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1(globalThis.TURBOPACK||(globalThis.TURBOPACK=[])).push(["object"==typeof document?document.currentScript:void 0,273317,e=>{e.v(JSON.parse('{"home":{"hero":{"badge1":"Polymarket-native","badge2":"Research layer","cta1":"Start trading news","cta2":"Get signals on Telegram","title_pre":"News Intelligence for ","title_hl":"Polymarket Traders","title_suf":".","sub_text":"PREDX turns the news, prices and resolution risk moving Polymarket into structured signals — ","sub_bold":"what moved, why, and what to watch next."},"loop":{"eyebrow":"Step 01 — The core loop","title":"News finds it. Events organize it. Markets price it. Signals explain it.","caption":"Every signal walks you from “what happened” to “how Polymarket is pricing it.”"},"mapping":{"eyebrow":"Step 02 — The mapping moat","title":"Any AI can summarize news. The hard part is knowing which markets it moves.","li1b":"Entity recognition","li1d":"people, countries, institutions, teams, policies, tickers.","li2b":"Event clustering","li2d":"many headlines, one storyline, one Event object.","li3b":"Market matching","li3d":"find the most relevant live contract on Polymarket.","li4b":"Related-market expansion","li4d":"surface the other markets the same event touches.","caption":"One event, many Polymarket reactions — PREDX prices the whole storyline, not a single contract."},"trust":{"eyebrow":"Step 03 — The trust layer · PREDX\'s core moat","soon":"Coming soon","title":"Why you can believe a signal — not just see it","title2":"Four-layer verification stands between a headline and a signal you trust","li1b":"Resolution Verdict","li1d1":"does the news actually satisfy how the market ","li1em":"settles","li1d2":"? Five independent dimensions: subject, action, qualifier, deadline, source.","li2b":"Multi-dimensional Confidence","li2d":"not a black-box “82%.” Source reliability, resolution match, market reaction, alpha remaining and multi-source — each shown and weighted.","li3b":"Multi-source verification","li3d":"single-source rumors are flagged and down-weighted; four independent outlets raise confidence.","li4b":"Public track record","li4d":"every signal\'s 1h / 6h / 24h outcome is logged. We publish the misses too."},"workflow":{"eyebrow":"One connected research workflow","title_pre":"From scattered searches to ","title_em":"one event view.","desc":"The advantage is not another AI summary. It\'s the legwork PREDX removes from finding, matching, checking and organizing the information behind a market.","without_title":"Without PREDX","without_metric":"6+ steps","without_metric_desc":"time spread across tabs and repeated checks","without_01":"Find the original news and determine what materially changed.","without_02":"Search Polymarket for every potentially related market.","without_03":"Match the event subject, action, outcome and deadline.","without_04":"Read full resolution rules and identify decisive conditions.","without_05":"Compare the news timeline with probability movement.","without_06":"Check volume, liquidity, spread and conflicting evidence.","with_title":"With PREDX","with_metric":"1 event","with_metric_desc":"the same research context, already connected","news_label":"NEWS","news_desc":"Verified reports are organized by publication time and source.","event_label":"EVENT","event_desc":"Material developments are combined into one evolving timeline.","markets_label":"MARKETS","markets_desc":"Direct, indirect and monitoring market connections are separated.","move_label":"MOVE","move_desc":"Probability changes sit beside volume and liquidity context.","rules_label":"RULES","rules_desc":"Resolution conditions and remaining unknowns stay visible.","next_label":"NEXT","next_desc":"The next source or condition worth monitoring is clear.","end_title":"Fewer tabs. Less searching. Faster context.","end_desc":"One event connects the news, affected markets, reaction timeline and rules that determine what matters.","end_mono":"News → Event → Markets → Rules"},"research":{"eyebrow":"Research paths","title":"Questions you can research with PREDX","desc":"Follow a traceable path from breaking news to related markets, price reaction and resolution context.","q1_tag":"NEWS → MARKETS","q1_title":"How do you determine which Polymarket markets a news story affects?","q1_desc":"Identify News-to-Market Relevance","q2_tag":"RESOLUTION","q2_title":"How do you determine whether a news story satisfies a Polymarket market\'s resolution conditions?","q2_desc":"Check Whether News Meets Resolution Conditions","q3_tag":"MARKET MOVE","q3_title":"How do you tell whether a Polymarket price move is genuine repricing or low-liquidity noise?","q3_desc":"Distinguish Repricing from Liquidity Noise","q4_tag":"NO REACTION","q4_title":"Why is there no clear Polymarket price move after important news?","q4_desc":"Explain Muted Price Reactions to Important News","q5_tag":"VOLUME & LIQUIDITY","q5_title":"How do you determine whether a probability move is supported by volume and liquidity?","q5_desc":"Assess Market-Structure Support for Probability Moves"},"product_faq":{"eyebrow":"Product FAQ","title":"Clear answers before you start.","desc":"What PREDX is, how it works and what it doesn\'t do.","q1":"What is PREDX?","a1":"PREDX is news intelligence for Polymarket traders. It helps users discover news that may be relevant to active Polymarket markets, see which markets it affects, and understand how prices react. PREDX connects breaking news with relevant markets, resolution rules, and near-real-time market reactions. It organizes related reports into events, maps those events to active markets, and brings price, volume, liquidity, and timeline context into one connected research path. PREDX is an independent product and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or officially connected to Polymarket.","q2":"How is PREDX different from Polymarket?","a2":"Polymarket provides the prediction markets and trading venue; PREDX provides the news intelligence and research context around those markets. PREDX organizes breaking news into events, connects those events with relevant Polymarket markets, and presents resolution and market-reaction context alongside them. This gives traders a direct path from a developing story to the markets connected to it and the way those markets are responding. PREDX is an independent product and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or officially connected to Polymarket.","q3":"How does PREDX connect news with Polymarket markets?","a3":"PREDX