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https://somalianewsroom.com/2024/12/20/around-the-horn-somalia-kee…ssure-on-jubaland-and-articles-of-the-week/

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228@keyframes show-content-image{0%{visibility:hidden}99%{visibility:hidden}to{visibility:visible}}@keyframes turn-on-visibility{0%{opacity:0}to{opacity:1}}@keyframes turn-off-visibility{0%{opacity:1;visibility:visible}99%{opacity:0;visibility:visible}to{opacity:0;visibility:hidden}}@keyframes lightbox-zoom-in{0%{transform:translate(calc((-100vw + var(--wp--lightbox-scrollbar-width))/2 + var(--wp--lightbox-initial-left-position)),calc(-50vh + var(--wp--lightbox-initial-top-position))) scale(var(--wp--lightbox-scale))}to{transform:translate(-50%,-50%) scale(1)}}@keyframes lightbox-zoom-out{0%{transform:translate(-50%,-50%) scale(1);visibility:visible}99%{visibility:visible}to{transform:translate(calc((-100vw + var(--wp--lightbox-scrollbar-width))/2 + var(--wp--lightbox-initial-left-position)),calc(-50vh + var(--wp--lightbox-initial-top-position))) scale(var(--wp--lightbox-scale));visibility:hidden}}
229/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v24.0.0/build/styles/block-library/image/style.min.css */
230</style>
231<style id="wp-block-list-inline-css">
232ol,ul{box-sizing:border-box}:root :where(.wp-block-list.has-background){padding:var(--wp--style--block-background-padding,1.25em 2.375em)}
233/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v24.0.0/build/styles/block-library/list/style.min.css */
234</style>
235<style id="wp-block-paragraph-inline-css">
236.is-small-text{font-size:.875em}.is-regular-text{font-size:1em}.is-large-text{font-size:2.25em}.is-larger-text{font-size:3em}.has-drop-cap:not(:focus):first-letter{float:left;font-size:8.4em;font-style:normal;font-weight:100;line-height:.68;margin:.05em .1em 0 0;text-transform:uppercase}body.rtl .has-drop-cap:not(:focus):first-letter{float:none;margin-left:.1em}p.has-drop-cap.has-background{overflow:hidden}:root :where(p.has-background){padding:var(--wp--style--block-background-padding,1.25em 2.375em)}:where(p.has-text-color:not(.has-link-color)) a{color:inherit}p.has-text-align-left[style*="writing-mode:vertical-lr"],p.has-text-align-right[style*="writing-mode:vertical-rl"]{rotate:180deg}
237/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v24.0.0/build/styles/block-library/paragraph/style.min.css */
238</style>
239<style id="wp-block-library-inline-css-extra">
240.has-text-align-justify {
241	text-align:justify;
242}
243.has-text-align-justify{text-align:justify;}
244/*# sourceURL=wp-block-library-inline-css */
245</style>
246
247<style id="classic-theme-styles-inline-css">
248.wp-block-button__link{background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;color:#fff;font-size:1.125em;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);text-decoration:none}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff}.wp-block-accordion-heading{margin:0}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle{background-color:inherit!important;color:inherit!important}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:not(:focus-visible){outline:none}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:focus,.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:hover{background-color:inherit!important;border:none;box-shadow:none;color:inherit;padding:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20,1em) 0;text-decoration:none}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:focus-visible{outline:auto;outline-offset:0}.wp-block-tab:not(.has-text-color){color:inherit!important}.wp-block-tab:not(.has-background){background-color:inherit!important}.wp-block-tab:focus,.wp-block-tab:hover{text-decoration:none}.wp-block-tab:focus-visible{outline:auto;outline-offset:0}
249/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v24.0.0/build/styles/block-library/classic.min.css */
250</style>
251
252<style id="coblocks-inline-format-inline-css">
253.uppercase{text-transform:uppercase}
254/*# sourceURL=coblocks-inline-format-inline-css */
255</style>
256<link crossorigin='anonymous' rel='stylesheet' id='all-css-12-1' href='/_static/??-eJx9j90KwjAMhV/INGyKzgvxWbYuzGrTliZz+vZ2TlQQvAvhfOcHpwQ2BqWgmPw4uCBoY+ejvQjWpmpMBeI4eYJMV7PB3om+FSB692SsyAq/jPRETIIpE7uRMSZ1WDRIvdOYYWF/KB7h0yBT+XNqdVZwAVvyxTToP2xy/UAqz6zlBqXbfySVGOi60lUEXo1hGTBzRz5U26Zq1nW9350fWIhvqA==&cssminify=yes' type='text/css' media='all' />
