%,兩者均較 6 月預測提高 0.1 個百分點。</p>
92
93<p>Fed預估,2027 年整體 PCE 通膨率將降至 2.3%,核心 PCE 則降至 2.5%,但通膨要到 2029 年才會回到 2% 目標。</p>
94
95<p>這次升息的背景不同於典型緊縮循環。伊朗戰爭推升燃料價格,加上關稅影響持續發酵,這類供給面造成的通膨通常不會促使Fed立即採取行動。</p>
96
97<p>然而,官員擔心能源價格若長時間維持高檔,可能推升通膨預期,並逐步擴散至其他商品與服務。經濟學家也認為,人工智慧 (AI) 投資持續擴大,可能成為另一項通膨因素。Fed同時將失業率預測由 6 月估計的 4.3%下調至 4.1%,反映勞動市場趨於穩定,也提高決策官員採取升息行動的空間。</p>
98
99<p>官員亦記取新冠疫情後誤判通膨為「暫時性」的經驗。當時Fed預期供需失衡造成的物價壓力將自行消退,實際上通膨其後升至 40 年高點,Fed才開始收緊政策。</p>
100
101<p><strong>Fed 9月聲明全文+最新經濟預測</strong></p>
102
103<p>&nbsp;</p>
104
105<p>Fed表示,美國經濟活動持續以穩健步調擴張。儘管地緣政治情勢等因素使經濟前景仍籠罩高度不確定性,但國內支出保持韌性,生產力成長強勁,企業資本投資也相當熱絡。</p>
106
107<p>勞動市場方面,Fed指出,新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率則變化不大,顯示就業市場目前仍大致維持穩定。</p>
108
109<p>Fed坦言,通膨依然偏高,這次升息將有助於使通膨更快回到2%目標,並以「委員會將實現物價穩定」的強硬措辭,展現持續對抗通膨的決心。此外,Fed將繼續維持銀行體系準備金充裕的政策。</p>
110
111<p><strong>Fed 9月、7月聲明比一比:從按兵不動轉向升息</strong></p>
112
113<p>&nbsp;</p>
114
115<p>Fed前次會議決定維持利率不變,本次則改為升息1碼,並新增<em>「今日的政策行動將有助於讓通膨更及時地回到2%目標」</em>的說法,顯示官員認為有必要透過進一步緊縮政策,加快壓低通膨的速度。</p>
116
117<p>聲明最後更直接表示,「委員會將實現物價穩定」,語氣明顯強於過去常見的「致力讓通膨回到2%目標」。<em>這項修改凸顯Fed希望向市場傳達明確訊息,即使部分物價壓力源自政策難以左右的外部因素,央行仍將採取行動控制通膨。</em></p>
118
119<p><strong>刪除中東衝突與供給衝擊說法</strong></p>
120
121<p>在經濟評估方面,Fed仍認為經濟活動正以穩健步調擴張,但不再直接將高度不確定性歸因於「中東衝突」,而是改以範圍更廣的「地緣政治發展」描述,同時新增美國國內支出保持韌性的說法。</p>
122
123<p>Fed也維持生產力成長強勁的評估,並將資本投資由「強勁」改稱「穩健」。至於<em>勞動市場,聲明並未出現明顯變化</em>,仍稱新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率也變化不大。</p>
124
125<p>通膨段落的變化更加值得注意。前次聲明指出,通膨偏高部分反映供給衝擊推升能源等特定領域的價格;本次則完全刪除這項解釋,僅保留「通膨仍處高檔」,隨即強調升息有助於使通膨更快回到2%。</p>
126
127<p>這項調整顯示,<em>Fed不再著重說明通膨是由能源與供應面衝擊造成,而是將論述重心轉向央行必須採取的政策行動,淡化外部因素可能只是暫時推高物價的意味。</em></p>
128
129<p><strong>
129三張反對票消失 Fed恢復全票共識</strong></p>
130
131<p>表決結果也反映Fed內部立場出現整合。前次會議以9票贊成、3票反對通過按兵不動的決策,反對者哈瑪克(Beth Hammack)、卡什卡里(Neel Kashkari)與蘿根(Lorie Logan)當時均主張升息1碼。</p>
132
133<p>隨著Fed本次採取3人先前主張的升息行動,決策獲得12票一致支持,反對票全部消失。這顯示在經濟保持韌性、通膨仍然偏高的背景下,Fed官員已對進一步收緊貨幣政策形成高度共識。</p>
134
135<p><strong>Fed升息1碼惹怒川普 喊話利率應降至1%以下</strong></p>
136
137<p>聯準會 (Fed) 週三 (16 日) 宣布2023年以來首次升息後,美國總統川普隨即要求央行迅速將利率降至1%或更低。白宮亦批評這項決定「相當令人遺憾」,認為升息缺乏充分的經濟依據,但未直接批評Fed主席華許。</p>
138
139<p>川普會後在Truth Social發文表示,美國利率「應該降至1%或更低」,理由是美國擁有全球最佳信用。他並以全大寫文字要求:「為美國降低利率,而且要快!」</p>
140
141<p>川普聲稱,美國正在支撐全球多數國家,這種情況不能繼續下去。他並以美國吸引大量新增投資,以及對許多國家存在貿易逆差為由,主張美國應適用更低利率。</p>
142
143<p>白宮發言人德賽 (Kush Desai) 接受福斯新聞訪問時表示,川普已清楚說明希望利率朝哪個方向移動,而Fed當天決定升息,從政府立場來看「相當令人遺憾」,也缺乏特別有力的經濟依據。</p>
144
145<p>德賽指出,目前並非拜登政府時期,川普與共和黨沒有投入數兆美元的新冠疫情刺激支出,因此不存在需要透過提高利率加以抑制的失控總需求。</p>
146
147<p>儘管白宮反對這次升息,德賽仍表示,川普相信Fed應保持獨立,但這不影響總統在認為政策出現問題時公開表達意見的權利。</p>
148
149<p>川普近期已重新加大對Fed的施壓力道。不到兩週前,他曾警告,如果Fed不降息,可能停止與對美國享有貿易順差的國家進行貿易,涉及美國多數主要貿易夥伴及其他數十個國家。</p>
150
151<p>不過,川普與白宮官員目前仍未直接抨擊由川普任命的華許。華許接替鮑爾出任Fed主席後,川普對央行的公開施壓一度減弱,如今情況可能隨著Fed轉向升息而改變,華許也將面臨更大的白宮政治壓力。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/華許" title="華許" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>華許</span></a><a href="/tag/聯準會" title="聯準會" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>聯準會</span></a><a href="/tag/Fed" title="Fed" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>Fed</span></a><a href="/tag/FOMC" title="FOMC" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>FOMC</span></a><a href="/tag/升息" title="升息" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>升息</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="cxebglh"><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關新聞" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-hot-news.svg"/><span>相關新聞</span><a class="rqwyzr9" href="/poptopic/270">看更多<img alt="Next" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75 1x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75"/></a></div><div class="cn8s3o7" style="--cn8s3o7-0:16px;--cn8s3o7-1:0px"><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/1"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/2"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/3"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/4"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="l1a1dqu7" style="--l1a1dqu7-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關行情" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-relate-product.
151svg"/><span>相關行情</span></div><div class="n1jgsfi4">#目前無相關行情資料</div></div></div></div></div></div><div data-index="2" class="slick-slide" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true" style="outline:none;width:14.285714285714286%"><div><div style="--p1ppj68-0:#f6f8fc;--p1ppj68-1:0 0 6px 0 rgba(0, 47, 143, 0.1);--p1ppj68-2:640px;margin:0px 8px" class="p1ppj68"><img alt="ribbons" loading="lazy" width="77" height="84" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="r166uj18" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/label-ribbons.png"/><div class="t1ac3lzm" style="--t1ac3lzm-0:url(/assets/images/news_default_images/1.webp)"><div class="b114cned"></div><div class="t1mmubal"><div class="t1ajqf7"><h3 class="hkelhgw" style="--hkelhgw-0:28px"><a href="/poptopic/269">【AI放緩論】5000億美元的噪音</a></h3><button aria-label="follow" style="--b1hnyx5d-0:#fff;--b1hnyx5d-1:1px solid #e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-2:#e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-3:url(&#x27;/assets/icons/icon-add-check.svg&#x27;)" class="b1hnyx5d">追蹤</button></div><div class="s1a7rr2i"><p>9月14日,軟銀集團收盤大跌11%,費城半導體指數下跌近6%,SK海力士跌7.6%,阿斯麥跌7.25%,輝達跌3.4%、英特爾、美光跌超5%,康寧暴跌13.74%,Coherent跌超12%。</p>
152
153<p>初步統計顯示,全球半導體和AI算力硬體產業鏈總市值一夜之間蒸發超5000億美元。</p>
154
155<p>引發這場拋售的,是三個人在週末說了幾句話。</p>
156
157<p><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>放緩論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong></p>
158
159<p>Anthropic CEO阿莫代伊發布長文《我們必須為前沿定速》,主張以第三方&ldquo;員工級&rdquo;系統訪問等手段放緩最強模型迭代; OpenAI CEO奧爾特曼公開呼應&ldquo;同意定速前沿&rdquo;,並明確2026年不推進IPO; 馬斯克轉評&ldquo;達里奧說得對&rdquo;。</p>
160
161<p>三個人,幾句話,5000億美元一夜蒸發。</p>
162
163<p>首先要釐清一個最基本的事實:阿莫代伊等人擔憂的AI風險,和當下絕大多數AI產業、絕大多數國家的AI發展,根本不在同一個維度上。</p>
164
165<p>他們談論的風險,是最前沿極限模型的湧現性風險&mdash;&mdash;是AI智能體自主突破沙盒、主動發起網路攻擊、遞迴自我改進帶來的失控可能。</p>
166
167<p>這種風險只存在於OpenAI、Anthropic少數幾家實驗室的最頂尖測試環境中,是人類摸到智能邊界時的前沿焦慮,屬於超遠期的尾部風險。</p>
168
169<p>如果只把這場爭論當成技術安全問題,那就看得太淺了。</p>
170
171<p>這套邏輯的底層,其實和當年核不擴散體系的誕生幾乎沒什麼區別:領跑者先掌握了顛覆性技術,一邊擔憂技術反噬自身,一邊又怕對手追平力量格局,於是就用&ldquo;全球公共安全&rdquo;的名義,建立一套固化自身優勢的管控規則。</p>
172
173<p>今天的AI放緩論,美國頭部實驗室率先摸到了前沿AI的能力邊界,現在提出要建立&ldquo;高危閾值標準&rdquo;&ldquo;第三方獨立審計&rdquo;&ldquo;全球協同限速&rdquo;,名義是防範AI失控災難,實際效果必然是&mdash;&mdash;由美國定義什麼是&ldquo;高危&rdquo;,由美國主導審核權,誰摸到了這條線,誰就要接受限制、放慢腳步。</p>
174
175<p>這也是為什麼追趕者天然對這套敘事保持警惕的原因。當你的模型能力距離高危閾值還有很遠的時候,接受這套規則等於單方面自廢武功。AI治理從來就不是單純的技術問題,本質更是大國博弈的工具。在這種格局下,指望全球形成統一的AI減速共識,無異於天方夜譚。</p>
176
177<p><strong>世紀大和解?</strong><strong> </strong><strong>馬斯克奧特曼聯手踩剎車,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>取消上市:</strong><strong>AI </strong><strong>三巨頭在怕什麼?</strong></p>
178
179<p>當科技史上最水火不容的三位死對頭突然坐在同一張長椅上、以完全相同的口吻呼籲&ldquo;給 AI 踩剎車&rdquo;時,全人類應該感到欣慰,還是後背發涼? 2026 年 9 月 12 日至 16 日,全球人工智慧產業迎來了一場戲劇性拉滿的&ldquo;世紀大地震&rdquo;:Anthropic 首席執行官達里奧&middot;
179阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)發表了一篇長達 3,800 字的警世長文《我們必須為前沿技術設定節奏》(We Must Pace the Frontier),嚴厲警告遞歸式自我改進(Recursive Self-Improvement)正在讓人工智慧脫離人類掌控,可能在未來 6 到 12 個月內引發無法逆轉的生存危機。</p>
180
181<p>如果這只是一家自詡&ldquo;對齊原教旨主義&rdquo;實驗室的常規悲鳴,輿論或許早已習以為常。 但戲劇性的一幕緊隨其後:正在法庭上與 OpenAI 瘋狂撕扯的 xAI 掌門人埃隆&middot;馬斯克(Elon Musk)罕見公開轉發並力挺:&ldquo;達里奧是對的(Dario is right)&rdquo;; 緊接著,OpenAI 首席執行官山姆&middot;奧特曼(Sam Altman)不僅全盤背書限速倡議,更在受訪時拋出一記震動全球資本市場的超級重磅炸彈:<strong>因前沿安全與治理考量,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>決定取消原定於</strong><strong> 2026 </strong><strong>年進行的首次公開募股(</strong><strong>IPO</strong><strong>)!</strong><strong> </strong>隨後,微軟納德拉與谷歌 DeepMind 哈薩比斯相繼發表聲援。</p>
182
183<p>一時間,全球科技股應聲巨震,納斯達克 AI 板塊估值虛火被當場扯下。 然而,就在主流媒體高呼&ldquo;矽谷巨頭終於良心發現拯救人類&rdquo;的同時,全球開源社區與反壟斷學者卻發出了尖銳的嘲弄:當燒了上千億美元的閉源巨頭發現算力撞牆、電網告急、千億估值無法兌現,且身後跟著步步緊逼的開源狼群時,&ldquo;以人類之名踩剎車&rdquo;,究竟是純粹的慈悲,還是一場教科書級別的合謀壟斷與監管俘獲?</p>
184
185<p><strong>黃仁勳駁斥</strong><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>末日論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong><strong>,特朗普電話助陣美國競速</strong></p>
186
187<p>2026年9月14日,洛杉磯All-In Summit現場。 輝達CEO黃仁勳正與Chamath、Jason、Sacks、Friedberg四位&ldquo;Besties&rdquo;深入對談,突然手機響起。 他接通並切到揚聲器,全場聽清了來電者的聲音&mdash;&mdash;美國總統特朗普。</p>
188
189<p>川普開場就調侃:&ldquo;你能設計世界上最複雜的晶片,卻搞不定免提。 &ldquo;隨即切入正題:&rdquo;機器人不會接管世界,AI也不會接管世界。 整件事都是騙局。 &ldquo;他強調數據中心&rdquo;太棒了,讓人和州都變富,是未來20-25年的石油&ldquo;,比互聯網更重要; 反對聲浪正中&ldquo;不想看到它發生的人&rdquo;下懷,可能是政客,也可能是中國。 &ldquo;我們不會讓那發生。&rdquo;</p>
190
191<p>黃仁勳回應:&ldquo;我們不會讓那發生,先生。 我們要確保美國AI競賽中人人都贏&mdash;&mdash;每個產業、每家公司、每個州、每一個人。 &ldquo;現場掌聲雷動。&nbsp;</p>
192
193<p>這通突如其來的電話,把近期愈演愈烈的&ldquo;AI末日論&rdquo;爭論推到了聚光燈下。</p>
194
195<p>末日敘事的源頭與黃仁勳的拆解</p>
196
197<p>兩週前,比爾&middot;蓋茲發布一篇長文,對AI時代的動盪和危機發出了嚴厲的警告。</p>
198
199<p>上週末,Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei發布長文《We Must Pace the Frontier》,呼籲前沿實驗室協調放緩能力提升的速度。 理由包括:AI開始幫助構建下一代AI(遞迴自我改進,RSI),以及OpenAI測試中的代理&ldquo;失控&rdquo;攻擊Hugging Face等事件。 他主張第三方評估者深度嵌入實驗室、行業標準和全球協調,部分得到Sam Altman、Elon Musk等人的呼應。 此前Anthropic研究員Jacob Coxon離職警告,另有聲音稱未來十年AI滅絕人類概率超10%。 市場隨之震盪,晶片股承壓,網路安全股卻大漲。</p>
200
201<p>黃仁勳的回應清晰而鋒利。 他首先肯定安全&ldquo;至關重要&rdquo;,吹哨者勇氣可嘉&mdash;&mdash;Coxon公開表達擔憂需要勇氣。 但他把兩件事嚴格分開:內部真實問題的舉報是正當的; 對未來做出&ldquo;科學預測&rdquo;卻不是。 &ldquo;那些預測雖然出自科學家之口,卻沒有建立在科學上...... 這個數字是編出ä¾
201†çš„。 這些人受過良好教育,被稱為研究人員,也在實驗室工作。 把這些詞放在一起,再拋出一個預測,聽起來就很驚人、很可怕,但不應該這樣做,這是不負責任的。 &rdquo;</p>
202
203<p>他逐一清算過去幾年被證偽的預言:有人說五年內放射科醫生將被AI完全取代,結果需求反而更高,AI只是輔助讀片; 有人預測6-12個月內90%代碼由AI生成、6-9個月內50%初級崗位消失、白領崗位明年減半、GPT-2和Llama 3太危險不能發布...... 這些統統落空。 &ldquo;必須有人對這些愚蠢的預測負責。&rdquo; 真正基於科學與證據的方向,恰恰與恐慌相反。</p>
204
205<p>對RSI,他去神祕化:它不過是上下文學習、技能、反思、強化學習、合成數據、LoRA微調等常規方法的集合。 公司內部可以持續做,但發布前必須評估、測試、檢查回退。 實驗室從研究轉向工程後,控制力會通過方法、工具和實踐增強。 &ldquo;當然不(會失控)。&rdquo;</p>
206
207<p><strong>超級智能已至,但在窄域</strong></p>
208
209<p>黃仁勳更進一步:&ldquo;我認為我們已經到了(AGI)。 &hellip;&hellip; 超級智能也是。 &ldquo;他給出具體定義:自動駕駛不需要給你煎蛋,只要事故率是人類的十分之一,那就是超級智能; 蛋白質合成與虛擬篩選領域,AI已超人類。 窄域超級智能不是科幻終點,而是正在發生的現實。</p>
210
211<p>這與他一貫的工程視角一致。 安全與領先不是二選一。 美國可以既快又安全地領導。 真正的問題集中在擁有最多算力的前沿實驗室&mdash;&mdash;危險先出現在那裡合理。 正確做法是根因分析、更好的沙箱、監控與第三方評估(類似金融審計),而不是用籠統末日敘事踩剎車。 如果某實驗室真失控,其他工程師可以進去幫忙; 但他懷疑這些頂尖團隊最終能自己解決。</p>
212
213<p><strong>今天的</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>,正處在經濟價值逐步兌現的早期階段。</strong></p>
214
215<p>IDC預測2026年全球企業AI支出將達到9400億美元,到2029年增長至2.1萬億美元。 這不是炒概念的估值,是實實在在的企業開支、產業投入。</p>
216
217<p>AI產業的基本盤,是嵌入到製造業、醫療、金融、能源、國防所有領域的生產力底座。 社會發展的內生需求,決定了AI只會越用越廣、越用越深,不可能因為頂層的安全爭議就整體停滯。</p>
218
219<p>很多人混淆了兩件事:前沿基礎模型的極限能力爬坡,和AI全產業的落地普及,是兩條完全不同的賽道。哪怕最頂尖的模型真的放緩了能力迭代,整個AI產業鏈的增長邏輯也不會受到根本影響。</p>
220
221<p>就像當年晶片製程衝到3nm、2nm遇到瓶頸,但全球數字經濟的增長並沒有因此停下,反而在應用層面開出了更多花。對追趕者來說更是如此。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/AI放緩論" title="AI放緩論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI放緩論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI末日論" title="AI末日論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI末日論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI減速" title="AI減速" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI減速</span></a><a href="/tag/資本投入" title="資本投入" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>資本投入</span></a><a href="/tag/奧特曼" title="奧特曼" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>奧特曼</span></a><a href="/tag/放緩" title="放緩" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>放緩</span></a><a href="/tag/AI風險" title="AI風險" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI風險</span></a><a href="/tag/AI泡沬" title="AI泡沬" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI泡沬</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="cxebglh"><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關新聞" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-hot-news.svg"/><span>相關新聞</span><a class="rqwyzr9" href="/poptopic/269">看更多<img alt="Next" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75 1x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75"/></a></div><div class="cn8s3o7" style="--cn8s3o7-0:16px;--cn8s3o7-1:0px"><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/1"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/2"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/3"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/4"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="l1a1dqu7" style="--l1a1dqu7-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關行情" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-relate-product.