turns related news reports into structured events and connects each event with relevant active Polymarket markets. It aligns the people, organizations, actions, outcomes, timing, and deadlines in the news with the questions and conditions of active markets. PREDX then organizes the resulting relationships by relevance and presents them in an event-to-market map, allowing one developing story to connect with multiple related contracts. These relationships show how news and markets are connected; they do not by themselves prove that the news caused a price movement.","q4":"Why are resolution rules important?","a4":"Resolution rules define the conditions under which a Polymarket market settles. PREDX places those conditions alongside the related news and event context. Users can review the market question, qualifying language, deadline, and designated resolution source together with the event. This makes it easier to distinguish between news that is broadly related to a market and news that addresses a specific settlement condition. Terms such as \\"announced,\\" \\"signed,\\" \\"implemented,\\" and \\"completed\\" can carry different meanings under the rules. PREDX provides resolution context but does not determine Polymarket\'
1s official resolution.","q5":"How does PREDX help users understand market reactions?","a5":"PREDX aligns timestamped news and events with price movement, trading volume, and liquidity, giving users a clearer view of how a market reacted. Users can see what changed, when it changed, how trading activity developed, and whether available liquidity supports a more stable interpretation of the move. The combined timeline makes it easier to compare the release of information with the market\'s response without treating timing as proof of causation. Market prices reflect trading activity and can be influenced by liquidity, spreads, and participant behavior; they are not verified facts or guaranteed probabilities.","q6":"How is PREDX different from a general-purpose AI assistant?","a6":"PREDX is built specifically for news intelligence around Polymarket, while a general-purpose AI assistant supports a much broader range of questions and tasks. PREDX brings breaking news, structured events, active markets, resolution rules, and timestamped market reactions into one specialized workflow. Instead of stopping at a standalone news summary, it connects a developing story with the markets it affects and the way those markets are responding. This gives Polymarket traders a focused, market-specific research path while complementing the broader capabilities of general-purpose AI assistants.","q7":"Does PREDX provide trading advice, predict outcomes, or trade automatically?","a7":"No. PREDX does not provide personalized trading or investment advice, predict future outcomes, guarantee returns, trade automatically, or copy other traders. PREDX provides news intelligence, market relationships, resolution context, and market-reaction information to support users\' own research. Users remain responsible for reviewing the complete market rules, conducting independent research, making their own trading decisions, and assessing liquidity, costs, eligibility, and risk. Prediction markets carry the risk of loss, including the possible loss of the full amount committed."},"closing":{"eyebrow":"PREDX / event intelligence for Polymarket","title1":"Read the event.","title2":"Interrogate the price.","desc":"Open the research path behind a market move: the fact, the market relationship, the rule and the next observation.","cta":"Explore PREDX →"},"footer":{"copyright":"© 2026 PREDX","disclaimer":"Prediction markets carry risk, including total loss. Always do your own research."},"panels":{"mapping":{"title":"Mapping layer","tag":"live","ingest_label":"Ingest","ingest_val":"\\"Trump signs executive order on China tariffs\\"","event_label":"Event","event_val":"US–China Trade 2026","clustered_label":"Clustered","clustered_val":"7 headlines","markets_matched":"Markets matched","m1":"Trump 25%+ China tariff?","m2":"US–China deal before July?","m3":"Recession called in 2026?","tag_primary":"primary","tag_secondary":"secondary","tag_tertiary":"tertiary","related":"→ <b>5 related markets</b> surfaced under this event ✓"},"trust":{"title":"🔍 Resolution Verdict","tag":"5-dimension check","market_label":"Market","market_val":"25%+ China tariff by Apr 15?","verdict_label":"Verdict","verdict_val":"LIKELY NO","subject_label":"Subject","subject_val":"Trump + EO — match","action_label":"Action","action_val":"EO signed — confirmed","qualifier_label":"Qualifier","qualifier_val":"\\"25%+\\" vs EO \\"up to 25%\\"","deadline_label":"Deadline","deadline_val":"EO effective Apr 15 — tight","source_label":"Source","source_val":"official document","uma_label":"UMA dispute risk","uma_val":"HIGH","confidence":"Confidence <b>82%</b> · 4 independent sources"}},"svg":{"flow":{"news":"NEWS","news_h1":"Trump signs executive order","news_h2":"on China tariffs","news_meta":"Reuters · Bloomberg · 2m ago","market":"MARKET","market_q1":"Trump 25%+ China","market_q2":"tariff by Apr 15?","yes":"YES 78¢ ▲","no":"NO 22¢","signal":"SIGNAL","mispricing":"Mispricing · LIKELY NO","gap":"Edge 53 pts","market_to_fair":"market 0.78 → fair ~0.25","maps":"maps","verify":"verify","explain":"explain"},"loop":{"monitors":"monitors price · volume · liquidity · wallets · resolution","news":"News","finds_it":"finds 
1it","event":"Event","organizes_it":"organizes it","markets":"Markets","price_it":"price it","signal":"Signal","explains_it":"explains it","you":"You","watch":"watch · track · trade"},"mapping":{"event_name":"US–China Trade 2026","event_sub":"Event · 7 headlines clustered","m1":"Trump 25%+ China tariff?","m2":"US–China deal before July?","m3":"Tariffs above 10% in 2026?","m4":"US recession called in 2026?","m5":"S&P down 5% this month?","primary":"Primary","secondary":"Secondary","tertiary":"Tertiary"}}}}'))},70812,e=>{e.v(JSON.parse('{"research":{"labels":{"directAnswer":"Direct Answer","decisionOutput":"Decision Output","method":"Method","dataToReview":"Data to Review","limitations":"Limitations","caseStudy":"Case Study","infoAvailable":"Information available at the time","assessments":"Relationship / resolution assessment","conclusion":"Final outcomes compared with the assessment","howPredxHelps":"How PREDX Helps","sources":"Sources / Last Updated","lastUpdated":"Last updated","relatedGuides":"Related Guides","disclaimer":"Disclaimer","backToResearch":"← Research Paths"},"scenarios":[{"h1":"How Do You Determine Which Polymarket Markets a News Story Affects?","directAnswer":["A news story is relevant to a Polymarket market when the reported facts change information connected to the market question or resolution conditions—not merely when the headline mentions the same person, company, country, or event. Compare the news subject, action, qualifiers, and timing with the market question, outcomes, deadline, and complete rules.","This page answers which markets are related to the news. Relevance does not mean that the news has satisfied a market\'s resolution conditions; Scenario 2 evaluates that separately."],"decisionOutput":[{"term":"Primary","def":"The reported facts directly map to the subject, action, outcome, or rule window in the market question and materially change the market-relevant assessment."