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1</head><body class="geist_a71539c9-module__T19VSG__variable geist_mono_8d43a2aa-module__8Li5zG__variable antialiased bg-background text-white"><div hidden=""><!--$--><!--/$--></div><div class="min-h-screen bg-background text-white font-mono overflow-x-hidden"><header class="fixed top-0 inset-x-0 z-50 border-b border-white/10 bg-background"><div class="mx-auto flex max-w-7xl items-center justify-between px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8 py-2"><a class="shrink-0 group" href="/"><span class="font-mono text-base font-semibold text-white tracking-tight">SimpleFunctions</span></a><nav class="hidden md:flex items-center gap-5 text-sm font-medium text-zinc-400"><div class="flex items-center"><a class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 text-zinc-100 hover:text-white transition-colors hover:underline underline-offset-4 decoration-zinc-500" href="https://docs.simplefunctions.dev"><svg width="12" height="12" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M3 2 L7 2 L9 4 L9 10 L3 10 Z"></path><line x1="4.5" y1="6" x2="7.5" y2="6"></line><line x1="4.5" y1="8" x2="7" y2="8"></line></svg>Docs</a><span class="text-zinc-600 mx-2.5 select-none" aria-hidden="true">·</span><a class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 text-zinc-100 hover:text-white transition-colors hover:underline underline-offset-4 decoration-zinc-500" href="/pricing">Pricing</a></div><span class="h-4 w-px bg-zinc-700/60" aria-hidden="true"></span><div class="relative"><button class="transition-colors hover:text-white flex items-center gap-1 px-1">Products<svg width="9" height="9" viewBox="0 0 8 8" fill="none" class="mt-px"><path d="M2 3L4 5L6 3" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></button></div><div class="relative"><button class="transition-colors hover:text-white flex items-center gap-1 px-1">Research<svg width="9" height="9" viewBox="0 0 8 8" fill="none" class="mt-px"><path d="M2 3L4 5L6 3" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></button></div><span aria-hidden="true" class="invisible bg-white text-black px-4 py-1.5 text-xs font-semibold rounded-sm">Dashboard</span></nav><button class="md:hidden relative z-50 flex items-center justify-center w-9 h-9 -mr-1.5" aria-label="Open menu"><svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 16 16" fill="none"><path d="M1 4H15M1 8H15M1 12H15" stroke="#a1a1aa" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></button></div></header><main class="mx-auto max-w-7xl px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8 overflow-x-hidden"><section class="bg-background -mx-4 border-b border-zinc-900/80 px-4 pt-20 pb-10 sm:-mx-6 sm:px-6 md:pt-24 lg:-mx-8 lg:px-8"><div class="mx-auto grid max-w-7xl grid-cols-1 gap-7 md:grid-cols-[minmax(0,11fr)_minmax(320px,7fr)] md:items-start lg:gap-10"><div class="min-w-0 md:pt-9 lg:pt-10"><div class="max-w-[880px]"><h1 class="font-mono text-[34px] leading-[1.04] text-zinc-100 sm:text-[46px] lg:text-[52px]">Compress, Compute, Execute.</h1><p class="mt-4 max-w-3xl text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-zinc-500 sm:text-[15px]">Prediction markets are where real money prices elections, the economy, and world events — minute by minute. SimpleFunctions makes sense of all of it and hands you clear signals, live odds, and the tools to act — for funds, trading desks, and newsrooms.</p></div><div class="mt-5 max-w-4xl"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-3 gap-y-2"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2.5"><a class="group inline-flex h-10 items-center justify-center rounded-sm bg-white px-4 text-[12px] font-semibold text-black shadow-[0_14px_34px_rgba(0,0,0,0.28)] transition-colors hover:bg-zinc-200 sm:h-11 sm:px-5 sm:text-[13px]" href="https://docs.simplefunctions.dev"><span>Read docs</span><span class="ml-3 text-zinc-500 transition-transform group-hover:translate-x-0.5 group-hover:text-black">→</span></a></div><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><code class="rounded px-3 py-2 text-xs select-all truncate border bg-zinc-900 border-zinc-800 text-zinc-300">npm install -g @spfunctions/cli</code><button class="transition-colors p-1 shrink-0 text-zinc-500 hover:text-white" title="Copy to clipboard"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="13" height="13" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><rect x="9" y="9" width="13" height="13" rx="2" ry="2"></rect><path d="M5 15H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V4a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h9a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v1"></path></svg></button></div></div></div></div><div class="min-w-0 md:pt-1"><div class="hidden justify-center md:flex"><div class="aspect-square w-full max-w-[360px]"><canvas style="width:100%;height:100%;contain:layout paint size;opacity:0;transition:opacity 1s ease"></canvas></div></div></div></div><div class="mx-auto mt-7 max-w-7xl"><div class="w-full"><div class="border-y border-zinc-900/90 py-2.5"><div class="grid gap-3 lg:grid-cols-[minmax(0,1fr)_380px] xl:grid-cols-[minmax(0,1fr)_460px] 2xl:gr
1id-cols-[minmax(0,1fr)_520px] lg:items-start lg:gap-5"><div class="min-w-0"><p class="max-w-[86ch] text-[12px] leading-relaxed text-zinc-200 sm:text-[13px]"><span>The probability of a US recession occurring by the end of 2026 is currently priced at </span><strong class="text-emerald-700 font-bold">7%</strong><span>, while the likelihood of a recession by the end of 2027 is notably higher at </span><strong class="text-emerald-700 font-bold">34%</strong><span>. Recent economic data indicates a stable environment, with </span><strong class="font-semibold text-white">prediction markets</strong><span> currently showing a </span><strong class="text-emerald-700 font-bold">90%</strong><span> probability that Q3 2026 real GDP growth will exceed </span><strong class="text-emerald-700 font-bold">2.0%</strong><span>.</span></p><div class="mt-2 grid max-w-[86ch] border-y border-zinc-900/90 lg:grid-cols-2 lg:divide-x lg:divide-zinc-900/90"><a class="grid h-7 grid-cols-[18px_34px_minmax(0,1fr)_auto_12px] items-center gap-2 border-b border-zinc-900/90 text-[11px] transition-colors last:border-b-0 hover:bg-zinc-950 lg:border-b-0 lg:px-3 lg:first:pl-0 lg:last:pr-0" href="/markets/us-recession-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d"><span class="inline-flex h-4 w-4 items-center justify-center rounded-sm border text-[9px] border-purple-500/25 bg-purple-500/8 text-purple-300">P</span><span class="text-right font-semibold tabular-nums text-zinc-100">7<!-- -->¢</span><span class="truncate text-zinc-400">US recession by end of 2026?</span><span class="tabular-nums text-zinc-500">$2.3M</span><span class="text-zinc-700">↗</span></a><a class="grid h-7 grid-cols-[18px_34px_minmax(0,1fr)_auto_12px] items-center gap-2 border-b border-zinc-900/90 text-[11px] transition-colors last:border-b-0 hover:bg-zinc-950 lg:border-b-0 lg:px-3 lg:first:pl-0 lg:last:pr-0" href="/markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-15-in-q3-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26oct30-t1.5"><span class="inline-flex h-4 w-4 items-center justify-center rounded-sm border text-[9px] border-cyan-500/25 bg-cyan-500/8 text-cyan-300">K</span><span class="text-right font-semibold tabular-nums text-zinc-100">94<!-- -->¢</span><span class="truncate text-zinc-400">Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?</span><span class="tabular-nums text-zinc-500">$14K</span><span class="text-zinc-700">↗</span></a></div></div><div class="min-w-0 lg:border-l lg:border-zinc-900/90 lg:pl-5 lg:pt-0.5"><form class="relative"><div class="flex items-center gap-2.5 rounded-sm border px-3.5 transition-colors h-8 border-zinc-900 bg-zinc-950/40 focu
