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296 .dark .site-description { 297 color: #fff; 298 } 299 .site-title::after{ 300 background: #fff; 301 content:""; 302 } 303 </style> 304 </head> 305<body class="home blog wp-embed-responsive wp-theme-nisarg light group-blog"> 306<div id="page" class="hfeed site"> 307<header id="masthead" role="banner"> 308 <nav id="site-navigation" class="main-navigation navbar-fixed-top navbar-left" role="navigation"> 309 <!-- Brand and toggle get grouped for better mobile display --> 310 <div class="container" id="navigation_menu"> 311 <div class="navbar-header"> 312 <a class="navbar-brand" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/">politicalbetting.com</a> 313 </div><!-- .navbar-header --> 314 </div><!--#container--> 315 </nav> 316 <div id="cc_spacer"></div><!-- used to clear fixed navigation by the themes js --> 317 318 <div class="site-header"> 319 <div class="site-branding"> 320 <a class="home-link" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/" title="politicalbetting.com" rel="home"> 321 <h1 class="site-title">politicalbetting.com</h1> 322 <h2 class="site-description">The web's premier resource for political betting.</h2> 323 </a> 324 </div><!--.site-branding--> 325 </div><!--.site-header--> 326 327</header> 328<div id="content" class="site-content"> 329 330 <div class="container"> 331 <div class="row"> 332 <div id="primary" class="col-md-9 content-area"> 333 <main id="main" class="site-main" role="main"> 334 335 336<article id="post-153476" class="post-content post-153476 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 337 338 339 340 <header class="entry-header"> 341 342 <span class="screen-reader-text">These MRPs should kibosh any chance of an early general election</span> 343 344 <h2 class="entry-title"> 345 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/" rel="bookmark">These MRPs should kibosh any chance of an early general election</a> 346 </h2> 347 348 <div class="entry-meta"> 349 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/" title="13:43" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-24T13:43:45+01:00" pubdate>24/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 350<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/#comments" class="comments-link" >150 Comments</a></h5> 351 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 352 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 353 354 <div class="entry-summary"> 355 <p>The most striking thing is how badly Reform will do once tactical voting kicks in. TSE</p> 356 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 357 358 <footer class="entry-footer"> 359 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 360</article><!-- #post-## --> 361 362<article id="post-153466" class="post-content post-153466 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 363 364 365 366 <header class="entry-header"> 367 368 <span class="screen-reader-text">I think we may soon see some polls with the Conservatives in the lead</span> 369 370 <h2 class="entry-title"> 371 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/" rel="bookmark">I think we may soon see some polls with the Conservatives in the lead</a> 372 </h2> 373 374 <div class="entry-meta"> 375 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/" title="22:15" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T22:15:23+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 376<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/#comments" class="comments-link" >414 Comments</a></h5> 377 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 378 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 379 380 <div class="entry-summary"> 381 <p>This poll from More in Common is interesting, I would caveat it with other pollsters in the past week who have Reform 5%/6% ahead of the Conservatives, and YouGov have them tied. With Nigel Farageâs ratings cratering over the last few months the fall in Reformâs score was inevitable, with some pollsters now prompting for Restore has made this a double whammy for Reform. Andy Burnhamâs honeymoon is ending and Burnham’s political rhetoric meets fiscal and economic reality in the…</p> 382<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/">
382 Read More<span class="screen-reader-text"> Read More</span></a></p> 383 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 384 385 <footer class="entry-footer"> 386 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 387</article><!-- #post-## --> 388 389<article id="post-153461" class="post-content post-153461 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 390 391 392 393 <header class="entry-header"> 394 395 <span class="screen-reader-text">If fuel prices determine how people vote then it will be a bad November for the Republicans</span> 396 397 <h2 class="entry-title"> 398 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/" rel="bookmark">If fuel prices determine how people vote then it will be a bad November for the Republicans</a> 399 </h2> 400 401 <div class="entry-meta"> 402 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/" title="15:40" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T15:40:26+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 403<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/#comments" class="comments-link" >222 Comments</a></h5> 404 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 405 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 406 407 <div class="entry-summary"> 408 <p>I would not be surprised to see where petrol and diesel prices have increased the most the Republicans do the worst in the midterms. TSE</p> 409 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 410 411 <footer class="entry-footer"> 412 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 413</article><!