1 2<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> 3<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" lang="en"> 4<head> 5 <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" /> 6 <title>Uncategorized | mostlymissiledefense</title> 7 <link rel="profile" href="http://gmpg.org/xfn/11" /> 8 <link rel="pingback" href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/xmlrpc.php" /> 9 <meta name='robots' content='max-image-preview:large' /> 10 11<!-- Async WordPress.com Remote Login -->
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31} 32 33// Watch for messages back from the remote login 34window.addEventListener( "message", function( e ) { 35 if ( e.origin === "https://r-login.wordpress.com" ) { 36 var data = {}; 37 try { 38 data = JSON.parse( e.data ); 39 } catch( e ) { 40 wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup(); 41 return; 42 } 43 44 if ( data.msg === 'LOGIN' ) { 45 // Clean up the login check iframe 46 wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_key" ); 47 48 var id_regex = new RegExp( /^[0-9]+$/ ); 49 var token_regex = new RegExp( /^.*|.*|.*$/ ); 50 if ( 51 token_regex.test( data.token ) 52 && id_regex.test( data.wpcomid ) 53 ) { 54 // We have everything we need to ask for a login 55 var script = document.createElement( "script" ); 56 script.setAttribute( "id", "wpcom_remote_login_validate" ); 57 script.src = '/remote-login.php?wpcom_remote_login=validate' 58 + '&wpcomid=' + data.wpcomid 59 + '&token=' + encodeURIComponent( data.token ) 60 + '&host=' + window.location.protocol 61 + '//' + window.location.hostname 62 + '&postid=1566' 63 + '&is_singular='; 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path=/; max-age=31536000'; 88 89 return; 90 } 91 92 // Safari ITP 93 if ( data.msg === 'REQUEST_ACCESS' ) { 94 console.log( 'request access: safari' ); 95 96 // Check ITP iframe enable/disable knob 97 if ( wpcom_remote_login_extra_auth !== 'safari_itp_iframe' ) { 98 return; 99 } 100 101 // If we are in a "private window" there is no ITP. 102 var private_window = false; 103 try { 104 var opendb = window.openDatabase( null, null, null, null ); 105 } catch( e ) { 106 private_window = true; 107 } 108 109 if ( private_window ) { 110 console.log( 'private window' ); 111 return; 112 } 113 114 var iframe = document.createElement( 'iframe' ); 115 iframe.id = 'wpcom_request_access_iframe'; 116 iframe.setAttribute( 'scrolling', 'no' ); 117 iframe.setAttribute( 'sandbox', 'allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation' ); 118 iframe.src = 'https://r-login.wordpress.com/remote-login.php?wpcom_remote_login=request_access&origin=' + encodeURIComponent( data.origin ) + '&wpcomid=' + encodeURIComponent( data.wpcomid ); 119 120 var css = 'html { -webkit-transition: margin-top 1s; transition: margin-top 1s; } /* 9001 */ html { margin-top: 46px !important; } * html body { margin-top: 46px !important; } @media screen and ( max-width: 660px ) { html { margin-top: 71px !important; } * html body { margin-top: 71px !important; } #wpcom_request_access_iframe { display: block; height: 71px !important; } } #wpcom_request_access_iframe { border: 0px; height: 46px; position: fixed; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; min-width: 100%; z-index: 99999; background: #23282d; } '; 121 122 var style = document.createElement( 'style' ); 123 style.type = 'text/css'; 124 style.id = 'wpcom_request_access_styles'; 125 style.appendChild( document.createTextNode( css ) ); 126 document.body.appendChild( style ); 127 128 document.body.appendChild( iframe ); 129 } 130 131 if ( data.msg === 'DONE' ) { 132 wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup(); 133 } 134 } 135}, false ); 136 137// Inject the remote login iframe after the page has had a chance to load 138// more critical resources 139window.addEventListener( "DOMContentLoaded", function( e ) { 140 var iframe = document.createElement( "iframe" );
141 iframe.style.display = "none"; 142 iframe.setAttribute( "scrolling", "no" ); 143 iframe.setAttribute( "id", "wpcom_remote_login_key" ); 144 iframe.src = "https://r-login.wordpress.com/remote-login.php" 145 + "?wpcom_remote_login=key" 146 + "&origin=aHR0cHM6Ly9tb3N0bHltaXNzaWxlZGVmZW5zZS5jb20%3D" 147 + "&wpcomid=34314017" 148 + "&time=" + Math.floor( Date.now() / 1000 ); 149 document.body.appendChild( iframe ); 150}, false ); 151</script>
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345<td width="91">Designation</td> 346<td width="66">Date 347<p> </p> 348<p>(FY)</p> 349</td> 350<td width="481">Description/Comments</td> 351</tr> 352<tr> 353<td width="91">FTG-11</td> 354<td width="66">2Q 2019</td> 355<td width="481">OT GMD intercept test. Salvo test â 2 interceptors vs 1 target. Successfully completed 2Q 2019</td> 356</tr> 357<tr> 358<td width="91">BVT-03</td> 359<td width="66">1Q 2021</td> 360<td width="481">Flight test of booster with selectable 2/3 stage capability.  Not an intercept test.</td> 361</tr> 362<tr> 363<td width="91">CTV-03</td> 364<td width="66">2Q 2022</td> 365<td width="481">GMD flight test. First flight test of the Redesigned Kill Vehicle (RKV). Not an intercept test.</td> 366</tr> 367<tr> 368<td width="91">FTG-17</td> 369<td width="66">1Q 2023</td> 370<td width="481">DT GMD intercept test. First intercept test of RKV.</td> 371</tr> 372<tr> 373<td width="91">FTG-18</td> 374<td width="66">1Q 2024</td> 375<td width="481">DT/OT GMD intercept test. Second intercept test of RKV.</td> 376</tr> 377<tr> 378<td width="91">FTO-04</td> 379<td width="66">1Q 2025</td> 380<td width="481">Integrated (multiple interceptor types) operational test. The GMD portion may be first test against two simultaneous targets (formerly FTG-13).</td> 381</tr> 382</tbody> 383</table> 384<p>DT = developmental test       OT = operational test</p> 385<p><em>Table 1. Planned GMD flight/intercept tests through 2025.</em></p> 386<p>This schedule for future GMD testing is almost identical to that in last yearâs budget materials, except for a one quarter slippage in BVT-03 and the addition of FTO-04. It shows that from now through FY 2025, MDA has two GMD flight tests and three or four GMD intercept tests planned.</p> 387<p>However, in August 2018 the Redesigned Kill Vehicle (RKV) program was terminated and was replaced with a new program to develop a Next Generation Interceptor (NGI). Thus the three RKV flight Tests in Table 1 will not take place, leaving no GMD flight/intercept tests after BVT-03, currently scheduled for late 2020, until the end of 2024. Under current plans, the first NGI flight test would not take place until 2025-2026.<a href="#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2">[2]</a> Thus there could be a four year gap in GMD flight tests and an almost six year gap in GmD intercept tests. (There is interest, however, in accelerating the NGI interceptor program, which would likely involve scaling back its capabilities.<a href="#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3">[3]</a>)</p> 388<p>MDA could avoid a lengthy gap in GMD intercept testing by conducting tests using its existing Ground Based Interceptors (GBIs, with CE-I, CE-II or CE-II Block I kill vehicles). However, the fact that no such tests are included in the current plans strongly suggests that MDA does not see the need for further tests of its current GBI interceptors.</p> 389<p>Moreover, tests of the current interceptors could draw down the total number of deployed GBIs. There are currently 44 deployed GBI interceptors. Until recently, plans called for increasing this number to 64 by deploying 20 additional GBI interceptors equipped with the new RKV starting in about 2025. The cancellation of the RKV means the increase to 64 interceptors will be significantly delayed, possibly to 2030 or later.</p> 390<p>To avoid drawing down the number of deployed GBI interceptors, MDA planned to buy five additional boosters for flight/interception tests of the RKV. According to MDAâs FY 2021 Budget Estimates Overview: âMDA will complete the acquisition of five boosters to support flight testing which will ensure the number of fielded GBIs does not decrease through the FYDP.â<a href="#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4">[4]</a></p> 391<p>However, at the February 10, 2020 press briefing on the MDA FY 2021 budget, MDA Director for Operations Michelle C. Atkinson indicated that there was no such plan to acquire additional GBI boosters. In responding to a question about the five boosters and whether there were plans to acquire additional GBIs before the Next Generation Interceptor became available, she said: âSo Iâll have to⦠maybe you can share with me afterwards, the five that youâre seeing, because Iâm not aware. We are not procuring an additional five GBIs this year.â<a href="#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5">[5]</a></p> 392<p>Thus MDA may face a tradeoff between a long gap in GMD intercept testing and a reduced number of deployed GBI interceptors. At a time when MDA officials and other missile defense advocates are increasingly expressing concerns about a growing missile threat to the United States, even a small reduction in the number of deployed interceptors may be unacceptable to MDA. At the same time, for several years members of Congress have been urging MDA to accelerate the pace of GMD testing, and this potentially long testing gap could lead Congress to mandate additional tests.</p> 393<p><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1">[1]</a> U.S. Department of Defense, Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 Budget Estimates, Missile Defense Agency, Research, Development , Test & Evaluation, February 2020. Online at: <a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/budget_justification/pdfs/03_RDT_and_E/RDTE_Vol2_MDA_RDTE_PB21_Justification_Book.pdf">https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/budget_justification/pdfs/03_RDT_and_E/RDTE_Vol2_MDA_RDTE_PB21_Justification_Book.pdf</a>.</p> 394<p><a href="#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2">[2]</a> <span style="display:inline !important;float:none;background-color:#ffffff;color:#191e23;cursor:text;font-family:'Noto Serif';font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration:none;text-indent:0;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0;">U.S. Department of Defense, âDepartment of Defense Press Briefing on the Presidentâs Fiscal Year 2021 Defense Budget for the Missile Defense Agency, February 10, 2020. Online at: </span><a href="https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2081326/department-of-defense-press-briefing-on-the-presidents-fiscal-year-2021-defense/">https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2081326/department-of-defense-press-briefing-on-the-presidents-fiscal-year-2021-defense/</a><span style="display:inline !important;float:none;background-color:#ffffff;color:#191e23;cursor:text;font-family:'Noto Serif';font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration:none;text-indent:0;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0;">.</span></p> 395<p><a href="#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3">[3]</a> Jason Sherman, âNORTHCOM Chief Renounces 10-Year NGI Plan, Reveals New Effort to Scale Back Requirements,â <em>Inside Defense SITREP</em>, February 14, 2020.</p> 396<p><a href="#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4">[4]</a> Missile Defense Agency, âBudget Estimates Overview â Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, p. 6. Online at: <a href="https://www.mda.mil/global/documents/pdf/budgetfy21.pdf">https://www.mda.mil/global/documents/pdf/budgetfy21.pdf</a>.</p> 397<p><a href="#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5">[5]</a> <span style="display:inline !important;float:none;background-color:#ffffff;color:#191e23;cursor:text;font-family:'Noto Serif';font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration:none;text-indent:0;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0;">âDepartment of Defense Press Briefing.â</span></p> 398 399 400<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p> 401 </div> 402 <div class="post-meta"> 403 <div class="row"> 404 <div class="alignright"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2020/02/27/gmd-testing-update-february-27-2020/#respond">Leave a comment</a></div> 405
406 <span class="byline-post-date">by <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/author/mostlymissiledefense/" title="View all posts by mostlymissiledefense">mostlymissiledefense</a> on <em>February 27, 2020</em> • </span> 407 408 409 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2020/02/27/gmd-testing-update-february-27-2020/" rel="bookmark">Permalink</a> 410 411 </div> 412 <div class="row">Posted in <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a></div> 413 414 415 </div> 416 <div class="print-view"> 417 <p><em>Posted by mostlymissiledefense on February 27, 2020</em></p> 418 <p>https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2020/02/27/gmd-testing-update-february-27-2020/</p> 419 </div> 420 </div> 421 <!--/post --> 422 423 <div class="sep"></div> 424 425 426 <!-- post --> 427 <div class="post-1562 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized" id="post-1562"> 428 <h1 class="post-title"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2020/02/24/updated-list-of-claims-about-gmd-effectiveness-february-24-2020/" rel="bookmark">Updated List of Claims about GMD Effectiveness (February 24, 2020)</a></h1> <div class="post-text"> 429 <p>This is an updated list (previous version was August 20, 2019) of claims by U.S. government officials about the effectiveness of the U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse (GMD) national missile defense system. It adds five additional claims (#s 60, 61, 62, 63, and 64).</p> 430<p>A developing theme in recent statements, following the cancellation of the Redesigned Kill Vehicle, is that while the GMD system is currently highly effective, it will start to lose effectiveness in the mid to late 2020s, as the threat increases and the current interceptors age. Thus, the argument goes, there is an urgent need to upgrade the system soon.</p> 431<p><strong>(1) September 1, 2000:</strong> <em>â⦠I simply cannot conclude, with the information I have today, that we have enough confidence in the technology and the operational effectiveness of the entire NMD system to move forward to deployment. Therefore, I have decided not to authorize deployment of a national missile defense at this time.â</em> President Bill Clinton, at Georgetown University, September 1, 2000.</p> 432<p><strong>(2) March 18, 2003:</strong> â<em>Effectiveness is in the 90% range.</em>â<a name="_ftnref1" href="#_ftn1">[1]</a> Edward Aldridge, Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics.</p> 433<p><strong>(3) March 23, 2003:</strong> â<em>There are a lot of things that go into [determining] effectiveness. Everybody can be right.</em>â <a name="_ftnref2" href="#_ftn2">[2]</a> MDA Director Ronald Kadish, in response to a question about Aldridgeâs statement.</p> 434<p><strong>(4) July 21, 2005:</strong> <em>âWe have a better than zero chance of intercepting, I believe, an inbound warhead.â That confidence will improve with time.â</em> MDA Director Lt. General Henry Obering.<a name="_ftnref3" href="#_ftn3">[3]</a></p> 435<p><strong>(5) March 14, 2006:</strong> â<em>When the president declares limited defensive operational capability, we are prepared as the shooter, if you will, to execute the mission to defend our country. And Iâm very confident in the efficacy of that system.</em>â<a name="_ftnref4" href="#_ftn4">[4]</a> Admiral Timothy Keating, Commander of U.S. Northern Command.</p> 436<p><strong>(6) June 2006:</strong> â<em>(From) what I have seen and what I know about the system and its capabilities I am very confident.</em>â<a name="_ftnref5" href="#_ftn5">[5]</a> MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.</p> 437<p><strong>(7) July 6, 2006:</strong> â<em>If it headed to the United States, weâve got a missile defense system that will defend our country.</em>â President George W. Bush in response to a question on <em>Larry King Live</em> about North Koreaâs unsuccessful test of a long-range ballistic missile the day before.</p> 438<p><strong>(8) September 1, 2006:</strong> â<em>I would say that if we had to use the system in an operational mode, it would be very capable.</em>â<a name="_ftnref6" href="#_ftn6">[6]</a> MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.</p> 439<p><strong>(9) January 29, 2007:</strong> <em>âWe are Confident The Ballistic Missile Defense System Would Have Operated As Designed Had The Taepo Dong-2 Threatened The U.S.,â</em> MDA Deputy Director Brigadier General Patrick OâReilly.<a name="_ftnref7" href="#_ftn7">[7]</a></p> 440<p><strong>(10) October 2, 2007:</strong> â <em>– does the system work? The answer to that is yes. Is it going to work against more complex threats in the future? We believe it will.</em>
440â MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.<a name="_ftnref8" href="#_ftn8">[8]</a></p> 441<p><strong>(11) November 2, 2008:</strong> â<em>I have very high confidence we could defend the United States against that threat.</em>â<a name="_ftnref9" href="#_ftn9">[9]</a> MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, about one or two missiles launched from North Korea.</p> 442<p><strong>(12) March 27, 2009:</strong> â<em>And Senator, Iâll tell you, if we felt the North Koreans were going to shoot a ballistic missile at us today, I am comfortable that we would have an effective system able to meet that threat</em>.â<a name="_ftnref10" href="#_ftn10">[10]</a> General Victor Renaurt, Commander U.S. Northern Command, U.S. Africa Command and U.S. Transportation Command.</p> 443<p><strong>(13) June 9, 2009:</strong> â<em>I think that the judgement and advice I got was that the 30 silos we have now, or are under construction, are fully adequate to protect us against a North Korean threat for a number of years.</em>â<a name="_ftnref11" href="#_ftn11">[11]</a> And â<em>I have confidence that if North Korea launched a long-range missile in the direction of the United States, that we would have a high probability of being able to defend ourselves against it</em>.â Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates.</p> 444<p><strong>(14) June 16, 2009:</strong> Confidence that a North Korean missile could be shot down is: â<em>ninety percent plus</em>.â<a name="_ftnref12" href="#_ftn12">[12]</a> MDA Director Lt. Gen. Patrick OâReilly.</p> 445<p><strong>(15) June 18, 2009 (approximately):</strong> <em>âIâd believe we have a reasonable chanceâ</em> of intercepting a North Korean missile. Director of Operational Test and Evaluation Charles McQueary, in an interview on his last day in the job.<a name="_ftnref13" href="#_ftn13">[13]</a></p> 446<p><strong>(16) July 28, 2009:</strong> â<em>Well, we have a very proven missile system in the area of missiles coming out of North Korea.</em>â<a name="_ftnref14" href="#_ftn14">[14]</a> MDA Director Lt. Gen. Patrick OâReilly.</p> 447<p><strong>(17) April 21, 2010:</strong> â<em>It is the belief of the — of the leaders of this department that we have the capability to defend the United States against the — against an ICBM threat from a rogue nation such as Iran or North Korea. We are confident in the system we have at this point.</em>â<a name="_ftnref15" href="#_ftn15">[15]</a> Geoff Morrell, Pentagon Press Secretary.</p> 448<p><strong>(18) December 1, 2010:</strong> <em>ââ¦the probability will be well in the high 90s today of the GMD system being able to intercept that today.â</em> MDA Director Patrick OâReilly in response to a question from Representative Trent Franks about countering âone ICBM coming from Tehran to New York.â<a name="_ftnref16" href="#_ftn16">[16]</a></p> 449<p><strong>(19) April 13, 2011:</strong> â<em>The posture we have today is one that has us well-protected against the initial ICBMs that might be deployed by states like North Korea and Iran with — that are few in number, relatively slow and lack sophisticated countermeasures</em>.â<a name="_ftnref17" href="#_ftn17">[17]</a> Bradley Roberts, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy.</p> 450<p><strong>(20) December 12, 2012:</strong> <em>âIâm very confident that American defense capabilities are able, no problem, to block a rocket like this one.â </em> U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, in response to a question from CNN on the capability of U.S missile defenses, December 12, 2012.<a name="_ftnref18" href="#_ftn18">[18]</a></p> 451<p><strong>(21) March 7, 2013:</strong><em> âI can tell you that the United States is fully capable of defending against any North Korean ballistic missile attack. And our recent success in returning to testing of the upgraded version of the so-called GBI, or the CE2 missile, will keep us on a good trajectory to improve our defense capability against limited ballistic missile threats such as those from North Korea. But letâs be clear, we are fully capable of dealing with that threat.â </em> White House Press Secretary Jay Carney, in response to a question at White House Daily Press Briefing, March 7, 2013.<a name="_ftnref19" href="#_ftn19">[19]</a></p> 452<p><strong>(22) March 15, 2013:</strong> <em>âWe have confidence in our system. And we certainly will not go forward with the additional 14 interceptors until we are sure that we have the complete confidence that we will need. But the American people should be assured that our interceptors are effective.â </em> Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, in response to a question at a Pentagon press conference, March 15, 2013.</p> 453<p><strong>(23) April 9, 2013:</strong> â<em>I believe we have a credible ability to defend the homeland, to defend Hawaii, to defend Guam, to defend our forward-deployed forces and defend our allies.â</em> Admiral Samuel Locklear, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command, Senate Armed Services Committee, April 9, 2013 in response to a question about intercepting North Korean missiles.<a name="_ftnref20" href="#_ftn20">[20]</a></p> 454<p><strong>(24) May 9, 2013:</strong> â<em>We do have confidence in the ability of the ballistic missile defense system to defend the United States against a limited attack from both North Korea and Iran today and in the near future.