https://willsmithte.com/assets/canucks-24-overperform-content-CD9rMc-3.js

1import{j as e}from"./chunk-UH6JLGW7-BoSQQryS.js";import{B as r,b as h,a as c}from"./blog-components-CLE3so-8.js";import{b as W}from"./typecheck-DCab8Gwk.js";import{e as N}from"./types-3uVy4L6Q.js";import{D as m,c as o}from"./data-table-Dx24HvgM.js";import{c as k}from"./createLucideIcon-C21ragUh.js";import{a as B,C as x}from"./chevron-up-2UgX04Z8.js";import"./utils-D64OaFpV.js";import"./bundle-mjs-BTGVH9Kg.js";import"./button-CDpc41u0.js";import"./index-BbtEPRmd.js";import"./index-C2sCW7CK.js";import"./table-BWenqaV_.js";/**
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4 * This source code is licensed under the ISC license.
5 * See the LICENSE file in the root directory of this source tree.
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6return s.forEach(n=>{Object.entries(T(n)).forEach(([i,t])=>{a[i]=(a[i]||0)+t})}),a}const D=Object.entries(M(P)).sort((s,a)=>a[1]-s[1]),g=D.filter(([s])=>d(s)==="West"),f=D.filter(([s])=>d(s)==="East");function T(s){const a={};return["Eastern Conference Wild Cards","Western Conference Wild Cards"].forEach(n=>{s[n].forEach(i=>a[i]=1)}),["Atlantic Division","Metropolitan Division","Central Division","Pacific Division"].forEach(n=>{s[n].forEach((i,t)=>a[i]=4-t)}),a[s["Conference Champions"].East]=6,a[s["Conference Champions"].West]=6,a[s["Stanley Cup Champion"]]=8,a}N(["Vancouver Canucks","Edmonton Oilers","Calgary Flames","Los Angeles Kings","Anaheim Ducks","San Jose Sharks","Seattle Kraken","Arizona Coyotes","Chicago Blackhawks","St. Louis Blues","Colorado Avalanche","Minnesota Wild","Dallas Stars","Winnipeg Jets","Nashville Predators","Columbus Blue Jackets","Pittsburgh Penguins","Washington Capitals","Philadelphia Flyers","New York Rangers","New York Islanders","New Jersey Devils","Boston Bruins","Buffalo Sabres","Toronto Maple Leafs","Ottawa Senators","Detroit Red Wings","Montreal Canadiens","Tampa Bay Lightning","Florida Panthers","Carolina Hurricanes","Vegas Golden Knights"]);function d(s){switch(s){case"Vancouver Canucks":case"Edmonton Oilers":case"Calgary Flames":case"Los Angeles Kings":case"Anaheim Ducks":case"San Jose Sharks":case"Seattle Kraken":case"Arizona Coyotes":case"Chicago Blackhawks":case"St. Louis Blues":case"Colorado Avalanche":case"Minnesota Wild":case"Dallas Stars":case"Winnipeg Jets":case"Nashville Predators":case"Columbus Blue Jackets":return"West";case"Pittsburgh Penguins":case"Washington Capitals":case"Philadelphia Flyers":case"New York Rangers":case"New York Islanders":case"New Jersey Devils":case"Boston Bruins":case"Buffalo Sabres":case"Toronto Maple Leafs":case"Ottawa Senators":case"Detroit Red Wings":case"Montreal Canadiens":case"Tampa Bay Lightning":case"Florida Panthers":case"Carolina Hurricanes":case"Vegas Golden Knights":return"East";default:W(s)}}const C=[{teamName:"New York Rangers",points:114,wins:55,losses:23,otl:4},{teamName:"Carolina Hurricanes",points:111,wins:52,losses:23,otl:7},{teamName:"Florida Panthers",points:110,wins:52,losses:24,otl:6},{teamName:"Boston Bruins",points:109,wins:47,losses:20,otl:15},{teamName:"Toronto Maple Leafs",points:102,wins:46,losses:26,otl:10},{teamName:"Tampa Bay Lightning",points:98,wins:45,losses:29,otl:8},{teamName:"New York Islanders",points:94,wins:39,losses:27,otl:16},{teamName:"Washington Capitals",points:91,wins:40,losses:31,otl:11},{teamName:"Detroit Red