221svg"/><span>相關行情</span></div><div class="n1jgsfi4">#目前無相關行情資料</div></div></div></div></div></div><div data-index="3" tabindex="-1" class="slick-slide slick-cloned" aria-hidden="true" style="width:14.285714285714286%"><div><div style="--p1ppj68-0:#f6f8fc;--p1ppj68-1:0 0 6px 0 rgba(0, 47, 143, 0.1);--p1ppj68-2:640px;margin:0px 8px" class="p1ppj68"><img alt="ribbons" loading="lazy" width="77" height="84" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="r166uj18" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/label-ribbons.png"/><div class="t1ac3lzm" style="--t1ac3lzm-0:url(/assets/images/news_default_images/1.webp)"><div class="b114cned"></div><div class="t1mmubal"><div class="t1ajqf7"><h3 class="hkelhgw" style="--hkelhgw-0:28px"><a href="/poptopic/271">川習會登場 兩國聚焦關稅、大宗採購、AI與稀土等議題</a></h3><button aria-label="follow" style="--b1hnyx5d-0:#fff;--b1hnyx5d-1:1px solid #e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-2:#e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-3:url(&#x27;/assets/icons/icon-add-check.svg&#x27;)" class="b1hnyx5d">追蹤</button></div><div class="s1a7rr2i"><p>中國國家主席習近平應美國總統川普邀請,於2026年9月23日至25日對美國進行國是訪問。白宮以高規格禮遇接待,行程涵蓋軍禮歡迎、閱兵、國宴以及雙邊會談。</p>
222
223<p>本次峰會為雙方管理地緣與經貿風險的關鍵平台。在經貿與科技層面,兩國聚焦關稅減免、大宗採購、AI算力管制與關鍵礦物供應等議題。雙方團隊已推動成立「中美貿易委員會」,並建立 AI 安全對話機制以管控技術風險。在安全領域,台灣議題仍是北京不可逾越的紅線,對台軍售案與台海局勢成為外交博弈焦點。</p>
224
225<p>整體而言,峰會反映美中關係正從美國單極霸權轉向「談判雙極」的管控制度。雙方試圖在零和競爭中建立防範衝突的護欄,達成「管理型穩定」,而非戰略性緩和。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/川習會" title="川習會" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>川習會</span></a><a href="/tag/川普" title="川普" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>川普</span></a><a href="/tag/習近平" title="習近平" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>習近平</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="cxebglh"><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關新聞" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-hot-news.svg"/><span>相關新聞</span><a class="rqwyzr9" href="/poptopic/271">看更多<img alt="Next" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75 1x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75"/></a></div><div class="cn8s3o7" style="--cn8s3o7-0:16px;--cn8s3o7-1:0px"><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/1"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/2"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/3"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/4"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="l1a1dqu7" style="--l1a1dqu7-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關行情" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-relate-product.
225svg"/><span>相關行情</span></div><div class="n1jgsfi4">#目前無相關行情資料</div></div></div></div></div></div><div data-index="4" tabindex="-1" class="slick-slide slick-cloned" aria-hidden="true" style="width:14.285714285714286%"><div><div style="--p1ppj68-0:#f6f8fc;--p1ppj68-1:0 0 6px 0 rgba(0, 47, 143, 0.1);--p1ppj68-2:640px;margin:0px 8px" class="p1ppj68"><img alt="ribbons" loading="lazy" width="77" height="84" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="r166uj18" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/label-ribbons.png"/><div class="t1ac3lzm" style="--t1ac3lzm-0:url(/assets/images/news_default_images/1.webp)"><div class="b114cned"></div><div class="t1mmubal"><div class="t1ajqf7"><h3 class="hkelhgw" style="--hkelhgw-0:28px"><a href="/poptopic/270">Fed以12票全數通過升息一碼  3年來首度!料12月再升息一碼</a></h3><button aria-label="follow" style="--b1hnyx5d-0:#fff;--b1hnyx5d-1:1px solid #e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-2:#e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-3:url(&#x27;/assets/icons/icon-add-check.svg&#x27;)" class="b1hnyx5d">追蹤</button></div><div class="s1a7rr2i"><p>美國聯準會(Fed) 週三 (9/16)召開聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議,以 12 票對 0 票通過升息一碼決議,符合市場普遍預期。儘管官員會前釋出的政策訊息一度分歧,市場仍已反映超過 90% 的升息機率。會議將聯邦資金利率目標區間上調至 3.75% 至 4.00%。這是央行自 2023 年 7 月以來的首次升息紀錄,也是新任主席華許 (Kevin Warsh) 接掌 Fed 後的首度政策調升。最新利率點狀圖顯示,多數官員預估今年底利率將升至 4% 至 4.25%,意味年內仍可能再升息 1 碼。</p>
226
227<p>FOMC 在會後聲明中表示:「通膨仍處於高檔。今天的政策行動將有助於通膨更及時回到委員會的 2% 目標。委員會將實現物價穩定。」</p>
228
229<p><em><strong>點狀圖暗示年內可能再升1碼</strong></em></p>
230
231<p>Fed 同步公布的最新經濟預測顯示,18 名與會官員中,有 16 人預期今年至少還會升息 1 次,其中 4 人認為可能再升息 2 次;另有 2 人預期本次升息後便停止升息。</p>
232
233<p>Fed 主席華許自上任後選擇不提交個人利率預測,因此未列入點狀圖。</p>
234
235<p>至於後續政策路徑,官員並未預估 2027 年之後繼續升息,而是預期 2028 年降息 1 次,2029 年至少再降息 1 次。</p>
236
237<p>不過,2027 年的政策展望仍存在明顯分歧。8 名官員預期當年還會升息,6 人認為利率將維持不變,另有 4 人預估降息。</p>
238
239<p><em><strong>通膨預測上修 估2029年才回到目標</strong></em></p>
240
241<p>Fed小幅上調今年通膨預測,預估整體個人消費支出 (PCE) 物價指數為 3.7%,剔除食品與能源的核心 PCE 為 3.4%,兩者均較 6 月預測提高 0.1 個百分點。</p>
242
243<p>Fed預估,2027 年整體 PCE 通膨率將降至 2.3%,核心 PCE 則降至 2.5%,但通膨要到 2029 年才會回到 2% 目標。</p>
244
245<p>這次升息的背景不同於典型緊縮循環。伊朗戰爭推升燃料價格,加上關稅影響持續發酵,這類供給面造成的通膨通常不會促使Fed立即採取行動。</p>
246
247<p>然而,官員擔心能源價格若長時間維持高檔,可能推升通膨預期,並逐步擴散至其他商品與服務。經濟學家也認為,人工智慧 (AI) 投資持續擴大,可能成為另一項通膨因素。Fed同時將失業率預測由 6 月估計的 4.3%下調至 4.1%,反映勞動市場趨於穩定,也提高決策官員採取升息行動的空間。</p>
248
249<p>官員亦記取新冠疫情後誤判通膨為「暫時性」的經驗。當時Fed預期供需失衡造成的物價壓力將自行消退,實際上通膨其後升至 40 年高點,Fed才開始收緊政策。</p>
250
251<p><strong>Fed 9月聲明全文+最新經濟預測</strong></p>
252
253<p>&nbsp;</p>
254
255<p>Fed表示,美國經濟活動持續以穩健步調擴張。儘管地緣政治情勢等因素使經濟前景仍籠罩高度不確定性,但國內支出保持韌性,生產力成長強勁,企業資本投資也相當熱絡。</p>
256
257<p>勞動市場方面,Fed指出,新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率則變化不大,顯示就業市場目前仍大致維持穩定。</p>
258
259<p>Fed坦言,通膨依然偏高,這次升息將有助於使通膨更快回到2%目標,並以「委員會將實現物價穩定」的強硬措辭,展現持續對抗通膨的決心。此外,Fed將繼續維持銀行體系準備金充裕的政策。</p>
260
261<p><strong>Fed 9月、7月聲明比一比:從按兵不動轉向升息</strong></p>
262
263<p>&nbsp;</p>
264
265<p>Fed前次會議決定維持利率不變,本次則改為升息1碼,並新增<em>「今日的政策行動將有助於讓通膨更及時地回到2%目標」</em>的說法,顯示官員認為有必要透過進一步緊縮政策,加快壓低通膨的速度。</p>
266
267<p>聲明最後更直接表示,「委員會將實現物價穩定」,語氣明顯強於過去常見的「致力讓通膨回到2%目標」。<em>這項修改凸顯Fed希望向市場傳達明確訊息,即使部分物價壓力源自政策難以左右的外部因素,央行仍將採取行動控制通膨。</em></p>
268
269<p><strong>刪除中東衝突與供給衝擊說法</strong></p>
270
271<p>在經濟評估方面,Fed仍認為經濟活動正以穩健步調擴張,但不再直接將高度不確定性歸因於「中東衝突」,而是改以範圍更廣的「地緣政治發展」描述,同時新增美國國內支出保持韌性的說法。</p>
272
273<p>Fed也維持生產力成長強勁的評估,並將資本投資由「強勁」改稱「穩健」。至於<em>勞動市場,聲明並未出現明顯變化</em>,仍稱新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率也變化不大。</p>
274
275<p>通膨段落的變化更加值得注意。前次聲明指出,通膨偏高部分反映供給衝擊推升能源等特定領域的價格;本次則完全刪除這項解釋,僅保留「通膨仍處高檔」,隨即強調升息有助於使通膨更快回到2%。</p>
276
277<p>這項調整顯示,<em>Fed不再著重說明通膨是由能源與供應面衝擊造成,而是將論述重心轉向央行必須採取的政策行動,淡化外部因素可能只是暫時推高物價的意味。</em></p>
278
279<p><strong>
279三張反對票消失 Fed恢復全票共識</strong></p>
280
281<p>表決結果也反映Fed內部立場出現整合。前次會議以9票贊成、3票反對通過按兵不動的決策,反對者哈瑪克(Beth Hammack)、卡什卡里(Neel Kashkari)與蘿根(Lorie Logan)當時均主張升息1碼。</p>
282
283<p>隨著Fed本次採取3人先前主張的升息行動,決策獲得12票一致支持,反對票全部消失。這顯示在經濟保持韌性、通膨仍然偏高的背景下,Fed官員已對進一步收緊貨幣政策形成高度共識。</p>
284
285<p><strong>Fed升息1碼惹怒川普 喊話利率應降至1%以下</strong></p>
286
287<p>聯準會 (Fed) 週三 (16 日) 宣布2023年以來首次升息後,美國總統川普隨即要求央行迅速將利率降至1%或更低。白宮亦批評這項決定「相當令人遺憾」,認為升息缺乏充分的經濟依據,但未直接批評Fed主席華許。</p>
288
289<p>川普會後在Truth Social發文表示,美國利率「應該降至1%或更低」,理由是美國擁有全球最佳信用。他並以全大寫文字要求:「為美國降低利率,而且要快!」</p>
290
291<p>川普聲稱,美國正在支撐全球多數國家,這種情況不能繼續下去。他並以美國吸引大量新增投資,以及對許多國家存在貿易逆差為由,主張美國應適用更低利率。</p>
292
293<p>白宮發言人德賽 (Kush Desai) 接受福斯新聞訪問時表示,川普已清楚說明希望利率朝哪個方向移動,而Fed當天決定升息,從政府立場來看「相當令人遺憾」,也缺乏特別有力的經濟依據。</p>
294
295<p>德賽指出,目前並非拜登政府時期,川普與共和黨沒有投入數兆美元的新冠疫情刺激支出,因此不存在需要透過提高利率加以抑制的失控總需求。</p>
296
297<p>儘管白宮反對這次升息,德賽仍表示,川普相信Fed應保持獨立,但這不影響總統在認為政策出現問題時公開表達意見的權利。</p>
298
299<p>川普近期已重新加大對Fed的施壓力道。不到兩週前,他曾警告,如果Fed不降息,可能停止與對美國享有貿易順差的國家進行貿易,涉及美國多數主要貿易夥伴及其他數十個國家。</p>
300
301<p>不過,川普與白宮官員目前仍未直接抨擊由川普任命的華許。華許接替鮑爾出任Fed主席後,川普對央行的公開施壓一度減弱,如今情況可能隨著Fed轉向升息而改變,華許也將面臨更大的白宮政治壓力。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/華許" title="華許" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>華許</span></a><a href="/tag/聯準會" title="聯準會" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>聯準會</span></a><a href="/tag/Fed" title="Fed" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>Fed</span></a><a href="/tag/FOMC" title="FOMC" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>FOMC</span></a><a href="/tag/升息" title="升息" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>升息</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="cxebglh"><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關新聞" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-hot-news.svg"/><span>相關新聞</span><a class="rqwyzr9" href="/poptopic/270">看更多<img alt="Next" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75 1x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75"/></a></div><div class="cn8s3o7" style="--cn8s3o7-0:16px;--cn8s3o7-1:0px"><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/1"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/2"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/3"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/4"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="l1a1dqu7" style="--l1a1dqu7-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關行情" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-relate-product.