},{"term":"Secondary","def":"The news changes the event path, but one or more subsequent conditions are still required."},{"term":"Tertiary","def":"An explainable event chain or macro relationship exists, but it is remote from the specific resolution conditions."},{"term":"None","def":"The subject, action, qualifier, outcome, deadline, or rules do not match."}],"method":["Find the earliest official announcement or credible primary report; record the subject, action, qualifiers, first-publication time, and source.","Retrieve candidate markets by person, organization, country, policy, team, or event. Keywords retrieve candidates; they do not decide relevance.","Verify the canonical market, Market ID, Condition ID, outcomes, status, and deadline.","Read the complete resolution rules and distinguish announcement, signature, effective date, implementation, and completion.","Classify each candidate as Primary / Secondary / Tertiary / None.","If describing market reaction, compare consistently measured price, volume, spread, and depth with precise timestamps."],"dataToReview":["Original news, source, first-publication time, and official confirmation time;","News subject, action, qualifiers, and effective time;","Market question, Market ID, Condition ID, outcomes, status, and deadline;","Complete rules, designated source, and rule-change history;","Timestamped probability, volume, spread, and order-book depth;","Data-retrieval and page-update times."],"limitations":["Primary identifies a direct news-to-market relationship; it does not automatically mean that resolution conditions are satisfied.","A contemporaneous market move after publication does not prove that the news caused the move. The market may have partly priced it in or reacted to other information.","A credible media report is not necessarily the final resolution source designated by the rules.","Similar markets may use different deadlines and must be verified separately.","A market price is a trading outcome, not a fact or guaranteed true probability."],"caseStudy":{"title":"Biden Withdraws from the 2024 Presidential Race","info":"On July 21, 2024, Joe Biden announced through a public letter that he would not seek reelection.","assessments":[{"market":"Biden drops out of presidential race?","href":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race","label":"Primary — subject and formal withdrawal action matched the rules."},{"market":"Biden drops out before the Democratic convention?","href":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-before-the-democratic-national-convention","label":"Primary — announcement preceded the convention\'s August 19, 2024 start."},{"market":"Biden drops out by July 4?","href":"https://polymarket.com/event/biden-drops-out-after-debate","label":"None — topically related, but announcement came after July 4, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET and fell outside the rule window."}],"conclusion":"Market ID 252294 resolved Yes; Market ID 502957 resolved Yes; Market ID 502223 resolved No. The final outcomes were consistent with the rule-window asse
1ssment: one story can be directly relevant to some markets while leaving the outcome of a same-topic market unchanged after its rule window has closed."},"howPredxHelps":"PREDX organizes news reports into events, matches relevant Polymarket markets, and separates direct, indirect, and monitoring relationships. Users can review reports organized by publication time and source in <a href=\'/news\'>News</a>, inspect related markets in <a href=\'/market\'>Market</a>, and examine timestamped market reactions in <a href=\'/signal\'>Signal</a>.","lastUpdated":"August 20, 2026","relatedGuides":[{"text":"How do you determine whether a news story satisfies a Polymarket market\'s resolution conditions?","id":2},{"text":"Why is there no clear Polymarket price move after important news?","id":4}],"disclaimer":"Prediction-market prices are formed through trading; they are not ground truth. PREDX does not determine Polymarket\'s official resolution and does not provide investment or trading advice."},{"h1":"How Do You Determine Whether a News Story Satisfies a Polymarket Market\'s Resolution Conditions?","directAnswer":["A resolution-condition assessment is supported only when the reported facts clearly satisfy, negate, or partially satisfy conditions in a specific Polymarket market\'s complete rules. An important story, a shared topic, or a contemporaneous price move after publication does not mean that the conditions are satisfied.","This page evaluates the subject, action, qualifiers, deadline, and designated source for one verified market. It does not retrieve other related markets. PREDX does not determine Polymarket\'
1s official resolution."],"decisionOutput":[{"term":"Satisfied","def":"Available evidence clearly meets every essential rule condition."},{"term":"Not Satisfied","def":"At least one required condition is clearly negated or can no longer be met."},{"term":"Partially Satisfied","def":"Some conditions are met, but at least one required condition remains unmet."}],"method":["Verify the specific market\'s Market ID, Condition ID, outcomes, and complete rules.","Check whether the news subject matches the subject specified by the rules.","Distinguish planning, announcement, signature, effective date, implementation, and completion.","Verify figures, legal status, geography, and other qualifiers.","Check whether the occurrence and effective times fall within the rule window.","Confirm whether the evidence comes from a source accepted by the rules; credible media and a designated resolution source are not interchangeable.","List satisfied, unsatisfied, and unresolved conditions before assigning a label."],"dataToReview":["Market ID, Condition ID, question, outcomes, and status;","Complete rules, designated source, deadline, and rule-change history;","Original news, official documents, first-publication time, and effective time;","Key wording, figures, and legal or procedural status;","Current visible proposal, dispute, or final resolution status;","Data source and update time."],"limitations":["News relevance does not equal satisfaction of resolution conditions.","A title is a summary; the complete rules define settlement conditions.","An official announcement may confirm intent without meeting an effective, implemented, or completed requirement.","A price move shows contemporaneous repricing by participants; it does not prove that the conditions are satisfied.","PREDX provides rule and evidence context but does not replace Polymarket\'