Wings",points:91,wins:41,losses:32,otl:9},{teamName:"Pittsburgh Penguins",points:88,wins:38,losses:32,otl:12},{teamName:"Philadelphia Flyers",points:87,wins:38,losses:33,otl:11},{teamName:"Buffalo Sabres",points:84,wins:39,losses:37,otl:6},{teamName:"New Jersey Devils",points:81,wins:38,losses:39,otl:5},{teamName:"Ottawa Senators",points:78,wins:37,losses:41,otl:4},{teamName:"Montreal Canadiens",points:76,wins:30,losses:36,otl:16},{teamName:"Columbus Blue Jackets",points:66,wins:27,losses:43,otl:12},{teamName:"Dallas Stars",points:113,wins:52,losses:21,otl:9},{teamName:"Winnipeg Jets",points:110,wins:52,losses:24,otl:6},{teamName:"Vancouver Canucks",points:109,wins:50,losses:23,otl:9},{teamName:"Colorado Avalanche",points:107,wins:50,losses:25,otl:7},{teamName:"Edmonton Oilers",points:104,wins:49,losses:27,otl:6},{teamName:"Nashville Predators",points:99,wins:47,losses:30,otl:5},{teamName:"Los Angeles Kings",points:99,wins:44,losses:27,otl:11},{teamName:"Vegas Golden Knights",points:98,wins:45,losses:29,otl:8},{teamName:"St. Louis Blues",points:92,wins:43,losses:33,otl:6},{teamName:"Minnesota Wild",points:87,wins:39,losses:34,otl:9},{teamName:"Calgary Flames",points:81,wins:38,losses:39,otl:5},{teamName:"Seattle Kraken",points:81,wins:34,losses:35,otl:13},{teamName:"Arizona Coyotes",points:77,wins:36,losses:41,otl:5},{teamName:"Anaheim Ducks",points:59,wins:27,losses:50,otl:5},{teamName:"Chicago Blackhawks",points:52,wins:23,losses:53,otl:6},{teamName:"San Jose Sharks",points:47,wins:19,losses:54,otl:9}];C.sort((s,a)=>a.points-s.points);const E=C.filter(s=>d(s.teamName)==="West"),b=C.filter(s=>d(s.teamName)==="East");function Z(){return e.jsxs(e.Fragment,{children:[e.jsxs(r,{children:["It's all over. The Canucks had a great run, but ultimately couldn't close out the Oilers. Even though it stings that they came ",e.jsx("b",{children:"this"})," ","close to a Conference Finals appearance, it's hard to be disappointed 

6with the end result. Vancouver came into the season with the goal of sneaking into the playoffs (",e.jsx(h,{external:!0,href:"https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/vancouver-canucks-slow-talk-of-playoffs-stress-need-to-grow-and-develop-over-quick-fixes-1.2018573",children:'"if everything goes right"'}),")."]}),e.jsx(r,{children:"So how improbable was this run? Where did the pundits have the Canucks before the season? I want to quantify their overperformance."}),e.jsxs(r,{children:["Fortunately, NHL.com themselves have 16 writers make"," ",e.jsx(h,{external:!0,href:"https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-predictions-for-2023-24-nhl-season",children:"detailed predictions"})," ","before the season. These can serve as a proxy for general analyst sentiment. We can rank them by assigning a score to each prediction (wild card team, division winner, etc.)."]}),e.jsx("div",{className:"flex flex-col md:flex-row gap-2",children:e.jsxs("div",{className:"flex-1",children:[e.jsx(c,{children:"West Predictions"}),e.jsx(v,{data:g})]})}),e.jsx(r,{className:"mt-4",children:"So they were picked 7th in the west, thanks to a score of 7 (5 wildcard predictions, 1 3rd-place). How do the picks compare to reality?"