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307/*# sourceURL=https://loomstrategy.org/wp-includes/blocks/image/style.min.css */
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309<style id="wp-block-buttons-inline-css">
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313<style id="wp-block-columns-inline-css">
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315/*# sourceURL=https://loomstrategy.org/wp-includes/blocks/columns/style.min.css */
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317<style id="wp-block-spacer-inline-css">
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323/*! This file is auto-generated */
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333
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463<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Regulating for the State, not for crime</h1>
464
465
466
467<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Colombia&#8217;s subsoil holds minerals the energy transition depends on. The question this report puts is not whether Colombia mines, but who the mining is organised for: the State and communities, or the criminal networks already embedded in the gold chain.</strong></p>
468
469
470
471<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Produced by Fedesarrollo with Loom Strategy Centre, <em>Regulating for the State, not for crime</em> sets out the fiscal stakes of Colombia&#8217;s critical minerals.</p>
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474
475<div style="height:32px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
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479<div class="wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex">
480<div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow">
481<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="font-size:12px;letter-spacing:0.6px;text-transform:uppercase">Revenue to 2050</p>
482
483
484
485<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:2px;margin-bottom:2px;font-size:40px;font-weight:600;line-height:1.15">10–19tn <span style="font-size:20px;font-weight:500">pesos</span></p>
486
487
488
489<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px"><p style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px;color:#6b7280">≈ US$2.4–4.6bn</p></p>
490</div>
491
492
493
494<div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow">
495<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="font-size:12px;letter-spacing:0.6px;text-transform:uppercase">Illicit gold, 2025</p>
496
497
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499<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:2px;margin-bottom:2px;font-size:40px;font-weight:600;line-height:1.15">32–34tn <span style="font-size:20px;font-weight:500">pesos</span></p>
500
501
502
503<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px"><p style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px;color:#6b7280">≈ US$8bn</p></p>
504</div>
505
506
507
508<div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow">
509<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="font-size:12px;letter-spacing:0.6px;text-transform:uppercase">China refines</p>
510
511
512
513<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:2px;margin-bottom:2px;font-size:40px;font-weight:600;line-height:1.15">60–90%</p>
514
515
516
517<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px"><p style="margin-top:0px;font-size:13px;color:#6b7280">of key transition minerals</p></p>
518</div>
519</div>
520
521
522
523<div style="height:32px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
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525
526
527<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Potential revenue from critical minerals to 2050 is equivalent to between 10 and 13 years of the environment ministry&#8217;s budget. Gross revenue from illicit gold in 2025 reached about 1.9% of GDP — above the fourth-quarter sales of Ecopetrol, Colombia&#8217;s state oil company — none of it taxed. China refines the bulk of the principal transition minerals, and the drive in Washington and Brussels to diversify away from that c
527oncentration opens a window for suppliers with verifiable chains.</p>
528
529
530
531<div style="height:32px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
532
533
534
535<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="1610" height="302" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1.png" alt="Bar comparison showing illicit gold gross income in 2025, around 33 trillion pesos, against Ecopetrol's Q4 2025 sales of 28.8 trillion pesos" class="wp-image-572" srcset="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1.png 1610w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-300x56.png 300w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-1024x192.png 1024w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-768x144.png 768w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-1536x288.png 1536w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-700x131.png 700w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-gold-vs-ecopetrol-1-1500x281.png 1500w" sizes="(max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Fedesarrollo.</figcaption></figure>
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537
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539<div style="height:32px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
540
541
542
543<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The report&#8217;s starting point is where the money actually sits. Enforcement today concentrates on extraction, the lowest-value link in the chain, while the structural margins accrue downstream, among intermediaries, traders and exporters. Dismantling one link without touching the others does not reduce criminal income; it redistributes it.</p>
544
545
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547<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
548
549
550
551<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="1610" height="645" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1.png" alt="Five stages of the illicit extraction chain from exploration to laundering, showing the larger criminal margins in commercialisation and laundering rather than extraction" class="wp-image-571" srcset="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1.png 1610w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-300x120.png 300w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-1024x410.png 1024w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-768x308.png 768w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-1536x615.png 1536w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-700x280.png 700w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-value-chain-1-1500x601.png 1500w" sizes="(max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Where the criminal margin sits across the extraction chain. Source: Fedesarrollo.</figcaption></figure>
552
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555<div style="height:48px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
556
557
558
559<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-color" style="color:#013893">Findings</h2>
560
561
562
563<div style="height:8px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
564
565
566
567<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">1.</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;The revenue at stake in critical minerals is substantial — and a slice of it is already leaking to organised crime.</p>
568
569
570
571<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">2.</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;What happens in the next five years will determine 2050 revenue. The window is open now.</p>
572
573
574