1s formal resolution mechanism."],"caseStudy":{"title":"Why Did the Same Withdrawal Announcement Correspond to Different Outcomes?","info":"On July 21, 2024, Biden publicly announced that he would not seek reelection.","assessments":[{"market":"Convention-deadline market (Market ID 502957)","href":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-before-the-democratic-national-convention","label":"Satisfied — subject, formal withdrawal action, source, and pre-August 19 deadline all matched."},{"market":"July 4 deadline market (Market ID 502223)","href":"https://polymarket.com/event/biden-drops-out-after-debate","label":"Not Satisfied — subject, action, and source matched, but announcement came after July 4 at 11:59 PM ET."}],"conclusion":"Market ID 502957 resolved Yes; Market ID 502223 resolved No. The final outcomes were consistent with the rule assessment; the difference came from the rule deadlines, not whether the news was true."},"howPredxHelps":"PREDX connects reports organized by publication time and source with the corresponding event and related markets in one research path, allowing users to continue to the market question and rule context. Users must still evaluate the complete rules condition by condition; PREDX does not make the official resolution decision.","lastUpdated":"August 20, 2026","relatedGuides":[{"text":"How do you determine which Polymarket markets a news story affects?","id":1},{"text":"Why is there no clear Polymarket price move after important news?","id":4}],"disclaimer":"Rule analysis does not guarantee the formal proposal, dispute, or final resolution outcome. PREDX does not determine official resolution and does not provide investment or trading advice."},{"h1":"How Do You Tell Whether a Polymarket Price Move Is Genuine Repricing or Low-Liquidity Noise?","note":"This page classifies the nature of the move. Scenario 5 separately grades market-structure support as strong, moderate, or weak.","directAnswer":["The key question is whether the move formed through sequential trades and an observable price-discovery process or was amplified by very few trades, a wide spread, thin depth, or stale quotes. Multiple trades, continued activity near the new price, and persistence are more consistent with genuine repricing; a jump from very few trades, a wide spread, or a rapid reversal is more consistent with low-liquidity noise."],"decisionOutput":[{"term":"Genuine Repricing","def":"The trade path, quotes, and persistence jointly support an observable price-discovery process."},{"term":"Low-Liquidity Noise","def":"Very few trades, a wide spread, thin depth, stale quotes, or a rapid reversal make the observed move more consistent with low-liquidity noise."},{"term":"Mixed","def":"Actual trading and low-liquidity amplification coexist."}],"method":["Distinguish displayed price, last traded price, best bid, best ask, and executable price.","Reconstruct the trade path and determine whether sequential trades or a single trade produced the move.","Check quote and last-trade update times to exclude stale prices.","Inspect the spread, order-book imbalance, and price impact per unit of traded notional.","Determine whether the new price persists and continues trading or quickly returns to its prior range.","Compare related markets and contemporaneous information as consistency evidence, not proof of news causation."],"dataToReview":["Consistently measured, timestamped probability before and after the move;","Trade-by-trade time, price, count, and notional;","Best bid, best ask, spread, and multi-level order book;","Quote and last-trade update times;","Persistence and reversal path;","Contemporaneous related-market changes and first-publication time of relevant news."],"limitations":["Genuine Repricing means a more complete price-discovery process was observed; it does not mean the new price is correct.","A large trade is not necessarily manipulation; motive requires additional evidence.","Multiple trades may come from one participant. Do not claim broad confirmation without reliable wallet data.","Timing proximity between publication and price movement does not prove causation.","A market price is not a fact or guaranteed true probability."],"howPredxHelps":"PREDX connects time-organized news, related markets, and timestamped price changes in one research path. Users can review report timelines in <a href=\'/news\'>News</a>, inspect price, volume, and liquidity context in <a href=\'/market\'>Market</a>, and review market changes requiring further research in <a href=\'/signal\'>Signal</a>.","lastUpdated":"August 20, 2026","relatedGuides":[{"text":"How do you determine whether a probability move is supported by volume and liquidity?","id":5},{"text":"Why is there no clear Polymarket price move after important news?","id":4}],"disclaimer":"Price, trades, spread, and order-book data describe trading conditions; they do not prove that an outcome will occur. PREDX does not provide investment or trading advice."},{"h1":"Why Is There No Clear Polymarket Price Move After Important News?","directAnswer":["No clear price move after important news does not necessarily mean that the market or system missed the story. More common explanations include partial prior pricing, no change to resolution conditions, offsetting contemporaneous information, or slow price discovery in a lightly traded market.","“No clear move” describes an observation within a selected window. It does not prove that the story was fully priced in or had no market relevance."],"decisionOutput":[{"term":"Likely Priced In","def":"Traceable public information and same-direction market movement existed before publication, making partial prior pricing the better-supported explanation."}