}),e.jsx("div",{className:"flex flex-col md:flex-row gap-2",children:e.jsxs("div",{className:"flex-1",children:[e.jsx(c,{children:"West Standings"}),e.jsx(w,{data:E.sort((s,a)=>a.points-s.points).slice(0,10),predictions:g})]})}),e.jsx(r,{className:"mt-6",children:"The Canucks definitely overperformed with a rank diff of +4, but clearly the biggest standout is the Jets, climbing 9 spots to finish 2nd. They were picked by just 3 analysts, and all were to finish as a wildcard. What about the East?"}),e.jsx("div",{className:"flex flex-col md:flex-row gap-2",children:e.jsxs("div",{className:"flex-1",children:[e.jsx(c,{children:"East Predictions"}),e.jsx(v,{data:f})]})}),e.jsx("div",{className:"h-6"}),e.jsx("div",{className:"flex flex-col md:flex-row gap-2",children:e.jsxs("div",{className:"flex-1",children:[e.jsx(c,{children:"East Standings"}),e.jsx(w,{data:b.sort((s,a)=>a.points-s.points).slice(0,10),predictions:f})]})}),e.jsxs(r,{className:"mt-6",children:["The East is all over the place. The Leafs took a tumble, with 1 writer actually picking them to win it all (looking at you"," ",e.jsx(h,{external:!0,href:"https://x.com/WDouglasNHL",children:"William Douglas"}),"), and the Panthers exceeding expectations by far. Florida were picked at highest as 2nd in the Atlantic, and completely left off 8 of the ballots."]}),e.jsx(r,{children:"So the Canucks made a great run, and certainly overperformed, but they weren't the only ones. If anything, all this shows is the unpredictability of the NHL (or the quality of NHL.com's writers' picks?). I wonder how this compares to the preseason picks for the NBA..."})]})}function v({data:s}){const a=s.map(([n,i],t)=>({teamName:n,score:i,rank:t+1}));return e.jsx("div",{className:"max-w-[500px] w-full",children:e.jsx(m,{columns:L,data:a,defaultSorting:[{id:"score",desc:!0}],getRowClassName:n=>n.original.teamName==="Vancouver Canucks"?"bg-[#00205B] text-white":""})})}const L=[{accessorKey:"teamName",header:o("Team")},{accessorKey:"score",header:o("Score"),cell:({row:s,getValue:a,column:n})=>e.jsx("div",{children:a()})},{accessorKey:"rank",header:o("Rank"),cell:({row:s,getValue:a,column:n})=>e.jsx("div",{children:a()})}];function w({data:s,predictions:a}){const i={data:s.map((l,p)=>{const u=a.findIndex(([S])=>S===l.teamName);return{...l,rank:p+1,diff:u===-1?0:u-p}}),defaultSorting:[{id:"points",desc:!0}],getRowClassName:l=>l.original.teamName==="Vancouver Canucks"?"bg-[#00205B] text-white":""},t=y.filter(l=>["teamName","points","rank","diff"].includes(l.accessorKey??""));return e.jsxs("div",{className:"w-full max-w-[800px]",children:[e.jsx(m,{className:"md:hidden max-w-100vw",columns:t,...i}),e.jsx(m,{className:"hidden md:block",columns:y,...i})]})}const y=[{accessorKey:"teamName",header:o("Team")},{accessorKey:"wins",header:o("Wins"),cell:({row:s,getValue:a,column:n})=>e.jsx("div",{children:a()})},{accessorKey:"losses",header:o("Losses"),cell:({row:s,getValue:a,column:n})=>e.jsx("div",{children:a()})},{accessorKey:"otl",header:o("OTL"),cell:({row:s,getValue:a,column:n})=>e.jsx("div",{children:a()})},{accessorKey:"points",header:o("Points"),cell:({row:s,getValue:a,column:n})=>e.jsx("div",{children:a()})},{accessorKey:"rank",header:o("Rank"),cell:({row:s,getValue:a,column:n})=>e.jsx("div",{children:a()})},{accessorKey:"diff",header:o("Diff"),cell:({row:s,getValue:a,column:n})=>e.jsxs("div",{className:"flex gap-2 items-center",children:[e.jsx(K,{diff:a()}),e.jsx("p",{children:Math.abs(a())})]})}];function K({diff:s}){return s===0?e.jsx(A,{className:"h-6 w-6 text-gray-400"}):s>0?e.jsx(B,{className:"h-10 w-6 text-[#00FB02]"}):e.jsx(x,{className:"h-10 w-6 text-[#B40007]"})}export{Z as default};