</em>â Lt. General Richard Formica, Commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Forces Strategic Command and Commander of the Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense, in response to a question from Senator Mark Udall about the capability of âour current GMD system to defend all of the United States, including the East Coast, against current and near-term ballistic missile threats from both North Korea and Iran?â<a name="_ftnref21" href="#_ftn21">[21]</a></p> 455<p><strong>(25) May 9, 2013:</strong> â<em>The East Coast is well-protected as the result of — well, it was protected before the additional — and this additional ’14 provides additional protection both for anything from North Korea as well as anything from Iran should that threat develop.</em>â Madelyn Creedon, Assistant Defense Secretary for Global Strategic Affairs, in response to a question from Senator Mark Udall (and referring to the recently announced plan to deploy 14 additional interceptors in Alaska).<a name="_ftnref22" href="#_ftn22">[22]</a></p> 456<p><strong>(26) July 2013:</strong> <em>âI stand by my response in the testimony I provided on May 9.â</em> Lt. General Richard Formica, Commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command, when asked about the effectiveness of the GMD System shortly after failure of FTG-07 on July 5, 2013.<a name="_ftnref23" href="#_ftn23">[23]</a></p> 457<p><strong>(27) July 10, 2013:</strong> <em>â</em><em>But we maintain that we have a robust missile defense system in place to defend the United States and our allies from a range of threats.â âWe have a range of assets that can support American missile defense, and we are confident that we can defend this country from the missile threat.â</em> Pentagon Press Secretary George Little , July 9 2013 (four days after the failed FTG-07 intercept test of the GMD system).<a name="_ftnref24" href="#_ftn24">[24]</a></p> 458<p><strong>(28) Sometime before August 21, 2013:</strong> <em>âOf course youâre protected. Yes, youâre protected. Weâre proud to protect you.â</em> MDA Director Vice Admiral James Syring, in response to the question âAm I protected where I live?â asked by a person sitting next to him on an airplane.<a name="_ftnref25" href="#_ftn25">[25]</a></p> 459<p><strong>(29) March 25, 2014:</strong> Regarding the GMD system: â<em>We have confidence in the current capability. Do we need to do more? Do we need to continue to do the necessary testing? Yes. But we have confidence in the operational employment, the rules of engagement that we would use that would address maybe some reliability or some uncertainty associated with the system.â</em> Lieutenant General David L. Mann, Commanding General U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Strategic Forces Command and Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense.<a name="_ftnref26" href="#_ftn26">[26]</a></p> 460<p><strong>(30) March 25, 2014:</strong> <em>âAs a policy official who is often briefed by those who develop and operate the system, I am confident that the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system can defend the United States against a limited intercontinental ballistic missile attack.â</em> Elaine M. Bunn, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy.<a name="_ftnref27" href="#_ftn27">[27]</a></p> 461<p><strong>(31) March 19, 2015:</strong> Regarding the GMD system: <em>âWe have high confidence in the ability of this system to defeat an ICBM strike against the United States from an enemy with limited ICBM capabilities.â</em> Admiral Bill Gortney, Commander North American Aerospace Command and U.S. Northern Command.<a name="_ftnref28" href="#_ftn28">[28]</a></p> 462<p><strong>(32) March 25, 2015</strong>: Regarding the GMD system: “<em>As the Secretary of Defense and various Combatant Commanders have previously testified, the Warfighter remains confident in our ability to protect the Nation against a limited intercontinental ballistic missile attack, even in the face of the changing fiscal environment.â</em> Lieutenant General David L. Mann, Commanding General U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Strategic Forces Command and Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense.<a name="_ftnref29" href="#_ftn29">[29]</a></p> 463<p><strong>(33) October 7, 2015</strong>: Speaking about the North Korean ICBM threat to the U.S. homeland: <em>âWeâre ready for him, and weâre ready 24 hours a day if he should be dumb enough to shoot something at us.â</em> Admiral Bill Gortney, Commander North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, at an Atlantic Council event, October 7, 2015.<a name="_ftnref30" href="#_ftn30">[30]</a></p> 464<p><strong>(34) April 13, 2016:</strong> In response to a question about missile defense coverage of Hawaii: <em>âThe people of Hawaii are protected today from the North Korean threat.â </em>
464MDA Director Vice Admiral James D. Syring.<a name="_ftnref31" href="#_ftn31">[31]</a></p> 465<p><strong>(35) April 13, 2016</strong>: <em>âThe U.S. homeland is currently protected against potential ICBM attacks from States like North Korea and Iran if it was to develop an ICBM in the future.â</em> Brian P. McKeon, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.<a name="_ftnref32" href="#_ftn32">[32]</a></p> 466<p><strong>(36) April 14, 2016</strong>: In response to a question about the GMD systemâs coverage of Hawaii: <em>âWeâre prepared to engage and protect Hawaii, Alaska and the rest of the states with the existing system and have high confidence in its success.â</em> Admiral Bill Gortney, Commander North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command.<a name="_ftnref33" href="#_ftn33">[33]</a></p> 467<p><strong>(37) December 2016:</strong> <em>âPrevious assessments of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system remain unchanged. GMD has demonstrated a limited capability to defend the U.S. Homeland from small numbers of simple intermediate-range or Intercontinental ballistic missile threats launched from North Korea or Iran. DOT&E cannot quantitatively assess GMD performance due to lack of ground tests supported by accredited modeling and simulation (M&S).â<a name="_ftnref34" href="#_ftn34"><strong>[34]</strong></a> </em>J. Michael Gilmore, Director, Operational Test and Evaluation<em>. </em></p> 468<p><strong>(38) January 3, 2017:</strong> <em>âWe have a ballistic missile defense, a missile defense umbrella that weâre confident in for the region and to protect the United States homeland and weâll continue to be confident in it, given where we are today in the technology and the skill with which our forces are using the â that technology.â<a name="_ftnref35" href="#_ftn35"><strong>[35]</strong></a></em> Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook, in response to a question.</p> 469<p><strong>(39) January 9, 2017:</strong> â<em>I am very confident in the system and proceduresâ </em>the U.S. Northern Command, which operates the missile shield<em> âwill employ to intercept a North Korean ICBM were they to shoot it towards our territory</em>.â<a name="_ftnref36" href="#_ftn36">[36]</a> MDA Director Vice Admiral James Syring, in response to a question about the DOT&E assessment in (37) above.</p> 470<p><strong>(40) April 6, 2017:</strong> <em>âI am extremely confident of our capability to defend the United States of America and be able to intercept an ICBM should it reach our homelandâ and âToday we have exactly what we need to defend the United States of America against North Korea.â </em><a name="_ftnref37" href="#_ftn37">[37]</a> General Lori Robinson, Commander U.S. Northern Command and Commander, North American Aerospace Command.</p> 471<p><strong>(41) April 11, 2017:</strong> <em>âIâve read articles, you read it in the paper, âOh itâs only got a 50 percent hit rate.â Iâd take 50 percent.â<a name="_ftnref38" href="#_ftn38"><strong>[38]</strong></a></em> Major General Jeffrey L. Bannister, Commander, Fort Drum, New York (one of three sites under consideration as a possible east coast GMD deployment site).</p> 472<p><strong>(42) April, 2017:</strong> The Pentagon <em>âis confident in our ability to defend the homeland against ballistic missile threats.â â⦠we have made significant improvements over the last several years to ensure the system is able to operate as designed.â<a name="_ftnref39" href="#_ftn39"><strong>[39]</strong></a></em> Chris Johnson, MDA spokesman.</p> 473<p><strong> (43) May 30, 2017.</strong> <em>This system is vitally important to the defense of our homeland, and this test demonstrates that we have a capable, credible deterrent against a very real threat.</em><a name="_ftnref40" href="#_ftn40">[40]</a> Vice Admiral James Syring, Director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, following a successful test of the U.S. GMD national missile defense system.</p> 474<p><strong>(44) June 2017.</strong> <em>Itâs at least as good as a coin toss.</em> (the chance that any individual interceptor could down a warhead at the time the system was set up in 2004).<a name="_ftnref41" href="#_ftn41">[41]</a> Lt. General (retired) Patrick OâReilly, former Director of the Missile Defense Agency.</p> 475<p><strong>(45) July 22, 2017.</strong> <em>The United States military can defend against a limited North Korea attack on Seoul, Japan and the United States.</em><a name="_ftnref42" href="#_ftn42">[42]</a> General Joe Dunford, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of staff speaking about North Koreaâs missile threat.</p> 476<p><strong>
476(46) July 30, 2017</strong>. <em>As the commander responsible for defending the homeland, I want to assure our citizens the USNORTHCOM remains unwavering in our confidence that we can fully defend the United States against this ballistic missile threat.<a name="_ftnref43" href="#_ftn43"><strong>[43]</strong></a></em> General Lori Robinson, Commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, speaking about the North Korean ballistic missile threat.</p> 477<p><strong>(47) August 2017.</strong> <em>Yes, we believe that the currently deployed ballistic missile defense system can meet todayâs threat and weâve demonstrated that capability through testing.</em><a name="_ftnref44" href="#_ftn44">[44]</a> Lt. General Samuel Greaves, Director of the Missile Defense Agency.</p> 478<p><strong>(48) August 2017.</strong> <em>100 per cent confidence the missile system would work.<a name="_ftnref45" href="#_ftn45"><strong>[45]</strong></a></em> Col. Kevin Kick, Commander of the 100th Missile Defense Brigade (Fort Greely and Vandenberg).</p> 479<p><strong>(49) September 6, 2017.</strong> <em>If your children tonight ask if weâre safe from North Korea, I will tell you we have the strongest defense possible against that threat right now, today.</em><a name="_ftnref46" href="#_ftn46">[46]</a> Rear Admiral Jon Hill, Deputy Director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.</p> 480<p><strong>(50) September 2017.</strong> <em>Very confident</em> in the United Statesâ ability to protect all 50 states.<a name="_ftnref47" href="#_ftn47">[47]</a> General John Hyten, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command.</p> 481<p><strong>(51) October 11, 2017.</strong> <em>We have missiles that can knock out a missile in the air 97 percent of the time, and if you send two of them, itâs going to get knocked down.<a name="_ftnref48" href="#_ftn48"><strong>[48]</strong></a></em> U.S. President Donald Trump discussing the North Korean ICBM threat in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, October 11, 2017.</p> 482<p><strong>(52) February 15, 2018.</strong> <em>I am 100 percent confident in my ability to defend the United States of America.</em> General Lori Robinson, Commander of U.S. Northern Command in response to the question âSo to be clear, do you have confidence in the ability of the GMD system to defend the United States from a North Korean ballistic missile attack?â asked by Senator Deb Fischer.<a name="_ftnref49" href="#_ftn49">[49]</a></p> 483<p><strong>(53) March 22, 2018.</strong> <em>So I believe we are perfectly positioned to defense against todayâs threat.</em> Missile Defense Agency Director Lt. General Samuel Greaves in response to a question about the North Korean missile threat asked by Senator Deb Fischer.<a name="_ftnref50" href="#_ftn50">[50]</a></p> 484<p><strong>(54) April 17, 2018.</strong> <em>Senator she has. And I would say with high confidence that I believe that the ground-based midcourse defense system in place today has the ability to defend against a North Korea ballistic missile strike.</em> General Terrence OâShaughnessy, at the hearing for his nomination to be the next Commander of the U.S. Northern Command when asked by Senator James Inhofe if he had been convinced by the statement by the current Northern Command Commander General Lori Robinson that the GMD system would be 100% effective (see February 15, 2018 quote).<a name="_ftnref51" href="#_ftn51">[51]</a></p> 485<p><strong>(55) January 17, 2019.</strong> <em>The United States is protected against a limited ICBM as a result of investments made in the ground-based mid-course defense (GMD) system, the employment of which is planned and executed by U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). The GMD system is designed to defnd against a limited ICBM attack from rogue states such as North Kores (see Figure 20), and potentially IRAN, but in the event of conflict, it would be used to defend, to the extent feasible, against a ballistic missile attack on the U.S. homeland from any source<a name="_ftnref52" href="#_ftn52"><strong>[52]</strong></a>.</em> Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2019 Missile Defense Review, January, 2019, p. 41.</p> 486<p><strong>(56) April 12, 2019.</strong> <em>To me, itâs very simple. If a rogue nation or other entity shoots an ICBM, inter-continental ballistic missile, at us, we intercept it<a name="_ftnref53" href="#_ftn53"><strong>[53]</strong></a>. </em> Major Jason Brewer, chief of missile defense operations with the Colorado Army National Guardâs 100<sup>th</sup> missile defense brigade (which operates the U.S. GMD national missile defense system).</p> 487<p><strong>(57) July 19, 2019.</strong> <em>Well Iâd say first off, we are in a very good place. I can â I can very confidently say right now we have the ability to defend against the ballistic missile threat, for example, that we face from North Korea, as an example. That is an incredibly important capability to maintain and to continue to advance going forward.<a name="_ftnref54" href="#_ftn54"><strong>[54]</strong></a></em> General Terrence OâShaughnessy, Commander U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command, in response to a question about where he thought we should be headed on ballistic missile defense.</p> 488<p><strong>(58) August 13, 2019.</strong> <em>I have a great deal of confidence in the technical capabilities of the system. Now if we want more rounds we areâyou know as I like to say with all the systems you get to the point where you canât buy the parts anymore you have parts obsolescence issues. So if we want more rounds, we are going to have to have a redesign kill vehicle, and we are pursuing that. But the system we have in the ground today isâis obviously quite capable<a name="_ftnref55" href="#_ftn55"><strong>[55]</strong></a>. </em>Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering in response to a question about his confidence in the GMD national missile defense system during a presentation at the Hudson Institute.</p> 489<p><strong>(59) August 13, 2019.</strong> <em>We know how to do it with existing technology. It would require buying system that we donât have today; it would require buying more of some of the systems we do have. So it becomes aâit becomes a budgetary priority. Youâyou would be spending money on missile defense systems that we today are spending another things so that is a budget priority discussion and it is a deterrence policy which I donât engage, but it is not a technical issue. We know how to do it<a name="_ftnref56" href="#_ftn56"><strong>[56]</strong></a>. </em>Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering in response to a question about whether the policy not to deploy a robust homeland defense against Russia and China was due to technical problems to policy decisions.</p> 490<p><strong>(60) October 16, 2019.</strong> <em>I have no concerns right now. I am confident in the capability we have right now.</em> Lt. General James Dickinson, commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command, about the U.S. Ground Based Midcourse national missile defense system, following the decision to cancel the Redesigned Kill Vehicle.<a name="_ftnref57" href="#_ftn57">[57]</a></p> 491<p><strong>(61) January 17, 2020.</strong> <em>They are. I have â I have 100 percent confidence. Literally â I donât say 100 percent very often. I have 100 percent confidence in those capabilities against North Korea.</em> General John E. Hyten, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in response to the question âDo you think current missile defense systems of the United States are capable of protecting the United States from North Koreans â North Koreaâs new missiles?â<a name="_ftnref58" href="#_ftn58">[58]</a></p> 492<p><strong>(62) January 28, 2020.</strong> <em>
492According to NORTHCOM, while we can be confident in our current GMD posture to counter a North Korean threat for the next five or six years, at the rate North Korea is developing their capabilities, we must begin assuming increased risk around 2025 and beyond.</em> Representative Doug Lamborn at a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee.<a name="_ftnref59" href="#_ftn59">[59]</a></p> 493<p><strong>(63) January 28, 2020.</strong> <em>I do share that assessment with NORTHCOM.</em> John Rood, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, at the same House Armed Services Committee hearing.<a name="_ftnref60" href="#_ftn60">[60]</a></p> 494<p><strong>(64) February 10, 2020.</strong> <em>So if you have an existing fleet [of GBI interceptors]like we have today that weâre very confident in, it handles the current threat, we can defend Hawaii, we can defend the continental United States against the threats that — where they stand today. We know theyâre going to evolve. So we know that sometime in the mid to late â20s, youâll start to see a fall-off in the ability of that missile to take on those threats, Youâll start to see reliability issues, right? Just kind of normal for any weapons system thatâs deployed for that long. </em>Missile Defense Agency Director Vice Admiral Jon A. Hill at a press briefing on the FY 2021 MDA Budget.<a name="_ftnref61" href="#_ftn61">[61]</a></p> 495<p>And Some Quotes on Defending Guam (also see #23):</p> 496<p><strong>(61) April 2017.</strong> <em>The chances of any missile or missiles getting though in my calculation is .000001 â thatâs five zeros â percent.<a name="_ftnref62" href="#_ftn62"><strong>[62]</strong></a></em> George Charfauros, Guamâs homeland security advisor.</p> 497<p><strong>(62) August 12, 2017.</strong> <em>We are with you 1000 percent</em>, <em>you are safe</em>. U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call to Guam Governor Eddie Calvo.<a name="_ftnref63" href="#_ftn63">[63]</a></p> 498<p><strong>(63) August 12, 2017.</strong> <em>We are all over thisâ¦the wonderful island of Guam is very well protected</em>, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly in a phone call to Guam Governor Eddie Calvo.<a name="_ftnref64" href="#_ftn64">[64]</a></p> 499<p><strong>(64) August 14, 2017.</strong> <em>You know, Guam is well protected.</em> U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis.<a name="_ftnref65" href="#_ftn65">[65]</a> Online at:</p> 500<p><strong>(65) August 2017.</strong> <em>Guam is very heavily protected by missile defense systems at sea and also on the ground. They are very proven missile defense systems</em>.<a name="_ftnref66" href="#_ftn66">[66]</a> Lt. General (retired) Patrick OâReilly, former Director of the Missile Defense Agency.</p> 501<p><strong>(66) September 2017.</strong> Guam is <em>very well protected</em> against North Korean missile attack.<a name="_ftnref67" href="#_ftn67">[67]</a> General John Hyten, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command.</p> 502<p><a name="_ftn1" href="#_ftnref1">[1]</a> BAYH: Let me withdraw the question and move on. I think you see where I was heading.</p> 503<p>Let me ask you Mr. — Secretary Aldridge, about the effectiveness of the system that’s to be deployed in 2004 and 2005 in protecting against this developing North Korean threat — the 10 land-based missiles proposed for the end of fiscal year 2004 — how effective would they be against the North Korean missile if it were, in fact, launched against our country?</p> 504<p>ALDRIDGE: Well, we think that it would be effective. Probably shouldn’t go into a lot of details of…</p> 505<p>BAYH: Well, how do you define effective — 90 percent success rate — 75 — 50?</p> 506<p>ALDRIDGE: Yes, sir — you would — and you — the way you could achieve these rates is you don’t have to fire just one interceptor per target, you could fire two, as we do in PAC-3.</p> 507<p>BAYH: Of course.</p> 508<p>ALDRIDGE: And so the effectiveness is in the 90 percent range. Of course, we want the effectiveness to be high enough that we never have to use these things. I mean, that’s the ultimate effectiveness is that they’re never used.</p> 509<p>BAYH: There are — there are — there are — there are 10 going online in 2004 — 10 in 2005. The radar is not going to be available — when will that go into place — 2006?</p> 510<p>ALDRIDGE: Well, General Kadish has probably got the specific dates for all of those. Let him…</p> 511<p>KADISH: We’ll have radars online to handle the early warning and usefulness of the system in ’04, when we put the missiles on alert if everything works out all right. We’ll add the sea-based X-band (ph) if it proves out by — the following year — it’