1s-within:border-zinc-700 focus-within:bg-zinc-950/70"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" class="w-4 h-4 shrink-0 text-zinc-500"><circle cx="11" cy="11" r="7" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2"></circle><path d="m20 20-3.5-3.5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg><input type="text" placeholder="US 2026 recession?" class="min-w-0 flex-1 appearance-none border-0 bg-transparent shadow-none outline-none ring-0 [outline:0] focus:outline-none focus:ring-0 focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-0 font-mono text-[12px] sm:text-[13px] text-zinc-100 placeholder-zinc-700" value="US recession"/><button type="button" aria-label="prepared queries" class="shrink-0 transition-colors focus:outline-none text-zinc-700 hover:text-zinc-400"><svg class="w-4 h-4 transition-transform " viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none"><path d="M3 5L6 8L9 5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"></path></svg></button></div></form><div class="mt-1.5 flex flex-wrap items-center justify-start gap-x-2 gap-y-1 text-[10px] text-zinc-600 lg:justify-end"><span class="tabular-nums">32.0<!-- -->s</span><span class="text-zinc-800">·</span><span><span class="tabular-nums">5</span> factors</span><span class="text-zinc-800">·</span><span>Kalshi <span class="tabular-nums">5</span> + <!-- -->Polymarket <span class="tabular-nums">2</span></span><button type="button" class="transition-colors hover:text-zinc-300">− details</button><button type="button" class="transition-colors hover:text-zinc-300">clear</button></div><div class="mt-2 border-t border-zinc-900/90 pt-2 text-[10px] text-zinc-500"><div class="space-y-1"><div class="flex items-start gap-2"><span class="mt-[1px] shrink-0 text-zinc-700">·</span><span class="leading-relaxed"><span><span></span><span class="text-zinc-400">7%</span><span> recession risk for 2026</span></span></span></div><div class="flex items-start gap-2"><span class="mt-[1px] shrink-0 text-zinc-700">·</span><span class="leading-relaxed"><span><span></span><span class="text-zinc-400">34%</span><span> recession risk for 2027</span></span></span></div><div class="flex items-start gap-2"><span class="mt-[1px] shrink-0 text-zinc-700">·</span><span class="leading-relaxed"><span><span></span><span class="text-emerald-600">90%</span><span> chance of &gt;</span><span class="text-zinc-400">2%</span><span> Q3 GDP growth</span></span></span></div><div class="flex items-start gap-2"><span class="mt-[1px] shrink-0 text-zinc-700">·</span><span class="leading-relaxed"><span><span></span><span class="text-zinc-400">4.2%</span><span> unemployment rate</span></span></span></div><div class="flex items-start gap-2"><span class="mt-[1px] shrink-0 text-zinc-700">·</span><span class="leading-relaxed"><span><span></span><span class="text-zinc-400">0.51%</span><span> 10Y-2Y Treasury spread</span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></section><section class="border-y border-zinc-800/80 bg-background -mx-4 sm:-mx-6 lg:-mx-8 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8 py-10 sm:py-12 text-zinc-100 font-mono"><div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto"><div class="pb-5 mb-px border-b border-zinc-900/70"><div class="min-w-0"><h2 class="text-xl md:text-2xl font-light leading-tight text-zinc-50">The market, computed — live.</h2><p class="mt-2 text-[13px] text-zinc-500 max-w-2xl leading-relaxed">Real money moves these markets every minute. Here it is, computed live — the odds, where the crowd splits, the sharpest mispricings, and how our calls have held up.</p></div></div><div class="grid grid-cols-1 sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-px bg-zinc-900/80 ring-1 ring-zinc-900/80"><a class="group relative block bg-zinc-950/60 hover:bg-zinc-900/70 transition-colors p-4 sm:p-5 lg:p-6 min-h-[170px] sm:min-h-[200px]" href="/markets"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-3 mb-3 sm:mb-4"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-500 uppercase tracking-widest">Markets</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-50 tabular-nums leading-none text-3xl">—</div><div class="text-[11px] text-zinc-500 mt-2 leading-snug">universe</div></a><a class="group relative block bg-zinc-950/60 hover:bg-zinc-900/70 transition-colors p-4 sm:p-5 lg:p-6 min-h-[170px] sm:min-h-[200px]" href="/odds"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-3 mb-3 sm:mb-4"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-500 uppercase tracking-widest">Odds</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-50 tabular-nums leading-none text-3xl">0</div><div class="text-[11px] text-zinc-500 mt-2 leading-snug">contested of 0</div><div class="mt-4 sm:mt-5"><div class="flex items-end gap-[2px] h-[22px]"><div style="height:1px;background-color:#52525b80" class="flex-1"></div><div style="height:1px;background-color:#52525b80" class="flex-1"></div><div style="height:1px;background-color:#52525b80" class="flex-1"></div><div style="height:1px;background-color:#10b981" class="flex-1"></div><div style="height:1px;background-color:#10b981" class="flex-1"></div><div style="height:1px;background-color:#10b981" class="flex-1"></div><div style="height:1px;background-color:#10b981" class="flex-1"></div><div style="height:1px;background-color:#52525b80" class="flex-1"></div><div style="height:1px;background-color:#52525b80" class="flex-1"></div><div style="height:1px;background-color:#52525b80" class="flex-1"></div></div></div><div class="mt-3 sm:mt-4 pt-2.5 sm:pt-3 border-t border-zinc-900/60 flex flex-col gap-1.5"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-3 text-[10px]"><span class="text-zinc-600 uppercase tracking-wider truncate">Contested band</span><span class="text-zinc-400 tabular-nums truncate text-right">30–70%</span></div></div></a><a class="group relative block bg-zinc-950/60 hover:bg-zinc-900/70 transition-colors p-4 sm:p-5 lg:p-6 min-h-[170px] sm:min-h-[200px]" href="/screen"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-3 mb-3 sm:mb-4"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-500 uppercase tracking-widest">Screen</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-50 tabular-nums leading-none text-3xl">—</div><div class="text-[11px] text-zinc-500 mt-2 leading-snug">Top implied yield</div></a><a class="group relative block bg-zinc-950/60 hover:bg-zinc-900/70 transition-colors p-4 sm:p-5 lg:p-6 min-h-[170px] sm:min-h-[200px]" href="/calibration"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-3 mb-3 sm:mb-4"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-500 uppercase tracking-widest">Calibration</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-50 tabular-nums leading-none text-3xl">2,029</div><div class="text-[11px] text-zinc-500 mt-2 leading-snug">open predictions tracking</div><div class="mt-4 sm:mt-5"><div class="flex items-center gap-[3px] h-[22px]"><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style="background-color:#10b981"></span><span class="ml-2 text-[10px] text-zinc-600 tabular-nums">+<!-- -->