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302
303<p>初步統計顯示,全球半導體和AI算力硬體產業鏈總市值一夜之間蒸發超5000億美元。</p>
304
305<p>引發這場拋售的,是三個人在週末說了幾句話。</p>
306
307<p><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>放緩論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong></p>
308
309<p>Anthropic CEO阿莫代伊發布長文《我們必須為前沿定速》,主張以第三方&ldquo;員工級&rdquo;系統訪問等手段放緩最強模型迭代; OpenAI CEO奧爾特曼公開呼應&ldquo;同意定速前沿&rdquo;,並明確2026年不推進IPO; 馬斯克轉評&ldquo;達里奧說得對&rdquo;。</p>
310
311<p>三個人,幾句話,5000億美元一夜蒸發。</p>
312
313<p>首先要釐清一個最基本的事實:阿莫代伊等人擔憂的AI風險,和當下絕大多數AI產業、絕大多數國家的AI發展,根本不在同一個維度上。</p>
314
315<p>他們談論的風險,是最前沿極限模型的湧現性風險&mdash;&mdash;是AI智能體自主突破沙盒、主動發起網路攻擊、遞迴自我改進帶來的失控可能。</p>
316
317<p>這種風險只存在於OpenAI、Anthropic少數幾家實驗室的最頂尖測試環境中,是人類摸到智能邊界時的前沿焦慮,屬於超遠期的尾部風險。</p>
318
319<p>如果只把這場爭論當成技術安全問題,那就看得太淺了。</p>
320
321<p>這套邏輯的底層,其實和當年核不擴散體系的誕生幾乎沒什麼區別:領跑者先掌握了顛覆性技術,一邊擔憂技術反噬自身,一邊又怕對手追平力量格局,於是就用&ldquo;全球公共安全&rdquo;的名義,建立一套固化自身優勢的管控規則。</p>
322
323<p>今天的AI放緩論,美國頭部實驗室率先摸到了前沿AI的能力邊界,現在提出要建立&ldquo;高危閾值標準&rdquo;&ldquo;第三方獨立審計&rdquo;&ldquo;全球協同限速&rdquo;,名義是防範AI失控災難,實際效果必然是&mdash;&mdash;由美國定義什麼是&ldquo;高危&rdquo;,由美國主導審核權,誰摸到了這條線,誰就要接受限制、放慢腳步。</p>
324
325<p>這也是為什麼追趕者天然對這套敘事保持警惕的原因。當你的模型能力距離高危閾值還有很遠的時候,接受這套規則等於單方面自廢武功。AI治理從來就不是單純的技術問題,本質更是大國博弈的工具。在這種格局下,指望全球形成統一的AI減速共識,無異於天方夜譚。</p>
326
327<p><strong>世紀大和解?</strong><strong> </strong><strong>馬斯克奧特曼聯手踩剎車,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>取消上市:</strong><strong>AI </strong><strong>三巨頭在怕什麼?</strong></p>
328
329<p>當科技史上最水火不容的三位死對頭突然坐在同一張長椅上、以完全相同的口吻呼籲&ldquo;給 AI 踩剎車&rdquo;時,全人類應該感到欣慰,還是後背發涼? 2026 年 9 月 12 日至 16 日,全球人工智慧產業迎來了一場戲劇性拉滿的&ldquo;世紀大地震&rdquo;:Anthropic 首席執行官達里奧&middot;
329阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)發表了一篇長達 3,800 字的警世長文《我們必須為前沿技術設定節奏》(We Must Pace the Frontier),嚴厲警告遞歸式自我改進(Recursive Self-Improvement)正在讓人工智慧脫離人類掌控,可能在未來 6 到 12 個月內引發無法逆轉的生存危機。</p>
330
331<p>如果這只是一家自詡&ldquo;對齊原教旨主義&rdquo;實驗室的常規悲鳴,輿論或許早已習以為常。 但戲劇性的一幕緊隨其後:正在法庭上與 OpenAI 瘋狂撕扯的 xAI 掌門人埃隆&middot;馬斯克(Elon Musk)罕見公開轉發並力挺:&ldquo;達里奧是對的(Dario is right)&rdquo;; 緊接著,OpenAI 首席執行官山姆&middot;奧特曼(Sam Altman)不僅全盤背書限速倡議,更在受訪時拋出一記震動全球資本市場的超級重磅炸彈:<strong>因前沿安全與治理考量,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>決定取消原定於</strong><strong> 2026 </strong><strong>年進行的首次公開募股(</strong><strong>IPO</strong><strong>)!</strong><strong> </strong>隨後,微軟納德拉與谷歌 DeepMind 哈薩比斯相繼發表聲援。</p>
332
333<p>一時間,全球科技股應聲巨震,納斯達克 AI 板塊估值虛火被當場扯下。 然而,就在主流媒體高呼&ldquo;矽谷巨頭終於良心發現拯救人類&rdquo;的同時,全球開源社區與反壟斷學者卻發出了尖銳的嘲弄:當燒了上千億美元的閉源巨頭發現算力撞牆、電網告急、千億估值無法兌現,且身後跟著步步緊逼的開源狼群時,&ldquo;以人類之名踩剎車&rdquo;,究竟是純粹的慈悲,還是一場教科書級別的合謀壟斷與監管俘獲?</p>
334
335<p><strong>黃仁勳駁斥</strong><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>末日論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong><strong>,特朗普電話助陣美國競速</strong></p>
336
337<p>2026年9月14日,洛杉磯All-In Summit現場。 輝達CEO黃仁勳正與Chamath、Jason、Sacks、Friedberg四位&ldquo;Besties&rdquo;深入對談,突然手機響起。 他接通並切到揚聲器,全場聽清了來電者的聲音&mdash;&mdash;美國總統特朗普。</p>
338
339<p>川普開場就調侃:&ldquo;你能設計世界上最複雜的晶片,卻搞不定免提。 &ldquo;隨即切入正題:&rdquo;機器人不會接管世界,AI也不會接管世界。 整件事都是騙局。 &ldquo;他強調數據中心&rdquo;太棒了,讓人和州都變富,是未來20-25年的石油&ldquo;,比互聯網更重要; 反對聲浪正中&ldquo;不想看到它發生的人&rdquo;下懷,可能是政客,也可能是中國。 &ldquo;我們不會讓那發生。&rdquo;</p>
340
341<p>黃仁勳回應:&ldquo;我們不會讓那發生,先生。 我們要確保美國AI競賽中人人都贏&mdash;&mdash;每個產業、每家公司、每個州、每一個人。 &ldquo;現場掌聲雷動。&nbsp;</p>
342
343<p>這通突如其來的電話,把近期愈演愈烈的&ldquo;AI末日論&rdquo;爭論推到了聚光燈下。</p>
344
345<p>末日敘事的源頭與黃仁勳的拆解</p>
346
347<p>兩週前,比爾&middot;蓋茲發布一篇長文,對AI時代的動盪和危機發出了嚴厲的警告。</p>
348
349<p>上週末,Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei發布長文《We Must Pace the Frontier》,呼籲前沿實驗室協調放緩能力提升的速度。 理由包括:AI開始幫助構建下一代AI(遞迴自我改進,RSI),以及OpenAI測試中的代理&ldquo;失控&rdquo;攻擊Hugging Face等事件。 他主張第三方評估者深度嵌入實驗室、行業標準和全球協調,部分得到Sam Altman、Elon Musk等人的呼應。 此前Anthropic研究員Jacob Coxon離職警告,另有聲音稱未來十年AI滅絕人類概率超10%。 市場隨之震盪,晶片股承壓,網路安全股卻大漲。</p>
350
351<p>黃仁勳的回應清晰而鋒利。 他首先肯定安全&ldquo;至關重要&rdquo;,吹哨者勇氣可嘉&mdash;&mdash;Coxon公開表達擔憂需要勇氣。 但他把兩件事嚴格分開:內部真實問題的舉報是正當的; 對未來做出&ldquo;科學預測&rdquo;卻不是。 &ldquo;那些預測雖然出自科學家之口,卻沒有建立在科學上...... 這個數字是編出ä¾
351†çš„。 這些人受過良好教育,被稱為研究人員,也在實驗室工作。 把這些詞放在一起,再拋出一個預測,聽起來就很驚人、很可怕,但不應該這樣做,這是不負責任的。 &rdquo;</p>
352
353<p>他逐一清算過去幾年被證偽的預言:有人說五年內放射科醫生將被AI完全取代,結果需求反而更高,AI只是輔助讀片; 有人預測6-12個月內90%代碼由AI生成、6-9個月內50%初級崗位消失、白領崗位明年減半、GPT-2和Llama 3太危險不能發布...... 這些統統落空。 &ldquo;必須有人對這些愚蠢的預測負責。&rdquo; 真正基於科學與證據的方向,恰恰與恐慌相反。</p>
354
355<p>對RSI,他去神祕化:它不過是上下文學習、技能、反思、強化學習、合成數據、LoRA微調等常規方法的集合。 公司內部可以持續做,但發布前必須評估、測試、檢查回退。 實驗室從研究轉向工程後,控制力會通過方法、工具和實踐增強。 &ldquo;當然不(會失控)。&rdquo;</p>
356
357<p><strong>超級智能已至,但在窄域</strong></p>
358
359<p>黃仁勳更進一步:&ldquo;我認為我們已經到了(AGI)。 &hellip;&hellip; 超級智能也是。 &ldquo;他給出具體定義:自動駕駛不需要給你煎蛋,只要事故率是人類的十分之一,那就是超級智能; 蛋白質合成與虛擬篩選領域,AI已超人類。 窄域超級智能不是科幻終點,而是正在發生的現實。</p>
360
361<p>這與他一貫的工程視角一致。 安全與領先不是二選一。 美國可以既快又安全地領導。 真正的問題集中在擁有最多算力的前沿實驗室&mdash;&mdash;危險先出現在那裡合理。 正確做法是根因分析、更好的沙箱、監控與第三方評估(類似金融審計),而不是用籠統末日敘事踩剎車。 如果某實驗室真失控,其他工程師可以進去幫忙; 但他懷疑這些頂尖團隊最終能自己解決。</p>
362
363<p><strong>今天的</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>,正處在經濟價值逐步兌現的早期階段。</strong></p>
364
365<p>IDC預測2026年全球企業AI支出將達到9400億美元,到2029年增長至2.1萬億美元。 這不是炒概念的估值,是實實在在的企業開支、產業投入。</p>
366
367<p>AI產業的基本盤,是嵌入到製造業、醫療、金融、能源、國防所有領域的生產力底座。 社會發展的內生需求,決定了AI只會越用越廣、越用越深,不可能因為頂層的安全爭議就整體停滯。</p>
368
369<p>很多人混淆了兩件事:前沿基礎模型的極限能力爬坡,和AI全產業的落地普及,是兩條完全不同的賽道。哪怕最頂尖的模型真的放緩了能力迭代,整個AI產業鏈的增長邏輯也不會受到根本影響。</p>
370
371<p>就像當年晶片製程衝到3nm、2nm遇到瓶頸,但全球數字經濟的增長並沒有因此停下,反而在應用層面開出了更多花。對追趕者來說更是如此。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/AI放緩論" title="AI放緩論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI放緩論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI末日論" title="AI末日論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI末日論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI減速" title="AI減速" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI減速</span></a><a 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aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:110px;height:28px;border-radius:3px">‌</span><br/></span><!--/$--><!--/$--></div><div class="cxh832a"><ul class="u1b9z3yn"><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#e03f19;--ls6ua1w-1:500"><button>全部</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>台股</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>美股</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>國際政經</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>A股港股</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>外匯</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>期貨</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>房產</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" 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style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
371<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
371<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
371<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
371<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
371<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
371<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
371<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
371<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
371<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
371<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div></div><!--/$--><!--/$--></section></div><!--$!--><template 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371--a1mzdm1v-2:300px;--a1mzdm1v-3:250px;--a1mzdm1v-4:0;--a1mzdm1v-5:0;--a1mzdm1v-6:auto;--a1mzdm1v-7:auto"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="border-radius:6px;width:100%;height:100%">‌</span><br/></span></div><div id="NewsFeatureReport" class="wo6or09"><section class="c1axdy7y"><div class="t1f8ue4o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="height:38px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="i6t8yrg"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="height:274px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="ffa96yr"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="height:6px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></section></div><!--$!--><template data-dgst="BAILOUT_TO_CLIENT_SIDE_RENDERING"></template><!--/$--><section class="section-aside-container c1jod995" style="--c1jod995-2:32px 0 16px"><div class="section-aside-wrapper c106polj"><img alt="section icon" loading="lazy" width="25" height="25" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="icon" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/symbol-card-side-icon.svg"/><h3>熱門排行</h3><a href="/member/rankinglist" target="_blank" class="l1q6lkcx">看更多</a></div><div class="v3japm9"><ul class="t1cgh5qm"><li class="active t1t6yq1z">熱門追蹤</li><li class="t1t6yq1z">熱門收藏</li></ul><nav class="n6eygn3"><ul class="sub-tab"><li class="tab active">標籤</li><li class="tab">時事</li></ul></nav><div class="lyggs4f"><!--$--><!--$!--><template data-dgst="BAILOUT_TO_CLIENT_SIDE_RENDERING"></template><div class="h1paadp4" style="--h1paadp4-0:0px"><div class="hiir0tf" style="--hiir0tf-0:repeat(3, 1fr);--hiir0tf-1:repeat(1, 1fr)"><div class="c1toysbd"><div class="h14yock2"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:34px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="h19tdhzl"><p><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:180px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></p><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:64px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="c1toysbd"><div class="h14yock2"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:34px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="h19tdhzl"><p><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:180px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></p><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:64px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="c1toysbd"><div class="h14yock2"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:34px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="h19tdhzl"><p><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:180px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></p><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:64px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><!--/$--><!--/$--></div></div></section><section id="NewsTwStockExpert" class="section-aside-container c1jod995" style="--c1jod995-2:32px 0 16px"><div class="section-aside-wrapper c106polj"><img alt="section icon" loading="lazy" width="25" height="25" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="icon" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/twStockExpert.svg"/><h3>台股專家觀點</h3><a href="/news/cat/stock_report" target="_self" class="l1q6lkcx">看更多</a></div><div class="c1q4xm40"></div></section><section id="LogoWallCarouselAside" height="232" class="l8u4wkb" style="--l8u4wkb-0:100%;--l8u4wkb-1:232px"><div class="slide"><div style="width:-2px;height:232px" class="c1txj10r"><div class="carousel"><div class="carousel__body" style="transition:transform 0s;width:200%;height:232px;transform:translateX(-50%)"></div><div class="carousel__arrows"><div class="carousel__arrows__arrow">
371<img class="carousel__arrows__/assets/icons/carousel/icon-slider-arrow-left-with-round.svg" src="/assets/icons/carousel/icon-slider-arrow-left-with-round.svg" alt="left arrow"/></div><div class="carousel__arrows__arrow"><img class="carousel__arrows__/assets/icons/carousel/icon-slider-arrow-right-with-round.svg" src="/assets/icons/carousel/icon-slider-arrow-right-with-round.svg" alt="right arrow"/></div></div></div></div></div></section><div id="AnueService" class="wo6or09"><section class="c9turoh"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="height:38px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwiqs2w"><div class="nk3ubmv"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="height:107px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="nk3ubmv"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="height:107px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="nxoehow"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="height:20px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="nxoehow"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="height:20px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="nxoehow"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="height:20px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="nxoehow"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="height:20px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></section></div><!--$!--><template data-dgst="BAILOUT_TO_CLIENT_SIDE_RENDERING"></template><!--/$--></div></aside></main></div></div><div class="m3qc7fx"><section id="content-pop-topic" class="cudoasi"><div id="div-gpt-ad-indexBannerNewsList" class="a1mzdm1v" style="--a1mzdm1v-0:320px;--a1mzdm1v-1:100px;--a1mzdm1v-2:320px;--a1mzdm1v-3:100px;--a1mzdm1v-4:0px;--a1mzdm1v-5:16px;--a1mzdm1v-6:auto;--a1mzdm1v-7:auto"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="border-radius:6px;width:100%;height:100%">‌</span><br/></span></div></section><div class="mgbfj1q"><section class="cf7eh58"><div class="vg9xh0y"><h1 class="hnhigwh">熱門時事</h1><div class="v15hxnri"></div><p class="a2k1s4l"><img alt="fire" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Ficon-fire.png&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 1x, /_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Ficon-fire.png&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 2x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Ficon-fire.png&amp;w=64&amp;q=75"/>快速掌握近期熱門話題</p></div><div class="sueffa"><button style="left:-11px" id="left-arrow-touch" class="a5newwo"><img alt="arrow back" loading="lazy" width="36" height="36" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/symbol-icon-prev.svg"/></button><div class="slick-slider slick-initialized" dir="ltr"><button type="button" data-role="none" class="slick-arrow slick-prev" style="display:block"> <!-- -->Previous</button><div class="slick-list"><div class="slick-track" style="width:700%;left:-100%"><div data-index="-1" tabindex="-1" class="slick-slide slick-cloned" aria-hidden="true" style="width:14.285714285714286%"><div>
