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334									
335																
336<article id="post-153476"  class="post-content post-153476 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
337
338	
339	
340	<header class="entry-header">
341
342		<span class="screen-reader-text">These MRPs should kibosh any chance of an early general election</span>
343
344					<h2 class="entry-title">
345				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/" rel="bookmark">These MRPs should kibosh any chance of an early general election</a>
346			</h2>
347		
348				<div class="entry-meta">
349			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/" title="13:43" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-24T13:43:45+01:00" pubdate>24/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
350<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/#comments" class="comments-link" >150 Comments</a></h5>
351		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
352			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
353
354	<div class="entry-summary">
355		<p>The most striking thing is how badly Reform will do once tactical voting kicks in. TSE</p>
356	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
357
358	<footer class="entry-footer">
359			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
360</article><!-- #post-## -->
361											
362<article id="post-153466"  class="post-content post-153466 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
363
364	
365	
366	<header class="entry-header">
367
368		<span class="screen-reader-text">I think we may soon see some polls with the Conservatives in the lead</span>
369
370					<h2 class="entry-title">
371				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/" rel="bookmark">I think we may soon see some polls with the Conservatives in the lead</a>
372			</h2>
373		
374				<div class="entry-meta">
375			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/" title="22:15" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T22:15:23+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
376<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/#comments" class="comments-link" >414 Comments</a></h5>
377		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
378			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
379
380	<div class="entry-summary">
381		<p>This poll from More in Common is interesting, I would caveat it with other pollsters in the past week who have Reform 5%/6% ahead of the Conservatives, and YouGov have them tied. With Nigel Farage’s ratings cratering over the last few months the fall in Reform’s score was inevitable, with some pollsters now prompting for Restore has made this a double whammy for Reform. Andy Burnham’s honeymoon is ending and Burnham&#8217;s political rhetoric meets fiscal and economic reality in the&#8230;</p>
382<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/">
382 Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
383	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
384
385	<footer class="entry-footer">
386			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
387</article><!-- #post-## -->
388											
389<article id="post-153461"  class="post-content post-153461 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
390
391	
392	
393	<header class="entry-header">
394
395		<span class="screen-reader-text">If fuel prices determine how people vote then it will be a bad November for the Republicans</span>
396
397					<h2 class="entry-title">
398				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/" rel="bookmark">If fuel prices determine how people vote then it will be a bad November for the Republicans</a>
399			</h2>
400		
401				<div class="entry-meta">
402			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/" title="15:40" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T15:40:26+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
403<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/#comments" class="comments-link" >222 Comments</a></h5>
404		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
405			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
406
407	<div class="entry-summary">
408		<p>I would not be surprised to see where petrol and diesel prices have increased the most the Republicans do the worst in the midterms. TSE</p>
409	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
410
411	<footer class="entry-footer">
412			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
413</article><!-- #post-## -->
414											
415<article id="post-153450"  class="post-content post-153450 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
416
417	
418	
419	<header class="entry-header">
420
421		<span class="screen-reader-text">Winning here. Lib Dems and constituency betting</span>
422
423					<h2 class="entry-title">
424				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/" rel="bookmark">Winning here. Lib Dems and constituency betting</a>
425			</h2>
426		
427				<div class="entry-meta">
428			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/" title="07:54" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T07:54:47+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
429<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/#comments" class="comments-link" >355 Comments</a></h5>
430		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
431			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
432
433	<div class="entry-summary">
434		<p>This polling cracks me up, it might be the epitome of correlation doesn’t equal causation or it might be significant however it does merit further investigation. It should be remembered that some people are weirdly snobbish about supermarkets, I love Sainsbury&#8217;s as they keep the riff-raff out of my local Waitrose, so there is the potential for existing perceptions being reinforced. Thanks to Robert&#8217;s hard work he&#8217;s managed to produce a lot of information looking at the shops mentioned in&#8230;</p>
435<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/">
435 Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
436	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
437
438	<footer class="entry-footer">
439			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
440</article><!-- #post-## -->
441											
442<article id="post-153444"  class="post-content post-153444 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
443
444	
445	
446	<header class="entry-header">
447
448		<span class="screen-reader-text">The New Ease of Fabricating Polls</span>
449
450					<h2 class="entry-title">
451				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/the-new-ease-of-fabricating-polls/" rel="bookmark">The New Ease of Fabricating Polls</a>
452			</h2>
453		
454				<div class="entry-meta">
455			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/the-new-ease-of-fabricating-polls/" title="22:55" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-21T22:55:29+01:00" pubdate>21/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
456<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/robert/" title="View all posts by robert" rel="author">robert</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/the-new-ease-of-fabricating-polls/#comments" class="comments-link" >570 Comments</a></h5>
457		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
458			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
459
460	<div class="entry-summary">