12,029<!-- --> pending</span></div></div><div class="mt-3 sm:mt-4 pt-2.5 sm:pt-3 border-t border-zinc-900/60 flex flex-col gap-1.5"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-3 text-[10px]"><span class="text-zinc-600 uppercase tracking-wider truncate">Brier</span><span class="text-zinc-400 tabular-nums truncate text-right">0.253</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-3 text-[10px]"><span class="text-zinc-600 uppercase tracking-wider truncate">Hit rate</span><span class="text-zinc-400 tabular-nums truncate text-right">100%</span></div></div></a></div><div class="mt-8 pt-5 border-t border-zinc-900/60 flex items-center gap-x-5 gap-y-2 flex-wrap text-[10px] text-zinc-500 uppercase tracking-widest"><a class="hover:text-zinc-300" href="/markets">Markets</a><a class="hover:text-zinc-300" href="/odds">Odds</a><a class="hover:text-zinc-300" href="/screen">Screen</a><a class="hover:text-zinc-300" href="/calibration">Calibration</a><span class="text-zinc-700">·</span><a class="hover:text-zinc-300" href="/api/public/odds">JSON ↗</a></div></div></section><section class="py-8"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 md:gap-16 items-stretch"><div><div class="bg-black border border-zinc-800/40 rounded-sm overflow-hidden font-mono text-[10px] leading-[1.7]"><div class="px-3 py-3"><div class="mb-1.5 truncate"><span class="text-zinc-600">$ </span><span class="text-zinc-300">curl simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world</span></div><div class="text-zinc-800 overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap">────────────────────────────────────────────────────</div><div class="mt-1 space-y-1.5"><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:85%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:72%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:90%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:78%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:95%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:68%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:82%"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="flex flex-col justify-center items-end h-full"><div class="max-w-md w-full"><p class="font-mono text-xl text-white leading-snug mb-8">One API call that compresses the world&#x27;s markets into 800 tokens.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-4 flex-wrap"><button class="relative text-left group"><code class="font-mono transition-colors text-sm text-zinc-200 group-hover:text-white">curl -L simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world</code><span class="absolute left-0 top-full mt-1 text-[9px] whitespace-nowrap transition-opacity text-zinc-700 opacity-0 group-hover:opacity-100">paste it in your terminal</span></button><a class="inline-flex items-center text-xs text-zinc-400 hover:text-white border border-zinc-700 hover:border-zinc-500 px-3 py-1.5 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap" href="/world">View /world →</a></div></div></div></div></section><div class="my-6 border-t border-zinc-800/30"></div><section class="py-8"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 md:gap-16 items-stretch"><div class="flex flex-col justify-center items-start h-full"><div class="max-w-md w-full"><p class="font-mono text-xl text-white leading-snug mb-7">Thesis-Based Realtime Market Monitoring.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-4 flex-wrap"><button class="relative text-left group"><code class="font-mono transition-colors text-sm text-zinc-200 group-hover:text-white">npx -y @spfunctions/cli agent</code><span class="absolute left-0 top-full mt-1 text-[9px] whitespace-nowrap transition-opacity text-zinc-700 opacity-0 group-hover:opacity-100">paste it in your terminal</span></button><a class="inline-flex items-center text-xs text-zinc-400 hover:text-white border border-zinc-700 hover:border-zinc-500 px-3 py-1.5 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap" href="/ai-agents">View /ai-agents →</a><a class="inline-flex items-center text-xs text-zinc-500 hover:text-zinc-300 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap" href="https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/reference/concepts">Read the thesis docs</a></div></div></div><div class="font-mono text-[11px]"><div class="mb-4"><span class="text-emerald-500">&gt;<!-- --> </span><span class="text-zinc-300 break-words whitespace-normal">find contracts yielding over 300% annualized, expiring in more than 30 days, with daily volume above $50,
1000. set triggers to buy. only execute if oil is trading above $95.</span></div><div class="text-zinc-500 mb-3">Screened 4,200 active markets. 3 match your criteria.</div><div class="flex items-baseline py-1"><span class="text-zinc-400 flex-1">KXRECSSNBER-26</span><span class="text-zinc-500 tabular-nums">42¢</span><span class="text-zinc-600 ml-3">buy below 40¢</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline py-1"><span class="text-zinc-400 flex-1">KXFEDCHAIRCONFIRM</span><span class="text-zinc-500 tabular-nums">95¢</span><span class="text-emerald-400/70 ml-3">filled 500 @ 94¢</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline py-1"><span class="text-zinc-400 flex-1">KXOIL-100DEC25</span><span class="text-zinc-500 tabular-nums">61¢</span><span class="text-zinc-600 ml-3">buy above 65¢</span></div><div class="text-zinc-500 mt-4 leading-relaxed">All three intents are armed. Oil gate active — I won&#x27;t execute until WTI clears $95. Checking every 60 seconds. I&#x27;ll send you a Telegram message when something fills or the gate condition changes.</div><div class="mt-4"><span class="text-emerald-500">&gt;<!-- --> </span><span class="text-zinc-700 animate-pulse">|</span></div></div></div></section><div class="my-6 border-t border-zinc-800/30"></div><section class="py-8"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 md:gap-16 items-stretch"><div class="font-mono text-[11px]"><div class="text-zinc-500 mb-3">$ sf portfolio enable</div><div class="text-zinc-600 mb-4 leading-relaxed">Kalshi API key encrypted and stored. Schedule set. Dry-run mode active.</div><div class="text-zinc-500 mb-2">$ sf portfolio view add</div><div class="text-zinc-600 mb-4 leading-relaxed pl-4 border-l border-zinc-800">&quot;Recession risk is underpriced&quot;<br/>--conviction 5 --horizon 2026-12-31</div><div class="text-zinc-500 mb-2">$ sf portfolio trigger</div><div class="text-zinc-600 leading-relaxed"><div class="flex items-baseline py-0.5"><span class="text-zinc-400 flex-1">SCANNED</span><span class="text-zinc-500 tabular-nums">4,200 markets</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline py-0.5"><span class="text-zinc-400 flex-1">POSITIONS</span><span class="text-zinc-500 tabular-nums">12 active</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline py-0.5"><span class="text-zinc-400 flex-1">ACTION</span><span class="text-emerald-400/70 tabular-nums">+2 entries, 1 exit</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline py-0.5"><span class="text-zinc-400 flex-1">HANDOFF</span><span class="text-zinc-500 tabular-nums">written for next tick</span></div></div><div class="text-zinc-600 mt-4 leading-relaxed">7 risk gates passed. Handoff note saved. Next tick in 12h.</div></div><div class="flex flex-col justify-center items-end h-full"><div class="max-w-md w-full"><p class="font-mono text-xl text-white leading-snug mb-7">Autonomous Portfolio Management with Mechanical Risk Gates.