511s currently scheduled by September of ’05.</p> 512<p>BAYH: So, Secretary Aldridge, your testimony is that with the 10 interceptors going in at the end of fiscal year ’04 and the radar that will be online at that time, we would have a 90 percent effectiveness in shooting down a NATO (ph) Dong II?</p> 513<p>ALDRIDGE: Well, it depends on — a lot depends on the continuation of the — of the test and the effective — this precise effectiveness numbers. But I would put — you know, as of today, the projected effectiveness would be in the 90 percent range.<br /> 514Senate Armed Services Committee, March 18, 2003.</p> 515<p><a name="_ftn2" href="#_ftnref2">[2]</a> Randy Barrett. âLawmakers Question Effectiveness of Missile Defense System.â <em>Space News</em>, March 24, 2003, p. 6.</p> 516<p><a name="_ftn3" href="#_ftnref3">[3]</a> Ann Scott Tyson, âU.S. Missile Defense Being Expanded, General Says,â The Washington Post, p. A10, July 22, 2005.</p> 517<p><a name="_ftn4" href="#_ftnref4">[4]</a> Jason Sherman, âExperts Question U.S. Systemâs Ability To Intercept North Korean Missile,â <em>Inside Missile Defense</em>, June 21, 2006.</p> 518<p><a name="_ftn5" href="#_ftnref5">[5]</a> Robert Burns, âMissile Defense Chief Confident in Ability To Hit Missile,â The Associated Press State and Local Wire, June 23, 2006.</p> 519<p><a name="_ftn6" href="#_ftnref6">[6]</a> Pentagon Briefing, September 1, 2006.</p> 520<p><a name="_ftn7" href="#_ftnref7">[7]</a> âMissile Defense Program Overview For The Washington Roundtable On Science And Public Policy,â MDA Briefing Slides, Januaary 29, 2007.</p> 521<p><a name="_ftn8" href="#_ftnref8">[8]</a> âDoD News Briefing with Gen. Renuart and Lt. Gen. Obering from the Pentagon, Arlington, Va.â, October 2, 2007.</p> 522<p><a name="_ftn9" href="#_ftnref9">[9]</a> âObama To Be Told U.S. Missile Defense Capable, General Says,â CNN.com, November 2, 2008.</p> 523<p><a name="_ftn10" href="#_ftnref10">[10]</a> Senate Armed Services Committee, March 17, 2009.</p> 524<p><a name="_ftn11" href="#_ftnref11">[11]</a> âI think that the judgement and advice I got was that the 30 silos we have now, or are under construction, are fully adequate to protect us against a North Korean threat for a number of years.â</p> 525<p>âI was just in Fort Greely last week, and its an immensly capable system.â And one of the things that I think is important to remember is, it is still a developmental system. It has real capabilities, and I have confidence that if North Korea launched a long-range missile in the direction of the United States, that we would have a high probability of being able to defend ourselves against it.â</p> 526<p>Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, Hearing of the Defense Subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee, June 9, 2009.</p> 527<p><a name="_ftn12" href="#_ftnref12">[12]</a> SEN Bayh: Iâve bumped up against my time limits here, but there was one final question. Youâre briefing the President of the United States. He asks you based on — you know, heâs got to take into consideration what youâre doing in terms of facing these threats. He asks you if there is a rogue launch, what are the percentages that weâre going to be able to hit it and bring it down, what would you tell him?</p> 528<p>GEN. OâReilly: Ninety percent plus.</p> 529<p>SEN. Bayh: Ninety percent plus confidence that we could — if thereâs a rogue launch from North Korea, letâs say, we could intercept that target and bring it down?</p> 530<p>Gen. OâReilly: Yes. Sir.</p> 531<p>Hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, June 16, 2009.</p> 532<p><a name="_ftn13" href="#_ftnref13">[13]</a> Viola Gienger, âGates: Take Defense Steps,â The Salt Lake Tribune, June 18, 2009.</p> 533<p><a name="_ftn14" href="#_ftnref14">[14]</a> Gen Oâ Reilly: âWell, we have a very proven missile system in the area of missiles coming out of North Korea. The testing we have done to date, we have a lot of testing still to do against all our capability in all scenarios, but in the scenarios out of North Korea, we have intercepted three times out of Fort Greely, Alaska. The missiles, we actually test them out of Vandenberg, but theyâre up at Fort Greely. And then for Hawaii, we have multiple systems (inaudible). A theater high-altitude-area defense system, its an Army mobile system, and then we have the Navy Aegis system. And we also have theâ¦â Margaret Brennan, âUS Missile Defense Director Patrick OâReilly on Bloomberg TV,â Bloomberg TV, July 28, 2009.</p> 534<p><a name="_ftn15" href="#_ftnref15">[15]</a> âDOD News Briefing with Geoff Morrell from the Pentagon,â News Transcript, U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs), April 21, 2010. Available at: <a href="http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4
534612">http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4612</a>. Morrell is the Pentagon Press Secretary.</p> 535<p><a name="_ftn16" href="#_ftnref16">[16]</a> Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee, December 1, 2010.</p> 536<p><a name="_ftn17" href="#_ftnref17">[17]</a> âNow what does that mean? The posture we have today is one that has us well-protected against the initial ICBMs that might be deployed by states like North Korea and Iran with — that are few in number, relatively slow and lack sophisticated countermeasures. And against this threat, we have the current posture of 30 GBIs and the expected enhancements to come in the defense of the homeland with the future deployment in 2020 time frame of SM-3 2B.â Opening statement of Bradley Roberts, Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Hearing of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, April 13, 2011.</p> 537<p><a name="_ftn18" href="#_ftnref18">[18]</a> Bradley Clapper, âU.S. Hesitant in Condemning North Korean Launch,â The Associated Press, December 13, 2012.</p> 538<p><a name="_ftn19" href="#_ftnref19">[19]</a>The White House, âPress Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney,â March 7, 2013. Available at: <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/03/07/press-briefing-press-secretary-jay-carney-372013">http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/03/07/press-briefing-press-secretary-jay-carney-372013</a></p> 539<p><a name="_ftn20" href="#_ftnref20">[20]</a> SEN. MCCAIN: Do you believe that we have the ability to intercept a missile if the North Koreans launch a missile, as is widely reported they would do in coming days.</p> 540<p>ADM. LOCKLEAR: I believe we have a credible ability to defend the Homeland, to defend Hawaii, to defend Guam, to defend our forward-deployed forces and defend our allies.</p> 541<p>SEN. MCCAIN: Do we have the capability to intercept a missile if the North Koreans launch within the next several days?</p> 542<p>ADM. LOCKLEAR: We do.</p> 543<p><a name="_ftn21" href="#_ftnref21">[21]</a> Hearing of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, May 9, 2013.</p> 544<p><a name="_ftn22" href="#_ftnref22">[22]</a> Hearing of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, May 9, 2013.</p> 545<p><a name="_ftn23" href="#_ftnref23">[23]</a> Jason Sherman, âTop Army General Still Confident ib=n GMD System Despite Intercept Test Failure,â Inside Defense SITREP, July 10, 2013.</p> 546<p><a name="_ftn24" href="#_ftnref24">[24]</a> U.S. Department of Defense, âDepartment of Defense News Briefing with George Little,â News Transcript, July 9, 2013. Available at: <a href="http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=5269">http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=5269</a>.</p> 547<p><a name="_ftn25" href="#_ftnref25">[25]</a> Amy Guckeen Tolson, âMDA Director Gives Update on Missile Defense,â <a href="http://www.theredstonerocket.com/">www.theredstonerocket.com</a>, August 21, 2013.</p> 548<p><a name="_ftn26" href="#_ftnref26">[26]</a> Lieutenant General David L. Mann, prepared statement, Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, March 25, 2014.</p> 549<p><a name="_ftn27" href="#_ftnref27">[27]</a> Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, March 25, 2014.</p> 550<p><a name="_ftn28" href="#_ftnref28">[28]</a> Admiral Bill Gortney, prepared statement for FY 2016 Missile Defense Hearing, Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, March 19, 2015.</p> 551<p><a name="_ftn29" href="#_ftnref29">[29]</a> Lieutenant General David L. Mann, prepared statement, Strategic Forces Subcommittee, Senate Armed Services Committee, March 25, 2015.</p> 552<p><a name="_ftn30" href="#_ftnref30">[30]</a> Andrea Shalal, âU.S. Says Ready to Defend Against North Korean Nuclear Threat,â Reuters, October 7, 2015.</p> 553<p><a name="_ftn31" href="#_ftnref31">[31]</a> Subcommittee on Defense, Senate Appropriations Committee, April 13, 2016. Video available at: <a href="http://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings/hearing-on-the-fy2017-missile-defense-agency-budget-request">http://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings/hearing-on-the-fy2017-missile-defense-agency-budget-request</a>.</p> 554<p><a name="_ftn32" href="#_ftnref32">[32]</a> Written statement, Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Senate Armed Services Committee, April 13, 2016. Available at: <a href="http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/McKeon_04-13-16.pdf">http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/McKeon_04-13-16.pdf</a>.</p> 555<p><a name="_ftn33" href="#_ftnref33">[33]</a> Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, April 14, 2016. Video available at: <a href="https://armedservices.house.gov/legislation/hearings/missile-defeat-posture-and-strategy-u
555nited-states-fy17-presidents-budget-0">https://armedservices.house.gov/legislation/hearings/missile-defeat-posture-and-strategy-united-states-fy17-presidents-budget-0</a>.</p> 556<p><a name="_ftn34" href="#_ftnref34">[34]</a> Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, FY 2016 Annual Report, âGround-Based Midcourse Defense,â p. 421, December 2016. Online at <a href="http://www.dote.osd.mil/pub/reports/FY2016/pdf/bmds/2016gmd.pdf">http://www.dote.osd.mil/pub/reports/FY2016/pdf/bmds/2016gmd.pdf</a>.</p> 557<p><a name="_ftn35" href="#_ftnref35">[35]</a> U.S. Department of Defense, âDepartment of Defense Press Briefing by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook and Acting Under Secretary of Defense Peter Levine in the Pentagon Briefing Room,â News Transcript, January 3, 2017. Online at <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1040947/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-pentagon-press-secretary-peter-cook-and/">https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1040947/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-pentagon-press-secretary-peter-cook-and/</a>.</p> 558<p><a name="_ftn36" href="#_ftnref36">[36]</a> Anthony Capaccio, âStopping a N. Korean Missile No Sure Thing, U.S. Tester Says,â Bloomberg.com, January 10, 2017. Online at <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-10/stopping-a-n-korean-missile-no-sure-thing-u-s-tester-says-ixr2dcu3">https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-10/stopping-a-n-korean-missile-no-sure-thing-u-s-tester-says-ixr2dcu3</a>.</p> 559<p><a name="_ftn37" href="#_ftnref37">[37]</a> Hearing before the Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, April 6, 2017, in responses to questions. Transcript available at <a href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/17-34_04-06-17.pdf">https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/17-34_04-06-17.pdf</a>.</p> 560<p><a name="_ftn38" href="#_ftnref38">[38]</a> Gordon Block, âFort Drum Commander Voices Support of Potential Missile Site,â <em>Watertown Daily Times</em>, April 14, 2017. Online at <a href="http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/news03/fort-drum-commander-voices-support-of-potential-missile-site-20170414">http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/news03/fort-drum-commander-voices-support-of-potential-missile-site-20170414</a>.</p> 561<p><a name="_ftn39" href="#_ftnref39">[39]</a> Ken Dilanian, âUS May Not Be Able to Shoot Down North Korean Missiles, Say Experts, NBC News April 19, 2017. Online at <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-may-not-be-able-shoot-down-north-korean-n748046">http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-may-not-be-able-shoot-down-north-korean-n748046</a>.</p> 562<p><a name="_ftn40" href="#_ftnref40">[40]</a> “US Military Successfully Shoots Down Simulated ICBM for the First Time amid North Korean Threat,” abcnews.com, May 30, 2017. Online at: <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-31/us-military-shoots-down-simulated-icbm-amid-north-korean-threat/8574612">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-31/us-military-shoots-down-simulated-icbm-amid-north-korean-threat/8574612</a>.</p> 563<p><a name="_ftn41" href="#_ftnref41">[41]</a> Katrina Manson, âCan the United States Defend Itself from a Missile Attack from North Korea?,â Financial Times, June 30, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3e2a5a24-5d41-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b">https://www.ft.com/content/3e2a5a24-5d41-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b</a>.</p> 564<p><a name="_ftn42" href="#_ftnref42">[42]</a> Lee Haye-ah, “US Military Chief Says N. Korea Capable of âLimitedâ Missile Attack,” Yonhap News Agency, July 24, 2017. Online at: <a href="http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/07/24/0401000000AEN20170724000400315.html">http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/07/24/0401000000AEN20170724000400315.html</a>.</p> 565<p><a name="_ftn43" href="#_ftnref43">[43]</a> âGen. Robinson: âWe Can Fully Defend Against Ballistic Missile Threat,ââ Great Falls Tribune, July 30, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/07/31/gen-robinson-we-can-fully-defend-us-against-ballistic-missile-threat/524271001/">https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/07/31/gen-robinson-we-can-fully-defend-us-against-ballistic-missile-threat/524271001/</a>.</p> 566<p><a name="_ftn44" href="#_ftnref44">[44]</a> Bill Gertz, “U.S. and Guam Shielded from North Korean Missiles by High-Tech Defenses,” Freebeacon.com, August 10, 2017. Online at: <a href="http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-guam-shielded-north-korean-missiles-high-tech-defenses/">http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-guam-shielded-north-korean-missiles-high-tech-defenses/</a>.</p> 567<p><a name="_ftn45" href="#_ftnref45">[45]</a> Debra Killalea, “âIncredibly Fastâ: America’s Desperate Last Line of Defence,” <em>Central Telegraph</em> (Australia), September 1, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/incredibly-fast-americas-desperate-last-line-defen/3218864/">https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/incredibly-fast-americas-desperate-last-line-defen/3218864/</a>.</p> 568<p><a name="_ftn46" href="#_ftnref46">[46]</a> Barbara Opall-Rome, “DoD Missile Defense Deputy: US Children Are Safe from North Korean Threat, Defensenews.com, September 6, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/smr/space-missile-defense/2017/09/06/dod-missile-defense-deputy-us-children-are-safe-from-north-korean-threat/">https://www.defensenews.com/smr/space-missile-defense/2017/09/06/dod-missile-defense-deputy-us-children-are-safe-from-north-korean-threat/</a>.</p> 569<p><a name="_ftn47" href="#_ftnref47">[47]</a> Zhenhua Lu, âGuam âVery Well Protectedâ against N. Korean Attack: US Nuclear
569Commander,â <em>Korean Time</em>s, September 21, 2017. Online at: <a href="http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2017/09/672_236806.html">http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2017/09/672_236806.html</a>.</p> 570<p><a name="_ftn48" href="#_ftnref48">[48]</a> Glenn Kessler, âFact Checker: Trumpâs Claim that a U.S. Interceptor Can Knock Out ICBMs â97 Percent of the Time,â <em>The Washington Post</em>, October 13, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/13/trumps-claim-that-u-s-interceptors-can-knock-out-icmbs-97-percent-of-the-time/?utm_term=.b47c136c557f">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/13/trumps-claim-that-u-s-interceptors-can-knock-out-icmbs-97-percent-of-the-time/?utm_term=.b47c136c557f</a>.</p> 571<p><a name="_ftn49" href="#_ftnref49">[49]</a> Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, Hearing on âUnited States Northern Command and United States Southern Command, February 15, 2018. Transcript online at: <a href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/18-16_02-15-18.pdf">https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/18-16_02-15-18.pdf</a>.</p> 572<p><a name="_ftn50" href="#_ftnref50">[50]</a> Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, Hearing on âBallistic Missile Defense Policies and Programs, March 22, 2018. Transcript online at: <a href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/18-31_03-22-18.pdf">https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/18-31_03-22-18.pdf</a>.</p> 573<p><a name="_ftn51" href="#_ftnref51">[51]</a> Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, Hearing on âNominations,â April 17, 2018. Transcript online at: file:///C:/Users/George/Documents/MDDownloads/CongTestimony/2018-April17-SASC_Nominations-transcript.pdf.</p> 574<p><a name="_ftn52" href="#_ftnref52">[52]</a> Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2019 Missile Defense Review, January, 2019, p. 41. Online at: <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jan/17/2002080666/-1/-1/1/2019-MISSILE-DEFENSE-REVIEW.PDF">https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jan/17/2002080666/-1/-1/1/2019-MISSILE-DEFENSE-REVIEW.PDF</a></p> 575<p><a name="_ftn53" href="#_ftnref53">[53]</a> Jon Soucy, âArmy Guard missile brigade executes unique mission,â <a href="http://www.army.mil/">www.army.mil</a>, April 12, 2019. Online at: <a href="https://www.army.mil/article/220185/army_guard_missile_brigade_executes_unique_mission?platform=hootsuite">https://www.army.mil/article/220185/army_guard_missile_brigade_executes_unique_mission?platform=hootsuite</a>.</p> 576<p><a name="_ftn54" href="#_ftnref54">[54]</a> CQ Transcriptions, âCenter for Strategic and International Studies Holds Discussion on Homeland Security Issues,â July 22, 2019.</p> 577<p><a name="_ftn55" href="#_ftnref55">[55]</a> CQ Transcriptions, âHudson Institute Holds Discussion on US Technological Superiority,â August 13, 2019.</p> 578<p><a name="_ftn56" href="#_ftnref56">[56]</a> CQ Transcriptions, âHudson Institute Holds Discussion on US Technological Superiority,â August 13, 2019.</p> 579<p><a name="_ftn57" href="#_ftnref57">[57]</a> Jason Sherman, âArmyâs Top Air Defender Remains Confident in GBI Fleet After RKV Termination,â <em>Inside Defense SITREP</em>, October 23, 2019.</p> 580<p><a name="_ftn58" href="#_ftnref58">[58]</a> Transcript online at: <a href="https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/event/200121_AConversationWithGeneralJohnHyten.pdf?8vMO1PZ_loYtR2V0zWY85Ncqzm845PHY">https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/event/200121_AConversationWithGeneralJohnHyten.pdf?8vMO1PZ_loYtR2V0zWY85Ncqzm845PHY</a>.</p> 581<p><a name="_ftn59" href="#_ftnref59">[59]</a> Jason Sherman, âNORTHCOM: U.S. To Assume âIncreased Riskâ Against North Korean ICBMs in 2025,â<em> Inside Defense SITREP</em>, January 30, 2020.</p> 582<p><a name="_ftn60" href="#_ftnref60">[60]</a> Jason Sherman, âNORTHCOM: U.S. To Assume âIncreased Riskâ Against North Korean ICBMs in 2025,â<em> Inside Defense SITREP</em>, January 30, 2020.</p> 583<p><a name="_ftn61" href="#_ftnref61">[61]</a> U.S. Department of Defense, âDepartment of Defense Press Briefing on the Presidentâs Fiscal Year 2021 Defense Budget for the Missile Defense Agency, February 10, 2020. Online at: <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2081326/department-of-defense-press-briefing-on-the-presidents-fiscal-year-2021-defense/">https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2081326/department-of-defense-press-briefing-on-the-presidents-fiscal-year-2021-defense/</a>.</p> 584<p><a name="_ftn62" href="#_ftnref62">[62]</a> Patrick Goodenough, âGuamâs Homeland Security Advisor: 0.000001% Chance of Missile âGetting Throughâ Defenses,â cnsnews.com, April 15, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/guams-homeland-security-adviser-0000001-chance-missile-getting">https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/guams-homeland-security-adviser-0000001-chance-missile-getting</a>.</p> 585<p><a name="_ftn63" href="#_ftnref63">[63]</a> Guam Governor Eddie Calvo, Facebook post, August 12, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1556954981038431">https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1556954981038431</a>.</p> 586<p><a name="_ftn64" href="#_ftnref64">[64]</a> Guam Governor Eddie Calvo, Facebook post, August 12, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1556954981038431">https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1556954981038431</a>.</p> 587<p><a name="_ftn65" href="#_ftnref65">[65]</a> âPress Gaggle with Secretary Mattisâ News Transcript, U.S. Department of Defense, August 14, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1278359/press-gaggle-with-secretary-mattis/">https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1278359/press-gaggle-with-secretary-mattis/</a>.</p> 588<p><a name="_ftn66" href="#_ftnref66">[66]</a> Zenny Phoung, âMissile Expert: Guam is âHeavily Protected by Missile Defense Systems at Seaâ and âOn the Ground,ââ cnsnews.com, August 11, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/zenny-phuong/missile-expert-guam-heavily-protected-missile-defense-systems-sea-and">https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/zenny-phuong/missile-expert-guam-heavily-protected-missile-defense-systems-sea-and</a> .</p> 589<p><a name="_ftn67" href="#_ftnref67">[67]</a> Zhenhua Lu, âGuam âVery Well Protectedâ against N. Korean Attack: US Nuclear