461		<p>There are, by my count, 162 organisations that have published a poll of an American race since the start of last year. Between them they have put out 1,138 polls. Here&#8217;s the thing: 83 of those 162 published their first poll this year. And 101 of them -nearly two thirds- have published three polls or fewer, ever. So who are they? Well, the established third are exactly who you&#8217;d think. Siena, Marquette, Quinnipiac, Emerson. Serious operations (often with universities attached),&#8230;</p>
462<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/the-new-ease-of-fabricating-polls/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
463	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
464
465	<footer class="entry-footer">
466			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
467</article><!-- #post-## -->
468											
469<article id="post-153440"  class="post-content post-153440 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
470
471	
472	
473	<header class="entry-header">
474
475		<span class="screen-reader-text">Andy Burnham&#8217;s ratings take a hit, is the honeymoon wearing off?</span>
476
477					<h2 class="entry-title">
478				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/andy-burnhams-ratings-take-a-hit-is-the-honeymoon-wearing-off/" rel="bookmark">Andy Burnham&#8217;s ratings take a hit, is the honeymoon wearing off?</a>
479			</h2>
480		
481				<div class="entry-meta">
482			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/andy-burnhams-ratings-take-a-hit-is-the-honeymoon-wearing-off/" title="16:04" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-21T16:04:18+01:00" pubdate>21/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
483<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/andy-burnhams-ratings-take-a-hit-is-the-honeymoon-wearing-off/#comments" class="comments-link" >193 Comments</a></h5>
484		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
485			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
486
487	<div class="entry-summary">
488		<p>Like night following day there&#8217;s an inevitability about Prime Ministers becoming unpopular after their honeymoon, what should keep Labour supporters happy is that Burnham is still much more better rated than Nigel Farage. If Burnham&#8217;s ratings to continue to fall at this rate then it should end any speculation about an early election. TSE</p>
489	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
490
491	<footer class="entry-footer">
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494											
495<article id="post-153435"  class="post-content post-153435 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
496
497	
498	
499	<header class="entry-header">
500
501		<span class="screen-reader-text">Will the extreme Reform win the next general election? I have my doubts</span>
502
503					<h2 class="entry-title">
504				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/will-the-extreme-reform-win-the-next-general-election-i-have-my-doubts/" rel="bookmark">Will the extreme Reform win the next general election? I have my doubts</a>
505			</h2>
506		
507				<div class="entry-meta">
508			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/will-the-extreme-reform-win-the-next-general-election-i-have-my-doubts/" title="07:59" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-21T07:59:53+01:00" pubdate>21/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
509<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/21/will-the-extreme-reform-win-the-next-general-election-i-have-my-doubts/#comments" class="comments-link" >320 Comments</a></h5>
510		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
511			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
512
513	<div class="entry-summary">
514		<p>This latest polling from Ipsos confirms for me that plenty of people will vote tactically against Reform. When nearly six out of ten voters think you’re extreme then that should put a cap on your support. The headline voting intention poll has Labour ahead of Reform by 4%, in September 2025 Reform led Labour by 12%, I will cover the leader ratings in the afternoon thread. TSE</p>
515	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
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519</article><!-- #post-## -->
520											
521<article id="post-153424"  class="post-content post-153424 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
522
523	
524	
525	<header class="entry-header">
526
527		<span class="screen-reader-text">Donald Trump continues to break polling records</span>
528
529					<h2 class="entry-title">
530				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/20/donald-trrump-continues-to-break-polling-records/" rel="bookmark">Donald Trump continues to break polling records</a>
531			</h2>
532		
533				<div class="entry-meta">
534			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/20/donald-trrump-continues-to-break-polling-records/" title="08:37" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-20T08:37:45+01:00" pubdate>20/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
535<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/20/donald-trrump-continues-to-break-polling-records/#comments" class="comments-link" >486 Comments</a></h5>
536		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
537			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
538
539	<div class="entry-summary">
540		<p>One of the signs that Donald Trump was going to win in 2024 was how poorly Joe Biden/The Dems were handling the cost of living crisis that was engulfing governments across the world, in large because of the invasion of Ukraine. Applying those same principles and using this polling it bodes ill for the Republican Party and explains why the Dems are favourites to take back control of The House of Representatives. The figure that stands out is that he&#8230;</p>
541<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/20/donald-trrump-continues-to-break-polling-records/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
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564<p style="font-size:13px;line-height:1.55;color:#555;margin:0 0 14px">Every Westminster voting-intention poll back to 2005, and the 2026 US midterms: the generic congressional ballot and the Senate and governor races. Updated as polls are published, with charts and running averages.</p>
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569<p style="font-size:13px;line-height:1.55;color:#555;margin:0 0 14px">Every UK council by-election as it is declared, scored against the last time the seat was fought &mdash; plus the full local record, forthcoming contests and Westminster back to 1832. And the US: every House, Senate and presidential race since 1976, and the new congressional maps for November.</p>
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580<li><a href="https://www.gelliottmorris.com/">Strength In Numbers</a></li>
581<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections">UK by-elections</a></li>
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589<li><a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/">Politico Poll of Polls</a></li>
590<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">UK leader ratings</a></li>
591<li><a href="https://pollingreport.uk/">UK Polling Report</a></li>
592<li><a href="https://yougov.co.uk/trackers">YouGov trackers</a></li>
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596<aside id="linkcat-208" class="widget widget_links"><h4 class="widget-title">UK political blogs</h4>
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599<li><a href="https://conservativehome.com/">ConservativeHome</a></li>
600<li><a href="https://order-order.com/">Guido Fawkes</a></li>
601<li><a href="https://labourlist.org/">LabourList</a></li>
602<li><a href="https://leftfootforward.org/">Left Foot Forward</a></li>
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