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-4 flex-wrap"><button class="relative text-left group"><code class="font-mono transition-colors text-sm text-zinc-200 group-hover:text-white">sf portfolio enable</code><span class="absolute left-0 top-full mt-1 text-[9px] whitespace-nowrap transition-opacity text-zinc-700 opacity-0 group-hover:opacity-100">paste it in your terminal</span></button><a class="inline-flex items-center text-xs text-zinc-400 hover:text-white border border-zinc-700 hover:border-zinc-500 px-3 py-1.5 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap" href="/portfolio-autopilot">View /portfolio-autopilot →</a><a class="inline-flex items-center text-xs text-zinc-500 hover:text-zinc-300 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap" href="https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/guides/portfolio-autopilot">Read the portfolio docs</a></div></div></div></div></section><div class="my-6 border-t border-zinc-800/30"></div><section class="py-8"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 md:gap-16 items-stretch"><div><div class="bg-black border border-zinc-800/40 rounded-sm overflow-hidden font-mono text-[10px] leading-[1.7]"><div class="px-3 py-3"><div class="mb-1.5 truncate"><span class="text-zinc-600">$ </span><span class="text-zinc-300">loading index...</span></div><div class="text-zinc-800 overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap">────────────────────────────────────────────────────</div><div class="mt-1 space-y-1.5"><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:85%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:72%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:90%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:78%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:95%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:68%"></div><div class="h-[11px] bg-zinc-900 rounded-sm animate-pulse" style="width:82%"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="flex flex-col justify-center items-end h-full"><div class="max-w-md w-full"><p class="font-mono text-xl text-white leading-snug mb-7">Prediction Market Index.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-4 flex-wrap"><button class="relative text-left group"><code class="font-mono transition-colors text-sm text-zinc-200 group-hover:text-white">curl simplefunctions.dev/api/public/index</code><span class="absolute left-0 top-full mt-1 text-[9px] whitespace-nowrap transition-opacity text-zinc-700 opacity-0 group-hover:opacity-100">paste it in your terminal</span></button><a class="inline-flex items-center text-xs text-zinc-400 hover:text-white border border-zinc-700 hover:border-zinc-500 px-3 py-1.5 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap" href="/prediction-market-index">View live index</a></div></div></div></div></section><div class="my-6 border-t border-zinc-800/30"></div><section class="py-8"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-[220px_1fr] gap-8 md:gap-14 items-start"><div class="flex md:flex-col gap-0 overflow-x-auto no-scrollbar"><button class="relative text-left text-sm font-mono py-3 pl-4 pr-3 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap shrink-0 flex items-baseline gap-3 text-zinc-100"><span class="absolute left-0 top-0 bottom-0 w-px transition-colors bg-emerald-400"></span><span class="text-[10px] tabular-nums shrink-0 text-emerald-400">01</span><span>Data Pipeline</span></button><button class="relative text-left text-sm font-mono py-3 pl-4 pr-3 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap shrink-0 flex items-baseline gap-3 text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-300"><span class="absolute left-0 top-0 bottom-0 w-px transition-colors bg-zinc-800/60"></span><span class="text-[10px] tabular-nums shrink-0 text-zinc-700">02</span><span>Quote Engine</span></button><button class="relative text-left text-sm font-mono py-3 pl-4 pr-3 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap shrink-0 flex items-baseline gap-3 text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-300"><span class="absolute left-0 top-0 bottom-0 w-px transition-colors bg-zinc-800/60"></span><span class="text-[10px] tabular-nums shrink-0 text-zinc-700">03</span><span>Thesis</span></button><button class="relative text-left text-sm font-mono py-3 pl-4 pr-3 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap shrink-0 flex items-baseline gap-3 text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-300"><span class="absolute left-0 top-0 bottom-0 w-px transition-colors bg-zinc-800/60"></span><span class="text-[10px] tabular-nums shrink-0 text-zinc-700">04</span><span>Prime Brokerage</span></button><button class="relative text-left text-sm font-mono py-3 pl-4 pr-3 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap shrink-0 flex items-baseline gap-3 text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-300"><span class="absolute left-0 top-0 bottom-0 w-px transition-colors bg-zinc-800/60"></span><span class="text-[10px] tabular-nums shrink-0 text-zinc-700">05</span><span>Derivatives</span></button></div><div class="min-h-[180px]"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-4 mb-5 flex-wrap"><p class="font-mono text-xl text-white leading-snug">Data Pipeline for makers and takers.</p><a class="inline-flex items-center text-xs text-zinc-400 hover:text-white border border-zinc-700 hover:border-zinc-500 px-3 py-1.5 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap" href="/screen">Open screener →</a></div><div class="space-y-3 text-sm text-zinc-500 leading-relaxed"><p>Real-time data feed across Kalshi and Polymarket. Every orderbook change, every price move, every resolution.</p><p>Screen endpoint filters thousands of active contracts by five quantitative indicators — implied yield, cliff risk, expected edge, liquidity score, and time decay.</p><p>Regime endpoint classifies each market as maker-favorable or taker-favorable based on spread, depth, and flow patterns.</p></div></div></div></div></section><div class="my-6 border-t border-zinc-800/30"></div><section class="py-8"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 md:gap-16 items-stretch"><div class="min-h-0 md:h-[300px] overflow-hidden order-2 md:order-1 flex items-center"><div class="w-full overflow-x-auto"><div class="font-mono text-[11px] space-y-1.5"><div class="flex items-baseline"><span class="text-zinc-500 w-24">Politics</span><span class="text-zinc-600 tabular-nums w-16 text-right mr-3">1,500</span><span class="tabular-nums w-12 text-right mr-2 text-emerald-400">0.007</span><span class="text-[10px] text-emerald-400/70">A+</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline"><span class="text-zinc-500 w-24">Sports</span><span class="text-zinc-600 tabular-nums w-16 text-right mr-3">110,000</span><span class="tabular-nums w-12 text-right mr-2 text-emerald-400">0.030</span><span class="text-[10px] text-emerald-400/70">A</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline"><span class="text-zinc-500 w-24">Climate</span><span class="text-zinc-600 tabular-nums w-16 text-right mr-3">8,800</span><span class="tabular-nums w-12 text-right mr-2 text-emerald-400">0.035</span><span class="text-[10px] text-emerald-400/70">A</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline"><span class="text-zinc-500 w-24">Esports</span><span class="text-zinc-600 tabular-nums w-16 text-right mr-3">6,900</span><span class="tabular-nums w-12 text-right mr-2 text-emerald-400">0.034</span><span class="text-[10px] text-emerald-400/70">A</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline"><span class="text-zinc-500 w-24">Crypto</span><span class="text-zinc-600 tabular-nums w-16 text-right mr-3">325,000</span><span class="tabular-nums w-12 text-right mr-2 text-amber-400">0.225</span><span class="text-[10px] text-amber-400/70">C</span></div><div class="flex items-baseline"><span class="text-zinc-500 w-24">Economics</span><span class="text-zinc-600 tabular-nums w-16 text-right mr-3">33,000</span><span class="tabular-nums w-12 text-right mr-2 text-red-400">0.372</span><span class="text-[10px] text-red-400/70">D</span></div><div class="text-zinc-600 text-[10px] mt-2">lower Brier = better calibrated · 0 = perfect · 0.25 = coin flip</div><a class="block text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors text-[10px] mt-1" href="/calibration">full calibration analysis →</a></div></div></div><div class="order-1 md:order-2 flex flex-col justify-center md:h-[300px]"><div class="max-w-md"><p class="font-mono text-xl text-white leading-snug mb-4">Platform Calibration.