589Commander,â <em>Korean Time</em>s, September 21, 2017. Online at: <a href="http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2017/09/672_236806.html">http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2017/09/672_236806.html</a>.</p> 590<p>%MCEPASTEBIN%</p> 591 </div> 592 <div class="post-meta"> 593 <div class="row"> 594 <div class="alignright"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2020/02/24/updated-list-of-claims-about-gmd-effectiveness-february-24-2020/#respond">Leave a comment</a></div> 595 596 <span class="byline-post-date">by <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/author/mostlymissiledefense/" title="View all posts by mostlymissiledefense">mostlymissiledefense</a> on <em>February 24, 2020</em> • </span> 597 598 599 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2020/02/24/updated-list-of-claims-about-gmd-effectiveness-february-24-2020/" rel="bookmark">Permalink</a> 600 601 </div> 602 <div class="row">Posted in <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a></div> 603 604 605 </div> 606 <div class="print-view"> 607 <p><em>Posted by mostlymissiledefense on February 24, 2020</em></p> 608 <p>https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2020/02/24/updated-list-of-claims-about-gmd-effectiveness-february-24-2020/</p> 609 </div> 610 </div> 611 <!--/post --> 612 613 <div class="sep"></div> 614 615 616 <!-- post --> 617 <div class="post-1553 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized" id="post-1553"> 618 <h1 class="post-title"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/08/20/updated-list-of-claims-about-gmd-effectiveness-may-31-2018-2/" rel="bookmark">Updated List of Claims about GMD Effectiveness (August 20, 2019)</a></h1> <div class="post-text"> 619 <p>This is an updated list (previous version was May 31, 2018) of claims by U.S. government officials about the effectiveness of the U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse (GMD) national missile defense system. It adds five additional claims (#s 55, 56, 57, 58 and 59).</p> 620<p><strong>(1) September 1, 2000:</strong> <em>â⦠I simply cannot conclude, with the information I have today, that we have enough confidence in the technology and the operational effectiveness of the entire NMD system to move forward to deployment. Therefore, I have decided not to authorize deployment of a national missile defense at this time.â</em> President Bill Clinton, at Georgetown University, September 1, 2000.</p> 621<p><strong>(2) March 18, 2003:</strong> â<em>Effectiveness is in the 90% range.</em>â<a name="_ftnref1" href="#_ftn1">[1]</a> Edward Aldridge, Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics.</p> 622<p><strong>(3) March 23, 2003:</strong> â<em>There are a lot of things that go into [determining] effectiveness. Everybody can be right.</em>â <a name="_ftnref2" href="#_ftn2">[2]</a> MDA Director Ronald Kadish, in response to a question about Aldridgeâs statement.</p> 623<p><strong>(4) July 21, 2005:</strong> <em>âWe have a better than zero chance of intercepting, I believe, an inbound warhead.â That confidence will improve with time.â</em> MDA Director Lt. General Henry Obering.<a name="_ftnref3" href="#_ftn3">[3]</a></p> 624<p><strong>(5) March 14, 2006:</strong> â<em>When the president declares limited defensive operational capability, we are prepared as the shooter, if you will, to execute the mission to defend our country. And Iâm very confident in the efficacy of that system.</em>â<a name="_ftnref4" href="#_ftn4">[4]</a> Admiral Timothy Keating, Commander of U.S. Northern Command.</p> 625<p><strong>(6) June 2006:</strong> â<em>(From) what I have seen and what I know about the system and its capabilities I am very confident.</em>â<a name="_ftnref5" href="#_ftn5">[5]</a> MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.</p> 626<p><strong>(7) July 6, 2006:</strong> â<em>If it headed to the United States, weâve got a missile defense system that will defend our country.</em>â President George W. Bush in response to a question on <em>Larry King Live</em> about North Koreaâs unsuccessful test of a long-range ballistic missile the day before.</p> 627<p><strong>(8) September 1, 2006:</strong> â<em>I would say that if we had to use the system in an operational mode, it would be very capable.</em>â<a name="_ftnref6" href="#_ftn6">[6]</a> MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.</p> 628<p><strong>(9) January 29, 2007:</strong> <em>âWe are Confident The Ballistic Missile Defense System Would Have Operated As Designed Had The Taepo Dong-2 Threatened The U.S.,â</em> MDA Deputy Director Brigadier General Patrick OâReilly.<a name="_ftnref7" href="#_ftn7">[7]</a></p> 629<p><strong>(10) October 2, 2007:</strong> â <em>– does the system work? The answer to that is yes. Is it going to work against more complex threats in the future? We believe it will.</em>â
629 MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.<a name="_ftnref8" href="#_ftn8">[8]</a></p> 630<p><strong>(11) November 2, 2008:</strong> â<em>I have very high confidence we could defend the United States against that threat.</em>â<a name="_ftnref9" href="#_ftn9">[9]</a> MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, about one or two missiles launched from North Korea.</p> 631<p><strong>(12) March 27, 2009:</strong> â<em>And Senator, Iâll tell you, if we felt the North Koreans were going to shoot a ballistic missile at us today, I am comfortable that we would have an effective system able to meet that threat</em>.â<a name="_ftnref10" href="#_ftn10">[10]</a> General Victor Renaurt, Commander U.S. Northern Command, U.S. Africa Command and U.S. Transportation Command.</p> 632<p><strong>(13) June 9, 2009:</strong> â<em>I think that the judgement and advice I got was that the 30 silos we have now, or are under construction, are fully adequate to protect us against a North Korean threat for a number of years.</em>â<a name="_ftnref11" href="#_ftn11">[11]</a> And â<em>I have confidence that if North Korea launched a long-range missile in the direction of the United States, that we would have a high probability of being able to defend ourselves against it</em>.â Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates.</p> 633<p><strong>(14) June 16, 2009:</strong> Confidence that a North Korean missile could be shot down is: â<em>ninety percent plus</em>.â<a name="_ftnref12" href="#_ftn12">[12]</a> MDA Director Lt. Gen. Patrick OâReilly.</p> 634<p><strong>(15) June 18, 2009 (approximately):</strong> <em>âIâd believe we have a reasonable chanceâ</em> of intercepting a North Korean missile. Director of Operational Test and Evaluation Charles McQueary, in an interview on his last day in the job.<a name="_ftnref13" href="#_ftn13">[13]</a></p> 635<p><strong>(16) July 28, 2009:</strong> â<em>Well, we have a very proven missile system in the area of missiles coming out of North Korea.</em>â<a name="_ftnref14" href="#_ftn14">[14]</a> MDA Director Lt. Gen. Patrick OâReilly.</p> 636<p><strong>(17) April 21, 2010:</strong> â<em>It is the belief of the — of the leaders of this department that we have the capability to defend the United States against the — against an ICBM threat from a rogue nation such as Iran or North Korea. We are confident in the system we have at this point.</em>â<a name="_ftnref15" href="#_ftn15">[15]</a> Geoff Morrell, Pentagon Press Secretary.</p> 637<p><strong>(18) December 1, 2010:</strong> <em>ââ¦the probability will be well in the high 90s today of the GMD system being able to intercept that today.â</em> MDA Director Patrick OâReilly in response to a question from Representative Trent Franks about countering âone ICBM coming from Tehran to New York.â<a name="_ftnref16" href="#_ftn16">[16]</a></p> 638<p><strong>(19) April 13, 2011:</strong> â<em>The posture we have today is one that has us well-protected against the initial ICBMs that might be deployed by states like North Korea and Iran with — that are few in number, relatively slow and lack sophisticated countermeasures</em>.â<a name="_ftnref17" href="#_ftn17">[17]</a> Bradley Roberts, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy.</p> 639<p><strong>(20) December 12, 2012:</strong> <em>âIâm very confident that American defense capabilities are able, no problem, to block a rocket like this one.â </em> U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, in response to a question from CNN on the capability of U.S missile defenses, December 12, 2012.<a name="_ftnref18" href="#_ftn18">[18]</a></p> 640<p><strong>(21) March 7, 2013:</strong><em> âI can tell you that the United States is fully capable of defending against any North Korean ballistic missile attack. And our recent success in returning to testing of the upgraded version of the so-called GBI, or the CE2 missile, will keep us on a good trajectory to improve our defense capability against limited ballistic missile threats such as those from North Korea. But letâs be clear, we are fully capable of dealing with that threat.â </em> White House Press Secretary Jay Carney, in response to a question at White House Daily Press Briefing, March 7, 2013.<a name="_ftnref19" href="#_ftn19">[19]</a></p> 641<p><strong>(22) March 15, 2013:</strong> <em>âWe have confidence in our system. And we certainly will not go forward with the additional 14 interceptors until we are sure that we have the complete confidence that we will need. But the American people should be assured that our interceptors are effective.â </em> Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, in response to a question at a Pentagon press conference, March 15, 2013.</p> 642<p><strong>(23) April 9, 2013:</strong> â<em>I believe we have a credible ability to defend the homeland, to defend Hawaii, to defend Guam, to defend our forward-deployed forces and defend our allies.â</em> Admiral Samuel Locklear, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command, Senate Armed Services Committee, April 9, 2013 in response to a question about intercepting North Korean missiles.<a name="_ftnref20" href="#_ftn20">[20]</a></p> 643<p><strong>(24) May 9, 2013:</strong> â<em>We do have confidence in the ability of the ballistic missile defense system to defend the United States against a limited attack from both North Korea and Iran today and in the near future.</em>â Lt. General Richard Formica, Commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Forces Strategic Command and Commander of the Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense, in response to a question from Senator Mark Udall about the capability of âour current GMD system to defend all of the United States, including the East Coast, against current and near-term ballistic missile threats from both North Korea and Iran?â<a name="_ftnref21" href="#_ftn21">[21]</a></p> 644<p><strong>(25) May 9, 2013:</strong> â<em>The East Coast is well-protected as the result of — well, it was protected before the additional — and this additional ’14 provides additional protection both for anything from North Korea as well as anything from Iran should that threat develop.</em>â Madelyn Creedon, Assistant Defense Secretary for Global Strategic Affairs, in response to a question from Senator Mark Udall (and referring to the recently announced plan to deploy 14 additional interceptors in Alaska).<a name="_ftnref22" href="#_ftn22">[22]</a></p> 645<p><strong>(26) July 2013:</strong> <em>âI stand by my response in the testimony I provided on May 9.â</em> Lt. General Richard Formica, Commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command, when asked about the effectiveness of the GMD System shortly after failure of FTG-07 on July 5, 2013.<a name="_ftnref23" href="#_ftn23">[23]</a></p> 646<p><strong>(27) July 10, 2013:</strong> <em>â</em><em>But we maintain that we have a robust missile defense system in place to defend the United States and our allies from a range of threats.â âWe have a range of assets that can support American missile defense, and we are confident that we can defend this country from the missile threat.â</em> Pentagon Press Secretary George Little , July 9 2013 (four days after the failed FTG-07 intercept test of the GMD system).<a name="_ftnref24" href="#_ftn24">[24]</a></p> 647<p><strong>(28) Sometime before August 21, 2013:</strong> <em>âOf course youâre protected. Yes, youâre protected. Weâre proud to protect you.â</em> MDA Director Vice Admiral James Syring, in response to the question âAm I protected where I live?â asked by a person sitting next to him on an airplane.<a name="_ftnref25" href="#_ftn25">[25]</a></p> 648<p><strong>(29) March 25, 2014:</strong> Regarding the GMD system: â<em>We have confidence in the current capability. Do we need to do more? Do we need to continue to do the necessary testing? Yes. But we have confidence in the operational employment, the rules of engagement that we would use that would address maybe some reliability or some uncertainty associated with the system.â</em> Lieutenant General David L. Mann, Commanding General U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Strategic Forces Command and Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense.<a name="_ftnref26" href="#_ftn26">[26]</a></p> 649<p><strong>(30) March 25, 2014:</strong> <em>âAs a policy official who is often briefed by those who develop and operate the system, I am confident that the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system can defend the United States against a limited intercontinental ballistic missile attack.â</em> Elaine M. Bunn, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy.<a name="_ftnref27" href="#_ftn27">[27]</a></p> 650<p><strong>(31) March 19, 2015:</strong> Regarding the GMD system: <em>âWe have high confidence in the ability of this system to defeat an ICBM strike against the United States from an enemy with limited ICBM capabilities.â</em> Admiral Bill Gortney, Commander North American Aerospace Command and U.S. Northern Command.<a name="_ftnref28" href="#_ftn28">[28]</a></p> 651<p><strong>(32) March 25, 2015</strong>: Regarding the GMD system: “<em>As the Secretary of Defense and various Combatant Commanders have previously testified, the Warfighter remains confident in our ability to protect the Nation against a limited intercontinental ballistic missile attack, even in the face of the changing fiscal environment.â</em> Lieutenant General David L. Mann, Commanding General U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Strategic Forces Command and Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense.<a name="_ftnref29" href="#_ftn29">[29]</a></p> 652<p><strong>(33) October 7, 2015</strong>: Speaking about the North Korean ICBM threat to the U.S. homeland: <em>âWeâre ready for him, and weâre ready 24 hours a day if he should be dumb enough to shoot something at us.â</em> Admiral Bill Gortney, Commander North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, at an Atlantic Council event, October 7, 2015.<a name="_ftnref30" href="#_ftn30">[30]</a></p> 653<p><strong>(34) April 13, 2016:</strong> In response to a question about missile defense coverage of Hawaii: <em>âThe people of Hawaii are protected today from the North Korean threat.â </em>
653MDA Director Vice Admiral James D. Syring.<a name="_ftnref31" href="#_ftn31">[31]</a></p> 654<p><strong>(35) April 13, 2016</strong>: <em>âThe U.S. homeland is currently protected against potential ICBM attacks from States like North Korea and Iran if it was to develop an ICBM in the future.â</em> Brian P. McKeon, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.<a name="_ftnref32" href="#_ftn32">[32]</a></p> 655<p><strong>(36) April 14, 2016</strong>: In response to a question about the GMD systemâs coverage of Hawaii: <em>âWeâre prepared to engage and protect Hawaii, Alaska and the rest of the states with the existing system and have high confidence in its success.â</em> Admiral Bill Gortney, Commander North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command.<a name="_ftnref33" href="#_ftn33">[33]</a></p> 656<p><strong>(37) December 2016:</strong> <em>âPrevious assessments of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system remain unchanged. GMD has demonstrated a limited capability to defend the U.S. Homeland from small numbers of simple intermediate-range or Intercontinental ballistic missile threats launched from North Korea or Iran. DOT&E cannot quantitatively assess GMD performance due to lack of ground tests supported by accredited modeling and simulation (M&S).â<a name="_ftnref34" href="#_ftn34"><strong>[34]</strong></a> </em>J. Michael Gilmore, Director, Operational Test and Evaluation<em>. </em></p> 657<p><strong>(38) January 3, 2017:</strong> <em>âWe have a ballistic missile defense, a missile defense umbrella that weâre confident in for the region and to protect the United States homeland and weâll continue to be confident in it, given where we are today in the technology and the skill with which our forces are using the â that technology.â<a name="_ftnref35" href="#_ftn35"><strong>[35]</strong></a></em> Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook, in response to a question.</p> 658<p><strong>(39) January 9, 2017:</strong> â<em>I am very confident in the system and proceduresâ </em>the U.S. Northern Command, which operates the missile shield<em> âwill employ to intercept a North Korean ICBM were they to shoot it towards our territory</em>.â<a name="_ftnref36" href="#_ftn36">[36]</a> MDA Director Vice Admiral James Syring, in response to a question about the DOT&E assessment in (37) above.</p> 659<p><strong>(40) April 6, 2017:</strong> <em>âI am extremely confident of our capability to defend the United States of America and be able to intercept an ICBM should it reach our homelandâ and âToday we have exactly what we need to defend the United States of America against North Korea.â </em><a name="_ftnref37" href="#_ftn37">[37]</a> General Lori Robinson, Commander U.S. Northern Command and Commander, North American Aerospace Command.</p> 660<p><strong>(41) April 11, 2017:</strong> <em>âIâve read articles, you read it in the paper, âOh itâs only got a 50 percent hit rate.â Iâd take 50 percent.â<a name="_ftnref38" href="#_ftn38"><strong>[38]</strong></a></em> Major General Jeffrey L. Bannister, Commander, Fort Drum, New York (one of three sites under consideration as a possible east coast GMD deployment site).</p> 661<p><strong>(42) April, 2017:</strong> The Pentagon <em>âis confident in our ability to defend the homeland against ballistic missile threats.â â⦠we have made significant improvements over the last several years to ensure the system is able to operate as designed.â<a name="_ftnref39" href="#_ftn39"><strong>[39]</strong></a></em> Chris Johnson, MDA spokesman.</p> 662<p><strong> (43) May 30, 2017.</strong> <em>This system is vitally important to the defense of our homeland, and this test demonstrates that we have a capable, credible deterrent against a very real threat.</em><a name="_ftnref40" href="#_ftn40">[40]</a> Vice Admiral James Syring, Director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, following a successful test of the U.S. GMD national missile defense system.</p> 663<p><strong>(44) June 2017.</strong> <em>Itâs at least as good as a coin toss.</em> (the chance that any individual interceptor could down a warhead at the time the system was set up in 2004).<a name="_ftnref41" href="#_ftn41">[41]</a> Lt. General (retired) Patrick OâReilly, former Director of the Missile Defense Agency.</p> 664<p><strong>(45) July 22, 2017.</strong> <em>The United States military can defend against a limited North Korea attack on Seoul, Japan and the United States.</em><a name="_ftnref42" href="#_ftn42">[42]</a> General Joe Dunford, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of staff speaking about North Koreaâs missile threat.</p> 665<p><strong>