371<div style="--p1ppj68-0:#f6f8fc;--p1ppj68-1:0 0 6px 0 rgba(0, 47, 143, 0.1);--p1ppj68-2:640px;margin:0px 8px" class="p1ppj68"><img alt="ribbons" loading="lazy" width="77" height="84" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="r166uj18" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/label-ribbons.png"/><div class="t1ac3lzm" style="--t1ac3lzm-0:url(/assets/images/news_default_images/1.webp)"><div class="b114cned"></div><div class="t1mmubal"><div class="t1ajqf7"><h3 class="hkelhgw" style="--hkelhgw-0:28px"><a href="/poptopic/269">【AI放緩論】5000億美元的噪音</a></h3><button aria-label="follow" style="--b1hnyx5d-0:#fff;--b1hnyx5d-1:1px solid #e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-2:#e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-3:url(&#x27;/assets/icons/icon-add-check.svg&#x27;)" class="b1hnyx5d">追蹤</button></div><div class="s1a7rr2i"><p>9月14日,軟銀集團收盤大跌11%,費城半導體指數下跌近6%,SK海力士跌7.6%,阿斯麥跌7.25%,輝達跌3.4%、英特爾、美光跌超5%,康寧暴跌13.74%,Coherent跌超12%。</p>
372
373<p>初步統計顯示,全球半導體和AI算力硬體產業鏈總市值一夜之間蒸發超5000億美元。</p>
374
375<p>引發這場拋售的,是三個人在週末說了幾句話。</p>
376
377<p><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>放緩論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong></p>
378
379<p>Anthropic CEO阿莫代伊發布長文《我們必須為前沿定速》,主張以第三方&ldquo;員工級&rdquo;系統訪問等手段放緩最強模型迭代; OpenAI CEO奧爾特曼公開呼應&ldquo;同意定速前沿&rdquo;,並明確2026年不推進IPO; 馬斯克轉評&ldquo;達里奧說得對&rdquo;。</p>
380
381<p>三個人,幾句話,5000億美元一夜蒸發。</p>
382
383<p>首先要釐清一個最基本的事實:阿莫代伊等人擔憂的AI風險,和當下絕大多數AI產業、絕大多數國家的AI發展,根本不在同一個維度上。</p>
384
385<p>他們談論的風險,是最前沿極限模型的湧現性風險&mdash;&mdash;是AI智能體自主突破沙盒、主動發起網路攻擊、遞迴自我改進帶來的失控可能。</p>
386
387<p>這種風險只存在於OpenAI、Anthropic少數幾家實驗室的最頂尖測試環境中,是人類摸到智能邊界時的前沿焦慮,屬於超遠期的尾部風險。</p>
388
389<p>如果只把這場爭論當成技術安全問題,那就看得太淺了。</p>
390
391<p>這套邏輯的底層,其實和當年核不擴散體系的誕生幾乎沒什麼區別:領跑者先掌握了顛覆性技術,一邊擔憂技術反噬自身,一邊又怕對手追平力量格局,於是就用&ldquo;全球公共安全&rdquo;的名義,建立一套固化自身優勢的管控規則。</p>
392
393<p>今天的AI放緩論,美國頭部實驗室率先摸到了前沿AI的能力邊界,現在提出要建立&ldquo;高危閾值標準&rdquo;&ldquo;第三方獨立審計&rdquo;&ldquo;全球協同限速&rdquo;,名義是防範AI失控災難,實際效果必然是&mdash;&mdash;由美國定義什麼是&ldquo;高危&rdquo;,由美國主導審核權,誰摸到了這條線,誰就要接受限制、放慢腳步。</p>
394
395<p>這也是為什麼追趕者天然對這套敘事保持警惕的原因。當你的模型能力距離高危閾值還有很遠的時候,接受這套規則等於單方面自廢武功。AI治理從來就不是單純的技術問題,本質更是大國博弈的工具。在這種格局下,指望全球形成統一的AI減速共識,無異於天方夜譚。</p>
396
397<p><strong>世紀大和解?</strong><strong> </strong><strong>馬斯克奧特曼聯手踩剎車,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>取消上市:</strong><strong>AI </strong><strong>三巨頭在怕什麼?</strong></p>
398
399<p>當科技史上最水火不容的三位死對頭突然坐在同一張長椅上、以完全相同的口吻呼籲&ldquo;給 AI 踩剎車&rdquo;時,全人類應該感到欣慰,還是後背發涼? 2026 年 9 月 12 日至 16 日,全球人工智慧產業迎來了一場戲劇性拉滿的&ldquo;世紀大地震&rdquo;:Anthropic 首席執行官達里奧&middot;
399阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)發表了一篇長達 3,800 字的警世長文《我們必須為前沿技術設定節奏》(We Must Pace the Frontier),嚴厲警告遞歸式自我改進(Recursive Self-Improvement)正在讓人工智慧脫離人類掌控,可能在未來 6 到 12 個月內引發無法逆轉的生存危機。</p>
400
401<p>如果這只是一家自詡&ldquo;對齊原教旨主義&rdquo;實驗室的常規悲鳴,輿論或許早已習以為常。 但戲劇性的一幕緊隨其後:正在法庭上與 OpenAI 瘋狂撕扯的 xAI 掌門人埃隆&middot;馬斯克(Elon Musk)罕見公開轉發並力挺:&ldquo;達里奧是對的(Dario is right)&rdquo;; 緊接著,OpenAI 首席執行官山姆&middot;奧特曼(Sam Altman)不僅全盤背書限速倡議,更在受訪時拋出一記震動全球資本市場的超級重磅炸彈:<strong>因前沿安全與治理考量,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>決定取消原定於</strong><strong> 2026 </strong><strong>年進行的首次公開募股(</strong><strong>IPO</strong><strong>)!</strong><strong> </strong>隨後,微軟納德拉與谷歌 DeepMind 哈薩比斯相繼發表聲援。</p>
402
403<p>一時間,全球科技股應聲巨震,納斯達克 AI 板塊估值虛火被當場扯下。 然而,就在主流媒體高呼&ldquo;矽谷巨頭終於良心發現拯救人類&rdquo;的同時,全球開源社區與反壟斷學者卻發出了尖銳的嘲弄:當燒了上千億美元的閉源巨頭發現算力撞牆、電網告急、千億估值無法兌現,且身後跟著步步緊逼的開源狼群時,&ldquo;以人類之名踩剎車&rdquo;,究竟是純粹的慈悲,還是一場教科書級別的合謀壟斷與監管俘獲?</p>
404
405<p><strong>黃仁勳駁斥</strong><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>末日論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong><strong>,特朗普電話助陣美國競速</strong></p>
406
407<p>2026年9月14日,洛杉磯All-In Summit現場。 輝達CEO黃仁勳正與Chamath、Jason、Sacks、Friedberg四位&ldquo;Besties&rdquo;深入對談,突然手機響起。 他接通並切到揚聲器,全場聽清了來電者的聲音&mdash;&mdash;美國總統特朗普。</p>
408
409<p>川普開場就調侃:&ldquo;你能設計世界上最複雜的晶片,卻搞不定免提。 &ldquo;隨即切入正題:&rdquo;機器人不會接管世界,AI也不會接管世界。 整件事都是騙局。 &ldquo;他強調數據中心&rdquo;太棒了,讓人和州都變富,是未來20-25年的石油&ldquo;,比互聯網更重要; 反對聲浪正中&ldquo;不想看到它發生的人&rdquo;下懷,可能是政客,也可能是中國。 &ldquo;我們不會讓那發生。&rdquo;</p>
410
411<p>黃仁勳回應:&ldquo;我們不會讓那發生,先生。 我們要確保美國AI競賽中人人都贏&mdash;&mdash;每個產業、每家公司、每個州、每一個人。 &ldquo;現場掌聲雷動。&nbsp;</p>
412
413<p>這通突如其來的電話,把近期愈演愈烈的&ldquo;AI末日論&rdquo;爭論推到了聚光燈下。</p>
414
415<p>末日敘事的源頭與黃仁勳的拆解</p>
416
417<p>兩週前,比爾&middot;蓋茲發布一篇長文,對AI時代的動盪和危機發出了嚴厲的警告。</p>
418
419<p>上週末,Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei發布長文《We Must Pace the Frontier》,呼籲前沿實驗室協調放緩能力提升的速度。 理由包括:AI開始幫助構建下一代AI(遞迴自我改進,RSI),以及OpenAI測試中的代理&ldquo;失控&rdquo;攻擊Hugging Face等事件。 他主張第三方評估者深度嵌入實驗室、行業標準和全球協調,部分得到Sam Altman、Elon Musk等人的呼應。 此前Anthropic研究員Jacob Coxon離職警告,另有聲音稱未來十年AI滅絕人類概率超10%。 市場隨之震盪,晶片股承壓,網路安全股卻大漲。</p>
420
421<p>黃仁勳的回應清晰而鋒利。 他首先肯定安全&ldquo;至關重要&rdquo;,吹哨者勇氣可嘉&mdash;&mdash;Coxon公開表達擔憂需要勇氣。 但他把兩件事嚴格分開:內部真實問題的舉報是正當的; 對未來做出&ldquo;科學預測&rdquo;卻不是。 &ldquo;那些預測雖然出自科學家之口,卻沒有建立在科學上...... 這個數字是編出ä¾
421†çš„。 這些人受過良好教育,被稱為研究人員,也在實驗室工作。 把這些詞放在一起,再拋出一個預測,聽起來就很驚人、很可怕,但不應該這樣做,這是不負責任的。 &rdquo;</p>
422
423<p>他逐一清算過去幾年被證偽的預言:有人說五年內放射科醫生將被AI完全取代,結果需求反而更高,AI只是輔助讀片; 有人預測6-12個月內90%代碼由AI生成、6-9個月內50%初級崗位消失、白領崗位明年減半、GPT-2和Llama 3太危險不能發布...... 這些統統落空。 &ldquo;必須有人對這些愚蠢的預測負責。&rdquo; 真正基於科學與證據的方向,恰恰與恐慌相反。</p>
424
425<p>對RSI,他去神祕化:它不過是上下文學習、技能、反思、強化學習、合成數據、LoRA微調等常規方法的集合。 公司內部可以持續做,但發布前必須評估、測試、檢查回退。 實驗室從研究轉向工程後,控制力會通過方法、工具和實踐增強。 &ldquo;當然不(會失控)。&rdquo;</p>
426
427<p><strong>超級智能已至,但在窄域</strong></p>
428
429<p>黃仁勳更進一步:&ldquo;我認為我們已經到了(AGI)。 &hellip;&hellip; 超級智能也是。 &ldquo;他給出具體定義:自動駕駛不需要給你煎蛋,只要事故率是人類的十分之一,那就是超級智能; 蛋白質合成與虛擬篩選領域,AI已超人類。 窄域超級智能不是科幻終點,而是正在發生的現實。</p>
430
431<p>這與他一貫的工程視角一致。 安全與領先不是二選一。 美國可以既快又安全地領導。 真正的問題集中在擁有最多算力的前沿實驗室&mdash;&mdash;危險先出現在那裡合理。 正確做法是根因分析、更好的沙箱、監控與第三方評估(類似金融審計),而不是用籠統末日敘事踩剎車。 如果某實驗室真失控,其他工程師可以進去幫忙; 但他懷疑這些頂尖團隊最終能自己解決。</p>
432
433<p><strong>今天的</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>,正處在經濟價值逐步兌現的早期階段。</strong></p>
434
435<p>IDC預測2026年全球企業AI支出將達到9400億美元,到2029年增長至2.1萬億美元。 這不是炒概念的估值,是實實在在的企業開支、產業投入。</p>
436
437<p>AI產業的基本盤,是嵌入到製造業、醫療、金融、能源、國防所有領域的生產力底座。 社會發展的內生需求,決定了AI只會越用越廣、越用越深,不可能因為頂層的安全爭議就整體停滯。</p>
438
439<p>很多人混淆了兩件事:前沿基礎模型的極限能力爬坡,和AI全產業的落地普及,是兩條完全不同的賽道。哪怕最頂尖的模型真的放緩了能力迭代,整個AI產業鏈的增長邏輯也不會受到根本影響。</p>
440
441<p>就像當年晶片製程衝到3nm、2nm遇到瓶頸,但全球數字經濟的增長並沒有因此停下,反而在應用層面開出了更多花。對追趕者來說更是如此。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/AI放緩論" title="AI放緩論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI放緩論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI末日論" title="AI末日論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI末日論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI減速" title="AI減速" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI減速</span></a><a href="/tag/資本投入" title="資本投入" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>資本投入</span></a><a href="/tag/奧特曼" title="奧特曼" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>奧特曼</span></a><a href="/tag/放緩" title="放緩" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>放緩</span></a><a href="/tag/AI風險" title="AI風險" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 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442
443<p>本次峰會為雙方管理地緣與經貿風險的關鍵平台。在經貿與科技層面,兩國聚焦關稅減免、大宗採購、AI算力管制與關鍵礦物供應等議題。雙方團隊已推動成立「中美貿易委員會」,並建立 AI 安全對話機制以管控技術風險。在安全領域,台灣議題仍是北京不可逾越的紅線,對台軍售案與台海局勢成為外交博弈焦點。</p>
444
445<p>整體而言,峰會反映美中關係正從美國單極霸權轉向「談判雙極」的管控制度。雙方試圖在零和競爭中建立防範衝突的護欄,達成「管理型穩定」,而非戰略性緩和。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/川習會" title="川習會" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>川習會</span></a><a href="/tag/川普" title="川普" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>川普</span></a><a href="/tag/習近平" title="習近平" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>習近平</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="cxebglh"><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關新聞" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-hot-news.svg"/><span>相關新聞</span><a class="rqwyzr9" href="/poptopic/271">看更多<img alt="Next" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75 1x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75"/></a></div><div class="cn8s3o7" style="--cn8s3o7-0:16px;--cn8s3o7-1:0px"><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/1"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/2"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/3"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/4"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="l1a1dqu7" style="--l1a1dqu7-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關行情" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-relate-product.
445svg"/><span>相關行情</span></div><div class="n1jgsfi4">#目前無相關行情資料</div></div></div></div></div></div><div data-index="1" class="slick-slide" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true" style="outline:none;width:14.285714285714286%"><div><div style="--p1ppj68-0:#f6f8fc;--p1ppj68-1:0 0 6px 0 rgba(0, 47, 143, 0.1);--p1ppj68-2:640px;margin:0px 8px" class="p1ppj68"><img alt="ribbons" loading="lazy" width="77" height="84" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="r166uj18" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/label-ribbons.png"/><div class="t1ac3lzm" style="--t1ac3lzm-0:url(/assets/images/news_default_images/1.webp)"><div class="b114cned"></div><div class="t1mmubal"><div class="t1ajqf7"><h3 class="hkelhgw" style="--hkelhgw-0:28px"><a href="/poptopic/270">Fed以12票全數通過升息一碼  3年來首度!料12月再升息一碼</a></h3><button aria-label="follow" style="--b1hnyx5d-0:#fff;--b1hnyx5d-1:1px solid #e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-2:#e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-3:url(&#x27;/assets/icons/icon-add-check.svg&#x27;)" class="b1hnyx5d">追蹤</button></div><div class="s1a7rr2i"><p>美國聯準會(Fed) 週三 (9/16)召開聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議,以 12 票對 0 票通過升息一碼決議,符合市場普遍預期。儘管官員會前釋出的政策訊息一度分歧,市場仍已反映超過 90% 的升息機率。會議將聯邦資金利率目標區間上調至 3.75% 至 4.00%。這是央行自 2023 年 7 月以來的首次升息紀錄,也是新任主席華許 (Kevin Warsh) 接掌 Fed 後的首度政策調升。最新利率點狀圖顯示,多數官員預估今年底利率將升至 4% 至 4.25%,意味年內仍可能再升息 1 碼。</p>
446
447<p>FOMC 在會後聲明中表示:「通膨仍處於高檔。今天的政策行動將有助於通膨更及時回到委員會的 2% 目標。委員會將實現物價穩定。」</p>
448
449<p><em><strong>點狀圖暗示年內可能再升1碼</strong></em></p>
450
451<p>Fed 同步公布的最新經濟預測顯示,18 名與會官員中,有 16 人預期今年至少還會升息 1 次,其中 4 人認為可能再升息 2 次;另有 2 人預期本次升息後便停止升息。</p>
452
453<p>Fed 主席華許自上任後選擇不提交個人利率預測,因此未列入點狀圖。</p>
454
455<p>至於後續政策路徑,官員並未預估 2027 年之後繼續升息,而是預期 2028 年降息 1 次,2029 年至少再降息 1 次。</p>
456
457<p>不過,2027 年的政策展望仍存在明顯分歧。8 名官員預期當年還會升息,6 人認為利率將維持不變,另有 4 人預估降息。</p>
458
459<p><em><strong>通膨預測上修 估2029年才回到目標</strong></em></p>
460
461<p>Fed小幅上調今年通膨預測,預估整體個人消費支出 (PCE) 物價指數為 3.7%,剔除食品與能源的核心 PCE 為 3.4%,兩者均較 6 月預測提高 0.1 個百分點。</p>
462
463<p>Fed預估,2027 年整體 PCE 通膨率將降至 2.3%,核心 PCE 則降至 2.5%,但通膨要到 2029 年才會回到 2% 目標。</p>
464
465<p>這次升息的背景不同於典型緊縮循環。伊朗戰爭推升燃料價格,加上關稅影響持續發酵,這類供給面造成的通膨通常不會促使Fed立即採取行動。</p>
466
467<p>然而,官員擔心能源價格若長時間維持高檔,可能推升通膨預期,並逐步擴散至其他商品與服務。經濟學家也認為,人工智慧 (AI) 投資持續擴大,可能成為另一項通膨因素。Fed同時將失業率預測由 6 月估計的 4.3%下調至 4.1%,反映勞動市場趨於穩定,也提高決策官員採取升息行動的空間。</p>
468
469<p>官員亦記取新冠疫情後誤判通膨為「暫時性」的經驗。當時Fed預期供需失衡造成的物價壓力將自行消退,實際上通膨其後升至 40 年高點,Fed才開始收緊政策。</p>
470
471<p><strong>Fed 9月聲明全文+最新經濟預測</strong></p>
472
473<p>&nbsp;</p>
474
475<p>Fed表示,美國經濟活動持續以穩健步調擴張。儘管地緣政治情勢等因素使經濟前景仍籠罩高度不確定性,但國內支出保持韌性,生產力成長強勁,企業資本投資也相當熱絡。</p>
476
477<p>勞動市場方面,Fed指出,新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率則變化不大,顯示就業市場目前仍大致維持穩定。</p>
478
479<p>Fed坦言,通膨依然偏高,這次升息將有助於使通膨更快回到2%目標,並以「委員會將實現物價穩定」的強硬措辭,展現持續對抗通膨的決心。此外,Fed將繼續維持銀行體系準備金充裕的政策。</p>
480
481<p><strong>Fed 9月、7月聲明比一比:從按兵不動轉向升息</strong></p>
482
483<p>&nbsp;</p>
484
485<p>Fed前次會議決定維持利率不變,本次則改為升息1碼,並新增<em>「今日的政策行動將有助於讓通膨更及時地回到2%目標」</em>的說法,顯示官員認為有必要透過進一步緊縮政策,加快壓低通膨的速度。</p>
486
487<p>聲明最後更直接表示,「委員會將實現物價穩定」,語氣明顯強於過去常見的「致力讓通膨回到2%目標」。<em>這項修改凸顯Fed希望向市場傳達明確訊息,即使部分物價壓力源自政策難以左右的外部因素,央行仍將採取行動控制通膨。</em></p>
488
489<p><strong>刪除中東衝突與供給衝擊說法</strong></p>
490
491<p>在經濟評估方面,Fed仍認為經濟活動正以穩健步調擴張,但不再直接將高度不確定性歸因於「中東衝突」,而是改以範圍更廣的「地緣政治發展」描述,同時新增美國國內支出保持韌性的說法。</p>
492
493<p>Fed也維持生產力成長強勁的評估,並將資本投資由「強勁」改稱「穩健」。至於<em>勞動市場,聲明並未出現明顯變化</em>,仍稱新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率也變化不大。</p>
494
495<p>通膨段落的變化更加值得注意。前次聲明指出,通膨偏高部分反映供給衝擊推升能源等特定領域的價格;本次則完全刪除這項解釋,僅保留「通膨仍處高檔」,隨即強調升息有助於使通膨更快回到2%。</p>
496
497<p>這項調整顯示,<em>Fed不再著重說明通膨是由能源與供應面衝擊造成,而是將論述重心轉向央行必須採取的政策行動,淡化外部因素可能只是暫時推高物價的意味。</em></p>
498
499<p><strong>
499三張反對票消失 Fed恢復全票共識</strong></p>
500
501<p>表決結果也反映Fed內部立場出現整合。前次會議以9票贊成、3票反對通過按兵不動的決策,反對者哈瑪克(Beth Hammack)、卡什卡里(Neel Kashkari)與蘿根(Lorie Logan)當時均主張升息1碼。</p>
502
503<p>隨著Fed本次採取3人先前主張的升息行動,決策獲得12票一致支持,反對票全部消失。這顯示在經濟保持韌性、通膨仍然偏高的背景下,Fed官員已對進一步收緊貨幣政策形成高度共識。</p>
504
505<p><strong>Fed升息1碼惹怒川普 喊話利率應降至1%以下</strong></p>
506
507<p>聯準會 (Fed) 週三 (16 日) 宣布2023年以來首次升息後,美國總統川普隨即要求央行迅速將利率降至1%或更低。白宮亦批評這項決定「相當令人遺憾」,認為升息缺乏充分的經濟依據,但未直接批評Fed主席華許。</p>
508
509<p>川普會後在Truth Social發文表示,美國利率「應該降至1%或更低」,理由是美國擁有全球最佳信用。他並以全大寫文字要求:「為美國降低利率,而且要快!」</p>
510
511<p>川普聲稱,美國正在支撐全球多數國家,這種情況不能繼續下去。他並以美國吸引大量新增投資,以及對許多國家存在貿易逆差為由,主張美國應適用更低利率。</p>
512
513<p>白宮發言人德賽 (Kush Desai) 接受福斯新聞訪問時表示,川普已清楚說明希望利率朝哪個方向移動,而Fed當天決定升息,從政府立場來看「相當令人遺憾」,也缺乏特別有力的經濟依據。</p>
514
515<p>德賽指出,目前並非拜登政府時期,川普與共和黨沒有投入數兆美元的新冠疫情刺激支出,因此不存在需要透過提高利率加以抑制的失控總需求。</p>
516
517<p>儘管白宮反對這次升息,德賽仍表示,川普相信Fed應保持獨立,但這不影響總統在認為政策出現問題時公開表達意見的權利。</p>
518
519<p>川普近期已重新加大對Fed的施壓力道。不到兩週前,他曾警告,如果Fed不降息,可能停止與對美國享有貿易順差的國家進行貿易,涉及美國多數主要貿易夥伴及其他數十個國家。</p>
520
521<p>不過,川普與白宮官員目前仍未直接抨擊由川普任命的華許。華許接替鮑爾出任Fed主席後,川普對央行的公開施壓一度減弱,如今情況可能隨著Fed轉向升息而改變,華許也將面臨更大的白宮政治壓力。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/華許" title="華許" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>華許</span></a><a href="/tag/聯準會" title="聯準會" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>聯準會</span></a><a href="/tag/Fed" title="Fed" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>Fed</span></a><a href="/tag/FOMC" title="FOMC" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>FOMC</span></a><a href="/tag/升息" title="升息" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>升息</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="cxebglh"><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關新聞" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-hot-news.svg"/><span>相關新聞</span><a class="rqwyzr9" href="/poptopic/270">看更多<img alt="Next" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75 1x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75"/></a></div><div class="cn8s3o7" style="--cn8s3o7-0:16px;--cn8s3o7-1:0px"><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/1"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/2"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/3"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/4"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="l1a1dqu7" style="--l1a1dqu7-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關行情" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-relate-product.