</p><p class="text-sm text-zinc-500 leading-relaxed">How well-calibrated are prediction markets? Brier score by category across 488,000 resolved contracts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-3 mt-7"><span class="font-mono text-[11px] tabular-nums"><span class="text-emerald-400">01</span><span class="text-zinc-700"> / <!-- -->04</span></span><div class="w-px h-3 bg-zinc-800/80 mx-1"></div><button aria-label="previous" class="inline-flex items-center justify-center w-7 h-7 border border-zinc-800 hover:border-zinc-500 text-zinc-500 hover:text-zinc-200 transition-colors">
1<svg width="10" height="10" viewBox="0 0 10 10" fill="none"><path d="M6 2L3 5L6 8" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.4" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"></path></svg></button><button aria-label="next" class="inline-flex items-center justify-center w-7 h-7 border border-zinc-800 hover:border-zinc-500 text-zinc-500 hover:text-zinc-200 transition-colors"><svg width="10" height="10" viewBox="0 0 10 10" fill="none"><path d="M4 2L7 5L4 8" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.4" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"></path></svg></button></div></div></div></div></section><div class="my-6 border-t border-zinc-800/30"></div><section class="py-8"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 md:gap-16 items-start"><div><div class="font-mono text-[11px] leading-[1.6]"><form><div class="flex items-center gap-2.5 bg-zinc-900/40 rounded px-3.5 py-3 mb-4 ring-1 ring-zinc-800/50 focus-within:ring-zinc-700/80 focus-within:bg-zinc-900/60 transition-all"><svg width="14" height="14" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" class="shrink-0 transition-colors text-zinc-500"><circle cx="11" cy="11" r="8"></circle><path d="m21 21-4.3-4.3"></path></svg><input type="text" placeholder="Search bills, nominations, policy..." class="flex-1 bg-transparent text-[12px] text-zinc-200 placeholder-zinc-600 focus:outline-none font-mono" value="tariff bill"/><button type="submit" aria-label="Submit" class="text-zinc-500 hover:text-zinc-200 transition-colors"><svg width="13" height="13" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M9 10V6a3 3 0 0 1 3-3h7v8H8m0 0 3-3m-3 3 3 3"></path></svg></button></div></form><div class="text-zinc-300 text-[12px] leading-[1.65] mb-3"><span>There are no pending legislative bills or nomination proceedings currently associated with a tariff bill in the provided data.</span></div><div class="flex flex-wrap gap-1.5 mb-5"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-400 bg-zinc-900/40 ring-1 ring-zinc-800/60 px-2 py-0.5 rounded-sm">No relevant bills</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-400 bg-zinc-900/40 ring-1 ring-zinc-800/60 px-2 py-0.5 rounded-sm">No legislative activity</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-400 bg-zinc-900/40 ring-1 ring-zinc-800/60 px-2 py-0.5 rounded-sm">Data unavailable</span></div><div class="mt-4"><button type="button" aria-expanded="false" class="flex items-baseline gap-2 w-full group cursor-pointer mb-2"><span class="text-zinc-600 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors text-[10px] w-3 text-left">▸</span><span class="text-[9px] uppercase tracking-[0.15em] text-zinc-600 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors">Markets</span><span class="text-[9px] tabular-nums text-zinc-700">5</span><span class="flex-1 border-b border-zinc-800/40 ml-1"></span></button></div><div class="flex items-center gap-3 mt-4 pt-3 border-t border-zinc-800/40 text-[10px]"><span class="text-zinc-500"><span class="tabular-nums text-emerald-400/80">5</span> markets</span><span class="text-zinc-700 tabular-nums">1.5<!-- -->s</span><button class="text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-300 transition-colors ml-auto">clear</button></div></div><a class="block text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors text-[10px] mt-2" href="/query-gov">query-gov API →</a></div><a class="group block" href="/query-gov"><div class="relative aspect-[16/10] w-full overflow-hidden ring-1 ring-zinc-800/60"><img alt="Pnyx — query-gov for agents" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="object-cover opacity-85 group-hover:opacity-100 transition-opacity" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns=&#x27;http://www.w3.org/2000/svg&#x27; %3E%3Cfilter id=&#x27;b&#x27; color-interpolation-filters=&#x27;sRGB&#x27;%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation=&#x27;20&#x27;/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values=&#x27;1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1&#x27; result=&#x27;s&#x27;/%3E%3CfeFlood x=&#x27;0&#x27; y=&#x27;0&#x27; width=&#x27;100%25&#x27; height=&#x27;100%25&#x27;
1/%3E%3CfeComposite operator=&#x27;out&#x27; in=&#x27;s&#x27;/%3E%3CfeComposite in2=&#x27;SourceGraphic&#x27;/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation=&#x27;20&#x27;/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Cimage width=&#x27;100%25&#x27; height=&#x27;100%25&#x27; x=&#x27;0&#x27; y=&#x27;0&#x27; preserveAspectRatio=&#x27;none&#x27; style=&#x27;filter: url(%23b);&#x27; href=&#x27;data:image/jpeg;base64,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&#x27;/%3E%3C/svg%3E&quot;)" src="/hero/query-gov-pnyx.webp"/><div class="absolute inset-0 bg-gradient-to-t from-background via-background/30 to-transparent"></div><div class="absolute bottom-0 left-0 right-0 p-5"><p class="font-mono text-xl text-white leading-snug mb-2">Congress.gov for agents.</p><p class="text-sm text-zinc-300 leading-relaxed">CLI + REST/API + MCP adapter for 425K bills, 538 members, and the prediction markets pricing each one.