665(46) July 30, 2017</strong>. <em>As the commander responsible for defending the homeland, I want to assure our citizens the USNORTHCOM remains unwavering in our confidence that we can fully defend the United States against this ballistic missile threat.<a name="_ftnref43" href="#_ftn43"><strong>[43]</strong></a></em> General Lori Robinson, Commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, speaking about the North Korean ballistic missile threat.</p> 666<p><strong>(47) August 2017.</strong> <em>Yes, we believe that the currently deployed ballistic missile defense system can meet todayâs threat and weâve demonstrated that capability through testing.</em><a name="_ftnref44" href="#_ftn44">[44]</a> Lt. General Samuel Greaves, Director of the Missile Defense Agency.</p> 667<p><strong>(48) August 2017.</strong> <em>100 per cent confidence the missile system would work.<a name="_ftnref45" href="#_ftn45"><strong>[45]</strong></a></em> Col. Kevin Kick, Commander of the 100th Missile Defense Brigade (Fort Greely and Vandenberg).</p> 668<p><strong>(49) September 6, 2017.</strong> <em>If your children tonight ask if weâre safe from North Korea, I will tell you we have the strongest defense possible against that threat right now, today.</em><a name="_ftnref46" href="#_ftn46">[46]</a> Rear Admiral Jon Hill, Deputy Director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.</p> 669<p><strong>(50) September 2017.</strong> <em>Very confident</em> in the United Statesâ ability to protect all 50 states.<a name="_ftnref47" href="#_ftn47">[47]</a> General John Hyten, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command.</p> 670<p><strong>(51) October 11, 2017.</strong> <em>We have missiles that can knock out a missile in the air 97 percent of the time, and if you send two of them, itâs going to get knocked down.<a name="_ftnref48" href="#_ftn48"><strong>[48]</strong></a></em> U.S. President Donald Trump discussing the North Korean ICBM threat in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, October 11, 2017.</p> 671<p><strong>(52) February 15, 2018.</strong> <em>I am 100 percent confident in my ability to defend the United States of America.</em> General Lori Robinson, Commander of U.S. Northern Command in response to the question âSo to be clear, do you have confidence in the ability of the GMD system to defend the United States from a North Korean ballistic missile attack?â asked by Senator Deb Fischer.<a name="_ftnref49" href="#_ftn49">[49]</a></p> 672<p><strong>(53) March 22, 2018.</strong> <em>So I believe we are perfectly positioned to defense against todayâs threat.</em> Missile Defense Agency Director Lt. General Samuel Greaves in response to a question about the North Korean missile threat asked by Senator Deb Fischer.<a name="_ftnref50" href="#_ftn50">[50]</a></p> 673<p><strong>(54) April 17, 2018.</strong> <em>Senator she has. And I would say with high confidence that I believe that the ground-based midcourse defense system in place today has the ability to defend against a North Korea ballistic missile strike.</em> General Terrence OâShaughnessy, at the hearing for his nomination to be the next Commander of the U.S. Northern Command when asked by Senator James Inhofe if he had been convinced by the statement by the current Northern Command Commander General Lori Robinson that the GMD system would be 100% effective (see February 15, 2018 quote).<a name="_ftnref51" href="#_ftn51">[51]</a></p> 674<p><strong>(55) January 17, 2019.</strong> <em>The United States is protected against a limited ICBM as a result of investments made in the ground-based mid-course defense (GMD) system, the employment of which is planned and executed by U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). The GMD system is designed to defend against a limited ICBM attack from rogue states such as North Kores (see Figure 20), and potentially IRAN, but in the event of conflict, it would be used to defend, to the extent feasible, against a ballistic missile attack on the U.S. homeland from any source<a name="_ftnref52" href="#_ftn52"><strong>[52]</strong></a>.</em> Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2019 Missile Defense Review, January, 2019, p. 41.</p> 675<p><strong>(56) April 12, 2019.</strong> <em>To me, itâs very simple. If a rogue nation or other entity shoots an ICBM, inter-continental ballistic missile, at us, we intercept it<a name="_ftnref53" href="#_ftn53"><strong>[53]</strong></a>. </em> Major Jason Brewer, chief of missile defense operations with the Colorado Army National Guardâs 100<sup>th</sup> missile defense brigade (which operates the U.S. GMD national missile defense system).</p> 676<p><strong>(57) July 19, 2019.</strong> <em>Well Iâd say first off, we are in a very good place. I can â I can very confidently say right now we have the ability to defend against the ballistic missile threat, for example, that we face from North Korea, as an example. That is an incredibly important capability to maintain and to continue to advance going forward.<a name="_ftnref54" href="#_ftn54"><strong>[54]</strong></a></em> General Terrence OâShaughnessy, Commander U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command, in response to a question about where he thought we should be headed on ballistic missile defense.</p> 677<p><strong>(58) August 13, 2019.</strong> <em>I have a great deal of confidence in the technical capabilities of the system. Now if we want more rounds we areâyou know as I like to say with all the systems you get to the point where you canât buy the parts anymore you have parts obsolescence issues. So if we want more rounds, we are going to have to have a redesign kill vehicle, and we are pursuing that. But the system we have in the ground today isâis obviously quite capable<a name="_ftnref55" href="#_ftn55"><strong>[55]</strong></a>. </em>Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering in response to a question about his confidence in the GMD national missile defense system during a presentation at the Hudson Institute.</p> 678<p><strong>(59) August 13, 2019.</strong> <em>We know how to do it with existing technology. It would require buying system that we donât have today; it would require buying more of some of the systems we do have. So it becomes aâit becomes a budgetary priority. Youâyou would be spending money on missile defense systems that we today are spending another things so that is a budget priority discussion and it is a deterrence policy which I donât engage, but it is not a technical issue. We know how to do it<a name="_ftnref56" href="#_ftn56"><strong>[56]</strong></a>. </em>Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering in response to a question about whether the policy not to deploy a robust homeland defense against Russia and China was due to technical problems to policy decisions.</p> 679<p>And Some Quotes on Defending Guam (also see #23):</p> 680<p><strong>(60) April 2017.</strong> <em>The chances of any missile or missiles getting though in my calculation is .000001 â thatâs five zeros â percent.<a name="_ftnref57" href="#_ftn57"><strong>[57]</strong></a></em> George Charfauros, Guamâs homeland security advisor.</p> 681<p><strong>(61)August 12, 2017.</strong> <em>We are with you 1000 percent</em>, <em>you are safe</em>. U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call to Guam Governor Eddie Calvo.<a name="_ftnref58" href="#_ftn58">[58]</a></p> 682<p><strong>(62)August 12, 2017.</strong> <em>We are all over thisâ¦the wonderful island of Guam is very well protected</em>, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly in a phone call to Guam Governor Eddie Calvo.<a name="_ftnref59" href="#_ftn59">[59]</a></p> 683<p><strong>(63) August 14, 2017.</strong> <em>You know, Guam is well protected.</em> U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis.<a name="_ftnref60" href="#_ftn60">[60]</a> Online at:</p> 684<p><strong>(64) August 2017.</strong> <em>Guam is very heavily protected by missile defense systems at sea and also on the ground. They are very proven missile defense systems</em>.<a name="_ftnref61" href="#_ftn61">[61]</a> Lt. General (retired) Patrick OâReilly, former Director of the Missile Defense Agency.</p> 685<p><strong>(65) September 2017.</strong> Guam is <em>very well protected</em> against North Korean missile attack.<a name="_ftnref62" href="#_ftn62">[62]</a> General John Hyten, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command.</p> 686<p>——————————————————————————————</p> 687<p><a name="_ftn1" href="#_ftnref1">[1]</a> BAYH: Let me withdraw the question and move on. I think you see where I was heading.</p> 688<p>Let me ask you Mr. — Secretary Aldridge, about the effectiveness of the system that’s to be deployed in 2004 and 2005 in protecting against this developing North Korean threat — the 10 land-based missiles proposed for the end of fiscal year 2004 — how effective would they be against the North Korean missile if it were, in fact, launched against our country?</p> 689<p>ALDRIDGE: Well, we think that it would be effective. Probably shouldn’t go into a lot of details of…</p> 690<p>BAYH: Well, how do you define effective — 90 percent success rate — 75 — 50?</p> 691<p>ALDRIDGE: Yes, sir — you would — and you — the way you could achieve these rates is you don’t have to fire just one interceptor per target, you could fire two, as we do in PAC-3.</p> 692<p>BAYH: Of course.</p> 693<p>ALDRIDGE: And so the effectiveness is in the 90 percent range. Of course, we want the effectiveness to be high enough that we never have to use these things. I mean, that’s the ultimate effectiveness is that they’re never used.</p> 694<p>BAYH: There are — there are — there are — there are 10 going online in 2004 — 10 in 2005. The radar is not going to be available — when will that go into place — 2006?</p> 695<p>ALDRIDGE: Well, General Kadish has probably got the specific dates for all of those. Let him…</p> 696<p>KADISH: We’ll have radars online to handle the early warning and usefulness of the system in ’04, when we put the missiles on alert if everything works out all right. We’ll add the sea-based X-band (ph) if it proves out by — the following year — it’
696s currently scheduled by September of ’05.</p> 697<p>BAYH: So, Secretary Aldridge, your testimony is that with the 10 interceptors going in at the end of fiscal year ’04 and the radar that will be online at that time, we would have a 90 percent effectiveness in shooting down a NATO (ph) Dong II?</p> 698<p>ALDRIDGE: Well, it depends on — a lot depends on the continuation of the — of the test and the effective — this precise effectiveness numbers. But I would put — you know, as of today, the projected effectiveness would be in the 90 percent range.<br /> 699Senate Armed Services Committee, March 18, 2003.</p> 700<p><a name="_ftn2" href="#_ftnref2">[2]</a> Randy Barrett. âLawmakers Question Effectiveness of Missile Defense System.â <em>Space News</em>, March 24, 2003, p. 6.</p> 701<p><a name="_ftn3" href="#_ftnref3">[3]</a> Ann Scott Tyson, âU.S. Missile Defense Being Expanded, General Says,â The Washington Post, p. A10, July 22, 2005.</p> 702<p><a name="_ftn4" href="#_ftnref4">[4]</a> Jason Sherman, âExperts Question U.S. Systemâs Ability To Intercept North Korean Missile,â <em>Inside Missile Defense</em>, June 21, 2006.</p> 703<p><a name="_ftn5" href="#_ftnref5">[5]</a> Robert Burns, âMissile Defense Chief Confident in Ability To Hit Missile,â The Associated Press State and Local Wire, June 23, 2006.</p> 704<p><a name="_ftn6" href="#_ftnref6">[6]</a> Pentagon Briefing, September 1, 2006.</p> 705<p><a name="_ftn7" href="#_ftnref7">[7]</a> âMissile Defense Program Overview For The Washington Roundtable On Science And Public Policy,â MDA Briefing Slides, Januaary 29, 2007.</p> 706<p><a name="_ftn8" href="#_ftnref8">[8]</a> âDoD News Briefing with Gen. Renuart and Lt. Gen. Obering from the Pentagon, Arlington, Va.â, October 2, 2007.</p> 707<p><a name="_ftn9" href="#_ftnref9">[9]</a> âObama To Be Told U.S. Missile Defense Capable, General Says,â CNN.com, November 2, 2008.</p> 708<p><a name="_ftn10" href="#_ftnref10">[10]</a> Senate Armed Services Committee, March 17, 2009.</p> 709<p><a name="_ftn11" href="#_ftnref11">[11]</a> âI think that the judgement and advice I got was that the 30 silos we have now, or are under construction, are fully adequate to protect us against a North Korean threat for a number of years.â</p> 710<p>âI was just in Fort Greely last week, and its an immensly capable system.â And one of the things that I think is important to remember is, it is still a developmental system. It has real capabilities, and I have confidence that if North Korea launched a long-range missile in the direction of the United States, that we would have a high probability of being able to defend ourselves against it.â</p> 711<p>Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, Hearing of the Defense Subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee, June 9, 2009.</p> 712<p><a name="_ftn12" href="#_ftnref12">[12]</a> SEN Bayh: Iâve bumped up against my time limits here, but there was one final question. Youâre briefing the President of the United States. He asks you based on — you know, heâs got to take into consideration what youâre doing in terms of facing these threats. He asks you if there is a rogue launch, what are the percentages that weâre going to be able to hit it and bring it down, what would you tell him?</p> 713<p>GEN. OâReilly: Ninety percent plus.</p> 714<p>SEN. Bayh: Ninety percent plus confidence that we could — if thereâs a rogue launch from North Korea, letâs say, we could intercept that target and bring it down?</p> 715<p>Gen. OâReilly: Yes. Sir.</p> 716<p>Hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, June 16, 2009.</p> 717<p><a name="_ftn13" href="#_ftnref13">[13]</a> Viola Gienger, âGates: Take Defense Steps,â The Salt Lake Tribune, June 18, 2009.</p> 718<p><a name="_ftn14" href="#_ftnref14">[14]</a> Gen Oâ Reilly: âWell, we have a very proven missile system in the area of missiles coming out of North Korea. The testing we have done to date, we have a lot of testing still to do against all our capability in all scenarios, but in the scenarios out of North Korea, we have intercepted three times out of Fort Greely, Alaska. The missiles, we actually test them out of Vandenberg, but theyâre up at Fort Greely. And then for Hawaii, we have multiple systems (inaudible). A theater high-altitude-area defense system, its an Army mobile system, and then we have the Navy Aegis system. And we also have theâ¦â Margaret Brennan, âUS Missile Defense Director Patrick OâReilly on Bloomberg TV,â Bloomberg TV, July 28, 2009.</p> 719<p><a name="_ftn15" href="#_ftnref15">[15]</a> âDOD News Briefing with Geoff Morrell from the Pentagon,â News Transcript, U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs), April 21, 2010. Available at: <a href="http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4
719612">http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4612</a>. Morrell is the Pentagon Press Secretary.</p> 720<p><a name="_ftn16" href="#_ftnref16">[16]</a> Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee, December 1, 2010.</p> 721<p><a name="_ftn17" href="#_ftnref17">[17]</a> âNow what does that mean? The posture we have today is one that has us well-protected against the initial ICBMs that might be deployed by states like North Korea and Iran with — that are few in number, relatively slow and lack sophisticated countermeasures. And against this threat, we have the current posture of 30 GBIs and the expected enhancements to come in the defense of the homeland with the future deployment in 2020 time frame of SM-3 2B.â Opening statement of Bradley Roberts, Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Hearing of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, April 13, 2011.</p> 722<p><a name="_ftn18" href="#_ftnref18">[18]</a> Bradley Clapper, âU.S. Hesitant in Condemning North Korean Launch,â The Associated Press, December 13, 2012.</p> 723<p><a name="_ftn19" href="#_ftnref19">[19]</a>The White House, âPress Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney,â March 7, 2013. Available at: <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/03/07/press-briefing-press-secretary-jay-carney-372013">http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/03/07/press-briefing-press-secretary-jay-carney-372013</a></p> 724<p><a name="_ftn20" href="#_ftnref20">[20]</a> SEN. MCCAIN: Do you believe that we have the ability to intercept a missile if the North Koreans launch a missile, as is widely reported they would do in coming days.</p> 725<p>ADM. LOCKLEAR: I believe we have a credible ability to defend the Homeland, to defend Hawaii, to defend Guam, to defend our forward-deployed forces and defend our allies.</p> 726<p>SEN. MCCAIN: Do we have the capability to intercept a missile if the North Koreans launch within the next several days?</p> 727<p>ADM. LOCKLEAR: We do.</p> 728<p><a name="_ftn21" href="#_ftnref21">[21]</a> Hearing of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, May 9, 2013.</p> 729<p><a name="_ftn22" href="#_ftnref22">[22]</a> Hearing of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, May 9, 2013.</p> 730<p><a name="_ftn23" href="#_ftnref23">[23]</a> Jason Sherman, âTop Army General Still Confident ib=n GMD System Despite Intercept Test Failure,â Inside Defense SITREP, July 10, 2013.</p> 731<p><a name="_ftn24" href="#_ftnref24">[24]</a> U.S. Department of Defense, âDepartment of Defense News Briefing with George Little,â News Transcript, July 9, 2013. Available at: <a href="http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=5269">http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=5269</a>.</p> 732<p><a name="_ftn25" href="#_ftnref25">[25]</a> Amy Guckeen Tolson, âMDA Director Gives Update on Missile Defense,â <a href="http://www.theredstonerocket.com/">www.theredstonerocket.com</a>, August 21, 2013.</p> 733<p><a name="_ftn26" href="#_ftnref26">[26]</a> Lieutenant General David L. Mann, prepared statement, Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, March 25, 2014.</p> 734<p><a name="_ftn27" href="#_ftnref27">[27]</a> Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, March 25, 2014.</p> 735<p><a name="_ftn28" href="#_ftnref28">[28]</a> Admiral Bill Gortney, prepared statement for FY 2016 Missile Defense Hearing, Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, March 19, 2015.</p> 736<p><a name="_ftn29" href="#_ftnref29">[29]</a> Lieutenant General David L. Mann, prepared statement, Strategic Forces Subcommittee, Senate Armed Services Committee, March 25, 2015.</p> 737<p><a name="_ftn30" href="#_ftnref30">[30]</a> Andrea Shalal, âU.S. Says Ready to Defend Against North Korean Nuclear Threat,â Reuters, October 7, 2015.</p> 738<p><a name="_ftn31" href="#_ftnref31">[31]</a> Subcommittee on Defense, Senate Appropriations Committee, April 13, 2016. Video available at: <a href="http://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings/hearing-on-the-fy2017-missile-defense-agency-budget-request">http://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings/hearing-on-the-fy2017-missile-defense-agency-budget-request</a>.</p> 739<p><a name="_ftn32" href="#_ftnref32">[32]</a> Written statement, Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Senate Armed Services Committee, April 13, 2016. Available at: <a href="http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/McKeon_04-13-16.pdf">http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/McKeon_04-13-16.pdf</a>.</p> 740<p><a name="_ftn33" href="#_ftnref33">[33]</a> Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, April 14, 2016. Video available at: <a href="https://armedservices.house.gov/legislation/hearings/missile-defeat-posture-and-strategy-u
740nited-states-fy17-presidents-budget-0">https://armedservices.house.gov/legislation/hearings/missile-defeat-posture-and-strategy-united-states-fy17-presidents-budget-0</a>.</p> 741<p><a name="_ftn34" href="#_ftnref34">[34]</a> Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, FY 2016 Annual Report, âGround-Based Midcourse Defense,â p. 421, December 2016. Online at <a href="http://www.dote.osd.mil/pub/reports/FY2016/pdf/bmds/2016gmd.pdf">http://www.dote.osd.mil/pub/reports/FY2016/pdf/bmds/2016gmd.pdf</a>.</p> 742<p><a name="_ftn35" href="#_ftnref35">[35]</a> U.S. Department of Defense, âDepartment of Defense Press Briefing by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook and Acting Under Secretary of Defense Peter Levine in the Pentagon Briefing Room,â News Transcript, January 3, 2017. Online at <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1040947/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-pentagon-press-secretary-peter-cook-and/">https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1040947/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-pentagon-press-secretary-peter-cook-and/</a><u>.</u></p> 743<p><a name="_ftn36" href="#_ftnref36">[36]</a> Anthony Capaccio, âStopping a N. Korean Missile No Sure Thing, U.S. Tester Says,â Bloomberg.com, January 10, 2017. Online at <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-10/stopping-a-n-korean-missile-no-sure-thing-u-s-tester-says-ixr2dcu3">https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-10/stopping-a-n-korean-missile-no-sure-thing-u-s-tester-says-ixr2dcu3</a>.</p> 744<p><a name="_ftn37" href="#_ftnref37">[37]</a> Hearing before the Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, April 6, 2017, in responses to questions. Transcript available at <a href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/17-34_04-06-17.pdf">https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/17-34_04-06-17.pdf</a>.</p> 745<p><a name="_ftn38" href="#_ftnref38">[38]</a> Gordon Block, âFort Drum Commander Voices Support of Potential Missile Site,â <em>Watertown Daily Times</em>, April 14, 2017. Online at <a href="http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/news03/fort-drum-commander-voices-support-of-potential-missile-site-20170414">http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/news03/fort-drum-commander-voices-support-of-potential-missile-site-20170414</a>.</p> 746<p><a name="_ftn39" href="#_ftnref39">[39]</a> Ken Dilanian, âUS May Not Be Able to Shoot Down North Korean Missiles, Say Experts, NBC News April 19, 2017. Online at <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-may-not-be-able-shoot-down-north-korean-n748046">http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-may-not-be-able-shoot-down-north-korean-n748046</a>.</p> 747<p><a name="_ftn40" href="#_ftnref40">[40]</a> “US Military Successfully Shoots Down Simulated ICBM for the First Time amid North Korean Threat,” abcnews.com, May 30, 2017. Online at: <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-31/us-military-shoots-down-simulated-icbm-amid-north-korean-threat/8574612">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-31/us-military-shoots-down-simulated-icbm-amid-north-korean-threat/8574612</a>.</p> 748<p><a name="_ftn41" href="#_ftnref41">[41]</a> Katrina Manson, âCan the United States Defend Itself from a Missile Attack from North Korea?,â Financial Times, June 30, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3e2a5a24-5d41-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b">https://www.ft.com/content/3e2a5a24-5d41-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b</a>.</p> 749<p><a name="_ftn42" href="#_ftnref42">[42]</a> Lee Haye-ah, “US Military Chief Says N. Korea Capable of âLimitedâ Missile Attack,” Yonhap News Agency, July 24, 2017. Online at: <a href="http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/07/24/0401000000AEN20170724000400315.html">http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/07/24/0401000000AEN20170724000400315.html</a>.</p> 750<p><a name="_ftn43" href="#_ftnref43">[43]</a> âGen. Robinson: âWe Can Fully Defend Against Ballistic Missile Threat,ââ Great Falls Tribune, July 30, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/07/31/gen-robinson-we-can-fully-defend-us-against-ballistic-missile-threat/524271001/">https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/07/31/gen-robinson-we-can-fully-defend-us-against-ballistic-missile-threat/524271001/</a>.</p> 751<p><a name="_ftn44" href="#_ftnref44">[44]</a> Bill Gertz, “U.S. and Guam Shielded from North Korean Missiles by High-Tech Defenses,” Freebeacon.com, August 10, 2017. Online at: <a href="http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-guam-shielded-north-korean-missiles-high-tech-defenses/">http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-guam-shielded-north-korean-missiles-high-tech-defenses/</a>.</p> 752<p><a name="_ftn45" href="#_ftnref45">[45]</a> Debra Killalea, “âIncredibly Fastâ: America’s Desperate Last Line of Defence,” <em>Central Telegraph</em> (Australia), September 1, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/incredibly-fast-americas-desperate-last-line-defen/3218864/">https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/incredibly-fast-americas-desperate-last-line-defen/3218864/</a>.</p> 753<p><a name="_ftn46" href="#_ftnref46">[46]</a> Barbara Opall-Rome, “DoD Missile Defense Deputy: US Children Are Safe from North Korean Threat, Defensenews.com, September 6, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/smr/space-missile-defense/2017/09/06/dod-missile-defense-deputy-us-children-are-safe-from-north-korean-threat/">https://www.defensenews.com/smr/space-missile-defense/2017/09/06/dod-missile-defense-deputy-us-children-are-safe-from-north-korean-threat/</a>.</p> 754<p><a name="_ftn47" href="#_ftnref47">[47]</a> Zhenhua Lu, âGuam âVery Well Protectedâ against N. Korean Attack: US Nuclear