521svg"/><span>相關行情</span></div><div class="n1jgsfi4">#目前無相關行情資料</div></div></div></div></div></div><div data-index="2" class="slick-slide" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true" style="outline:none;width:14.285714285714286%"><div><div style="--p1ppj68-0:#f6f8fc;--p1ppj68-1:0 0 6px 0 rgba(0, 47, 143, 0.1);--p1ppj68-2:640px;margin:0px 8px" class="p1ppj68"><img alt="ribbons" loading="lazy" width="77" height="84" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="r166uj18" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/label-ribbons.png"/><div class="t1ac3lzm" style="--t1ac3lzm-0:url(/assets/images/news_default_images/1.webp)"><div class="b114cned"></div><div class="t1mmubal"><div class="t1ajqf7"><h3 class="hkelhgw" style="--hkelhgw-0:28px"><a href="/poptopic/269">【AI放緩論】5000億美元的噪音</a></h3><button aria-label="follow" style="--b1hnyx5d-0:#fff;--b1hnyx5d-1:1px solid #e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-2:#e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-3:url(&#x27;/assets/icons/icon-add-check.svg&#x27;)" class="b1hnyx5d">追蹤</button></div><div class="s1a7rr2i"><p>9月14日,軟銀集團收盤大跌11%,費城半導體指數下跌近6%,SK海力士跌7.6%,阿斯麥跌7.25%,輝達跌3.4%、英特爾、美光跌超5%,康寧暴跌13.74%,Coherent跌超12%。</p>
522
523<p>初步統計顯示,全球半導體和AI算力硬體產業鏈總市值一夜之間蒸發超5000億美元。</p>
524
525<p>引發這場拋售的,是三個人在週末說了幾句話。</p>
526
527<p><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>放緩論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong></p>
528
529<p>Anthropic CEO阿莫代伊發布長文《我們必須為前沿定速》,主張以第三方&ldquo;員工級&rdquo;系統訪問等手段放緩最強模型迭代; OpenAI CEO奧爾特曼公開呼應&ldquo;同意定速前沿&rdquo;,並明確2026年不推進IPO; 馬斯克轉評&ldquo;達里奧說得對&rdquo;。</p>
530
531<p>三個人,幾句話,5000億美元一夜蒸發。</p>
532
533<p>首先要釐清一個最基本的事實:阿莫代伊等人擔憂的AI風險,和當下絕大多數AI產業、絕大多數國家的AI發展,根本不在同一個維度上。</p>
534
535<p>他們談論的風險,是最前沿極限模型的湧現性風險&mdash;&mdash;是AI智能體自主突破沙盒、主動發起網路攻擊、遞迴自我改進帶來的失控可能。</p>
536
537<p>這種風險只存在於OpenAI、Anthropic少數幾家實驗室的最頂尖測試環境中,是人類摸到智能邊界時的前沿焦慮,屬於超遠期的尾部風險。</p>
538
539<p>如果只把這場爭論當成技術安全問題,那就看得太淺了。</p>
540
541<p>這套邏輯的底層,其實和當年核不擴散體系的誕生幾乎沒什麼區別:領跑者先掌握了顛覆性技術,一邊擔憂技術反噬自身,一邊又怕對手追平力量格局,於是就用&ldquo;全球公共安全&rdquo;的名義,建立一套固化自身優勢的管控規則。</p>
542
543<p>今天的AI放緩論,美國頭部實驗室率先摸到了前沿AI的能力邊界,現在提出要建立&ldquo;高危閾值標準&rdquo;&ldquo;第三方獨立審計&rdquo;&ldquo;全球協同限速&rdquo;,名義是防範AI失控災難,實際效果必然是&mdash;&mdash;由美國定義什麼是&ldquo;高危&rdquo;,由美國主導審核權,誰摸到了這條線,誰就要接受限制、放慢腳步。</p>
544
545<p>這也是為什麼追趕者天然對這套敘事保持警惕的原因。當你的模型能力距離高危閾值還有很遠的時候,接受這套規則等於單方面自廢武功。AI治理從來就不是單純的技術問題,本質更是大國博弈的工具。在這種格局下,指望全球形成統一的AI減速共識,無異於天方夜譚。</p>
546
547<p><strong>世紀大和解?</strong><strong> </strong><strong>馬斯克奧特曼聯手踩剎車,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>取消上市:</strong><strong>AI </strong><strong>三巨頭在怕什麼?</strong></p>
548
549<p>當科技史上最水火不容的三位死對頭突然坐在同一張長椅上、以完全相同的口吻呼籲&ldquo;給 AI 踩剎車&rdquo;時,全人類應該感到欣慰,還是後背發涼? 2026 年 9 月 12 日至 16 日,全球人工智慧產業迎來了一場戲劇性拉滿的&ldquo;世紀大地震&rdquo;:Anthropic 首席執行官達里奧&middot;
549阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)發表了一篇長達 3,800 字的警世長文《我們必須為前沿技術設定節奏》(We Must Pace the Frontier),嚴厲警告遞歸式自我改進(Recursive Self-Improvement)正在讓人工智慧脫離人類掌控,可能在未來 6 到 12 個月內引發無法逆轉的生存危機。</p>
550
551<p>如果這只是一家自詡&ldquo;對齊原教旨主義&rdquo;實驗室的常規悲鳴,輿論或許早已習以為常。 但戲劇性的一幕緊隨其後:正在法庭上與 OpenAI 瘋狂撕扯的 xAI 掌門人埃隆&middot;馬斯克(Elon Musk)罕見公開轉發並力挺:&ldquo;達里奧是對的(Dario is right)&rdquo;; 緊接著,OpenAI 首席執行官山姆&middot;奧特曼(Sam Altman)不僅全盤背書限速倡議,更在受訪時拋出一記震動全球資本市場的超級重磅炸彈:<strong>因前沿安全與治理考量,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>決定取消原定於</strong><strong> 2026 </strong><strong>年進行的首次公開募股(</strong><strong>IPO</strong><strong>)!</strong><strong> </strong>隨後,微軟納德拉與谷歌 DeepMind 哈薩比斯相繼發表聲援。</p>
552
553<p>一時間,全球科技股應聲巨震,納斯達克 AI 板塊估值虛火被當場扯下。 然而,就在主流媒體高呼&ldquo;矽谷巨頭終於良心發現拯救人類&rdquo;的同時,全球開源社區與反壟斷學者卻發出了尖銳的嘲弄:當燒了上千億美元的閉源巨頭發現算力撞牆、電網告急、千億估值無法兌現,且身後跟著步步緊逼的開源狼群時,&ldquo;以人類之名踩剎車&rdquo;,究竟是純粹的慈悲,還是一場教科書級別的合謀壟斷與監管俘獲?</p>
554
555<p><strong>黃仁勳駁斥</strong><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>末日論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong><strong>,特朗普電話助陣美國競速</strong></p>
556
557<p>2026年9月14日,洛杉磯All-In Summit現場。 輝達CEO黃仁勳正與Chamath、Jason、Sacks、Friedberg四位&ldquo;Besties&rdquo;深入對談,突然手機響起。 他接通並切到揚聲器,全場聽清了來電者的聲音&mdash;&mdash;美國總統特朗普。</p>
558
559<p>川普開場就調侃:&ldquo;你能設計世界上最複雜的晶片,卻搞不定免提。 &ldquo;隨即切入正題:&rdquo;機器人不會接管世界,AI也不會接管世界。 整件事都是騙局。 &ldquo;他強調數據中心&rdquo;太棒了,讓人和州都變富,是未來20-25年的石油&ldquo;,比互聯網更重要; 反對聲浪正中&ldquo;不想看到它發生的人&rdquo;下懷,可能是政客,也可能是中國。 &ldquo;我們不會讓那發生。&rdquo;</p>
560
561<p>黃仁勳回應:&ldquo;我們不會讓那發生,先生。 我們要確保美國AI競賽中人人都贏&mdash;&mdash;每個產業、每家公司、每個州、每一個人。 &ldquo;現場掌聲雷動。&nbsp;</p>
562
563<p>這通突如其來的電話,把近期愈演愈烈的&ldquo;AI末日論&rdquo;爭論推到了聚光燈下。</p>
564
565<p>末日敘事的源頭與黃仁勳的拆解</p>
566
567<p>兩週前,比爾&middot;蓋茲發布一篇長文,對AI時代的動盪和危機發出了嚴厲的警告。</p>
568
569<p>上週末,Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei發布長文《We Must Pace the Frontier》,呼籲前沿實驗室協調放緩能力提升的速度。 理由包括:AI開始幫助構建下一代AI(遞迴自我改進,RSI),以及OpenAI測試中的代理&ldquo;失控&rdquo;攻擊Hugging Face等事件。 他主張第三方評估者深度嵌入實驗室、行業標準和全球協調,部分得到Sam Altman、Elon Musk等人的呼應。 此前Anthropic研究員Jacob Coxon離職警告,另有聲音稱未來十年AI滅絕人類概率超10%。 市場隨之震盪,晶片股承壓,網路安全股卻大漲。</p>
570
571<p>黃仁勳的回應清晰而鋒利。 他首先肯定安全&ldquo;至關重要&rdquo;,吹哨者勇氣可嘉&mdash;&mdash;Coxon公開表達擔憂需要勇氣。 但他把兩件事嚴格分開:內部真實問題的舉報是正當的; 對未來做出&ldquo;科學預測&rdquo;卻不是。 &ldquo;那些預測雖然出自科學家之口,卻沒有建立在科學上...... 這個數字是編出ä¾
571†çš„。 這些人受過良好教育,被稱為研究人員,也在實驗室工作。 把這些詞放在一起,再拋出一個預測,聽起來就很驚人、很可怕,但不應該這樣做,這是不負責任的。 &rdquo;</p>
572
573<p>他逐一清算過去幾年被證偽的預言:有人說五年內放射科醫生將被AI完全取代,結果需求反而更高,AI只是輔助讀片; 有人預測6-12個月內90%代碼由AI生成、6-9個月內50%初級崗位消失、白領崗位明年減半、GPT-2和Llama 3太危險不能發布...... 這些統統落空。 &ldquo;必須有人對這些愚蠢的預測負責。&rdquo; 真正基於科學與證據的方向,恰恰與恐慌相反。</p>
574
575<p>對RSI,他去神祕化:它不過是上下文學習、技能、反思、強化學習、合成數據、LoRA微調等常規方法的集合。 公司內部可以持續做,但發布前必須評估、測試、檢查回退。 實驗室從研究轉向工程後,控制力會通過方法、工具和實踐增強。 &ldquo;當然不(會失控)。&rdquo;</p>
576
577<p><strong>超級智能已至,但在窄域</strong></p>
578
579<p>黃仁勳更進一步:&ldquo;我認為我們已經到了(AGI)。 &hellip;&hellip; 超級智能也是。 &ldquo;他給出具體定義:自動駕駛不需要給你煎蛋,只要事故率是人類的十分之一,那就是超級智能; 蛋白質合成與虛擬篩選領域,AI已超人類。 窄域超級智能不是科幻終點,而是正在發生的現實。</p>
580
581<p>這與他一貫的工程視角一致。 安全與領先不是二選一。 美國可以既快又安全地領導。 真正的問題集中在擁有最多算力的前沿實驗室&mdash;&mdash;危險先出現在那裡合理。 正確做法是根因分析、更好的沙箱、監控與第三方評估(類似金融審計),而不是用籠統末日敘事踩剎車。 如果某實驗室真失控,其他工程師可以進去幫忙; 但他懷疑這些頂尖團隊最終能自己解決。</p>
582
583<p><strong>今天的</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>,正處在經濟價值逐步兌現的早期階段。</strong></p>
584
585<p>IDC預測2026年全球企業AI支出將達到9400億美元,到2029年增長至2.1萬億美元。 這不是炒概念的估值,是實實在在的企業開支、產業投入。</p>
586
587<p>AI產業的基本盤,是嵌入到製造業、醫療、金融、能源、國防所有領域的生產力底座。 社會發展的內生需求,決定了AI只會越用越廣、越用越深,不可能因為頂層的安全爭議就整體停滯。</p>
588
589<p>很多人混淆了兩件事:前沿基礎模型的極限能力爬坡,和AI全產業的落地普及,是兩條完全不同的賽道。哪怕最頂尖的模型真的放緩了能力迭代,整個AI產業鏈的增長邏輯也不會受到根本影響。</p>
590
591<p>就像當年晶片製程衝到3nm、2nm遇到瓶頸,但全球數字經濟的增長並沒有因此停下,反而在應用層面開出了更多花。對追趕者來說更是如此。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/AI放緩論" title="AI放緩論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI放緩論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI末日論" title="AI末日論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI末日論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI減速" title="AI減速" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI減速</span></a><a href="/tag/資本投入" title="資本投入" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>資本投入</span></a><a href="/tag/奧特曼" title="奧特曼" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>奧特曼</span></a><a href="/tag/放緩" title="放緩" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>放緩</span></a><a href="/tag/AI風險" title="AI風險" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI風險</span></a><a href="/tag/AI泡沬" title="AI泡沬" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI泡沬</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="cxebglh"><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關新聞" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-hot-news.svg"/><span>相關新聞</span><a class="rqwyzr9" href="/poptopic/269">看更多<img alt="Next" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75 1x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75"/></a></div><div class="cn8s3o7" style="--cn8s3o7-0:16px;--cn8s3o7-1:0px"><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/1"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/2"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/3"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/4"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="l1a1dqu7" style="--l1a1dqu7-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關行情" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-relate-product.
591svg"/><span>相關行情</span></div><div class="n1jgsfi4">#目前無相關行情資料</div></div></div></div></div></div><div data-index="3" tabindex="-1" class="slick-slide slick-cloned" aria-hidden="true" style="width:14.285714285714286%"><div><div style="--p1ppj68-0:#f6f8fc;--p1ppj68-1:0 0 6px 0 rgba(0, 47, 143, 0.1);--p1ppj68-2:640px;margin:0px 8px" class="p1ppj68"><img alt="ribbons" loading="lazy" width="77" height="84" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="r166uj18" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/label-ribbons.png"/><div class="t1ac3lzm" style="--t1ac3lzm-0:url(/assets/images/news_default_images/1.webp)"><div class="b114cned"></div><div class="t1mmubal"><div class="t1ajqf7"><h3 class="hkelhgw" style="--hkelhgw-0:28px"><a href="/poptopic/271">川習會登場 兩國聚焦關稅、大宗採購、AI與稀土等議題</a></h3><button aria-label="follow" style="--b1hnyx5d-0:#fff;--b1hnyx5d-1:1px solid #e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-2:#e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-3:url(&#x27;/assets/icons/icon-add-check.svg&#x27;)" class="b1hnyx5d">追蹤</button></div><div class="s1a7rr2i"><p>中國國家主席習近平應美國總統川普邀請,於2026年9月23日至25日對美國進行國是訪問。白宮以高規格禮遇接待,行程涵蓋軍禮歡迎、閱兵、國宴以及雙邊會談。</p>
592
593<p>本次峰會為雙方管理地緣與經貿風險的關鍵平台。在經貿與科技層面,兩國聚焦關稅減免、大宗採購、AI算力管制與關鍵礦物供應等議題。雙方團隊已推動成立「中美貿易委員會」,並建立 AI 安全對話機制以管控技術風險。在安全領域,台灣議題仍是北京不可逾越的紅線,對台軍售案與台海局勢成為外交博弈焦點。</p>
594
595<p>整體而言,峰會反映美中關係正從美國單極霸權轉向「談判雙極」的管控制度。雙方試圖在零和競爭中建立防範衝突的護欄,達成「管理型穩定」,而非戰略性緩和。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/川習會" title="川習會" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>川習會</span></a><a href="/tag/川普" title="川普" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>川普</span></a><a href="/tag/習近平" title="習近平" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>習近平</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="cxebglh"><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關新聞" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-hot-news.svg"/><span>相關新聞</span><a class="rqwyzr9" href="/poptopic/271">看更多<img alt="Next" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75 1x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75"/></a></div><div class="cn8s3o7" style="--cn8s3o7-0:16px;--cn8s3o7-1:0px"><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/1"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/2"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/3"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/4"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="l1a1dqu7" style="--l1a1dqu7-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關行情" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-relate-product.