1,{"term":"Not Resolution-Relevant","def":"The story is topically related but does not change the specific resolution conditions."},{"term":"Offsetting Information","def":"Opposing information appeared during the same period and may have counterbalanced the observed reaction."},{"term":"Slow Price Discovery","def":"Low activity, a wide spread, or limited depth is consistent with slow or muted price discovery."}],"note":"These labels can coexist and should be ranked by evidentiary strength rather than treated as mutually exclusive.","method":["Define the observation window and compare percentage-point change, volume, spread, and the order book.","Inspect pre-publication movement and earlier public signals without immediately inferring insider trading.","Determine whether the news changes the subject, action, qualifiers, deadline, or designated source.","Separate new facts and official confirmation from repeated reporting and commentary.","Check the number and quality of sources and identify missing details.","Look for other news, data, and related-market moves that may offset the effect.","Check trading activity, spread, depth, and quote-update time.","Select the explanation with the strongest evidence while retaining reasonable alternatives."],"dataToReview":["Earliest public source, subsequent reports, and official confirmation times;","Timestamped probability snapshots before publication, after publication, and after confirmation;","Volume, trade count, spread, and depth over the same windows;","Complete resolution rules and the news-to-rule mapping;","Other contemporaneous news, data, and related-market movement;","Retrieval time and timestamp precision."],"limitations":["Likely Priced In is an explanation based on visible public information; it does not prove complete prior pricing.","A short window may miss a slow response; a long window may include unrelated events.","A market may react and reverse, so endpoint comparisons can miss intrawindow movement.","Polymarket uses a CLOB; a muted response should not be attributed generically to “AMM delay.”","Sequence can guide investigation, but it cannot prove by itself that news caused or failed to cause a price move."],"howPredxHelps":"PREDX places reports organized by publication time and source, related markets, and timestamped market reactions in one research path. Users can inspect event timelines in <a href=\'/news\'>News</a>, compare price, volume, and liquidity in <a href=\'/market\'>Market</a>, and review changes worth continued monitoring in <a href=\'/signal\'>Signal</a>.","lastUpdated":"August 20, 2026","relatedGuides":[{"text":"How do you determine which Polymarket markets a news story affects?","id":1},{"text":"How do you determine whether a news story satisfies a Polymarket market\'s resolution conditions?","id":2},{"text":"How do you determine whether a probability move is supported by volume and liquidity?","id":5}],"disclaimer":"Neither the importance of a story nor the market\'s reaction alone proves a future outcome. PREDX does not determine official resolution and does not provide investment or trading advice."},{"h1":"How Do You Determine Whether a Probability Move Is Supported by Volume and Liquidity?","note":"This page grades structural support; it does not reclassify the move as genuine repricing or low-liquidity noise. Strong / Moderate / Weak are qualitative evidence grades relative to the market\'s own historical baseline. They are not official Polymarket ratings or universal cross-market thresholds.","directAnswer":["Volume and liquidity cannot prove that a new market probability is correct, but they can indicate whether the move has strong, moderate, or weak participation and executability support. The assessment requires a defined window and comparison with the market\'s own historical baseline."],"decisionOutput":[{"term":"Strong","def":"Volume is clearly above the market\'s own baseline, multiple trades participate, the spread is reasonable, executable depth remains near the new price, and the move persists."},{"term":"Moderate","def":"Some indicators support the move, but trade concentration, spread, depth, or persistence is weak in at least one dimension."},{"term":"Weak","def":"Volume is low or concentrated in very few trades, the spread is wide, depth is thin, or the price quickly reverses."}],"method":["Fix the move window and record starting probability, ending probability, and percentage-point change.","Compare window volume with a rolling median or robust mean for c
1omparable periods in the same market.","Review trade count, size distribution, and participation concentration when reliably available.","Read best bid, best ask, and spread for the same outcome, distinguishing displayed price from executable price.","Estimate order-book depth within one-, two-, or five-percentage-point impact bands.","Check whether trading continues near the new price, depth remains available, and the move avoids a rapid reversal.","Assign Strong / Moderate / Weak and list supporting and opposing evidence."],"dataToReview":["Current and prior probabilities, percentage-point move, and start and end times;","One-hour and 24-hour volume plus a seven-day or longer historical baseline;","Trade count, size distribution, and reliable participation concentration;","Best bid, best ask, spread, and multi-level order-book depth;","Executable notional at different slippage levels;","Persistence, reversal size, and data-update time."],"limitations":["Do not use a universal dollar threshold that has not been calibrated to the market category and historical baseline.","High volume may reflect controversy, hedging, or short-term speculation; it does not mean the consensus is more accurate.","Adequate depth now does not guarantee adequate depth in the next moment.","High cumulative volume does not mean recent activity is high; always use a defined window.","Strong means stronger participation and executability evidence. It does not mean the outcome will occur or a trade will be profitable."],"howPredxHelps":"PREDX connects related news, markets, and timestamped price reactions. Users can inspect price, volume, and liquidity context in <a href=\'/market\'>Market</a>, review changes requiring further research in <a href=\'/signal\'>Signal</a>, and return to the event\'s report timeline in <a href=\'/news\'>News</a>.","lastUpdated":"August 20, 2026","relatedGuides":[{"text":"How do you tell whether a Polymarket price move is genuine repricing or low-liquidity noise?","id":3},{"text":"Why is there no clear Polymarket price move after important news?","id":4}],"disclaimer":"Volume, liquidity, spread, and order-book depth describe market-participation support and tradability only; they do not guarantee outcomes or returns. PREDX does not provide investment or trading advice."