754Commander,â <em>Korean Time</em>s, September 21, 2017. Online at: <a href="http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2017/09/672_236806.html">http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2017/09/672_236806.html</a>.</p> 755<p><a name="_ftn48" href="#_ftnref48">[48]</a> Glenn Kessler, âFact Checker: Trumpâs Claim that a U.S. Interceptor Can Knock Out ICBMs â97 Percent of the Time,â <em>The Washington Post</em>, October 13, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/13/trumps-claim-that-u-s-interceptors-can-knock-out-icmbs-97-percent-of-the-time/?utm_term=.b47c136c557f">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/13/trumps-claim-that-u-s-interceptors-can-knock-out-icmbs-97-percent-of-the-time/?utm_term=.b47c136c557f</a>.</p> 756<p><a name="_ftn49" href="#_ftnref49">[49]</a> Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, Hearing on âUnited States Northern Command and United States Southern Command, February 15, 2018. Transcript online at: <a href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/18-16_02-15-18.pdf">https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/18-16_02-15-18.pdf</a>.</p> 757<p><a name="_ftn50" href="#_ftnref50">[50]</a> Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, Hearing on âBallistic Missile Defense Policies and Programs, March 22, 2018. Transcript online at: <a href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/18-31_03-22-18.pdf">https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/18-31_03-22-18.pdf</a><u>.</u></p> 758<p><a name="_ftn51" href="#_ftnref51">[51]</a> Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, Hearing on âNominations,â April 17, 2018. Transcript online at: file:///C:/Users/George/Documents/MDDownloads/CongTestimony/2018-April17-SASC_Nominations-transcript.pdf<u>. </u></p> 759<p><a name="_ftn52" href="#_ftnref52">[52]</a> Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2019 Missile Defense Review, January, 2019, p. 41. Online at: <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jan/17/2002080666/-1/-1/1/2019-MISSILE-DEFENSE-REVIEW.PDF">https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jan/17/2002080666/-1/-1/1/2019-MISSILE-DEFENSE-REVIEW.PDF</a></p> 760<p><a name="_ftn53" href="#_ftnref53">[53]</a> Jon Soucy, âArmy Guard missile brigade executes unique mission,â <a href="http://www.army.mil/">www.army.mil</a>, April 12, 2019. Online at: <a href="https://www.army.mil/article/220185/army_guard_missile_brigade_executes_unique_mission?platform=hootsuite">https://www.army.mil/article/220185/army_guard_missile_brigade_executes_unique_mission?platform=hootsuite</a>.</p> 761<p><a name="_ftn54" href="#_ftnref54">[54]</a> CQ Transcriptions, âCenter for Strategic and International Studies Holds Discussion on Homeland Security Issues,â July 22, 2019.</p> 762<p><a name="_ftn55" href="#_ftnref55">[55]</a> CQ Transcriptions, âHudson Institute Holds Discussion on US Technological Superiority,â August 13, 2019.</p> 763<p><a name="_ftn56" href="#_ftnref56">[56]</a> CQ Transcriptions, âHudson Institute Holds Discussion on US Technological Superiority,â August 13, 2019.</p> 764<p><a name="_ftn57" href="#_ftnref57">[57]</a> Patrick Goodenough, âGuamâs Homeland Security Advisor: 0.000001% Chance of Missile âGetting Throughâ Defenses,â cnsnews.com, April 15, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/guams-homeland-security-adviser-0000001-chance-missile-getting">https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/guams-homeland-security-adviser-0000001-chance-missile-getting</a>.</p> 765<p><a name="_ftn58" href="#_ftnref58">[58]</a> Guam Governor Eddie Calvo, Facebook post, August 12, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1556954981038431">https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1556954981038431</a>.</p> 766<p><a name="_ftn59" href="#_ftnref59">[59]</a> Guam Governor Eddie Calvo, Facebook post, August 12, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1556954981038431">https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1556954981038431</a>.</p> 767<p><a name="_ftn60" href="#_ftnref60">[60]</a> âPress Gaggle with Secretary Mattisâ News Transcript, U.S. Department of Defense, August 14, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1278359/press-gaggle-with-secretary-mattis/">https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1278359/press-gaggle-with-secretary-mattis/</a>.</p> 768<p><a name="_ftn61" href="#_ftnref61">[61]</a> Zenny Phoung, âMissile Expert: Guam is âHeavily Protected by Missile Defense Systems at Seaâ and âOn the Ground,ââ cnsnews.com, August 11, 2017. Online at: <a href="https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/zenny-phuong/missile-expert-guam-heavily-protected-missile-defense-systems-sea-and">https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/zenny-phuong/missile-expert-guam-heavily-protected-missile-defense-systems-sea-and</a> .</p> 769<p><a name="_ftn62" href="#_ftnref62">[62]</a> Zhenhua Lu, âGuam âVery Well Protectedâ against N. Korean Attack: US Nuclear
769Commander,â <em>Korean Time</em>s, September 21, 2017. Online at: <a href="http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2017/09/672_236806.html">http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2017/09/672_236806.html</a>.</p> 770<p>%MCEPASTEBIN%</p> 771 </div> 772 <div class="post-meta"> 773 <div class="row"> 774 <div class="alignright"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/08/20/updated-list-of-claims-about-gmd-effectiveness-may-31-2018-2/#comments">1 Comment</a></div> 775 776 <span class="byline-post-date">by <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/author/mostlymissiledefense/" title="View all posts by mostlymissiledefense">mostlymissiledefense</a> on <em>August 20, 2019</em> • </span> 777 778 779 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/08/20/updated-list-of-claims-about-gmd-effectiveness-may-31-2018-2/" rel="bookmark">Permalink</a> 780 781 </div> 782 <div class="row">Posted in <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a></div> 783 784 785 </div> 786 <div class="print-view"> 787 <p><em>Posted by mostlymissiledefense on August 20, 2019</em></p> 788 <p>https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/08/20/updated-list-of-claims-about-gmd-effectiveness-may-31-2018-2/</p> 789 </div> 790 </div> 791 <!--/post --> 792 793 <div class="sep"></div> 794 795 796 <!-- post --> 797 <div class="post-1550 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized" id="post-1550"> 798 <h1 class="post-title"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/05/22/new-aegis-radar-to-be-100-times-more-sensitive-than-current-radar-may-22-2019/" rel="bookmark">New Aegis Radar to be 100 Times More Sensitive than Current Radar (May 22, 2019)</a></h1> <div class="post-text"> 799 <p>New Aegis Radar to be 100 Times More Sensitive than Current Radar (May 22, 2019)</p> 800<p>In my <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/02/12/https-mostlymissiledefense-com-new-s-band-missile-defense-radars-in-the-pacific-february-11-2018/">post of February 11</a>, 2019, I discussed a number of planned new S-band radars, including the Navyâs Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR), which is scheduled to begin deployment on the Navyâs new Flight III Aegis destroyers in about 2023. In that discussion, I used the standard claim that the AMDR, also designated the SPY-6(V)1, would be about 15 dB = 30 times more sensitive than the current SPY-1 radar on U.S. Navy cruisers and destroyers. I also noted, however, that there were some recent indications the AMDR might be even more sensitive, possibly by a factor of 40-70 over the SPY-1.</p> 801<p>Now, following developmental testing of the AMDR, the Navy has validated a Raytheon Company (the manufacturer of the AMDR) assessment that the radarâs actual sensitivity is almost 100 times that of the SPY-1.<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1">[1]</a></p> 802<p>The Technical Director of Raytheonâs Seapower Capability Systems, Curt von Braun, explained that âThe 30 was an original number. But [during] the test period out at Pacific Missile Range Facility, weâve been realizing additional sensitivity through our design margins that have now been tested. So weâre more at liberty to advertise the better performance than was designed in the margins and now those are being officially realized by the radar.â<a href="#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2">[2]</a></p> 803<p>According to Scott Pence, Raytheonâs Director of Naval Radar Systems, âSPY-6(V)1 is approximately 20 dB more sensitive than the SPY-1 â nearly 100 times â which translates to more than three times the original requirementâ and that âSPY-6 also delivers a significant increase in range to the legacy radar.â<a href="#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3">[3]</a></p> 804<p>Assuming the two radars were operated in exactly the same way (which seems unlikely), a factor of 100 in sensitivity would result in about a 3.2 times range increase against a given target.</p> 805<p>—————————————————————————————————————</p> 806<p><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1">[1]</a> Jason Sherman, âNavy Determines SPY-6 Radar Three Times Stronger than Original Requirement,â <em>Inside Defense SITREP</em>, May 6, 2019.</p> 807<p><a href="#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2">[2]</a> Sherman, âNavy Determines.â</p> 808<p><a href="#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3">[3]</a> Sherman, âNavy Determines.â</p> 809 </div> 810 <div class="post-meta"> 811 <div class="row"> 812 <div class="alignright">
812<a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/05/22/new-aegis-radar-to-be-100-times-more-sensitive-than-current-radar-may-22-2019/#respond">Leave a comment</a></div> 813 814 <span class="byline-post-date">by <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/author/mostlymissiledefense/" title="View all posts by mostlymissiledefense">mostlymissiledefense</a> on <em>May 22, 2019</em> • </span> 815 816 817 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/05/22/new-aegis-radar-to-be-100-times-more-sensitive-than-current-radar-may-22-2019/" rel="bookmark">Permalink</a> 818 819 </div> 820 <div class="row">Posted in <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a></div> 821 822 823 </div> 824 <div class="print-view"> 825 <p><em>Posted by mostlymissiledefense on May 22, 2019</em></p> 826 <p>https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/05/22/new-aegis-radar-to-be-100-times-more-sensitive-than-current-radar-may-22-2019/</p> 827 </div> 828 </div> 829 <!--/post --> 830 831 <div class="sep"></div> 832 833 834 <!-- post --> 835 <div class="post-1546 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized" id="post-1546"> 836 <h1 class="post-title"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/04/04/what-did-ftg-11-actually-prove-april-4-2019/" rel="bookmark">What Did FTG-11 Actually Prove? (April 4, 2019)</a></h1> <div class="post-text"> 837 <p><span style="font-family:Calibri;"><span style="color:#000000;"><span style="font-size:medium;">On March 25, 2019 the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) conducted FTG-11, a salvo test of the US Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system in which two interceptors were fired, just under a minute apart, at a single ICBN-range missile.  </span></span></span></p> 838<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">In a <a href="https://www.mda.mil/news/19news0003.html">press release</a> later that day, MDA described the test as follows:</span></p> 839<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">âThis test was the first salvo engagement of a threat-representative ICBM target by two Ground Based Interceptors (GBI), which were designated GBI-Lead, and GBI-Trail for the test. The GBI-Lead destroyed the reentry vehicle, as it was designed to do. The GBI-Trail then looked at the resulting debris and remaining objects, and, not finding any other reentry vehicles, selected the next âmost lethal objectâ it could identify, and struck that, precisely as it was designed to do.â</span></p> 840<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">The MDA press release stated that âInitial indications show the test met requirements.â It also quoted MDA Director Air Force Lt. General Samuel A. Greaves:</span></p> 841<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">âThe system worked exactly as it was designed to do, and the results of this test provide evidence of the practicable use of the salvo doctrine within missile defense. The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is vitally important to the defense of our homeland, and this test demonstrates that we have a capable, credible deterrent against a very real threat.â</span></p> 842<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">At yesterdayâs (April 3, 2019) hearing on missile defense before the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, General Greaves reaffirmed the success of the test. Asked by Senator Angus King whether the test was a success, General Greaves stated that although there were nine months of data to review, the âinitial look says it was a complete success.â</span></p> 843<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">Senator King then asked him to âDefine complete success, did the bullet hit the bullet?â</span></p> 844<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">After giving some background information on testing, General Greaves stated:</span></p> 845<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">âBut this test was different because we launched within a very short period of time tw
845o Ground-Based Interceptors operationally released by the combatant commander using their operational processes –which is very important — and the lead interceptor intercepted the ICBM-representative threat. But whatâs most important is that it created a debris field — and this test has been 10 years or more in the making — and the importance of that was the trailing — the second — interceptor was able to discern the debris from the next most lethal object — I can talk about it in a classified forum — and also intercepted that object. What that means is [an] enemy concept of operations which seeks to confuse our missile defense system by launching junk or debris would not be successful, thatâs why it was a success.â [My transcription from the <a href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/19-04-03-missile-defense-policies-and-programs">video of the hearing</a>.]</span></p> 846<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;"> </span><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">Both the press release and the General Greaves quote immediately above make it clear that after the first intercept, there remained both debris and at least one other object. All of these other objects must have had an appearance sufficiently different from the warhead so that the first interceptor could select the warhead. And at least one of these other objects must have had an appearance sufficiently different from the debris so that the second interceptor could identify it.</span></p> 847<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">So although when Senator Dan Sullivan asked General Greaves if the second interceptor had hit the largest debris fragment, General Greaves replied âYes, sir,â he immediately clarified this saying that it hit âthe next most lethal objectâ which he defined as âthe next object that most closely resembles a threat vehicle.â</span></p> 848<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">But what did FTG-15 actually prove? Did it provide âevidence of the practicable use of the salvo doctrineâ as the press release claimed? Did it demonstrate that such the salvo doctrine would defeat enemy attempts to confuse the system as General Greaves quote suggests? I think it is clear the answer to both questions is âNo.â</span></p> 849<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">Strictly speaking, the test did demonstrate that the GMD system could intercept a target resembling a warhead against a field of debris, none of which resembles a warhead. But why would any enemy try to defeat the system with such an obviously ineffective tactic (unless the warhead was disguised to look like debris)? Moreover, the debris field that an attacker might deploy along with its warhead likely would look quite different than the debris field produced by an interceptor hitting a warhead or other object. Finally, there was no need to launch two interceptors to conduct this demonstration. Debris could have been launched along with the first warhead, and there would have been no need to waste a second $70 million GBI interceptor. </span></p> 850<p><span style="color:#000000;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;"><span style="font-size:medium;">More importantly, the fundamental purpose of the salvo firing doctrine is to compensate for low missile defense system reliability, the interceptor reliability in particular. For example, if the GBIs were believed to be 60% reliable (although this is slightly higher than its success rate in intercept tests â see table at end of this post — there is not enough test data to know their what actual reliability is), then salvo firing N interceptors gives a probability of killing the target of P</span><sub>KN</sub><span style="font-size:medium;"> = 1 â (1-0.6)</span><sup>N</sup><span style="font-size:medium;">.  So for one interceptor P</span><sub>K1</sub><span style="font-size:medium;"> = 0.6, for a two-interceptor salvo P</span><sub>K2</sub><span style="font-size:medium;"> = 0.86, and for a three interceptor salvo P</span><sub>K3</sub></span><span style="font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;"> = 0.936. This is why many observers of the GMD system have speculated that the GMD firing doctrine is at least a three or four interceptor salvo against a single attacking missile. This assumes that the failure of any one interceptor is statistically independent of the others.</span></span></p> 851<p><span style="font-family:Calibri;"><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="color:#000000;">A two interceptor salvo firing doctrine benefits the defense against an attacking missile when the first interceptor fails. There is no benefit from the second interceptor if the first interceptor destroys the target, as was the case in FTG-11. </span></span></span></p> 852<p><span style="font-family:Calibri;"><span style="color:#000000;"><span style="font-size:medium;">More importantly, when an attacker takes deliberate and effective steps to defeat the defense (countermeasures), the salvo doctrine will be much less effective. This is because if a countermeasure (and not an interceptor reliability problem) causes the first interceptor to fail, then there is a substantial probability that the countermeasure will also cause subsequent interceptors to fail. For example, consider a case in which the warhead is disguised to look like a decoy and is accompanied by five credible light-weight decoys. If the interceptor is unable to distinguish between the disguised warhead and the decoys, it will have to choose one of six potential targets. Assuming  the interceptor has a same reliability as assumed above, 0.6, the chance of a successful intercept of the warhead with a single interceptor is only P</span><sub>K1</sub><span style="font-size:medium;"> = 0.6 * (1/6) = 0.10. In a salvo of two interceptors, if the first interceptor fails to destroy the warhead, the odds for the second one are slightly better, because there is an 60% chance it will see only five targets, so the kill probability for this interceptor is PÂ</span><sub>K1</sub><span style="font-size:medium;"> = 0.6*0.6*(1/5) + 0.4*0.6*(1/6) = 0.112, and the overall success rate for the two intercept salvo is only P</span><sub>K2</sub></span></span><span style="font-family:Calibri;"><span style="color:#000000;font-size:medium;"> = 0.201. The salvo firing doctrine does not solve the countermeasure problem, which has long been recognized as the most important and difficult problem facing an above-the-atmosphere defense such as the GMD system</span></span></p> 853<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">