595svg"/><span>相關行情</span></div><div class="n1jgsfi4">#目前無相關行情資料</div></div></div></div></div></div><div data-index="4" tabindex="-1" class="slick-slide slick-cloned" aria-hidden="true" style="width:14.285714285714286%"><div><div style="--p1ppj68-0:#f6f8fc;--p1ppj68-1:0 0 6px 0 rgba(0, 47, 143, 0.1);--p1ppj68-2:640px;margin:0px 8px" class="p1ppj68"><img alt="ribbons" loading="lazy" width="77" height="84" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="r166uj18" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/label-ribbons.png"/><div class="t1ac3lzm" style="--t1ac3lzm-0:url(/assets/images/news_default_images/1.webp)"><div class="b114cned"></div><div class="t1mmubal"><div class="t1ajqf7"><h3 class="hkelhgw" style="--hkelhgw-0:28px"><a href="/poptopic/270">Fed以12票全數通過升息一碼  3年來首度!料12月再升息一碼</a></h3><button aria-label="follow" style="--b1hnyx5d-0:#fff;--b1hnyx5d-1:1px solid #e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-2:#e03f19;--b1hnyx5d-3:url(&#x27;/assets/icons/icon-add-check.svg&#x27;)" class="b1hnyx5d">追蹤</button></div><div class="s1a7rr2i"><p>美國聯準會(Fed) 週三 (9/16)召開聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議,以 12 票對 0 票通過升息一碼決議,符合市場普遍預期。儘管官員會前釋出的政策訊息一度分歧,市場仍已反映超過 90% 的升息機率。會議將聯邦資金利率目標區間上調至 3.75% 至 4.00%。這是央行自 2023 年 7 月以來的首次升息紀錄,也是新任主席華許 (Kevin Warsh) 接掌 Fed 後的首度政策調升。最新利率點狀圖顯示,多數官員預估今年底利率將升至 4% 至 4.25%,意味年內仍可能再升息 1 碼。</p>
596
597<p>FOMC 在會後聲明中表示:「通膨仍處於高檔。今天的政策行動將有助於通膨更及時回到委員會的 2% 目標。委員會將實現物價穩定。」</p>
598
599<p><em><strong>點狀圖暗示年內可能再升1碼</strong></em></p>
600
601<p>Fed 同步公布的最新經濟預測顯示,18 名與會官員中,有 16 人預期今年至少還會升息 1 次,其中 4 人認為可能再升息 2 次;另有 2 人預期本次升息後便停止升息。</p>
602
603<p>Fed 主席華許自上任後選擇不提交個人利率預測,因此未列入點狀圖。</p>
604
605<p>至於後續政策路徑,官員並未預估 2027 年之後繼續升息,而是預期 2028 年降息 1 次,2029 年至少再降息 1 次。</p>
606
607<p>不過,2027 年的政策展望仍存在明顯分歧。8 名官員預期當年還會升息,6 人認為利率將維持不變,另有 4 人預估降息。</p>
608
609<p><em><strong>通膨預測上修 估2029年才回到目標</strong></em></p>
610
611<p>Fed小幅上調今年通膨預測,預估整體個人消費支出 (PCE) 物價指數為 3.7%,剔除食品與能源的核心 PCE 為 3.4%,兩者均較 6 月預測提高 0.1 個百分點。</p>
612
613<p>Fed預估,2027 年整體 PCE 通膨率將降至 2.3%,核心 PCE 則降至 2.5%,但通膨要到 2029 年才會回到 2% 目標。</p>
614
615<p>這次升息的背景不同於典型緊縮循環。伊朗戰爭推升燃料價格,加上關稅影響持續發酵,這類供給面造成的通膨通常不會促使Fed立即採取行動。</p>
616
617<p>然而,官員擔心能源價格若長時間維持高檔,可能推升通膨預期,並逐步擴散至其他商品與服務。經濟學家也認為,人工智慧 (AI) 投資持續擴大,可能成為另一項通膨因素。Fed同時將失業率預測由 6 月估計的 4.3%下調至 4.1%,反映勞動市場趨於穩定,也提高決策官員採取升息行動的空間。</p>
618
619<p>官員亦記取新冠疫情後誤判通膨為「暫時性」的經驗。當時Fed預期供需失衡造成的物價壓力將自行消退,實際上通膨其後升至 40 年高點,Fed才開始收緊政策。</p>
620
621<p><strong>Fed 9月聲明全文+最新經濟預測</strong></p>
622
623<p>&nbsp;</p>
624
625<p>Fed表示,美國經濟活動持續以穩健步調擴張。儘管地緣政治情勢等因素使經濟前景仍籠罩高度不確定性,但國內支出保持韌性,生產力成長強勁,企業資本投資也相當熱絡。</p>
626
627<p>勞動市場方面,Fed指出,新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率則變化不大,顯示就業市場目前仍大致維持穩定。</p>
628
629<p>Fed坦言,通膨依然偏高,這次升息將有助於使通膨更快回到2%目標,並以「委員會將實現物價穩定」的強硬措辭,展現持續對抗通膨的決心。此外,Fed將繼續維持銀行體系準備金充裕的政策。</p>
630
631<p><strong>Fed 9月、7月聲明比一比:從按兵不動轉向升息</strong></p>
632
633<p>&nbsp;</p>
634
635<p>Fed前次會議決定維持利率不變,本次則改為升息1碼,並新增<em>「今日的政策行動將有助於讓通膨更及時地回到2%目標」</em>的說法,顯示官員認為有必要透過進一步緊縮政策,加快壓低通膨的速度。</p>
636
637<p>聲明最後更直接表示,「委員會將實現物價穩定」,語氣明顯強於過去常見的「致力讓通膨回到2%目標」。<em>這項修改凸顯Fed希望向市場傳達明確訊息,即使部分物價壓力源自政策難以左右的外部因素,央行仍將採取行動控制通膨。</em></p>
638
639<p><strong>刪除中東衝突與供給衝擊說法</strong></p>
640
641<p>在經濟評估方面,Fed仍認為經濟活動正以穩健步調擴張,但不再直接將高度不確定性歸因於「中東衝突」,而是改以範圍更廣的「地緣政治發展」描述,同時新增美國國內支出保持韌性的說法。</p>
642
643<p>Fed也維持生產力成長強勁的評估,並將資本投資由「強勁」改稱「穩健」。至於<em>勞動市場,聲明並未出現明顯變化</em>,仍稱新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率也變化不大。</p>
644
645<p>通膨段落的變化更加值得注意。前次聲明指出,通膨偏高部分反映供給衝擊推升能源等特定領域的價格;本次則完全刪除這項解釋,僅保留「通膨仍處高檔」,隨即強調升息有助於使通膨更快回到2%。</p>
646
647<p>這項調整顯示,<em>Fed不再著重說明通膨是由能源與供應面衝擊造成,而是將論述重心轉向央行必須採取的政策行動,淡化外部因素可能只是暫時推高物價的意味。</em></p>
648
649<p><strong>
649三張反對票消失 Fed恢復全票共識</strong></p>
650
651<p>表決結果也反映Fed內部立場出現整合。前次會議以9票贊成、3票反對通過按兵不動的決策,反對者哈瑪克(Beth Hammack)、卡什卡里(Neel Kashkari)與蘿根(Lorie Logan)當時均主張升息1碼。</p>
652
653<p>隨著Fed本次採取3人先前主張的升息行動,決策獲得12票一致支持,反對票全部消失。這顯示在經濟保持韌性、通膨仍然偏高的背景下,Fed官員已對進一步收緊貨幣政策形成高度共識。</p>
654
655<p><strong>Fed升息1碼惹怒川普 喊話利率應降至1%以下</strong></p>
656
657<p>聯準會 (Fed) 週三 (16 日) 宣布2023年以來首次升息後,美國總統川普隨即要求央行迅速將利率降至1%或更低。白宮亦批評這項決定「相當令人遺憾」,認為升息缺乏充分的經濟依據,但未直接批評Fed主席華許。</p>
658
659<p>川普會後在Truth Social發文表示,美國利率「應該降至1%或更低」,理由是美國擁有全球最佳信用。他並以全大寫文字要求:「為美國降低利率,而且要快!」</p>
660
661<p>川普聲稱,美國正在支撐全球多數國家,這種情況不能繼續下去。他並以美國吸引大量新增投資,以及對許多國家存在貿易逆差為由,主張美國應適用更低利率。</p>
662
663<p>白宮發言人德賽 (Kush Desai) 接受福斯新聞訪問時表示,川普已清楚說明希望利率朝哪個方向移動,而Fed當天決定升息,從政府立場來看「相當令人遺憾」,也缺乏特別有力的經濟依據。</p>
664
665<p>德賽指出,目前並非拜登政府時期,川普與共和黨沒有投入數兆美元的新冠疫情刺激支出,因此不存在需要透過提高利率加以抑制的失控總需求。</p>
666
667<p>儘管白宮反對這次升息,德賽仍表示,川普相信Fed應保持獨立,但這不影響總統在認為政策出現問題時公開表達意見的權利。</p>
668
669<p>川普近期已重新加大對Fed的施壓力道。不到兩週前,他曾警告,如果Fed不降息,可能停止與對美國享有貿易順差的國家進行貿易,涉及美國多數主要貿易夥伴及其他數十個國家。</p>
670
671<p>不過,川普與白宮官員目前仍未直接抨擊由川普任命的華許。華許接替鮑爾出任Fed主席後,川普對央行的公開施壓一度減弱,如今情況可能隨著Fed轉向升息而改變,華許也將面臨更大的白宮政治壓力。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/華許" title="華許" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>華許</span></a><a href="/tag/聯準會" title="聯準會" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>聯準會</span></a><a href="/tag/Fed" title="Fed" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>Fed</span></a><a href="/tag/FOMC" title="FOMC" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>FOMC</span></a><a href="/tag/升息" title="升息" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>升息</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="cxebglh"><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關新聞" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-hot-news.svg"/><span>相關新聞</span><a class="rqwyzr9" href="/poptopic/270">看更多<img alt="Next" loading="lazy" width="7" height="10" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75 1x" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fassets%2Ficons%2Farrows%2Ficon-arrow-right-red.png&amp;w=16&amp;q=75"/></a></div><div class="cn8s3o7" style="--cn8s3o7-0:16px;--cn8s3o7-1:0px"><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/1"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/2"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/3"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="c1r0y1oe"><div width="10" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:10px;--cxofmwr-1:#515c69"><div width="4" color="white" class="cxofmwr" style="--cxofmwr-0:4px;--cxofmwr-1:white"></div></div><div class="cenhhvs" style="--cenhhvs-0:12px;--cenhhvs-1:16px;--cenhhvs-2:1px solid #e2e8f1;--cenhhvs-3:50px"><div class="time">00:00</div><a href="/news/id/4"><h3 font-size="18" disabled="" class="twpk2yl" style="--twpk2yl-0:#848d97;--twpk2yl-1:18px;--twpk2yl-2:1;--twpk2yl-3:not-allowed;--twpk2yl-4:#848d97">目前暫無相關熱門新聞...</h3></a></div></div><div class="l1a1dqu7" style="--l1a1dqu7-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="tp35a5n"><img alt="相關行情" loading="lazy" width="26" height="26" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" src="/assets/icons/icon-relate-product.
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672
673<p>初步統計顯示,全球半導體和AI算力硬體產業鏈總市值一夜之間蒸發超5000億美元。</p>
674
675<p>引發這場拋售的,是三個人在週末說了幾句話。</p>
676
677<p><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>放緩論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong></p>
678
679<p>Anthropic CEO阿莫代伊發布長文《我們必須為前沿定速》,主張以第三方&ldquo;員工級&rdquo;系統訪問等手段放緩最強模型迭代; OpenAI CEO奧爾特曼公開呼應&ldquo;同意定速前沿&rdquo;,並明確2026年不推進IPO; 馬斯克轉評&ldquo;達里奧說得對&rdquo;。</p>
680
681<p>三個人,幾句話,5000億美元一夜蒸發。</p>
682
683<p>首先要釐清一個最基本的事實:阿莫代伊等人擔憂的AI風險,和當下絕大多數AI產業、絕大多數國家的AI發展,根本不在同一個維度上。</p>
684
685<p>他們談論的風險,是最前沿極限模型的湧現性風險&mdash;&mdash;是AI智能體自主突破沙盒、主動發起網路攻擊、遞迴自我改進帶來的失控可能。</p>
686
687<p>這種風險只存在於OpenAI、Anthropic少數幾家實驗室的最頂尖測試環境中,是人類摸到智能邊界時的前沿焦慮,屬於超遠期的尾部風險。</p>
688
689<p>如果只把這場爭論當成技術安全問題,那就看得太淺了。</p>
690
691<p>這套邏輯的底層,其實和當年核不擴散體系的誕生幾乎沒什麼區別:領跑者先掌握了顛覆性技術,一邊擔憂技術反噬自身,一邊又怕對手追平力量格局,於是就用&ldquo;全球公共安全&rdquo;的名義,建立一套固化自身優勢的管控規則。</p>
692
693<p>今天的AI放緩論,美國頭部實驗室率先摸到了前沿AI的能力邊界,現在提出要建立&ldquo;高危閾值標準&rdquo;&ldquo;第三方獨立審計&rdquo;&ldquo;全球協同限速&rdquo;,名義是防範AI失控災難,實際效果必然是&mdash;&mdash;由美國定義什麼是&ldquo;高危&rdquo;,由美國主導審核權,誰摸到了這條線,誰就要接受限制、放慢腳步。</p>
694
695<p>這也是為什麼追趕者天然對這套敘事保持警惕的原因。當你的模型能力距離高危閾值還有很遠的時候,接受這套規則等於單方面自廢武功。AI治理從來就不是單純的技術問題,本質更是大國博弈的工具。在這種格局下,指望全球形成統一的AI減速共識,無異於天方夜譚。</p>
696
697<p><strong>世紀大和解?</strong><strong> </strong><strong>馬斯克奧特曼聯手踩剎車,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>取消上市:</strong><strong>AI </strong><strong>三巨頭在怕什麼?</strong></p>
698
699<p>當科技史上最水火不容的三位死對頭突然坐在同一張長椅上、以完全相同的口吻呼籲&ldquo;給 AI 踩剎車&rdquo;時,全人類應該感到欣慰,還是後背發涼? 2026 年 9 月 12 日至 16 日,全球人工智慧產業迎來了一場戲劇性拉滿的&ldquo;世紀大地震&rdquo;:Anthropic 首席執行官達里奧&middot;
699阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)發表了一篇長達 3,800 字的警世長文《我們必須為前沿技術設定節奏》(We Must Pace the Frontier),嚴厲警告遞歸式自我改進(Recursive Self-Improvement)正在讓人工智慧脫離人類掌控,可能在未來 6 到 12 個月內引發無法逆轉的生存危機。</p>
700
701<p>如果這只是一家自詡&ldquo;對齊原教旨主義&rdquo;實驗室的常規悲鳴,輿論或許早已習以為常。 但戲劇性的一幕緊隨其後:正在法庭上與 OpenAI 瘋狂撕扯的 xAI 掌門人埃隆&middot;馬斯克(Elon Musk)罕見公開轉發並力挺:&ldquo;達里奧是對的(Dario is right)&rdquo;; 緊接著,OpenAI 首席執行官山姆&middot;奧特曼(Sam Altman)不僅全盤背書限速倡議,更在受訪時拋出一記震動全球資本市場的超級重磅炸彈:<strong>因前沿安全與治理考量,</strong><strong>OpenAI </strong><strong>決定取消原定於</strong><strong> 2026 </strong><strong>年進行的首次公開募股(</strong><strong>IPO</strong><strong>)!</strong><strong> </strong>隨後,微軟納德拉與谷歌 DeepMind 哈薩比斯相繼發表聲援。</p>
702
703<p>一時間,全球科技股應聲巨震,納斯達克 AI 板塊估值虛火被當場扯下。 然而,就在主流媒體高呼&ldquo;矽谷巨頭終於良心發現拯救人類&rdquo;的同時,全球開源社區與反壟斷學者卻發出了尖銳的嘲弄:當燒了上千億美元的閉源巨頭發現算力撞牆、電網告急、千億估值無法兌現,且身後跟著步步緊逼的開源狼群時,&ldquo;以人類之名踩剎車&rdquo;,究竟是純粹的慈悲,還是一場教科書級別的合謀壟斷與監管俘獲?</p>
704
705<p><strong>黃仁勳駁斥</strong><strong>&ldquo;AI</strong><strong>末日論</strong><strong>&rdquo;</strong><strong>,特朗普電話助陣美國競速</strong></p>
706
707<p>2026年9月14日,洛杉磯All-In Summit現場。 輝達CEO黃仁勳正與Chamath、Jason、Sacks、Friedberg四位&ldquo;Besties&rdquo;深入對談,突然手機響起。 他接通並切到揚聲器,全場聽清了來電者的聲音&mdash;&mdash;美國總統特朗普。</p>
708
709<p>川普開場就調侃:&ldquo;你能設計世界上最複雜的晶片,卻搞不定免提。 &ldquo;隨即切入正題:&rdquo;機器人不會接管世界,AI也不會接管世界。 整件事都是騙局。 &ldquo;他強調數據中心&rdquo;太棒了,讓人和州都變富,是未來20-25年的石油&ldquo;,比互聯網更重要; 反對聲浪正中&ldquo;不想看到它發生的人&rdquo;下懷,可能是政客,也可能是中國。 &ldquo;我們不會讓那發生。&rdquo;</p>
710
711<p>黃仁勳回應:&ldquo;我們不會讓那發生,先生。 我們要確保美國AI競賽中人人都贏&mdash;&mdash;每個產業、每家公司、每個州、每一個人。 &ldquo;現場掌聲雷動。&nbsp;</p>
712
713<p>這通突如其來的電話,把近期愈演愈烈的&ldquo;AI末日論&rdquo;爭論推到了聚光燈下。</p>
714
715<p>末日敘事的源頭與黃仁勳的拆解</p>
716
717<p>兩週前,比爾&middot;蓋茲發布一篇長文,對AI時代的動盪和危機發出了嚴厲的警告。</p>
718
719<p>上週末,Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei發布長文《We Must Pace the Frontier》,呼籲前沿實驗室協調放緩能力提升的速度。 理由包括:AI開始幫助構建下一代AI(遞迴自我改進,RSI),以及OpenAI測試中的代理&ldquo;失控&rdquo;攻擊Hugging Face等事件。 他主張第三方評估者深度嵌入實驗室、行業標準和全球協調,部分得到Sam Altman、Elon Musk等人的呼應。 此前Anthropic研究員Jacob Coxon離職警告,另有聲音稱未來十年AI滅絕人類概率超10%。 市場隨之震盪,晶片股承壓,網路安全股卻大漲。</p>
720
721<p>黃仁勳的回應清晰而鋒利。 他首先肯定安全&ldquo;至關重要&rdquo;,吹哨者勇氣可嘉&mdash;&mdash;Coxon公開表達擔憂需要勇氣。 但他把兩件事嚴格分開:內部真實問題的舉報是正當的; 對未來做出&ldquo;科學預測&rdquo;卻不是。 &ldquo;那些預測雖然出自科學家之口,卻沒有建立在科學上...... 這個數字是編出ä¾
721†çš„。 這些人受過良好教育,被稱為研究人員,也在實驗室工作。 把這些詞放在一起,再拋出一個預測,聽起來就很驚人、很可怕,但不應該這樣做,這是不負責任的。 &rdquo;</p>
722
723<p>他逐一清算過去幾年被證偽的預言:有人說五年內放射科醫生將被AI完全取代,結果需求反而更高,AI只是輔助讀片; 有人預測6-12個月內90%代碼由AI生成、6-9個月內50%初級崗位消失、白領崗位明年減半、GPT-2和Llama 3太危險不能發布...... 這些統統落空。 &ldquo;必須有人對這些愚蠢的預測負責。&rdquo; 真正基於科學與證據的方向,恰恰與恐慌相反。</p>
724
725<p>對RSI,他去神祕化:它不過是上下文學習、技能、反思、強化學習、合成數據、LoRA微調等常規方法的集合。 公司內部可以持續做,但發布前必須評估、測試、檢查回退。 實驗室從研究轉向工程後,控制力會通過方法、工具和實踐增強。 &ldquo;當然不(會失控)。&rdquo;</p>
726
727<p><strong>超級智能已至,但在窄域</strong></p>
728
729<p>黃仁勳更進一步:&ldquo;我認為我們已經到了(AGI)。 &hellip;&hellip; 超級智能也是。 &ldquo;他給出具體定義:自動駕駛不需要給你煎蛋,只要事故率是人類的十分之一,那就是超級智能; 蛋白質合成與虛擬篩選領域,AI已超人類。 窄域超級智能不是科幻終點,而是正在發生的現實。</p>
730
731<p>這與他一貫的工程視角一致。 安全與領先不是二選一。 美國可以既快又安全地領導。 真正的問題集中在擁有最多算力的前沿實驗室&mdash;&mdash;危險先出現在那裡合理。 正確做法是根因分析、更好的沙箱、監控與第三方評估(類似金融審計),而不是用籠統末日敘事踩剎車。 如果某實驗室真失控,其他工程師可以進去幫忙; 但他懷疑這些頂尖團隊最終能自己解決。</p>
732
733<p><strong>今天的</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>,正處在經濟價值逐步兌現的早期階段。</strong></p>
734
735<p>IDC預測2026年全球企業AI支出將達到9400億美元,到2029年增長至2.1萬億美元。 這不是炒概念的估值,是實實在在的企業開支、產業投入。</p>
736
737<p>AI產業的基本盤,是嵌入到製造業、醫療、金融、能源、國防所有領域的生產力底座。 社會發展的內生需求,決定了AI只會越用越廣、越用越深,不可能因為頂層的安全爭議就整體停滯。</p>
738
739<p>很多人混淆了兩件事:前沿基礎模型的極限能力爬坡,和AI全產業的落地普及,是兩條完全不同的賽道。哪怕最頂尖的模型真的放緩了能力迭代,整個AI產業鏈的增長邏輯也不會受到根本影響。</p>
740
741<p>就像當年晶片製程衝到3nm、2nm遇到瓶頸,但全球數字經濟的增長並沒有因此停下,反而在應用層面開出了更多花。對追趕者來說更是如此。</p></div><div class="t1shufon"><div height="28" class="t1dfkvvk" style="--t1dfkvvk-0:28px"><a href="/tag/AI放緩論" title="AI放緩論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI放緩論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI末日論" title="AI末日論" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI末日論</span></a><a href="/tag/AI減速" title="AI減速" class="t1v4wtvw" style="--t1v4wtvw-0:1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5);--t1v4wtvw-1:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-2:15px;--t1v4wtvw-3:5px 10px;--t1v4wtvw-4:transparent;--t1v4wtvw-5:unset;--t1v4wtvw-6:#fff;--t1v4wtvw-7:transplant"><span>AI減速</span></a><a 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aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:110px;height:28px;border-radius:3px">‌</span><br/></span><!--/$--><!--/$--></div><div class="cxh832a"><ul class="u1b9z3yn"><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#e03f19;--ls6ua1w-1:500"><button>全部</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>台股</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>美股</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>國際政經</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>A股港股</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>外匯</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>期貨</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" style="--ls6ua1w-0:#848d97;--ls6ua1w-1:normal"><button>房產</button></li><li class="ls6ua1w" 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style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
741<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
741<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
741<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
741<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
741<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
741<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
741<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
741<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