}]}}'))},260470,e=>{e.v({"Market Order":"Market",trade_address_warning_desc:"Sending funds here will <strong>lose them permanently</strong>. To add funds, use the <strong>Deposit</strong> button.","Latest News":"Latest News","Expiration time must be in the future":"Expiration time must be in the future","Sell position":"Sell position","Estimated proceeds":"Estimated proceeds","Estimated fill":"Estimated fill","Sell shares":"Sell shares","Sell percentage":"Sell percentage","No bids available":"No bids available","You can edit the order and place a limit sell order.":"You can edit the order and place a limit sell order.","Limited bid liquidity":"Limited bid liquidity","{shares} shares are expected to remain unfilled and will be cancelled.":"{shares} shares are expected to remain unfilled and will be cancelled.","Edit Order":"Edit Order","Selling...":"Selling...","Market sell":"Market sell","Actual proceeds depend on execution.":"Actual proceeds depend on execution.","Sell order submitted":"Sell order submitted","Minimum sell size is {size} shares.":"Minimum sell size is {size} shares.","View Market":"View Market","Entry price":"Entry price","Signal expires in":"Signal expires in","Signal expired":"Signal expired","Signal Level":"Signal Level",Strong:"Strong",Moderate:"Moderate","Live Signals":"Live Signals","Strategy Win Rate":"Strategy Win Rate","Historical Return":"Historical Return","{count} Samples":"{count} Samples",Backtest:"Backtest","Opening Backtest...":"Opening Backtest...","Unable to open backtest. Please try again.":"Unable to open backtest. Please try again.",Volume:"Volume","Market time (ET)":"Market time (ET)","Market commentary":"Market commentary","What it means":"What it means","© 2026 PREDX":"© 2026 PREDX","All rights reserved.":"All rights reserved.","For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.":"For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.","Share (unit)":"Share","share (unit)":"share","{count} Sample":"{count} Sample","Minimum sell size is {size} share.":"Minimum sell size is {size} share.","{shares} share is expected to remain unfilled and will be cancelled.":"{shares} share is expected to remain unfilled and will be cancelled."})},132821,e=>{e.v(JSON.parse('{"legal":{"privacy":{"title":"Privacy Policy","hero_copy":"PREDX is a Polymarket-native research and signal layer that helps users understand financial news, events, market pricing, and on-chain activity. This policy explains how we 
1collect, use, share, and protect information.","effective":"Effective date: July 1, 2026","last_updated":"Last updated: July 1, 2026","toc":{"label":"Contents","intro":"Introduction","data":"Information We Collect","ai":"AI Features","use":"How We Use Information","sharing":"How We Share Information","retention":"Data Retention","rights":"Your Rights","security":"Security","children":"Children\'s Privacy","contact":"Contact Us"},"sections":{"intro":"<h2>Introduction</h2><p>Welcome to PREDX (\\"we,\\" \\"us,\\" or \\"our\\"). PREDX is a research and market signal product for Polymarket users, helping people understand market movements through financial news, event context, market prices, on-chain data, and AI-assisted analysis.</p><p>This Privacy Policy explains how we process information when you use our mobile application, website (<a href=\\"/home\\">https://predx.news/home</a>), and related services (collectively, the \\"Services\\").</p>","data":"<h3>Information You Provide</h3><ul><li><strong>Account information:</strong> When you register or sign in, we may collect your email address, username, account identifier, and authentication status.</li><li><strong>Wallet information:</strong> If you connect a wallet or navigate from PREDX to a third-party trading context, we may process your public wallet address and connection status.</li><li><strong>Communications:</strong> When you contact support, we collect the information you provide in your message.</li><li><strong>Preferences and saved content:</strong> If you save markets, events, signals, or watchlists, we record those preferences to sync your experience.</li></ul><h3>Information Collected Automatically</h3><ul><li><strong>Usage data:</strong> Information about the news, events, market pages, signal cards, filters, and features you use.</li><li><strong>Device information:</strong> Device type, operating system, browser type, IP address, app version, language settings, and mobile device identifiers.</li><li><strong>On-chain and public market data:</strong> Polymarket market prices, trades, liquidity, and public on-chain activity may come from public data sources or third-party providers.</li><li><strong>Cookies and similar technologies:</strong> We may use cookies or similar technologies to maintain sessions, analyze usage patterns, and improve the experience.</li></ul>","ai":"<h2>AI Features</h2><p>PREDX uses AI capabilities to support news understanding, event clustering, market mapping, signal explanation, and research summaries. To provide these features, we may process queries or feedback you voluntarily submit, as well as non-personal public news, market, and on-chain context.</p><p>We do not intentionally send your real name, email address, account ID, or other unnecessary personally identifiable information to AI service providers. AI outputs are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, legal, or tax advice.</p>","use":"<h2>How We Use Information</h2><ul class=\\"signal-list\\"><li>Provide, maintain, and improve PREDX news analysis, event organization, market mapping, and signal explanation.</li><li>Sync your account, saved content, watchlists, alerts, and product preferences.</li><li>Analyze feature usage, performance, and stability to improve the user experience.</li><li>Send account, product, security, or service-related notifications.</li><li>Provide customer support and respond to requests.</li><li>Comply with legal obligations, platform rules, and enforce our Terms of Service.</li></ul>","sharing":"<h2>How We Share Information</h2><h3>Public Information</h3><p>Blockchain transactions, public wallet activity, and public market data may be publicly available by nature and may not be deleted or modified by PREDX. PREDX may display or analyze this public data, but we do not control its source or permanence.</p><h3>Service Providers</h3><p>We may share necessary information with service providers that help us operate the Services, such as cloud infrastructure, authentication, analytics, crash diagnostics, AI capabilities, customer support, and n