853It is worth noting that FTG-11 was not MDAâs first attempt to intercept a target against a debris field. On November 1 2015, MDA conducted <a href="https://mda.mil/news/15news0008.html">test FTO-02 event 2</a>.  In this test, a short range ballistic missile target was successfully intercepted by a THAAD interceptor, creating a debris field. <a href="https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/633494/amc-c-17-facilitates-airdrop-for-missile-defense-agency-test/">An Aegis SM-3 Block IB TU interceptor then attempted to intercept a medium-range ballistic missile against the background of this debris field.</a> However, the SM-3 missile failed before it could make the intercept attempt. The target was then destroyed by a second THAAD interceptor, although it is unclear (to me) if the target was still in the vicinity of the debris field. However, even prior to FTO-02, MDA had conducted â<a href="https://spacenews.com/37467missile-defense-sm-3-test-data-may-hold-clues-to-shoot-look-shoot-capability/">tests to verify interceptor performance in debris clouds</a>â although these most likely were of systems such as the Aegis SM-3 or THAAD and involved only a single interceptor.</span></p> 854<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">I think FTG-11 is better regarded as two separate intercept tests, albeit separated by less than a minute. I have accordingly updated my <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2018/11/30/updated-tables-of-intercept-test-november-302018/">Tables of Intercept Tests post of November 30, 2018</a>, counting both tests as successes. The GMD table from that post is below:</span></p> 855<p><img data-attachment-id="1543" data-permalink="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2018/11/30/updated-tables-of-intercept-test-november-302018/gmdtestsapril2019/" data-orig-file="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/gmdtestsapril2019.png" data-orig-size="449,497" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-title="GMDTestsApril2019" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-large-file="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/gmdtestsapril2019.png?w=449" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1543" src="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/gmdtestsapril2019.png" alt="GMDTestsApril2019" width="449" height="497" srcset="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/gmdtestsapril2019.png 449w, https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/gmdtestsapril2019.png?w=136&h=150 136w, https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/gmdtestsapril2019.png?w=271&h=300 271w" sizes="(max-width: 449px) 100vw, 449px" /></p> 856 </div> 857 <div class="post-meta"> 858 <div class="row"> 859 <div class="alignright"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/04/04/what-did-ftg-11-actually-prove-april-4-2019/#respond">Leave a comment</a></div> 860 861 <span class="byline-post-date">by <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/author/mostlymissiledefense/" title="View all posts by mostlymissiledefense">mostlymissiledefense</a> on <em>April 4, 2019</em> • </span> 862 863 864 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/04/04/what-did-ftg-11-actually-prove-april-4-2019/" rel="bookmark">Permalink</a> 865 866 </div> 867 <div class="row">Posted in <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a></div> 868 869 870 </div> 871 <div class="print-view"> 872 <p><em>Posted by mostlymissiledefense on April 4, 2019</em></p> 873 <p>https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/04/04/what-did-ftg-11-actually-prove-april-4-2019/</p> 874 </div> 875 </div> 876 <!--/post --> 877 878 <div class="sep"></div> 879 880 881 <!-- post --> 882 <div class="post-1540 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized" id="post-1540"> 883 <h1 class="post-title"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/04/02/estimating-the-range-of-the-long-range-discrimination-radar-april-2-2019/" rel="bookmark">Estimating the Range of the Long Range Discrimination Radar (April 2, 2019)</a></h1> <div class="post-text"> 884 <p>In my <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/02/12/https-mostlymissiledefense-com-new-s-band-missile-defense-radars-in-the-pacific-february-11-2018/#more-1476">post of February 11 2019</a>
884, I discuss what is publicly known about the Long-Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) now under construction in central Alaska and the closely related Homeland Defense Radars (HDRs) to be built in the Pacific. The post also discussed the new SPY-6 radar to be deployed on new construction U.S. Navy Aegis destroyers starting in about 2023 and the Lockheed Martin Solid State Radar (SSR) to be used in the planned Japanese Aegis Ashore missile defense facilities.</p> 885<p>In this post, I attempt to make some estimates about the LRDRâs capabilities, and, by extension, those of the HDRs. This requires making some speculative, although I think reasonable, assumptions.</p> 886<p>Only a few technical details are known about the LRDR. It has two antenna faces. Artist renderings of the LRDR suggest that the boresites of the two faces are separated by about 120°, which is consistent with the reported requirement that the LRDR must have a âwide instantaneous field of view to enable wide area defenseâ(see my <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/01/30/the-lrdr-not-the-best-discrimination-money-can-buy-january-30-2019/">post of January 30, 2019</a>).  It is known that the LRDR operates in S-Band, which extends from 2 GHz to 4 GHz. S-Band was chosen over X-Band, which offers superior discrimination capabilities, largely due to cost considerations. It likely has an antenna area of about 280-300 m<sup>2</sup> per antenna face. For convenience, I repeat the part of my February 11 2018 post on which this conclusion about the antenna is based:</p> 887<p>âA 2017 article stated that the LRDR will have two 3,000 square-foot antenna arrays (3,000 sq-ft = 279 m<sup>2</sup>).<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1">[1]</a> According to Chandra Marshall, Lockheedâs LRDR program manager, the LRDR will be about 25 times larger than a SPY-1 antenna.<a href="#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2">[2]</a> Assuming this comparison applies to each face of the radars, since a SPY-1 antenna face has an aperture of about 12 m<sup>2</sup>, this gives an aperture of about 300 m<sup>2</sup> for the LRDR.â</p> 888<p>Based on this information, what can we deduce about the LRDRâs capabilities? First, Iâll assume the smaller of the of the two antenna areas above, A = 280m<sup>2</sup>. Assuming a square antenna, as suggested by the renderings in my February 11 post (the drawing in the January 30 post suggests a circular antenna, but this is likely an older rendering), then the antenna would be D = 16.7 m square. Assuming that the LRDR operates at a wavelength of about λ = 8.6 cm, corresponding to a frequency of about 3.5 GHz (for comparison, the current Aegis SPY-1 radar operates at 3.1-3.5 GHz), gives an approximate beamwidth of θ â λ/D = 16.7/0.086 = 0.0051 rad = 0.29°. This gives a beamwidth of about 20 km at a range of 4,000 km. The gain G of the antenna, assuming it is fully populated with T/R modules, is given by G = 4ÏA/λ<sup>2</sup> = 480,000.</p> 889<p>To try to get a rough estimate of the LRDRâs tracking range, I start with a basic form of the radar equation:</p> 890<p><img data-attachment-id="1538" data-permalink="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/?attachment_id=1538" data-orig-file="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/radareq04022019.png" data-orig-size="197,74" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-title="RadarEq04022019" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-large-file="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/radareq04022019.png?w=197" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1538" src="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/radareq04022019.png" alt="RadarEq04022019" width="197" height="74" srcset="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/radareq04022019.png 197w, https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/radareq04022019.png?w=150&h=56 150w" sizes="(max-width: 197px) 100vw, 197px" /></p> 891<p>R<sub>max</sub> = maximum radar range (m),</p> 892<p>Ï = antenna aperture efficiency,</p> 893<p>P<sub>av</sub> = radar average power (W),</p> 894<p>A = antenna area (m<sup>
8942</sup>),</p> 895<p>G = antenna gain,</p> 896<p>t<sub>d</sub> = beam dwell time,</p> 897<p>Ï = radar cross section of target (m<sup>2</sup>),</p> 898<p>k = Boltzmannâs constant (1.38×10<sup>-23</sup> J/K),</p> 899<p>T<sub>0</sub> = 290 K, F<sub>N</sub> = receiver noise figure,</p> 900<p>(S/N) = signal-to noise ratio required for detection,</p> 901<p>L<sub>S</sub> = system losses.</p> 902<p>The problem here is that we do not know the value of many of the quantities in the radar equation, most notably P<sub>av</sub>. One possible way around this problem is to compare the LRDR to another radar using similar technology but for which more information is available. The obvious choice here is the Aegis SPY-6.</p> 903<p>Both the LRDR and the SPY-6 are active array radars using GaN Transmit/Receive (T/R) modules and both operate in S-Band. Both radars are state-of-the-art in their use of new GaN technology. Raytheon (the maker of the SPY-6) competed with Lockheed Martin for the LRDR, HDR-H and the Japanese Aegis Ashore SSR and won each of these contracts. This suggests that the radar technology used in the LRDR is at least comparable with that used in the SPY-6. So I will assume both radars operate at the same frequency (wavelength), will take Ï/F<sub>N</sub>L<sub>S</sub> to be the same for both radars and assume that the T/R modules in each radar have the same average power.</p> 904<p>Since both radars operate in S-Band, it is reasonable to assume that the target radar cross section will be the same for both radars. If we then operate both radars using the same dwell time and require the same S/N for tracking, we get:</p> 905<p>RÂ<sub>L</sub><sup>4</sup>/R<sub>6</sub><sup>4</sup> â P<sub>L</sub>A<sub>L</sub>G<sub>L</sub>/P<sub>6</sub>A<sub>6</sub>G<sub>6</sub>,</p> 906<p>where the subscript âLâ denotes the LRDR and the subscript â6â denotes the SPY-6, and the P is average power. If both radars have the same spacing between modules<a href="#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3">[3]</a>, then the average power per antenna face will be proportional to the antenna area, and since G = 4ÏA/λ<sup>2</sup>, we get:</p> 907<p>RÂ<sub>L</sub><sup>4</sup>/R<sub>6</sub><sup>4</sup> = A<sub>L</sub><sup>3</sup>/A<sub>6</sub><sup>3</sup>.</p> 908<p>Using 280 m<sup>2</sup> for the LRDR antenna area and taking the antenna area for one face of the SPY-6 to be 13.8 m<sup>2</sup> (as discussed in my February 11 post), we get:</p> 909<p>R<sub>L</sub><sup>4</sup>/R<sub>6</sub><sup>4</sup> â A<sub>L</sub><sup>3</sup>/A<sub>6</sub><sup>3</sup> = 280<sup>3</sup>/13.8<sup>3</sup> = 20.3<sup>3</sup> = 8,370 and R<sub>L</sub> â 9.6R<sub>6</sub>.</p> 910<p>Thus if the LRDR and SPY-6 were operated in the same way and against the same target, the detection and tracking ranges for the LRDR will be about 9.6 times that of the SPY-6. In actual practice, the LRDR will likely be operated in a way that will give an even greater range advantage.</p> 911<p>However, this still does not give us a numerical range for the LRDR because we donât know the range of the SPY-6. However, we do know that the SPY-6 is expected to be at least 15dB â 3
9111.6 times more sensitive than the current Aegis SPY-1radar (see my February 11 2019 post). If the subscript â1â denotes the SPY-1, then we have:</p> 912<p>R<sub>L</sub><sup>4</sup>/R<sub>1</sub><sup>4</sup> â 8,370*31.6 = 264,000 and R<sub>L</sub> â 22.7R<sub>1</sub>.</p> 913<p>My <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2012/10/23/438/">post (along with Theodore Postol) of October 23, 2012</a> notes the claim that the SPY-1 âcan track golf ball-sized targets at ranges in excess of 165 kilometers.â<a href="#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4">[4]</a> This claim was not made in the context of ballistic missile defense, but rather for air targets. A golf ball-size (1.68 inches diameter) metallic sphere corresponds to radar cross section (RCS) of about 0.0025 m<sup>2</sup> at 3.3 GHz. Scaling this to a RCS of 0.03 m<sup>2</sup> (for a missile target at S-Band) gives a range in excess of 310 km. Since the Aegis radar must be continually scanning the sky for incoming threats, this range is likely based on a relatively short dwell time. Using a relatively long dwell time of 0.1 second and S/N = 20 for detection and tracking, we obtained a range of 550 km. Using these two figures as rough lower and upper bounds on the Aegis radar range, gives upper and lower range estimates for the LRDR of 7,000 to 12,500 km.â</p> 914<p>In a missile defense context, such large tracking ranges are not usually obtainable, because at ranges greater than about 4,000 km missile targets on minimum energy trajectories will not rise above the horizon. However, even using the 7,000 km lower-bound range figure, the LRDR would be able to obtain a S/N on a 0.03 m<sup>2</sup> target of nearly 200 at a range of 4,000 km. Obviously, at shorter ranges the S/N would be much greater.</p> 915<p>A high S/N ratio can also be essential for constructing a target object map (TOM) that allows a scene (threat cloud) viewed by a radar to be translated into the scene that would be seen by an infrared-homing kill vehicle. For a brief discussion of this issue, see Countermeasures, pp. 77-79.<a href="#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5">[5]</a></p> 916<p>As described by the 2012 National Academy of Sciences report:</p> 917<p>âWith adequate signal-to-noise ratio, a monopulse tracking radar can limit measurement error to less than 1 percent of its beamwidth. Over extended track periods, the relative positions can be refined by a further order of magnitude. Along with measurement of relative range to a fraction of a meter, using wideband waveforms, these position data provide a three-dimensional target object map that can be converted to the angular coordinates of a homing seeker, ensuring proper registration of each object in the target cluster.â<a href="#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6">[6]</a></p> 918<p>However, measuring an angular position to 1 percent of a beamwidth with a monopulse radar requires a very large S/N ratio. For a square antenna with sides D, the angular measurement error is given by:<a href="#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7">[7]</a></p> 919<p>Îθ = 0.5 (S/N)<sup>-0.5 </sup>(λ/D)</p> 920<p>Since λ/D is the approximate beamwidth, achieving an angular measurement of 1 percent of the beamwidth requires S/N â 2,500.</p> 921<p>For the lower-bound and upper-bound estimates above, a S/N of 2,500 would be achieved at ranges of about 2,100 and 3,700 km respectively.</p> 922<p>What does the above say about the Homeland Defense Radars (HDRs)? These are often described as scaled-down versions of the LRDR. For example, the HDR-H, to be built in Hawaii, fills a role previously proposed for a radar that was to be called the Medium Range Discrimination Radar.  However, the projected costs of the HDRs strongly suggest that they are not much smaller than the LRDR. As discussed in my post of February 11, the HDR-H is expected to cost about $1.0 billion, about 77% of $1.3 billion cost of the LRDR. However, the LRDR will have two radar faces, while the HDR-H will have only one. This factor alone could account for the cost difference.</p> 923<p>The HDR-P, on the other hand, will have two radar faces and is projected to cost the same $1.3 billion as the LRDR. It thus seems likely to be similar in scale to the LRDR. As discussed in my post of February 11, although the United States has not announced where the HDR+P will be built, Japanese media reports indicate that it will be built in Japan.  A two-faced HDR built in northern Japan would be able to look deep into both China and eastern Russia, and would undoubtedly encounter strong opposition from both countries.</p> 924<p>A December 2018 Government Accountability Office report stated that: âAccording to DOD officials, the department may no longer need Cobra Dane to meet the ballistic missile defense mission after MDA fields a new radar in the Pacific region in fiscal year 2025,â but that it would continue to operate Cobra Dane until it was replaced with a system with greater or equal capabilities.<a href="#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8">[8]</a> (The date for the Pacific radar has since slipped to 2026.)  The same report also stated that there would be no radar tracking coverage gap (between the TPY-2s in Japan, the Cobra Dane on Shemya Island, and the LRDR in central Alaska) once the LRDR was deployed for North Korean missiles fired towards the continental United States. However, since the Cobra Dane is not capable of discrimination, there would be a discrimination gap for North Korean missiles launched towards the eastern United States. In addition, once the Cobra Dane is retired (current plans call for operating it until at least 2030) there would be a tracking gap as well.</p> 925<p>
925The deployment of a two-faced HDR-P in either Japan or Shemya would close both of these gaps.</p> 926<p>—————————————————————————-</p> 927<p><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1">[1]</a> Marcus Weisgerber, âPentagon Eyes Missile-Defense Sensors in Space,â <em>Defense One</em>, August 30, 2016.</p> 928<p><a href="#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2">[2]</a> David B. Larter, âHereâs the Latest on Lockheedâs Massive Long-Range Anti-Ballistic Missile Radar,â <em>Space News</em>, December 9, 2019.</p> 929<p><a href="#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3">[3]</a> Since the Aegis radar may only need to scan 90 degrees with each radar face, its spacing between modules could be greater than for the LRDR. This would give a result even more favorable to the LRDR.</p> 930<p><a href="#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4">[4]</a> John A. Robinson, âForce Protection from the Sea: Employing the SPY-1D Radar,â <em>Field Artillery</em>, March-June 2004, pp. 24-25.</p> 931<p><a href="#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5">[5]</a> A.M. Sessler, J.M. Cornwall, B. Dietz, S. Fetter, S. Frankel, R. L. Garwin, K. Gottfried, L. Gronlund, G. N. Lewis, T. A. Postol, and D. C. Wright, <em>Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the Planned US National Missile Defense System,</em> Cambridge, Massachusetts: Union of Concerned Scientists /MIT Security Studies Program, 2000. Online at: <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/nwgs/cm_all.pdf">http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/nwgs/cm_all.pdf</a>.</p> 932<p><a href="#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6">[6]</a> U.S. National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Committee on Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives, <em>Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives, </em>Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press, September 2012, p. 137. Online at: <a href="http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13189">http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13189</a>.</p> 933<p><a href="#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7">[7]</a> J.C. Toomay, <em>Radar Principles for the Non-Specialist, 2<sup>nd</sup> ed.,</em> Mendham, New Jersey: Scitech Publishing, 1998, pp. 56-58</p> 934<p><a href="#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8">[8]</a> Government Accountability Office, âMissile Defense: Air Force Report to Congress Included Information on the Capabilities, Operational Availability and Funding Plan for Cobra Dane,â GAO-19-68, December 2018, pp. 2, 11. Online at: <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/696076.pdf">https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/696076.pdf</a>.</p> 935 </div> 936 <div class="post-meta"> 937 <div class="row"> 938 <div class="alignright"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/04/02/estimating-the-range-of-the-long-range-discrimination-radar-april-2-2019/#comments">2 Comments</a></div> 939 940 <span class="byline-post-date">by <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/author/mostlymissiledefense/" title="View all posts by mostlymissiledefense">mostlymissiledefense</a> on <em>April 2, 2019</em> • </span> 941 942 943 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/04/02/estimating-the-range-of-the-long-range-discrimination-radar-april-2-2019/" rel="bookmark">Permalink</a> 944 945 </div> 946 <div class="row">Posted in <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a></div> 947 948 949 </div> 950 <div class="print-view"> 951 <p><em>Posted by mostlymissiledefense on April 2, 2019</em></p> 952 <p>https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/04/02/estimating-the-range-of-the-long-range-discrimination-radar-april-2-2019/</p> 953 </div> 954 </div> 955 <!--/post --> 956 957 <div class="sep"></div> 958 959 960 <!-- post --> 961 <div class="post-1516 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized" id="post-1516"> 962 <h1 class="post-title"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/27/upcoming-mda-flight-and-intercept-tests-march-27-2019/" rel="bookmark">Upcoming MDA flight and Intercept Tests (March 27, 2019)(Revised)</a></h1> <div class="post-text"> 963 <p>Now that the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) budget materials are available, I have compiled a list of MDAâs planned flight tests and intercept tests out through 2024 (there is one test listed for 1Q FY2025).  These tests are listed in the two tables below, along with whatever other information about each test that I have been able to find (and sometimes some speculation). <strong>(Revision: at the end of the post I have repeated both tables in an easier to read (I think) format)</strong></p> 964<p>Two points about these tables:</p> 965<p>(1) In the past several years, there have been very few Patriot tests listed, presumably because most of these tests are conducted by the U.S. Army, not by the MDA (except for Patriots participating in integrated intercept tests). This year, however, there are 13 Patriot flight or intercept tests listed. All of the ones in FY 2020, and likely all of them except for the one in the integrated test FTO-03, appear to be associated with a U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) Joint Emergent Operational Need (JEON) Statement. JEON is focused on