741<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div><div class="p381mkm" style="--p381mkm-0:#fff;--p381mkm-1:none;--p381mkm-2:auto"><div class="t1vjqxs"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="t1e0zvxq"><div class="twgsutg"><div class="t8q1aeo"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:24px;height:24px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="h1fx0ipp" style="--h1fx0ipp-0:4px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div><div class="s14w88xd"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:50%;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="tdhxu1e"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:60px;height:28px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div><div class="c166zwi8"><div class="b1cdtmvy"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:78px;height:36px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:52px;height:19px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div><div class="cdvskaj" style="--cdvskaj-0:16px;--cdvskaj-1:0px"><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span>
741<h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="csbqhi5"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="c8xlkjx" style="--c8xlkjx-0:12px;--c8xlkjx-1:15px;--c8xlkjx-2:47px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:40px;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><h3 class="tgkyo5n"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:100%;height:17px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></h3></div></div><div class="l189vxqo" style="--l189vxqo-0:3px"></div></div></div><div><div class="t1bfkwjz" style="--t1bfkwjz-0:20px"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:26px;height:26px;border-radius:50%">‌</span><br/></span><div class="cwktnue"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:170px;height:29px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div><div class="t1dxcg3o"><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span><span aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true"><span class="react-loading-skeleton" style="width:44px;height:24px;border-radius:6px">‌</span><br/></span></div></div></div></div></div><!--/$--><!--/$--></section></div></div>
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741<script>self.__next_f.push([1,"\u003cp\u003e美國聯準會(Fed) 週三 (9/16)召開聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議,以 12 票對 0 票通過升息一碼決議,符合市場普遍預期。儘管官員會前釋出的政策訊息一度分歧,市場仍已反映超過 90% 的升息機率。會議將聯邦資金利率目標區間上調至 3.75% 至 4.00%。這是央行自 2023 å¹´ 7 月以來的首次升息紀錄,也是新任主席華許 (Kevin Warsh) 接掌 Fed 後的首度政策調升。最新利率點狀圖顯示,多數官員預估今年底利率將升至 4% 至 4.25%,意味年內仍可能再升息 1 碼。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFOMC 在會後聲明中表示:「通膨仍處於高檔。今天的政策行動將有助於通膨更及時回到委員會的 2% 目標。委員會將實現物價穩定。」\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e點狀圖暗示年內可能再升1碼\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed 同步公布的最新經濟預測顯示,18 名與會官員中,有 16 人預期今年至少還會升息 1 次,其中 4 人認為可能再升息 2 次;另有 2 人預期本次升息後便停止升息。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed 主席華許自上任後選擇不提交個人利率預測,因此未列入點狀圖。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e至於後續政策路徑,官員並未預估 2027 年之後繼續升息,而是預期 2028 年降息 1 次,2029 年至少再降息 1 次。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e不過,2027 年的政策展望仍存在明顯分歧。8 名官員預期當年還會升息,6 人認為利率將維持不變,另有 4 人預估降息。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e通膨預測上修 ä¼°2029年才回到目標\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed小幅上調今年通膨預測,預估整體個人消費支出 (PCE) 物價指數為 3.7%,剔除食品與能源的核心 PCE 為 3.4%,兩者均較 6 月預測提高 0.1 個百分點。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed預估,2027 年整體 PCE 通膨率將降至 2.3%,核心 PCE 則降至 2.5%,但通膨要到 2029 年才會回到 2% 目標。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這次升息的背景不同於典型緊縮循環。伊朗戰爭推升燃料價格,加上關稅影響持續發酵,這類供給面造成的通膨通常不會促使Fed立即採取行動。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e然而,官員擔心能源價格若長時間維持高檔,可能推升通膨預期,並逐步擴散至其他商品與服務。經濟學家也認為,人工智慧 (AI) 投資持續擴大,可能成為另一項通膨因素。Fed同時將失業率預測由 6 月估計的 4.3%下調至 4.1%,反映勞動市場趨於穩定,也提高決策官員採取升息行動的空間。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e官員亦記取新冠疫情後誤判通膨為「暫時性」的經驗。當時Fed預期供需失衡造成的物價壓力將自行消退,實際上通膨其後升至 40 年高點,Fed才開始收緊政策。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFed 9月聲明全文+最新經濟預測\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed表示,美國經濟活動持續以穩健步調擴張。儘管地緣政治情勢等因素使經濟前景仍籠罩高度不確定性,但國內支出保持韌性,生產力成長強勁,企業資本投資也相當熱絡。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e勞動市場方面,Fed指出,新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率則變化不大,顯示就業市場目前仍大致維持穩定。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed坦言,通膨依然偏高,這次升息將有助於使通膨更快回到2%目標,並以「委員會將實現物價穩定」的強硬措辭,展現持續對抗通膨的決心。此外,Fed將繼續維持銀行體系準備金充裕的政策。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFed 9月、7月聲明比一比:從按兵不動轉向升息\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed前次會議決定維持利率不變,本次則改為升息1碼,並新增\u003cem\u003e「今日的政策行動將有助於讓通膨更及時地回到2%目標」\u003c/em\u003e的說法,顯示官員認為有必要透過進一步緊縮政策,加快壓低通膨的速度。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e聲明最後更直接表示,「委員會將實現物價穩定」,語氣明顯強於過去常見的「致力讓通膨回到2%目標」。\u003cem\u003e這項修改凸顯Fed希望向市場傳達明確訊息,即使部分物價壓力源自政策難以左右的外部因素,央行仍將採取行動控制通膨。\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e刪除中東衝突與供給衝擊說法\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e在經濟評估方面,Fed仍認為經濟活動正以穩健步調擴張,但不再直接將高度不確定性歸因於「中東衝突」,而是改以範圍更廣的「地緣政治發展」描述,同時新增美國國內支出保持韌性的說法。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed也維持生產力成長強勁的評估,並將資本投資由「強勁」改稱「穩健」。至於\u003cem\u003e勞動市場,聲明並未出現明顯變化\u003c/em\u003e,仍稱新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率也變化不大。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e通膨段落的變化更加值得注意。前次聲明指出,通膨偏高部分反映供給衝擊推升能源等特定領域的價格;本次則完全刪除這項解釋,僅保留「通膨仍處高檔」,隨即強調升息有助於使通膨更快回到2%。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這項調整顯示,\u003cem\u003eFed不再著重說明通膨是由能源與供應面衝擊造成,而是將論述重心轉向央行必須採取的政策行動,淡化外部因素可能只是暫時推高物價的意味。\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e三張反對票æ
741¶ˆå¤± Fed恢復全票共識\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e表決結果也反映Fed內部立場出現整合。前次會議以9票贊成、3票反對通過按兵不動的決策,反對者哈瑪克(Beth Hammack)、卡什卡里(Neel Kashkari)與蘿根(Lorie Logan)當時均主張升息1碼。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e隨著Fed本次採取3人先前主張的升息行動,決策獲得12票一致支持,反對票全部消失。這顯示在經濟保持韌性、通膨仍然偏高的背景下,Fed官員已對進一步收緊貨幣政策形成高度共識。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFed升息1碼惹怒川普 喊話利率應降至1%以下\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e聯準會 (Fed) 週三 (16 日) 宣布2023年以來首次升息後,美國總統川普隨即要求央行迅速將利率降至1%或更低。白宮亦批評這項決定「相當令人遺憾」,認為升息缺乏充分的經濟依據,但未直接批評Fed主席華許。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e川普會後在Truth Social發文表示,美國利率「應該降至1%或更低」,理由是美國擁有全球最佳信用。他並以全大寫文字要求:「為美國降低利率,而且要快!」\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e川普聲稱,美國正在支撐全球多數國家,這種情況不能繼續下去。他並以美國吸引大量新增投資,以及對許多國家存在貿易逆差為由,主張美國應適用更低利率。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e白宮發言人德賽 (Kush Desai) 接受福斯新聞訪問時表示,川普已清楚說明希望利率朝哪個方向移動,而Fed當天決定升息,從政府立場來看「相當令人遺憾」,也缺乏特別有力的經濟依據。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e德賽指出,目前並非拜登政府時期,川普與共和黨沒有投入數兆美元的新冠疫情刺激支出,因此不存在需要透過提高利率加以抑制的失控總需求。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e儘管白宮反對這次升息,德賽仍表示,川普相信Fed應保持獨立,但這不影響總統在認為政策出現問題時公開表達意見的權利。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e川普近期已重新加大對Fed的施壓力道。不到兩週前,他曾警告,如果Fed不降息,可能停止與對美國享有貿易順差的國家進行貿易,涉及美國多數主要貿易夥伴及其他數十個國家。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e不過,川普與白宮官員目前仍未直接抨擊由川普任命的華許。華許接替鮑爾出任Fed主席後,川普對央行的公開施壓一度減弱,如今情況可能隨著Fed轉向升息而改變,華許也將面臨更大的白宮政治壓力。\u003c/p\u003e"])</script>
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741<script>self.__next_f.push([1,"\u003cp\u003e9月14日,軟銀集團收盤大跌11%,費城半導體指數下跌近6%,SK海力士跌7.6%,阿斯麥跌7.25%,輝達跌3.4%、英特爾、美光跌超5%,康寧暴跌13.74%,Coherent跌超12%。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e初步統計顯示,全球半導體和AI算力硬體產業鏈總市值一夜之間蒸發超5000億美元。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e引發這場拋售的,是三個人在週末說了幾句話。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026ldquo;AI\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e放緩論\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026rdquo;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eAnthropic CEO阿莫代伊發布長文《我們必須為前沿定速》,主張以第三方\u0026ldquo;員工級\u0026rdquo;系統訪問等手段放緩最強模型迭代; OpenAI CEO奧爾特曼公開呼應\u0026ldquo;同意定速前沿\u0026rdquo;,並明確2026年不推進IPO; 馬斯克轉評\u0026ldquo;達里奧說得對\u0026rdquo;。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e三個人,幾句話,5000億美元一夜蒸發。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e首先要釐清一個最基本的事實:阿莫代伊等人擔憂的AI風險,和當下絕大多數AI產業、絕大多數國家的AI發展,根本不在同一個維度上。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e他們談論的風險,是最前沿極限模型的湧現性風險\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;是AI智能體自主突破沙盒、主動發起網路攻擊、遞迴自我改進帶來的失控可能。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這種風險只存在於OpenAI、Anthropic少數幾家實驗室的最頂尖測試環境中,是人類摸到智能邊界時的前沿焦慮,屬於超遠期的尾部風險。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e如果只把這場爭論當成技術安全問題,那就看得太淺了。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這套邏輯的底層,其實和當年核不擴散體系的誕生幾乎沒什麼區別:領跑者先掌握了顛覆性技術,一邊擔憂技術反噬自身,一邊又怕對手追平力量格局,於是就用\u0026ldquo;全球公共安全\u0026rdquo;的名義,建立一套固化自身優勢的管控規則。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e今天的AI放緩論,美國頭部實驗室率先摸到了前沿AI的能力邊界,現在提出要建立\u0026ldquo;高危閾值標準\u0026rdquo;\u0026ldquo;第三方獨立審計\u0026rdquo;\u0026ldquo;全球協同限速\u0026rdquo;,名義是防範AI失控災難,實際效果必然是\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;由美國定義什麼是\u0026ldquo;高危\u0026rdquo;,由美國主導審核權,誰摸到了這條線,誰就要接受限制、放慢腳步。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這也是為什麼追趕者天然對這套敘事保持警惕的原因。當你的模型能力距離高危閾值還有很遠的時候,接受這套規則等於單方面自廢武功。AI治理從來就不是單純的技術問題,本質更是大國博弈的工具。在這種格局下,指望全球形成統一的AI減速共識,無異於天方夜譚。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e世紀大和解?\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e馬斯克奧特曼聯手踩剎車,\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOpenAI \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e取消上市:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAI \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e三巨頭在怕什麼?\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e當科技史上最水火不容的三位死對頭突然坐在同一張長椅上、以完全相同的口吻呼籲\u0026ldquo;給 AI 踩剎車\u0026rdquo;時,全人類應該感到欣慰,還是後背發涼? 2026 年 9 月 12 日至 16 日,全球人工智慧產業迎來了一場戲劇性拉滿的\u0026ldquo;世紀大地震\u0026rdquo;:Anthropic 首席執行官達里奧\u0026middot;
741阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)發表了一篇長達 3,800 字的警世長文《我們必須為前沿技術設定節奏》(We Must Pace the Frontier),嚴厲警告遞歸式自我改進(Recursive Self-Improvement)正在讓人工智慧脫離人類掌控,可能在未來 6 到 12 個月內引發無法逆轉的生存危機。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e如果這只是一家自詡\u0026ldquo;對齊原教旨主義\u0026rdquo;實驗室的常規悲鳴,輿論或許早已習以為常。 但戲劇性的一幕緊隨其後:正在法庭上與 OpenAI 瘋狂撕扯的 xAI 掌門人埃隆\u0026middot;馬斯克(Elon Musk)罕見公開轉發並力挺:\u0026ldquo;達里奧是對的(Dario is right)\u0026rdquo;; 緊接著,OpenAI 首席執行官山姆\u0026middot;奧特曼(Sam Altman)不僅全盤背書限速倡議,更在受訪時拋出一記震動全球資本市場的超級重磅炸彈:\u003cstrong\u003e因前沿安全與治理考量,\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOpenAI \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e決定取消原定於\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e 2026 \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e年進行的首次公開募股(\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIPO\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e)!\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003e隨後,微軟納德拉與谷歌 DeepMind 哈薩比斯相繼發表聲援。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e一時間,全球科技股應聲巨震,納斯達克 AI 板塊估值虛火被當場扯下。 然而,就在主流媒體高呼\u0026ldquo;矽谷巨頭終於良心發現拯救人類\u0026rdquo;的同時,全球開源社區與反壟斷學者卻發出了尖銳的嘲弄:當燒了上千億美元的閉源巨頭發現算力撞牆、電網告急、千億估值無法兌現,且身後跟著步步緊逼的開源狼群時,\u0026ldquo;以人類之名踩剎車\u0026rdquo;,究竟是純粹的慈悲,還是一場教科書級別的合謀壟斷與監管俘獲?\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e黃仁勳駁斥\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026ldquo;AI\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e末日論\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026rdquo;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e,特朗普電話助陣美國競速\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e2026å¹´9月14日,洛杉磯All-In Summit現場。 輝達CEO黃仁勳正與Chamath、Jason、Sacks、Friedberg四位\u0026ldquo;Besties\u0026rdquo;深入對談,突然手機響起。 他接通並切到揚聲器,全場聽清了來電者的聲音\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;美國總統特朗普。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e川普開場就調侃:\u0026ldquo;你能設計世界上最複雜的晶片,卻搞不定免提。 \u0026ldquo;隨即切入正題:\u0026rdquo;機器人不會接管世界,AI也不會接管世界。 整件事都是騙局。 \u0026ldquo;他強調數據中心\u0026rdquo;太棒了,讓人和州都變富,是未來20-25年的石油\u0026ldquo;,比互聯網更重要; 反對聲浪正中\u0026ldquo;不想看到它發生的人\u0026rdquo;下懷,可能是政客,也可能是中國。 \u0026ldquo;我們不會讓那發生。\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e黃仁勳回應:\u0026ldquo;我們不會讓那發生,先生。 我們要確保美國AI競賽中人人都贏\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;每個產業、每家公司、每個州、每一個人。 \u0026ldquo;現場掌聲雷動。\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這通突如其來的電話,把近期愈演愈烈的\u0026ldquo;AI末日論\u0026rdquo;爭論推到了聚光燈下。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e末日敘事的源頭與黃仁勳的拆解\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e兩週前,比爾\u0026middot;蓋茲發布一篇長文,對AI時代的動盪和危機發出了嚴厲的警告。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e上週末,Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei發布長文《We Must Pace the Frontier》,呼籲前沿實驗室協調放緩能力提升的速度。 理由包括:AI開始幫助構建下一代AI(遞迴自我改進,RSI),以及OpenAI測試中的代理\u0026ldquo;失控\u0026rdquo;攻擊Hugging Face等事件。 他主張第三方評估者深度嵌入實驗室、行業標準和全球協調,部分得到Sam Altman、Elon Musk等人的呼應。 此前Anthropic研究員Jacob Coxon離職警告,另有聲音稱未來十年AI滅絕人類概率超10%。 市場隨之震盪,晶片股承壓,網路安全股卻大漲。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e黃仁勳的回應清晰而鋒利。 他首先肯定安全\u0026ldquo;至關重要\u0026rdquo;,吹哨者勇氣可嘉\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;Coxon公開表達擔憂需要勇氣。 但他把兩件事嚴格分開:內部真實問題的舉報是正當的; 對未來做出\u0026ldquo;科學預測\u0026rdquo;卻不是。 \u0026ldquo;那些預測雖然出自科學家之口,卻沒有建立在科學上...... 這個數字是編出ä¾
