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523 <span class="commentcount">( <a href="https://somalianewsroom.com/2024/12/20/around-the-horn-somalia-keeps-pressure-on-jubaland-and-articles-of-the-week/#respond" class="comments_link" >0</a> )</span> 524</p> 525 526 <section class="entry"> 527 528<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/screen-shot-2024-12-20-at-1.18.05-am.png"><img data-attachment-id="9274" data-permalink="https://somalianewsroom.com/2024/12/20/around-the-horn-somalia-keeps-pressure-on-jubaland-and-articles-of-the-week/screen-shot-2024-12-20-at-1-18-05-am/" data-orig-file="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/screen-shot-2024-12-20-at-1.18.05-am.png" data-orig-size="1304,958" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-title="Screen Shot 2024-12-20 at 1.18.05 AM" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-large-file="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/screen-shot-2024-12-20-at-1.18.05-am.png?w=1024" width="1024" height="752" src="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/screen-shot-2024-12-20-at-1.18.05-am.png?w=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-9274" srcset="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/screen-shot-2024-12-20-at-1.18.05-am.png?w=1024 1024w, https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/screen-shot-2024-12-20-at-1.18.05-am.png?w=150 150w, https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/screen-shot-2024-12-20-at-1.18.05-am.png?w=300 300w, https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/screen-shot-2024-12-20-at-1.18.05-am.png?w=768 768w, https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/screen-shot-2024-12-20-at-1.18.05-am.png 1304w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></figure> 529 530 531 532<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The question of the week: <em>how would the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) respond to its <a href="https://somalianewsroom.com/2024/12/16/key-takeaways-from-the-clashes-in-jubaland-and-the-ankara-declaration/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">embarassing defeat</a> to Jubaland forces in Lower Jubba and continue efforts to isolate regional president Ahmed Madobe?</em> The answer: <strong>By augmenting efforts in Gedo region, where there is a weaker concentration of Madobe’s troops and long-running angst against the regional leader.</strong></p> 533 534 535 536<ul class="wp-block-list"> 537<li>The FGS is flying more troops in to Baardheere as part of plans to increase its force projection in the area, <a href="https://shabellemedia.com/dowladda-soomaaliya-oo-la-sheegay-in-ay-ciidamo-geyneyso-baardheere/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according to Shabelle media</a>. It also <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVyiMGS-qQ8" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">appears to be orchestrating</a> pro-FGS protests in Beled Xawo.</li> 538 539 540 541<li>This week, Madobe fired the pro-FGS governor of Gedo, Abdullahi Jama “Shimbir”, and <a href="https://x.com/alqaadi101/status/1869205062775636161" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">replaced him with Mohamed Hussein Isaaq “al Qaadi”</a>…</li> 542 543 544 545<li>…However, the FGS sent the Minister of Security to Garbahaarey <a href="https://x.com/Senfartaag/status/1869866648938664036" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">in a sign that it will continue to provide support to its proxies</a> and <a href="https://www.caasimada.net/df-oo-wafdi-culus-u-dirtay-gedo-iyo-qorshe-ka-dhan-ah-axmed-madoobe-oo-ka-bilowday-garbahaarey/#google_vignette" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">associated militias</a>. </li> 546 547 548 549<li>On December 19, the Somalia Civil Aviation Authority reportedly foiled an attempt by Ethiopia to send a plane full of weapons from Doolow to Madobe’s forces in Kismaayo, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=569041069253425" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according to Radio Kulmiye</a>. Authorities were suspicious of the flight and instructed it to land in Mogadishu first for inspection. The plane ended up <a href="https://www.caasimada.net/xog-df-oo-jubaland-ka-hor-istaagtay-hub-culus-oo-maanta-itoobiya-ka-deji-rabtay-kismaayo/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">returning to Doolow.</a></li> 550</ul> 551 552 553 554<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>What to Watch for: </strong></p> 555 556 557 558<ul class="wp-block-list"> 559<li><strong>Ethiopia returns to business as usual:</strong> Ethiopian troops have the opportunity to continue its alliance with Jubaland and can serve as a counter balance to the FGS in Gedo. Due to the <a href="https://somalianewsroom.com/2024/12/16/key-takeaways-from-the-clashes-in-jubaland-and-the-ankara-declaration/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ankara Agreement</a>, the FGS likely will not have the leverage to threaten the eviction of Ethiopian troops in the short
559-term.</li> 560 561 562 563<li><strong>FGS conducts electoral planning to “chip away” Madobe’s legitimacy:</strong> There is almost no scenario in which Madobe resigns his position or agrees to an FGS-managed direct election. As a result, watch out for the FGS to socialize direct elections or carry out voter registration in areas of Gedo it controls. While high profile political activities in Gedo would contest Madobe’s political authority, they would also escalate tensions in the same way that led to fighting in Raas Kambooni.</li> 564</ul> 565 566 567 568<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" /> 569 570 571 572<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>News in Brief — </strong>Here’s are some other articles of note this week:</p> 573 574 575 576<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/sudan-rsf-saf-uae-intervention/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">â<strong>Sudan is caught in a web of external interference. So why is an international response still lacking?