965near term improvements to U.S. missile defense in South Korea and the program was assigned to MDA, together with the U.S. Armyâs Lower Tier Program Office (LTPO). According the MDAâs FY 2020 Budget Overview: âFinally MDA continues development efforts associated with USFK JEON that provides enhanced THAAD capability against specific USFK threats, integrates THAADâs capability to detect and track threat ballistic missiles at long ranges [for use] with the Patriot Advanced Capability â 3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) to take advantage of its full kinematic capability, integrate MSE launchers and missiles into the THAAD weapon system, and accelerates initial capability to [use] remote launchers and increase defended area.â With the exception of FTO-03, I have put all the Patriot tests into a separate Table 2.</p> 966<p>(2) The budget materials show one âIsraeli Cooperative Intercept Flight Testâ per year from FY 2019 to FY 2024. However, each of these âtestsâ span an entire year, and each is apparently a series of tests rather than a single test. The FY 2020 MDA Budget Overview says: âIn FY 2020, the MDA budget will also support several flight tests across the Israeli portfolio.â Since I cannot (yet, at least) associate tests with particular dates and systems, I have not included these in the tables.</p> 967<p>Table 1: Upcoming MDA Flight/Intercept Tests</p> 968<table> 969<tbody> 970<tr> 971<td width="91">Designation</td> 972<td width="66">Date (FY)</td> 973<td width="481">Description/Comments</td> 974</tr> 975<tr> 976<td width="91">FS-19 E4</td> 977<td width="66">3Q 2019</td> 978<td width="481">DT intercept test as part of NATO Formidable Shield exercise in the Atlantic. Likely SM-6 or SM-3 Block IB.</td> 979</tr> 980<tr> 981<td width="91">FTM-31 E1</td> 982<td width="66">4Q 2019</td> 983<td width="481">DT/OT salvo intercept of MRBM by SM-6 Dual II interceptors</td> 984</tr> 985<tr> 986<td width="91">FTM-31 E2</td> 987<td width="66">4Q 2019</td> 988<td width="481">Aegis DT intercept test?</td> 989</tr> 990<tr> 991<td width="91">FTT-23</td> 992<td width="66">4Q 2019</td> 993<td width="481">THAAD intercept test demonstrating remote launch</td> 994</tr> 995<tr> 996<td width="91">FTM-32</td> 997<td width="66">2Q 2020</td> 998<td width="481">DT/OT salvo intercept of MRBM by SM-6 Dual II interceptors</td> 999</tr> 1000<tr> 1001<td width="91">FTM-33</td> 1002<td width="66">2Q 2020</td> 1003<td width="481">DT/OT SM-6 interception of multiple SRBMs</td> 1004</tr> 1005<tr> 1006<td width="91">FTM-44</td> 1007<td width="66">2Q 2020</td> 1008<td width="481">SM-3 Block IIA intercept test. Likely this is the Congressionally-mandated test against an ICBM.</td> 1009</tr> 1010<tr> 1011<td width="91">FTM-30</td> 1012<td width="66">4Q 2020</td> 1013<td width="481">DT/OT SM-3 Block IIA intercept of MRBM with countermeasures</td> 1014</tr> 1015<tr> 1016<td width="91">FTO-03</td> 1017<td width="66">4Q 2020</td> 1018<td width="481">OT integrated intercept test for EPAA Phase3. Patriot intercept +THAAD intercept of IRBM + 2 SM-3 Block IIA intercepts of IRBMs. One Block IIA Launched from a ship, one from the test Aegis Ashore site in Hawaii.</td> 1019</tr> 1020<tr> 1021<td width="91">GM BVT-03</td> 1022<td width="66">4Q 2020</td> 1023<td width="481">Flight test of GBI booster with 2/3 stage selection capability. No target.</td> 1024</tr> 1025<tr> 1026<td width="91">TH CTV-01</td> 1027<td width="66">1Q 2021</td> 1028<td width="481">DT THAAD test flight. No target.  Involves Army LTPO.  May be part of USFK JEON?</td> 1029</tr> 1030<tr> 1031<td width="91">JMTF-07 E1</td> 1032<td width="66">2Q 2021</td> 1033<td width="481">US/Japan DT intercept test. Possibly SM-3 Block IIA or SM-6?</td> 1034</tr> 1035<tr> 1036<td width="91">JMTF-07 E2</td> 1037<td width="66">2Q 2021</td> 1038<td width="481">US/Japan DT intercept test. Possibly SM-3 Block IIA or SM-6?</td> 1039</tr> 1040<tr> 1041<td width="91">FTT-21</td> 1042<td width="66">2Q 2021</td> 1043<td width="481">DT THAAD intercept test.</td> 1044</tr> 1045<tr> 1046<td width="91">FS-21 E4</td> 1047<td width="66">4Q 2021</td> 1048<td width="481">DT intercept test as part of NATO Formidable Shield exercise in the Atlantic.</td> 1049</tr> 1050<tr> 1051<td width="91">GM CTV-03</td> 1052<td width="66">2Q 2022</td> 1053<td width="481">GMD flight test . First flight test of Redesigned Kill Vehicle (RKV). No target.</td> 1054</tr> 1055<tr>
1056<td width="91">FTM-38</td> 1057<td width="66">4Q 2022</td> 1058<td width="481">DT/OT Aegis intercept test</td> 1059</tr> 1060<tr> 1061<td width="91">FTM-37</td> 1062<td width="66">1Q 2023</td> 1063<td width="481">OT Aegis intercept test</td> 1064</tr> 1065<tr> 1066<td width="91">FTG-17</td> 1067<td width="66">1Q 2023</td> 1068<td width="481">DT GMD intercept test.  First RKV intercept test</td> 1069</tr> 1070<tr> 1071<td width="91">FTT-24</td> 1072<td width="66">3Q 2023</td> 1073<td width="481">DT THAAD intercept test</td> 1074</tr> 1075<tr> 1076<td width="91">FTM-43</td> 1077<td width="66">4Q 2023</td> 1078<td width="481">DT/OT Aegis intercept test</td> 1079</tr> 1080<tr> 1081<td width="91">FS-23 E4</td> 1082<td width="66">4Q 2023</td> 1083<td width="481">DT intercept test as part of NATO Formidable Shield exercise in the Atlantic.</td> 1084</tr> 1085<tr> 1086<td width="91">FTG-18</td> 1087<td width="66">1Q 2024</td> 1088<td width="481">DT/OT GMD intercept test.  Second RKV intercept test</td> 1089</tr> 1090<tr> 1091<td width="91">FTM-40</td> 1092<td width="66">2Q 2024</td> 1093<td width="481">DT/OT Aegis intercept test</td> 1094</tr> 1095<tr> 1096<td width="91">FTG-19</td> 1097<td width="66">1Q 2025</td> 1098<td width="481">DT/OT GMD intercept test</td> 1099</tr> 1100</tbody> 1101</table> 1102<p>DT = developmental test, OT = operational test</p> 1103<p>Table 2: Patriot Tests</p> 1104<table> 1105<tbody> 1106<tr> 1107<td width="91">Designation</td> 1108<td width="66">Date (FY)</td> 1109<td width="481">Description/Comments</td> 1110</tr> 1111<tr> 1112<td width="91">FTP-21</td> 1113<td width="66">2Q 2020</td> 1114<td width="481">DT Patriot intercept test</td> 1115</tr> 1116<tr> 1117<td width="91">FTP-27 E1</td> 1118<td width="66">2Q 2020</td> 1119<td width="481">DT/OT Patriot flight test, demonstrating interoperability with THAAD system.</td> 1120</tr> 1121<tr> 1122<td width="91">FTP-27 E2</td> 1123<td width="66">3Q 2020</td> 1124<td width="481">DT/OT Patriot flight test. Same objective as E1?</td> 1125</tr> 1126<tr> 1127<td width="91">FTP-17</td> 1128<td width="66">3Q 2020</td> 1129<td width="481">DT Patriot intercept test</td> 1130</tr> 1131<tr> 1132<td width="91">FTP-22</td> 1133<td width="66">3Q 2020</td> 1134<td width="481">OT Patriot intercept test</td> 1135</tr> 1136<tr> 1137<td width="91">FTP-23</td> 1138<td width="66">3Q 2021</td> 1139<td width="481">DT/OT Patriot flight test.</td> 1140</tr> 1141<tr> 1142<td width="91">FTP-28</td> 1143<td width="66">3Q 2021</td> 1144<td width="481">OT Patriot intercept test</td> 1145</tr> 1146<tr> 1147<td width="91">FTP-25</td> 1148<td width="66">4Q 2021</td> 1149<td width="481">OT Patriot intercept test</td> 1150</tr> 1151<tr> 1152<td width="91">FTP-24</td> 1153<td width="66">4Q 2021</td> 1154<td width="481">DT Patriot intercept test</td> 1155</tr> 1156<tr> 1157<td width="91">FTP-18</td> 1158<td width="66">2Q 2022</td> 1159<td width="481">OT Patriot intercept test</td> 1160</tr> 1161<tr> 1162<td width="91">FTP-19</td> 1163<td width="66">2Q 2022</td> 1164<td width="481">DT Patriot intercept test</td> 1165</tr> 1166<tr> 1167<td width="91">FTP-20</td> 1168<td width="66">2Q 2022</td> 1169<td width="481">OT Patriot intercept test</td> 1170</tr> 1171</tbody> 1172</table> 1173<p><img data-attachment-id="1524" data-permalink="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/?attachment_id=1524" data-orig-file="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights1-april2019.png" data-orig-size="676,649" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-title="UpcomingFlights1-April2019" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-large-file="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights1-april2019.png?w=600" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1524" src="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights1-april2019.png" alt="UpcomingFlights1-April2019" width="676" height="649" srcset="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights1-april2019.png 676w, https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights1-april2019.png?w=150&h=144 150w, https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights1-april2019.png?w=300&h=288 300w" sizes="(max-width: 676px) 100vw, 676px" /></p> 1174<p><img data-attachment-id="1526" data-permalink="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/27/upcoming-mda-flight-and-intercept-tests-march-27-2019/upcomingflights2-march-2019/" data-orig-file="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights2-march-2019.png" data-orig-size="660,312" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-title="UpcomingFlights2-March 2019" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-large-file="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights2-march-2019.png?w=600" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1526" src="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights2-march-2019.png" alt="UpcomingFlights2-March 2019" width="660" height="312" srcset="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights2-march-2019.png 660w, https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights2-march-2019.png?w=150&h=71 150w, https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/upcomingflights2-march-2019.png?w=300&
1174h=142 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 660px) 100vw, 660px" /></p> 1175 </div> 1176 <div class="post-meta"> 1177 <div class="row"> 1178 <div class="alignright"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/27/upcoming-mda-flight-and-intercept-tests-march-27-2019/#respond">Leave a comment</a></div> 1179 1180 <span class="byline-post-date">by <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/author/mostlymissiledefense/" title="View all posts by mostlymissiledefense">mostlymissiledefense</a> on <em>March 27, 2019</em> • </span> 1181 1182 1183 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/27/upcoming-mda-flight-and-intercept-tests-march-27-2019/" rel="bookmark">Permalink</a> 1184 1185 </div> 1186 <div class="row">Posted in <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a></div> 1187 1188 1189 </div> 1190 <div class="print-view"> 1191 <p><em>Posted by mostlymissiledefense on March 27, 2019</em></p> 1192 <p>https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/27/upcoming-mda-flight-and-intercept-tests-march-27-2019/</p> 1193 </div> 1194 </div> 1195 <!--/post --> 1196 1197 <div class="sep"></div> 1198 1199 1200 <!-- post --> 1201 <div class="post-1508 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized" id="post-1508"> 1202 <h1 class="post-title"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/25/aegis-spy-1-radar-upgrade-march-25-2019/" rel="bookmark">Aegis SPY-1 Radar Upgrade (March 25, 2019)</a></h1> <div class="post-text"> 1203 1204<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Navy plans to equip its new Flight III Aegis destroyers with 1205its new SPY-6 radar. The SPY-6 is made 1206up of 37 self-contained Radar Module Assemblies (RMAs). The SPY-6 is expected be at least 30 times 1207more sensitive than the current Aegis SPY-1D radar (or 2.3 times the detection 1208or tracking range against a given target).</p> 1209 1210 1211 1212<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A reader of my March 13 post noted that in the FY 2020 1213budget the Navy announced plans to upgrade the SPY-1D Aegis radar on its Flight 1214IIA destroyers by replacing the current antennas and transmitters with a 24 RMA 1215antenna, and asked how this upgraded radar would compare to the current SPY-1D 1216radar and the new SPY-6.</p> 1217 1218 1219 1220<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Since the SPY-6 and the planned upgrade to the SPY-D will 1221use the same radar technology, they will primarily differ only in their power, 1222antenna area and gain. Since each of 1223these is proportional to the number of RMAs, the upgraded SPY-1 radar will have 1224(24/37)<sup>3</sup> = 0.27 of the sensitivity of the SPY-6. However, it will have about (0.27)(30) = 8 1225times the sensitivity of the current SPY-1D (which is a pretty big 1226improvement).</p> 1227 </div> 1228 <div class="post-meta"> 1229 <div class="row"> 1230 <div class="alignright"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/25/aegis-spy-1-radar-upgrade-march-25-2019/#comments">5 Comments</a></div> 1231 1232 <span class="byline-post-date">by <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/author/mostlymissiledefense/" title="View all posts by mostlymissiledefense">mostlymissiledefense</a> on <em>March 25, 2019</em> • </span> 1233 1234 1235 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/25/aegis-spy-1-radar-upgrade-march-25-2019/" rel="bookmark">Permalink</a> 1236 1237 </div> 1238 <div class="row">Posted in <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a></div> 1239 1240 1241 </div> 1242 <div class="print-view"> 1243 <p><em>Posted by mostlymissiledefense on March 25, 2019</em></p> 1244 <p>https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/25/aegis-spy-1-radar-upgrade-march-25-2019/</p> 1245 </div> 1246 </div> 1247 <!--/post --> 1248 1249 <div class="sep"></div> 1250 1251 1252 <!-- post --> 1253 <div class="post-1502 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized" id="post-1502"> 1254 <h1 class="post-title"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/19/gmd-testing-update-march-19-2019/" rel="bookmark">GMD Testing Update (March 19, 2019)</a></h1> <div class="post-text"> 1255 <p>The <a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2020/budget_justification/pdfs/03_RDT_and_E/RDTE_Vol2_MDA%20RDTE_PB20_Justification_Book.pdf">FY 2020 RDT&E budget documentation</a> for the Missile Defense Agency is now out, and unlike the previous yearâs materials it includes currently planned quarterly dates for flight and intercept tests of the Ground Based Midcourse (GMD) system. Through 2024 it appears that there are three intercept tests and two (non-intercept) flight tests planned. Here they are:</p> 1256<table> 1257<tbody> 1258<tr>
1259<td width="72"> 1260<p>Test</p> 1261</td> 1262<td width="90"> 1263<p>Date as of May 2017</p> 1264</td> 1265<td width="99"> 1266<p>Current Date</p> 1267</td> 1268<td width="378"> 1269<p>                                      Comments</p> 1270</td> 1271</tr> 1272<tr> 1273<td width="72"> 1274<p>FTG-11</p> 1275</td> 1276<td width="90"> 1277<p>4Q 2018</p> 1278</td> 1279<td width="99"> 1280<p>2Q FY 2019</p> 1281</td> 1282<td width="378"> 1283<p>Salvo intercept test. One CE-II and one CE-II Block I GBIs against an ICBM-range target.</p> 1284</td> 1285</tr> 1286<tr> 1287<td width="72"> 1288<p>BVT-03</p> 1289</td> 1290<td width="90"> 1291<p>     ?</p> 1292</td> 1293<td width="99"> 1294<p>4Q FY 2020</p> 1295</td> 1296<td width="378"> 1297<p>Flight test of upgraded GBI booster with selectable 2 or 3 stage capability. It will be launched from  Vandenberg.</p> 1298</td> 1299</tr> 1300<tr> 1301<td width="72"> 1302<p>CTV-03</p> 1303</td> 1304<td width="90"> 1305<p>1Q 2020</p> 1306</td> 1307<td width="99"> 1308<p>2Q FY 2022</p> 1309</td> 1310<td width="378"> 1311<p>Flight test of Redesigned Kill Vehicle (RKV)</p> 1312</td> 1313</tr> 1314<tr> 1315<td width="72"> 1316<p>FTG-17</p> 1317</td> 1318<td width="90"> 1319<p>1Q 2021</p> 1320</td> 1321<td width="99"> 1322<p>1Q FY 2023</p> 1323</td> 1324<td width="378"> 1325<p>First RKV intercept test.</p> 1326</td> 1327</tr> 1328<tr> 1329<td width="72"> 1330<p>FTG-18</p> 1331</td> 1332<td width="90"> 1333<p>1Q 2022</p> 1334</td> 1335<td width="99"> 1336<p>1Q FY 2024</p> 1337</td> 1338<td width="378"> 1339<p>Second RKV intercept test.</p> 1340</td> 1341</tr> 1342</tbody> 1343</table> 1344<p> </p> 1345<p>The testing schedule for the RKV shows a slip of about two years.   This is consistent with the two year delay (from 2023 to 2025) in RKV deployment that was announced at the <a href="https://dod.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1784150/department-of-defense-press-briefing-on-the-presidents-fiscal-year-2020-defense/">March 12 MDA press briefing</a> on its FY 2020 budget.</p> 1346<p> </p> 1347<p> </p> 1348 1349 1350<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p> 1351 </div> 1352 <div class="post-meta"> 1353 <div class="row"> 1354 <div class="alignright"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/19/gmd-testing-update-march-19-2019/#respond">Leave a comment</a></div> 1355 1356 <span class="byline-post-date">by <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/author/mostlymissiledefense/" title="View all posts by mostlymissiledefense">mostlymissiledefense</a> on <em>March 19, 2019</em> • </span> 1357 1358 1359 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/19/gmd-testing-update-march-19-2019/" rel="bookmark">Permalink</a> 1360 1361 </div> 1362 <div class="row">Posted in <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a></div> 1363 1364 1365 </div> 1366 <div class="print-view"> 1367 <p><em>Posted by mostlymissiledefense on March 19, 2019</em></p> 1368 <p>https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/19/gmd-testing-update-march-19-2019/</p> 1369 </div> 1370 </div> 1371 <!--/post --> 1372 1373 <div class="sep"></div> 1374 1375 1376 <!-- post --> 1377 <div class="post-1492 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized" id="post-1492"> 1378 <h1 class="post-title"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/13/mda-briefing-on-fy-2020-budget-march-13-2019/" rel="bookmark">MDA Briefing on FY 2020 Budget (March 13, 2019)(Updated March 14)</a></h1> <div class="post-text"> 1379 <p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) presented their proposed budget for FY 2019 yesterday. Although there is not yet any information about the budget posted on their website, a <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Video/videoid/665102/dvpcc/false/?dvpTag=Defense+on+Demand#DVIDSVideoPlayer581">video of the briefing </a>was posted today. I have put the slides shown at the briefing into a Word file, which is here:<a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/mda-budget_briefing-slides-03122019-1.docx"> MDA-Budget_Briefing-Slides-03122019</a></span></p> 1380<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">(The first slide was not shown on the video, but it is probably just a title slide as there was no discussion of it.)</span></p> 1381<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">I expect that a transcript of the briefing will be available soon. If so, I will add a link to it.</span></p> 1382<p>[Added March 14: The transcript is <a href="https://dod.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1784150/department-of-defense-press-briefing-on-the-presidents-fiscal-year-2020-defense/">here</a>.]</p> 1383<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">The two most interesting (to me) things I learned in the briefing:</span></p> 1384<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">(1) The RKV is delayed. The development and deployment of Redesigned Kill Vehicle, intended to be more reliable than the current kill vehicles deployed on the Ground-Based Interceptors (GBIs) of the current U.S. national missile defense system, has been delayed by two years, from 2023 to 2025. Since the RKVs were to be deployed on the 20 additional GBIs (bringing the total to 64) that were scheduled to begin deployment in Alaska in 2023, the beginning of the deployment of these additional GBIs has also delayed by two years from 2023 to 2025.</span></p> 1385<p><span style="color:#000000;font-family:Calibri;font-size:medium;">(2) The Neutral Particle Beam is back. Much discussed during the âStar Warsâ days, the state of technology at the time ultimately was shown to be far from allowing an actual neutral particle beam weapon to be built. However, in FY 2020 MDA plans to initiate a new program to develop a neutral particle beam that will âoffer new kill options.â MDA claims that this program could lead to an on-orbit demonstration as early as 2023.</span></p> 1386 </div> 1387 <div class="post-meta"> 1388 <div class="row"> 1389 <div class="alignright"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/13/mda-briefing-on-fy-2020-budget-march-13-2019/#comments">2 Comments</a></div> 1390
1391 <span class="byline-post-date">by <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/author/mostlymissiledefense/" title="View all posts by mostlymissiledefense">mostlymissiledefense</a> on <em>March 13, 2019</em> • </span> 1392 1393 1394 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/13/mda-briefing-on-fy-2020-budget-march-13-2019/" rel="bookmark">Permalink</a> 1395 1396 </div> 1397 <div class="row">Posted in <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a></div> 1398 1399 1400 </div> 1401 <div class="print-view"> 1402 <p><em>Posted by mostlymissiledefense on March 13, 2019</em></p> 1403 <p>https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/13/mda-briefing-on-fy-2020-budget-march-13-2019/</p> 1404 </div> 1405 </div> 1406 <!--/post --> 1407 1408 <div class="sep"></div> 1409 1410 1411 <div class="navigation"> 1412 <div class="alignleft"><a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/category/uncategorized/page/2/" >« Older Posts</a></div> 1413 <div class="alignright"></div> 1414 </div> 1415 1416 1417 </div><!-- /c2 --> 1418 1419 <div id="c3"> 1420 1421<ul class="widgets"> 1422 1423<li id="search-2" class="widget widget_search"><form role="search" method="get" id="searchform" class="searchform" action="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/"> 1424 <div> 1425 <label class="screen-reader-text" for="s">Search for:</label> 1426 <input type="text" value="" name="s" id="s" /> 1427 <input type="submit" id="searchsubmit" value="Search" /> 1428 </div> 1429 </form></li> 1430 <li id="recent-posts-2" class="widget widget_recent_entries"> 1431 <h2 class="widget-title">Recent Posts</h2> 1432 <ul> 1433 <li> 1434 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2020/02/27/gmd-testing-update-february-27-2020/">GMD Testing Update (February 27, 2020)</a> 1435 </li> 1436 <li> 1437 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2020/02/24/updated-list-of-claims-about-gmd-effectiveness-february-24-2020/">Updated List of Claims about GMD Effectiveness (February 24, 2020)</a> 1438 </li> 1439 <li> 1440 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/08/20/updated-list-of-claims-about-gmd-effectiveness-may-31-2018-2/">Updated List of Claims about GMD Effectiveness (August 20, 2019)</a> 1441 </li> 1442 <li> 1443 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/05/22/new-aegis-radar-to-be-100-times-more-sensitive-than-current-radar-may-22-2019/">New Aegis Radar to be 100 Times More Sensitive than Current Radar (May 22, 2019)</a> 1444 </li> 1445 <li> 1446 <a href="https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/04/04/what-did-ftg-11-actually-prove-april-4-2019/">What Did FTG-11 Actually Prove? (April 4, 2019)</a> 1447 </li> 1448 </ul> 1449 1450 </li><li id="archives-2" class="widget widget_archive"><h2 class="widget-title">Archives</h2> 1451 <ul> 1452 <li><a href='https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2020/02/'>February 2020</a></li> 1453 <li><a href='https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/08/'>August 2019</a></li> 1454 <li><a href='https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/05/'>May 2019</a></li> 1455 <li><a href='https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/04/'>April 2019</a></li> 1456 <li><a href='https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/03/'>March 2019</a></li> 1457 <li><a href='https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/02/'>
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