741†çš„。 這些人受過良好教育,被稱為研究人員,也在實驗室工作。 把這些詞放在一起,再拋出一個預測,聽起來就很驚人、很可怕,但不應該這樣做,這是不負責任的。 \u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e他逐一清算過去幾年被證偽的預言:有人說五年內放射科醫生將被AI完全取代,結果需求反而更高,AI只是輔助讀片; 有人預測6-12個月內90%代碼由AI生成、6-9個月內50%初級崗位消失、白領崗位明年減半、GPT-2和Llama 3太危險不能發布...... 這些統統落空。 \u0026ldquo;必須有人對這些愚蠢的預測負責。\u0026rdquo; 真正基於科學與證據的方向,恰恰與恐慌相反。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e對RSI,他去神祕化:它不過是上下文學習、技能、反思、強化學習、合成數據、LoRA微調等常規方法的集合。 公司內部可以持續做,但發布前必須評估、測試、檢查回退。 實驗室從研究轉向工程後,控制力會通過方法、工具和實踐增強。 \u0026ldquo;當然不(會失控)。\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e超級智能已至,但在窄域\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e黃仁勳更進一步:\u0026ldquo;我認為我們已經到了(AGI)。 \u0026hellip;\u0026hellip; 超級智能也是。 \u0026ldquo;他給出具體定義:自動駕駛不需要給你煎蛋,只要事故率是人類的十分之一,那就是超級智能; 蛋白質合成與虛擬篩選領域,AI已超人類。 窄域超級智能不是科幻終點,而是正在發生的現實。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這與他一貫的工程視角一致。 安全與領先不是二選一。 美國可以既快又安全地領導。 真正的問題集中在擁有最多算力的前沿實驗室\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;危險先出現在那裡合理。 正確做法是根因分析、更好的沙箱、監控與第三方評估(類似金融審計),而不是用籠統末日敘事踩剎車。 如果某實驗室真失控,其他工程師可以進去幫忙; 但他懷疑這些頂尖團隊最終能自己解決。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e今天的\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAI\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e,正處在經濟價值逐步兌現的早期階段。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIDC預測2026年全球企業AI支出將達到9400億美元,到2029年增長至2.1萬億美元。 這不是炒概念的估值,是實實在在的企業開支、產業投入。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eAI產業的基本盤,是嵌入到製造業、醫療、金融、能源、國防所有領域的生產力底座。 社會發展的內生需求,決定了AI只會越用越廣、越用越深,不可能因為頂層的安全爭議就整體停滯。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e很多人混淆了兩件事:前沿基礎模型的極限能力爬坡,和AI全產業的落地普及,是兩條完全不同的賽道。哪怕最頂尖的模型真的放緩了能力迭代,整個AI產業鏈的增長邏輯也不會受到根本影響。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e就像當年晶片製程衝到3nm、2nm遇到瓶頸,但全球數字經濟的增長並沒有因此停下,反而在應用層面開出了更多花。對追趕者來說更是如此。\u003c/p\u003e"])</script>
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741<script>self.__next_f.push([1,"\u003cp\u003e美國聯準會(Fed) 週三 (9/16)召開聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議,以 12 票對 0 票通過升息一碼決議,符合市場普遍預期。儘管官員會前釋出的政策訊息一度分歧,市場仍已反映超過 90% 的升息機率。會議將聯邦資金利率目標區間上調至 3.75% 至 4.00%。這是央行自 2023 å¹´ 7 月以來的首次升息紀錄,也是新任主席華許 (Kevin Warsh) 接掌 Fed 後的首度政策調升。最新利率點狀圖顯示,多數官員預估今年底利率將升至 4% 至 4.25%,意味年內仍可能再升息 1 碼。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFOMC 在會後聲明中表示:「通膨仍處於高檔。今天的政策行動將有助於通膨更及時回到委員會的 2% 目標。委員會將實現物價穩定。」\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e點狀圖暗示年內可能再升1碼\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed 同步公布的最新經濟預測顯示,18 名與會官員中,有 16 人預期今年至少還會升息 1 次,其中 4 人認為可能再升息 2 次;另有 2 人預期本次升息後便停止升息。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed 主席華許自上任後選擇不提交個人利率預測,因此未列入點狀圖。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e至於後續政策路徑,官員並未預估 2027 年之後繼續升息,而是預期 2028 年降息 1 次,2029 年至少再降息 1 次。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e不過,2027 年的政策展望仍存在明顯分歧。8 名官員預期當年還會升息,6 人認為利率將維持不變,另有 4 人預估降息。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e通膨預測上修 ä¼°2029年才回到目標\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed小幅上調今年通膨預測,預估整體個人消費支出 (PCE) 物價指數為 3.7%,剔除食品與能源的核心 PCE 為 3.4%,兩者均較 6 月預測提高 0.1 個百分點。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed預估,2027 年整體 PCE 通膨率將降至 2.3%,核心 PCE 則降至 2.5%,但通膨要到 2029 年才會回到 2% 目標。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這次升息的背景不同於典型緊縮循環。伊朗戰爭推升燃料價格,加上關稅影響持續發酵,這類供給面造成的通膨通常不會促使Fed立即採取行動。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e然而,官員擔心能源價格若長時間維持高檔,可能推升通膨預期,並逐步擴散至其他商品與服務。經濟學家也認為,人工智慧 (AI) 投資持續擴大,可能成為另一項通膨因素。Fed同時將失業率預測由 6 月估計的 4.3%下調至 4.1%,反映勞動市場趨於穩定,也提高決策官員採取升息行動的空間。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e官員亦記取新冠疫情後誤判通膨為「暫時性」的經驗。當時Fed預期供需失衡造成的物價壓力將自行消退,實際上通膨其後升至 40 年高點,Fed才開始收緊政策。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFed 9月聲明全文+最新經濟預測\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed表示,美國經濟活動持續以穩健步調擴張。儘管地緣政治情勢等因素使經濟前景仍籠罩高度不確定性,但國內支出保持韌性,生產力成長強勁,企業資本投資也相當熱絡。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e勞動市場方面,Fed指出,新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率則變化不大,顯示就業市場目前仍大致維持穩定。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed坦言,通膨依然偏高,這次升息將有助於使通膨更快回到2%目標,並以「委員會將實現物價穩定」的強硬措辭,展現持續對抗通膨的決心。此外,Fed將繼續維持銀行體系準備金充裕的政策。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFed 9月、7月聲明比一比:從按兵不動轉向升息\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed前次會議決定維持利率不變,本次則改為升息1碼,並新增\u003cem\u003e「今日的政策行動將有助於讓通膨更及時地回到2%目標」\u003c/em\u003e的說法,顯示官員認為有必要透過進一步緊縮政策,加快壓低通膨的速度。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e聲明最後更直接表示,「委員會將實現物價穩定」,語氣明顯強於過去常見的「致力讓通膨回到2%目標」。\u003cem\u003e這項修改凸顯Fed希望向市場傳達明確訊息,即使部分物價壓力源自政策難以左右的外部因素,央行仍將採取行動控制通膨。\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e刪除中東衝突與供給衝擊說法\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e在經濟評估方面,Fed仍認為經濟活動正以穩健步調擴張,但不再直接將高度不確定性歸因於「中東衝突」,而是改以範圍更廣的「地緣政治發展」描述,同時新增美國國內支出保持韌性的說法。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFed也維持生產力成長強勁的評估,並將資本投資由「強勁」改稱「穩健」。至於\u003cem\u003e勞動市場,聲明並未出現明顯變化\u003c/em\u003e,仍稱新增就業人數大致跟上勞動力成長速度,失業率也變化不大。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e通膨段落的變化更加值得注意。前次聲明指出,通膨偏高部分反映供給衝擊推升能源等特定領域的價格;本次則完全刪除這項解釋,僅保留「通膨仍處高檔」,隨即強調升息有助於使通膨更快回到2%。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這項調整顯示,\u003cem\u003eFed不再著重說明通膨是由能源與供應面衝擊造成,而是將論述重心轉向央行必須採取的政策行動,淡化外部因素可能只是暫時推高物價的意味。\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e三張反對票æ
741¶ˆå¤± Fed恢復全票共識\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e表決結果也反映Fed內部立場出現整合。前次會議以9票贊成、3票反對通過按兵不動的決策,反對者哈瑪克(Beth Hammack)、卡什卡里(Neel Kashkari)與蘿根(Lorie Logan)當時均主張升息1碼。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e隨著Fed本次採取3人先前主張的升息行動,決策獲得12票一致支持,反對票全部消失。這顯示在經濟保持韌性、通膨仍然偏高的背景下,Fed官員已對進一步收緊貨幣政策形成高度共識。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFed升息1碼惹怒川普 喊話利率應降至1%以下\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e聯準會 (Fed) 週三 (16 日) 宣布2023年以來首次升息後,美國總統川普隨即要求央行迅速將利率降至1%或更低。白宮亦批評這項決定「相當令人遺憾」,認為升息缺乏充分的經濟依據,但未直接批評Fed主席華許。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e川普會後在Truth Social發文表示,美國利率「應該降至1%或更低」,理由是美國擁有全球最佳信用。他並以全大寫文字要求:「為美國降低利率,而且要快!」\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e川普聲稱,美國正在支撐全球多數國家,這種情況不能繼續下去。他並以美國吸引大量新增投資,以及對許多國家存在貿易逆差為由,主張美國應適用更低利率。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e白宮發言人德賽 (Kush Desai) 接受福斯新聞訪問時表示,川普已清楚說明希望利率朝哪個方向移動,而Fed當天決定升息,從政府立場來看「相當令人遺憾」,也缺乏特別有力的經濟依據。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e德賽指出,目前並非拜登政府時期,川普與共和黨沒有投入數兆美元的新冠疫情刺激支出,因此不存在需要透過提高利率加以抑制的失控總需求。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e儘管白宮反對這次升息,德賽仍表示,川普相信Fed應保持獨立,但這不影響總統在認為政策出現問題時公開表達意見的權利。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e川普近期已重新加大對Fed的施壓力道。不到兩週前,他曾警告,如果Fed不降息,可能停止與對美國享有貿易順差的國家進行貿易,涉及美國多數主要貿易夥伴及其他數十個國家。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e不過,川普與白宮官員目前仍未直接抨擊由川普任命的華許。華許接替鮑爾出任Fed主席後,川普對央行的公開施壓一度減弱,如今情況可能隨著Fed轉向升息而改變,華許也將面臨更大的白宮政治壓力。\u003c/p\u003e"])</script>
741<script>self.__next_f.push([1,"58:T28ba,"])</script>
741<script>self.__next_f.push([1,"\u003cp\u003e9月14日,軟銀集團收盤大跌11%,費城半導體指數下跌近6%,SK海力士跌7.6%,阿斯麥跌7.25%,輝達跌3.4%、英特爾、美光跌超5%,康寧暴跌13.74%,Coherent跌超12%。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e初步統計顯示,全球半導體和AI算力硬體產業鏈總市值一夜之間蒸發超5000億美元。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e引發這場拋售的,是三個人在週末說了幾句話。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026ldquo;AI\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e放緩論\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026rdquo;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eAnthropic CEO阿莫代伊發布長文《我們必須為前沿定速》,主張以第三方\u0026ldquo;員工級\u0026rdquo;系統訪問等手段放緩最強模型迭代; OpenAI CEO奧爾特曼公開呼應\u0026ldquo;同意定速前沿\u0026rdquo;,並明確2026年不推進IPO; 馬斯克轉評\u0026ldquo;達里奧說得對\u0026rdquo;。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e三個人,幾句話,5000億美元一夜蒸發。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e首先要釐清一個最基本的事實:阿莫代伊等人擔憂的AI風險,和當下絕大多數AI產業、絕大多數國家的AI發展,根本不在同一個維度上。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e他們談論的風險,是最前沿極限模型的湧現性風險\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;是AI智能體自主突破沙盒、主動發起網路攻擊、遞迴自我改進帶來的失控可能。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這種風險只存在於OpenAI、Anthropic少數幾家實驗室的最頂尖測試環境中,是人類摸到智能邊界時的前沿焦慮,屬於超遠期的尾部風險。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e如果只把這場爭論當成技術安全問題,那就看得太淺了。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這套邏輯的底層,其實和當年核不擴散體系的誕生幾乎沒什麼區別:領跑者先掌握了顛覆性技術,一邊擔憂技術反噬自身,一邊又怕對手追平力量格局,於是就用\u0026ldquo;全球公共安全\u0026rdquo;的名義,建立一套固化自身優勢的管控規則。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e今天的AI放緩論,美國頭部實驗室率先摸到了前沿AI的能力邊界,現在提出要建立\u0026ldquo;高危閾值標準\u0026rdquo;\u0026ldquo;第三方獨立審計\u0026rdquo;\u0026ldquo;全球協同限速\u0026rdquo;,名義是防範AI失控災難,實際效果必然是\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;由美國定義什麼是\u0026ldquo;高危\u0026rdquo;,由美國主導審核權,誰摸到了這條線,誰就要接受限制、放慢腳步。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這也是為什麼追趕者天然對這套敘事保持警惕的原因。當你的模型能力距離高危閾值還有很遠的時候,接受這套規則等於單方面自廢武功。AI治理從來就不是單純的技術問題,本質更是大國博弈的工具。在這種格局下,指望全球形成統一的AI減速共識,無異於天方夜譚。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e世紀大和解?\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e馬斯克奧特曼聯手踩剎車,\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOpenAI \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e取消上市:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAI \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e三巨頭在怕什麼?\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e當科技史上最水火不容的三位死對頭突然坐在同一張長椅上、以完全相同的口吻呼籲\u0026ldquo;給 AI 踩剎車\u0026rdquo;時,全人類應該感到欣慰,還是後背發涼? 2026 年 9 月 12 日至 16 日,全球人工智慧產業迎來了一場戲劇性拉滿的\u0026ldquo;世紀大地震\u0026rdquo;:Anthropic 首席執行官達里奧\u0026middot;
741阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)發表了一篇長達 3,800 字的警世長文《我們必須為前沿技術設定節奏》(We Must Pace the Frontier),嚴厲警告遞歸式自我改進(Recursive Self-Improvement)正在讓人工智慧脫離人類掌控,可能在未來 6 到 12 個月內引發無法逆轉的生存危機。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e如果這只是一家自詡\u0026ldquo;對齊原教旨主義\u0026rdquo;實驗室的常規悲鳴,輿論或許早已習以為常。 但戲劇性的一幕緊隨其後:正在法庭上與 OpenAI 瘋狂撕扯的 xAI 掌門人埃隆\u0026middot;馬斯克(Elon Musk)罕見公開轉發並力挺:\u0026ldquo;達里奧是對的(Dario is right)\u0026rdquo;; 緊接著,OpenAI 首席執行官山姆\u0026middot;奧特曼(Sam Altman)不僅全盤背書限速倡議,更在受訪時拋出一記震動全球資本市場的超級重磅炸彈:\u003cstrong\u003e因前沿安全與治理考量,\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOpenAI \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e決定取消原定於\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e 2026 \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e年進行的首次公開募股(\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIPO\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e)!\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003e隨後,微軟納德拉與谷歌 DeepMind 哈薩比斯相繼發表聲援。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e一時間,全球科技股應聲巨震,納斯達克 AI 板塊估值虛火被當場扯下。 然而,就在主流媒體高呼\u0026ldquo;矽谷巨頭終於良心發現拯救人類\u0026rdquo;的同時,全球開源社區與反壟斷學者卻發出了尖銳的嘲弄:當燒了上千億美元的閉源巨頭發現算力撞牆、電網告急、千億估值無法兌現,且身後跟著步步緊逼的開源狼群時,\u0026ldquo;以人類之名踩剎車\u0026rdquo;,究竟是純粹的慈悲,還是一場教科書級別的合謀壟斷與監管俘獲?\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e黃仁勳駁斥\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026ldquo;AI\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e末日論\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026rdquo;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e,特朗普電話助陣美國競速\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e2026å¹´9月14日,洛杉磯All-In Summit現場。 輝達CEO黃仁勳正與Chamath、Jason、Sacks、Friedberg四位\u0026ldquo;Besties\u0026rdquo;深入對談,突然手機響起。 他接通並切到揚聲器,全場聽清了來電者的聲音\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;美國總統特朗普。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e川普開場就調侃:\u0026ldquo;你能設計世界上最複雜的晶片,卻搞不定免提。 \u0026ldquo;隨即切入正題:\u0026rdquo;機器人不會接管世界,AI也不會接管世界。 整件事都是騙局。 \u0026ldquo;他強調數據中心\u0026rdquo;太棒了,讓人和州都變富,是未來20-25年的石油\u0026ldquo;,比互聯網更重要; 反對聲浪正中\u0026ldquo;不想看到它發生的人\u0026rdquo;下懷,可能是政客,也可能是中國。 \u0026ldquo;我們不會讓那發生。\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e黃仁勳回應:\u0026ldquo;我們不會讓那發生,先生。 我們要確保美國AI競賽中人人都贏\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;每個產業、每家公司、每個州、每一個人。 \u0026ldquo;現場掌聲雷動。\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這通突如其來的電話,把近期愈演愈烈的\u0026ldquo;AI末日論\u0026rdquo;爭論推到了聚光燈下。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e末日敘事的源頭與黃仁勳的拆解\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e兩週前,比爾\u0026middot;蓋茲發布一篇長文,對AI時代的動盪和危機發出了嚴厲的警告。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e上週末,Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei發布長文《We Must Pace the Frontier》,呼籲前沿實驗室協調放緩能力提升的速度。 理由包括:AI開始幫助構建下一代AI(遞迴自我改進,RSI),以及OpenAI測試中的代理\u0026ldquo;失控\u0026rdquo;攻擊Hugging Face等事件。 他主張第三方評估者深度嵌入實驗室、行業標準和全球協調,部分得到Sam Altman、Elon Musk等人的呼應。 此前Anthropic研究員Jacob Coxon離職警告,另有聲音稱未來十年AI滅絕人類概率超10%。 市場隨之震盪,晶片股承壓,網路安全股卻大漲。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e黃仁勳的回應清晰而鋒利。 他首先肯定安全\u0026ldquo;至關重要\u0026rdquo;,吹哨者勇氣可嘉\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;Coxon公開表達擔憂需要勇氣。 但他把兩件事嚴格分開:內部真實問題的舉報是正當的; 對未來做出\u0026ldquo;科學預測\u0026rdquo;卻不是。 \u0026ldquo;那些預測雖然出自科學家之口,卻沒有建立在科學上...... 這個數字是編出ä¾
741†çš„。 這些人受過良好教育,被稱為研究人員,也在實驗室工作。 把這些詞放在一起,再拋出一個預測,聽起來就很驚人、很可怕,但不應該這樣做,這是不負責任的。 \u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e他逐一清算過去幾年被證偽的預言:有人說五年內放射科醫生將被AI完全取代,結果需求反而更高,AI只是輔助讀片; 有人預測6-12個月內90%代碼由AI生成、6-9個月內50%初級崗位消失、白領崗位明年減半、GPT-2和Llama 3太危險不能發布...... 這些統統落空。 \u0026ldquo;必須有人對這些愚蠢的預測負責。\u0026rdquo; 真正基於科學與證據的方向,恰恰與恐慌相反。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e對RSI,他去神祕化:它不過是上下文學習、技能、反思、強化學習、合成數據、LoRA微調等常規方法的集合。 公司內部可以持續做,但發布前必須評估、測試、檢查回退。 實驗室從研究轉向工程後,控制力會通過方法、工具和實踐增強。 \u0026ldquo;當然不(會失控)。\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e超級智能已至,但在窄域\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e黃仁勳更進一步:\u0026ldquo;我認為我們已經到了(AGI)。 \u0026hellip;\u0026hellip; 超級智能也是。 \u0026ldquo;他給出具體定義:自動駕駛不需要給你煎蛋,只要事故率是人類的十分之一,那就是超級智能; 蛋白質合成與虛擬篩選領域,AI已超人類。 窄域超級智能不是科幻終點,而是正在發生的現實。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e這與他一貫的工程視角一致。 安全與領先不是二選一。 美國可以既快又安全地領導。 真正的問題集中在擁有最多算力的前沿實驗室\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;危險先出現在那裡合理。 正確做法是根因分析、更好的沙箱、監控與第三方評估(類似金融審計),而不是用籠統末日敘事踩剎車。 如果某實驗室真失控,其他工程師可以進去幫忙; 但他懷疑這些頂尖團隊最終能自己解決。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e今天的\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAI\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e,正處在經濟價值逐步兌現的早期階段。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIDC預測2026年全球企業AI支出將達到9400億美元,到2029年增長至2.1萬億美元。 這不是炒概念的估值,是實實在在的企業開支、產業投入。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eAI產業的基本盤,是嵌入到製造業、醫療、金融、能源、國防所有領域的生產力底座。 社會發展的內生需求,決定了AI只會越用越廣、越用越深,不可能因為頂層的安全爭議就整體停滯。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e很多人混淆了兩件事:前沿基礎模型的極限能力爬坡,和AI全產業的落地普及,是兩條完全不同的賽道。哪怕最頂尖的模型真的放緩了能力迭代,整個AI產業鏈的增長邏輯也不會受到根本影響。\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e就像當年晶片製程衝到3nm、2nm遇到瓶頸,但全球數字經濟的增長並沒有因此停下,反而在應用層面開出了更多花。對追趕者來說更是如此。\u003c/p\u003e"])</script>
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