257<style id="global-styles-inline-css">
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517<p class="breadcrumbs postmetadata"><a href="https://somalianewsroom.com" class="breadcrumbLevel_1">Home</a> <b>&rsaquo;</b> <a href="https://somalianewsroom.com/category/around-the-horn/" class="breadcrumbLevel_2">Around the Horn</a> <b>&rsaquo;</b> <strong class="breadcrumbLevel_3">Around the Horn: Somalia Keeps Pressure on Jubaland and Articles of the&nbsp;Week</strong></p><article id="post-9266" class="post-9266 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-around-the-horn tag-africa tag-elections tag-ethiopia tag-jubaland-2 tag-news tag-puntland-2 tag-shabaab tag-somalia tag-somaliland odd">
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520		Around the Horn: Somalia Keeps Pressure on Jubaland and Articles of the&nbsp;Week 	</h1>
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522	<p class="postmetadata">
523<span class="byline">By <span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://somalianewsroom.com/author/somalianews/" title="View all posts by Tres Thomas" rel="author">Tres Thomas</a></span></span> <em>on</em> <a href="https://somalianewsroom.com/2024/12/20/around-the-horn-somalia-keeps-pressure-on-jubaland-and-articles-of-the-week/" title="9:41 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-12-20T09:41:03+03:00">December 20, 2024</time></a>	&bull;
523 <span class="commentcount">( <a href="https://somalianewsroom.com/2024/12/20/around-the-horn-somalia-keeps-pressure-on-jubaland-and-articles-of-the-week/#respond" class="comments_link" >0</a> )</span>
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530
531
532<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The question of the week: <em>how would the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) respond to its <a href="https://somalianewsroom.com/2024/12/16/key-takeaways-from-the-clashes-in-jubaland-and-the-ankara-declaration/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">embarassing defeat</a> to Jubaland forces in Lower Jubba and continue efforts to isolate regional president Ahmed Madobe?</em> The answer: <strong>By augmenting efforts in Gedo region, where there is a weaker concentration of Madobe&#8217;s troops and long-running angst against the regional leader.</strong></p>
533
534
535
536<ul class="wp-block-list">
537<li>The FGS is flying more troops in to Baardheere as part of plans to increase its force projection in the area, <a href="https://shabellemedia.com/dowladda-soomaaliya-oo-la-sheegay-in-ay-ciidamo-geyneyso-baardheere/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according to Shabelle media</a>. It also <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVyiMGS-qQ8" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">appears to be orchestrating</a> pro-FGS protests in Beled Xawo.</li>
538
539
540
541<li>This week, Madobe fired the pro-FGS governor of Gedo, Abdullahi Jama &#8220;Shimbir&#8221;, and <a href="https://x.com/alqaadi101/status/1869205062775636161" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">replaced him with Mohamed Hussein Isaaq &#8220;al Qaadi&#8221;</a>&#8230;</li>
542
543
544
545<li>&#8230;However, the FGS sent the Minister of Security to Garbahaarey <a href="https://x.com/Senfartaag/status/1869866648938664036" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">in a sign that it will continue to provide support to its proxies</a> and <a href="https://www.caasimada.net/df-oo-wafdi-culus-u-dirtay-gedo-iyo-qorshe-ka-dhan-ah-axmed-madoobe-oo-ka-bilowday-garbahaarey/#google_vignette" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">associated militias</a>. </li>
546
547
548
549<li>On December 19, the Somalia Civil Aviation Authority reportedly foiled an attempt by Ethiopia to send a plane full of weapons from Doolow to Madobe&#8217;s forces in Kismaayo, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=569041069253425" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according to Radio Kulmiye</a>. Authorities were suspicious of the flight and instructed it to land in Mogadishu first for inspection. The plane ended up <a href="https://www.caasimada.net/xog-df-oo-jubaland-ka-hor-istaagtay-hub-culus-oo-maanta-itoobiya-ka-deji-rabtay-kismaayo/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">returning to Doolow.</a></li>