</p></div></div><span class="inline-flex items-center text-xs text-zinc-400 group-hover:text-white border border-zinc-700 group-hover:border-zinc-500 px-3 py-1.5 mt-4 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap">View /query-gov →</span></a></div></section><section class="py-8"><div class="border-t border-zinc-900/80 pt-8"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-px bg-zinc-800/70 ring-1 ring-zinc-800/70"><a class="group relative bg-zinc-950/75 hover:bg-zinc-900/80 transition-colors overflow-hidden" href="/event-probability-api"><div class="relative aspect-[16/10] w-full overflow-hidden"><img alt="Event Probability API" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="object-cover opacity-[0.88] transition duration-300 group-hover:scale-[1.015] group-hover:opacity-100" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns=&#x27;http://www.w3.org/2000/svg&#x27; %3E%3Cfilter id=&#x27;b&#x27; color-interpolation-filters=&#x27;sRGB&#x27;%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation=&#x27;20&#x27;/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values=&#x27;1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1&#x27; result=&#x27;s&#x27;/%3E%3CfeFlood x=&#x27;0&#x27; y=&#x27;0&#x27; width=&#x27;100%25&#x27; height=&#x27;100%25&#x27;/%3E%3CfeComposite operator=&#x27;out&#x27; in=&#x27;s&#x27;/%3E%3CfeComposite in2=&#x27;SourceGraphic&#x27;/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation=&#x27;20&#x27;/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Cimage width=&#x27;100%25&#x27; height=&#x27;100%25&#x27; x=&#x27;0&#x27; y=&#x27;0&#x27; preserveAspectRatio=&#x27;none&#x27; style=&#x27;filter: url(%23b);&#x27; href=&#x27;data:image/jpeg;base64,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&#x27;/%3E%3C/svg%3E&quot;)" sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 405px, (min-width: 768px) calc((100vw - 48px) / 3), calc(100vw - 32px)" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 32w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=48&amp;q=75 48w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 64w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=96&amp;q=75 96w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=128&amp;q=75 128w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=384&amp;q=75 384w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=640&amp;q=75 640w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=750&amp;q=75 750w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=828&amp;q=75 828w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=1080&amp;q=75 1080w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=1200&amp;q=75 1200w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75 1920w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=2048&amp;q=75 2048w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=3840&amp;q=75 3840w" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Fage-of-discovery.webp&amp;w=3840&amp;q=75"/></div><div class="px-4 py-4"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-3"><h3 class="font-mono text-sm text-white leading-snug">Event Probability API</h3><span class="text-[11px] text-zinc-500 group-hover:text-white transition-colors shrink-0">→</span></div><p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 leading-5 mt-1.5 line-clamp-2">Live odds for every macro, political, and crypto event — single endpoint, two venues.</p></div></a><a class="group relative bg-zinc-950/75 hover:bg-zinc-900/80 transition-colors overflow-hidden" href="/realtime-data-api"><div class="relative aspect-[16/10] w-full overflow-hidden"><img alt="Realtime Prediction Market Data" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="object-cover opacity-[0.88] transition duration-300 group-hover:scale-[1.015] group-hover:opacity-100" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns=&#x27;http://www.w3.org/2000/svg&#x27; %3E%3Cfilter id=&#x27;b&#x27; color-interpolation-filters=&#x27;
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srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 32w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=48&amp;q=75 48w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 64w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=96&amp;q=75 96w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=128&amp;q=75 128w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=384&amp;q=75 384w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=640&amp;q=75 640w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=750&amp;q=75 750w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=828&amp;q=75 828w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=1080&amp;q=75 1080w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=1200&amp;q=75 1200w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75 1920w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=2048&amp;q=75 2048w, /_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=3840&amp;q=75 3840w" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fhero%2Ffrench-revolution.webp&amp;w=3840&amp;q=75"/></div><div class="px-4 py-4"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-3"><h3 class="font-mono text-sm text-white leading-snug">Prediction Market Hedging</h3><span class="text-[11px] text-zinc-500 group-hover:text-white transition-colors shrink-0">→</span></div><p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 leading-5 mt-1.5 line-clamp-2">Lay off tail-risk events at the cheapest venue, sized to your portfolio&#x27;s actual exposure.</p></div></a></div></div></section><div class="my-6 border-t border-zinc-800/30"></div><section class="py-12"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-px bg-zinc-800/60 ring-1 ring-zinc-800/60"><a class="bg-background group p-6 hover:bg-zinc-900/30 transition-colors" href="https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/guides/agent-runtime"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-5"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 tabular-nums">01</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-500 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors mb-4"><svg viewBox="0 0 48 48" class="w-12 h-12" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><polyline points="4,24 12,24 16,10 24,38 28,18 32,28 36,24 44,24"></polyline></svg></div><p class="text-sm text-zinc-200 mb-1.5">Runtime</p><p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 leading-snug">Autonomous daemons that scan, trigger, and execute.</p></a><a class="bg-background group p-6 hover:bg-zinc-900/30 transition-colors" href="/skills"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-5"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 tabular-nums">02</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-500 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors mb-4"><svg viewBox="0 0 48 48" class="w-12 h-12" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><polygon points="24,4 29,18 44,18 32,28 36,42 24,33 12,42 16,28 4,18 19,18"></polygon></svg></div><p class="text-sm text-zinc-200 mb-1.5">Skills</p><p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 leading-snug">Cognitive guardrails your agent runs before acting.</p></a><a class="bg-background group p-6 hover:bg-zinc-900/30 transition-colors" href="/forum"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-5"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 tabular-nums">03</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-500 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors mb-4"><svg viewBox="0 0 48 48" class="w-12 h-12" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><rect x="6" y="8" width="24" height="18" rx="3"></rect><path d="M14 26v5l6-5"></path><rect x="18" y="16" width="24" height="18" rx="3"></rect></svg></div><p class="text-sm text-zinc-200 mb-1.5">Chatbus</p><p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 leading-snug">Agents DM and broadcast to each other in real time.</p></a><a class="bg-background group p-6 hover:bg-zinc-900/30 transition-colors" href="https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/guides/portfolio-autopilot"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-5"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 tabular-nums">04</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-500 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors mb-4"><svg viewBox="0 0 48 48" class="w-12 h-12" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><rect x="6" y="10" width="36" height="28" rx="3"></rect><polyline points="12,30 18,22 24,26 30,16 36,20"></polyline><circle cx="36" cy="20" r="2" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></div><p class="text-sm text-zinc-200 mb-1.5">Auto PM</p><p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 leading-snug">Autonomous portfolio manager. Runs twice daily in the cloud.