-- #post-## --> 414 415<article id="post-153450" class="post-content post-153450 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 416 417 418 419 <header class="entry-header"> 420 421 <span class="screen-reader-text">Winning here. Lib Dems and constituency betting</span> 422 423 <h2 class="entry-title"> 424 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/" rel="bookmark">Winning here. Lib Dems and constituency betting</a> 425 </h2> 426 427 <div class="entry-meta"> 428 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/" title="07:54" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T07:54:47+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 429<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/#comments" class="comments-link" >355 Comments</a></h5> 430 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 431 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 432 433 <div class="entry-summary"> 434 <p>This polling cracks me up, it might be the epitome of correlation doesnât equal causation or it might be significant however it does merit further investigation. It should be remembered that some people are weirdly snobbish about supermarkets, I love Sainsbury’s as they keep the riff-raff out of my local Waitrose, so there is the potential for existing perceptions being reinforced. Thanks to Robert’s hard work he’s managed to produce a lot of information looking at the shops mentioned in…</p> 435<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/">
435 Read More<span class="screen-reader-text"> Read More</span></a></p> 436 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 437 438 <footer class="entry-footer"> 439 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 440</article><!-- #post-## --> 441 442<article id="post-153444" class="post-content post-153444 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 443 444 445 446 <header class="entry-header"> 447 448 <span class="screen-reader-text">The New Ease of Fabricating Polls</span> 449 450 <h2 class="entry-title"> 451 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/the-new-ease-of-fabricating-polls/" rel="bookmark">The New Ease of Fabricating Polls</a> 452 </h2> 453 454 <div class="entry-meta"> 455 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/the-new-ease-of-fabricating-polls/" title="22:55" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-21T22:55:29+01:00" pubdate>21/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 456<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/robert/" title="View all posts by robert" rel="author">robert</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/the-new-ease-of-fabricating-polls/#comments" class="comments-link" >570 Comments</a></h5> 457 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 458 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 459 460 <div class="entry-summary"> 461 <p>There are, by my count, 162 organisations that have published a poll of an American race since the start of last year. Between them they have put out 1,138 polls. Here’s the thing: 83 of those 162 published their first poll this year. And 101 of them -nearly two thirds- have published three polls or fewer, ever. So who are they? Well, the established third are exactly who you’d think. Siena, Marquette, Quinnipiac, Emerson. Serious operations (often with universities attached),…</p> 462<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/the-new-ease-of-fabricating-polls/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text"> Read More</span></a></p> 463 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 464 465 <footer class="entry-footer"> 466 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 467</article><!-- #post-## --> 468 469<article id="post-153440" class="post-content post-153440 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 470 471 472 473 <header class="entry-header"> 474 475 <span class="screen-reader-text">Andy Burnham’s ratings take a hit, is the honeymoon wearing off?</span> 476 477 <h2 class="entry-title"> 478 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/andy-burnhams-ratings-take-a-hit-is-the-honeymoon-wearing-off/" rel="bookmark">Andy Burnham’s ratings take a hit, is the honeymoon wearing off?</a> 479 </h2> 480 481 <div class="entry-meta"> 482 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/andy-burnhams-ratings-take-a-hit-is-the-honeymoon-wearing-off/" title="16:04" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-21T16:04:18+01:00" pubdate>21/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 483<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/andy-burnhams-ratings-take-a-hit-is-the-honeymoon-wearing-off/#comments" class="comments-link" >193 Comments</a></h5> 484 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 485 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 486 487 <div class="entry-summary"> 488 <p>Like night following day there’s an inevitability about Prime Ministers becoming unpopular after their honeymoon, what should keep Labour supporters happy is that Burnham is still much more better rated than Nigel Farage. If Burnham’s ratings to continue to fall at this rate then it should end any speculation about an early election. TSE</p> 489 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 490 491 <footer class="entry-footer"> 492 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 493</article><!-- #post-## --> 494 495<article id="post-153435" class="post-content post-153435 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 496 497 498 499 <header class="entry-header"> 500 501 <span class="screen-reader-text">Will the extreme Reform win the next general election? I have my doubts</span> 502 503 <h2 class="entry-title">