550</ul>
551
552
553
554<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>What to Watch for: </strong></p>
555
556
557
558<ul class="wp-block-list">
559<li><strong>Ethiopia returns to business as usual:</strong> Ethiopian troops have the opportunity to continue its alliance with Jubaland and can serve as a counter balance to the FGS in Gedo. Due to the <a href="https://somalianewsroom.com/2024/12/16/key-takeaways-from-the-clashes-in-jubaland-and-the-ankara-declaration/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ankara Agreement</a>, the FGS likely will not have the leverage to threaten the eviction of Ethiopian troops in the short
559-term.</li>
560
561
562
563<li><strong>FGS conducts electoral planning to &#8220;chip away&#8221; Madobe&#8217;s legitimacy:</strong> There is almost no scenario in which Madobe resigns his position or agrees to an FGS-managed direct election. As a result, watch out for the FGS to socialize direct elections or carry out voter registration in areas of Gedo it controls. While high profile political activities in Gedo would contest Madobe&#8217;s political authority, they would also escalate tensions in the same way that led to fighting in Raas Kambooni.</li>
564</ul>
565
566
567
568<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />
569
570
571
572<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>News in Brief &#8212; </strong>Here&#8217;s are some other articles of note this week:</p>
573
574
575
576<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/sudan-rsf-saf-uae-intervention/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“<strong>Sudan is caught in a web of external interference. So why is an international response still lacking?”</strong></a><strong> </strong>Emadeddin Badi dives into the web of alliances in the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, inflamed by interests in gold, port access, and global spheres of influence.</p>
577
578
579
580<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong><a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/ministerial-meeting-on-consideration-of-the-situation-in-somalia-and-the-post-atmis-security-arrangements/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Will Somalia&#8217;s next peacekeeping mission have a predictable and sustainable funding mechanism?</a> </strong>Amani Africa expertly explains the six options for funding the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Deploying AUSSOM may be delayed due to the disagreement over funding, which would require an extension of the current ATMIS mission seeking to close by 2025.</p>
581
582
583
584<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>&#8220;This is what democracy looks like&#8221;</strong>&#8230;International Crisis Group has an <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somaliland/somalilands-peaceful-handover-withstands-neighbourhood-strains" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">excellent report on the Somaliland election</a>. And, <a href="https://hornobserver.com/articles/1406/Poll-agency-announces-results-of-1PV-local-elections-in-Somalias-Puntland" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">after holding direct elections</a> in 33 districts since 2021, Puntland continues genuine efforts to decentralize governance to the district level <a href="https://horseedmedia.net/puntland-launches-major-decentralization-initiative-targeting-six-districts/397280" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">through convening all stakeholders at the table</a>. This shows that the FGS has a blueprint for universal suffrage &#8212; but it has not chosen to implement it.</p>
585
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720
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1064						<div class="jp-carousel-image-meta">
1065							<div class="jp-carousel-title-and-caption">
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1070								<div class="jp-carousel-photo-description"></div>
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1081								<span class="jp-carousel-download-text"></span>
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