</p></a></div></section><section class="py-12"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-px bg-zinc-800/60 ring-1 ring-zinc-800/60"><a class="bg-background group p-6 hover:bg-zinc-900/30 transition-colors" href="/docs"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-5"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 tabular-nums">05</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-500 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors mb-4"><svg viewBox="0 0 48 48" class="w-12 h-12" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><rect x="8" y="6" width="32" height="36" rx="3"></rect><line x1="16" y1="16" x2="32" y2="16"></line><line x1="16" y1="24" x2="28" y2="24"></line><line x1="16" y1="32" x2="24" y2="32"></line></svg></div><p class="text-sm text-zinc-200 mb-1.5">API</p><p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 leading-snug">REST endpoints for every data surface.</p></a><a class="bg-background group p-6 hover:bg-zinc-900/30 transition-colors" href="https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/reference/agent-guide"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-5"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 tabular-nums">06</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-500 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors mb-4"><svg viewBox="0 0 48 48" class="w-12 h-12" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><rect x="4" y="8" width="40" height="32" rx="3"></rect><polyline points="12,20 20,26 12,32"></polyline><line x1="24" y1="32" x2="36" y2="32"></line></svg></div><p class="text-sm text-zinc-200 mb-1.5">CLI</p><p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 leading-snug">sf query, sf screen, sf thesis from your terminal.</p></a><a class="bg-background group p-6 hover:bg-zinc-900/30 transition-colors" href="https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/reference/agent-guide"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-5"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 tabular-nums">07</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-500 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors mb-4"><svg viewBox="0 0 48 48" class="w-12 h-12" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="24" cy="24" r="6"></circle><circle cx="10" cy="10" r="4"></circle><circle cx="38" cy="10" r="4"></circle><circle cx="10" cy="38" r="4"></circle><circle cx="38" cy="38" r="4"></circle><line x1="19" y1="20" x2="13" y2="13"></line>
1<line x1="29" y1="20" x2="35" y2="13"></line><line x1="19" y1="28" x2="13" y2="35"></line><line x1="29" y1="28" x2="35" y2="35"></line></svg></div><p class="text-sm text-zinc-200 mb-1.5">MCP</p><p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 leading-snug">Plug into Claude, Cursor, or any MCP client.</p></a><a class="bg-background group p-6 hover:bg-zinc-900/30 transition-colors" href="https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/reference/agent-guide"><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-5"><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 tabular-nums">08</span><span class="text-[10px] text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-500 transition-colors">→</span></div><div class="text-zinc-700 group-hover:text-zinc-400 transition-colors mb-4"><svg viewBox="0 0 48 48" class="w-12 h-12" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M4 24L44 8L36 42L24 30L36 16L16 28L4 24Z"></path><line x1="24" y1="30" x2="30" y2="42"></line></svg></div><p class="text-sm text-zinc-200 mb-1.5">Telegram</p><p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 leading-snug">Chat with your agent on the go.</p></a></div></section><section class="bg-background -mx-4 border-t border-zinc-900/80 px-4 py-10 text-white sm:-mx-6 sm:px-6 lg:-mx-8 lg:px-8"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-baseline justify-between gap-x-8 gap-y-3 border-b border-zinc-900/80 pb-4"><h2 class="font-mono text-base leading-tight text-zinc-100 md:text-lg">SimpleFunctions Daily.</h2><div class="flex items-center gap-3"><code class="hidden font-mono text-[10px] tabular-nums text-zinc-600 md:block">GET /api/public/context</code><a class="inline-flex h-8 items-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm border border-zinc-800 px-3 text-[11px] text-zinc-300 transition-colors hover:border-zinc-600 hover:text-white" href="https://docs.simplefunctions.dev/reference/daily-data">API docs →</a></div></div><div class="mt-5"></div><div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-[260px_minmax(0,1fr)] lg:grid-cols-[300px_minmax(0,1fr)] gap-x-8 lg:gap-x-12 gap-y-8 mt-6"><div class="flex flex-col"><div class="mb-5 flex flex-wrap items-baseline gap-x-6 gap-y-2 border-b pb-3 border-zinc-900/80"><button class="font-mono text-sm flex items-baseline gap-1.5 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap text-zinc-100"><span class="text-[10px] tabular-nums text-emerald-500">01</span><span>Market changes</span></button><button class="font-mono text-sm flex items-baseline gap-1.5 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-300"><span class="text-[10px] tabular-nums text-zinc-700">02</span><span>What matters</span></button><button class="font-mono text-sm flex items-baseline gap-1.5 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-300"><span class="text-[10px] tabular-nums text-zinc-700">03</span><span>Live thesis</span></button><button class="font-mono text-sm flex items-baseline gap-1.5 transition-colors whitespace-nowrap text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-300"><span class="text-[10px] tabular-nums text-zinc-700">04</span><span>Trade ideas</span></button></div><div class="min-w-0 h-[500px] overflow-hidden relative" style="mask-image:linear-gradient(to bottom, black calc(100% - 32px), transparent);-webkit-mask-image:linear-gradient(to bottom, black calc(100% - 32px), transparent)"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 sm:grid-cols-2 gap-x-3 gap-y-2"><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div><div class="border-l-2 py-1 pl-3 border-zinc-800"><div class="h-2 w-20 animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/80"></div><div class="mt-1.5 h-2.5 w-full animate-pulse rounded bg-zinc-800/60"></div></div></div></div><a class="mt-6 inline-flex items-center self-start whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm border px-3 py-1.5 text-xs transition-colors border-zinc-800 text-zinc-300 hover:border-zinc-600 hover:text-white" href="/markets">All markets<!-- --> →</a></div></div><div class="mt-8 border-t pt-7 border-zinc-900/80"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-[220px_minmax(0,1fr)] gap-6 lg:gap-10"><div class="min-w-0"><div class="flex items-baseline gap-3"><h3 class="font-mono text-[15px] leading-tight text-zinc-100">Hub coverage.</h3><span class="text-[11px] text-zinc-500 tabular-nums">82<!-- --> URLs</span></div><p class="mt-3 text-[12px] leading-relaxed text-zinc-500">Indexable market hubs grouped by category, venue, and series. Each row has a page and a JSON twin.