1otification services.</p><h3>Legal Requirements and Business Transfers</h3><p>We may disclose information if required by law, regulation, court order, or government request, or to protect the rights, property, and safety of us, users, or third parties. If we are involved in a merger, acquisition, financing, or asset transfer, information may be transferred as part of that transaction.</p>","retention":"<h2>Data Retention</h2><p>We retain information for as long as needed to provide the Services, comply with legal obligations, resolve disputes, and enforce agreements. You may contact us to request deletion of your account and related off-chain data. Blockchain and public market data may be permanent and cannot be deleted or modified by PREDX.</p>","rights":"<h2>Your Rights and Choices</h2><p>Depending on your location and applicable law, you may have rights to access, correct, delete, restrict, object to processing, opt out of marketing communications, or request a portable copy of your personal information. You can submit requests using the contact information below.</p>","security":"<h2>Security</h2><p>We use reasonable technical and organizational measures to protect information from unauthorized access, alteration, disclosure, or destruction. However, no system is completely secure, and we cannot guarantee absolute security.</p><div class=\\"note\\">If you connect a wallet or use third-party trading services, you are responsible for protecting your private keys, seed phrases, devices, and account credentials. PREDX will never ask for your private key or seed phrase.</div>","children":"<h2>Children\'s Privacy</h2><p>PREDX is not intended for users under 18. We do not knowingly collect personal information from children. If you believe we have collected children\'s information, please contact us.</p>","contact":"<h2>Contact Us</h2><p>If you have questions, concerns, or requests about this Privacy Policy or our privacy practices, please contact us.</p><div class=\\"contact-card\\"><strong>AIPOLLO PTE. LTD.</strong><span>Product: PREDX</span><span>Email: [email protected]</span><span>Website: <a href=\\"/home\\">https://predx.news/home</a></span></div>"}},"tos":{"title":"Terms of Service","hero_copy":"Please read these Terms of Service carefully. These Terms form a binding legal agreement between you and AIPOLLO PTE. LTD. and govern your access to and use of PREDX.","effective":"Effective date: July 1, 2026","last_updated":"Last updated: July 1, 2026","toc":{"label":"Contents","intro":"Acceptance","eligibility":"Eligibility","services":"Nature of Services","third-party":"Third-Party Services","trading":"Trading, Fees, and Taxes","ai":"AI and Information","conduct":"Acceptable Use","ip":"Intellectual Property","disclaimer":"Disclaimers","liability":"Limitation of Liability","law":"Governing Law","contact":"Contact Us"},"sections":{"intro":"<h2>Acceptance of Terms</h2><p>These Terms of Service (the \\"Terms\\") apply to your access to and use of the PREDX application, website (<a href=\\"/home\\">https://predx.news/home</a>), and any related products, features, content, and services (collectively, the \\"Services\\"). The Services are provided by AIPOLLO PTE. LTD. (\\"PREDX,\\" \\"we,\\" \\"us,\\" or \\"our\\").</p><p>By accessing or using the Services, you confirm that you have read, understood, and agree to be bound by these Terms. If you do not agree to these Terms, you must not access or use the Services.</p><p><strong>Arbitration notice and class action waiver:</strong> These Terms contain provisions governing dispute resolution, binding arbitration, and a waiver of class or representative proceedings. They affect how disputes between you and us are resolved.</p>","eligibility":"<h2>1. Eligibility and Restricted Jurisdictions</h2><h3>1.1 General Eligibility</h3><p>To access or use the Services, you represent and warrant that you are at least eighteen (18) years old, or the age of majority in your jurisdiction, and that you have the legal capacity to enter into these Terms.</p><h3>1.2 Restricted Jurisdictions</h3><p>To comply with global regulatory requirements, platform policies, and international sanctions rules, users from the following jurisdictions are strictly prohibited: Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Russia, Belarus, sanctioned regions of Ukraine including Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, Venezuela, Myanmar, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Australia, Singapore, and Mainland China (collectively, \\"Restricted Jurisdictions\\").</p><p>By accessing or using the Services, you represent and warrant that you are not located in any Restricted Jurisdiction and are not using the Services on behalf of any person or entity in a Restricted Jurisdiction. Use of VPNs, proxies, location spoofing, or any other method to circumvent these restrictions is strictly prohibited.</p>","services":"<h2>2. Nature of the Services</h2><p>PREDX provides information organization, market research, data display, alerts, and AI-assisted analysis. We may display or organize information from public sources, third-party services, prediction markets, blockchain networks, or other data providers.</p><p>PREDX is not a broker, exchange, investment adviser, financial adviser, legal adviser, tax adviser, custodian, payment institution, fiduciary, or trustee. We do not execute trades on your behalf, manage your funds, hold your private keys, or owe fiduciary duties with respect to your trading, investment, or other decisions.</p>","third-party":"<h2>3. Third-Party Services and Non-Custodial Nature</h2><p>The Services may contain links to or integrations with third-party websites, applications, wallets, protocols, markets, data sources, payment services, or other services. Third-party services are not controlled by us and may be governed by their own terms, privacy policies, fees, risk disclosures, and geographic restrictions.</p><p>If you connect a wallet, access a third-party market, or interact with a blockchain network, you are solely responsible for protecting your private keys, seed phrases, devices, account credentials, and transaction security. Blockchain transactions are generally public, final, irreversible, and immutable.