â</strong></a><strong> </strong>Emadeddin Badi dives into the web of alliances in the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, inflamed by interests in gold, port access, and global spheres of influence.</p> 577 578 579 580<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong><a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/ministerial-meeting-on-consideration-of-the-situation-in-somalia-and-the-post-atmis-security-arrangements/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Will Somalia’s next peacekeeping mission have a predictable and sustainable funding mechanism?</a> </strong>Amani Africa expertly explains the six options for funding the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Deploying AUSSOM may be delayed due to the disagreement over funding, which would require an extension of the current ATMIS mission seeking to close by 2025.</p> 581 582 583 584<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>“This is what democracy looks like”</strong>…International Crisis Group has an <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somaliland/somalilands-peaceful-handover-withstands-neighbourhood-strains" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">excellent report on the Somaliland election</a>. And, <a href="https://hornobserver.com/articles/1406/Poll-agency-announces-results-of-1PV-local-elections-in-Somalias-Puntland" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">after holding direct elections</a> in 33 districts since 2021, Puntland continues genuine efforts to decentralize governance to the district level <a href="https://horseedmedia.net/puntland-launches-major-decentralization-initiative-targeting-six-districts/397280" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">through convening all stakeholders at the table</a>. 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726crop=1 150w" sizes="(max-width: 105px) 100vw, 105px" data-attachment-id="9018" data-permalink="https://somalianewsroom.com/2020/05/14/around-the-horn-somalias-coronavirus-cases-now-among-highest-in-east-africa/may-14-ea-coronavirus/" data-orig-file="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may-14-ea-coronavirus.png" data-orig-size="1241,739" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-title="May 14 EA Coronavirus" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-large-file="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may-14-ea-coronavirus.png?w=1024" />Around the Horn: Somalia’s Coronavirus Cases Now Among Highest in East Africa </a> 727 </li> 728 <li class="related-2"> 729 <a class="dark" href="https://somalianewsroom.com/2020/05/04/somalia-gets-ventilators-kenya-mass-tests-in-poor-areas-and-more-east-africa-updates/"> 730<img width="105" height="85" src="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may-4.png?w=105&h=85&crop=1" class="attachment-opti-post-loop size-opti-post-loop wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may-4.png?w=105&h=85&crop=1 105w, https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may-4.png?w=210&h=170&crop=1 210w, https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may-4.png?w=150&h=121&crop=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 105px) 100vw, 105px" data-attachment-id="9000" data-permalink="https://somalianewsroom.com/2020/05/04/somalia-gets-ventilators-kenya-mass-tests-in-poor-areas-and-more-east-africa-updates/may-4/" data-orig-file="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may-4.png" data-orig-size="1200,675" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-title="May 4" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-large-file="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may-4.png?w=1024" />Somalia Gets Ventilators, Kenya Mass Tests in Poor Areas, and More East Africa Updates </a> 731 </li> 732 <li class="related-3"> 733 <a class="dark" href="https://somalianewsroom.com/2020/05/01/unexplained-deaths-in-tanzania-somalias-coronavirus-data-gaffe-and-more-east-africa-updates/"> 734<img width="105" height="85" src="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/daily-coronavirus-updates-1-may-2020.png?w=105&h=85&crop=1" class="attachment-opti-post-loop size-opti-post-loop wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/daily-coronavirus-updates-1-may-2020.png?w=105&h=85&crop=1 105w, https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/daily-coronavirus-updates-1-may-2020.png?w=210&h=170&crop=1 210w, https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/daily-coronavirus-updates-1-may-2020.png?w=150&h=121&crop=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 105px) 100vw, 105px" data-attachment-id="8974" data-permalink="https://somalianewsroom.com/2020/05/01/unexplained-deaths-in-tanzania-somalias-coronavirus-data-gaffe-and-more-east-africa-updates/daily-coronavirus-updates-1-may-2020/" data-orig-file="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/daily-coronavirus-updates-1-may-2020.png" data-orig-size="1200,675" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-title="Daily Coronavirus Updates 1 MAY 2020" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-large-file="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/daily-coronavirus-updates-1-may-2020.png?w=1024" />Unexplained Deaths in Tanzania, Somaliaâs Coronavirus Data Gaffe, and more East Africa Updates </a> 735 </li> 736 <li class="related-4"> 737 <a class="dark" href="https://somalianewsroom.com/2020/04/30/east-africa-coronavirus-roundup-april-30-2020/"> 738<img width="105" height="85" src="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/apr-30-ppt.png?w=105&h=85&crop=1" class="attachment-opti-post-loop size-opti-post-loop wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/apr-30-ppt.png?w=105&h=85&crop=1 105w, https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/apr-30-ppt.png?w=210&h=170&crop=1 210w, https://somalianewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/apr-30-ppt.png?w=150&h=121&
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