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The question this report puts is not whether Colombia mines, but who the mining is organised for: the State and communities, or the criminal networks already embedded in the gold chain.</strong></p> 468 469 470 471<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Produced by Fedesarrollo with Loom Strategy Centre, <em>Regulating for the State, not for crime</em> sets out the fiscal stakes of Colombia’s critical minerals.</p> 472 473 474 475<div style="height:32px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 476 477 478 479<div class="wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> 480<div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow"> 481<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="font-size:12px;letter-spacing:0.6px;text-transform:uppercase">Revenue to 2050</p> 482 483 484 485<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:2px;margin-bottom:2px;font-size:40px;font-weight:600;line-height:1.15">10â19tn <span style="font-size:20px;font-weight:500">pesos</span></p> 486 487 488 489<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px"><p style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px;color:#6b7280">â US$2.4â4.6bn</p></p> 490</div> 491 492 493 494<div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow"> 495<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="font-size:12px;letter-spacing:0.6px;text-transform:uppercase">Illicit gold, 2025</p> 496 497 498 499<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:2px;margin-bottom:2px;font-size:40px;font-weight:600;line-height:1.15">32â34tn <span style="font-size:20px;font-weight:500">pesos</span></p> 500 501 502 503<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px"><p style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px;color:#6b7280">â US$8bn</p></p> 504</div> 505 506 507 508<div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow"> 509<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="font-size:12px;letter-spacing:0.6px;text-transform:uppercase">China refines</p> 510 511 512 513<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:2px;margin-bottom:2px;font-size:40px;font-weight:600;line-height:1.15">60â90%</p> 514 515 516 517<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px"><p style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px;color:#6b7280">of key transition minerals</p></p> 518</div> 519</div> 520 521 522 523<div style="height:32px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 524 525 526 527<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Potential revenue from critical minerals to 2050 is equivalent to between 10 and 13 years of the environment ministry’s budget. Gross revenue from illicit gold in 2025 reached about 1.9% of GDP â above the fourth-quarter sales of Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state oil company â none of it taxed. China refines the bulk of the principal transition minerals, and the drive in Washington and Brussels to diversify away from that c
527oncentration opens a window for suppliers with verifiable chains.</p> 528 529 530 531<div style="height:32px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 532 533 534 535<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="1610" height="302" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1.png" alt="Bar comparison showing illicit gold gross income in 2025, around 33 trillion pesos, against Ecopetrol's Q4 2025 sales of 28.8 trillion pesos" class="wp-image-572" srcset="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1.png 1610w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-300x56.png 300w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-1024x192.png 1024w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-768x144.png 768w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-1536x288.png 1536w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-700x131.png 700w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-1500x281.png 1500w" sizes="(max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Fedesarrollo.</figcaption></figure> 536 537 538 539<div style="height:32px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 540 541 542 543<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The report’s starting point is where the money actually sits. Enforcement today concentrates on extraction, the lowest-value link in the chain, while the structural margins accrue downstream, among intermediaries, traders and exporters. Dismantling one link without touching the others does not reduce criminal income; it redistributes it.</p> 544 545 546 547<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 548 549 550 551<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="1610" height="645" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1.png" alt="Five stages of the illicit extraction chain from exploration to laundering, showing the larger criminal margins in commercialisation and laundering rather than extraction" class="wp-image-571" srcset="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1.png 1610w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-300x120.png 300w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-1024x410.png 1024w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-768x308.png 768w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-1536x615.png 1536w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-700x280.png 700w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-1500x601.png 1500w" sizes="(max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Where the criminal margin sits across the extraction chain. Source: Fedesarrollo.</figcaption></figure> 552 553 554 555<div style="height:48px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 556 557 558 559<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-color" style="color:#013893">Findings</h2> 560 561 562 563<div style="height:8px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 564 565 566 567<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">1.</strong> The revenue at stake in critical minerals is substantial â and a slice of it is already leaking to organised crime.</p> 568 569 570 571<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">2.</strong> What happens in the next five years will determine 2050 revenue. The window is open now.</p> 572 573 574 575<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">3.</strong> Crime runs the length of the gold chain and is now moving into critical minerals â copper, niobium, tantalum â before the State has measured its footprint.</p> 576 577 578 579<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">4.</strong> It is already on the ground where critical minerals sit: GuainÃa, Vich