</p>","trading":"<h2>4. Trading, Fees, and Taxes</h2><h3>4.1 Assumption of Risk</h3><p>You are solely responsible for all risks related to transactions and prediction market activities. PREDX is not responsible for financial losses for any reason, including extreme market volatility, insufficient liquidity, sudden price movements, data delays, failed transactions, network congestion, smart contract vulnerabilities, third-party service failures, or user error.</p><h3>4.2 Fees</h3><p>For transactions valued at USD 5.00 or more, we may charge a fee of up to 1%; for transactions below USD 5.00, we may charge a fixed fee of up to USD 0.05. Fees may be automatically deducted at execution, and additional fees may be charged by third-party services, network providers, payment processors, or protocols.</p><h3>4.3 Taxes</h3><p>You are solely responsible for determining whether your use of PREDX gives rise to any tax obligations. Reporting and paying the correct taxes to the relevant tax authorities is your responsibility.</p>","ai":"<h2>5. AI Features and Informational Content</h2><p>The Services may include content generated, organized, or assisted by artificial intelligence, automated models, or algorithms. Such content may be inaccurate, incomplete, outdated, or unsuitable for your specific circumstances.</p><p>Any news summary, market description, probability, tag, signal, score, view, explanation, alert, or AI output is provided solely for general informational and research purposes and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, hold, trade, or participate in any asset, market, strategy, or transaction.</p>","conduct":"<h2>6. Acceptable Use</h2><p>You agree that you will not, and will not assist others to:</p><ul><li>use the Services in violation of any applicable law, regulation, sanction, platform rule, or third-party right;</li><li>
1engage in fraud, market manipulation, misleading statements, harassment, abuse, spam, or other harmful conduct;</li><li>bypass access controls, geographic restrictions, security measures, or authentication mechanisms;</li><li>scrape, copy, resell, redistribute, train models on, or commercially exploit service content without authorization;</li><li>interfere with, disrupt, reverse engineer, scan, test, or attempt unauthorized access to the Services or related systems.</li></ul>","ip":"<h2>7. Intellectual Property and User Content</h2><p>The software, interface, design, text, charts, curated data, brand, trademarks, logos, and other content in the Services are protected by intellectual property laws. Except as expressly permitted by these Terms, you may not copy, modify, distribute, sell, rent, reverse engineer, or create derivative works from the Services.</p><p>You retain ownership of content you submit to the Services, but you grant us a worldwide, non-exclusive, royalty-free license to use, host, copy, display, process, and distribute such content as reasonably necessary to operate, maintain, improve, and promote the Services.</p>","disclaimer":"<h2>8. Disclaimers</h2><p>The Services are provided on an \\"as is\\" and \\"as available\\" basis. To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, we expressly disclaim all warranties, whether express, implied, statutory, or otherwise.</p><p>Prediction markets, digital assets, blockchain networks, and related data involve significant risks, including price volatility, insufficient liquidity, technical failures, smart contract vulnerabilities, network congestion, data delays, regulatory changes, and total loss. You assume all risks arising from your use of the Services and reliance on any information.</p><div class=\\"note\\">PREDX does not promise profits, does not guarantee prediction accuracy, and does not represent that any market, event, asset, or contract outcome will occur.</div>","liability":"<h2>9. Limitation of Liability and Indemnification</h2><p>To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, AIPOLLO PTE. LTD. and its affiliates, directors, employees, contractors, agents, and service providers will not be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential, punitive, or exemplary damages, including loss of profits, data, goodwill, business interruption, trading losses, or digital asset losses.</p><p>You agree to indemnify, defend, and hold harmless us and related parties from and against any claims, liabilities, damages, losses, costs, and expenses, including reasonable attorneys\' fees, arising from your use of the Services, violation of these Terms, or infringement of third-party rights.</p>","termination":"<h2>10. Suspension, Termination, and Changes</h2><p>We may suspend, restrict, or terminate your access to the Services if you violate these Terms, create risk or legal exposure, or if we need to protect the Services, users, third parties, or our rights. We may also modify, suspend, or discontinue all or part of the Services at any time.</p><p>We may update these Terms from time to time. Continued use of the Services after updated Terms are posted means you accept the changes.</p>","law":"<h2>11. Governing Law and Dispute Resolution</h2><p>These Terms and any dispute arising out of or relating to them or the Services will be governed by and interpreted under the laws of the Republic of Singapore, without regard to conflict of law principles.</p><p>Any dispute shall be referred to and finally resolved by arbitration administered by the Singapore International Arbitration Centre (SIAC). The seat of arbitration shall be Singapore, the language shall be English, and the tribunal shall consist of one arbitrator.</p><p>You and PREDX agree that claims may be brought only on an individual basis and not as a plaintiff or class member in any class, consolidated, or representative proceeding.</p>","contact":"<h2>12. 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Reach us using the details below.</p><div class=\\"contact-card\\"><span><strong>Email</strong></span><span><a href=\\"mailto:[email protected]\\">[email protected]</a></span><span><strong>Website</strong></span><span><a href=\\"https://predx.pro\\" target=\\"_blank\\" rel=\\"noreferrer\\">https://predx.pro</a></span><span><strong>Developer / Company</strong></span><span>AIPOLLO PTE. 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Line numbers count LF bytes from the start of the resource, as the search results do. Vendor segments are library code the classifier recognised; they are stored but not indexed. Bytes are shown as Latin1 characters, one per byte.