504 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/will-the-extreme-reform-win-the-next-general-election-i-have-my-doubts/" rel="bookmark">Will the extreme Reform win the next general election? I have my doubts</a> 505 </h2> 506 507 <div class="entry-meta"> 508 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/will-the-extreme-reform-win-the-next-general-election-i-have-my-doubts/" title="07:59" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-21T07:59:53+01:00" pubdate>21/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 509<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/will-the-extreme-reform-win-the-next-general-election-i-have-my-doubts/#comments" class="comments-link" >320 Comments</a></h5> 510 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 511 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 512 513 <div class="entry-summary"> 514 <p>This latest polling from Ipsos confirms for me that plenty of people will vote tactically against Reform. When nearly six out of ten voters think youâre extreme then that should put a cap on your support. The headline voting intention poll has Labour ahead of Reform by 4%, in September 2025 Reform led Labour by 12%, I will cover the leader ratings in the afternoon thread. TSE</p> 515 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 516 517 <footer class="entry-footer"> 518 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 519</article><!-- #post-## --> 520 521<article id="post-153424" class="post-content post-153424 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 522 523 524 525 <header class="entry-header"> 526 527 <span class="screen-reader-text">Donald Trump continues to break polling records</span> 528 529 <h2 class="entry-title"> 530 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/20/donald-trrump-continues-to-break-polling-records/" rel="bookmark">Donald Trump continues to break polling records</a> 531 </h2> 532 533 <div class="entry-meta"> 534 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/20/donald-trrump-continues-to-break-polling-records/" title="08:37" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-20T08:37:45+01:00" pubdate>20/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 535<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/20/donald-trrump-continues-to-break-polling-records/#comments" class="comments-link" >486 Comments</a></h5> 536 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 537 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 538 539 <div class="entry-summary"> 540 <p>One of the signs that Donald Trump was going to win in 2024 was how poorly Joe Biden/The Dems were handling the cost of living crisis that was engulfing governments across the world, in large because of the invasion of Ukraine. Applying those same principles and using this polling it bodes ill for the Republican Party and explains why the Dems are favourites to take back control of The House of Representatives. The figure that stands out is that he…</p> 541<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/20/donald-trrump-continues-to-break-polling-records/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text"> Read More</span></a></p> 542 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 543 544 <footer class="entry-footer"> 545 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 546</article><!-- #post-## --> 547 <nav class="navigation posts-navigation" role="navigation"> 548 <h2 class="screen-reader-text">Posts navigation</h2> 549 <div class="nav-links"> 550 551 <div class="row"> 552 553 554 <div class="col-md-6 prev-post"> 555 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/page/2/" ><i class="fa fa-angle-double-left"></i>OLDER POSTS</a> </div> 556 557 <div class="col-md-6"><p> </p></div> </div><!-- row --> 558 </div><!-- .nav-links --> 559 </nav><!-- .navigation --> 560 </main><!-- #main --> 561 </div><!-- #primary --> 562 <div id="secondary" class="col-md-3 sidebar widget-area" role="complementary"> 563 <aside id="custom_html-1" class="widget_text widget widget_custom_html"><div class="textwidget custom-html-widget"><div style="background:#f7f9fa;border-left:4px solid #009688;padding:14px 16px 16px"> 564<p style="font-size:13px;line-height:1.55;color:#555;margin:0 0 14px">Every Westminster voting-intention poll back to 2005, and the 2026 US midterms: the generic congressional ballot and the Senate and governor races. 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642<script type="module" src="https://static.cloudflareinsights.com/beacon.min.js/v31edd6df95cf4e85bb4c19e7a9bdbcba1788362987495" integrity="sha512-iIg7k2xntmwu6/uSb5tpc/hySgZc4eoL31yB29W6tJFo2akwjPWcEqnCEdJvGexCL0KEQwVYv5BlowfhVz26hg==" data-cf-beacon='{"version":"2024.11.0","token":"5a4f90ca900649ed8ce3fde82c5c1903","r":1,"spa":2}' crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
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