579ada and the Venezuelan border along the Guiana Shield.</p> 580 581 582 583<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">5.</strong> Illicit mining does more than skim rents. It poisons rivers and entrenches criminal governance that erodes national security.</p> 584 585 586 587<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">6.</strong> Banning formal mining backfires. It hands the ground to operators who answer to no environmental, tax or labour rules.</p> 588 589 590 591<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 592 593 594 595<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The two criminal economies do not share a geography. Illicit gold is consolidated in a western and central arc through Antioquia, Chocó and southern BolÃvar. Critical minerals sit in the eastern borderlands, Vichada and GuainÃa, where documented seizures trace a corridor connecting Venezuela’s Orinoco Mining Arc to Colombian ports â and where armed groups are already positioned before extraction has properly begun.</p> 596 597 598 599<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 600 601 602 603<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="1639" height="973" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1.png" alt="Map of Colombia showing armed-group presence by department, illicit gold concentrated in the west and critical minerals activity along the eastern border with Venezuela" class="wp-image-573" srcset="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1.png 1639w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-300x178.png 300w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-1024x608.png 1024w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-768x456.png 768w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-1536x912.png 1536w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-700x416.png 700w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-1500x890.png 1500w" sizes="(max-width: 1639px) 100vw, 1639px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Presence of organised crime by department, mapped against gold and critical minerals sites. Source: FIP, UNODC SIMCI, GFIâCEALDES.</figcaption></figure> 604 605 606 607<div style="height:48px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 608 609 610 611<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-color" style="color:#013893">The fiscal stakes</h2> 612 613 614 615<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In 2025, critical minerals generated 443 billion pesos (about US$110 million) in royalties and corporate income tax, with nickel accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total. Gold alone generated 2.6 trillion (about US$630 million) â more than all critical minerals combined.</p> 616 617 618 619<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 620 621 622 623<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2000" height="826" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom.png" alt="Estimated 2025 tax revenue from the main critical minerals: nickel 325 billion pesos, zinc 36, copper 31, silver 29, platinum 15" class="wp-image-584" srcset="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom.png 2000w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-300x124.png 300w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-1024x423.png 1024w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-768x317.png 768w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-1536x635.png 1536w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-2048x846.png 2048w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-700x289.png 700w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-1500x620.png 1500w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100v
623w, 2000px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Estimated tax revenue by mineral, 2025. Source: Fedesarrollo, based on ANM, UPME, DANE and DIAN data.</figcaption></figure> 624 625 626 627<div style="height:32px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 628 629 630 631<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Because the mining cycle runs 15 to 22 years, licensing and regulatory decisions taken in the next five years will not show in 2030 revenue â but they largely determine whether Colombia reaches the ambitious scenario by 2050 or stays on the conservative path. Under the copper benchmark, in which production reaches 500,000 tonnes by 2050, the net present value of mining revenue reaches 189 trillion pesos (about US$46 billion), 10.2% of GDP.</p> 632 633 634 635<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 636 637 638 639<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2000" height="834" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom.png" alt="Two charts: annual revenue from critical minerals to 2050 under conservative, moderate and ambitious scenarios, reaching 1,849 billion pesos in the ambitious case; and net present value of revenue 2026 to 2050 rising from 118 to 189 trillion pesos across scenarios" class="wp-image-585" srcset="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom.png 2000w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-300x125.png 300w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-1024x427.png 1024w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-768x320.png 768w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-1536x641.png 1536w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-2048x854.png 2048w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-700x292.png 700w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-1500x626.png 1500w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Revenue scenarios and net present value to 2050. Source: Fedesarrollo.</figcaption></figure> 640 641 642 643<div style="height:48px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 644 645 646 647<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:6px;font-size:12px;letter-spacing:0.6px;text-transform:uppercase">From the report</p> 648 649 650 651<p class="has-luminous-vivid-amber-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:0px;font-size:19px;font-style:italic;line-height:1.55">With gold, criminal capture arrived before the institutions did. With copper, niobium and tantalum, the window is still open.</p> 652 653 654 655<div style="height:28px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 656 657 658 659<div class="wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> 660<div class="wp-block-button"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-background wp-element-button" href="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Policy-document-fiscal-revenue-organized-crime-and-critical-minerals-in-Colombia.pdf" style="border-radius:0px;background-color:#013893"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)" class="has-inline-color has-white-color">Read the full report (PDF)</mark></a></div> 661 662 663 664<div class="wp-block-button"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-background wp-element-button" href="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/regulando-para-el-estado-es-4.pdf" style="border-radius:0px;background-color:#013893" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)" class="has-inline-color has-white-color">Edición en español (PDF)</mark></a></div> 665</div> 666 667 668 669<div style="height:18px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> 670 671 672 673<p class="has-contrast-2-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="font-size:14px">Authors: Jairo GarcÃa, Nicolás Peña Tenjo and Enrique Sanz Posse. Bogotá, 2026.</p> 674 675 </div> 676 </div> 677 </div> 678</div> 679 680<footer class="c-footer section-purple "> 681 682 <div class="container-fluid"> 683 <div class="row "> 684 <div class="col-12 u-text-center"> 685 <div class="u-nav footer__row"> 686 <div class="footer__brand"> 687 <a href="https://loomstrategy.org" class="footer__logo-link d-block"><img class="footer__logo" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/themes/loom/images/logo-white.png?v=1" alt="logo"></a> 688 <nav class="footer__nav"> 689 <ul id="menu-footer" class="footer__menu"><li id="menu-item-346" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-privacy-policy menu-item-346"><a rel="privacy-policy" href="https://loomstrategy.org/privacy-policy/">Privacy Policy</a></li> 690<li id="menu-item-358" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-post menu-item-358"><a href="https://loomstrategy.org/loom-is-supported-by-our-common-home-and-the-new-energy-industrial-strategy-center/"><p style="font-size: 0.75em; color: #888;">Loom is supported by Our Common Home and the New Energy Industrial Strategy Center.</p></a></li> 691</ul> </nav> 692 </div> 693 694 <div class="footer__right">
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