575<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">3.</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;Crime runs the length of the gold chain and is now moving into critical minerals — copper, niobium, tantalum — before the State has measured its footprint.</p>
576
577
578
579<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">4.</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;It is already on the ground where critical minerals sit: Guainía, Vich
579ada and the Venezuelan border along the Guiana Shield.</p>
580
581
582
583<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">5.</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;Illicit mining does more than skim rents. It poisons rivers and entrenches criminal governance that erodes national security.</p>
584
585
586
587<p class="wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:18px"><strong style="color:#d4a84b">6.</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;Banning formal mining backfires. It hands the ground to operators who answer to no environmental, tax or labour rules.</p>
588
589
590
591<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
592
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595<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The two criminal economies do not share a geography. Illicit gold is consolidated in a western and central arc through Antioquia, Chocó and southern Bolívar. Critical minerals sit in the eastern borderlands, Vichada and Guainía, where documented seizures trace a corridor connecting Venezuela&#8217;s Orinoco Mining Arc to Colombian ports — and where armed groups are already positioned before extraction has properly begun.</p>
596
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599<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
600
601
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603<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="1639" height="973" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1.png" alt="Map of Colombia showing armed-group presence by department, illicit gold concentrated in the west and critical minerals activity along the eastern border with Venezuela" class="wp-image-573" srcset="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1.png 1639w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-300x178.png 300w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-1024x608.png 1024w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-768x456.png 768w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-1536x912.png 1536w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-700x416.png 700w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-map-1-1500x890.png 1500w" sizes="(max-width: 1639px) 100vw, 1639px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Presence of organised crime by department, mapped against gold and critical minerals sites. Source: FIP, UNODC SIMCI, GFI–CEALDES.</figcaption></figure>
604
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607<div style="height:48px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
608
609
610
611<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-color" style="color:#013893">The fiscal stakes</h2>
612
613
614
615<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In 2025, critical minerals generated 443 billion pesos (about US$110 million) in royalties and corporate income tax, with nickel accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total. Gold alone generated 2.6 trillion (about US$630 million) — more than all critical minerals combined.</p>
616
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619<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
620
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622
623<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2000" height="826" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom.png" alt="Estimated 2025 tax revenue from the main critical minerals: nickel 325 billion pesos, zinc 36, copper 31, silver 29, platinum 15" class="wp-image-584" srcset="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom.png 2000w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-300x124.png 300w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-1024x423.png 1024w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-768x317.png 768w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-1536x635.png 1536w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-2048x846.png 2048w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-700x289.png 700w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-revenue-2025-loom-1500x620.png 1500w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100v
623w, 2000px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Estimated tax revenue by mineral, 2025. Source: Fedesarrollo, based on ANM, UPME, DANE and DIAN data.</figcaption></figure>
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627<div style="height:32px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
628
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631<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Because the mining cycle runs 15 to 22 years, licensing and regulatory decisions taken in the next five years will not show in 2030 revenue — but they largely determine whether Colombia reaches the ambitious scenario by 2050 or stays on the conservative path. Under the copper benchmark, in which production reaches 500,000 tonnes by 2050, the net present value of mining revenue reaches 189 trillion pesos (about US$46 billion), 10.2% of GDP.</p>
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635<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
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639<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2000" height="834" src="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom.png" alt="Two charts: annual revenue from critical minerals to 2050 under conservative, moderate and ambitious scenarios, reaching 1,849 billion pesos in the ambitious case; and net present value of revenue 2026 to 2050 rising from 118 to 189 trillion pesos across scenarios" class="wp-image-585" srcset="https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom.png 2000w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-300x125.png 300w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-1024x427.png 1024w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-768x320.png 768w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-1536x641.png 1536w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-2048x854.png 2048w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-700x292.png 700w, https://loomstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fedesarrollo-scenarios-2050-loom-1500x626.png 1500w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Revenue scenarios and net present value to 2050. Source: Fedesarrollo.</figcaption></figure>
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643<div style="height:48px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>
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646
647<p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-bottom:6px;font-size:12px;letter-spacing:0.6px;text-transform:uppercase">From the report</p>
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650
651<p class="has-luminous-vivid-amber-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="margin-top:0px;font-size:19px;font-style:italic;line-height:1.55">With gold, criminal capture arrived before the institutions did. With copper, niobium and tantalum, the window is still open.</p>
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658
659<div class="wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex">
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673<p class="has-contrast-2-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph" style="font-size:14px">Authors: Jairo García, Nicolás Peña Tenjo and Enrique Sanz Posse. Bogotá, 2026.</p>
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