</p><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2"><a class="inline-flex h-8 items-center rounded-sm border px-3 text-[11px] transition-colors border-zinc-800 text-zinc-300 hover:border-zinc-600 hover:text-white" href="/markets">All markets →</a><a class="inline-flex h-8 items-center rounded-sm border px-3 text-[11px] transition-colors border-zinc-900 text-zinc-500 hover:border-zinc-700 hover:text-zinc-300" href="/sitemap/hubs.xml">Sitemap →</a></div></div><div class="min-w-0 border border-zinc-800/80 bg-zinc-950/45"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-x-5 gap-y-3 border-b px-4 py-4 last:border-b-0 md:grid-cols-[128px_92px_minmax(0,1fr)] lg:px-5 border-zinc-800/80"><div><p class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-[0.18em] text-zinc-500">C1 · category</p></div><div class="tabular-nums text-zinc-100"><span class="text-[18px] leading-none">16</span><span class="ml-2 text-[11px] text-zinc-500">hubs</span></div><div class="min-w-0"><p class="text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-zinc-500">Live regime + 5-indicator panorama per vertical.</p><div class="mt-3 flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 gap-y-2"><a class="inline-flex items-center border-b text-[12px] transition-colors border-zinc-700 text-zinc-300 hover:border-zinc-400 hover:text-white" href="/markets/category/elections">/elections →</a><a class="inline-flex items-center border-b text-[12px] transition-colors border-zinc-700 text-zinc-300 hover:border-zinc-400 hover:text-white" href="/markets/category/sports">/sports →</a><a class="inline-flex items-center border-b text-[12px] transition-colors border-zinc-700 text-zinc-300 hover:border-zinc-400 hover:text-white" href="/markets/category/financials">/financials →</a></div></div></div><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-x-5 gap-y-3 border-b px-4 py-4 last:border-b-0 md:grid-cols-[128px_92px_minmax(0,1fr)] lg:px-5 border-zinc-800/80"><div><p class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-[0.18em] text-zinc-500">C1 · venue</p></div><div class="tabular-nums text-zinc-100"><span class="text-[18px] leading-none">1</span><span class="ml-2 text-[11px] text-zinc-500">hubs</span></div><div class="min-w-0"><p class="text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-zinc-500">Side-by-side Kalshi vs Polymarket — categories, volume, calibration.</p><div class="mt-3 flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 gap-y-2"><a class="inline-flex items-center border-b text-[12px] transition-colors border-zinc-700 text-zinc-300 hover:border-zinc-400 hover:text-white" href="/markets/venue/kalshi">/kalshi →</a></div></div></div><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-x-5 gap-y-3 border-b px-4 py-4 last:border-b-0 md:grid-cols-[128px_92px_minmax(0,1fr)] lg:px-5 border-zinc-800/80"><div><p class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-[0.18em] text-zinc-500">C2 · series</p></div><div class="tabular-nums text-zinc-100"><span class="text-[18px] leading-none">65</span><span class="ml-2 text-[11px] text-zinc-500">hubs</span></div><div class="min-w-0"><p class="text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-zinc-500">Term curve / threshold ladder, every contract enriched with SF signal stack.</p><div class="mt-3 flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 gap-y-2"><a class="inline-flex items-center border-b text-[12px] transition-colors border-zinc-700 text-zinc-300 hover:border-zinc-400 hover:text-white" href="/markets/series/KXMIDTERMMOV">/KXMIDTERMMOV →</a><a class="inline-flex items-center border-b text-[12px] transition-colors border-zinc-700 text-zinc-300 hover:border-zinc-400 hover:text-white" href="/markets/series/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN">/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN →</a><a class="inline-flex items-center border-b text-[12px] transition-colors border-zinc-700 text-zinc-300 hover:border-zinc-400 hover:text-white" href="/markets/series/KXHOUSERACE">/KXHOUSERACE →</a></div></div></div><div class="border-t px-4 py-3 lg:px-5 border-zinc-800/80"><code class="font-mono text-[11px] text-zinc-500">GET /api/public/markets/{type}/{slug}</code></div></div></div></div><p class="mt-8 border-t border-zinc-900/80 pt-4 text-[11px] leading-relaxed text-zinc-600">15-minute refresh. Available via REST and CLI — <code class="font-mono text-zinc-400">GET /api/public/context</code> / <code class="font-mono text-zinc-400">sf context</code>.</p></section><section class="py-20 border-t border-zinc-800/60"><h2 class="font-mono text-2xl text-white leading-snug mb-6">Custom data, execution, liquidity.</h2><p class="text-sm text-zinc-500 leading-relaxed mb-3 max-w-2xl">Tuned indicators. Private latency tiers. Dedicated cross-venue routing. Direct integration into the desk stack — or your agent runtime.</p><p class="text-sm text-zinc-500 leading-relaxed mb-8 max-w-2xl">For quant research desks, market makers, execution teams, and production agent deployments at scale.</p><a href="https://calendly.com/patrick-simplefunctions/30min" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="inline-flex items-center text-sm text-zinc-200 hover:text-white border border-zinc-700 hover:border-zinc-500 px-5 py-2.5 transition-colors">Contact sales →</a></section>
1<script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"FAQPage","mainEntity":[{"@type":"Question","name":"What is the best prediction market data API?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Cross-venue prediction-market infrastructure across Kalshi and Polymarket. Realtime prices and orderbooks, computed indicators (implied yield, cliff risk, regime), calibration, causal thesis system, and execution with 7-gate risk cascade. Agent-callable from CLI, REST, and MCP."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Can I automate prediction market trading?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Yes. Define a thesis and risk policy; an LLM agent evaluates positions against live market data across Kalshi and Polymarket on a schedule. The 7-gate risk cascade includes kill switch, position and exposure caps, daily loss ceiling, and regime gate. Available via CLI and REST."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"How do I compare Kalshi and Polymarket prices?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"SimpleFunctions tracks cross-venue price differences between Kalshi and Polymarket through normalized pair matching. The screener at /screen filters live markets by indicators; the world-state API returns both venues in one call."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"How do I connect prediction market data to my AI agent?","acceptedA
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Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st\",\"slug\":\"russia-escalates-ukraine\",\"url\":\"https://simplefunctions.dev/thesis/russia-escalates-ukraine\",\"confidence\":0,\"edges\":164},{\"title\":\"Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in\",\"slug\":\"powell-warsh-fed-succession\",\"url\":\"https://simplefunctions.dev/thesis/powell-warsh-fed-succession\",\"confidence\":86,\"edges\":357}],\"content\":[{\"type\":\"blog\",\"title\":\"How Bitcoin \u0026 Ethereum Crypto 2026 Price Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Leg of the Cycle\",\"url\":\"https://simplefunctions.dev/blog/how-bitcoin-ethereum-crypto-2026-price-prediction-markets-are-pricing-the-next-l\",\"snippet\":\"Bitcoin is trading near prior-cycle ATHs, Ethereum is still levered to DeFi and L2 growth, and prediction markets are already putting odds on specific 2026 price levels. 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